7th last season cant be all down to luck surely ?

[s6t9a2f3f]

was last year just "one of those things" as this year we probably will finish 16th, 17th or 18th - 2/3 promoted teams are struggling with fulham almost gone - but was last season all down to the team over performing most weeks ? luck at playing alot of teams at the right time ?
Seems with the investment level and the wage structure this seasons journey is more realistic to last season, last season must have just been "one of those things" you cant really explain except to say thats football !!!

[Colburn_Claret]

It wasnt, but the margins are very fine.
After Man U and Spurs, 2 good results against Newcastle and Palace and we could have been top half again. It's that close.

[jrgbfc]

This season I think we're about where we should be, last season was a complete freak.

[Tricky Trevor]

We now have all of last seasons side available for selection, except Defour.
I’d have loved to have seen them reunited for this end of season push but it’s not happening.
As well as Taylor and McNeil have done the Ward/Brady partnership was better. Bardsley has been consistently good but he rarely provides at the top end, Lowton warranted dropping at Xmas but he might be ready to go again. JBG has to come back in for the two upcoming home games.

[boatshed bill]

We were very poor from January 2018. But only the so-called snowflakes were aware of that.

[Tall Paul]

Variance or luck has a massive bearing on results over 38 games, so while it's not right to say it was all down to luck, it did play a massive part.

[Ric_C]

Biggest difference this season is that we are letting in a lot of self inflicted goals at key times.

The Palace game last week and the game today pretty much all the goals were the culmination of not doing the basics right, which is worrying.

[CombatClaret]

Every team/player must by definition have their best season. Last season was ours maybe?
George Boyd's was 2015
Leicester's was 2016
Burnley's was 2018?
etc etc

I look at Stoke, Villa, WBA etc littering the Championship with far richer owners and it shows how well we're doing given our means.
(Also I know we've won the league I'm talking relatively)

[agreenwood]

No. Last season was down to us have a good team, playing close to maximum, who were at it far more often than not.

We’ve been poor this season. That’s not luck either. The club has made mistakes and the momentum we had has largely been lost. Maybe we were always unlikely to finish in the top 7-8, but let’s not pretend that the fall this season is just the natural order of things and let the decision makers at the club completely off the hook.

[cricketfieldclarets]

You finish where you think you deserve to more often than not. And this year we will finish where we deserve to.

Still pisses me off how much we talk ourselves down, believed we didnt deserve to be in europe and acted in the transfer market that way.

To think our summer window was as bad as it was is still frustrating now. But to address it in January by signing Peter Crouch is abysmal.

Hopefuly our 8 game run in january is enough. But it definitely masked huge deficiencies especially in midfield.

Hopefuly this summer we realise we deserve to be here if we stay up and act like it in the window.

[jdrobbo]

We haven’t improved the starting seven.

Look at the eleven who played at Anfield.

[TheFamilyCat]

We overachieved last season.

This season we are nearer to our natural level but are underachieving.

[cricketfieldclarets]

We haven’t improved the starting seven.

Look at the eleven who played at Anfield.

Spot on.

Look how many teams have defended the league. Not many. And thats usually when they dont improve. They get comfortable. I heard an interview with someone (may have been Gary Neville on the barton podcast) and it talks about just that. How once players have achieved a certain thing thats it. Thats why Fergie always shipped out top names and still had success. He knew who was hungry amd who wasnt.

This season we should have been starting with 3 fresh players outfield. We have started with 0 prwtty much every week. Not good enough.

[Lancasterclaret]

And if we stay up, the fact we've dropped from 7th to 17th is a clear indication that the revamping of the squad can't be put off again.

We'd have to do a lot of moving in and out in the summer (which understandably lots of people would be doubtful that we could pull off)

[agreenwood]

We haven’t improved the starting seven.

Look at the eleven who played at Anfield.

That’s probably the biggest issue. We’ve got backwards because we failed to improve on what we had.

How many league starts do our outfield signings have between them this season? Four? Five?

[cricketfieldclarets]

And if we stay up, the fact we've dropped from 7th to 17th is a clear indication that the revamping of the squad can't be put off again.

We'd have to do a lot of moving in and out in the summer (which understandably lots of people would be doubtful that we could pull off)

Agree. This highlights again how frustrating january was. Not only could bodies have been useful now. They could have been integrated for next season before summer.

