What does it confirm?Blackrod wrote:I didn’t vote as so fed up with it all. At least the Brexit Party will hold Juncker and the rest of the gravy train ( cue for some people in uproar over that term such as the resident troll) to account.
All this harking on about 2nd referendums will just damage British democracy even more. When do we stop having votes ? When everyone is satisfied with the result ? The public has spoken and May has failed to deliver what they want even though it was a difficult task. Hopefully a new person will. This election result reconfirms what the public want.
European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
And its too late for them now to claim they have always backed a 2nd ref, that field has been taken by the others.JohnMcGreal wrote:It was a bad night for Labour, but there's a really clear and obvious way they can outflank the Lib Dems/Greens/Chuk/SNP in a GE.
The pro-Remain parties are pledging to support a second referendum, which is winning them a lot of votes.
If Labour went a step further than that, and stood on a manifesto of revoking article 50 and remaining as a full member of the EU, they will leave the other parties for dust. Forget the second referendum. Obtain a clear and legitimate mandate to remain in the EU by winning enough seats in a general election to do just that.
I seriously doubt they'll have the courage to do it, but there's a big opportunity there for them if they're ready to take it.
Glad I'm not a Labour voter or strategist this morning. Or even a Conservative voter or strategist.
Whichever way they jump, they lose votes.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Maybe true but they need to limit the amount of votes they lose.Lancasterclaret wrote:And its too late for them now to claim they have always backed a 2nd ref, that field has been taken by the others.
Glad I'm not a Labour voter or strategist this morning. Or even a Conservative voter or strategist.
Whichever way they jump, they lose votes.
They only have one option now.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
They do, but the old man running it won't want to, and his support base will turn (like Ringo does on Brexiteers when they don't agree with him on British steel) and attack anyone who dares to question him.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Absolutely incredible that some people believe it would be appropriate to permanently revoke Article 50.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Yep. 3 years of fence sitting has ended up pleasing nobody. Who would have thought.Lancasterclaret wrote:And its too late for them now to claim they have always backed a 2nd ref, that field has been taken by the others.
Glad I'm not a Labour voter or strategist this morning. Or even a Conservative voter or strategist.
Whichever way they jump, they lose votes.
You're right saying that they'll lose votes whichever way they go. But I'd argue that by being a bit of a soft leave party means they aren't convincing enough to attract leave voters, and they've also alienated people who want to remain.
If they came out as a proper remain party pledging to revoke and remain, they will lose a lot of their leave voters, but they'll make huge gains from remain ones.
Labour simply has to become the party of revoke and remain in order to survive. If they carry on sitting on the fence, they'll get a pasting at the next GE, and they'll deserve it.
Last edited by JohnMcGreal on Mon May 27, 2019 9:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
To completely revoke Article 50 would be as undemocratic as it gets, and would cause an absolute shitstorm.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
If a party won a general election on that ticket, what would be the problem? They will have been given a mandate from the public to do that. It's how things ought to be done in a parliamentary democracy such as ours.taio wrote:Absolutely incredible that some people believe it would be appropriate to permanently revoke Article 50.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Agree that would be the sensible and logical thing to do - unfortunately there are 2 big issuesJohnMcGreal wrote:It was a bad night for Labour, but there's a really clear and obvious way they can outflank the Lib Dems/Greens/Chuk/SNP in a GE.
The pro-Remain parties are pledging to support a second referendum, which is winning them a lot of votes.
If Labour went a step further than that, and stood on a manifesto of revoking article 50 and remaining as a full member of the EU, they will leave the other parties for dust. Forget the second referendum. Obtain a clear and legitimate mandate to remain in the EU by winning enough seats in a general election to do just that.
I seriously doubt they'll have the courage to do it, but there's a big opportunity there for them if they're ready to take it.
1) the labour leader has wanted to leave Europe for many years...and his leadership team is largely incompetent and completely divided
2) when was the last time we saw anything logical and sensible in British politics ?!
But yep if they do come out to support revoking article 50 and remain it could be game on.....though it could also cause a volatility in the country we have not seen for many decades if we do not leave Europe.
It’s hard to seeing this ending well under any scenario.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
How would it be undemocratic if people voted for it?Murger wrote:To completely revoke Article 50 would be as undemocratic as it gets, and would cause an absolute shitstorm.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Well seeing as the first vote hasn't been enacted, why should people pay attention to the 2nd?JohnMcGreal wrote:How would it be undemocratic if people voted for it?
