The next Tory Leader..

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Vino blanco
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Vino blanco » Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:20 pm

You are absolutely Andrew, it has to be the Boris choice.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:21 pm

dsr wrote:I think "Morton's Fork" is perhaps the term you're looking for. "Hobson's Choice" suggests that one of the options is at least slightly worth having.


True! My original choice of words was "Sophies Choice" which would have been an even worse way to describe it.

I guess there is no prospect of me voting for either in the coming GE.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:22 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Tax cuts for the better off and more austerity: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... unding-gap

Or decently funded public services, rail, water, and power taken control of, and climate change taken more seriously - paid for through higher taxes on the rich.

For most people I don't think the choice has been more stark for a long time.


When Ringo talks about people in their metropolitan bubble, he should be aiming it square at you Andrew (even though he aims at me)

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby claretonthecoast1882 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:29 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Tax cuts for the better off and more austerity: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... unding-gap

Or decently funded public services, rail, water, and power taken control of, and climate change taken more seriously - paid for through higher taxes on the rich.

For most people I don't think the choice has been more stark for a long time.



So it is Boris v Father Christmas ?

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby dsr » Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:36 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Tax cuts for the better off and more austerity: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... unding-gap

Or decently funded public services, rail, water, and power taken control of, and climate change taken more seriously - paid for through higher taxes on the rich.

For most people I don't think the choice has been more stark for a long time.

There will never be enough money to supply what the schools want and claim they need. Funding is vastly higher than it used to be it could double again and there would still be things they want to spend money on, but can't.

Pastoral care being needed is a slur on the parents, but if the parent's can't or won't cope, then so be it.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby RingoMcCartney » Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:56 pm

If Rory Stewart is the answer. I'd hate to think what the question is.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby timshorts » Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:56 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I think the upcoming Johnson v Corbyn general election will be the ultimate in Hobsons Choice.


Donald Trump v Hilary Clinton the sequel.

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aggi
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby aggi » Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:06 pm

Oof:

Image

Voting intentions under different leaders

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby MrTopTier » Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:11 pm

Boris will win by a country mile and at 13/8 on I would put my second house on it.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:44 pm

aggi wrote:Oof:

Image

Voting intentions under different leaders


Published in the Telegraph the day Boris stands for leader. Not worth the paper it's written on and has been savaged by polling experts.

But no doubt Boris is hot favourite

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby jrgbfc » Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:57 pm

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:So it is Boris v Father Christmas ?


Have things really got that bad that well funded public services are an impossible dream?
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby aggi » Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:04 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Published in the Telegraph the day Boris stands for leader. Not worth the paper it's written on and has been savaged by polling experts.

But no doubt Boris is hot favourite


I'll admit that I don't particularly rate Electoral Calculus who did this (not because of a party bias but because I believe that there is a high degree of error in attempting to extrapolate national polling across individual areas).

However, I think it's a pretty realistic proposition that Johnson would take a lot of Farage voters as he combines the pro-Brexit stance and the cult of personality.

My main suspicion would be the number of Labour votes they're taking, it seems way too high.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:08 pm

aggi wrote:I'll admit that I don't particularly rate Electoral Calculus who did this (not because of a party bias but because I believe that there is a high degree of error in attempting to extrapolate national polling across individual areas).

However, I think it's a pretty realistic proposition that Johnson would take a lot of Farage voters as he combines the pro-Brexit stance and the cult of personality.

My main suspicion would be the number of Labour votes they're taking, it seems way too high.


They are clearly massively exaggerating the "Johnson effect" as he is their man.

I think Lab vote would hold up surprisingly well, but not enough to win anywhere near outright and they would be dependent on a coalition of Nationalists and Lib Dems to even try to run a government.

Also not sure the Brexit Party will get seats unless they run in all of them, because some of the more Eurosceptic seats are big Conservative majorities and that is the demographic they need to win votes.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby dsr » Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:19 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:They are clearly massively exaggerating the "Johnson effect" as he is their man.

