Is May going to resign today?

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South West Claret.
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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby South West Claret. » Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:57 pm

Ah yes I’d almost forgot...the Bercow factor :D

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:58 pm

The convention that Bercow used can be overturned by a simple parliamentary majority.

So whatever there is a majority for in Parliament, then it can't be stopped by that.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Sproggy » Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:06 pm

Yet here he is changing the rules when it suits him...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46818428

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby South West Claret. » Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:11 pm

“Critics of the Commons Speaker say he broke with precedent and ignored the advice of officials when he approved a vote on the PM's "Plan B" response, which ministers lost by 11 votes.”

There’s nothing like a rebellious speaker to put a spanner in the works is there.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby IanMcL » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:00 am

The deal and the PM are dead in the water.

Election would be closed by the Stay/Leave Euro Union issue, so no good.

A referendum is just a people opinion , based on knowledge of the time. Time for another, with some real info we then stand by that vote, no matter what. Then we go to Geneeal Election as these years may be difficult and we have had enough of being under the Tory cosh.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Right_winger » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:08 am

Nah no deal FTW. It’s almost upon us. GE not long after WTO would be perfect.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby CaptainKirk » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:18 am

No
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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Hipper » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:11 am

AndrewJB wrote:I think it all comes down to a second referendum. Start dusting off your sandals, your yellow vests, and your prawn sandwiches everyone.

May's deal will only get an extension when passed. May's deal won't get passed, and when a no deal exit is the last stop on the line, parliament will have a choice between revoking article 50, or calling another referendum. We could also have another election, but there won't be a majority enough for that in parliament, so we come to the final endgame - though by the way politicians flap this way and that we might be forgiven for not seeing the wood for the trees.

If we don't allow no deal,nor another election, and the EU don't give us an extension; then it's second referendum. Because our government won't kill Article 50.

That's what I think.


The problem is it is not just about what we or Parliament decide.

The EU have decisions to make too and they are in control. We have decided to leave. We have negotiated terms. Yet we can't agree those terms domestically. The EU would need to agree to revoke or extend article 50 before March 29th, and in the conditions you describe (no agreement, a new referendum with no obvious end in site) why should they. They too want to get on with managing EU affairs.

As things stand at the moment, if May does get a third Parliamentary vote and it is lost again, it is surely 'no deal'.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby summitclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:23 am

If she loses a third vote I think will resign and there will be an medium extension and an interim PM will be installed somehow whilst the Tory party appoints a brexiteer leader.

That will have a manifesto for that election saying that they want a deal including the trade but we will leave without one by x.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:28 am

Thing is, if she resigns, that doesn't solve anything.

If she extended Article 50 and then resigned, that would make more sense, but it would intensify calls for either an GE or a PV.

Basically, resigning doesn't change anything until after she loses her vote (which she still might not, but the ERG can sense a "No Deal")

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby MT03ALG » Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:09 pm

No

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby AndrewJB » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:22 pm

Hipper wrote:The problem is it is not just about what we or Parliament decide.

The EU have decisions to make too and they are in control. We have decided to leave. We have negotiated terms. Yet we can't agree those terms domestically. The EU would need to agree to revoke or extend article 50 before March 29th, and in the conditions you describe (no agreement, a new referendum with no obvious end in site) why should they. They too want to get on with managing EU affairs.

As things stand at the moment, if May does get a third Parliamentary vote and it is lost again, it is surely 'no deal'.

The EU have said they'll extend Article 50 if we hold an election, hold another referendum, or significantly change our position (such as staying in the customs union). As the clock winds down and May's deal isn't passed (which I don't think it will be), we either exit with no deal, revoke, or provide the EU with a reason for extending. It's fairly clear there is no support in parliament for no deal, though I can't see parliament outright revoking Article 50 either - so this is why I think another referendum will be the last option.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby dsr » Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:10 pm

AndrewJB wrote:The EU have said they'll extend Article 50 if we hold an election, hold another referendum, or significantly change our position (such as staying in the customs union). As the clock winds down and May's deal isn't passed (which I don't think it will be), we either exit with no deal, revoke, or provide the EU with a reason for extending. It's fairly clear there is no support in parliament for no deal, though I can't see parliament outright revoking Article 50 either - so this is why I think another referendum will be the last option.

