European Election Results .. due from 10 p.m. Sunday night...,

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Mon May 27, 2019 11:29 pm

AndrewJB wrote:Further up the thread I remarked about how often these rules are broken by different countries, who perhaps see it in their national interest to do so when they do, or believe their actions will find their way through the loopholes (see the links below). And there is nothing to stop a country from nationalising parts of its economy. Read these links for yourself and you'll see there are ways in which the government can direct investment into the economy without falling foul of EU state aid rules. As one link shows, Britain uses legitimate state aid less than a quarter as much as Germany does, and nearly half of France's total. Even then, the EU can not stop us from breaking their rules on state aid. There is no EU bureaucrat to physically or otherwise prevent us from doing so. There was no letter from them saying; "we hear you're considering state aid, so we're telling you you can't" They can only look into it afterwards. Far from being correct, your statement; "EU says no can do" isn't. It would have to be changed to; "did you do?"

Far from being pushed around on this issue we are likely to be the country that pushed strongest for restrictive state aid rules.

https://www.out-law.com/en/topics/eu--c ... state-aid/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.ippr.org/research/publicati ... and-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You’re wasting your time Andrew.

Darnhill Claret · Post by **Darnhill Claret** » Mon May 27, 2019 11:32 pm

London did not win the Premier League, the North-West did.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:24 am

Bfcboyo wrote:It won't matter when the EU has collapsed in ten years time.

I've read people say this with certainty before, but there isn't any evidence that it will happen. By all means persuade me if you have some though.

I actually think Britain is more likely to collapse before the EU does. Britain's membership of the EU was a major reason for Scots voting to remain during their referendum on independence. If Britain leaves the EU, we won't have a voice there to counsel against allowing an independent Scotland entry. In fact they might be fast tracked. Then we have Northern Ireland - an issue exacerbated by brexit no end.

This isn't "project fear" but just what we know.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:33 am

Darnhill Claret wrote:London did not win the Premier League, the North-West did.

I'm sure someone will come along with a graph to show how - given the number of ManU, City, and Liverpool (along with my solitary Burnley shirt) tops you see in London, London won it!!!

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:49 am

AndrewJB wrote:I've read people say this with certainty before, but there isn't any evidence that it will happen. By all means persuade me if you have some though.

I actually think Britain is more likely to collapse before the EU does. Britain's membership of the EU was a major reason for Scots voting to remain during their referendum on independence. If Britain leaves the EU, we won't have a voice there to counsel against allowing an independent Scotland entry. In fact they might be fast tracked. Then we have Northern Ireland - an issue exacerbated by brexit no end.

This isn't "project fear" but just what we know.

I'm sure there are many reasons why the Scots may want to leave the UK, but I doubt that being in the EU would be one of them. When they are part of the UK, it#s pretty clear that they want the UK to be in the EU. But when (yes, I say when) the UK leaves the EU, then if Scotland votes for independence, their EU membership would bring with it a big hard border with England - we know the EU will insist; how could they not? - and it will bring tariffs on 60% of their exports. Remember the EU will absolutely stop them from having favoured deals with the UK. It would be economic foolishness.

Of course, they could perfectly well vote to leave the UK without applying to the EU. They could perhaps apply for some sort of customs union with England.

(I think we can assume that the surviving UK would be more reasonable towards Scotland than the EU has been towards the UK.)

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue May 28, 2019 1:50 am

dsr wrote:I'm sure there are many reasons why the Scots may want to leave the UK, but I doubt that being in the EU would be one of them. When they are part of the UK, it#s pretty clear that they want the UK to be in the EU. But when (yes, I say when) the UK leaves the EU, then if Scotland votes for independence, their EU membership would bring with it a big hard border with England - we know the EU will insist; how could they not? - and it will bring tariffs on 60% of their exports. Remember the EU will absolutely stop them from having favoured deals with the UK. It would be economic foolishness.

Of course, they could perfectly well vote to leave the UK without applying to the EU. They could perhaps apply for some sort of customs union with England. (I think we can assume that the surviving UK would be more reasonable towards Scotland than the EU has been towards the UK.)

Or the EU could massively subsidise Scotland and leave the rest of the UK rotting on the vine. As you've said, it's not all about the money.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue May 28, 2019 6:10 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:Just my side?

Welk we know the figure plastered on the side of the bus was a complete lie and that the NHS won't receive a single extra penny once we leave the EU.

