Swansea in trouble: article

[summitclaret]

No it's not - we could have spent £100 million last summer in transfer fees and still been 3 points from relegation. Seems you would prefer the club to spend, spend, spend, eventually go down and be in a mess where as others prefer the sensible, cautious approach to ensure the club is sustainable into the future.

I have said nothing of the sort. Please don't make things up. I would be furious if we spent anything like 100m net in one season. Even if we had it we could not afford the wages.

All I have mentioned is 2 players within our wage structure, bearing in mind we were in the EL. Several responses to such a reasonable proposal have been way ott. .

I want the club to be run exactly as per your last sentence. Atm we are being too cautious and gambling our PL status.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

I have said nothing of the sort. Please don't make things up. I would be furious if we spent anything like 100m net in one season. Even if we had it we could not afford the wages.

All I have mentioned is 2 players within our wage structure, bearing in mind we were in the EL. Several responses to such a reasonable proposal have been way ott. .

I want the club to be run exactly as per your last sentence. Atm we are being too cautious and gambling our PL status.

Every club from about outside of the usual top 6 or so gamble their PL status with their transfers, managerial appointments etc.
That's an absolute fact.

It's also a fact that 3 teams will get relegated each season regardless of what they spend.
Fulham have spent £100 million and I can't remember the last time they were out of the bottom 3.

Out of interest, what amount of money spent would've appeased you across the last two transfer windows?

[Dark Cloud]

It IS possible that we may have been too cautious and are gambling with our PL future and I suppose we'll know the answer to that in the next 3 months, but as the Swansea story shows, there isn't always a correlation between spending big and staying up and Swansea aren't the only club to bet the ranch and lose heavily. Also see Fulham.

[Chester Perry]

I know how accounts work thank you.

Think you are in for a big surprise when our accounts for 18/19 come out in just over a year. Howver maybe the likes of royboy could give us an estimate?

Intrigued by this when we haven't yet seen the 17/18 accounts, but let's play

tv money will likely be less than £110m unless current form improves -
Match Day Income will have a modest Increase - Europa League quali matches plus corporate ticket increases lets be generous and say £7m
Commercial should Increase - new Shirt deal etc let's say £16m (again Generous)
Player sales and Loans - again generous but let's say £10m (Vokes plus Wells, Walters and Dunne on loan)

so we are seeing close to £143m Revenue

Wages will be in the £75 to £80m
Player Amortisation will be at a record high but we will be consevative and say £30m
we know th club had committed £11m to infrastructure - let's be conservative and say £5m was spent in the current financial year (even with the overruns on the new stands)

that is a very conservative £110m in costs leaving no more than £35m in profit before tax and probably quite a bit less

[summitclaret]

We spent around 30m less say net 6m for sam. So 24m. Given the extra income from finishing 7th, I would have thought an extra 25m for 2 more players would have been fine. Written off over say 4 years that's about an extra 6m a year before wages. However we are surely expecting a keeper to go in the summer at a min of say 5m for Hart and possibly 20m plus for pope. Several others will go in the summer also.

That would be nowhere near putting us in trouble when we gave lots of other saleable assets imo.

[elwaclaret]

How many of the posters who demand transfers, it seems any transfer are the same posters who are amongst the first to moan when signings don't work out for whatever reason?

Everyone who has even a passing interest in BFC surely knows the players' rolls we want to strengthen. If those who are paid to run the club deem the right players are either too much of a commitment/gamble or at a price it might be worth hanging on to reach a higher branch next time, then I'm happy for them to steer on the side of caution. Some people on here seem almost incapable of deep rational thought. Anyone who thinks our crew isn't doing a good job only needs to look at how many clubs our size are staring administration in the face after life in the PL. Yes we all want to improve the squad but only when its right for BFC not as a five-minute 'fix' for the fans wanting to see a new face

[Vegas Claret]

Teasdale out

[summitclaret]

Intrigued by this when we haven't yet seen the 17/18 accounts, but let's play

tv money will likely be less than £110m unless current form improves -
Match Day Income will have a modest Increase - Europa League quali matches plus corporate ticket increases lets be generous and say £7m
Commercial should Increase - new Shirt deal etc let's say £16m (again Generous)
Player sales and Loans - again generous but let's say £10m (Vokes plus Wells, Walters and Dunne on loan)

so we are seeing close to £143m Revenue

Wages will be in the £75 to £80m
Player Amortisation will be at a record high but we will be consevative and say £30m
we know th club had committed £11m to infrastructure - let's be conservative and say £5m was spent in the current financial year (even with the overruns on the new stands)

that is a very conservative £110m in costs leaving no more than £35m in profit before tax and probably quite a bit less

I can't remember tba cash in hand from the last published accounts but lets say it was 40m. We are still awaiting the following year's accounts but I seem to remember predictions around 40m profit. If this is in the right ballpark, then we could be up to at least 120m cash in hand when the 18/19 accounts are published. ..

