Democracy and Brexit

[martin_p]

What were the outcomes prior to the last 61 times?

Polls are what they are, sometimes they're right, sometimes they aren't as shown by Remain arrogantly thinking the polls suggesting they'd win were accurate.
You clearly think they're accurate, I take them with the pinch of salt they should be taken with.

If there is an official poll held by the government asking if we need the confirmatory referendum then great, let's have one.

They’ve got it wrong 61 times in a row?

[Imploding Turtle]

This is why I often don’t bother answering your questions. I give you an answer, it’s not one you like, so you go off on one. It’s a verifiable fact that the government are not legally bound to enact the results of the referendum whether you like it or not. Whether it’s happened before or not is immaterial.

You know why he's not addressing your point, don't you? Because the only thing he can respond with is that David Cameron said in the campaign that it would be enacted, and therefore must be enacted.

BUT, if he does that then he admits that what is said in the campaign matters, and the No Deal brextremists absolutely cannot admit that how a campaign was won matters to the result.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

They’ve got it wrong 61 times in a row?

I never said that, I asked for the results prior to those 61 times.
If all they've done is have 61 checks then fine, if they've had 120 and the previous 59 agreed with the referendum result then its just someone chopping the facts to suit their agenda.

That's why I asked what the previous results were...

[martin_p]

I never said that, I asked for the results prior to those 61 times.
If all they've done is have 61 checks then fine, if they've had 120 and the previous 59 agreed with the referendum result then its just someone chopping the facts to suit their agenda.

That's why I asked what the previous results were...

But if the previous 59 showed people agreed then all it’d show is that people have changed their minds.

[Imploding Turtle]

What were the outcomes prior to the last 61 times?

Polls are what they are, sometimes they're right, sometimes they aren't as shown by Remain arrogantly thinking the polls suggesting they'd win were accurate.
You clearly think they're accurate, I take them with the pinch of salt they should be taken with.

This is desperation now. You're in clear denial.

One poll can be wrong, absolutely, for a variety of reasons. 2 or 3 consecutive polls can be wrong, although if they show the same results with a different sample, then they're less likely to be "wrong". But 60 polls out of 61, all showing the same result? You are out of your mind if you think that those are "wrong" unless you can show a fundamental error in how every single poll was conducted. If i believed in sampling as a form of democracy then that would be far in excess of what i'd need to argue that we can already throw out the EU referendum results given how astronomical the odds would be for 60 out of 61 consecutive polls all being wrong.

If the polling methodology was fundamentally flawed then the results would be all over the place. Go ahead and flip a coin. See how long it takes you to get 60 out of 61 consecutive attempts to be all the same side.
And yes, this same polling company also used to show that we consistently thought that is was the right decision. Not quite so convincingly, but enough to determine that that's what we actually used to think.

********. Where was the official poll held by the government asking if we need an EU referendum in the first place?

[Imploding Turtle]

But if the previous 59 showed people agreed then all it’d show is that people have changed their minds.

It clearly shows a change of mind, which is why we need a referendum to make sure that we haven't.

[dsr]

Where was the official poll held by the government asking if we need an EU referendum in the first place?

Do they need one? If it's a manifesto pledge to have a referendum and that party wins, isn't it fair to have a referendum? Or are manifestos as optional as referendums?

Where was the official poll by the government asking if the Scots needed an independence referendum?

[Imploding Turtle]

Do they need one? If it's a manifesto pledge to have a referendum and that party wins, isn't it fair to have a referendum? Or are manifestos as optional as referendums?

Where was the official poll by the government asking if the Scots needed an independence referendum?

Of course. I've no problem with the promise of a campaign being enacted if that campaign wins. You're the ones who have a problem with it, because you people have repeatedly said "it wasn't on the ballot" any time I tried to point out to you that the Leave campaign won on the basis that there would be a soft brexit.

I'm not the one saying there needs to be an official government poll asking people if we want a referendum. That's Godisadeejay who's arguing that. But he seems to have forgotten that there was no official government poll asking if we should have the first one.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Of course. I've no problem with the promise of a campaign being enacted if that campaign wins. You're the ones who have a problem with it, because you people have repeatedly said "it wasn't on the ballot" any time I tried to point out to you that the Leave campaign won on the basis that there would be a soft brexit.

