Reached the peak of our spending...

MDWat · Post by **MDWat** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:16 am

...now recruitment for the future is essential.

I've been a regular critic of our transfer strategy over the past 6 windows or so, wishing for us either sign someone new and exciting, or to start signing a larger number of 'conveyor belt' players but I've been having a think and wonder whether this approach is only starting to become truly relevant now.

Are we now at the place where we've got the optimum quality in the side, and at the peak of our spending power? The money in the Premier League, whilst still getting bigger, isn't getting bigger to the extent that we're going to be getting £250m a season. The difference is a couple of million here or there which I say lightly given what's going on at Bury and Bolton at the moment, but isn't going to have a great impact on the amount of money we spend. The fees for players are at astronomical levels now. For example, Bournemouth signed Lloyd Kelly for £13m this summer, just £2m less than our transfer record spent on Wood and Gibson, a chap who has played 43 games in the Championship and has 4 England U21 caps.

We've got a squad now bursting with internationals, no doubt on large money relevant to us. Are we only likely to buy a big money player when we've sold a big money player and is that the right approach? Just taking two names that we were linked with in the summer as an example, if we sold Tarkowski for £50m, is it only then that we could sign Fry and Maehle for, say, a combined £30m? If so, that means our scouting and recruitment is now more essential than it's ever been. If it's right and this is our model, we've spent 3-4 years getting the right level of quality at high wages but we won't ever go beyond that unless the money keeps increasing.

Thinking about it, it's a really sensible approach as long as we get the balance right between having the right level of quality in the squad but getting the right players on the conveyor belt, selling them at the right time for a good price and re-investing on the right players who fit the same model. Let's hope the scouting department is going in the right direction and we can keep up this success for years to come.

Falcon · Post by **Falcon** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:19 am

I think that's the reality unless you have a billionaire willing to just pump money in.

COBBLE · Post by **COBBLE** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:48 am

Nothing wrong with the above analysis.

We buy or develop young players and sell at their peak value. We can then afford a Fry or Maehle. This in turn encourages potential targets and the best of the development discards from the top 6 to come to us. This won't stop us needing to keep up to strength from time to time, with a Pieters or Bardsley. Only working model other than becoming the play thing of a billionaire.

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:00 pm

What's interesting is that lately we have been buying under 23 players to develop for a year or two. That's surely part of the strategy, perhaps because players like Morrison and Brookes are not attracted to Burnley, or maybe are too much of a gamble.

It would be interesting to see how Adams and Maupay do this season as presumably on transfer fees anyway they were affordable but perhaps on wages, not.

A player of the quality of Defour was only available as it was a gamble, and Drinkwater (I hope of similar quality) because he is effectively priced out of a sale for a couple of years and has no place at Chelsea. Such quality players would in normal circumstances be beyond us.

BOYSIE31 · Post by **BOYSIE31** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:02 pm

MDWat wrote:...now recruitment for the future is essential.

I've been a regular critic of our transfer strategy over the past 6 windows or so, wishing for us either sign someone new and exciting, or to start signing a larger number of 'conveyor belt' players but I've been having a think and wonder whether this approach is only starting to become truly relevant now.

Are we now at the place where we've got the optimum quality in the side, and at the peak of our spending power? The money in the Premier League, whilst still getting bigger, isn't getting bigger to the extent that we're going to be getting £250m a season. The difference is a couple of million here or there which I say lightly given what's going on at Bury and Bolton at the moment, but isn't going to have a great impact on the amount of money we spend. The fees for players are at astronomical levels now. For example, Bournemouth signed Lloyd Kelly for £13m this summer, just £2m less than our transfer record spent on Wood and Gibson, a chap who has played 43 games in the Championship and has 4 England U21 caps.

We've got a squad now bursting with internationals, no doubt on large money relevant to us. Are we only likely to buy a big money player when we've sold a big money player and is that the right approach? Just taking two names that we were linked with in the summer as an example, if we sold Tarkowski for £50m, is it only then that we could sign Fry and Maehle for, say, a combined £30m? If so, that means our scouting and recruitment is now more essential than it's ever been. If it's right and this is our model, we've spent 3-4 years getting the right level of quality at high wages but we won't ever go beyond that unless the money keeps increasing.

Thinking about it, it's a really sensible approach as long as we get the balance right between having the right level of quality in the squad but getting the right players on the conveyor belt, selling them at the right time for a good price and re-investing on the right players who fit the same model. Let's hope the scouting department is going in the right direction and we can keep up this success for years to come.

Good post but what happens when 90% need replacing due to their age with no re sale value ?