I think Lab vote would hold up surprisingly well, but not enough to win anywhere near outright and they would be dependent on a coalition of Nationalists and Lib Dems to even try to run a government.

Also not sure the Brexit Party will get seats unless they run in all of them, because some of the more Eurosceptic seats are big Conservative majorities and that is the demographic they need to win votes.

Until we know what policy the Tories will have at the next general election, and what policy Labour will have at the next general election, and when that general election is going to be, and whether Farage and [insert Tory leader] will form an electoral pact, then any opinion polls and extrapolation from them is a waste of time. Might as well put your finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing and use wind direction as your guide.

I reckon they're all at about 20% (give or take +/- 5%) - Tory, Labour, Liberal, Brexit, and The Rest. Could be very interesting.
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:23 pm

Dominic Grieve has just let off the nuclear option in Parliament if this "No Deal" stuff doesn't pass.

Says he will bring down the government if it doesn't, and I doubt he will be alone.

Its all a bit silly, and actually legislating against a "No Deal" makes perfect sense, as it would then mean the option being argued for by the zealots wouldn't be possible and it might (stress might!) be a way of reaching a consensus for a deal.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby HatfieldClaret » Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:33 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Dominic Grieve has just let off the nuclear option in Parliament if this "No Deal" stuff doesn't pass.

Says he will bring down the government if it doesn't, and I doubt he will be alone.

Its all a bit silly, and actually legislating against a "No Deal" makes perfect sense, as it would then mean the option being argued for by the zealots wouldn't be possible and it might (stress might!) be a way of reaching a consensus for a deal.


Only if remain was off the table also ?
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:45 pm

if it meant "No Deal" was 100% off the table, then its probably worth it.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:51 pm

Irrelevant now like!

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby IanMcL » Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:03 pm

They did also predict May would win with a 200 seat majority!

Anyone thing of voting for any Tory needs electric shock treatment. The choice of leader for all the parties, demonstrates why sticking with Europe is best. They help basket cases.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby aggi » Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:32 pm

aggi wrote:Johnson has done well to get everyone to forget about him taking cocaine https://www.standard.co.uk/news/boris-j ... 78599.html

I'm not sure who's running his campaign but they're doing a good job of keeping him and the press under control.


A journalist did ask about it. The response was for Johnson to ignore it and MPs to boo the journalist. What a standard of political discourse we've reached.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby AndrewJB » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:17 am

dsr wrote:There will never be enough money to supply what the schools want and claim they need. Funding is vastly higher than it used to be it could double again and there would still be things they want to spend money on, but can't.

Pastoral care being needed is a slur on the parents, but if the parent's can't or won't cope, then so be it.

https://fullfact.org/education/spending ... s-england/

Funding for 2017/18 to 2019/20 remains lower than in 2015.

I've been a school governor for over ten years since 2004, and I can tell you that schools work with what they're given by the government. When you sit down at a governor's meeting to consider the budget, nobody tells the head teacher that she has to go back to the government and get more money. I've been at several in the last few years where we've had to identify savings, and this inevitably leads to the question of; "what will have the least impact for the children?" That's the bottom line. I've seen a few "fiscally minded" people join the body with the view of helping to "trim the fat", and realise very quickly that the school is more tightly run than many businesses of a similar size (that don't have a unionised staff). Of all of these fiscally minded people, the school has changed them and their way of thinking, more than they changed the school.

The school in the link doesn't have pastoral care as some sort of an adornment. The school has recognised that they need it, and in the budget cuts those were the positions (possibly among others) to go, and the first ones to be re-filled if they have the budget for it. So obviously these weren't people just sitting around doing nothing, and now they're not there, there is an extra strain on the rest of the staff. And this has been caused by government cuts. The government chose to cut, because we also know they've continued Osborne's policy of lowering corporation tax. I think there are starker examples of what government austerity has done to our country and people, but this is one small example of the government prioritising the wealth of the richest in this country over the wellbeing and education of the majority.
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby dsr » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:30 am

AndrewJB wrote:https://fullfact.org/education/spending-schools-england/

Funding for 2017/18 to 2019/20 remains lower than in 2015.

