Brecon by-election

[Imploding Turtle]

Labour might have lost their deposit. Hard to imagine Labour voters being tired of Labour and choosing the Tories over the Lib Dems

If Conservatives lose this seat then their working majority is cut in half.

[Imploding Turtle]

Lib Dems won. The Tories now have a working majority of one.

[Imploding Turtle]

Also, i believe this is the quickest a new Prime Minister has ever lost a by-election. If it isn't it's gotta be up there.

Definitely "uniting" the country.

[AndyClaret]

Lib Dems won. The Tories now have a working majority of one.

Not true, Charlie Elphick may have had the whip withdrawn but he won't vote against the Government.

[Somethingfishy]

Interestingly the leave partys edged it. The split vote costing the Tories i think.

[CardyTheClaret]

All this does is show how easily a Brexit Party & Tory alliance would destroy Labour and get the Tories a large majority if there was a GE.

[Somethingfishy]

All this does is show how easily a Brexit Party & Tory alliance would destroy Labour and get the Tories a large majority if there was a GE.

Farage has more or less ruled that out. He has some thinking to do if he wants the Brexit he desires. Plaid and the Greens pulled out..maybe he should have too and let the Tories win.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Fingers in ears for the Labour Leadership as well today.

[mdd2]

Also, i believe this is the quickest a new Prime Minister has ever lost a by-election. If it isn't it's gotta be up there.

Definitely "uniting" the country.

Well Darling Harold lost one pretty soon after winning in 1964 but it was later. This was when we had a Foreign Secretary who could not be answerable to Parliament because Patrick Gordon-Walker had lost his seat in Smethwick and for 4 months was FS but not an MP-he then lost a safe Labour seat a few months after October 64 as Harold fixed it for a Labour MP to stand down from a safe Labour seat somewhere in the London area- and Labour lost so Harold had to find a new FS

[RingoMcCartney]

2016 referendum- leave wins.




Lib antidemocrats say - " We demand a 2nd referendum even before the first is implemented!"




2019 brecon by election - Lib antidemocrats win.




Brexiteers - "We'd like another by election even before this one is implemented. That's how democracy works now, isn't it!?"

[Devils_Advocate]

Bring out your dead

[RingoMcCartney]

Bring out your dead

It's "yer"

[RingoMcCartney]

Bring out your dead

Holding a mirror to for remoaners and their unthinking, anti democratic, agenda, clearly makes them uncomfortable.

[Dy1geo]

Plaid and Greens never fielded a candidate leaving Lib Dem’s as the only true pro Remain party.

It would be interesting if say the Tories stepped aside in Nick Clegg’s old seat in Sheffield leaving contest to Labour, Lib Dem’s and Brexit Party

[Devils_Advocate]

Holding a mirror to for remoaners and their unthinking, anti democratic, agenda, clearly makes them uncomfortable.

You're on it early today Ringo, I sense a fun Friday ahead of us

[RingoMcCartney]

Sir Nick Clegg claimed £113,000 in expenses for public duties in same year he joined Facebook

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ar-joined/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Snout, well and truly in the trough for Old Nick "tuitions fees" Clegg

[nil_desperandum]

All this does is show how easily a Brexit Party & Tory alliance would destroy Labour and get the Tories a large majority if there was a GE.

It doesn't demonstrate that at all because it's impossible to estimate to what extent the Conservatives would divide and their support would fragment if such an alliance were to be proposed.
There might be some unity within local parties over brexit, though even there a third of the party voted against Johnson, but Tory MPs and potential voters are much more divided over a "no deal" brexit. Support for the Lib Dems has been growing, and - without doubt - in most parts of the country, a Tory / Brexit Party Alliance would push many more "one nation" / remain leaning Conservatives and undecided voters in their direction.

[RingoMcCartney]

You're on it early today Ringo, I sense a fun Friday ahead of us

Yep! Absolutely no comeback when you use the democracy denying agenda on the very people spouting it!

BRING OUT YER DESPERATE!

[Spijed]

It doesn't demonstrate that at all because it's impossible to estimate to what extent the Conservatives would divide and their support would fragment if such an alliance were to be proposed.
There might be some unity within local parties over brexit, though even there a third of the party voted against Johnson, but Tory MPs and potential voters are much more divided over a "no deal" brexit. Support for the Lib Dems has been growing, and - without doubt - in most parts of the country, a Tory / Brexit Party Alliance would push many more "one nation" / remain leaning Conservatives and undecided voters in their direction.