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:16 pm

We have an incredible squad now. Two full teams of PL players, all on PL wages. This wasn't the case in the two promotion seasons where we had a much tighter squad on Championship wages. It is wonderful to have direct cover in every position where previously guys filled in where needed but it is the outgoings on squad players that is stopping us signing super players. It's a catch 22. cut the squad to sign a top player and he, possibly, gets injured or stick with the bigger squad. For my part I'm just thrilled we are improving, growing and staying in the PL.

Royboyclaret · Post by **Royboyclaret** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:17 pm

Not for one minute do I think we've reached the peak of our potential spending power. The overseas broadcast Income has just increased by 35% for the current three year deal and with the continuing emergence and growth of the Chinese market there's no reason to believe a similar increase won't be available next time round.

If we stay in the PL I can envisage in some five seasons our Turnover approaching £180million. At those levels a transfer fee of £30million should be well within our compass.

Granny WeatherWax · Post by **Granny WeatherWax** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:19 pm

Royboyclaret wrote:Not for one minute do I think we've reached the peak of our spending power. The overseas broadcast Income has just increased by 35% for the current three year deal and with the continuing emergence and growth of the Chinese market there's no reason to believe a similar increase won't be available next time round.

If we stay in the PL I can envisage in some five seasons our Turnover approaching £180million. At those levels a transfer fee of £30million should be well within our compass.

The problem is that the £30m fee suddenly becomes £50m, prices will rise relative to levels of income. We cant afford to compete at that level and never will be able to too. Thats why our scouting needs to improve.

ksrclaret · Post by **ksrclaret** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:21 pm

Excellent post. If the transfer window gone by tells us anything, it's that (generally) we can no longer afford to sign players who will improve the starting 11 immediately.

That means we must start to sign players who have great potential, but aren't there yet. Now, that's going to be incredibly hard because players who've just had a good season in the championship are now out of our price range. Think about Kalvin Phillips, a good season at Leeds, but we never had a hope of securing him. These players are going for £20m plus now.

So we need to look a level below that, but this is going to require highly skilled levels of scouting. Players like Matt Clarke, Krystian Bielik and Joe Aribo wouldn't improve us straight away, but these are the types we should be looking at now to get on that conveyor belt. Buy them now for a relatively cheap price, develop them, put them in when we sell and hopefully they'll be just as good as the ones they succeed.

Hopefully the market will level out soon, or even collapse, because whilst the strategy above will work for a few years, if the current trend continues soon those types will be out of reach.

Darnhill Claret · Post by **Darnhill Claret** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:22 pm

Hey there MDWat, good to hear you knocking on the ‘happy clapper’ door. When you walk in, there are lots of different rooms to visit. The people outside think there’s only one room with everyone agreeing on everything. Wrong. Lots of different rooms with different subjects, themes and ideas to discuss, where we learn to accept all manner of things, whilst continuing to verbally support our club, our players and our management team as they continue to do the best they can, despite all the challenges that smaller clubs face, to succeed. What is success? Does the definition of success change season on season. How important is our continuing support? Can we keep negativity to a minimum? Can we establish ourselves as part of that group just outside the top 6 along with Wolves and Leicester. The sports media include Everton and West Ham above us, I think we can get above those two. Again welcome, hope you’re here for the long haul.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:15 pm

Tricky Trevor wrote:We have an incredible squad now. Two full teams of PL players, all on PL wages. This wasn't the case in the two promotion seasons where we had a much tighter squad on Championship wages. It is wonderful to have direct cover in every position where previously guys filled in where needed but it is the outgoings on squad players that is stopping us signing super players. It's a catch 22. cut the squad to sign a top player and he, possibly, gets injured or stick with the bigger squad. For my part I'm just thrilled we are improving, growing and staying in the PL.

Cutting the squad to sign the better player on higher wages isn't the way Dyche works. Above all else, he builds a squad where they're all in it together, not a squad where 10 average Premier players rotate around 1 star.

jdrobbo · Post by **jdrobbo** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:21 pm

Excellent thoughts MD: delighted that some of my positivity is finally rubbing off on you!

Cleveleys_claret · Post by **Cleveleys_claret** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:27 pm

I believe that we now have a squad that is capable of winning a cup game. That is how good I think we are now

ClaretTony · Post by **ClaretTony** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:30 pm

jdrobbo wrote:Excellent thoughts MD: delighted that some of my positivity is finally rubbing off on you!

Surely you are not taking the credit John.

I think more are understanding now when Dyche talks about windows and recruitment being difficult for us. We’d all like to make the big signings but that’s not how it will ever work at Burnley. It’s not perfect by any means but I do think we are doing things in the best way we can.

Spike · Post by **Spike** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:33 pm

if we continue to add a couple of quality signings every window, incl January, then we will continue to improve.