Chobulous · Post by **Chobulous** » Tue May 28, 2019 7:39 am

AndrewJB wrote:Or the EU could massively subsidise Scotland and leave the rest of the UK rotting on the vine. As you've said, it's not all about the money.

Swapping one form of dependence for another you mean

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue May 28, 2019 8:46 am

Spijed wrote:Welk we know the figure plastered on the side of the bus was a complete lie and that the NHS won't receive a single extra penny once we leave the EU.

I'm sick to death of explaining this on here Spijed.

Everyone who campaigned for the leave side could only put forward ideas of what we could use the extra money for.

Unless they are part of the government who allocate funds.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Tue May 28, 2019 9:51 am

TVC15 wrote: If any lessons have been learned from the last 3 years then any further referendum will be hopefully much more of an informed decision about the options - and probably more specific.
!

This is the point though after 3 years of having it rammed down our throats that we made a mistake, 3 years of telling us the catastrophe we would make in leaving, the voting pattern remains the same.
If the Lib Dems won 32% of the vote your claim might have some merit, but they didn't.
A second referendum would be as close again as the first. How could you validate the second when you've refused to validate the first. It would only serve to create even greater division in the country. Meanwhile businesses are getting shafted, because you cant plan for a future when you dont know what that future is. It's not remaining or leaving that hits them, but the constant dithering.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:21 am

Colburn_Claret wrote:This is the point though after 3 years of having it rammed down our throats that we made a mistake, 3 years of telling us the catastrophe we would make in leaving, the voting pattern remains the same.
If the Lib Dems won 32% of the vote your claim might have some merit, but they didn't.
.

You're still conveniently missing the point (or more likely ignoring it) that there was really only one "leave" option - Brexit Party, (ok +UKip), but multiple remain options on the ballot paper.
Why have you singled out the Lib Dems?. They were only one of 5 parties with an unequivocal "remain" policy.
You can't just ignore, Greens, SNP, Change UK, and Plaid Cymru votes. (Additionally of course 66% of votes cast in NI were for Alliance or Sinn Fein who are also "remain".)
Even ignoring the NI result, (which is calculated in a different way), the remain vote was over 40%

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:37 am

Brexit party and UKIP weren't the only leave options. They were the only "leave at once with no deal" options, and were both single issue parties with no reason to vote for them except to vote to leave the EU.

The other parties, especially the Greens, have other reasons to vote for them. The Greens, especially, did not campaign on the basis of whether or not to effect the EU referendum. They campaigned more on a climate change ticket. It's very likely that the majority of their members would vote to Remain even regardless of the referendum, but it wouldn't be 100%.

TonbridgeClaret · Post by **TonbridgeClaret** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:40 am

2.7 million EU citizens living in this country were entitled to vote in the European Elections. The majority would (obviously) have voted for remain. parties. However, they are not allowed to vote at either a Referendum or General Election.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:42 am

dsr wrote:
The other parties, especially the Greens, have other reasons to vote for them. The Greens, especially, did not campaign on the basis of whether or not to effect the EU referendum. They campaigned more on a climate change ticket. It's very likely that the majority of their members would vote to Remain even regardless of the referendum, but it wouldn't be 100%.

How interesting.
Green Party sent me this by email this morning:

Thousands of people have joined the Green Party in the last few weeks. We don’t rely on funding from big business but our grassroots movement of people giving a small amount each month.

Take action on climate breakdown and join our fight to stop Brexit and stop climate change. Become a member of the Green Party today

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:44 am

Panic over Brexit backers

Diane Abbot is now backing a 2nd ref.

Remain have had it now.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:44 am

nil_desperandum wrote:You're still conveniently missing the point (or more likely ignoring it) that there was really only one "leave" option - Brexit Party, (ok +UKip), but multiple remain options on the ballot paper.
Why have you singled out the Lib Dems?. They were only one of 5 parties with an unequivocal "remain" policy.
You can't just ignore, Greens, SNP, Change UK, and Plaid Cymru votes. (Additionally of course 66% of votes cast in NI were for Alliance or Sinn Fein who are also "remain".)
Even ignoring the NI result, (which is calculated in a different way), the remain vote was over 40%

The Brexit party being only 6 weeks old, didn't have any die hard voters that all the other parties had.

It's some achievement for them.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:45 am

TonbridgeClaret wrote:2.7 million EU citizens living in this country were entitled to vote in the European Elections. The majority would (obviously) have voted for remain. parties.

Except if you'd read the news, a large number were prevented from doing so.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:49 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:I'm sick to death of explaining this on here Spijed.

