General Election Is On

[KateR]

The trickle down theory has proved to be a load of rubbish though. The wealthy go out of their way to avoid paying tax and hide their money in dodgy schemes. And then you've got a company like Amazon which makes billions but still pays its workers peanuts and treats its warehouse workers like they're working in some third world sweat shop.

Has it, really has it, basically you're just anti rich and want them to give more. Amazon are like many other companies and it's a global issue, they are basically a US company and use that as to that is where they pay there taxes. That is the fact today very simplistic, Ireland tried to take advantage of companies like Amazon and now the EU have stepped in regarding how this was wrong and wants vast sums of money. I do not believe it's a UK GE issue but yes I would also say people and companies making money in the UK, or any other country where they do not pay taxes should have to, actually getting to do that is something else all together.

Simple concept but if someone earning a salary which is more than another person and spends the same on the same things, saves the same in the same institution means there returns will grow faster. Disposal income is an individual choice, as is going without something to save or invest in something you really want but I believe it's a fact in any capitalist society that the rich will always get richer in the main. The rich tend to take more risks, they build businesses, which provides work for others, yes of course they can afford to take bigger risks, rich is also very relative, not easy to define but maybe you can provide your concept of rich versus poor and where the dividing line is.

[RMutt]

[quote="Top Claret"]You obviously no nothing about Rossendale to call it a deprived area

I have lived in Rawtenstall for the past 3 years and the place is a boom town. Bacup is also finally taking off. House prices in the west of the valley have risen 30% over the last 4 years. Valley folk are a canny lot and they know what side their bread is buttered.[/quote

https://researchbriefings.files.parliam ... P7327.xlsx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RMutt]

To be clearer. My statement was not that Rossendale was one of the most deprived areas of the country , but that deprivation had increased by one of the largest amounts. You need to look at the change from 2015 index in the link.

[Colburn_Claret]

No. You are considering responsibility without factoring in circumstance, and the role the government plays in creating circumstances. Ten years of very severe cuts have left many families in dire situations. When you throw in the consequences of this - family breakup, Crimea, mental health issues, and stress, the normal rules around responsibility no longer work as a rational thing.

Put it this way, you say the government shouldn’t be looking after transport, but the NHS. Okay, this is arguably your self interest speaking, but if they stopped looking after the NHS and instead put the money into law enforcement, and this coincided with an expensive illness for you, your family would experience strains like never before, and someone on a messGeboard saying, “that Colburn just needs to take more responsibility” would just sound callous to you.

I accept some of what you say, the rail network certainly doesnt affect me. The difference is the NHS was never designed to make a profit, it's a service regardless of the ability to pay. The rail network should be capable of providing a service yet not lose money. I couldn't care less if it doesnt make profit for its shareholders, but it shouldnt be a burden on the country. The people using it are more often than not, using it for work, to make money for themselves. Finding a balance between a good service and an affordable wage shouldnt be that difficult, and if it is then pass it on to the employers.
The difficulty with those in need is breaking it down into categories. There are so many problems that push people to that point. Many of them I have great sympathy with, but others I think they just need to sort themselves out and give themselves a shake. Where do you draw the line is, I suppose on the individual, but it irks me when I see people claiming poverty drawing on the state, when it's their own lack of discipline or self esteem that's put them there. And it's not because it draws on my taxes, but because it detracts from people with genuine needs.
I'm sure to many on here that sounds callous, but it isnt the way I feel inside. I'm sure somebody will want examples and breakdown what I think is right and wrong, but I'm not going to bother. It would take all night, it would get pedantic, and upset the snowflakes.
As is normal I judge things on what I see in my own town, and here in sunny Colburn the poor unemployed are mostly overweight women, covered with tattoos, smoking, drinking, driving cars taking holidays, lots of kids and everything is free. It does distract from the obvious genuine cases that do exist, and it may well be a million miles from Burnley in terms of society, call it what you will, but I think it should frustrate anyone.

[Lowbankclaret]

Colburn.

Think there will be incoming.

You may need to take cover.

[Jakubclaret]

It's a lot closer than a million miles.

[Lowbankclaret]

Excellent, Boris has said no to a leave deal.

Need to get my arse in gear and deliver these 500 leaflets for Stewart.

[TheFamilyCat]

Excellent, Boris has said no to a leave deal.

Need to get my arse in gear and deliver these 500 leaflets for Stewart.

I would post 500 leaflets
And I would post 500 more
Just to be the man who posted
A thousand pages of bullshit through your door

[Lowbankclaret]

Rossendale people have always thought of themselves as a little bit more upper class.