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
You haven't answered the question.Murger wrote:Well seeing as the first vote hasn't been enacted, why should people pay attention to the 2nd?
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
What the public want isn't at all clear, as demonstrated last night. The referendum of nearly three years ago is looking increasingly distant, and this isn't to say support for leave has lost it's puff, but that the narrow margin of victory can legitimately be called into question, and the public be asked to clarify their position. Let's see what the next Tory leader is able to accomplish (though with the same parliament, I can't honestly see whoever it ends up being able to come back with anything materially different to what May brought back.Blackrod wrote:I didn’t vote as so fed up with it all. At least the Brexit Party will hold Juncker and the rest of the gravy train ( cue for some people in uproar over that term such as the resident troll) to account.
All this harking on about 2nd referendums will just damage British democracy even more. When do we stop having votes ? When everyone is satisfied with the result ? The public has spoken and May has failed to deliver what they want even though it was a difficult task. Hopefully a new person will. This election result reconfirms what the public want.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Because a party's manifesto incorporates multiple policy proposals. If Labour was to run it's manifesto based solely on revoking A50 without any other policy you may have a point. But that would never happen.JohnMcGreal wrote:If a party won a general election on that ticket, what would be the problem? They will have been given a mandate from the public to do that. It's how things ought to be done in a parliamentary democracy such as ours.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Why haven't I? People voted in the 2016 referendum to leave, it hasn't happened.JohnMcGreal wrote:You haven't answered the question.
People voted in the 2017 GE for 2 parties that promised to deliver Brexit, it hasn't happened.
The Brexit Party won the single most seats in European elections, and now that isn't somehow good enough either. Do you see the pattern? The Remain FBPE crowd are lunatics.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
A majority is a majority. It’s a bit like losing 11-10 in a match and wanting a replay because you still scored 10 goals and it was a close game.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
The problem for me would be general elections use fptp, a much smaller number of the electorate would therefore have overturned the referendum. Running on a ticket of re-running the referendum gives everyone the opportunity to have their say again.JohnMcGreal wrote:If a party won a general election on that ticket, what would be the problem? They will have been given a mandate from the public to do that. It's how things ought to be done in a parliamentary democracy such as ours.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
You can't (well, you can but it's not very sensible) simultaneously say it's based on how they campaigned and then claim Labour in that camp (who didn't campaign 'Remain') based on some softer signals. That's exactly what Labour want - but then you end up with >100% because Labour signal both ways. Maybe now they'll change - although I don't believe Corbyn will give an unequivocal 'Remain' stance - but it can't be retrospective.nil_desperandum wrote:I think you do it on the basis of what they campaigned on???
(And as I pointed out very early in this thread Labour's executive position has swung strongly in favour of a Confirmatory Vote recently (even Corbyn), so the total now backing remain and / or a People's Vote is about 55%. This seems to mirror recent opinion polls that have remain on 55%)
The strongest message here BTW is for Labour, whose members are overwhelmingly anti-brexit and whose "supporters" are anti-brexit (according to polls) by approx 3 to 1.
For all the spin Farage puts on it about his party being only 6 weeks old, the BP vote is effectively UKip (in a new guise) + a relatively small swing from other parties, mainly ERG type Tories.
The other story that the country and Conservatives in particular should be concerned about, is that both Scotland and Wales have sent out a strong message, and - even before their votes come in - one can predict that there will be a good remain majority in NI.
Mr Cameron - what a mess you've made.
If you're claiming that Wales sent a clear message, you're just at the point of seeing what you want to. 36% Hard Leave, 42% Remain, 22% Who knows (theoretically Leave but I don't think either really know any more). On 37% turnout. That's not clear. That's an electorate about 40% of the size of the referendum who've jumped one way or the other. Layer on that the fact that this wasn't, even if many if us saw it that way, a plebiscite on the referendum and you're left with mush. Those who favour a second referendum will, of course, agree and say the only measure of that would be a second referendum.
