C4 Conservative leader debate

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:22 am

I think the point he's making is what if raab got 34 ,and Stewart got 35, then raab would have been out.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:05 am

Imploding Turtle wrote:One more time, it wasn't that Raab got the fewest votes that saw him knocked out, it was because he received fewer than 10% of the votes. If Stewart had also received fewer than 10% then they'd have both been knocked out.

The next round of voting is when they start eliminating the person with the fewest votes. The first two rounds saw candidates eliminated if they failed to reach 5% in the first round, and 10% in the second round.

I think we all understand this, but it's not the point I was making.
The point being that in advance of the vote they couldn't have known that Raab would fall below the threshold, indeed they probably assumed that he would clear that threshold, so it made perfect sense to "lend" a few votes to Stewart if they were keen to leave Raab at the bottom of the pile and thus eliminated.
(It's all conjecture of course, but the theory is perfectly sound).

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:08 am

AndyClaret wrote:I think the point he's making is what if Raab got 34 ,and Stewart got 35, then raab would have been out.

I wonder what the rules would have been had they both got 34? (I'm guessing that they would have both been out?)

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:08 am

Pretty obvious that Johnson will be looking at the list and deciding who he doesn't want to face. And then doing stuff to make sure that happens.

I'm not sure to be honest, as I don't think any of them are a realistic challenge because they can't beat Boris and his coalition of Brexiteers and remainers.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:32 am

Gove is the biggest danger to Boris,he is strong on detail,and Boris clearly isn't,also he can validly claim to have always been a euro-sceptic,not a latecomer as Boris was.

I still think Boris would carry the membership even facing Gove,but it will be much closer.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:36 am

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:44 am

nil_desperandum wrote:I wonder what the rules would have been had they both got 34? (I'm guessing that they would have both been out?)

Maybe a play off ? That will happen today if it's a draw.

Rick_Muller · Post by **Rick_Muller** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:46 am

If it be your will wrote:Yes, but Gove says things like 'Slot home the winner in extra time' whilst doing a little jig - on live telly. Does that not completely rule him out as a Prime Minister? Because it ought to, really.

...and not forgetting that he is in fact a Thunderbird

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:50 am

You'd assume Javid will be eliminated in the lunchtime ballot,so Gove and Hunt's teams will be courting his votes for this evening,i heard that if it's a tie in the final round Boris can pick his opponent,sounds weird to me,but no doubt there is lots of arcane rules regarding these leadership contests.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:53 am

AndyClaret wrote:I think the point he's making is what if raab got 34 ,and Stewart got 35, then raab would have been out.

I think he's making that point as well. And he's wrong. In Tuesday's vote, anyone who got 32 votes stayed in the contest; anyone who got 31 or less was out. Raab needed 32 votes to stay in. It didn't matter if Stewart got 5 votes or 200 votes, Raab needed 32.

From Wednesday, it's lowest scorer is out. On Tuesday, it wasn't.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:21 am

dsr wrote:I think he's making that point as well. And he's wrong. In Tuesday's vote, anyone who got 32 votes stayed in the contest; anyone who got 31 or less was out. Raab needed 32 votes to stay in. It didn't matter if Stewart got 5 votes or 200 votes, Raab needed 32.

From Wednesday, it's lowest scorer is out. On Tuesday, it wasn't.

Still missing the point that in advance of the ballot no one knew how many votes Raab would get, and I would suggest that most expected him to pass the threshold of 33. (i.e. he was on 27 after round 1, and you might have expected him to pick up votes from McVey and Leadsom's former supporters in round 2, but as it happened he only went up by 3. He could v easily have got an additional 3 - one might have reasonably assumed).)
By encouraging some MPs to vote for Stewart, (who didn't really support him) it ensured that Raab ended up bottom of the pile and eliminated him whether he reached the 33 or not.
The fact that he didn't make the threshold has no bearing on the tactics that some of Johnson's supporters supposedly indulged in to block his progress.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:25 am

nil_desperandum wrote:Still missing the point that in advance of the ballot no one knew how many votes Raab would get, and I would suggest that most expected him to pass the threshold of 33. (i.e. he was on 27 after round 1, and you might have expected him to pick up votes from McVey and Leadsom's former supporters in round 2, but as it happened he only went up by 3. He could v easily have got an additional 3 - one might have reasonably assumed).)
By encouraging some MPs to vote for Stewart, (who didn't really support him) it ensured that Raab ended up bottom of the pile and eliminated him whether he reached the 33 or not.
The fact that he didn't make the threshold has no bearing on the tactics that some of Johnson's supporters supposedly indulged in to block his progress.