It’s where my mother was a councillor and I did loads of door knocking, the amount of people living in council houses that voted Tory used to amaze me.

[Lowbankclaret]

I would post 500 leaflets
And I would post 500 more
Just to be the man who posted
A thousand pages of bullshit through your door

That’s very good!!!

[TheFamilyCat]

It's good that we can still have a laugh

[Lowbankclaret]

It's good that we can still have a laugh

Very true.

Shame there’s an odd person who get abusive.

[Spijed]

Excellent, Boris has said no to a leave deal.

Need to get my arse in gear and deliver these 500 leaflets for Stewart.

One thing that is apparent is that both Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn are far better speakers than Boris Johnson.

[Lowbankclaret]

One thing that is apparent is that both Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn are far better speakers than Boris Johnson.

Interesting opinion.

Every time I hear Corbyn speak it’s like I get road rage.

I just don’t understand how any sane intelligent person can come to the conclusion he would be good for this country.

[Damo]

One thing that is apparent is that both Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn are far better speakers than Boris Johnson.

Well at least when Corbyn turns the country into a massive, turnip plantation, we can console ourselves that he has a lovely speaking voice.
What does he sing like? Anyone know? Could be a vote winner for me

[Lowbankclaret]

He stands there and says he is going to negotiate staying in the customs union and the single market. My ferrets could do that deaL!

Then he says he wants to nationalise energy, water etc.

He has not read the rules.

THE EU WILL NOT LET YOU.

You need to be out to do that.

[Spijed]

Interesting opinion.

Every time I hear Corbyn speak it’s like I get road rage.

I just don’t understand how any sane intelligent person can come to the conclusion he would be good for this country.

But how can you ever trust someone who was in the Bullingdon club?

[Lowbankclaret]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11981 ... bbit-video" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lowbankclaret]

On a subject away from Brexit, my better half has just cooked up a pizza and cheese and garlic pizza.

All home made including the base, due to allergies.

A7924596-6CF6-41D0-A575-06FD902DB90A.jpeg (1.42 MiB) Viewed 1236 times

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

On a subject away from Brexit, my better half has just cooked up a pizza and cheese and garlic pizza.

All home made including the base, due to allergies.

A7924596-6CF6-41D0-A575-06FD902DB90A.jpeg

I was hoping you’d order a takeaway and make up another story of how the delivery driver voted leave.

[Granny WeatherWax]

On a subject away from Brexit, my better half has just cooked up a pizza and cheese and garlic pizza.

All home made including the base, due to allergies.

A7924596-6CF6-41D0-A575-06FD902DB90A.jpeg

What’s she having?

[TheFamilyCat]

On a subject away from Brexit, my better half has just cooked up a pizza and cheese and garlic pizza.

All home made including the base, due to allergies.

A7924596-6CF6-41D0-A575-06FD902DB90A.jpeg

This board needs more "what are you having for tea threads" instead of all the political bickering.

I had home made fish pie, btw. Sorry, had it two hours ago and didn't think to take a photo.

[Lowbankclaret]

I was hoping you’d order a takeaway and make up another story of how the delivery driver voted leave.

I find it so amusing people think I make these things up.

My mind is not that creative.

Wish it was.

Anyway anyone wants Chinese where you get enough for an army go to Home in Lowerhouse. Positions are stupid big.

[AlargeClaret]

Don’t we have record employment ? Low inflation for years n years ? 5th biggest economy in the world ( Brexit worries did very very little damage) .and a higher standard of living than ever before ? The economy is generally strong .we can all moan about a population based strain on the nhs and education but hasn’t it always been thus?

“Austerity” ??? If only people knew real hardship ,seems the only ones who bleat about it are diehard left wingers ( fair enough) and the state dependant “ life long sick notes” underclass who leech and steal off the same hand that feeds then .

[Jakubclaret]

This board needs more "what are you having for tea threads" instead of all the political bickering.

I had home made fish pie, btw. Sorry, had it two hours ago and didn't think to take a photo.

Stop being so boring it looks a nice pizza & he's proud of his other half making the effort for the tea/supper.

[TheFamilyCat]

Stop being so boring it looks a nice pizza & he's proud of his other half making the effort for the tea/supper.

Boring?

[Jakubclaret]

Boring?

Finding fault & coming out with a sarcastic comment.

[Lowbankclaret]

This board needs more "what are you having for tea threads" instead of all the political bickering.

I had home made fish pie, btw. Sorry, had it two hours ago and didn't think to take a photo.

To be fair she is an amazing cook.