I'm not the one saying there needs to be an official government poll asking people if we want a referendum. That's Godisadeejay who's arguing that. But he seems to have forgotten that there was no official government poll asking if we should have the first one.

You want another referendum because you're of the belief that the public has changed its mind and you think the result was wrong in the first place.

If we are to have another referendum to confirm the outcome of the first one shouldn't we at least check that the public want one?

As for how we leave, it was asked if we wanted to stay or leave.

There couldn't be any guarantees how because we hadn't started the negotiations, plus telling the EU we wanted a soft brexit prior to negotiations would just be stupid.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

But if the previous 59 showed people agreed then all it’d show is that people have changed their minds.

The next 61 could show that people want to leave again.

[Imploding Turtle]

The next 61 could show that people want to leave again.

So you admit that the polling shows that we no longer want to leave.

[Imploding Turtle]

You want another referendum because you're of the belief that the public has changed its mind and you think the result was wrong in the first place.

If we are to have another referendum to confirm the outcome of the first one shouldn't we at least check that the public want one?

As for how we leave, it was asked if we wanted to stay or leave.

There couldn't be any guarantees how because we hadn't started the negotiations, plus telling the EU we wanted a soft brexit prior to negotiations would just be stupid.

I think the original result was the wrong decision. Yes. But that's not why i'm saying we should have a second referendum. I'm saying we should have a second referendum because there is clear evidence that the public thinks it made the wrong decision, and before we do something we can't walk back we should make sure that the public still wants it to happen.

[dsr]

I think the original result was the wrong decision. Yes. But that's not why i'm saying we should have a second referendum. I'm saying we should have a second referendum because there is clear evidence that the public thinks it made the wrong decision, and before we do something we can't walk back we should make sure that the public still wants it to happen.

The latest poll I can find on which way people would vote in a referendum (May this year) showed 42% leave, 44% remain, on a 93% turnout. That's not clear evidence.

Why did we never get a second vote on whether we even wanted to join the EU? Oh, I know - because we didn't even get a first vote.

[Imploding Turtle]

The latest poll I can find on which way people would vote in a referendum (May this year) showed 42% leave, 44% remain, on a 93% turnout. That's not clear evidence.

Why did we never get a second vote on whether we even wanted to join the EU? Oh, I know - because we didn't even get a first vote.

You think one poll (which you don't even link) is a reliable enough sample size to reach the conclusion that it's not clear evidence, but the hundred or so polls i displayed above isn't enough evidence?

Here!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... um_polling" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's been 18 months since a YouGov poll last found that more people thought it was the right thing decision than the wrong decision. 18 ******* months, and 62 polls ago. Are they ALL outliers? Are they ALL inaccurate?

[Imploding Turtle]

Here it is again as a plot graph. It shows a clear trend towards the public thinking it was a wrong decision, from right after the referendum where the polling consistently showed that the public felt it was the right decision.

And do you see those little lines? That's the margin of error, means the result plotted has a 95% chance of being accurate for the wider population to within that margin, which is +/-3.0%

So for a poll to be inaccurate it would have to be a part of the 5% (1 in 20. Perfectly possibly). But for the last 10 polls to be all wrong then you have to multiply 5% by itself 10 times. And the probability of that? 0.000000000009765625%

[GodIsADeeJay81]

So you admit that the polling shows that we no longer want to leave.

Dunno, I haven't studied any, because unlike you it doesn't really make much difference to me what the polls say and if we leave or stay in the EU.
It isn't central to my life.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

I think the original result was the wrong decision. Yes. But that's not why i'm saying we should have a second referendum. I'm saying we should have a second referendum because there is clear evidence that the public thinks it made the wrong decision, and before we do something we can't walk back we should make sure that the public still wants it to happen.

Get your online petition going then for another referendum if you're that convinced the public want one.

[dsr]

You think one poll (which you don't even link) is a reliable enough sample size to reach the conclusion that it's not clear evidence, but the hundred or so polls i displayed above isn't enough evidence?

Obviously your 61 polls are no use for assessing whether my 1 is accurate, because they're asking different questions, so you wouldn't expect to get the same answer.

