Next five games will define the season

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cricketfieldclarets
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Next five games will define the season

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:51 pm

Looking at the run of games before 'THAT' run in, it looks like we have a huge chance to secure our future at this level for another year.

We can probably expect to get nothing as usual at Anfield this week (although stranger things have happened, especially with them under more pressure even than us!).

But next week could be key. We have a winnable fixture. Whereas both sides below us have no fixture. So we could reopen a good lead.

Brighton are the ones that could be in trouble - two cancelled fixtures and some real tough games!
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cricketfieldclarets
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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:52 pm

Brightons run looks particularly tough.
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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by tiger76 » Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:39 pm

Brighton will be fine unfortunately,if they had dropped 2 points against Huddersfield it might have been different,but that late winner gives them breathing space,and their home form is solid enough,you can't even rule out them getting a result at Wembley,Spurs might still be in the CL at this stage.

If we had those fixtures i'd expect points,we picked up 4 at home to Saints and Bouremouth and nearly nicked a draw against Spurs,and that doesn't include the Cardiff game which they'll still have as insurance.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by conyoviejo » Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:43 pm

Crystal palace ,Bournemouth and Leicester aren't out of the mix yet..

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Ilkley claret » Mon Mar 04, 2019 3:53 pm

We need to beat Cardiff and that's us safe.
I can't see them getting more than 5 points to be honest.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:12 pm

conyoviejo wrote:Crystal palace ,Bournemouth and Leicester aren't out of the mix yet..
the frustrating thing is we could have put newcastle and palace right in it.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Reckoner » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:32 pm

Ilkley claret wrote:We need to beat Cardiff and that's us safe.
I can't see them getting more than 5 points to be honest.
Agree - very unlikely Cardiff would make up 8 points from their other fixtures

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by FCBurnley » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:32 pm

Hudds and Fulham gone. Last spot is between us Saints and Cardiff. The manner of the losses at Newcastle and v Palace are worrying. I think we have the hardest run in but we have the points on the board. Lose to Cardiff and we could easily go down.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Bosscat » Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:35 pm

Reckoner wrote:Agree - very unlikely Cardiff would make up 8 points from their other fixtures
Hate saying this but never say never... Remember Leicester in the season we went back down 2015....

They were in a far worse position than Caerdydd

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Reckoner » Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:09 pm

Yes I dont think guaranteed but it is very unlikely (as Leicester's run of form was that year and Fulham a few years before).

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by jurek » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:15 pm

Think the Cardiff v West Ham game may well define their season.
If they lose that then I can't see them getting enough points to stay up.
Even more so if we beat them.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:28 pm

We need three wins from 4 game effectively.

Then hope for an odd point in the last four games.

This could go to the last game of the season..

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Spijed » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:33 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:We need three wins from 4 game effectively.

Then hope for an odd point in the last four games.

This could go to the last game of the season..
If we need another three wins that'll mean Cardiff needing a further five, considering they are two behind us at the moment.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Bosscat » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:34 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:We need three wins from 4 game effectively.

Then hope for an odd point in the last four games.

This could go to the last game of the season..
That would mean Caerdydd would need to win at least 5 from 9 games (and draw 2 of the other 4).... they have won 7 from 29....

But like I said in an earlier post never say never...

Lets just get behind our boys ..... its in our hands no bugger elses....
Last edited by Bosscat on Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by BFCmaj » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:35 pm

I'm still fuming about the 6 points we were robbed of by dodgy officials. I hope it doesn't come down to that!
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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by jrgbfc » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:41 pm

That lucky win down at Cardiff is looking absolutely massive now!

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by bfcmik » Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:52 pm

We are Burnley - we drop points we are expected to collect and win points we were expected to lose. We don't like making things easy :)

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:11 pm

Cardiff just lost Bamba for 9 months as well.

I also agree Cardiff have to go on an amazing run.

But a win for them on Sat and loss for us could spur on a side then 2 points behind us.

Hopefully we win and they lose.

But this could get very squeaky bum time.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Guich » Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:29 pm

I suspect we'll both lose next week; and Cardiff won't get anywhere near us in the next nine games.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:35 pm

Let’s hope your right.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by KateR » Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:38 pm

think our run in looks tough from now on so agree the Cardiff game could decide which one of the 2 goes & stays.

Southampton I think will be safe, while Brighton are on the edge as to whether they join us and Cardiff or go with N'castle & palace

simply can't take anything for granted, had hoped/wished we had lost to Spurs and won N'castle but...........

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by tiger76 » Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:40 pm

I tend to agree if they lose to West Ham their spirits will be dampened,i expect us to lose at Anfield,but as long as the gap remains 5 points i'll be happy.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by mdd2 » Tue Mar 05, 2019 4:43 pm

tiger76 wrote:I tend to agree if they lose to West Ham their spirits will be dampened,i expect us to lose at Anfield,but as long as the gap remains 5 points i'll be happy.
But when they beat WHU as we did and we lose to 'Pool then really will be squeaky bum times again. Can't see them throwing in the towel against he Hammers

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Spijed » Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:51 pm

mdd2 wrote:But when they beat WHU as we did and we lose to 'Pool then really will be squeaky bum times again. Can't see them throwing in the towel against he Hammers
If you read comments on their forum they looked like they'd thrown in the towel for the last three games.

Everton have looked clueless under Silva for a few weeks yet looked like world beaters against Cardiff.

They seem to think everything that's gone on with Sala has left Neil Warnock somewhat broken.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Spijed » Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:53 pm

I could have sworn we had nine games left, not five.