Exactly.

There is plenty of info here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Spijed]

Yep! Absolutely no comeback when you use the democracy denying agenda on the very people spouting it!

So are you saying that everyone should have supported the Brexit party yesterday if they believed in democracy, even Lib-Dem voters?

[RingoMcCartney]

So are you saying that everyone should have supported the Brexit party yesterday if they believed in democracy, even Lib-Dem voters?

No.

I'm saying everyone should respect the result of the by election and the 2016 Peoples Vote and see it implemented.


It's called democracy. Refuse to accept the implementation of either. You ain't no democrat.

[Erasmus]

Ringo, you're wrong, asking for more referendums on an issue as implementation proceeds is more democratic than insisting on there being one only. It's the way that referendum democracy works.

[tiger76]

Some positives for everyone apart from Labour and UKIP.

Lib Dems-a gain in any by-election is not to be sniffed at,but their majority was much less than i expected,i wonder what carrot they'll throw to the Greens and Plaid Cymru for standing aside to give them a clear run.

A nice boost for Jo Swinson,and with a probable gain in Sheffield Hallam just before the party conference season,you can see why the Lib Dems are cock-a-hoop.

Conservatives-they lost the seat as predicted,but they performed well enough to suggest that in better circumstances-i.e their sitting MP not being embroiled in an expenses scandal,and then re-standing,that in a straight fight with Labour or the Lib Dems many seats can be held.

You'd have thought they'd learn from Labour's handling of Peterborough,Fiona Onasanya was never going to be allowed to re-stand,certianly not with Labour's backing,crazy to stick 2 fingers up to a recall petition,this gave the Lib Dems an open goal.

Brexit Party-a reasonable 3rd over 10% in vote share,they where always going to be squeezed with a brexit-supporting Conservative incumbent.

Labour-If the message doesn't get through to Labour HQ this time.maybe it will when Sheffield Hallam goes yellow after the recess,although given their previous stupidity i doubt it,

Either the leadership has to have a clearer brexit strategy,or the leadership has to change,dealing with anti-semitism issues might help their cause as well,if none of the above happen they'll see many seats going in the Lib Dems column

MRLP-They allows add colour to UK by-elections,ever since the days of "Screaming Lord Sutch" and they created another Bootle moment by beating UKIP,and we all know what happened to the Social Democrats in the aftermath of that 1990 by-election.

UKIP-What exactly is their purpose now that brexit's been voted for,and anyone that is exercised over brexit,has the Conservatives or the BP to display their displeasure,i sense this is the death nail for UKIP.

This result should give brexiteers food for thought,it's reasonable to surmise that if the BP hadn't stood the Conservatives could well have held off the Lib Dem by-election machine.

[aggi]

It's interesting what this means in terms of Johnson going for an early election to try and get a greater majority.

On the one hand Labour are doing poorly and they should hope to beat them.

On the other hand, the Brexit party still ate a decent chunk of the Tory vote and the Lib Dems could threaten in a fair few seats.

Add the above to the probable losses in Scotland and I can't see a second election being definitive enough to risk at the moment.

[dsr]

It's interesting what this means in terms of Johnson going for an early election to try and get a greater majority.

On the one hand Labour are doing poorly and they should hope to beat them.

On the other hand, the Brexit party still ate a decent chunk of the Tory vote and the Lib Dems could threaten in a fair few seats.

Add the above to the probable losses in Scotland and I can't see a second election being definitive enough to risk at the moment.

Given a choice, Johnson won't go for an election until after Brexit. Once we're out, assuming he doesn't sign up to some variant of May's deal, the point of the Brexit party has gone and he won't lose as many votes to them, and there is less incentive for anti-Brexit Tories to vote Labour or Liberal as well because it's too late .

Of course, the House of Commons (if they can be bothered coming back from holiday, which is presumably more important) could force him out sooner - but not by much.

[ElectroClaret]

Or you could argue that if we do have a no deal Brexit and the economy tanks, job losses, etc., then Boris might consider these the good old days.

And a missed opportunity.