Your 61 polls are asking whether we made the right decision 3 years ago. My poll was asking should we leave the EU now. Different questions.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... ults_w.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Imploding Turtle]

Obviously your 61 polls are no use for assessing whether my 1 is accurate, because they're asking different questions, so you wouldn't expect to get the same answer.

Your 61 polls are asking whether we made the right decision 3 years ago. My poll was asking should we leave the EU now. Different questions.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... ults_w.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If it showed 44-42 result repeatedly between now and October 31st would you accept that a second referendum is justified?

[AndyClaret]

If it showed 44-42 result repeatedly between now and October 31st would you accept that a second referendum is justified?

A 2 point lead (within the margin of error) is not clear evidence that people have changed their minds. Come back when it's consistently 60/40.

[Greenmile]

Sidney - Show me a poll which suggests the people have changed their minds

IT - ok. Here are 61 of them

Sidney - You can't believe what polls say. We've had enough of experts. I don't care what the polls say.

Also Sidney - Why do remainers keep moving the goalposts?

[randomclaret2]

Should we hold a General Election if the governing party is behind in opinion polls?

[Imploding Turtle]

A 2 point lead (within the margin of error) is not clear evidence that people have changed their minds. Come back when it's consistently 60/40.

60/40 no

But i can show that Remain is consistently beating Leave in opinion polls by a larger margin than Leave when they won the EU referendum

Here are all the YouGov polls going back to since the last time they polled the question and Remain didn't win.



The last one, 44-44, was June 2018. The 44-42 result at the top is the most recent one dsr referred to.

Edit: "don't know" excluded also excludes the salty pricks who said "I would not vote".

[randomclaret2]

Was their sample size 34 million ?

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Sidney - Show me a poll which suggests the people have changed their minds

IT - ok. Here are 61 of them

Sidney - You can't believe what polls say. We've had enough of experts. I don't care what the polls say.

Also Sidney - Why do remainers keep moving the goalposts?

I asked for a government poll....

Independent ones are useful but can also be skewed to suit agendas or ignored to suit agendas.

I'd support another referendum if a government poll suggested we should have one

[Greenmile]

I asked for a government poll....

Independent ones are useful but can also be skewed to suit agendas or ignored to suit agendas.

I'd support another referendum if a government poll suggested we should have one

A(n advisory) referendum is a govt poll. So you’d only support a referendum if we had a referendum to see if we want a referendum. Seems logical.

[2 Bee Holed]

The latest poll I can find on which way people would vote in a referendum (May this year) showed 42% leave, 44% remain, on a 93% turnout. That's not clear evidence.

Why did we never get a second vote on whether we even wanted to join the EU? Oh, I know - because we didn't even get a first vote.

Crikey which poll was this? 93% turnout....that is huge! There was only a 72.2% turnout in the original 2016 referendum.

Can we have a link to this poll?

[Greenmile]

Crikey which poll was this? 93% turnout....that is huge! There was only a 72.2% turnout in the original 2016 referendum.

Can we have a link to this poll?

I suspect dsr means there were only 7% “don’t know”s. Defining it as “turnout” is a little misleading - most polls, by definition have a 100% “turnout”of the folk polled - but this is one of the rare occasions when I’m willing to give dsr the benefit of the doubt for that.

[RingoMcCartney]

The only poll that matters, is the one that the professional sore losers can't accept.

[2 Bee Holed]

Why did we never get a second vote on whether we even wanted to join the EU? Oh, I know - because we didn't even get a first vote.

Partly correct.

Heath took us into the EEC on 1st Jan 1973 with no referendum.

Wilson held a referendum in June 1975 about whether we should stay in the Common Market or not.

67% yes remain in it, 33% No leave it. Turnout 65%.

So I would say we did get a vote about whether we should stay in or not.
We also had a second one in 2016.
This showed people had changed their minds.

[Imploding Turtle]

I suspect dsr means there were only 7% “don’t know”s. Defining it as “turnout” is a little misleading - most polls, by definition have a 100% “turnout”of the folk polled - but this is one of the rare occasions when I’m willing to give dsr the benefit of the doubt for that.