Lots of people are reading these results in line with what they originally thought; Jacob Rees-Mogg is saying the message is clear that we must go for a 'No-deal' Brexit. It's really not.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Absolutely incredible that some people believe it would be appropriate to permanently leave on a "No Deal"taio wrote:Absolutely incredible that some people believe it would be appropriate to permanently revoke Article 50.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Its worrying when more than one person is using the "1-0 YOU LOST GET OVER IT" style on here.Blackrod wrote:A majority is a majority. It’s a bit like losing 11-10 in a match and wanting a replay because you still scored 10 goals and it was a close game.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
You can take what you want from these results. Brexit are UKIP + who despite winning the most seats haven’t got more votes than the Remain bloc. However the votes for the Remain bloc were boosted by votes from EU citizens who are ineligible to vote in a Referendum. A very low turnout, UKIP gone, Change gone.
What group will Brexit sit with?
What group will Brexit sit with?
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Fine, but we need to find a way out of this.Caballo wrote:The problem for me would be general elections use fptp, a much smaller number of the electorate would therefore have overturned the referendum. Running on a ticket of re-running the referendum gives everyone the opportunity to have their say again.
Thats the bottom line.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Slightly less incredible because as it stands there's more democratic legitimacy for no deal than permanent revocation of A50. That said my view is that neither should happen without a proper democratic process.Lancasterclaret wrote:Absolutely incredible that some people believe it would be appropriate to permanently leave on a "No Deal"
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Sound, 100% agree with the "democratic process bit", but there isn't anymore democratic legitimacy for a "No Deal" as no one* has voted for that either.taio wrote:Slightly less incredible because as it stands there's more democratic legitimacy for no deal than permanent revocation of A50. That said my view is that neither should happen without a proper democratic process.
*Yes, I know some of you might well have, but thats not what was explicitly said on the ballot paper or by the campaigns before the vote.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
There is more legitimacy in my view. I know loads of people who voted to leave the EU on whatever terms including without a deal. Revoking A50 without a vote woukd be absolutely the most undemocratic thing that could occur.Lancasterclaret wrote:Sound, 100% agree with the "democratic process bit", but there isn't anymore democratic legitimacy for a "No Deal" as no one* has voted for that either.
*Yes, I know some of you might well have, but thats not what was explicitly said on the ballot paper or by the campaigns before the vote.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
The remain camp are looking at the results and lumping their vote together and still coming up short. They are then lumping in the labour votes and conservative votes and hey presto!
As much as I despise Jeremy Corbyn he’s not simple and he knows that if the party was to go into a general election on a mandate to revoke article 50 they would lose.
A second referendum would just divide the country again with an extremely low swing either way.
At the end of the day when the country is split in this way the only fair deal is a compromise and this can only be achieved by leaving the no deal brexit on the table when negotiating with the EU. This Irish backstop was nothing but a smokescreen devised in Brussels in collusion with remain politicians (including a little help from that eel Tony Blair). They knew that such a deal could never pass parliament effectively circumventing the referendum and once again imposing their will on people who voted against them.
Its a real mess but when parliamentarians go against the will of the people who voted for them it never ends well.
As much as I despise Jeremy Corbyn he’s not simple and he knows that if the party was to go into a general election on a mandate to revoke article 50 they would lose.
A second referendum would just divide the country again with an extremely low swing either way.
At the end of the day when the country is split in this way the only fair deal is a compromise and this can only be achieved by leaving the no deal brexit on the table when negotiating with the EU. This Irish backstop was nothing but a smokescreen devised in Brussels in collusion with remain politicians (including a little help from that eel Tony Blair). They knew that such a deal could never pass parliament effectively circumventing the referendum and once again imposing their will on people who voted against them.
Its a real mess but when parliamentarians go against the will of the people who voted for them it never ends well.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
When people use simple maths and get it wrong as well it never ends well either.
Greens + LD + Change got more votes UK wide than Brexit + Ukip.
And yes, its a real mess and nothing suggests that anything currently being tried can sort it out.
Greens + LD + Change got more votes UK wide than Brexit + Ukip.
And yes, its a real mess and nothing suggests that anything currently being tried can sort it out.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Even under a manifesto commitment?taio wrote:There is more legitimacy in my view. I know loads of people who voted to leave the EU on whatever terms including without a deal. Revoking A50 without a vote woukd be absolutely the most undemocratic thing that could occur.
Not sure about that
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
This is quite staggering
In 2017, the Conservatives and Labour won 82.4% of the vote share.
In these European elections, the two main parties secured 23.1% of the vote share.