Everyone who campaigned for the leave side could only put forward ideas of what we could use the extra money for.

Unless they are part of the government who allocate funds.

I think the bigger issue is that everyone has now admitted that there won't be any extra money.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:51 am

nil_desperandum wrote:How interesting.
Green Party sent me this by email this morning:

The Green Party being remain is puzzling.

If we leave, according to most experts there will be less ferries, wagons, and planes coming to the UK.

Isn't that a top priority for the Greens?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:54 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:The Brexit party being only 6 weeks old, didn't have any die hard voters that all the other parties had.

It's some achievement for them.

Thats not true though is it?

They had the UKIP vote already, as they have lost the plot completely and gone EDL lite.

If the Brexit party is to do better than doing well in European elections, then it needs to avoid going down that route.

And as the same bloke is running it, and its the same support base, thats highly unlikely.

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:54 am

aggi wrote:I think the bigger issue is that everyone has now admitted that there won't be any extra money.

Don't make him have to defend it again as I'm sure he's got his hands full enough trying to defend and legitimise blatant racism to be bothering himself with this old news story

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue May 28, 2019 10:59 am

aggi wrote:I think the bigger issue is that everyone has now admitted that there won't be any extra money.

I don't know how anyone could safely predict it to be honest.
We have a serving government who run with austerity yet give millions to incompetent people like Grayling to waste.

How can anyone accurately predict when they don't even know who will be in Government?

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Tue May 28, 2019 11:00 am

New PM candidates should offer the guarantee a second 'leave clarification' referendum:

1. May's withdrawal agreement exit
2. Canadian style free trade exit
3. No deal WTO exit

(Thanks to summit claret for reminding me of Canadian option)

#LetThePeopleDecide

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue May 28, 2019 11:02 am

Devils_Advocate wrote:Don't make him have to defend it again as I'm sure he's got his hands full enough trying to defend and legitimise blatant racism to be bothering himself with this old news story

I'm sure any blatant racism would of been dealt with by the courts?
If not report it.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Tue May 28, 2019 11:13 am

nil_desperandum wrote:How interesting.
Green Party sent me this by email this morning:

I like how you highlighted "stop Brexit" as though climate change is a minor issue for the general public.
It's almost like it's not been in the news lately.
Getting Greta Thunberg to come over with her anti-Brexit message the other week seems to have changed the hearts and minds of brexiteers throughout the country

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue May 28, 2019 11:20 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:The Green Party being remain is puzzling.

If we leave, according to most experts there will be less ferries, wagons, and planes coming to the UK.

Isn't that a top priority for the Greens?

You understand geography do you?
Which is best for the planet: importing and exporting in and out of our nearest neighbours, or trading with countries much further away?
Now, which will use most fuel?
But in any case, the Greens are a pan-European movement dedicated to working together to address the serious issues facing us all. (Far more serious than brexit by the way).
The Greens now have 69 seats in the EU parliment - that's 40 more than Farage, and apparently he's done rather well.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue May 28, 2019 11:23 am

nil_desperandum wrote:You understand geography do you?
Which is best for the planet: importing and exporting in and out of our nearest neighbours, or trading with countries much further away?
Now, which will use most fuel?
But in any case, the Greens are a pan-European movement dedicated to working together to address the serious issues facing us all. (Far more serious than brexit by the way).
The Greens now have 69 seats in the EU parliment - that's 40 more than Farage, and apparently he's done rather well.

Same all over Europe. The press here were creaming their pants about the rise of the AfD in Germany, but completely failed to notice the equally spectacular rise of the Greens in Germany.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue May 28, 2019 11:34 am

nil_desperandum wrote:You understand geography do you?
Which is best for the planet: importing and exporting in and out of our nearest neighbours, or trading with countries much further away?
Now, which will use most fuel?
But in any case, the Greens are a pan-European movement dedicated to working together to address the serious issues facing us all. (Far more serious than brexit by the way).
The Greens now have 69 seats in the EU parliment - that's 40 more than Farage, and apparently he's done rather well.

I'm glad the Greens are doing well.

As for Geography, who knows where the stuff will come from as Trade deals haven't been set up yet. But I'm hoping Britain starts farming and making everything it can.

Lancaster assures us the checks will be so time consuming we can't cope with many ferries coming. It's got to be good for the environment.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue May 28, 2019 11:35 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:The Brexit party being only 6 weeks old, didn't have any die hard voters that all the other parties had.

