7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

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Quickenthetempo
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7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Quickenthetempo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:34 pm

I've just had a quick look at the ante post betting for the National and seen the favourite Tiger Roll is 7/2 to win in the betting.
Smashing horse that won it last year and probably will this year, but it's the shortest odds I've ever seen in the race with 40 runners.

Usually 8/1 for the favourite

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby CoolClaret » Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:38 pm

GN really is a tough one ; humongous field, huge track massive jumps = so many variables.....

Incidentally I had Tiger Roll on last year, agreed he really is a special horse.
His most recent victory @ Cheltenham was brilliant to watch.
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Bosscat » Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:42 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:I've just had a quick look at the ante post betting for the National and seen the favourite Tiger Roll is 7/2 to win in the betting.
Smashing horse that won it last year and probably will this year, but it's the shortest odds I've ever seen in the race with 40 runners.

Usually 8/1 for the favourite

Goes to show how many people are throwing money at it... the Bookies must be dreading it winning again

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Quickenthetempo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:48 pm

CoolClaret wrote:GN really is a tough one ; humongous field, huge track massive jumps = so many variables.....

Incidentally I had Tiger Roll on last year, agreed he really is a special horse.
His most recent victory @ Cheltenham was brilliant to watch.

Reducing the fences slightly has give the owners far more confidence their prized horses can get round safely and come home, this has led to far more classier horses being entered, which is great.

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CoolClaret
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby CoolClaret » Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:01 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:Reducing the fences slightly has give the owners far more confidence their prized horses can get round safely and come home, this has led to far more classier horses being entered, which is great.


Yeah good point mate, it's an incredible spectacle no doubt.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby conyoviejo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 4:56 pm

Absolutely ridiculous odds for such a race.. Anybody taking 7/2 is throwing their money away as it won't win.. You heard it here first ..Don't waste your money on it..

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby pushpinpussy » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:01 pm

ive backed it already. will walk it

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Quickenthetempo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:02 pm

conyoviejo wrote:Absolutely ridiculous odds for such a race.. Anybody taking 7/2 is throwing their money away as it won't win.. You heard it here first ..Don't waste your money on it..

I agree on the odds being ridiculous but what makes you think it won't win the race?

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby conyoviejo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:02 pm

pushpinpussy wrote:ive backed it already. will walk it


I'm afraid your money is down the drain PP.. :(

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby conyoviejo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:03 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:I agree on the odds being ridiculous but what makes you think it won't win the race?


Simply it will fall.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby FactualFrank » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:04 pm

The favourite has won 5 times since 1994.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby pushpinpussy » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:04 pm

conyoviejo wrote:I'm afraid your money is down the drain PP.. :(



what you backing then

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Darnhill Claret » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:10 pm

20/1 on the 25thJan

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Claretuk » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:13 pm

conyoviejo wrote:Absolutely ridiculous odds for such a race.. Anybody taking 7/2 is throwing their money away as it won't win.. You heard it here first ..Don't waste your money on it..

I agree, it will either be pulled up or fall as it had a hard race @ Cheltenham n the national is coming to soon for it to go in again.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby conyoviejo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:42 pm

pushpinpussy wrote:what you backing then


Not sure PP. will wait to see what the going is like before wasting my money .. :D
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby claretburns » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:56 pm

pushpinpussy wrote:ive backed it already. will walk it


Don't think it will do much if it is walking.
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby theroyaldyche » Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:31 pm

If it stays up itl **** it

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Quickenthetempo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:40 pm

Claretuk wrote:I agree, it will either be pulled up or fall as it had a hard race @ Cheltenham n the national is coming to soon for it to go in again.

Hard race???

It coasted round and won by 30 lengths.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Pstotto » Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:44 pm

I tried a five home win accumulator all against and I lost 3 of the bets.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Billy Balfour » Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:02 pm

A mate of ours, who reckons he does quite well backing the gee-gees, wouldn't touch the Grand National with Pstotto's.
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby FactualFrank » Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:06 pm

I couldn't win a one ticket raffle, so I don't even bother.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby kentonclaret » Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:23 pm

I backed Vintage Clouds EW at 50/1 back in October last year. Hoping for a repeat of when I backed Rubstic at 66/1 and 50/1 months before the race many years ago.

Need a couple of horses to come out to get a run otherwise it's stakes refunded.

If VC doesn't run will leave the race alone since Gordon Elliott is planning to run his entire stable in the race to land the pot.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby dandeclaret » Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:34 pm

Claretuk wrote:I agree, it will either be pulled up or fall as it had a hard race @ Cheltenham n the national is coming to soon for it to go in again.



