Julie Cooper MP to stand down .... ?

[ŽižkovClaret]

Out of interest . Will you be eligible to vote?

Yup eligible until i've been away for 15 years, and so i will continue to vote until then, or i become a Czech citizen, (at which time i am eligible to vote here) whichever happens sooner

[SingaporeClarets]

Do you mean EEA or EFTA? The EEC hasn't been a thing for many years.

I meant EEA (EFTA members by definition are within the EEA as are all EU members).

[TVC15]

At 1.24 am in the morning that's as good as I'd expect from you.

However, its still a fail from me!

Is there some kind of cut off time now Drongo ?
Just wondering with your post being at 12.25am.
What is going through your mind when you are posting this kind of sh-it ?

[tiger76]

I'm no Labour supporter and won't be voting for them this time,if and when Corbyn goes that might change,however there's going to be a lot of disappointed people in Burnley on the 13th December,because Julie Cooper will be re-elected,i can't see Labour's vote falling below 40%,and with the split opposition that'll be more than enough for victory.

The only viable contenders are the tories,but their ceiling is the mid-30's in seats like Burnley,and assuming the BP stand and Charlie Briggs,both could score around 10%,i can also see some Lib Dems voting for Julie as the anti-tory option,so it actually suits the Labour narrative that the Conservatives are the main challengers,and this should also help Labour's GOTV operation,lastly have the Greens confirmed they're definitely standing in Burnley,i note that in some seats they're sitting this election out,and backing the Labour/Lib Dems candidates best placed to win as part of a remain alliance pact.

[Spijed]

For anyone interested, there is a good link to the analysis of the election in Burnley:

http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/13275/burnley" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RingoMcCartney]

Yup eligible until i've been away for 15 years, and so i will continue to vote until then, or i become a Czech citizen, (at which time i am eligible to vote here) whichever happens sooner

In Burnley?

[RingoMcCartney]

Is there some kind of cut off time now Drongo ?
Just wondering with your post being at 12.25am.
What is going through your mind when you are posting this kind of sh-it ?

What was going through my mind?

This is boring now. Time for bed.

[ŽižkovClaret]

In Burnley?

Aye, it goes off last UK address and i moved to Burnley for a year before i made my escape

Feels a bit futile in what can feel like a "red rosette on a donkey" town, but i feel like every vote may just count this time.

[Top Claret]

Labour are capitulating before our eyes, wonderful news for the country

[basil6345789]

I'm no Labour supporter and won't be voting for them this time,if and when Corbyn goes that might change,however there's going to be a lot of disappointed people in Burnley on the 13th December,because Julie Cooper will be re-elected,i can't see Labour's vote falling below 40%,and with the split opposition that'll be more than enough for victory.

The only viable contenders are the tories,but their ceiling is the mid-30's in seats like Burnley,and assuming the BP stand and Charlie Briggs,both could score around 10%,i can also see some Lib Dems voting for Julie as the anti-tory option,so it actually suits the Labour narrative that the Conservatives are the main challengers,and this should also help Labour's GOTV operation,lastly have the Greens confirmed they're definitely standing in Burnley,i note that in some seats they're sitting this election out,and backing the Labour/Lib Dems candidates best placed to win as part of a remain alliance pact.

I think Charlie Briggs will get more than 10%. He is well known locally, has no ties with traitors , is dead honest and hard-working. Nah, he'll never make an MP!

[Spijed]

Labour are capitulating before our eyes, wonderful news for the country

And the Tories aren't?

A candidate who says women are partially to blame if they are raped.
JRM says people are too thick to leave a burning tower block.
A MP who's says JRM is cleverer than people who burnt to death in a tower block.

[Clarets4me]

I think Charlie Briggs will get more than 10%. He is well known locally, has no ties with traitors , is dead honest and hard-working. Nah, he'll never make an MP!

I think that's optimistic ... Burnley has an electorate of around 64,000, if you get a turnout of 65%, then 4,160 votes would be the mark for 10% ...

I think he'll do well to save his deposit, which means 2,080 votes ...

[Lowbankclaret]

I think that's optimistic ... Burnley has an electorate of around 64,000, if you get a turnout of 65%, then 4,160 votes would be the mark for 10% ...

I think he'll do well to save his deposit, which means 2,080 votes ...

Normal turn out is about 40,000.

[Clarets4me]

Normal turn out is about 40,000.

I worked on 65% turnout on an electorate of 64,000, ie: 41,600 so we're in the same ballpark ....