Her mansala curry is not for a faint hearted.

One lad at work who thought the smell warranted a taste, one spoonful took four hours to recover from.

I like me curries hot.

[Imploding Turtle]

2015 elecon result

Julie Cooper Lab 14,951 37.6 6.3

3Gordon Birtwistle LD 11,707 29.5 -6.2


2Tom Commis UKIP 6,864 17.3 15.0


0Sarah Cockburn-Price Con 5,374 13.5 -3.1

1Mike Hargreaves * Green 850 2.1 2.1


If that’s not in the top 50 then I think the BP can do better than I thought.

No. Burnley isn't in the top 50 marginal Labour seats.

And there's been an election since 2017.

[TheFamilyCat]

Finding fault & coming out with a sarcastic comment.

Where was I finding fault? What was the sarcastic comment?

Your judgement is of course questionable though, after defending Hitler.

[AndrewJB]

I accept some of what you say, the rail network certainly doesnt affect me. The difference is the NHS was never designed to make a profit, it's a service regardless of the ability to pay. The rail network should be capable of providing a service yet not lose money. I couldn't care less if it doesnt make profit for its shareholders, but it shouldnt be a burden on the country. The people using it are more often than not, using it for work, to make money for themselves. Finding a balance between a good service and an affordable wage shouldnt be that difficult, and if it is then pass it on to the employers.
The difficulty with those in need is breaking it down into categories. There are so many problems that push people to that point. Many of them I have great sympathy with, but others I think they just need to sort themselves out and give themselves a shake. Where do you draw the line is, I suppose on the individual, but it irks me when I see people claiming poverty drawing on the state, when it's their own lack of discipline or self esteem that's put them there. And it's not because it draws on my taxes, but because it detracts from people with genuine needs.
I'm sure to many on here that sounds callous, but it isnt the way I feel inside. I'm sure somebody will want examples and breakdown what I think is right and wrong, but I'm not going to bother. It would take all night, it would get pedantic, and upset the snowflakes.
As is normal I judge things on what I see in my own town, and here in sunny Colburn the poor unemployed are mostly overweight women, covered with tattoos, smoking, drinking, driving cars taking holidays, lots of kids and everything is free. It does distract from the obvious genuine cases that do exist, and it may well be a million miles from Burnley in terms of society, call it what you will, but I think it should frustrate anyone.

The model of "free at point of use" - gives the NHS an efficiency that the American model (for example) doesn't have. The US spends about twice as much on healthcare per capita than we do, and there are still about sixty or seventy million people who aren't covered by health insurance. In Luxembourg they're moving to a free at point of use train system, because paying for it all through taxes, and taking out the need to pay to use increases use (which will reduce car use), and makes it all far more efficient. It works the same for a benefits system. What you seem to be arguing for existed during Victorian times. Those who were poor were divided into the "deserving" and "underserving" of relief. The reason this was scrapped and we moved onto a less judgemental way of doling out relief is because it doesn't work (it's very subjective), and it's expensive to administer. In this I'd say a better alternative to having an out of work benefits system, would be to introduce a minimum income - paid to everyone regardless of need. Such a system would require few people to administer (such as child allowance), and could make huge dents in poverty. There would still be benefits in place for people with disabilities (though making the country more disability-friendly would also work), but though this you could cut the welfare budget that is spent on enforcement down a lot.

You'll never find a way of fairly drawing a line between those who are actually poor, and those claiming to be and feeding off the system. There will always be a few who can cheat the system - whether that be the welfare system, or tax system. If the rules are too tight you risk people in genuine need falling foul, and the system itself becomes too expensive. Far better in my opinion to replace it with a minimum income, which would be harder to cheat.

[Imploding Turtle]

Has it, really has it, ...

yes.

Trickle-down economics is a scam.

[Lowbankclaret]

No. Burnley isn't in the top 50 marginal Labour seats.

And there's been an election since 2017.

He was the one quoted 2015.

Seriously

[AndrewJB]

I was hoping you’d order a takeaway and make up another story of how the delivery driver voted leave.

I thought it might lead on to how he discovered his wife voted for brexit, and with one arm he cleared the pizzas from the counter, and they did on there what married people sometimes do.

[Imploding Turtle]

He was the one quoted 2015.

Seriously

I don't know what you're trying to say but Burnley isn't one of Labours top 50 most marginal seats, which are the seats Custice was talking about that BXP have a chance in. The Conservative might have had a slight chance if there was neither a BXP or UKIP candidate running, but neither BXP or the Tories have any chance if more than one of Tory, UKIP, BXP is running.