He had a canter round in a half paced race, where they're always on the turn........ the same race he ran in last year before winning the national. Only difference - last year's race at Cheltenham was classier.
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby THEWELLERNUT70 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:47 pm

It's true it's a ridiculously short price, however imo it's still the one to beat this year.

Tiger Roll if anything is a better horse this season than when it won last years race. Also it's nearly 3/4 of a stone "well in" in the weights, which were handed out before Tiger Roll coasted to an easy victory in Ireland in February. The confirmation of Bristol De Mai declared as a runner means Tiger Roll will retain its weight. If Bristol De Mai had come out Tiger Roll would have gone up in the weights around another 5 lbs at least

It's the 1st time in some years that a returning defending champion hasn't been allocated top weight to my knowledge

The run and subsequent victory was even easier and probably lighter on the horse than when winning the cross country at Cheltenham this year. It was the only reason I didn't back it last year as I thought the tough race in the cross country might have taken too much out of him. I was wrong.

As for falling,Tiger Roll from my memory hasn't fallen so far. The make up of the Aintree fences since 2012 has meant a very high percentage of those not competing the course are actually pulled up as opposed to actually falling, so if anything the task is now easier,which in turn means better quality horses are now in the final 40 declared

A couple I have backed e/w a number of weeks back and imo are worth noting are Rathvinden (backed at 28/1) and Minella Rocco (backed at 33/1) , the latter being well weighted for the race

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby dandeclaret » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:01 pm

Your latter is also my selection for the race - I have quite liked his last 2 runs in their own way.
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby cricketfieldclarets » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:23 pm

conyoviejo wrote:I'm afraid your money is down the drain PP.. :(

It definitely is if its going to walk!

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Royboyclaret » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:24 pm

dandeclaret wrote:Your latter is also my selection for the race - I have quite liked his last 2 runs in their own way.


Don't see Wilde Blue Yonder in the ante-post lists Dan ?

Two cracking runs recently.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby cricketfieldclarets » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:26 pm

While i wont profess to be an expert on horses. One thing i dont do is listen to grand national 'tips' or form or odds.

Its the one race where going with a name or a hunch is probably a better strategy than anything else.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby THEWELLERNUT70 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:45 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:While i wont profess to be an expert on horses. One thing i dont do is listen to grand national 'tips' or form or odds.

Its the one race where going with a name or a hunch is probably a better strategy than anything else.


It's not actually a lottery that people seem to think it is. Theres a list of trends available on the internet for the big race. Out of the 10 or so stat trends you will find since the turn of this century that all previous winners will meet at least 8 of the trends stated
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby cricketfieldclarets » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:48 pm

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote:It's not actually a lottery that people seem to think it is. Theres a list of trends available on the internet for the big race. Out of the 10 or so stat trends you will find since the turn of this century that all previous winners will meet at least 8 of the trends stated

So still a lottery.

How many horses meet that trend? 3? 10?

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby THEWELLERNUT70 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:55 pm


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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby THEWELLERNUT70 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:58 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:So still a lottery.

How many horses meet that trend? 3? 10?


Not really when you can in all likelihood discount around at least 50-60% of the field before the race even starts :)

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Quickenthetempo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:13 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:So still a lottery.

How many horses meet that trend? 3? 10?

It's a bit like betting on the premind league winner. 20 enter but you can discount 14 straight away.

But every now and then a Leicester might win it.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby dsr » Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:21 pm

I think Red Rum was 7-2 in 1975. Didn't win, though.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby dandeclaret » Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:22 pm

Royboyclaret wrote:Don't see Wilde Blue Yonder in the ante-post lists Dan ?

Two cracking runs recently.



He's been in great form Royboy..... heart rate was high on Friday when he loomed up. Just doesn't get 3 miles, but important for us to find out as all the veterans races are over that trip. 133 he was running off on Friday as a 10 year old, he's still full of enthusiasm, and still has a touch of class.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Royboyclaret » Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:28 pm

dandeclaret wrote:He's been in great form Royboy..... heart rate was high on Friday when he loomed up. Just doesn't get 3 miles, but important for us to find out as all the veterans races are over that trip. 133 he was running off on Friday as a 10 year old, he's still full of enthusiasm, and still has a touch of class.


It was the previous run that particularly impressed me, was it Haydock ?