[tiger76]

I can see this election in Burnley bearing more resemblance to 2010 and 2015,when the winning candidate on both occasions polled under 40%,and the minor parties scored around a 3rd of the vote,this time it's clearly a Lab/Con battle,not a Lab/Lib battle,if the BP stand it's hard not to see them taking a decent vote share,although this may be tempered by a Conservative and Labour squeeze message in a FPTP scenario,both the BP and the BPIP candidates have strong local roots and both should comfortably save their deposits,as might the Greens if they choose to stand,but it's incredibly difficult for any candidate to win without the backing of a party machine.

My instinct and this has no scientific basis,so feel free to take it with a huge pinch of salt.

Labour 35
Conservative 30
BP 12
BPIP 10
Lib Dems 8
Greens 5

If the BP stands in the northern England Labour heartlands,i can see many results in a similar vein to this,even with brexit the Conservatives have a ceiling in many traditional Labour seats of about 30% of the vote,that's why despite taking a good chunk of the UKIP vote in 2017 they had a lot of near misses in heavily leave areas.

[AndyClaret]

And the Tories aren't?

A candidate who says women are partially to blame if they are raped.
JRM says people are too thick to leave a burning tower block.
A MP who's says JRM is cleverer than people who burnt to death in a tower block.

Some top class whataboutary there, whereas Labour candidates just hate Jews, well done everyone.

[CardyTheClaret]

I can see this election in Burnley bearing more resemblance to 2010 and 2015,when the winning candidate on both occasions polled under 40%,and the minor parties scored around a 3rd of the vote,this time it's clearly a Lab/Con battle,not a Lab/Lib battle,if the BP stand it's hard not to see them taking a decent vote share,although this may be tempered by a Conservative and Labour squeeze message in a FPTP scenario,both the BP and the BPIP candidates have strong local roots and both should comfortably save their deposits,as might the Greens if they choose to stand,but it's incredibly difficult for any candidate to win without the backing of a party machine.

My instinct and this has no scientific basis,so feel free to take it with a huge pinch of salt.

Labour 35
Conservative 30
BP 12
BPIP 10
Lib Dems 8
Greens 5

If the BP stands in the northern England Labour heartlands,i can see many results in a similar vein to this,even with brexit the Conservatives have a ceiling in many traditional Labour seats of about 30% of the vote,that's why despite taking a good chunk of the UKIP vote in 2017 they had a lot of near misses in heavily leave areas.

This has it much closer....

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... at=Burnley" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The fact that Burnley could be close to having a Tory MP tells you all you need need to know about the state of the Labour Party.

[Lancasterclaret]

Some top class whataboutary there, whereas Labour candidates just hate Jews, well done everyone.

Not for the first time, my irony filter crashes as Andy rants about whataboutery

[AndyClaret]

Not for the first time, my irony filter crashes as Andy rants about whataboutery

Not arguing with the substance again i see.

[Clarets4me]

This has it much closer....

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... at=Burnley" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The fact that Burnley could be close to having a Tory MP tells you all you need need to know about the state of the Labour Party.

I've looked at the Electoral Calculus site before ..... they use a fairly broad brush approach, but to be fair, they try and estimate the votes, down to ward level !

If the Conservatives get over 1,000 votes in Rosegrove and Lowerhouse, and over 800 in Bankhall, as they predict, then we can all rip up anything we think we know about Burnley's politics ....

[Clarets4me]

I forgot to mention that I'll be running my Election competition, starting 7 days before polling day.

I did it in 2015 & 2017 ..... predict the vote share for all the Burnley Constituency Candidates, and the differences between predicted/actual vote share are added together, with the lowest scorer winning a £25 donation to the Charity of their choice .... from memory," Fatboy47 " won last time, but was in " self imposed exile " by the time polling day came round, so the £25 went to Pendleside Hospice.

Let's see what the next four weeks of campaigning brings, and then see who's got their finger on Burnley's political pulse !!

[Lowbankclaret]

I will be door knocking in the morning!!

Be interested to see the reaction on the doorstep.

Just glad I am not wearing a red and yellow rosette this time round.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12018 ... -Brexiteer" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Mala591]

Let's not forget that this is a unique one off Brexit general election.

If you (still) want to remain vote Lib Dem if you (still) want to leave vote Conservative.

This applies to Burnley just as much as to any other constituency.

[Devils_Advocate]

Let's not forget that this is a unique one off Brexit general election.

If you (still) want to remain vote Lib Dem if you (still) want to leave vote Conservative.

This applies to Burnley just as much as to any other constituency.