I have not used any science and am happy to be proved wrong. However if wr go down because we only got 12 points in ths first 19 games it will be mainly because of a poie transfer window given that we knew about Defour and brady in July.

[Chester Perry]

Summit you are miles off re cash in hand and as far as I am aware that is never parked and left to be added to previous/subsequent years

https://twitter.com/swissramble/status/ ... 28?lang=en" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; - see the first diagram

[Buxtonclaret]

Strange one was James. All set to sign for Leeds in January but Swansea pulled the plug at the 11th hour leaving Leeds no time to get anyone else in. I get the impression they must have got the nod from another club that they'd pay a lot more for him in the summer.

Doubt it's us then.
First time I've seen him, and only the one half.
But he ran from box to box, leaving three chasing defenders with pace to spare, and then showed a lot of composure scoring.
Lots of other good things he did too.

[claretblue]

[quote="Buxtonclaret"]leaving three chasing defenders with pace to spare, and then showed a lot of composure scoring [quote]

James playing well for both Swansea + Clarets...never happen!

[ClaretTony]

Atm we are being too cautious and gambling our PL status.

That's your view - I don't agree.

[Spijed]

I have said nothing of the sort. Please don't make things up. I would be furious if we spent anything like 100m net in one season. Even if we had it we could not afford the wages.

All I have mentioned is 2 players within our wage structure, bearing in mind we were in the EL. Several responses to such a reasonable proposal have been way ott. .

I want the club to be run exactly as per your last sentence. Atm we are being too cautious and gambling our PL status.

It only looks like we are struggling because of so many changes during the first half of the season - Joe Hart, Europa, five at the back etc.

As we are now playing a settled side we currently look a very good bet to survive.

[tiger76]

Which signings in August would have vastly improved our league placing,very few i'd wager,yes squad depth is welcome but equally a larger squad can cause unrest if people aren't getting regular game time.

The board are natural cautious but it's for a valid reason if we suffer relegation and have a hefty wage bill to cover,our profits from the PL seasons can be quickly eroded,yes the club do have saleable assets but in the worst case scenario if the likes of Tarks and Pope and perhaps even McNeil where sold,it wouldn't take long for the whingers to complain,about selling the crown jewels.

The reality is our current standing is a lower mid table PL team,sure we finished 7th last season but that was a one-off,just as Leicester storming to the title was,they nearly fell through the trap door the following season despite spending a good wedge.

[Bin Ont Turf]

The black cloud chasers on here and the last board, wouldn't listen when they were going on about how we should be like Swansea and follow their model.

A crystal ball was not needed.

[Tall Paul]

I can't remember tba cash in hand from the last published accounts but lets say it was 40m. We are still awaiting the following year's accounts but I seem to remember predictions around 40m profit. If this is in the right ballpark, then we could be up to at least 120m cash in hand when the 18/19 accounts are published. ..

I have not used any science and am happy to be proved wrong. However if wr go down because we only got 12 points in ths first 19 games it will be mainly because of a poie transfer window given that we knew about Defour and brady in July.

Your starting point is twice as much cash as the accounts show and, as you said you understand accounts, I'm sure you're aware that profit isn't the same thing as cashflow. No way will the club be carrying those sort of cash reserves.

[Stayingup]

Sorry but what needs sorting out? We have stayed up, finished 7th and most likely stayed up again through the last 4 transfer windows. What needs fixing and where should our club be aiming?

Dont we need a new left back?

[Royboyclaret]

I know how accounts work thank you.

Think you are in for a big surprise when our accounts for 18/19 come out in just over a year. Howver maybe the likes of royboy could give us an estimate?

Not sure there's any mileage in looking as far ahead as Jun'19 and in any case a serious crystal ball would be required to predict so far ahead. Both CT and Spice have conceded that recruitment in the summer of last year should have been better, so let's take a look at the potential positioning of Cash flow at that point.