France didn't sound like they were going to extend for another referendum. An extension needs unanimous approval by all 27 countries.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby AndrewJB » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:03 pm

dsr wrote:France didn't sound like they were going to extend for another referendum. An extension needs unanimous approval by all 27 countries.

They might not sound like that, but most of the twenty-seven won't be happy if we've called for a referendum and France crashes us out anyway. Considering we could then just revoke A50, it would only be an empty negative gesture.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby IanMcL » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:12 pm

Resignation shortly. Election to follow in May.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Quickenthetempo » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:21 pm

AndrewJB wrote:The EU have said they'll extend Article 50 if we hold an election, hold another referendum, or significantly change our position (such as staying in the customs union). As the clock winds down and May's deal isn't passed (which I don't think it will be), we either exit with no deal, revoke, or provide the EU with a reason for extending. It's fairly clear there is no support in parliament for no deal, though I can't see parliament outright revoking Article 50 either - so this is why I think another referendum will be the last option.

It will be last resorts for a 2nd referendum or GE as it takes away the power from the MPs.

MPs have all the power now but a GE could see all remainer MPs in Leave areas voted out and Corbyn losing again so will have to resign. He can't carry on can he?
A 2nd referendum could see Leave winning again and maybe a big vote for no deal. That would be a huge blow for the MPs and I just can't see them risking it.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:25 pm

MPs have all the power now but a GE could see all remainer MPs in Leave areas voted out and Corbyn losing again so will have to resign. He can't carry on can he?
A 2nd referendum could see Leave winning again and maybe a big vote for no deal. That would be a huge blow for the MPs and I just can't see them risking it.


And it could see the complete opposite as well, which is why brexiteers don't want to risk it.

Because of our FPTP system, it would be perfectly possible for remain to win the popular vote, and get about 100 MPs, and ditto Leave.

Leave with a deal is the safest way out of this.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Quickenthetempo » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:51 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:And it could see the complete opposite as well, which is why brexiteers don't want to risk it.

Because of our FPTP system, it would be perfectly possible for remain to win the popular vote, and get about 100 MPs, and ditto Leave.

Leave with a deal is the safest way out of this.

Yes you're right it could be the opposite, which is why all MPs won't want to risk it.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:52 pm

I'd be all for an election if I was confident it would produce a different result, but I don't think it would.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby depechedingle » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:01 am

No

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby tiger76 » Sat May 04, 2019 5:10 pm

Pressure growing on Theresa https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48161178 she really is between a rock and a hard place,if she agrees a deal with Labour's demands (Customs Union) then the euro-sceptic's on her backbenches won't be happy,but if she sticks to the red lines there is no chance of getting a parliamentary majority,surely to goodness the WA can't be voted on again as it stands.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Lancasterclaret » Sat May 04, 2019 5:13 pm

She will stay because no one wants to be the person in charge as the reality of where we are continues to affect both Lab and Cons.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby IanMcL » Sat May 04, 2019 8:41 pm

If she was a referee, the UK would be singing in harmony...

"You don't know what you're doing!"

Best if May, Cable and Corbyn resigned and we had another referendum, followed by a GE.

Clean sweep of everyone.
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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Top Claret » Sat May 04, 2019 8:44 pm

Like I gave Dyche after the Everton defeat, she has 2 more games

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby mkmel » Sat May 04, 2019 8:59 pm

IanMcL wrote:If she was a referee, the UK would be singing in harmony...

"You don't know what you're doing!"

Best if May, Cable and Corbyn resigned and we had another referendum, followed by a GE.

Clean sweep of everyone.


As a lifelong Labour supporter I don't think that's a bad shout Ian
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Vino blanco
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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Vino blanco » Sat May 04, 2019 9:56 pm

Mel, as a life long labour supporter, that you say you are, you know it's not going to happen. But good luck with your dreams.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby nil_desperandum » Sat May 04, 2019 10:10 pm

Vino blanco wrote:Mel, as a life long labour supporter, that you say you are, you know it's not going to happen. But good luck with your dreams.

Well Cable's going, May is unlikely to last beyond the autumn, and if Corbyn gets it wrong at the EU elections then there'll be huge pressure from rank and file for him to go, especially as it's absolutely clear that he will never tackle the ant-semitism issue.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby IanMcL » Sat May 04, 2019 10:44 pm

David Miliband looking to rescue Labour? Starting to pop up, here and there.