I've been a school governor for over ten years since 2004, and I can tell you that schools work with what they're given by the government. When you sit down at a governor's meeting to consider the budget, nobody tells the head teacher that she has to go back to the government and get more money. I've been at several in the last few years where we've had to identify savings, and this inevitably leads to the question of; "what will have the least impact for the children?" That's the bottom line. I've seen a few "fiscally minded" people join the body with the view of helping to "trim the fat", and realise very quickly that the school is more tightly run than many businesses of a similar size (that don't have a unionised staff). Of all of these fiscally minded people, the school has changed them and their way of thinking, more than they changed the school.

The school in the link doesn't have pastoral care as some sort of an adornment. The school has recognised that they need it, and in the budget cuts those were the positions (possibly among others) to go, and the first ones to be re-filled if they have the budget for it. So obviously these weren't people just sitting around doing nothing, and now they're not there, there is an extra strain on the rest of the staff. And this has been caused by government cuts. The government chose to cut, because we also know they've continued Osborne's policy of lowering corporation tax. I think there are starker examples of what government austerity has done to our country and people, but this is one small example of the government prioritising the wealth of the richest in this country over the wellbeing and education of the majority.

I'm thinking longer term than that. Anyone aged 70 born in Colne went to school in classes of 50 with one teacher and no classroom assistants, and writing on slates. Funding has (more or less) continuously, and vastly, improved since then.

There are plenty of non-financial reasons why a 50-to-1 staff ratio won't do any more. Some, I dare say, down to parents, and plenty because children don't get as much attention as they need - though I'm by no means convinced that the average 20 year old is better educated than the average 70 year old. But that's another story.

And I know that teachers spend vast amounts of time doing pointless form-filling and other wastes of time. According to union figures (last I heard), teachers are spending only a third of their working lives with the children.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby AndrewJB » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:43 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:When Ringo talks about people in their metropolitan bubble, he should be aiming it square at you Andrew (even though he aims at me)

Metropolitan bubble? Moi?

I'm not engaging my inner Ringo - trying to force on you a yes or no answer (honest) - but I think the options I laid out above were quite accurate. I know you hate Corbyn, but in terms of having either a Johnson led Conservative government, or a Corbyn led Labour one, your interests will be, by a large margin, met more by the latter than the former.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby AndrewJB » Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:51 am

dsr wrote:I'm thinking longer term than that. Anyone aged 70 born in Colne went to school in classes of 50 with one teacher and no classroom assistants, and writing on slates. Funding has (more or less) continuously, and vastly, improved since then.

There are plenty of non-financial reasons why a 50-to-1 staff ratio won't do any more. Some, I dare say, down to parents, and plenty because children don't get as much attention as they need - though I'm by no means convinced that the average 20 year old is better educated than the average 70 year old. But that's another story.

And I know that teachers spend vast amounts of time doing pointless form-filling and other wastes of time. According to union figures (last I heard), teachers are spending only a third of their working lives with the children.

Okay, you're talking about my parents' generation, and slates had disappeared by then, so let's not exaggerate. Everything has moved on over the last few decades, and I'm glad education has done so as well in terms of technology. I'm glad you're looking at a longer term than just a few years, because we can see that when education became a public requirement, that the country prospered as a result. And we can see that after WW2 education allowed people to break through class boundaries in huge numbers. Education proved that intelligence has little to do with the wealth of the parents.

Is the average 20 year old really less well educated than the average 70 year old? By what measure?

What kind of "useless" forms are teachers filling in rather than teaching?

If you were PM would you cut funding to education in order to fund a tax break to corporations, or would you go the other way?

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby claretonthecoast1882 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:50 am

jrgbfc wrote:Have things really got that bad that well funded public services are an impossible dream?



Well they do say Corbyn appeals to the gullible

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:56 am

AndrewJB wrote:Metropolitan bubble? Moi?