[Clarets4me]

Well Darling Harold lost one pretty soon after winning in 1964 but it was later. This was when we had a Foreign Secretary who could not be answerable to Parliament because Patrick Gordon-Walker had lost his seat in Smethwick and for 4 months was FS but not an MP-he then lost a safe Labour seat a few months after October 64 as Harold fixed it for a Labour MP to stand down from a safe Labour seat somewhere in the London area- and Labour lost so Harold had to find a new FS

The by-election was in Leyton, London in January 1965. " Darling Harold " made the long serving MP, Reg Sorensen a Life Peer to engineer a by-election. The good people of Leyton realised they were being used, and Labour lost by 205 votes, on a 8.7% swing ( a big swing in those days ). What is not often remembered, is that Patrick Gordon-Walker won the seat at the 1966 General Election and held it until his retirement from the House in February 1974.

[elwaclaret]

The prime minister’s path is clear.
Push and push for an October Brexit.
Fail to deliver Brexit.
Blame Parliament.
Call a snap election.
Liberals become the opposition and Labour is smashed
The Tories sweep to power on the back of Brexit failure and with a position to implement policy at will for the next 5 years.

This could in reality save the Torres while splitting labour like a coconut.

Great for Torres and Brexiteers in the longer term.... but very bad for Britain. Replacing one set of bickering amateurs with another. The Liberals in having become the “anti-brexit” In opposition will prove as green as their allies when in comes to domestic policy.

I don’t think the Torres will be particularly concerned about the result.

[nil_desperandum]

The prime minister’s path is clear.
Push and push for an October Brexit.
Fail to deliver Brexit.
Blame Parliament.
Call a snap election.
Liberals become the opposition and Labour is smashed
The Tories sweep to power on the back of Brexit failure and with a position to implement policy at will for the next 5 years.

This could in reality save the Torres while splitting labour like a coconut.

Great for Torres and Brexiteers in the longer term.... but very bad for Britain. Replacing one set of bickering amateurs with another. The Liberals in having become the “anti-brexit” In opposition will prove as green as their allies when in comes to domestic policy.

I don’t think the Torres will be particularly concerned about the result.

But that post / theory has an assumption that there's a built in national majority for a "no deal" brexit, whereas in reality it's dubious that there is a majority throughout the UK for any type of brexit, so it would be a huge gamble.

[Spijed]

I don’t think the Torres will be particularly concerned about the result.

Always seemed the case when he played for Liverpool!

[elwaclaret]

But that post / theory has an assumption that there's a built in national majority for a "no deal" brexit, whereas in reality it's dubious that there is a majority throughout the UK for any type of brexit, so it would be a huge gamble.

See your point, pretty much the case they were making on the BEEB after the result. But that is the “master stroke” by failing to land Brexit by the October deadline. No deal becomes less of an issue once the deadline fails. The Torres then have 5 years to get their new deal and run the country before anyone can realistically prevent them doing pretty much whatever they please.

As a Brexiteer, I’m more worried about the potential power of the next Tory government than I am about Brexit not happening. Last nights result will in the long term serve the Tories far better than having a dodgy MP returned with a small majority.

[Damo]

12,000 people thought a convicted thief was the best option

[Woodleyclaret]

Corbyn out.
Totally out of touch with Labour voters and their real concerns education housing and jobs
Labour are unelectable as a government with Corbyn and his Trots running the party.
When the Liberals are seen as a Tory alternative vote you know the games up

[elwaclaret]

Corbyn out.
Totally out of touch with Labour voters and their real concerns education housing and jobs
Labour are unelectable as a government with Corbyn and his Trots running the party.
When the Liberals are seen as a Tory alternative vote you know the games up

The signs have been there for a good while. While remainders gloat this is desperate for labour. Unbelievable that the opposition is more split than the government.... can see two labour parties emerging.... the pro remainders will then join the liberals and we are back to a Tory /Whig system..... Tory heaven.

[AndrewJB]

Corbyn out.
Totally out of touch with Labour voters and their real concerns education housing and jobs
Labour are unelectable as a government with Corbyn and his Trots running the party.
When the Liberals are seen as a Tory alternative vote you know the games up

What are Labour's policies on education, housing, and jobs - and how are these different to before Corbyn became leader?

[SonofPog]

We can all blame it on Corbyn, i'm sure that you've got your opinions on him.

But the solidifying of votes into two parties is also a long term phenomena due to the FPTP system. You vote for who you don't want,

and currently you've got not just party politics but Brexit to contend with, offering another binary choice. PC and the greens didn't stand to allow the remain vote to go to the LDs, Leavers were more likely to vote Tory or BP than Labour.