It's not even mathematically correct. 44 and 42 add up to 86. So there were 14% who didn't provide an answer of either Remain or Leave. Not 7%

[2 Bee Holed]

I suspect dsr means there were only 7% “don’t know”s. Defining it as “turnout” is a little misleading - most polls, by definition have a 100% “turnout”of the folk polled - but this is one of the rare occasions when I’m willing to give dsr the benefit of the doubt for that.

I get 44 + 42 = 86...isn't that 14% Don't knows?

[Imploding Turtle]

I get 44 + 42 = 86...isn't that 14% Don't knows?

Here's the actual poll.

The 14% is made up of "Don't know" and "I would not vote"

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... pdf#page=2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Greenmile]

I get 44 + 42 = 86...isn't that 14% Don't knows?

Good point. Ignore me. I’m terrible at maths. I’ve no idea what “turnout” could mean in that context then.

[2 Bee Holed]

I asked for a government poll....

Independent ones are useful but can also be skewed to suit agendas or ignored to suit agendas.

I'd support another referendum if a government poll suggested we should have one

I am not aware the UK government has a polling organisation attached to it.
So how do you get a Government Poll?

[Imploding Turtle]

I am not aware the UK government has a polling organisation attached to it.
So how do you get a Government Poll?

You could write legislation commissioning a poll of the electorate. We'd have to think of a name for it though.

[CombatClaret]

There is and has never been a mandate or any legitimacy for a No Deal Brexit.
If you gather every tweet, speech, article, quote etc of Boris Johnson from time he came out for Brexit up to the vote itself in 2016 he mentioned, articulated or made the case for no deal precisely zero times.
So he's claiming a mandate for a Brexit which was never proposed. It's a rewriting of History.

[Imploding Turtle]

There is and has never been a mandate or any legitimacy for a No Deal Brexit.
If you gather every tweet, speech, article, quote etc of Boris Johnson from time he came out for Brexit up to the vote itself in 2016 he mentioned, articulated or made the case for no deal precisely zero times.
So he's claiming a mandate for a Brexit which was never proposed. It's a rewriting of History.

It's pretty hilarious when you think about it. Leave are trying to steal a referendum after they won it.

[2 Bee Holed]

Here's the actual poll.

The 14% is made up of "Don't know" and "I would not vote"

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... pdf#page=2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You've got me there IT.
That link gives me French German, etc etc. opinions, not UK citizens.
Or am I reading it wrong?....what page is this 42% and 44% on?

[Imploding Turtle]

You've got me there IT.
That link gives me French German, etc etc. opinions, not UK citizens.
Or am I reading it wrong?....what page is this 42% and 44% on?

Page 2

Each column is referring to that country. YouGov typically show the current polling results, and the last polling results for that same question in their polls. That's why you see each country has 2 columns. One showing February results, and one showing May results. The first 2 columns are ours.

[2 Bee Holed]

Page 2

Each column is referring to that country. YouGov typically show the current polling results, and the last polling results for that same question in their polls. That's why you see each country has 2 columns. One showing February results, and one showing May results. The first 2 columns are ours.

Thank you.

This is interesting. Firstly it gives GB not UK!
Secondly nobody has mentioned the question at the bottom viz
"Overall do you approve or disapprove of your County's membership of the EU?"
Result 43% for each.
Even more interestingly the Strongly disapprove figure of 25% beats the Strongly approve figure of 21%.

I voted Leave by the way.
To listen to the Remain side you would think there has been a big change in the country's opinion on this question.
I cannot see the evidence for this.
As a country we just have to accept that we are completely split on this question.

[Imploding Turtle]

Thank you.

This is interesting. Firstly it gives GB not UK!
Secondly nobody has mentioned the question at the bottom viz
"Overall do you approve or disapprove of your County's membership of the EU?"
Result 43% for each.
Even more interestingly the Strongly disapprove figure of 25% beats the Strongly approve figure of 21%.

I voted Leave by the way.
To listen to the Remain side you would think there has been a big change in the country's opinion on this question.
I cannot see the evidence for this.
As a country we just have to accept that we are completely split on this question.

But there has been a big change. I've demonstrated it already. We used to consistently tell YouGov that we thought it was the right decision, now we're consistently telling YouGov that it's the wrong decision.


Look

[2 Bee Holed]

You could write legislation commissioning a poll of the electorate. We'd have to think of a name for it though.