I'm not engaging my inner Ringo - trying to force on you a yes or no answer (honest) - but I think the options I laid out above were quite accurate. I know you hate Corbyn, but in terms of having either a Johnson led Conservative government, or a Corbyn led Labour one, your interests will be, by a large margin, met more by the latter than the former.


I don't hate Corbyn Andrew. I think he's bloody useless. I save my hatred for people like Farage and worse.

And I don't want "bloody useless" people running the country.

And I broadly agree that a Lab government under a sensible, pragmatic, popular leader would be much better than an Conservative one.

Let me know when Labour get one of those.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby TVC15 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:23 am

aggi wrote:A journalist did ask about it. The response was for Johnson to ignore it and MPs to boo the journalist. What a standard of political discourse we've reached.


He did answer it - as he knew it was coming. But because he was running that press conference it was quickly moved on.
Will be interesting if he agrees to a one to one interview. I doubt very much he will let Marr have 15 minutes with him based on what he saw happened to Gove. Boris has more skeletons than the rest of the leadership candidates put together - it would be carnage and he knows it.
Just like Gove he will also have knowingly lied on his ESTA forms and in many other vetting processes but if he ever does get asked the question he will have his cleverly worded legal response “I don’t believe I have ever lied” etc etc.

If somebody had have told me 5 years ago that we would have Donald Trump and Boris Johnson leading America and GB i’d have assumed they would have been referring to some kind of cross Atlantic celebrity It’s a Knockout TV special

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby dsr » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:26 am

AndrewJB wrote:Okay, you're talking about my parents' generation, and slates had disappeared by then, so let's not exaggerate. Everything has moved on over the last few decades, and I'm glad education has done so as well in terms of technology. I'm glad you're looking at a longer term than just a few years, because we can see that when education became a public requirement, that the country prospered as a result. And we can see that after WW2 education allowed people to break through class boundaries in huge numbers. Education proved that intelligence has little to do with the wealth of the parents.

Is the average 20 year old really less well educated than the average 70 year old? By what measure?

What kind of "useless" forms are teachers filling in rather than teaching?

If you were PM would you cut funding to education in order to fund a tax break to corporations, or would you go the other way?

Slates were still in use in 1955. My mother taught with them.

It's true that education post-war, particularly in the "golden age" of grammar schools, was a big help to social mobility. Pre-war grammar schools were basically for the middle classes; post-war, they became much more inclusive. Of course, part of that was the changes in society as well. And I have never had any doubts that intelligence isn't related to wealth.

But I know plenty of people in the 70+ age bracket, and they are certainly no less educated than the 20 year olds - and that's not just because of experience of life. And, incidentally, unless the country's prosperity was brought about from 1970 by twenty year olds and younger, it must be the current 70+'s (and their parents) who brought it out. Have literacy rates for school leavers improved since 1955?

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:31 am

dsr wrote:Slates were still in use in 1955. My mother taught with them.

It's true that education post-war, particularly in the "golden age" of grammar schools, was a big help to social mobility. Pre-war grammar schools were basically for the middle classes; post-war, they became much more inclusive. Of course, part of that was the changes in society as well. And I have never had any doubts that intelligence isn't related to wealth.

But I know plenty of people in the 70+ age bracket, and they are certainly no less educated than the 20 year olds - and that's not just because of experience of life. And, incidentally, unless the country's prosperity was brought about from 1970 by twenty year olds and younger, it must be the current 70+'s (and their parents) who brought it out. Have literacy rates for school leavers improved since 1955?


No offence, we'd be proper f**ked if we put our future in the hands of a bunch of 70+ year olds with entrenched opinions about stuff.......oh ****

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Imploding Turtle » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:41 am

I wonder how many Tories would welcome help from a foreign power to win an election here.
I know we all have a lot to say about how **** our politicians are, but aside from Farage i think we can all be reasonably confident that none of the Tory candidates, or other political party leaders, would welcome or solicit the assistance of a foreign country to get elected here.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Blackrod » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:02 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:I don't hate Corbyn Andrew. I think he's bloody useless. I save my hatred for people like Farage and worse.