...and he is a Thunderbird after all!

(International Rescue)

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby nil_desperandum » Sat May 04, 2019 11:01 pm

IanMcL wrote:David Miliband looking to rescue Labour? Starting to pop up, here and there.

...and he is a Thunderbird after all!

(International Rescue)

If Miliband (D) were to become leader of the Labour Party, reclaim some of the centre ground, root out anti-semitism, adopt Green policies and campaign on the promise of a Confirmatory Vote, my view is that Labour would quickly see off the challenge presented by Change UK and the Lib Dems, and the party would storm ahead of the Tories in the polls.
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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Goobs » Sat May 04, 2019 11:06 pm

Top Claret wrote:Like I gave Dyche after the Everton defeat, she has 2 more games

So that gives her until August unless you are counting preseason matches.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby jdrobbo » Sat May 04, 2019 11:51 pm

Touch and Go

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby IanMcL » Sun May 05, 2019 9:36 am

nil_desperandum wrote:If Miliband (D) were to become leader of the Labour Party, reclaim some of the centre ground, root out anti-semitism, adopt Green policies and campaign on the promise of a Confirmatory Vote, my view is that Labour would quickly see off the challenge presented by Change UK and the Lib Dems, and the party would storm ahead of the Tories in the polls.

He is certainly equipped to do that.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby mkmel » Sun May 05, 2019 10:15 am

A few years ago it should have been him and not his brother
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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Blackrod » Sun May 05, 2019 10:19 am

It’s hard to take anyone seriously who really wants Corbyn in charge of the country. Even if there was famine and mass unemployment it still wouldn’t be that attractive an option.
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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby evensteadiereddie » Sun May 05, 2019 10:35 am

Opinions, eh ?

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If it be your will
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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby If it be your will » Sun May 05, 2019 11:17 am

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Last edited by If it be your will on Sat Aug 03, 2019 12:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby nil_desperandum » Sun May 05, 2019 1:01 pm

If it be your will wrote:But we've already got 2 centre ground parties, you've just listed them. Anyone that wants a party for the status quo, one that won't rock the boat too much, is spoilt for choice already. Why do you want to remove the only genuinely left wing option? That doesn't sound very democratic.

I do agree with one thing, though: If D Miliband was made Labour leader, we'd never hear about anti-semitism in the Labour party again.


Yes, you're correct with your first sentence, but you come across as an intelligent poster, so you must understand that at a GE (with our FPTP system) either Tory or Labour will emerge as the largest party. The 2 centre ground parties, (+Greens) can't win many seats.
History and all the evidence tells us that for either of the "big 2" parties to gain an outright majority they have to secure a large number of votes from the centre ground.
Corbyn will never get an overall majority, and with left / left of centre votes spread amongst 3 parties, and some on the left bizarrely turning to extremist right wing parties, it's most likely that Conservatives, (despite all their problems and failings) could continue to hold on to power, and continue to be held to ransom by extremists like the ERG and DUP.
You can't rock the boat much when you're perpetually a protest party in opposition, no matter how much faith you have in your policies and leader.
We need some form of PR type system for a "genuine" left wing party to succeed, (in coalition with one ore more of the left of centre parties).

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby thatdberight » Sun May 05, 2019 1:30 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:... extremists like the ERG and DUP...


There's nothing like extremism of the centre to make you casually throw around such definitions.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby nil_desperandum » Sun May 05, 2019 2:18 pm

thatdberight wrote:There's nothing like extremism of the centre to make you casually throw around such definitions.


Where have you got that quote from?
It makes no sense at all. By definition if you're in the centre you can't be on the extremes, although I suppose you could be extremely central.
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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby If it be your will » Sun May 05, 2019 3:19 pm

.
Last edited by If it be your will on Sat Aug 03, 2019 12:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby Lancasterclaret » Sun May 05, 2019 3:24 pm

Yup

You can get power, but only by acknowledging that it will be centre-left coalition.

Pretending that the UK are going to vote in a majority (key word here) for Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnel, Burgon, Gardiner is about as likely as the UK voting in for one with May, Davis, Gove, Johnson, Raab

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby thatdberight » Sun May 05, 2019 4:08 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Where have you got that quote from?
It makes no sense at all. By definition if you're in the centre you can't be on the extremes, although I suppose you could be extremely central.