[aggi]

Given a choice, Johnson won't go for an election until after Brexit. Once we're out, assuming he doesn't sign up to some variant of May's deal, the point of the Brexit party has gone and he won't lose as many votes to them, and there is less incentive for anti-Brexit Tories to vote Labour or Liberal as well because it's too late .

Of course, the House of Commons (if they can be bothered coming back from holiday, which is presumably more important) could force him out sooner - but not by much.

Possibly, but the risk is that Brexit goes badly or doesn't happen (and Johnson isn't successful in blaming it all on the EU). The rhetoric is all well and good but if people find that the cost of their weekly shop has gone up by 25% then that will quickly take priority.

They've all been doing such a good job this year that they clearly deserve the holiday.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Plaid and Greens never fielded a candidate leaving Lib Dem’s as the only true pro Remain party.

It would be interesting if say the Tories stepped aside in Nick Clegg’s old seat in Sheffield leaving contest to Labour, Lib Dem’s and Brexit Party

This is probably one of the bottom 10 seats in the U.K. for the Brexit Party. Hallam is a Remain / Liberal heartland. I look down my road at election time and yellow posters are everywhere.

Proof that even well educated neighbours have no common sense

[Imploding Turtle]

This is probably one of the bottom 10 seats in the U.K. for the Brexit Party. Hallam is a Remain / Liberal heartland. I look down my road at election time and yellow posters are everywhere.

Proof that even well educated neighbours have no common sense

Fundamentally dumb people do tend to think the educated lack common sense.

[Imploding Turtle]

12,000 people thought a convicted thief was the best option

That tells you quite a lot about those 12,000 people.

[AlargeClaret]

How in holy hell did the Tories re-appoint the same guy who got booted out by his constituents over expenses fiddling from the very same constituency? Talk about suicide

[LoveCurryPies]

Fundamentally dumb people do tend to think the educated lack common sense.

Common sense is a rare commodity!

I would like to see everyone tested for it. It would really be of great importance to potential employers.

[thatdberight]

12,000 people thought a convicted thief was the best option

There was no financial gain to him through his offences as was commented on by the judge in his case.

[thatdberight]

That tells you quite a lot about those 12,000 people.

Perhaps they know that "thief" would be an entirely inaccurate description of him in respect of the offences of which he was found guilty.

[Imploding Turtle]

Perhaps they know that "thief" would be an entirely inaccurate description of him in respect of the offences of which he was found guilty.

He forged expenses claims. 'Thief' is a perfectly adequate summation.

[Imploding Turtle]

Common sense is a rare commodity!

I would like to see everyone tested for it. It would really be of great importance to potential employers.

I think it's more that idiots put too much faith in common sense and don't know when common sense is wrong.

[dsr]

He forged expenses claims. 'Thief' is a perfectly adequate summation.

He claimed expenses to which he was entitled but he used false paperwork to get them. "Stupid" is a more adequate description. If he had obtained proper invoices from the photographer instead of writing his own, he could have claimed the expenses exactly as he did do.

Of course, "stupid" is no more valuable in parliament than "thief".

[aggi]

He claimed expenses to which he was entitled but he used false paperwork to get them. "Stupid" is a more adequate description. If he had obtained proper invoices from the photographer instead of writing his own, he could have claimed the expenses exactly as he did do.

Of course, "stupid" is no more valuable in parliament than "thief".

Stupid is a very generous description of someone who forged documents and tried to pass them off as originals. He clearly knew it was the wrong thing to do as he also tried to deceive his own staff over them.

[Colburn_Claret]

Farage has more or less ruled that out. He has some thinking to do if he wants the Brexit he desires. Plaid and the Greens pulled out..maybe he should have too and let the Tories win.

It would have been silly to pull out. The result confirms his argument that they need to do a deal.
If Tories fight their own seats, and ones they have a chance in and Farage fights for the labour seats, where the Tories have no chance it could decimate Labour.
I dont think it will happen though

[Spijed]

It would have been silly to pull out. The result confirms his argument that they need to do a deal.
If Tories fight their own seats, and ones they have a chance in and Farage fights for the labour seats, where the Tories have no chance it could decimate Labour.
I dont think it will happen though

It'll never happen because of a couple of things.

1) If either the Tories or Labour refuse to fight a seat they are saying to that part of the country that the electorate don't matter to them.
2) If the Brexit party give the Conservatives a free run there are Labour supporters who, whilst really wanting Brexit, would never vote Conservative.