It's some achievement for them.

Six months rather than six weeks.

Although, in reality, it's Farage's vehicle as UKIP was. If UKIP had maintained its vote and the Brexit party had got loads of votes that would have been impressive. In reality though a large number of votes transferred from UKIP to Brexit (and UKIP certainly helped that with the path they've been following the last year, some of their candidates were absolutely shocking this time round).

Greenmile · Post by **Greenmile** » Tue May 28, 2019 11:40 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:I'm sure any blatant racism would of been dealt with by the courts?
If not report it.

Racism isn’t illegal. I had to explain this to a load of thick “Tommy Robinson” fans on here the other day.

Greenmile · Post by **Greenmile** » Tue May 28, 2019 11:43 am

Quickenthetempo wrote:...As for Geography, who knows where the stuff will come from as Trade deals haven't been set up yet...

Do you think we may end up importing goods from somewhere that’s closer to the UK than Europe is?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue May 28, 2019 11:45 am

Lancaster and Fleetwood vote results

- Change UK – The Independent Group 976
Conservative and Unionist Party 2,905
English Democrats 165
Green Party 7,749
Labour Party 4,956
Liberal Democrats 7,507
The Brexit Party 11,679
UK European Union Party (UKEUP) 97
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 1,230
Aslam, Mohmmad 19
Robinson, Tommy 606

About what I'd expect

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:10 pm

Greenmile wrote:Do you think we may end up importing goods from somewhere that’s closer to the UK than Europe is?

Depends what you class as Europe?

If it's all the way to Baku then yes.

But I would like us to import less and less often in an ideal world.

Greenmile · Post by **Greenmile** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:15 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:Depends what you class as Europe?

If it's all the way to Baku then yes.

But I would like us to import less and less often in an ideal world.

Where then? Which part of the world is closer to the UK than Europe is?

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:20 pm

Diane Abbott at it again this morning...

"There's no contradiction in respecting the original result and having a confirmatory referendum, not least because 'Leave' might win again..."

There are coherent arguments for a second vote. Diane doesn't seem to know what they are. Telling a winning side that a re-run is OK because they might win again isn't one of them.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:25 pm

thatdberight wrote:Diane Abbott at it again this morning...

"There's no contradiction in respecting the original result and having a confirmatory referendum, not least because 'Leave' might win again..."

There are coherent arguments for a second vote. Diane doesn't seem to know what they are. Telling a winning side that a re-run is OK because they might win again isn't one of them.

Not sure what your point is. She's correct.
If "leave" is on the ballot paper, which she proposes, then a win for "leave" settles it once and for all.
If we simply revoke Article 50, or have a general election and a remain alliance wins then the "leavers" won't have a voice. (Well not in a political procedural sense anyway.)

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:28 pm

Ha, ha, ha ! The loony left are eating themselves, this has made my day !

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/stat ... 0428627973" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:35 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Not sure what your point is. She's correct.
If "leave" is on the ballot paper, which she proposes, then a win for "leave" settles it once and for all.
If we simply revoke Article 50, or have a general election and a remain alliance wins then the "leavers" won't have a voice. (Well not in a political procedural sense anyway.)

She's not correct and you've disappeared down the rabbit hole of "anything to stop Brexit" if you think she is.

"There's no contradiction in respecting the original result and having a confirmatory General Election, immediately after we've had one, not least because the same party might win again..."

No, of course they're not exactly the same. And, unlike a GE, where there are no credible arguments for a rematch, as I say, there are arguments that can be made for a second vote on the referendum. But, "Go on! You might win again." isn't one of them.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:39 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:You're still conveniently missing the point (or more likely ignoring it) that there was really only one "leave" option - Brexit Party, (ok +UKip), but multiple remain options on the ballot paper.
Why have you singled out the Lib Dems?. They were only one of 5 parties with an unequivocal "remain" policy.
You can't just ignore, Greens, SNP, Change UK, and Plaid Cymru votes. (Additionally of course 66% of votes cast in NI were for Alliance or Sinn Fein who are also "remain".)
Even ignoring the NI result, (which is calculated in a different way), the remain vote was over 40%

I'm not ignoring anything.
The pundits had it split 35% each for both the remain bloc and the leave bloc, which as I've said is an even split, just as the 1st referendum.
The only argument for a 2nd vote is if there is a significant call from the public for one. Sunday's result clearly showed that there isnt a clamour for a 2nd vote, and even if there was another vote, the result would more than likely be as close as last time.
A second vote needs justification and the only argument anyone can offer is still that they didn't like the result of the first.