You could be central but be extreme in your view of what diverges sufficiently from the centre to merit the term 'extremist'. As you proved.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby GodIsADeeJay81 » Sun May 05, 2019 6:19 pm

mkmel wrote:A few years ago it should have been him and not his brother


I suspect the Unions found his brother easier to boss around.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby nil_desperandum » Sun May 05, 2019 6:45 pm

thatdberight wrote:You've really got it in for Liz Kendall, haven't you?

Good reply.
I've honestly no idea why my post came up like that with those massive gaps, and with the very colourless Liz at the bottom. For some reason it won't allow me to delete the gap when I edit, so apologies to other posters for the messy post.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby thatdberight » Sun May 05, 2019 7:03 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Good reply.
I've honestly no idea why my post came up like that with those massive gaps, and with the very colourless Liz at the bottom. For some reason it won't allow me to delete the gap when I edit, so apologies to other posters for the messy post.


More seriously, I don't see your examples as "extremist" any more than I see Corbyn as extremist. I think that categorisation should be reserved for more extreme views or it becomes devalued. I also think it's counterproductive, and wrong, to label views which command significant support as "extremist". By definition, they're mainstream however much or little I might agree with them.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby elwaclaret » Sun May 05, 2019 7:11 pm

‘Extreme’ Left and ‘extreme right’ don’t truly exist in mainstream British politics. All are centre capitalist... even the likes of Corbyn who are on our media created ‘extreme’ list are capitalists and therefore centre. Fascists believe the public should work for the Profit of the nation, commies that the people should work for the country...subtle but vast differences not reflected in parliament.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby nil_desperandum » Sun May 05, 2019 9:09 pm

thatdberight wrote:More seriously, I don't see your examples as "extremist" any more than I see Corbyn as extremist. I think that categorisation should be reserved for more extreme views or it becomes devalued. I also think it's counterproductive, and wrong, to label views which command significant support as "extremist". By definition, they're mainstream however much or little I might agree with them.

I suppose it comes down to how you are defining "extreme". I'm simply using the term to describe the relative distance from the centre.
(i.e. Mark Francois further away from centre than most other people in his party).
Incidentally, being mainstream doesn't mean you can't be an extremist. (There are some rather obvious examples in history. [1930s and 40s Germany and Stalinist Russia for example])

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby thatdberight » Sun May 05, 2019 9:27 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:I suppose it comes down to how you are defining "extreme". I'm simply using the term to describe the relative distance from the centre.
(i.e. Mark Francois further away from centre than most other people in his party).
Incidentally, being mainstream doesn't mean you can't be an extremist. (There are some rather obvious examples in history. [1930s and 40s Germany and Stalinist Russia for example])


I'm certainly not going to define "extremists" by "anti-abortion, opposed to same-sex marriage,". You're in danger of describing many Sikhs, Catholics, Muslims and others (if religious or other persuasion) in the UK as "extremists". Out of step (although it should be noted only by 30-40 years and only in this country) perhaps, but "extremists"? Large swathes of the world have populations who have such views. Are they "extremists"? I don't doubt you do nuance and you might well say that extremism in this debate has a different threshold than others. I still think it's an unhelpful tag to attach too easily to people and shows, even inadvertently, how extremely narrow our mainstream is becoming.

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Re: Is May going to resign today?

Postby nil_desperandum » Sun May 05, 2019 9:48 pm

thatdberight wrote:I'm certainly not going to define "extremists" by "anti-abortion, opposed to same-sex marriage,". You're in danger of describing many Sikhs, Catholics, Muslims and others (if religious or other persuasion) in the UK as "extremists". Out of step (although it should be noted only by 30-40 years and only in this country) perhaps, but "extremists"? Large swathes of the world have populations who have such views. Are they "extremists"? I don't doubt you do nuance and you might well say that extremism in this debate has a different threshold than others. I still think it's an unhelpful tag to attach too easily to people and shows, even inadvertently, how extremely narrow our mainstream is becoming.


You make good and interesting points, and I've enjoyed this little debate. I'd like to continue, but I'm driving down to Sussex at 6 in the morning, so need to do some prep and get to bed.
No stamina these days!


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