We can explain it to them, but we can't understand it for them

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:08 pm

I suspect that Boris knows that members will vote for him no matter what, because Hunt is a vanilla candidate, Gove is detested for knifing Boris then keeping May and her deal in power, and Javid is a Muslim (like it or not we are in 2019 not 2059 so it is too early in the minds of many for a Muslim PM though personally I like him).

So that leaves one consideration - ensuring open warfare doesn’t break out that give Corbyn plenty of ammunition for later. I suspect that means they will try to get Hunt through but there is a possibility Gove will concede he has little chance and use the hustings to steer Boris’s policies in his direction without too much fisticuffs.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:31 pm

No doubt in my mind now that team Johnson has more than enough votes and that they will be encouraging about 20 of them to switch to Hunt to ensure that Gove is eliminated. The last thing that Johnson wants is to have to debate with his nemesis Gove over the next few weeks .
And of course Gove is also v clever and a good debater and would do Johnson and the Tory party considerable damage.
So it's Johnson and Hunt in the final two for me.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:37 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:No doubt in my mind now that team Johnson has more than enough votes and that they will be encouraging about 20 of them to switch to Hunt to ensure that Gove is eliminated. The last thing that Johnson wants is to have to debate with his nemesis Gove over the next few weeks .
And of course Gove is also v clever and a good debater and would do Johnson and the Tory party considerable damage.
So it's Johnson and Hunt in the final two for me.

It would be time to get the popcorn out though...

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:38 pm

So, Sajid Javid out, and apparently, two spoiled ballot papers in that vote.

Wonder if whoever it was drew a cock and balls on them?

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:52 pm

ElectroClaret wrote:So, Sajid Javid out, and apparently, two spoiled ballot papers in that vote.

Wonder if whoever it was drew a cock and balls on them?

Good Crystal maze just isn't the same without him

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:54 pm

The two spoilt ballot papers will be two people writing "It doesn't matter, we are ****** whatever we do"

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:12 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:The two spoilt ballot papers will be two people writing "It doesn't matter, we are ****** whatever we do"

More than likely Rory Stewart and Boris Johnson, who on this occasion was forced to fill in the ballot sheet himself,(rather than a proxy) and cocked it up.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:21 pm

I want it to be Gove and Johnson.

They got us into this mess, so they can get us out.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:26 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I want it to be Gove and Johnson.

They got us into this mess, so they can get us out.

Rubbish. Politicians and metropolitan elite ignoring the legitimate concerns of ordinary people for ages are to blame. For example calling people racist for being concerned about too much immigration. The people got a chance to protest and boy did they.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:28 pm

summitclaret wrote:Rubbish. Politicians and metropolitan elite ignoring the legitimate concerns of ordinary people for ages are to blame. For example calling people racist for being concerned about too much immigration. The people got a chance to protest and boy did they.

******* ace! The reason we're in this mess isn't because of the nihilism of Brexiteers, it's the people who argue against their nihilism who's to blame.

Steve-Harpers-perm · Post by **Steve-Harpers-perm** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:31 pm

It is being reported Johnson’s team are worried about him facing off against Gove so they are considering ‘lending’ votes to Hunt so he will be the one he faces in the final two.

They really are so principled!

Steve-Harpers-perm · Post by **Steve-Harpers-perm** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:33 pm

summitclaret wrote:Rubbish. Politicians and metropolitan elite ignoring the legitimate concerns of ordinary people for ages are to blame. For example calling people racist for being concerned about too much immigration. The people got a chance to protest and boy did they.

You voted leave purely on immigration?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:38 pm

summitclaret wrote:Rubbish. Politicians and metropolitan elite ignoring the legitimate concerns of ordinary people for ages are to blame. For example calling people racist for being concerned about too much immigration. The people got a chance to protest and boy did they.

HOUSE!