Need at least a new rb, lb, cm and cf

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm a fairly happy clapper, but it impossible to argue that we put too much faith in the team that got us to 7th and that they haven't backed that up with performances on the pitch consistently this year.

Needs a rethink in the summer and some big decisions.

[agreenwood]

I'm a fairly happy clapper, but it impossible to argue that we put too much faith in the team that got us to 7th and that they haven't backed that up with performances on the pitch consistently this year.

Needs a rethink in the summer and some big decisions.

This board and manager doesn’t really have the record to suggest they are capable of a successful/substantial squad overhaul. Previously it’s been very much incremental.

It’s hard to see them signing 4-5 players who are better than what we have in a single summer.

[cricketfieldclarets]

This board and manager doesn’t really have the record to suggest they are capable of a successful/substantial squad overhaul. Previously it’s been very much incremental.

It’s hard to see them signing 4-5 players who are better than what we have in a single summer.

Id take 3 now. But wont happen as you say.

The board actually believe 7th and europe in particular was a bad thing!

[beddie]

Whichever league we are in next season I really can't see the squad change that much, if we go down then a couple will want to leave. Its not because the club don't want to kick on to the next level it's down to finances, we simply can't compete with some of these exorbitant transfer fees and wages, at best we may add a couple of lower end championship players, it's the way it is I'm afraid.

[Blyclaret]

If you stand still ... go go backwards.
We have stood still since our 7th place finish.
Our board must have believed that squad was good enough to escape relegation
Now maybe they are right ... but they are cutting it very fine.
I now think it’s between us and Cardiff for that final place.
With us having the slight advantage of home game against them to come
2 point better off and better goals for.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Whichever league we are in next season I really can't see the squad change that much, if we go down then a couple will want to leave. Its not because the club don't want to kick on to the next level it's down to finances, we simply can't compete with some of these exorbitant transfer fees and wages, at best we may add a couple of lower end championship players, it's the way it is I'm afraid.

Theyve drilled it into you. Its nonsense though.

[Sproggy]

Theyve drilled it into you. Its nonsense though.

or maybe there really is nobody in world football that can improve our first eleven who will play for less than £30,000 a week.

[jojomk1]

Revamping the squad is not going to be that easy
Just look at our current list and there are a lot of players still contracted until 2021 never mind 2020

[cricketfieldclarets]

or maybe there really is nobody in world football that can improve our first eleven who will play for less than £30,000 a week.

I know your post is tongue in cheek, but I am boring myself with it now - there are literally tons of leagues out there that we could exploit.

Obviously there is a huge challenge with other teams in our league and their budgets, and I totally understand why Dyche sticks with what he knows. But we need to think outside the box.

We are a premier league club, with great facilities, in a perfect location, with prestige and history, made plenty of 'unfashionable' players into internationals and a small squad with plenty of chance of playing (Unless you are Gibson or Vydra!).

We have more than enough money, clout and connections to start looking on the continent and beyond. But we some so reluctant to do that at times its frightening.

Build networks abroad. Maybe even open up links with other clubs.

[Hipper]

We brought in Vydra, a Championship top scorer. For some reason that hasn't worked.

However, thinking 'outside the box' got us Defour. Overall, has Defour been a success, basically half a season of quality? One could argue 'yes' as it is what set us up for seventh place but overall he's been and continues to be a waste of space. It also nearly got us Grosicki, now doing well in the Championship for two seasons.

It seems to me that bringing in foreign players is more difficult then British ones and we can't afford to gamble too much. You only have to look at the web of intrigue associated with Sala's transfer to Cardiff - is that the norm?

[agreenwood]

It seems to me that bringing in foreign players is more difficult then British ones and we can't afford to gamble too much.

I don’t necessarily disagree, but the counter-argument will be that our very cautious approach to recruitment is in itself a gamble at this level of football. That gamble may yet cost the club significantly more in lost revenue than a few signings from abroad.

[Foulthrow]

A comparison with last year is very interesting. We won 14 games. Assuming we probably need another 3 wins to stay up this year that would mean we are only 3 wins behind last season and I’m sure all of us could think of three games that, in reality we should have won.

We only scored 36 goals last season; we already have 34. However, we only conceded 39 and we’re already at 57(!) this season.

