What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

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What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Rowls » Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:19 am

On 27th December Burnley had played 19 Premier League games and we occupied the final relegation place with a total of 12 points from 19 games.

That works out at an average of 0.63 points per game - relegation form.

Since Heaton has returned to the team we have played 14 games and won 24 points.

That works out at an average of 1.71 points per game - over a season this form would put us comfortbly back in 7th place with 56 points. Exactly where we finished last season and in line for another European campaign.

And that's despite having lost 4 in a row in March!
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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Vegas Claret » Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:48 am

what if we had signed the midfielder every single Burnley fan acknowledged we needed
what if we'd have been given all the penalties we should have had etc

all if's but's and maybes but no doubt Heaton has made a colossal difference, it just feels an awful lot calmer with him playing

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Top Claret » Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:17 am

Heaton, McNeil, Taylor, Westwood all been outstanding since the Everton thrashing, and not to forget Dyche who also uped his game
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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Pstotto » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:00 am

Why isn't Pope on the bench instead of Hart? he is quite clearly our 1st choice keeper from last season. Hart is to blame for all our problems and yet for political reasons he is kept in the squad. Poor of Burnley getting ready to sell Pope.
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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby box_of_frogs » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:03 am

What if we hadn’t been in the Europa League?

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby mdd2 » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:11 am

Rowls wrote:On 27th December Burnley had played 19 Premier League games and we occupied the final relegation place with a total of 12 points from 19 games.

That works out at an average of 0.63 points per game - relegation form.

Since Heaton has returned to the team we have played 14 games and won 24 points.

That works out at an average of 1.71 points per game - over a season this form would put us comfortbly back in 7th place with 56 points. Exactly where we finished last season and in line for another European campaign.

And that's despite having lost 4 in a row in March!

I think it is 65 not 56 points

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby wilks_bfc » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:19 am

box_of_frogs wrote:What if we hadn’t been in the Europa League?


We wouldn’t have needed to sign another keeper ;)

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Pearcey » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:26 am

He has been fit for most of the season. I thought Hart had some great games for us. The problem was that the team were massively under performing. There were many on here who thought Mee should be dropped etc. Saying that, it was good to have our Skipper back.
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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby BFC123 » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:31 am

mdd2 wrote:I think it is 65 not 56 points

Yeah, 65 over a full season. 56 after 33 games (which is what I think he meant).
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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby mdd2 » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:37 am

We conceded 41 times in 19 with Joe and 19 in 14 with Tom. Many of us were saying the difference and only change from last season was the keeper and Joe had not made many howlers so why? If we noticed this why didn’t Sean and why 19 games to decide and not 10 or 15?

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby jedi_master » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:40 am

Heaton was fit all season.

We’ll never know if SD sees it this way but I think the signing of Hart and then the decision to immediately install him as number one was THE key decision in planting us in trouble pre Christmas.

Said it before and will say it again, it’s not about Hart as a bloke, it’s about the fact that our formally watertight defence looked hugely confused at his difference in style to Pope and Heaton. So many goals up to and including Boxing Day were conceded owing (in my opinion) to what seemed to be poor communication and a lack of control of the box. The defence was as much to blame as Hart for sure, but you can’t change them all.

The points return since Heaton was installed speaks for itself, anyone thinking it’s a coincidence is in some form of Hart loving denial.
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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby WestMidsClaret » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:40 am

Because Sean is quite stubborn at times mdd2.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Down_Rover » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:58 am

WestMidsClaret wrote:Because Sean is quite stubborn at times mdd2.


One of his qualities I believe

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby morpheus2 » Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:26 am

Hart as an individual is a great goalkeeper and made some outstanding saves...but the defence, running around like headless chickens in front of him were (seemingly) getting no instructions and Hart rarely seemed to leave his line when under pressure.

Heaton came back and suddenly the defence seemed to galvanise - like the Spartans digging their heels in the sand to hold back the Persians at the pass of Thermopylae, shields locked together, suddenly some spirit was added to the defence which permeated through the whole team. Heaton is part of a team, Hart is Hart.
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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby evensteadiereddie » Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:36 am

jedi_master wrote:Heaton was fit all season.

We’ll never know if SD sees it this way but I think the signing of Hart and then the decision to immediately install him as number one was THE key decision in planting us in trouble pre Christmas.

Said it before and will say it again, it’s not about Hart as a bloke, it’s about the fact that our formally watertight defence looked hugely confused at his difference in style to Pope and Heaton. So many goals up to and including Boxing Day were conceded owing (in my opinion) to what seemed to be poor communication and a lack of control of the box. The defence was as much to blame as Hart for sure, but you can’t change them all.