And I don't want "bloody useless" people running the country.

And I broadly agree that a Lab government under a sensible, pragmatic, popular leader would be much better than an Conservative one.

Let me know when Labour get one of those.


The current government need a credible opposition to be held accountable and challenged properly. Even as a non Labour voter it’s clear to me that Corbyn and the likes of Abbott do not provide this. I just don’t see how he is electable. He is true to his own beliefs but his views are not popular. There seem to be a lot of disenfranchised Labour voters.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:11 am

Blackrod wrote:The current government need a credible opposition to be held accountable and challenged properly. Even as a non Labour voter it’s clear to me that Corbyn and the likes of Abbott do not provide this. I just don’t see how he is electable. He is true to his own beliefs but his views are not popular. There seem to be a lot of disenfranchised Labour voters.


I'm not a Lab voter either, but Labour failure to capitalise on the complete disarray of the Tories can't be blamed on smears and the MSM.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby AndrewJB » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:18 am

dsr wrote:Slates were still in use in 1955. My mother taught with them.

It's true that education post-war, particularly in the "golden age" of grammar schools, was a big help to social mobility. Pre-war grammar schools were basically for the middle classes; post-war, they became much more inclusive. Of course, part of that was the changes in society as well. And I have never had any doubts that intelligence isn't related to wealth.

But I know plenty of people in the 70+ age bracket, and they are certainly no less educated than the 20 year olds - and that's not just because of experience of life. And, incidentally, unless the country's prosperity was brought about from 1970 by twenty year olds and younger, it must be the current 70+'s (and their parents) who brought it out. Have literacy rates for school leavers improved since 1955?

You should put yourself forward to be a school governor. You'll see that schools aren't money pits where funding just disappears. There's too much oversight for that to happen - unless it's an academy. You'll see that the professionalism within teaching has come on massively over the last few decades. That time spent away from students is time learning how to be better - observing another teacher and taking courses. As a governor I attend training to be a better governor. You'll be faced with LGBT and other diversity issues, and see they're not black and white, but very complex, but then you'll also feel the immense satisfaction after working toward a solution. You should do it.
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby dsr » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:22 am

AndrewJB wrote:You should put yourself forward to be a school governor. You'll see that schools aren't money pits where funding just disappears. ...

I'm not saying they are. I'm just saying that no matter how much funding improves, as it has been improving for decades, there will never be enough money to pay for everything that might benefit the children. (And casting a smidgeon of doubt as to whether all of it is strictly necessary.)

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby AndrewJB » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:33 am

Blackrod wrote:The current government need a credible opposition to be held accountable and challenged properly. Even as a non Labour voter it’s clear to me that Corbyn and the likes of Abbott do not provide this. I just don’t see how he is electable. He is true to his own beliefs but his views are not popular. There seem to be a lot of disenfranchised Labour voters.

I'm sorry, but you're talking rubbish. In what ways have Labour not opposed the government sufficiently under Corbyn?

Before Corbyn, Labour abstained on the vote that changed the law to bring about the Windrush Scandal (except for Corbyn and Abbott, and a handful of others). Labour also abstained on votes that cut benefits. Being slightly to the left of the Tories was not being a credible opposition. Under Corbyn Labour no longer do this. There is a huge gulf between the two parties now in terms of policy.

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tiger76
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby tiger76 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:35 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:I don't hate Corbyn Andrew. I think he's bloody useless. I save my hatred for people like Farage and worse.

And I don't want "bloody useless" people running the country.

And I broadly agree that a Lab government under a sensible, pragmatic, popular leader would be much better than an Conservative one.

Let me know when Labour get one of those.