[claretspice]

The difference between this season and last season is basically 4 games out of the 30 played. We've got 30 points now, we had 43 points at the same stage last season.

That's pretty much explained by the fact that we started last season really well, and we started this season really badly. Luck will have played a part in that (the odd decision, injuries etc.), the distraction of the Europa league was probably a part (exacerbated with some misfortune with injuries at the start of the season) and both of those things undoubtedly resulted in a lack of momentum, and the team having a lot less confidence than they did 12 months previously. That in turn becomes a bit of a vicious circle that exacerbates matters.

Sure, I think everyone agrees that we didn't recruit as well as we might have done in the summer - Dyche clearly prioritised a striker to compliment Wood and Barnes, and didn't get his man. Vydra appeared to be a second choice, and unfortunately that hasn't worked out as well as we hoped. That's meant we've not added any extra strings to our attacking play, and so teams have probably worked us out a bit.

But I suspect that is not as important as the impact of the start we made and the tone that set. We got into a rut and confidence and fortune. 4 games is not a massive differential in the grand scheme of things, and we can probably overthink it. However good our summer recruitment, the sorts of players we can realistically sign are always likely to need a bit of time to bed in, and are also going to be vulnerable looking pretty average when they're short on confidence or form.

There's a separate argument about whether the lack of recruitment last summer has stored up a bigger challenge for this summer, and I've got more sympathy with that.

[Spijed]

A comparison with last year is very interesting. We won 14 games. Assuming we probably need another 3 wins to stay up this year that would mean we are only 3 wins behind last season and I’m sure all of us could think of three games that, in reality we should have won.

We only scored 36 goals last season; we already have 34. However, we only conceded 39 and we’re already at 57(!) this season.

I posted in another thread that we were only two points better off at the same stage a couple of seasons ago, yet there is a completely different feel to this season in comparison.

[TVC15]

Whilst it might only be 13 points difference in this league if you take away the top 6 that is absolutely massive. Look at Wolves - sat in 7th place and co-incidentally also on 43 points. There is a pretty unaminous view that they have had a brilliant season...just as there was about us last year.

Personally i do not think this is down to "small margins" this season - I do believe there were a number of small margins last season which was the difference between probably about a dozen points...whether this involved catching teams at the right time (Chelsea, United away) ; sending offs ; missed open nets (Man City) etc etc.

This year we have been much more comprehensively beaten in many games than last year so a lot less opportunity for those small margin incidents to have any impact. Even in some of our 1-0 defeats when you look at the performances we were destroyed all over the pitch - Palace and Wolves away.

Obviously Europe and the way we started the season has had some impact this season but for me it is simply a case that a lot of our players have been nowhere near as good as last season. 2 pretty poor transfer windows has not helped the inevitable situation of injuries / loss of form either.

This would be my assessment of the players this year in terms of impact on our season :-

Ward, Brady, Vydra,Lennon & Defour : 0 out of 10. You could argue this could be a 1 because Lennon / Vydra played ok in a couple of games but basically they have all had little or no impact on our season (and I know this is mostly because of injury but I'm trying to context the difference between last year and this year to show why we have done so much worse)

Lowton & Cork : 3 out of 10. Two of our best players last year and both struggled this season for any decent form.

Tarks & Mee : 4 out of 10. Tarks decent at the start of the season and Mee has been better since the new year. Both nowhere near as good or as effective as last season when they were outstanding.

Hendrick & Wood : 4 out of 10. I`d say that Hendrick was probably similar last year but Wood had more impact. I know Wood has improved recently but the last 3 games he has been poor and he was a shadow of himself before his recent good spell.

JBG : 4 out of 10. Again partly due to injuries but he was one of the first names on the team sheet last year and I thought that if has another season like last year we would struggle to keep hold of him.

Hart & Pope : 4 out of 10. Don't think Hart did too much wrong but we conceded a lot of goals when he played and some of that must be down to him. Pope has hardly played but last season you would have him as a 9 out of 10 and you would probably give a similar score to the rest of last years defence as it was an incredible achievement to have the defensive record we did last year.

So that leaves Heaton, Westwood, Barnes, McNeil and Bardsley who have had as good as (Barnes) or considerably better than for the rest season this year than last.