Well we can't call it a 2nd Referendum.....because a lot of people are opposed to that, even Remainers.

I have an idea, let's call it a People's Vote.

Actually if it breaks the deadlock I am all for a People's Vote.
There you go Boris, get Parliament to back you and promise to hold a People's Vote afterwards.

Then organise the following question on the ballot paper.
1/. Do you support leaving the EU on the 31/10/19 at 23.59 CET?
or
2/. Do you support leaving the EU on the 31/10/19 at 23.58hrs CET?

[Imploding Turtle]

Well we can't call it a 2nd Referendum.....because a lot of people are opposed to that, even Remainers.

I have an idea, let's call it a People's Vote.

Actually if it breaks the deadlock I am all for a People's Vote.
There you go Boris, get Parliament to back you and promise to hold a People's Vote afterwards.

Then organise the following question on the ballot paper.
1/. Do you support leaving the EU on the 31/10/19 at 23.59 CET?
or
2/. Do you support leaving the EU on the 31/10/19 at 23.58hrs CET?

It's not really true that the public is opposed to a second referendum. Quite regularly this idea has been polled and more often than a second referendum receives a plurality of support.
Out of the last 10 times YouGov polled this issue support for a second referendum "won" 8 times. Sometimes by a lot.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... referendum" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Worth pointing out also that last year, more of YouGov's polls showed that we didn't want a second referendum. So that's another way we appear to have changed our mind.

[2 Bee Holed]

But there has been a big change. I've demonstrated it already. We used to consistently tell YouGov that we thought it was the right decision, now we're consistently telling YouGov that it's the wrong decision.

IT you clearly follow this more clearly than I do. Would you call that change statistically significant?

Why does your spreadsheet contain mainly YouGov poll results?

There are many other polling organisations, why are they not there?
Where are Com Res, ICM, IPSOS(Mori) and others results?

Now if you table showed all these organisation's results, a poll of polls as it where, then your argument would be stronger.
At least then the sample size would be 5 or 6 times the current 2,200 you are quoting to represent a population of 65 million people.
(Voting Population off approx. 47 million).

Can you just not agree the country is split down the middle?

[2 Bee Holed]

Out of the last 10 times YouGov polled this issue support for a second referendum "won" 8 times.

Do you work for YouGov?

[Imploding Turtle]

IT you clearly follow this more clearly than I do. Would you call that change statistically significant?

Why does your spreadsheet contain mainly YouGov poll results?

There are many other polling organisations, why are they not there?
Where are Com Res, ICM, IPSOS(Mori) and others results?

Now if you table showed all these organisation's results, a poll of polls as it where, then your argument would be stronger.
At least then the sample size would be 5 or 6 times the current 2,200 you are quoting to represent a population of 65 million people.
(Voting Population off approx. 47 million).

Can you just not agree the country is split down the middle?

I'm not a data scientist so i'm not going to declare something as statistically significant without knowing how to calculate it, but when polls consistently show the same thing, over and over again, then denials of how accurate the polls are (without being able to point to any actual cause for why they may be inaccurate) become less and less credible.

[Imploding Turtle]

Do you work for YouGov?

Wanna commission a poll? I'm selling them. Hit me up! Any result you want for £200.

[Imploding Turtle]

The only reason i'm citing YouGov polls is because they're the major polling company that has polled this stuff the most.
I try not to use different polling companies, with different methodologies and questioning, to spot a trend if i don't have to.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

I know what I’m doing, correct
Proving yourself to be a whinging little undemocratic hypocrite

The fact of the matter is, the question was cited as leave or remain the European Union. All of this hard Brexit, soft Brexit was quickly drummed up by the losing side as a way to thwart the incorrect result in their opinion. The people voted and leave won so we must leave or it’s going against the wishes of the majority of people. You understand that perfectly well there is no argument against it.

I agree, in fact not only do I think Britain should leave but it should leave now with no deal, it should keep the 39 billion and never let another European into the country, not even on holiday. Britain should no longer do any deals with the EU, we shouldn't be allowed to sell our stuff there and they shouldn't be allowed to sell their stuff here either. Let's fill in the channel tunnel and throw anyone foreign in the sea.
Make Britain Great Again!