You and millions of others LC,the important adjective is pragmatic,everyone is spouting dogma,when the nation is crying out for a uniting force,Rory Stewart could be that man for the Tories,Keir Starmer as Labour leader would command attention,they are 2 politicians that emerge from the brexit debacle with credit,but both major parties seem intent on pursuing ideological paths to the detriment of the electorate.
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:37 am

AndrewJB wrote:I'm sorry, but you're talking rubbish. In what ways have Labour not opposed the government sufficiently under Corbyn?

Before Corbyn, Labour abstained on the vote that changed the law to bring about the Windrush Scandal (except for Corbyn and Abbott, and a handful of others). Labour also abstained on votes that cut benefits. Being slightly to the left of the Tories was not being a credible opposition. Under Corbyn Labour no longer do this. There is a huge gulf between the two parties now in terms of policy.


And a huge gulf in the middle where the majority of the UK voters sit
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AndrewJB
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby AndrewJB » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:53 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:I don't hate Corbyn Andrew. I think he's bloody useless. I save my hatred for people like Farage and worse.

And I don't want "bloody useless" people running the country.

And I broadly agree that a Lab government under a sensible, pragmatic, popular leader would be much better than an Conservative one.

Let me know when Labour get one of those.

I've had this conversation with quite a few Green Party people, and LibDem supporters. Corbyn clearly isn't "useless" because he's revived a Labour party that was sinking into oblivion. The membership figures are there for all to see. Before him the party was triangulating itself up its own arse. Now it actually stands for things. I'm sure that Burnham or Kendall (or maybe even Owen Smith) would look and sound better at the dispatch box than Corbyn has, but none of them put forward a truly positive platform.

As much as I dislike the Tories, there's no denying that they've faithfully served the .01% during the entirety of their time in office, and as crap as things are, all of their promises for the future are based around continuing to look after the rich. I just want a Labour Party who look to the needs of everyone else, and with Corbyn we have that.
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:58 am

AndrewJB wrote:I've had this conversation with quite a few Green Party people, and LibDem supporters. Corbyn clearly isn't "useless" because he's revived a Labour party that was sinking into oblivion. The membership figures are there for all to see. Before him the party was triangulating itself up its own arse. Now it actually stands for things. I'm sure that Burnham or Kendall (or maybe even Owen Smith) would look and sound better at the dispatch box than Corbyn has, but none of them put forward a truly positive platform.

As much as I dislike the Tories, there's no denying that they've faithfully served the .01% during the entirety of their time in office, and as crap as things are, all of their promises for the future are based around continuing to look after the rich. I just want a Labour Party who look to the needs of everyone else, and with Corbyn we have that.


You have lots of members.

And under Corbyn you've lost in 2017, lost seats in the 2019 council elections, got decimated in the European elections, and just about held on in Peterborough (thankfully!).

You can say he's whatever you want, but being a political party is about winning elections if you are Labour or the Conservatives. He's not doing that, and won't be doing that.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby aggi » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:00 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:And a huge gulf in the middle where the majority of the UK voters sit


But yet they still don't vote for the party in the middle which suggests maybe the voters don't sit there.

I don't really see the point of Labour becoming a slightly left tinged lib dems. Do we really want our major parties starting in the centre and going right from there?

Personally I don't think that Corbyn and his policies are that bad. They're left leaning but they are in no way as extreme as many like to make out and not dissimilar to plenty of other European countries.

I would say his position is untenable though. It may or may not be his own fault but I can't see that he's ever going to shake the image that he has now to turn the labour into an effective opposition party in the eyes of many. Given how badly the past few years have gone he should have absolutely been making hay but his approval ratings are still terrible.
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby AndrewJB » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:05 am

dsr wrote:I'm not saying they are. I'm just saying that no matter how much funding improves, as it has been improving for decades, there will never be enough money to pay for everything that might benefit the children. (And casting a smidgeon of doubt as to whether all of it is strictly necessary.)