The points return since Heaton was installed speaks for itself, anyone thinking it’s a coincidence is in some form of Hart loving denial.


This.

Hart made many fine saves and flattered to deceive. Those saves masked the fact that Hart's attempt at commanding his defence and the area became confusing, uncertain and confidence-sapping. We let in a few stupid goals and, as we all know, we work to very fine margins and potential wins became draws and potential draws became defeats.
I think Dyche more or less acknowledged publicly that he'd been loyal for a little too long to certain players - he could only have been referring to Hart.
Don't forget, if Burton Albion away was a big test of Tom's readiness for a Prem return, he failed it miserably.
A tricky one but all's well that is ending well - we hope !
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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby WestMidsClaret » Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:37 am

Down_Rover wrote:One of his qualities I believe


Also one of his weaknesses tbf.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby AndyClaret » Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:45 am

Here's the last 14 games.
Attachments
4.PNG
4.PNG (36.54 KiB) Viewed 1417 times

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Rowls » Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:19 am

mdd2 wrote:I think it is 65 not 56 points


It could well be - I'd finished work and was very tired!

Whatever it is, it's remarkable.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Rowls » Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:20 am

BFC123 wrote:Yeah, 65 over a full season. 56 after 33 games (which is what I think he meant).


Ahh, yes.

That is actually what I meant :)

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Steve1956 » Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:24 am

We wouldn't have bought Joe Hart.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby CrosspoolClarets » Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:19 pm

I can get the Pope argument, but Heaton stays on his line as much as Hart does. I don’t see how that affects how the defence behaves in front of him.

The defence is worse this season in goals conceded. The “sub-stats” behind that are that we haven’t made fewer saves, clearances, tackles etc. Where we ARE worse is headed clearances and tackle success. The former may also be culpable in us shipping far more from set pieces (again yesterday).

So I feel the big change has been the form of our defenders, as well as playing Wood and Barnes. If Mee and Tarky, two experienced defenders, cannot play in front of Hart (a similar keeper to Heaton), that says more about them than it does about Hart. It is one of those things, but Hart has been very unfortunate. I still feel he is our best keeper.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Rowls » Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:22 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote: It is one of those things, but Hart has been very unfortunate. I still feel he is our best keeper.


Well, it's all about opinions....

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby taio » Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:27 pm

The change since Heaton has come in has been obvious to see. It's clear at the games that he organises the back four far better and they are more confident playing in front of him than Hart. I believe Hart should be our number 3 for the remainder of the season and Pope on the bench.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby IanMcL » Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:19 pm

Just shows you no matter what the rest do, over a season, the top 6 are the top 6.

WHAT IF POPE HAD BEEN FIT ALL SEASON?

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Down_Rover » Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:19 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:I can get the Pope argument, but Heaton stays on his line as much as Hart does. I don’t see how that affects how the defence behaves in front of him.

The defence is worse this season in goals conceded. The “sub-stats” behind that are that we haven’t made fewer saves, clearances, tackles etc. Where we ARE worse is headed clearances and tackle success. The former may also be culpable in us shipping far more from set pieces (again yesterday).

So I feel the big change has been the form of our defenders, as well as playing Wood and Barnes. If Mee and Tarky, two experienced defenders, cannot play in front of Hart (a similar keeper to Heaton), that says more about them than it does about Hart. It is one of those things, but Hart has been very unfortunate. I still feel he is our best keeper.

Heat on does come off his line.

Was like lightning on one occasion v Wolves in the first half and made a good save from Ings v Solon when clear. Hart is quite different, he is a goal line shot stopper and does not command that area between keeper and back four. Too many goals were scored under his tenure by crosses floated into that area owing to lack of communication.

The stats you refer to are for the season as a whole. If there were split between the keepers they would be revealing. Our blocks ant tackles have increased markedly since Boxing day

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Bosscat » Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:23 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:I can get the Pope argument, but Heaton stays on his line as much as Hart does. I don’t see how that affects how the defence behaves in front of him.

The defence is worse this season in goals conceded. The “sub-stats” behind that are that we haven’t made fewer saves, clearances, tackles etc. Where we ARE worse is headed clearances and tackle success. The former may also be culpable in us shipping far more from set pieces (again yesterday).

So I feel the big change has been the form of our defenders, as well as playing Wood and Barnes. If Mee and Tarky, two experienced defenders, cannot play in front of Hart (a similar keeper to Heaton), that says more about them than it does about Hart. It is one of those things, but Hart has been very unfortunate. I still feel he is our best keeper.