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:39 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Ha, ha, ha ! The loony left are eating themselves, this has made my day !

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/stat ... 0428627973" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He should stand as a unification candidate. He manages to bring seemingly irreconcilable political opponents together in not liking him very much.

Rowls · Post by **Rowls** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:42 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Looks like Confirmatory Vote Parties, (Libs, Greens, Labour, SNP, Plaid etc) won't be far short of 50%. [This pretty much mirrors the numbers of MPs in the commons (280) who supported this in indicative votes]

Agree with you completely here. "Confirmatory votes" won't be far short of 50%.

To be more specific I'd guess it would poll at around 48%.

All Remainers have to do now is hope that 48% is enough to win a referendum when 100% of the votes are counted.

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:45 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:I'm not ignoring anything.
The pundits had it split 35% each for both the remain bloc and the leave bloc, which as I've said is an even split, just as the 1st referendum.
The only argument for a 2nd vote is if there is a significant call from the public for one. Sunday's result clearly showed that there isnt a clamour for a 2nd vote, and even if there was another vote, the result would more than likely be as close as last time.
A second vote needs justification and the only argument anyone can offer is still that they didn't like the result of the first.

40% Remain - whatever - always remain
35% Leave - just leave - don't care how - now
10% I always vote this way - possibly for a softer leave - maybe not in all circumstances
15% Really not clear - I always vote this way - possibly for a second referendum whose result is unclear - possibly for a softer leave - possibly believing they'll come round to Remain

Two caveats:
1 Turnout not high by GE/referendum standards
2 People do vote on other issues

I think, by your standard, "a significant call" for a second referendum has been met at 40%. Those people would all but all support it I'm sure.

Barry_Chuckle · Post by **Barry_Chuckle** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:46 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Not sure what your point is. She's correct.
If "leave" is on the ballot paper, which she proposes, then a win for "leave" settles it once and for all.
If we simply revoke Article 50, or have a general election and a remain alliance wins then the "leavers" won't have a voice. (Well not in a political procedural sense anyway.)

FFS, am I the only person sick to death of all the bickering, reference to quotes from so called experts,similar experts said we would be doomed if we didn't join the Euro. That never materialised so why would they be right this time?

I voted remain, the vote was done and we should honour that, all this about another vote to establish whether the public want to take either the offer on the table, or remain is a load of tosh. Those who say "but we didn't know what leave looked like" need to remember that we also don't know what Remain will look like going forward.
Europe has evolved immensely since the 70's, if we remain, do we have a vote on all aspects of EU legislation when we know what it looks like. Where does it end?

Lets unite and move on together for the future of the UK, not bicker like a primary school child in the playground at play time. In Europe, the Brexit negotiators will be watching from across the pond and rubbing their hands with glee. They will use all the bickering to encourge further division, not only with the politicians but also the public It serves to benefit them and their cause.

Unite together, deliver Brexit, and then work together with our European partners to ensure there is not only a future in the UK, but also in Europe. A messy Brexit benefits nobody, including the EU and they now it.

Rant over!

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:58 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:I'm not ignoring anything.
The pundits had it split 35% each for both the remain bloc and the leave bloc, which as I've said is an even split, just as the 1st referendum.
The only argument for a 2nd vote is if there is a significant call from the public for one. Sunday's result clearly showed that there isnt a clamour for a 2nd vote, and even if there was another vote, the result would more than likely be as close as last time.
A second vote needs justification and the only argument anyone can offer is still that they didn't like the result of the first.

Pundits have generally had it split at 40% pro-remain, 35% pro-leave.

Whether or not that is enough justifcation for a second vote is something each person will have their view on.

Personally I think Remain would win in a second referendum but the margin of victory wouldn't be decisive enough to put the matter to bed so I don't think it would be a good idea to have one.

However, whilst the window of what Brexit means is being pushed to a harder and harder definition (for instance being in a customs union is no longer viewed as leaving for some reason) despite the majority seemingly not wanting a hard brexit at the moment I'm not sure where we're going to go.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue May 28, 2019 12:58 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:I'm not ignoring anything.
The pundits had it split 35% each for both the remain bloc and the leave bloc, .