Liking the "concerns about immigration" line. It would fool a not very regular visitor to this board.

SalisburyClaret · Post by **SalisburyClaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:44 pm

What happens if Weasel and the NHS Wrecker get the same number of votes in the next round?

Steve-Harpers-perm · Post by **Steve-Harpers-perm** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:49 pm

SalisburyClaret wrote:What happens if Weasel and the NHS Wrecker get the same number of votes in the next round?

Tiebreak in which the winner will be the first one to snort ten lines of coke off Boris’s moobs.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:00 pm

Steve-Harpers-perm wrote:Tiebreak in which the winner will be the first one to snort ten lines of coke off Boris’s moobs.

What if thats a tie?

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:02 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:What if thats a tie?

Pistols at dawn?

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:03 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:What if thats a tie?

They have a couple of pigs heads on ice, ready for a race.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:16 pm

Steve-Harpers-perm wrote:You voted leave purely on immigration?

Certainly not. I was giving an observation. I voted leave because i disagree with the way the EEC was overtaken by the desire for a single entity (controlled by france and germany). I have been wanting out long before immigration was ever an EU issue.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:19 pm

summitclaret wrote:Certainly not. I was giving an observation. I voted leave because i disagree with the way the EEC was overtaken by the desire for a single entity (controlled by france and germany). I have been wanting out long before immigration was ever an EU issue.

Three. Years. Of. This.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:24 pm

summitclaret wrote:Rubbish. Politicians and metropolitan elite ignoring the legitimate concerns of ordinary people for ages are to blame. For example calling people racist for being concerned about too much immigration. The people got a chance to protest and boy did they.

The irony and the obvious flaw in what you've written is that you blame politicians and your "Metropolitan elite" for ignoring legitimate concerns of ordinary people, and yet it is this group of people who
a) Failed many in this country by their austerity policies and failures to address issues such as poverty, welfare cuts etc. and yet you
b) Want to hand over more power to this metropolitan elite, (the likes of Farage Johnson, Redwood etc) whose sole purpose is to get us out of the EU so that they can avoid tax, line their own pockets, privatise the NHS, and reduce the size of the welfare state.

If it was mainly a misguided protest vote then I get that, but this should have been the prompt for responsible MPs to address these concerns rather than pursuing a policy that will make everyone - except the rich, poorer, cost jobs, push up prices and severely impact on the future prospects of our younger generation.
Quite rightly a majority of MPs won't allow a no deal brexit, and Hammond has pretty much explained why today. That 26 billion war chest could be spent on revitalising some of the northern towns, but instead the elite ERG and brexiteers extremists championed by Farage would rather see it needlessly wasted in tryng to cope with the no deal fall-out.
It will be really interesting to see who Johnson will blame for poverty, immigration etc when the EU can no longer be scapegoated. My real fear, based on Johnson's history, is that the next set of scapegoats will be immigrants
The idea that anyone would blame the UK's problems on a "metropolitan elite" and then applaud the likes of Johnson, Gove and Farage is simply laughable - but I'm afraid, not in a good way.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:29 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:It will be really interesting to see who Johnson will blame for poverty, immigration etc when the EU can no longer be scapegoated. My real fear, based on Johnson's history, is that the next set of scapegoats will be immigrants

It will still be the EU for many years to come.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:39 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Three. Years. Of. This.

You've had the same from the SNP for a lot longer than 3 years. You ought to be used to it by now.

CombatClaret · Post by **CombatClaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:51 pm

aggi wrote:It will still be the EU for many years to come.

I thought now the EU was being dealt with, London or the 'metropolitan bubble' was the new enemy. We reduce in scale each time, sack off Scotland and NI until the root of all your live's problems will be because of that family down the road.

SonofPog · Post by **SonofPog** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:54 pm

CombatClaret wrote:I thought now the EU was being dealt with, London or the 'metropolitan bubble' was the new enemy. We reduce in scale each time, sack off Scotland and NI until the root of all your live's problems will be because of that family down the road.