What if there are lots of other things just as important as Brexit to you and you either want a Labour govt or simply want rid of the wretched Tory's?

Surely a vote for Labour would be the obvious thing to do in Burnley

[Spijed]

I will be door knocking in the morning!!

Be interested to see the reaction on the doorstep.

Just glad I am not wearing a red and yellow rosette this time round.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12018 ... -Brexiteer" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Suppose it's safer than walking around parts of Northern Ireland though, wanting Brexit!

[Lowbankclaret]

Suppose it's safer than walking around parts of Northern Ireland though, wanting Brexit!

Well I am at least out there fighting for what I believe in.

Not just posting on a message board.

Not aimed at you!! Just a general observation.

Most of these Labour supporters will be sat on the couch doing jack **** to support the party they pretend to support.

[AndrewJB]

Well I am at least out there fighting for what I believe in.

Not just posting on a message board.

Not aimed at you!! Just a general observation.

Most of these Labour supporters will be sat on the couch doing jack **** to support the party they pretend to support.

Momentum are very active, and have been campaigning door to door to unseat a whole host of Tory big names - Johnson and IDS near me - for a few years. Young, energetic, and enthusiastic.

[Lowbankclaret]

Momentum are very active, and have been campaigning door to door to unseat a whole host of Tory big names - Johnson and IDS near me - for a few years. Young, energetic, and enthusiastic.

So your out there knocking on doors???

[AndrewJB]

Let's not forget that this is a unique one off Brexit general election.

If you (still) want to remain vote Lib Dem if you (still) want to leave vote Conservative.

This applies to Burnley just as much as to any other constituency.

Climate change, healthcare, jobs and working rights, housing, police and fire, taxation. These are all big issues too.

But if it’s just Brexit you’re interested in, then you can vote Labour whether you’re leave or remain!

[AndrewJB]

So your out there knocking on doors???

I will be doing that - but for the Green Party.

In my opinion online advocacy is also important. When you’re knocking on doors how many people are doing the same? When Momentum hit an area (in London) there are sixty or seventy people in pairs, covering a block of streets, and then another two or three similar sized groups also in the same constituency. They are very good (I’m told).

[Lowbankclaret]

I will be doing that - but for the Green Party.

Good for you, even less chance of you winning.

We can catch up at the count on the night!,!

[AndrewJB]

Good for you, even less chance of you winning.

We can catch up at the count on the night!,!

The Greens would do better without first past the post - much like your party. We don’t have the numbers that momentum have to make a door knock successful, but we’re generally treated respectfully. I’d imagine you get either friendliness or frostiness?

[Lowbankclaret]

The Greens would do better without first past the post - much like your party. We don’t have the numbers that momentum have to make a door knock successful, but we’re generally treated respectfully. I’d imagine you get either friendliness or frostiness?

Used to get that as a Labour canvasser.

Not sure I would like to be a Labour canvasser this time around..

[Clarets4me]

Used to get that as a Labour canvasser. Not sure I would like to be a Labour canvasser this time around..

Nor me !

From my experience when canvassing, most people are OK but quite a few are very terse. A much more experienced campaigner told me that it's because a lot of people don't bother with politics, and close down the conversation, rather than start talking about something they neither know or care about. They don't want to appear uninformed or " thick " ....

In one breath, you hear some complain that nobody ever knocks on my door or even canvasses anymore, and in the next breath, you hear others whinge that these people keep posting their " crap " through the door and trying to talk to me. As a canvasser, you can't win !

I feel for the canvassers of whatever political hue ....... imagine being the Brexit Party campaigner who knocks on " Imploding Turtle's " door, or the Liberal Democrat foot-soldier who knocks on " Ringo's " .... God bless them all !

[Spijed]

Well I am at least out there fighting for what I believe in.

Not just posting on a message board.

Not aimed at you!! Just a general observation.

Most of these Labour supporters will be sat on the couch doing jack **** to support the party they pretend to support.

Good point.

[If it be your will]

Is anyone canvassing for Labour this time? How's it going?

It was easy, and seemed very successful, in 2017. Just wondered if there was the same buzz and conviction now as there was then.

[Spijed]

Is anyone canvassing for Labour this time? How's it going?

It was easy, and seemed very successful, in 2017. Just wondered if there was the same buzz and conviction now as there was then.

A good twitter feed from Mr Goodall:
https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/11 ... 0782658561" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lowbankclaret]

I will be door knocking and then going on the turf.

Here’s to 3 points.

I will feed back what I think the voters think of us Brexiteers!!

After the match!!

