Can you beat the bookies?

This Forum is the main messageboard to discuss all things Claret and Blue and beyond
Post Reply
bfccrazy
Posts: 5161
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 1:18 pm
Been Liked: 2103 times
Has Liked: 416 times
Location: Burnley

Can you beat the bookies?

Post by bfccrazy » Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:10 pm

Just watching this on IPlayer about Lloyd Griffith speaking to people about gambling and if it’s possible to beat the bookies and what different ways people are trying it.

He puts on different bets with £7,500 with just a gut instinct and with professional gamblers (where he loses). Speaks to people who have suffered from problem gambling.

It’s definitely an interesting watch.

Rick_Muller
Posts: 6122
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:53 am
Been Liked: 2630 times
Has Liked: 6440 times
Location: -90.000000, 0.000000

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Rick_Muller » Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:27 pm

Some people can beat the bookies some of the time, most people lose. The bookies always win overall.

Pstotto
Posts: 6224
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:11 pm
Been Liked: 1024 times
Has Liked: 763 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Pstotto » Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:29 pm

I gave up on trying to predict 8 score draws on the pools and instead went for 10 home wins. Surely, given the discrepancies of opposition and form, one could guess easily 10. No luck.

I decided last season to try 5 home wins at the bookies, regardless of odds. If one puts a £2 stake on 5 against odds i.e. Liverpool 2-5 to win at home to Huddersfield, the return on a £2 stake is about £15.

If one had the financial resources, that's quite a big return on an investment.

However, whenever I tried it, no luck at all. Luton and Celtic surely would win today but not etc.
This user liked this post: tim_noone

bfccrazy
Posts: 5161
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 1:18 pm
Been Liked: 2103 times
Has Liked: 416 times
Location: Burnley

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by bfccrazy » Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:36 pm

Rick_Muller wrote:Some people can beat the bookies some of the time, most people lose. The bookies always win overall.
The only person on the show who would consistently win with no risk ...... got their accounts banned/restricted massively within a few bets.

The answer of the question of the title was ..... “unless you ‘cheat’ then no you won’t”
This user liked this post: Rick_Muller

Pstotto
Posts: 6224
Joined: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:11 pm
Been Liked: 1024 times
Has Liked: 763 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Pstotto » Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:36 pm

I have an aquaintace in one of the local pubs who buys and sells bets. I don't know how he does it, but he makes good money on it. However he's a qualified doctor, I imagine he's a lot brighter than I am, case proven.

Quickenthetempo
Posts: 18028
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:35 am
Been Liked: 3860 times
Has Liked: 2068 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Quickenthetempo » Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:23 pm

You would have to beat mathematics. That's all it is to them.
They work out the odds heavily in their favour, get three outcomes for the result and get other punters to bet against you.

Win win win for them.

South West Claret.
Posts: 5642
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:55 pm
Been Liked: 766 times
Has Liked: 499 times
Location: Devon

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by South West Claret. » Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:30 pm

No.

Swizzlestick
Posts: 4064
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:40 pm
Been Liked: 1507 times
Has Liked: 580 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Swizzlestick » Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:33 pm

Matched betting is still the only real way to make a guaranteed profit - i.e. laying off bets to take advantage of free bet offers usually on sign up to a betting site. But these are getting increasingly stingy and it's easy to get hooked when you've had the buzz of making a bit of money. There's also arbing, which is a little beyond my comprehension. Bookies are obviously hot on all this so easy for them to pull the plug.

Far too easy to bet these days particularly when it's just numbers on a screen and you're not having to physically hand money over to a bookie. The 'casinos' are even worse and prey on the most vulnerable.

Notsosuperstevedavis
Posts: 299
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:59 pm
Been Liked: 101 times
Has Liked: 31 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Notsosuperstevedavis » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:06 pm

I've managed to double my money so far

dsr
Posts: 15206
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 4569 times
Has Liked: 2259 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by dsr » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:09 pm

The only way to beat the bookies is by knowing things that they don't, so you can see when the odds they are offering are overstated. Not many people have enough specialised knowledge to do that, and many of those who do know stuff (eg. players and managers) are banned from using it.

FactualFrank
Posts: 25445
Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2016 12:46 am
Been Liked: 6930 times
Has Liked: 11660 times
Location: Leeds

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:10 pm

It depends on the game. Which game is it?

Right_winger
Posts: 2105
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2016 9:28 pm
Been Liked: 492 times
Has Liked: 411 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Right_winger » Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:10 am

Very difficult to beat the bookies. The best chance you have is by betting odds-on singles, even then you must research and it’s a painstakingly slow and calculated process.

Betting to make money doesn’t work, having a bet for a bit of fun/interest is fine just keep the stakes low and enjoy.
These 2 users liked this post: Bordeauxclaret tim_noone

Tall Paul
Posts: 7175
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:07 am
Been Liked: 2564 times
Has Liked: 692 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Tall Paul » Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:49 am

Right_winger wrote:Very difficult to beat the bookies. The best chance you have is by betting odds-on singles, even then you must research and it’s a painstakingly slow and calculated process.