Add in the "remoaners that never believed in Brexit and will do anything to sabotage it"

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:58 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:The irony and the obvious flaw in what you've written is that you blame politicians and your "Metropolitan elite" for ignoring legitimate concerns of ordinary people, and yet it is this group of people who
a) Failed many in this country by their austerity policies and failures to address issues such as poverty, welfare cuts etc. and yet you
b) Want to hand over more power to this metropolitan elite, (the likes of Farage Johnson, Redwood etc) whose sole purpose is to get us out of the EU so that they can avoid tax, line their own pockets, privatise the NHS, and reduce the size of the welfare state.

If it was mainly a misguided protest vote then I get that, but this should have been the prompt for responsible MPs to address these concerns rather than pursuing a policy that will make everyone - except the rich, poorer, cost jobs, push up prices and severely impact on the future prospects of our younger generation.
Quite rightly a majority of MPs won't allow a no deal brexit, and Hammond has pretty much explained why today. That 26 billion war chest could be spent on revitalising some of the northern towns, but instead the elite ERG and brexiteers extremists championed by Farage would rather see it needlessly wasted in tryng to cope with the no deal fall-out.
It will be really interesting to see who Johnson will blame for poverty, immigration etc when the EU can no longer be scapegoated. My real fear, based on Johnson's history, is that the next set of scapegoats will be immigrants
The idea that anyone would blame the UK's problems on a "metropolitan elite" and then applaud the likes of Johnson, Gove and Farage is simply laughable - but I'm afraid, not in a good way.

The metropolitan elite i meant is liberal/labour middle class and thinks it is better than the rest.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:59 pm

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:04 pm

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:05 pm

summitclaret wrote:The metropolitan elite i meant is liberal/labour middle class and thinks it is better than the rest.

You're offended by other people thinking they're better than you?
I thought it was people like me who were offended by the slightest of things, like racism and hatred and such.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:09 pm

summitclaret wrote:The metropolitan elite i meant is liberal/labour middle class and thinks it is better than the rest.

Do you have to live in a city to count as part of the "metropolitan elite"?

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:10 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Do you have to live in a city to count as part of the "metropolitan elite"?

You can, but then they just criticise you for not knowing what it's like to live in a built up multicultural area. Or something. They have bullshit for every scenario.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:45 pm

If it be your will wrote:I don't know if you honestly believe that that 26 billion will be spent revitalising northern towns or not. Seems odd considering that hasn't happened in the last 40 odd years of membership!
.

Of course it won't, and that's the basis of my point. The UK has prospered during its time in the EU, but the prosperity of the country has not been distributed evenly, nor the tax burden shared fairly. (etc. etc.)
Billions that could have been invested in education, the NHS, and the more deprived areas has gone elsewhere, and places like North East Lancs have effectively had to rely on hand outs from the EU to fund capital projects rather than them be funded directly from Westminster.
If Hammond has 26 billion available, why are schools, hospitals and other social services so deprived of funds?. Austerity has been idealogically driven,and has required the poorest in society to pay for the excesses of the bankers, but the EU and immigration have been used as a smokescreen to deflect attention away from this by ERG / Farage types.
Crashing the economy is no way to address the problems of working class communities in the north - unless of course you believe that there will be a mass protest, leading to revolution and the overthrow of the capitalist system, but that isn't going to happen.
Hammond has money. He's admitted it. Why not put it where its needed, and then have the intelligent debate about immigration and the EU that has been sadly lacking for the past 25 years or more.
Anyway, I'm sure that Johnson will quickly resolve all this, by investing massively in public services, schools hospitals etc., revitalising the north and making us a fairer society.
All at the same time - of course - as making big tax cuts for the wealthiest.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:46 pm

Take the test!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... abour-quiz" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I scored 130.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:55 pm

Jeez, having had a manual job, living in the sticks and being a cyclist meant I got a lot less than that!

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:07 pm

Michael Gove knocked out.
Boris and Hunt head to head.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:08 pm

Johnson vs Hunt, Gove misses out by 2 votes !, either there were no tactical voting, or Boris' team knew the exact numbers to lend.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:15 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Jeez, having had a manual job, living in the sticks and being a cyclist meant I got a lot less than that!

Ah, but you get a hundred just for being a Guardian reader.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:26 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Johnson vs Hunt, Gove misses out by 2 votes !, either there were no tactical voting, or Boris' team knew the exact numbers to lend.

It seems Boris has "lent" some votes to Hunt, no way did he gain 18 votes and Boris only 3 !