[Lowbankclaret]

Interesting morning. But I think successful.

For info, you only normally get under 10% of people who answer the door. Then not all tell you anything.

But today.

8 said Brexit Party.
6 undecided
3 Tories.
2 Labour.

[tiger76]

Nicked from one of the politics sites.

(A quick update .... Julie Cooper, the Labour incumbent, stands for re-election, Stewart Scott, a local business-man is standing for the Brexit Party, Former Mayor Coun. Charlie Briggs has been confirmed as the Burnley & Padiham Independent group's Candidate, former MP Gordon Birtwistle, is standing for the Liberal Democrats for the 7th time at a General Election, and Dr Laura Fisk is again the Green Party choice.)

I'm surprised the Greens are standing TBH,but they do have councillors in the town and i suppose it builds their profile up.

Indeed all 6 parties contesting the Burnley seat have sitting councillors,that must be rare even in the multi-party system of today's politics.

Ultimately it could come down to which of the Cons/Lab can effectively squeeze the votes of the BP/BPIP'S and Greens/Lib Dems respectively,you'd assume that the former's are more brexit friendly and therefore more susceptible to the Conservatives 'get brexit done' message,whereas the latter are more likely to be anti-brexit and could be persuaded to tactically vote for Labour.

What i find bizarre is the Conservatives don't appear to have selected a candidate yet,and this could be a winnable seat on a good night for them.

You'd assume they will go local with their selection.parachuting an outsider in at the last minute would be counter-productive to say the least(Kitty Usher) cough,cough.

[Clarets4me]

Interesting morning. But I think successful.

For info, you only normally get under 10% of people who answer the door. Then not all tell you anything.

But today.

8 said Brexit Party.
6 undecided
3 Tories.
2 Labour.

Where abouts in Burnley were you canvassing ? Rosegrove with Lowerhouse ward ?

[tiger76]

Where abouts in Burnley were you canvassing ? Rosegrove with Lowerhouse ward ?

I'm guessing it wasn't Daneshouse/Stoneyholme ward that's for sure

[Lowbankclaret]

Where abouts in Burnley were you canvassing ? Rosegrove with Lowerhouse ward ?

Brunshaw

F5B696A8-6E5C-4507-B057-BF2FA66F90B3.png (478.84 KiB) Viewed 1384 times

[Spijed]

Low bank, do you think the Brexit candidate will still stand as it sounds like Farage is wavering over the number of candidates?

[Clarets4me]

Antony Higginbotham named as the Conservative Party Candidate, apparently ...

http://www.antonyhig.co.uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Clarets4me]

Low bank, do you think the Brexit candidate will still stand as it sounds like Farage is wavering over the number of candidates?

Almost 100% sure they will stand ... it's gone too far now, and Burnley has 3 Brexit Party local Councillors, and a County Councillor ...

I was at a housewarming today, a retired couple, and whilst it's only anecdotal, I was surprised to hear at least half a dozen people say that they would vote Conservative for the first time. Two were former miners in their seventies, who've voted Labour all their lives. One lovely normally gentle widow lady, in her eighties, got very exercised about Mr Corbyn. A retired nurse and ex-Labour voter, two of her son's served in Northern Ireland .... " I will NOT vote to put that man in Downing Street, when he'd have had no problem seeing my son's murdered ! "

[I luv my wife]

Clarets4me
Guess who forgot to put the bet on today

[Spijed]

Almost 100% sure they will stand ... it's gone too far now, and Burnley has 3 Brexit Party local Councillors, and a County Councillor ...

I was at a housewarming today, a retired couple, and whilst it's only anecdotal, I was surprised to hear at least half a dozen people say that they would vote Conservative for the first time. Two were former miners in their seventies, who've voted Labour all their lives. One lovely normally gentle widow lady, in her eighties, got very exercised about Mr Corbyn. A retired nurse and ex-Labour voter, two of her son's served in Northern Ireland .... " I will NOT vote to put that man in Downing Street, when he'd have had no problem seeing my son's murdered ! "

It's just that both the guardian are saying he's softening his stance towards the Tories, and Lewis Goodhall tweeted about the strange decision of bothe the Conservatives & Brexit Party yet to name candidates in certain seats.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ith-tories" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/statu ... 4922319874" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Clarets4me]

Clarets4me .... Guess who forgot to put the bet on today

What ?

" say it ain't so, Joe "

[I luv my wife]

Clarets4me
Afraid so to busy buying Christmas cards and a nice electric Christmas tree for the front window from Dawsons of clitheroe