Obviously the performances against Man U. & Spurs don't count as to whether we can get points against the likes of Chelsea, Man City, Everton & Arsenal.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by ElectroClaret » Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:02 pm

jrgbfc wrote:That lucky win down at Cardiff is looking absolutely massive now!
As does the unexpected victory over Spurs.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by kaptin1 » Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:03 pm

Those last four fixtures are tough for us but we did pick 7pts up from the equivalent fixtures last year - wins against Chelsea and Everton away and a draw at home against Citeh

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Spijed » Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:05 pm

kaptin1 wrote:Those last four fixtures are tough for us but we did pick 7pts up from the equivalent fixtures last year - wins against Chelsea and Everton away and a draw at home against Citeh
Last season Huddersfield got draws against Chelsea & Man City. There are a few really unexpected results towards the end of the season.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by kaptin1 » Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:06 pm

Personally fancy us at home against Arsenal if push comes to shove

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by gtclaret » Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:17 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:We need three wins from 4 game effectively.

Then hope for an odd point in the last four games.

This could go to the last game of the season..
So you really think Cardiff are going to reach 38 points, just look at their fixtures. One win 2 draws will keep us up.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:46 pm

gtclaret wrote:So you really think Cardiff are going to reach 38 points, just look at their fixtures. One win 2 draws will keep us up.
This league throws up some real surprises at times.
If our players think what you do and don’t fight for every point , yes we could be in trouble.
I hope we are not.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by kaptin1 » Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:13 pm

The fewer matches there are to go the harder it becomes to predict the outcome based on statistical averages. Over a large sample size (say 10 matches) I would fairly confidently predict that Cardiff (based on their performances year to date) would probably average slightly less than 1pt per game. Without checking, I suspect this wouldn’t be too far out if you choose any 10 game run this season. But this could comprise of 2 wins in succession followed by 3 draws and 5 defeats ... giving 9pts from 10 games. However, if you look over any three match run (ie. a shorter period) in that series, it could be anything from 7pts (>2pts per game) to 0pts.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Ric_C » Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:52 pm

jrgbfc wrote:That lucky win down at Cardiff is looking absolutely massive now!
Yeah and I remember all the flippant comments on the match thread as well.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Ooogeorgeorgeoghani » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:09 pm

kaptin1 wrote:Personally fancy us at home against Arsenal if push comes to shove
I have a feeling about that game , 1 nil to us I thought it as soon as the fixtures came out , gooners nothing to play for and clarets fired up

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Spijed » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:09 pm

According the stats we have 7% chance of the drop:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... er-league/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by diamondpocket » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:42 am

I remember when Norwich last went down they had a similar run-in to ours with their last 4/5 games against the big boys. With 10 games to go they were fine and never looked in real danger but lost all their last 5 games and others sneaked points. Dont think they were in the relegation zone all season and went down on the last day of the season. It is crucial we get a couple of wins in the next 5 games and definitely beat Cardiff, 9 points should well be enough.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by vinrogue » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:50 am

My thoughts at the moment are simply to match or better Cardiff over our next 4 games and then when we play them we will probably only need a draw and we can look forward to the new season of only 19 homes games instead of 23, with those 19 being played at almost anytime apart from 3pm on a Saturday.....nurse my tablets

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Hipper » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:45 pm

kaptin1 wrote:Personally fancy us at home against Arsenal if push comes to shove
Handballs still allowed this season. Do you wish to reconsider? ;)

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Hipper » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:46 pm

Bosscat wrote: Lets just get behind our boys ..... its in our hands no bugger elses....
Should this be on the Michael Jackson thread? ;)

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Hipper » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:46 pm

We had it in our hands to define the season in our last two games and we blew it.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Bosscat » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:57 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol:
Hipper wrote:Should this be on the Michael Jackson thread? ;)
:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:44 pm

Cardiff winning and West Ham look ****. Watching the game and Cardiff working their socks off to keep them out.
WH look clueless today

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:22 pm

2-0 and should have been 3.
Results not going our way today

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by bfcjg » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:28 pm

We have to knuckle down and play with some flair instead of the predictable rubbish serves up in the last two games.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by ElectroClaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:31 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: WH look clueless today
The thing is that they're not particularly going for it. They've got 39 points.
Mentally, they're in Barbados. Or Benidorm. Or Margate....

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:35 pm

Putting more and more pressure on our game with Cardiff, something we don't need in this situation.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:55 pm

Every result went against us today and we have a very hard run in.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:57 pm

Guich wrote:I suspect we'll both lose next week; and Cardiff won't get anywhere near us in the next nine games.

???????????
Would you like to reconsider???

If we lose tomorrow that gives the Cardiff players massive hope.

Like I said, this ain’t over by any means.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by jurek » Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:07 pm

Said in earlier post (11) that the Cardiff v West Ham game
would define their season hoping they might lose it but alas they've gone and won it.
So only two points behind us now.

Can't see us getting anything from Liverpool tomorrow and if we lose our next home
game against Leicester then we'll start to twitch, me thinks.

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Re: Next five games will define the season

Post by Spijed » Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:09 pm

jurek wrote:Said in earlier post (11) that the Cardiff v West Ham game
would define their season hoping they might lose it but alas they've gone and won it.
So only two points behind us now.

Can't see us getting anything from Liverpool tomorrow and if we lose our next home
game against Leicester then we'll start to twitch, me thinks.

But Cardiff managed to win a game after a few abysmal performances. Why are we not capable of doing similar?

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