One word

********

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby MRG » Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:13 pm

Hart did absolutely nothing wrong and it’s embarrassing that we continue to make a scapegoat of him.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby MRG » Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:16 pm

taio wrote:The change since Heaton has come in has been obvious to see. It's clear at the games that he organises the back four far better and they are more confident playing in front of him than Hart. I believe Hart should be our number 3 for the remainder of the season and Pope on the bench.


Your post raises far more questions about our defence than it does about the goalkeeper. Defenders at this level shouldn’t need organising and that fact that we simply accept that they will play badly unless Heaton is in the team to organise them is nothing short of embarrassing
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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby cricketfieldclarets » Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:22 pm

MRG wrote:Hart did absolutely nothing wrong and it’s embarrassing that we continue to make a scapegoat of him.

Spot on.

Of course no doubt improvements have been seen since Heaton came back. There isnt actually that much difference in their style or even ability.

But has anyone forgotten that improvement also coincided with

Taylors improvement
Westwoods improvement
Returning to a partnership of Wood and Barnes
Return to 442
And probably most importantly of all the emergence of McNeil.

Watching him on yesterdays highlights not only does he ooze class he oozes confidence.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Bertiebeehead » Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:00 pm

Heaton is club captain, that has made the difference.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby taio » Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:27 pm

MRG wrote:Your post raises far more questions about our defence than it does about the goalkeeper. Defenders at this level shouldn’t need organising and that fact that we simply accept that they will play badly unless Heaton is in the team to organise them is nothing short of embarrassing


I can understand why it raises questions for you but it doesn't for me. In this instance, I feel it needs to be viewed simplistically - that we've been better defensively with both Heaton or Pope in goal than Hart. I appreciate this has in part coincided with other things so it's tough on Hart. But the nuances don't really matter to me and I stuggle to understand why it would be embarrassing. That's why I feel Hart should now be number 3.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby Lancasterclaret » Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:05 pm

morpheus2 wrote:Hart as an individual is a great goalkeeper and made some outstanding saves...but the defence, running around like headless chickens in front of him were (seemingly) getting no instructions and Hart rarely seemed to leave his line when under pressure.

Heaton came back and suddenly the defence seemed to galvanise - like the Spartans digging their heels in the sand to hold back the Persians at the pass of Thermopylae, shields locked together, suddenly some spirit was added to the defence which permeated through the whole team. Heaton is part of a team, Hart is Hart.


Thermopylae was a Spartan defeat! ****, does this mean we are still going down?

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby CrosspoolClarets » Sun Apr 07, 2019 4:51 pm

Down_Rover wrote:The stats you refer to are for the season as a whole. If there were split between the keepers they would be revealing. Our blocks ant tackles have increased markedly since Boxing day


I'm intrigued by that, and I agree that our defenders are playing better (as I said above). I would also add that 2 years ago Heaton would have been my first choice England keeper for the World Cup Finals so I'm not in any way knocking Tom.

Back to the stats.....per 90 minutes over last 2 seasons.....from WhoScored.Com helped by a calculator on my part.....

Heaton this season - 2.71 saves per 90 mins (0.14 in 6 yard box, 1.57 in 18 yard box, 1.00 outside box).
Hart - 4.00 saves per 90 mins (0.50 in 6 yard box, 2.32 in 18 yard box, 1.18 outside box).
Pope - 3.29 saves per 90 mins (0.14 in 6 yard box, 1.99 in 18 yard box, 1.16 outside box).
Heaton 2 seasons ago - 4.03 saves per 90 mins (0.14 in 6 yard box, 2.26 in 18 yard box, 1.63 outside box)

Those stats suggest to me that the defence since Heaton is back has better protected the keeper than at any time in the past 3 seasons. The Heaton stats from 2 years ago suggests it isn't Tom's presence that has done it, it is form of the defenders. Harts stats are quite similar to Tom's from 2016/17, but Hart has produced more "worldies" from very close range.

The bit where I do concur with people though, is that whilst Heaton has marginally more high claims, punches, catches than Hart, Pope has FAR more than either - 52 high claims last season to Tom's 6 this season. More throw outs too (ball retention). I can certainly see the argument for Pope stabilising the defence, less so Tom, when he and Hart are much of a muchness.

Worth also adding that Pope didn't play Chelsea or Spurs twice last season, and Tom still has three of the top six still to play.

An interesting statistical debate aside though, we can all agree that the team has done brilliantly since Boxing Day apart from 1 minor blip.

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby FCBurnley » Sun Apr 07, 2019 5:03 pm

What if Mcneil had played all season ? and why is Pope not on the bench ?

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Re: What if Heaton Had Been Fit All Season?

Postby fanzone » Sun Apr 07, 2019 5:28 pm

Then week wouldn't have spunked a sh1te load on Hart


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