That is if we don't let everyone run their contracts down

padihamclaret · Post by **padihamclaret** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:35 pm

We need to look at other ways of developing income, the commercial side. What this entails I don't have a clue to be honest

jdrobbo · Post by **jdrobbo** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:40 pm

ClaretTony wrote:Surely you are not taking the credit John.

I think more are understanding now when Dyche talks about windows and recruitment being difficult for us. We’d all like to make the big signings but that’s not how it will ever work at Burnley. It’s not perfect by any means but I do think we are doing things in the best way we can.

Absolutely not. Not my idea at all. Merely stating that for once MD is being positive, so some of my positivity must’ve rubbed off on MD

BOYSIE31 · Post by **BOYSIE31** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:44 pm

We need a backer - end off

BOYSIE31 · Post by **BOYSIE31** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:45 pm

But its no good having a majority of the squad almost in their 30's either

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:48 pm

BOYSIE31 wrote:We need a backer - end off

When though?

The manner of Saturday's victory suggests we will be comfortable this season at the very least, and probably quite competitive as well.

BOYSIE31 · Post by **BOYSIE31** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:50 pm

So they might come calling again

bfcmik · Post by **bfcmik** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:00 pm

I don't think it is simply the finances that make our transfer windows difficult.

With every rise in the transfer fee comes a commensurate rise in wage demands. When you have such a tight knot squad you have to keep wages reasonably similar or you risk disharmony with your other top players demanding equivalency.

Our demands on the character and work ethic of every member of our squad severely restricts the market we can search. If you put a big X next to 95% of the available players in our price range then you are shopping in Charter Walk rather than the Trafford Centre.

Finally there is the reputation of the club and our perceived position in the football hierarchy. We have been determined by the media to be a one trick pony who, whilst being good at that trick, will not be able to learn a new trick anytime soon. We are described as a hard, nasty, long ball team with few redeeming qualities and very few players, or their agents, want to become part of that labelling. Even we fans believe that our time at this top table is a short term thing and we should enjoy it whilst we can - so why should any agent think any different? They may point out to their client that they may end up having to play Championship football if they come to Burnley. I don't know any agents or how they work but that is what I would expect my agent to say (if I needed one)

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:07 pm

We need to be looking for the next Tarky or Charlie Taylor, good age, with resale value, we have failed to do that in the last 3 windows.

BOYSIE31 · Post by **BOYSIE31** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:07 pm

We will never ever compete with the big 6 but hopefully we could try and compete with most of the rest as they have no problem funding new players.

Down_Rover · Post by **Down_Rover** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:17 pm

AndyClaret wrote:We need to be looking for the next Tarky or Charlie Taylor, good age, with resale value, we have failed to do that in the last 3 windows.

how do you know?

Benson, Dunn, Goodridge BPF, the young full back from Bury and a few I have forgotten. You cant judge the last couple or three windows until these lads or the next generation come of age

No Ney Never · Post by **No Ney Never** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:24 pm

While off the field improvements require funding, we'll never reach the peak of our spending power on recruitment.

ClaretTony · Post by **ClaretTony** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:26 pm

AndyClaret wrote:We need to be looking for the next Tarky or Charlie Taylor, good age, with resale value, we have failed to do that in the last 3 windows.

We haven’t though. We continue to bring in young players who hopefully can increase in value. There looks to be some potential there that can go on to supplement our first team or bring in profits.

BOYSIE31 · Post by **BOYSIE31** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:34 pm

ClaretTony wrote:We haven’t though. We continue to bring in young players who hopefully can increase in value. There looks to be some potential there that can go on to supplement our first team or bring in profits.

Who these that are signed for the U23'S ?

ClaretTony · Post by **ClaretTony** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:35 pm

BOYSIE31 wrote:Who these that are signed for the U23'S ?

They are signed for Burnley Football Club

Stockbrokerbelt · Post by **Stockbrokerbelt** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:41 pm

Another question is how long can transfer fees continue rising as they have, even some of the big clubs are struggling to compete, i’m Sure it will be a case where the madness slows down as even rich individuals have a ceiling.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:46 pm

ClaretTony wrote:We haven’t though. We continue to bring in young players who hopefully can increase in value. There looks to be some potential there that can go on to supplement our first team or bring in profits.

I was talking about the first team, Tarky was signed after Shackell left / before Keane left, Taylor was signed to compete with Ward.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:49 pm

BOYSIE31 wrote:We will never ever compete with the big 6 but hopefully we could try and compete with most of the rest as they have no problem funding new players.

They all have sugar daddies,even the Championship has several rich owners,who if required can subsidise the wages for a season or two.

We compete on the pitch which is ultimately where it matters.