Burnley's a pipe dream for your party. If i were you i'd save your time and go canvass in an area where your extremist party has a shot.

[Greenmile]

I thought it might lead on to how he discovered his wife voted for brexit, and with one arm he cleared the pizzas from the counter, and they did on there what married people sometimes do.

Argued about how messy the kitchen is?

[Bfcboyo]

What will this general election actually achieve?
Genuine question , it just seems pointless will any side win enough clout to move Brexit one way or another.

[Lowbankclaret]

I don't know what you're trying to say but Burnley isn't one of Labours top 50 most marginal seats, which are the seats Custice was talking about that BXP have a chance in. The Conservative might have had a slight chance if there was neither a BXP or UKIP candidate running, but neither BXP or the Tories have any chance if more than one of Tory, UKIP, BXP is running.

Burnley's a pipe dream for your party. If i were you i'd save your time and go canvass in an area where your extremist party has a shot.

Your in for a shock!!!

[Clarets4me]

I don't know what you're trying to say but Burnley isn't one of Labours top 50 most marginal seats, which are the seats Custice was talking about that BXP have a chance in. The Conservative might have had a slight chance if there was neither a BXP or UKIP candidate running, but neither BXP or the Tories have any chance if more than one of Tory, UKIP, BXP is running.

Burnley's a pipe dream for your party. If i were you i'd save your time and go canvass in an area where your extremist party has a shot.

I agree with your political analysis on the Burnley seat, I can't see the Labour vote share going below the historical low of 31.3% of 2010 ....

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

I thought it might lead on to how he discovered his wife voted for brexit, and with one arm he cleared the pizzas from the counter, and they did on there what married people sometimes do.

Could be a bestselling novel in this!

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

Your in for a shock!!!

Hmmmm.

If the brexit party stands candidates in all seats then it could be disastrous for the tories and the brexit party and may conceivably lead to a Labour majority.

Another bizarre move by the leave camp but Fartage seems pretty adamant that Johnson's deal isn't brexit so battle appears to be joined.

[Claret-On-A-T-Rex]

Had a strange encounter this evening.

Being in town longer than we thought , called a Local Chinese for tea who are on just eat.

Guy taking the order starts talking about leaving the EU, ex navy.

Delivery driver is an Asian guy in Asian dress.

Joins in the conversation and tells us he voted leave.

Will not vote in this election because they have not done what we voted for.

Gobsmacked I was.

I went to Edinburgh Uni and earlier this year one of my Scottish mates was holidaying close to where I live in Spain and he popped over for the day and we went out for lunch.

I was similarly gobsmacked to find he had voted against Scottish Independence and to Leave the EU.

[bfcjg]

I think after the election there will still be a parliament that thwarts leaving the EU without a customs union at least. I think there will be another referendum and the sick of it voters will eventually vote to stay in. If by staying in the EU is eventually decentralised and becomes just a trading block of independent countries then this is what we signed up for and would be the best outcome.

[Lord Rothbury]

I agree with your political analysis on the Burnley seat, I can't see the Labour vote share going below the historical low of 31.3% of 2010 ....

If you look at last May,s local council elections,where Labour took something of a beating,then Labour could drop well below 31%.
Charlie Briggs will take a decent amount of dissatisfied Labour voters especially in Gannow,Lowerhouse &Rosegrove and Padiham where he is well liked and respected. Maybe not enough to win but certainly enough to be a deciding factor on who does.

[randomclaret2]

"If by staying in the EU is eventually decentralised and becomes just a trading block of independent countries then this is what we signed up for and would be the best outcome."
I very much doubt that were we to stay in this is the path the EU would choose. Quite the opposite in fact

[Imploding Turtle]

Your in for a shock!!!

No, you're.

Look. Here are some facts for you.

The Tories, based on latest polling, are holding onto 73% of those who voted for them in 2017. Let's pretend the entire 27% who aren't intending to vote Tory this time end up voting BXP (it won't happen, but i'm being generous)

27% of the 2017 Tory vote = 3,369

66.6% of Burnley voted leave. This is 28.35% higher than the national average of 51.89%
A British Election Study of 2,194 voters from the 2017 election showed that an estimated 30% of Labour voters in 2017 voted Leave.
So, simply weighing the 2017 Labour vote by 1.2835 (accounting for Burnley's 28.35% increased Leave) shows that around 38.5% of Labour voters in Burnley's 2017 election voted Leave. This isn't perfectly scientific, but it's good enough to make my point.