You can say that about anything. Never enough funding for defense, or for my wine rack. The problem is that the government has CUT funding for education. The government has also reduced the rate at which corporations pay income tax. Their priorities don't align with those of the majority of people.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby TVC15 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:10 am

AndrewJB wrote:I've had this conversation with quite a few Green Party people, and LibDem supporters. Corbyn clearly isn't "useless" because he's revived a Labour party that was sinking into oblivion. The membership figures are there for all to see. Before him the party was triangulating itself up its own arse. Now it actually stands for things. I'm sure that Burnham or Kendall (or maybe even Owen Smith) would look and sound better at the dispatch box than Corbyn has, but none of them put forward a truly positive platform.

As much as I dislike the Tories, there's no denying that they've faithfully served the .01% during the entirety of their time in office, and as crap as things are, all of their promises for the future are based around continuing to look after the rich. I just want a Labour Party who look to the needs of everyone else, and with Corbyn we have that.


Maybe he’s not useless at somethings - like galvanising his membership (though even there it remains divided with some pretty shocking stories about these Momentum Nutters)

But on the things that matter when you are the leader of the opposition he has been worse than useless.
He has presided behind probably the most incompetent and derided government in memory during a period when the country and the Tory party has never been so divided and a PM who has rarely been so disliked.
It’s been a period dominated by one issue and in 3 years Corbyn has never at any time been able to seize the opportunity to provide a clear position for the Labour Party - and that’s partly because he has never had a clear position on his views on Europe himself and he had surrounded himself with the poorest set of shadow cabinet people you could ever imagine - with the exception of a couple of decent people.

So despite the utter chaos Corbyn still finds himself regularly behind others in the polls and scoring embarrassingly lowly when people are asked about his ability to lead the country.

The only hope for Labour is to get rid of him and 90% of his shadow cabinet....he’s worse than useless

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:13 am

aggi wrote:But yet they still don't vote for the party in the middle which suggests maybe the voters don't sit there.

I don't really see the point of Labour becoming a slightly left tinged lib dems. Do we really want our major parties starting in the centre and going right from there?

Personally I don't think that Corbyn and his policies are that bad. They're left leaning but they are in no way as extreme as many like to make out and not dissimilar to plenty of other European countries.

I would say his position is untenable though. It may or may not be his own fault but I can't see that he's ever going to shake the image that he has now to turn the labour into an effective opposition party in the eyes of many. Given how badly the past few years have gone he should have absolutely been making hay but his approval ratings are still terrible.


Voters are starting to turn away from who they have always voted for though. I fully agree (already have said it on numerous times on here) that Labour policies are probably the best ones out there in 2017 (which is why I voted for them largely) and I also agree that he's regarded as "toxic" (for a whole variety of reasons that are very, very hard to disprove)

I know (again thankfully!) this board isn't a barometer of public opinion, but there are a lot of ex-Labour voters on here who won't for them under Corbyn (for a variety of reasons).

Same problem with the Conservatives btw (but that is 100% over Brexit)

Both parties have decided to veer towards their core support, but that alienates the centre. Thats why change uk formed (just because they messed it up doesn't change the fact that they saw the votes there) and thats why the Lib Dems and Greens surged.

I don't know if it will continue, but its certainly makes it more interesting!
Last edited by Lancasterclaret on Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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aggi
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby aggi » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:16 am

AndrewJB wrote:Is the average 20 year old really less well educated than the average 70 year old? By what measure?


I can't really comment on 70 year olds but I look at what 10 year olds are doing nowadays compared to what I was doing 30 years ago and it is far more advanced.

As an example, this is a sample of the writing test that 10 and 11 year olds do https://www.sats2019.uk/sats-quiz-english/

In terms of funding, I'd agree that it's very tight and also agree that it's much higher than it used to be.

However, what constitutes a good education has changed a lot too. For instance how SEN pupils were treated in the past is a lot different to now, but in return it needs more financing for things like teaching assistants.

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Lancasterclaret
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:22 am

aggi wrote:I can't really comment on 70 year olds but I look at what 10 year olds are doing nowadays compared to what I was doing 30 years ago and it is far more advanced.