Opening Cash at Bank........£20.4m........at Jul'17.
Forecast Operating Profit year to Jun'18...........£28m.
Amortisation & Dep'n.............£30m.

Operating Activities for the year.........£58m

Player Registrations - Sales..........£36m.........(Keane £30m less 25% to United & Gray £18m less 20% to Luton).
Player Registrations - Purchases.........£35m........(Wood, Cork, Wells & Walters).
Taxation..........£3m.
Capital Expenditure.........£11m......Gawthorpe Barnfield.

So, £20m + £28m + £30m + £36m - £35m - £3m - £11m.

A potential closing Cash Balance of £65m at Jun'18.......and the highest in our entire history.

Certainly sufficient to give the Board food for thought in terms of financing any incoming deals during the summer.
Possible of course that the transfer purchase figure above may have been structured over stage payments but the same would also apply to transfer sales.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Dont we need a new left back?

Nvm, misread original post.

Yeah we need to bin off Taylor

[dsr]

We've been extremely lucky with the emergence of McNeil this season. And the people claiming getting rid of Vokes was a great move let's not judge it yet eh? If Wood or Barnes get injured at some point then it suddenly doesn't look quite so clever.

It's a bit of a backwards viewpoint to put injuries down to incompetence, and the development of players down to luck. Most people would reckon it was the other way round.

[ClaretTony]

Player Registrations - Sales..........£36m.........(Keane £30m less 25% to United & Gray £18m less 20% to Luton)

I hope we haven't given Luton 20%

We had to pay Brentford extra when we stayed up in 2017 and Luton got a percentage of that. However, when we sold him, Luton confirmed there was no more money to come from the Gray to Burnley deal so perhaps that meant there was no payment from us to Brentford. The promotion and staying up fees took the transfer of him to £9 million.

[AndyClaret]

That's your view - I don't agree.

So when the manager says that he wanted 3 more in the summer he's lying ?

[mdd2]

Is summit really talking of a massive profit this season?
Outgoing transfer money was of the order of £30million and nothing in until Sam left.
Income from Sky will be £105 million if we are lucky this season.
Any profit will be small surely?

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Is summit really talking of a massive profit this season?
Outgoing transfer money was of the order of £30million and nothing in until Sam left.
Income from Sky will be £105 million if we are lucky this season.
Any profit will be small surely?

They're on about next season, but they're still going to be out by a reasonable amount.

£150 million in the bank is never going to happen when the numbers are released in 2020 for this season.

[ClaretTony]

So when the manager says that he wanted 3 more in the summer he's lying ?

Nothing to do with what I posted

[SGr]

Dan James is certainly one we should be looking at, especially if Swansea end up needing to sell.

It makes sense, so let’s see if we’re feeling up for a bit of shrewd business.

[ClaretTony]

Dan James is certainly one we should be looking at, especially if Swansea end up needing to sell.

It makes sense, so let’s see if we’re feeling up for a bit of shrewd business.

I think I posted further up the thread that I'm certain they've had the nod from a club on James because he'd all but signed for Leeds on 31st Jan and they pulled the plug right at the last minute.

[TVC15]

There is no doubt that the club could easily have afforded to spend more money in the last 2 or 3 windows and clearly we were trying to.
There are always a few numpties who seem to think income equates to profit but the vast majority of fans are reasonable happy with our cautious approach but would like us to have spent £20m to £30m more...which would still be well within the “cautious” definition.

[Bfc]

The clubs board maybe building up some of the savings to consider spending on possibly putting another tier on the Bob Lord stand, or demolishing and replacing the Cricket Field end stand.
I don’t imagine the Turf will be left in its present condition for another 5 to 10 years of possible premiership football, without the need to spend on outdated stands.

[SGr]

I think I posted further up the thread that I'm certain they've had the nod from a club on James because he'd all but signed for Leeds on 31st Jan and they pulled the plug right at the last minute.

Both sides seem to blame each other for what happened. Maybe there was exterior interest but I’ve always got the impression someone (or even both) tried to alter terms last minute.

I don’t buy the idea that Swansea refused to answer the phone for hours, though, as Leeds end has tried to make out.

[Bosscat]

Where on earth do you get the impression in your first para from? If someone writes we need to spend a little bit more to increase the odds of staying up why do you interpret that as buying Messi? Guess who is really talking bollocking.

The 1st Paragraph was being sarcastic ffs....