Fewer than one-in-four voters put in a tick in the box for one of two main parties.
In 2017, the Conservatives and Labour won 82.4% of the vote share.
In these European elections, the two main parties secured 23.1% of the vote share.
Fewer than one-in-four voters put in a tick in the box for one of two main parties.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Less so, but yes for the reasons already mentioned.Lancasterclaret wrote:Even under a manifesto commitment?
Not sure about that
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Anyone who thinks Jeramy Corbyn could win a general election is deluded and anyone who thinks he could win one on a ticket revoking article 50 needs committing.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
The referendum question was "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?". The majority voted Leave.taio wrote:Slightly less incredible because as it stands there's more democratic legitimacy for no deal than permanent revocation of A50. That said my view is that neither should happen without a proper democratic process.
Are you saying that Remaining in the EU is the most democratic way to satisfy the result of the vote, which was for Leave?
There are (it seems) three options. 1 - Leave, full stop. 2 - Remain, full stop. 3 - Leave on May's deal which, which is the only area where all parties are agreed - everyone agrees the deal is rubbish. You could argue that numbers 1 or 3 would satisfy the referendum result, but not that number 2 would.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
No - I'm saying revoking A50 to remain in the EU would be totally undemocraticdsr wrote:The referendum question was "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?". The majority voted Leave.
Are you saying that Remaining in the EU is the most democratic way to satisfy the result of the vote, which was for Leave?
There are (it seems) three options. 1 - Leave, full stop. 2 - Remain, full stop. 3 - Leave on May's deal which, which is the only area where all parties are agreed - everyone agrees the deal is rubbish. You could argue that numbers 1 or 3 would satisfy the referendum result, but not that number 2 would.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
I'm not sure that "Vote for us and we'll never let you vote again" is a vote-winner.JohnMcGreal wrote:It was a bad night for Labour, but there's a really clear and obvious way they can outflank the Lib Dems/Greens/Chuk/SNP in a GE.
The pro-Remain parties are pledging to support a second referendum, which is winning them a lot of votes.
If Labour went a step further than that, and stood on a manifesto of revoking article 50 and remaining as a full member of the EU, they will leave the other parties for dust. Forget the second referendum. Obtain a clear and legitimate mandate to remain in the EU by winning enough seats in a general election to do just that.
I seriously doubt they'll have the courage to do it, but there's a big opportunity there for them if they're ready to take it.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Seems weird as that is your positiondsr wrote:I'm not sure that "Vote for us and we'll never let you vote again" is a vote-winner.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
They have to do something though. They can't pretend that they are not hemorrhaging votes by sitting on the fence.If it be your will wrote:Do that and Labour will lose all intellectual coherence, all democratic legitimacy, and would be rightfully wiped out in the next general election.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Your daily remainder that of the 50 marginal seats Labour have to win to get a majority, 35 of them are leave voting seats.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/10 ... 6654369793" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/10 ... 6654369793" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
This sums it up nicely....
- Attachments
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Talking of right wing trolls, where is theroyaldyche and his Tommy Robinson support this morning?
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Busy trying to log on to PayPal to cover Tommeh’s lost deposit of 5 grand.Lancasterclaret wrote:Talking of right wing trolls, where is theroyaldyche and his Tommy Robinson support this morning?
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
I think its an open goal for the Conservatives if Labour continue to pretend their current strategy is working.If it be your will wrote:The last 30 Westminster opinion polls https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; show Labour leading in 25 and a tie in 5. Bizarre though you might think it is, Labour are currently on course for an overall majority!
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
The Euro Elections have brought up a lot of talking points which people can interpret whichever way they want.
People can say the Brexit Party are just UKIP in disguise but I think that’s too simple an argument. In 2014 UKIP were seen my many to be to the “right” of the Tory party with many policies reflecting that and subsequently they have imploded and moved even further to the right.
The Brexit Party have been clever in running just a one issue campaign and have “parked their tanks” in real traditional Labour voting areas such as Barnsley, Bolsover and Blaenau Gwent appealing to leave voters hence them topping the vote and this is why in my opinion Labour face the biggest problem in how they deal with the Brexit issue. By trying to appease both sides they have appealed to none and lost votes to the Lib Dem’s and the Greens in Remain issues. It will be interesting if they finally come down on a second referendum/stop Brexit whether or not they lose those traditional Labour voters in a GE.