ClaretTony · Post by **ClaretTony** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:52 pm

AndyClaret wrote:I was talking about the first team, Tarky was signed after Shackell left / before Keane left, Taylor was signed to compete with Ward.

There’s more than one way to skin a cat

BOYSIE31 · Post by **BOYSIE31** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:59 pm

ClaretTony wrote:They are signed for Burnley Football Club

I know that but looking back over our history we do not have a good record in this field do we ?

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:00 pm

Stockbrokerbelt wrote:Another question is how long can transfer fees continue rising as they have, even some of the big clubs are struggling to compete, i’m Sure it will be a case where the madness slows down as even rich individuals have a ceiling.

People have said this for a number of years and it's still snowballing,it's not the transfer fees that are BFC'S biggest problem,wages and the perception that we are just a visitor to the top table,all count against us when it comes to bargaining with other competitors.

I haven't got the list to hand,but i'm pretty sure Arsenal and Tottenham broke their transfer record again this window,and compared to some they are relatively sane in the market.

When you have decent Championship players going for £15-20m,it's bound to increase the top end of the marketplace.

And if the whole house of cards does collapse,i'd rather our prudent strategy than the debt mountain that the PL has become.

ITV Digital should serve as a reminder that nothing is certain regarding future revenues.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:23 pm

tiger76 wrote:People have said this for a number of years and it's still snowballing,it's not the transfer fees that are BFC'S biggest problem,wages and the perception that we are just a visitor to the top table,all count against us when it comes to bargaining with other competitors.

I haven't got the list to hand,but i'm pretty sure Arsenal and Tottenham broke their transfer record again this window,and compared to some they are relatively sane in the market.

When you have decent Championship players going for £15-20m,it's bound to increase the top end of the marketplace.

And if the whole house of cards does collapse,i'd rather our prudent strategy than the debt mountain that the PL has become.

ITV Digital should serve as a reminder that nothing is certain regarding future revenues.

Wont be collapsing anytime soon.

ITV Digital should only serve as a reminder that there is no interest in NON Premier league football globally, or that much in England tbh.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:37 pm

I don't think we've reached out limit, I don't think we will ever sign any "big name" players nor would I want us to, I do think we can afford players that can improve our first team though. I don't think anybody thought we would get someone like DD albeit on loan, as always a lot will depend on how long Dyche stays

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:45 pm

Spijed wrote:When though?

The manner of Saturday's victory suggests we will be comfortable this season at the very least, and probably quite competitive as well.

In the end it was a superb victory on Saturday, but for an hour we didn't look that impressive (conditions may have affected some of the play) and Sean Dyche will have clocked that of course. But we just have such a resillient and tough spine that we are hard to beat (for teams like Souhampton anyway. A couple of postions will be improved upon I am sure. That goes for mosr teams though. Its great to be a Claret now.

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:59 pm

BOYSIE31 wrote:We need a backer - end off

Of the 20 PL clubs we're the only ones without a rich backer who's willing to write off/cover debts/losses (maybe Norwich is the next one like us?)

Out of interest, seeing as you're so adamant that we need one, can you remember the last significant long term change to the top 6, aside from Leicester picking up that one title win?

Everyone else has had money poured into them and they can't come close to cracking the top 6.
Wolves might have a chance but they've needed to pretty much buy themselves a super agent to give them a chance at signing decent players.

What exactly would having a benefactor enable us to do that would be different to what the majority of the PL do?

Cleveleys_claret · Post by **Cleveleys_claret** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:25 pm

We would all like to see us signing younger players that go straight into the first team but it is unlikely to happen. Why spend 15m plus on a young player who may or may not make it when you can pick up an Erik Pieters or Bardsley for little over a million who will still play for you for 3 years?

Best years ahead of them - Pope - Taylor - Tarks - McNeil

Hitting their peak - Mee - Westwood - Cork - Guddy - Barnes - Wood - Lowton

As good as our first 11 there....not a bad mix to me. So what we dont have loads of 19 year olds in the team, who really does? These kids are often a false economy. Name me a side that have signed 3 under 23's in the last 3 seasons and sold them on for massive profit.

Look at Leicester, yes they signed Maddison but the last before him was probably Gray who was about 15m...they would struggle to get that now.

Bournemouth - Brooks yes, his value has rocketed but at 15m fee they will probs want 50m. No top team will pay that when they go Spain and but a young kid for half the price. Ibe 20m and leaving on a free at end of season, Solanke 20m wouldnt find a buyer for half that

Down_Rover · Post by **Down_Rover** » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:54 pm

BOYSIE31 wrote:I know that but looking back over our history we do not have a good record in this field do we ?

It’s the future that counts and we are doing the right things now