As an example, this is a sample of the writing test that 10 and 11 year olds do https://www.sats2019.uk/sats-quiz-english/

In terms of funding, I'd agree that it's very tight and also agree that it's much higher than it used to be.

However, what constitutes a good education has changed a lot too. For instance how SEN pupils were treated in the past is a lot different to now, but in return it needs more financing for things like teaching assistants.


The last line is spot on. Most schools are dropping teaching assistants to save cash, and because the majority of kids and parents are not SEN, they justify it to themselves.

My sons secondary school ask for a "voluntary" contribution at the start of the year. I doubt they are the only ones that do that.

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If it be your will
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby If it be your will » Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:55 am

TVC15 wrote:Maybe he’s not useless at somethings - like galvanising his membership (though even there it remains divided with some pretty shocking stories about these Momentum Nutters)

But on the things that matter when you are the leader of the opposition he has been worse than useless.
He has presided behind probably the most incompetent and derided government in memory during a period when the country and the Tory party has never been so divided and a PM who has rarely been so disliked.
It’s been a period dominated by one issue and in 3 years Corbyn has never at any time been able to seize the opportunity to provide a clear position for the Labour Party - and that’s partly because he has never had a clear position on his views on Europe himself and he had surrounded himself with the poorest set of shadow cabinet people you could ever imagine - with the exception of a couple of decent people.

So despite the utter chaos Corbyn still finds himself regularly behind others in the polls and scoring embarrassingly lowly when people are asked about his ability to lead the country.

The only hope for Labour is to get rid of him and 90% of his shadow cabinet....he’s worse than useless

Nah. He's great, is Corbyn.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Erasmus » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:13 pm

My son's primary school is having to go down to half a day on Fridays, a 10% reduction in his schooling. Yet the government still has the effrontery to say it has 'put the country back on its feet'. Oh and the bins don't get emptied, you have wait three weeks for an appointment with the doctor, NHS is missing cancer treatment targets by some distance, social care is collapsing. And mainly because the Conservatives have used the country's economic problems as an excuse for ideological austerity aimed primarily at the poorest and most vulnerable sections of society. Whatever you think of Corbyn, he can't be worse than what the present lot have done.
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby Lancasterclaret » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:14 pm

Erasmus wrote:My son's primary school is having to go down to half a day on Fridays, a 10% reduction in his schooling. Yet the government still has the effrontery to say it has 'put the country back on its feet'. Oh and the bins don't get emptied, you have wait three weeks for an appointment with the doctor, NHS is missing cancer treatment targets by some distance, social care is collapsing. And mainly because the Conservatives have used the country's economic problems as an excuse for ideological austerity aimed primarily at the poorest and most vulnerable sections of society. Whatever you think of Corbyn, he can't be worse than what the present lot have done.


All true, but it can always get worse. See Brexit.

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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby claretonthecoast1882 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:15 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:All true, but it can always get worse. See Brexit.



All true, but it can always get worse. See Corbyn :D

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aggi
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Re: The next Tory Leader..

Postby aggi » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:22 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Voters are starting to turn away from who they have always voted for though. I fully agree (already have said it on numerous times on here) that Labour policies are probably the best ones out there in 2017 (which is why I voted for them largely) and I also agree that he's regarded as "toxic" (for a whole variety of reasons that are very, very hard to disprove)

I know (again thankfully!) this board isn't a barometer of public opinion, but there are a lot of ex-Labour voters on here who won't for them under Corbyn (for a variety of reasons).

Same problem with the Conservatives btw (but that is 100% over Brexit)

Both parties have decided to veer towards their core support, but that alienates the centre. Thats why change uk formed (just because they messed it up doesn't change the fact that they saw the votes there) and thats why the Lib Dems and Greens surged.

I don't know if it will continue, but its certainly makes it more interesting!



So it sounds as if you don't think the party needs to move more central (you largely agreed with the policies) just that the leader needs replacing.

I don't think votes for the Greens are because Labour are moving away from the centre, the Greens are to the left of Labour in most policies.


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