Looked to have have timed his run perfectly to win the race.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby THEWELLERNUT70 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:54 pm

Just a little info on Tiger Roll

"Tiger Roll's second race for his new owner and trainer was the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March 2014. Ridden by Davy Russell, he won by 3¼ lengths. This was the first of four victories at the Cheltenham Festival, the other three being the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup in March 2017 with jockey Lisa O’Neill, and the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase in March 2018 and March 2019 with jockey Keith Donoghue. By the time of his second win in the Glenfarcas Cross Country Chase he had won a total of eleven races and not fallen once in 34 starts."

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby conyoviejo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 11:14 pm

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote:Just a little info on Tiger Roll

"Tiger Roll's second race for his new owner and trainer was the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March 2014. Ridden by Davy Russell, he won by 3¼ lengths. This was the first of four victories at the Cheltenham Festival, the other three being the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup in March 2017 with jockey Lisa O’Neill, and the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase in March 2018 and March 2019 with jockey Keith Donoghue. By the time of his second win in the Glenfarcas Cross Country Chase he had won a total of eleven races and not fallen once in 34 starts."


Wellernut,To me Stats don't mean nothing in the National ,loose horses taking horses out,horses falling in front of other horses bringing them down..jockey mistakes etc all come into play with the size of the national field.. Tiger Roll may well win but I feel it's such a lottery that the 7/2 odds they are offering are disgusting for a race like this with all that can go wrong.. If Tiger Roll gets round then I will admit he has a great chance of winning..I just have this feeling that he will fall ..Hope I'm wrong though as it will be a great achievment to win it again.. Good luck with your bets .. 8-)

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby kentonclaret » Mon Mar 25, 2019 6:16 pm

I heard a quote from somebody within racing that the modifications to the course and the fences have turned the Grand National into the lottery that everybody always assumed it to be.

Many horses complete the course now, even horses with a history of falling, and the fact that a horse has never fallen is not as relevant as it once was.

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South West Claret.
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby South West Claret. » Mon Mar 25, 2019 6:27 pm

Not into horses racing but might have a flutter but only on the day so that most of the drop outs will have dropped out.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Quickenthetempo » Mon Mar 25, 2019 7:05 pm

Here's a list of past winners. Price and winning times etc
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... al_winners

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby THEWELLERNUT70 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:49 pm

Update

Indications are that Bristol De Mai will miss the 5 day declaration stage for the Grand National and opt to run in the Betway Bowl on Thursday instead. This means that Annibale Fly will now be allocated top weight of 11st 10lbs and Tiger Roll is also upped 4lbs and now shoulders 11st 5lbs

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Elizabeth » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:59 pm

Are there any grey horses running? I remember my excitement when Nicholas Silver won.

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby THEWELLERNUT70 » Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:23 am

1/ Chase runs at least 10

2/ Age 8 to 11

3/ Season Runs 3 or more

4/ Days since last run 20-60

5/ 3m chase wins at least 1

6/ Weight up to 11st 6lb

7/ Season Fall no more than 1

8/ Career Fall no more than 2

9/ Biggest Chase win over 30k

These are the list of trends I mentioned further up this thread which should help whittle the field down

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby claretdj » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:12 pm

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote:1/ Chase runs at least 10

2/ Age 8 to 11

3/ Season Runs 3 or more

4/ Days since last run 20-60

5/ 3m chase wins at least 1

6/ Weight up to 11st 6lb

7/ Season Fall no more than 1

8/ Career Fall no more than 2

9/ Biggest Chase win over 30k

These are the list of trends I mentioned further up this thread which should help whittle the field down

Nah, just stick a pin in.. :lol:
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby Goobs » Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:14 pm

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote:1/ Chase runs at least 10

2/ Age 8 to 11

3/ Season Runs 3 or more

4/ Days since last run 20-60

5/ 3m chase wins at least 1

6/ Weight up to 11st 6lb

7/ Season Fall no more than 1

8/ Career Fall no more than 2

9/ Biggest Chase win over 30k

These are the list of trends I mentioned further up this thread which should help whittle the field down

Come back to us when you have done it and just give us the horses name(s) ;)

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby theroyaldyche » Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:38 pm

Has to carry even more weight now too
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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby THEWELLERNUT70 » Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:50 am

Goobs wrote:Come back to us when you have done it and just give us the horses name(s) ;)


Already have done, see further up ;)

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby claretonthecoast1882 » Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:52 am

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote:Already have done, see further up ;)



Im on Minella Rocco too, might throw a bit more at it on the day if bet365 do the 50% cashback offer like last few years

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Re: 7/2 for a Grand National favourite?

Postby THEWELLERNUT70 » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:22 pm

A cracking run down, rating and pros and cons for each runner in the National

https://www.racingtv.com/news/runner-by ... d-national


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