38.5% of 2017 Labour voters in Burnley is 7,250 votes. Let's give you ALL of those.

And lets give you guys 100% of UKIP's 2017 votes as well, because why not? That's an extra 2,472 votes.

This only gets you to 13,091 votes. And remember, i've been insanely generous in the percentage of voters i've given you from other parties. BXP will not get 100% of the 2017 Tory voters intending to vote differently (a lot will go to lib dems). BXP will definitely not be getting anything close to 100% of Labour-Leave voters . And they won't be getting 100% of UKIP voters (although they might get pretty close on this one but it's also a tiny vote share).


TL;DR: Unless the Tories pull their candidacy, BXP don't stand a realistic chance in Burnley. A lot of those Tory voters from 2017 are going to vote Lib Dem this time. (9 of the 27% intend to vote Lib Dem while 14 intends to vote BXP nationally). The same voting intention survey shows that only 7% of Labour 2017 voters intend to vote BXP nationally.

If you think i'm in for a shock and that BXP are going to pick up Burnley, your dreaming.

[If it be your will]

He stands there and says he is going to negotiate staying in the customs union and the single market. My ferrets could do that deaL!

Then he says he wants to nationalise energy, water etc.

He has not read the rules.

THE EU WILL NOT LET YOU.

You need to be out to do that.

(As it happens, you can have a state-owned monopoly in water under EU rules, but I take your point.)

I don't know how significant this will be electorally, but for me this will be the most fascinating aspect of this election. If I was a Tory strategist I'd be thinking very carefully about this, because it has the potential to damage Labour on 2 fronts.

If Corbyn puts out a manifesto that is incompatible with EU membership (like 2017) whilst maintaining a remain stance, this is how I'd attack it: I'd go after the Labour/leave vote with the message "If you really do want these things, you'll have to vote for us to take us out of the EU first. Have a look at Article 107 of the Lisbon Treaty (/4th Railway Package/3rd Energy Package/Public Procurement Rules/whatever else fits) if you don't believe me."

And I'd simultaneously try to push the Labour/remain vote towards the Lib Dems by delivering a message of "Look! Corbyn is a secret Lexiter! He must be planning to yank us out of the EU!"

Obviously, the 2 messages are logically contradictory, but with targeted internet ads each group need only receive the intended message. It is possible to deliver 2 mutually incompatible messages and succeed with both.

[If it be your will]

The model of "free at point of use" - gives the NHS an efficiency that the American model (for example) doesn't have. The US spends about twice as much on healthcare per capita than we do, and there are still about sixty or seventy million people who aren't covered by health insurance. In Luxembourg they're moving to a free at point of use train system, because paying for it all through taxes, and taking out the need to pay to use increases use (which will reduce car use), and makes it all far more efficient. It works the same for a benefits system. What you seem to be arguing for existed during Victorian times. Those who were poor were divided into the "deserving" and "underserving" of relief. The reason this was scrapped and we moved onto a less judgemental way of doling out relief is because it doesn't work (it's very subjective), and it's expensive to administer. In this I'd say a better alternative to having an out of work benefits system, would be to introduce a minimum income - paid to everyone regardless of need. Such a system would require few people to administer (such as child allowance), and could make huge dents in poverty. There would still be benefits in place for people with disabilities (though making the country more disability-friendly would also work), but though this you could cut the welfare budget that is spent on enforcement down a lot.

You'll never find a way of fairly drawing a line between those who are actually poor, and those claiming to be and feeding off the system. There will always be a few who can cheat the system - whether that be the welfare system, or tax system. If the rules are too tight you risk people in genuine need falling foul, and the system itself becomes too expensive. Far better in my opinion to replace it with a minimum income, which would be harder to cheat.

I remember now, we used to be on the same side, didn't we? Them wert days, ey?

[AndrewJB]

I remember now, we used to be on the same side, didn't we? Them wert days, ey?

Remind me how my principles have changed to make it so.

[thatdberight]

66.6% of Burnley voted leave. This is 28.35% higher than the national average of 51.89%
A British Election Study of 2,194 voters from the 2017 election showed that an estimated 30% of Labour voters in 2017 voted Leave.
So, simply weighing the 2017 Labour vote by 1.2835 (accounting for Burnley's 28.35% increased Leave) shows that around 38.5% of Labour voters in Burnley's 2017 election voted Leave. This isn't perfectly scientific, but it's good enough to make my point.

Ewer (sic) extrapolation of the Labour vote is so innumerate it's actually funny. That's before we even get to why reliance on the figures you've taken is misplaced. As always, you're a laugh.