I don't want to get into a debate about scores or some players playing better than I have said above....there`s no point. What I am trying to illustrate is that the "big" players who were immense last year and who in many cases are our big earners have not performed to the level they did last year and in some cases nowhere near that level. And nobody would have predicted that our best performers would be the ones I mentioned at the end.

Obviously a much shorter way of putting this is that we have simply been quite a bit sh-itter than last season in too many games !!!

[jrgbfc]

The players are out there, the problem lies with either our scouting system, or Dyche's stubbornness. Another summer whingeing about how difficult the market is isn't an option now, we simply have to strengthen.

[SGr]

Wasn’t to do with luck at all, especially the first half of that season. We had players like Defour, an in form Brady, and Cork who were all playing at the peak of their abilities in a system that suited them.

[claretspice]

Wasn’t to do with luck at all, especially the first half of that season. We had players like Defour, an in form Brady, and Cork who were all playing at the peak of their abilities in a system that suited them.

All playing at the peak of their abilities for sure, but boosted by the confidence of a few bits of fortune in early season - Chelsea imploding to get two men sent off, which gave us the platform (which we capitalised upon) to win at Stamford Bridge; a bit of fortune to escape with a point at Wembley against Spurs (including the fact Spurs were still getting used to Wembley, so it was a good time to go there); a smash and grab win at home to Palace when they gifted us an early goal through an appalling back pass.

All of which helped us build the momentum, belief and confidence to achieve what we achieved. This season, we started badly, had a few bad breaks at the start of the season and precisely the opposite thing happened.

The way in which we capitalised on the good start we had last season definitely wasn't luck; but the good start itself owed a bit to luck. Those are the fine margins at this level. It's far from the only factor, but it's a big one.

[Colburn_Claret]

This board and manager doesn’t really have the record to suggest they are capable of a successful/substantial squad overhaul. Previously it’s been very much incremental.

It’s hard to see them signing 4-5 players who are better than what we have in a single summer.

I dont think we need 4 to 5 players. We possibly need a back up for Bards and Lowton, we have plenty of goalkeepers and strikers. Plenty of wingers, if all fit, we need a replacement for Cork above all, and a good back up incase they or Westwood get injured. I'd have nothing against keeping Jack as the back up, but he shouldnt be starting.

[Spijed]

All playing at the peak of their abilities for sure, but boosted by the confidence of a few bits of fortune in early season - Chelsea imploding to get two men sent off, which gave us the platform (which we capitalised upon) to win at Stamford Bridge; a bit of fortune to escape with a point at Wembley against Spurs (including the fact Spurs were still getting used to Wembley, so it was a good time to go there); a smash and grab win at home to Palace when they gifted us an early goal through an appalling back pass.

All of which helped us build the momentum, belief and confidence to achieve what we achieved. This season, we started badly, had a few bad breaks at the start of the season and precisely the opposite thing happened.

The way in which we capitalised on the good start we had last season definitely wasn't luck; but the good start itself owed a bit to luck. Those are the fine margins at this level. It's far from the only factor, but it's a big one.

We also seem to have really good or bad periods during the season.

Last year we'd won six out of eight matches then went on a winless run that lasted for eleven games, before winning five in a row.

This year, post boxing day we've had a great run of eight matches, before suddenly losing the last three.

[Quicknick]

We finished 7th on merit last season. No penalty decisions went our way. If they had we'd have been 6th. The thing is that any team outside the big six have a chance of getting relegated the following season.

[cricketfieldclarets]

4 games is not a massive differential in the grand scheme of things, and we can probably overthink it.

Given that we would probably be safe with half of that, it is a massive difference when we have cardiff 2 points behind us and us with an incredibly tough run in.

[Spijed]

Given that we would probably be safe with half of that, it is a massive difference when we have cardiff 2 points behind us and us with an incredibly tough run in.

It's just our tougher games come at the end whereas, aside from our match, they are highly likely to lose 3 out of the next 4.

We have a mathematically better chance of surviving than we did four games ago (after Brighton) when we were still only two points ahead of Cardiff.

Since then we have played two of the big six. They have played none.

We've five at home, three away. They have three at home, five away.

Their three at home are Chelsea, Liverpool and Palace so there's a good chance they will have to rely heavily on their away form getting at least seven points away from home. They've currently got eight points away.