The Lib Dem’s won 20% because they campaigned on a clear message, the question is can they keep those voters in a GE my inclination is that they won’t as they were seen as a safe protest vote in the Euro Election.
Going forward the only way to deal with the Brexit issue in my opinion is to have another referendum but this time with a clear choice either leave on WTO or remain with both sides signing a pledge to honour the result.
People can say the Brexit Party are just UKIP in disguise but I think that’s too simple an argument. In 2014 UKIP were seen my many to be to the “right” of the Tory party with many policies reflecting that and subsequently they have imploded and moved even further to the right.
The Brexit Party have been clever in running just a one issue campaign and have “parked their tanks” in real traditional Labour voting areas such as Barnsley, Bolsover and Blaenau Gwent appealing to leave voters hence them topping the vote and this is why in my opinion Labour face the biggest problem in how they deal with the Brexit issue. By trying to appease both sides they have appealed to none and lost votes to the Lib Dem’s and the Greens in Remain issues. It will be interesting if they finally come down on a second referendum/stop Brexit whether or not they lose those traditional Labour voters in a GE.
The Lib Dem’s won 20% because they campaigned on a clear message, the question is can they keep those voters in a GE my inclination is that they won’t as they were seen as a safe protest vote in the Euro Election.
Going forward the only way to deal with the Brexit issue in my opinion is to have another referendum but this time with a clear choice either leave on WTO or remain with both sides signing a pledge to honour the result.
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
Nicked from twitter
"Many congratulations to Nigel Farage for being elected as an unelected EU bureaucrat."
"Many congratulations to Nigel Farage for being elected as an unelected EU bureaucrat."
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
I genuinely don't understand what you've written, or maybe you didn't intend to say what you wrote.taio wrote:Absolutely incredible that some people believe it would be appropriate to permanently revoke Article 50.
How can any government permanently revoke Article 50?
It's part of being in the EU, and if it's revoked in October to give us more time to chart our course forward, then there's absolutely no reason why a future government can't trigger it again. (Isn't that how democracy works, or am I missing something?)
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
It's more complicated than that.JohnMcGreal wrote:If a party won a general election on that ticket, what would be the problem? They will have been given a mandate from the public to do that. It's how things ought to be done in a parliamentary democracy such as ours.
The GE is generally won with anywhere near 40% of the vote, thats nowhere near as confirmatory as the 51% who voted for Bexit.
The only way to get a genuine legitimacy for Revoking Article 50 would be a second referendum, but there is still no democratic reason to hold that again. The results yesterday show that the country is still split down the middle, so nothing changed there. After all the negativity spouted about the effects of leaving. After the completely biased coverage of the BBC regarding Brexit. The country is still split. Why don't retainers ask themselves why despite all of this negativity to Leaving, the country is still split. Can they not recognise that nothing has changed.That People still want to leave despite the scaremongering.
The other point I'd like to make is IF the referendum was re-run, and remain won 50.1% to leave 49.9%, would you think that after 3 years of negative campaigning , that would give you legitimacy to overturn the first referendum. The thing is, if their was a massive outpouring from the public to hold this second vote, I wouldn't like it, BUT I couldn't argue against it. Only there isn't. The only people who want a second vote are Remainers, in and out of the HOC. That isn't justification for doing it, and it certainly isn't democratic.
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
You are being pedantic to just disagree. The suggestion was that Labour should commit to revoking A50 to remain in the EU. It was absolutely said on the basis of long termism - the use of the word permanently was to reflect that this would not just be about revoking temporarily to give time for a deal to be agreed.nil_desperandum wrote:I genuinely don't understand what you've written, or maybe you didn't intend to say what you wrote.
How can any government permanently revoke Article 50?
It's part of being in the EU, and if it's revoked in October to give us more time to chart our course forward, then there's absolutely no reason why a future government can't trigger it again. (Isn't that how democracy works, or am I missing something?)
Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
No, I'm quite happy to have another referendum in due course about rejoining, once we have put the first referendum into practice. What I'm not happy with is the "vote again until you get it right" approach.Lancasterclaret wrote:Seems weird as that is your position
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Re: European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,
It is about time that the UK bring in what other countries do...make it mandatory to vote or get a fine....that way we would get a true representation of what the country thinks/wants