Betting to make money doesn’t work, having a bet for a bit of fun/interest is fine just keep the stakes low and enjoy.
Tell that to the thousands of professional sports bettors who beat the bookies on a regular basis.

Carport
Posts: 576
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 8:24 am
Been Liked: 180 times
Has Liked: 47 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Carport » Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:56 am

Loads of gamblers have turned instead to Football Index.
https://www.footballindex.co.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://youtu.be/Ozhi6ZUYmYo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

up_the_clarets_1989
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:33 pm
Been Liked: 40 times
Has Liked: 26 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by up_the_clarets_1989 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:22 am

Started using Football Index myself about 6 months ago and really enjoying it. Made 15% profit on my initial investment and a good chunk of that has been from buying Dwight McNeil. Can only see it increasing this season.

Bordeauxclaret
Posts: 10307
Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:36 pm
Been Liked: 3337 times
Has Liked: 1954 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:37 am

up_the_clarets_1989 wrote:Started using Football Index myself about 6 months ago and really enjoying it. Made 15% profit on my initial investment and a good chunk of that has been from buying Dwight McNeil. Can only see it increasing this season.
Been looking at this, what was your initial outlay and how much profit if you don’t mind me asking?

up_the_clarets_1989
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:33 pm
Been Liked: 40 times
Has Liked: 26 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by up_the_clarets_1989 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:47 am

You’ve got to put a fair amount in if you want some good money back I’d say, but they were offering a sign up offer where you got £500 risk free for a month to start off. Well worth doing that if it’s still available. I got Dwight when he was 83p a share and he’s now £1.54. If he has a good season, scored a few goals and gets call ups for England U21s then he’ll definitely shoot up.

It is a gamble and you can definitely lose money too, but you’re never going to lose your entire investment on a player unless you’re silly enough to buy someone who is on the verge of retiring.

Carport
Posts: 576
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 8:24 am
Been Liked: 180 times
Has Liked: 47 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Carport » Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:26 am

up_the_clarets_1989 wrote:You’ve got to put a fair amount in if you want some good money back I’d say, but they were offering a sign up offer where you got £500 risk free for a month to start off. Well worth doing that if it’s still available. I got Dwight when he was 83p a share and he’s now £1.54. If he has a good season, scored a few goals and gets call ups for England U21s then he’ll definitely shoot up.

It is a gamble and you can definitely lose money too, but you’re never going to lose your entire investment on a player unless you’re silly enough to buy someone who is on the verge of retiring.
It’s now £1000 risk free

Carnsmerry12
Posts: 355
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:54 pm
Been Liked: 58 times
Has Liked: 186 times
Location: Cornwall

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Carnsmerry12 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:47 am

I only bet on the horses and I tend to follow a few trainers and a small number of their horses. I do not bet on every race the horses run, I try to be selective and take into account their future entries etc. For me each way bets are more profitable.
When I go racing I focus on the first and last race, hoping to pay for my bets and then take home some winnings In the long run the bookies may well win but its good fun trying to beat them as long as you only bet what you can afford to lose.
This user liked this post: tim_noone

tim_noone
Posts: 17108
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:12 pm
Been Liked: 4384 times
Has Liked: 15117 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by tim_noone » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:16 pm

Carnsmerry12 wrote:I only bet on the horses and I tend to follow a few trainers and a small number of their horses. I do not bet on every race the horses run, I try to be selective and take into account their future entries etc. For me each way bets are more profitable.
When I go racing I focus on the first and last race, hoping to pay for my bets and then take home some winnings In the long run the bookies may well win but its good fun trying to beat them as long as you only bet what you can afford to lose.
Interesting programme of the Thread title on BBC 1 now. As per title.

Dyched
Posts: 5941
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:34 am
Been Liked: 1922 times
Has Liked: 446 times

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Dyched » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:20 pm

I need to get on this court siding malarky
This user liked this post: tim_noone

Belial
Posts: 1679
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:10 pm
Been Liked: 381 times
Has Liked: 320 times
Location: On a crazy train

Re: Can you beat the bookies?

Post by Belial » Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:43 am

Swizzlestick wrote:Matched betting is still the only real way to make a guaranteed profit - i.e. laying off bets to take advantage of free bet offers usually on sign up to a betting site. But these are getting increasingly stingy and it's easy to get hooked when you've had the buzz of making a bit of money. There's also arbing, which is a little beyond my comprehension. Bookies are obviously hot on all this so easy for them to pull the plug.

Far too easy to bet these days particularly when it's just numbers on a screen and you're not having to physically hand money over to a bookie. The 'casinos' are even worse and prey on the most vulnerable.
I made a modest few £k in the first year of MB, however bookies are savvy and keeping accounts alive is tedious. Arb'ing is a sure fire way to have them closed very quickly

Post Reply