We're not talking about what the pundits said. We're talking about reality - the actual votes cast.
Just over 40% went to parties who fought on an absolute "stop brexit" ticket.
You can find charts on all the websites and in most of the papers that show this
(Just to be clear, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Change UK, all have Stop brexit" as the central core of their policy and campaigned on it).
Additionally you have 2 out of 3 MEPs in NI, (picking up approx 66% of the votes) who campaigned for remain. (You can't include them in the figures as they have a different method of calculating the results, but nonetheless it adds to the 40+%.
Labour is vehemently opposed to a "no deal" brexit, so that's at least 55% in total opposed to the official Brexit Party position. I don't see how you can argue with those statistics.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue May 28, 2019 1:00 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:We're not talking about what the pundits said. We're talking about reality - the actual votes cast.
Just over 40% went to parties who fought on an absolute "stop brexit" ticket.
You can find charts on all the websites and in most of the papers that show this
(Just to be clear, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Change UK, all have Stop brexit" as the central core of their policy and campaigned on it).
Additionally you have 2 out of 3 MEPs in NI, (picking up approx 66% of the votes) who campaigned for remain. (You can't include them in the figures as they have a different method of calculating the results, but nonetheless it adds to the 40+%.
Labour is vehemently opposed to a "no deal" brexit, so that's at least 55% in total opposed to the official Brexit Party position. I don't see how you can argue with those statistics.

Edit:
Thanks aggi for posting the actual chart that I was referring to. I've not learnt yet how to do it!

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue May 28, 2019 1:10 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:We're not talking about what the pundits said. We're talking about reality - the actual votes cast.
Just over 40% went to parties who fought on an absolute "stop brexit" ticket.
You can find charts on all the websites and in most of the papers that show this
(Just to be clear, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Change UK, all have Stop brexit" as the central core of their policy and campaigned on it).
Additionally you have 2 out of 3 MEPs in NI, (picking up approx 66% of the votes) who campaigned for remain. (You can't include them in the figures as they have a different method of calculating the results, but nonetheless it adds to the 40+%.
Labour is vehemently opposed to a "no deal" brexit, so that's at least 55% in total opposed to the official Brexit Party position. I don't see how you can argue with those statistics.

You're assuming that everyone who voted Green, for example, did so because they oppose Brexit. But it may be that people voted Green for other reasons - to save the planet, for example. You're wrong to say that the Green party's central policy was to stay in the EU - the Green party's central policy was to prevent climate change. Which way would a fanatically anti-climate change ecologist who didn't like the EU vote? Green, I would assume.

Similarly you can't count the Irish votes. Are you really trying to imply that everyone who voted for Sinn Fein did so because of their EU stance? Is it not likely that the majority did so because of more long-standing Irish political history?

I'm quite sure that the majority, and the significant majority, of the 40% you talk about are indeed pro-EU. But not all of them.

Damo · Post by **Damo** » Tue May 28, 2019 1:10 pm

aggi wrote:Pundits have generally had it split at 40% pro-remain, 35% pro-leave.

For greenmiles sake, can you clarify exactly how many pundits?

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Tue May 28, 2019 1:12 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:We're not talking about what the pundits said. We're talking about reality - the actual votes cast.
Just over 40% went to parties who fought on an absolute "stop brexit" ticket.
You can find charts on all the websites and in most of the papers that show this
(Just to be clear, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Change UK, all have Stop brexit" as the central core of their policy and campaigned on it).
Additionally you have 2 out of 3 MEPs in NI, (picking up approx 66% of the votes) who campaigned for remain. (You can't include them in the figures as they have a different method of calculating the results, but nonetheless it adds to the 40+%.
Labour is vehemently opposed to a "no deal" brexit, so that's at least 55% in total opposed to the official Brexit Party position. I don't see how you can argue with those statistics.

What seems likely from the voting (still caveats apply) is that there are only two positions that can credibly argue that they could garner a majority in a straight fight: Remain and a 'hard' Brexit. The vote (and the preamble / preshambles that the Government and opposition have engaged in) has ensured that. How a referendum commission could fairly bring the middle ground / second choice options into play in a way that was not demonstrably unfair... I wish them luck if we end up there...

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue May 28, 2019 1:14 pm

Rowls wrote:Agree with you completely here. "Confirmatory votes" won't be far short of 50%.

To be more specific I'd guess it would poll at around 48%.

All Remainers have to do now is hope that 48% is enough to win a referendum when 100% of the votes are counted.

I underestimated the results at the time of my prediction. The outcome was actually just short of 55%, since the remain parties did rather better than expected, Brexit Party slightly below the 34% prediction and Conservatives a lot worse.