General Election Is On

[thatdberight]

Three guests check into a hotel room. The manager says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the manager realizes the bill should only have been $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 as five one-dollar bills to return to the guests.

On the way to the guests' room to refund the money, the bellhop realizes that he cannot equally divide the five one-dollar bills among the three guests. As the guests aren't aware of the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 back and keep $2 as a tip for himself, and proceeds to do so.

As each guest got $1 back, each guest only paid $9, bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop kept $2, which when added to the $27, comes to $29. So if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?

[If it be your will]

Remind me how my principles have changed to make it so.

Well, if we're going to be terse about it! You didn't bother to look up the EU rules before deciding you wanted to remain. Then when I showed you the rules - the ones that forbid almost everything you actually want - you refused to accept them and stuck doggedly to remain anyway.

(Jees. Thought I was being friendly.)

[dsr]

66.6% of Burnley voted leave. This is 28.35% higher than the national average of 51.89%
A British Election Study of 2,194 voters from the 2017 election showed that an estimated 30% of Labour voters in 2017 voted Leave.
So, simply weighing the 2017 Labour vote by 1.2835 (accounting for Burnley's 28.35% increased Leave) shows that around 38.5% of Labour voters in Burnley's 2017 election voted Leave. This isn't perfectly scientific, but it's good enough to make my point.

Labour and Liberal combined had 26,658 votes in the 2015 general election. Remain had 14,462 votes in the referendum. So if you contend every single one of the 5,374 Tories, the 6,864 UKIPpers, the 850 Greens, and the 3,571 new voters all went for Leave, you still have a combined 46% Labour/Liberal voting Leave. And if you allow that perhaps 1,500 Tory+Green voters and 1,200 of the new voters voted Remain, then your Labour/Liberal Leave faction goes to 56%. Either way, if Labour is at 38.5% leave, the Liberals come out very strongly for Remain - you have the Liberals much more in favour of Leave than the Labour party. About 78% Remain in the more realistic scenario. Seems unlikely?

[If it be your will]

Three guests check into a hotel room. The manager says the bill is $30, so each guest pays $10. Later the manager realizes the bill should only have been $25. To rectify this, he gives the bellhop $5 as five one-dollar bills to return to the guests.

On the way to the guests' room to refund the money, the bellhop realizes that he cannot equally divide the five one-dollar bills among the three guests. As the guests aren't aware of the total of the revised bill, the bellhop decides to just give each guest $1 back and keep $2 as a tip for himself, and proceeds to do so.

As each guest got $1 back, each guest only paid $9, bringing the total paid to $27. The bellhop kept $2, which when added to the $27, comes to $29. So if the guests originally handed over $30, what happened to the remaining $1?

The bill was $25. The guests paid $27 - the $25 bill plus the $2 tip.

[dsr]

The bill was $25. The guests paid $27 - the $25 bill plus the $2 tip.

Exactly. Or put another way, of the $30 the guests handed over, $25 went to the hotel, $3 was given back to the guests, and $2 was kept by the bellhop.

[thatdberight]

Exactly. Or put another way, of the $30 the guests handed over, $25 went to the hotel, $3 was given back to the guests, and $2 was kept by the bellhop.

I didn't think too many would fall for such a simple old misdirection. Reassuring.

[If it be your will]

Exactly. Or put another way, of the $30 the guests handed over, $25 went to the hotel, $3 was given back to the guests, and $2 was kept by the bellhop.

Hm. Yes. Your answer is even clearer, I think.

[dsr]

I didn't think too many would fall for such a simple old misdirection. Reassuring.

I might have done if I hadn't heard the question many times before. You'd think inflation would have added an extra nought to the room price by now!

[HunterST_BFC]

Scumbag liars
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50270727

[Imploding Turtle]

Labour and Liberal combined had 26,658 votes in the 2015 general election. Remain had 14,462 votes in the referendum. So if you contend every single one of the 5,374 Tories, the 6,864 UKIPpers, the 850 Greens, and the 3,571 new voters all went for Leave, you still have a combined 46% Labour/Liberal voting Leave. And if you allow that perhaps 1,500 Tory+Green voters and 1,200 of the new voters voted Remain, then your Labour/Liberal Leave faction goes to 56%. Either way, if Labour is at 38.5% leave, the Liberals come out very strongly for Remain - you have the Liberals much more in favour of Leave than the Labour party. About 78% Remain in the more realistic scenario. Seems unlikely?

This isn't credible analysis for a number of reasons, but most of all because we've had an election since 2015 already, and polling information giving the most accurate current estimate of the public's voting intention is based on current polls which ask the poll takers how they voted in 2017, not 2015.

You're using worse information, when you don't have to, to reach a conclusion that doesn't fit with the better, more recent and more complete information.

I can't work out what data-driven justification you're using for any of your figures here. Why are you assuming all Tory and green voters from 2015 voted Leave? What data-driven justification do you have to show 1,500 "Tory+Green voters and 1,200 "new" voters voted Remain, and why? You haven't even mentioned the Brexit Party, which was the central purpose of my point - finding out, based on current polling and best data, where their voters will come from and what, i don't know how you've come up with some of your figures because they seem to be entirely imagined, and you've taken my estimated figure of 38.5% leave voters in 2017 voting Labour and applying that to the 2015 election for which you've provided no rationale to suggest that the same figure is accurate.

I appreciate the time you took to post what you posted, but i'm not sure how any of it has any weight. I'm also unsure why you removed the rest of my post before quoting it.

[Imploding Turtle]

Ewer (sic) extrapolation of the Labour vote is so innumerate it's actually funny. That's before we even get to why reliance on the figures you've taken is misplaced. As always, you're a laugh.

By all means explain what i've done wrong, in your view.

Edit: numbers look perfectly fine to me

66.6 is indeed 128.35% of 51.89
7,250 is indeed 38.5% of 18,832

I guess you're just trolling. But i'm open to hearing an actual intelligent critique, if you're capable of offering one.

[Imploding Turtle]

Just wanna get this posted before it happens. Boris, in his infinite wisdom, has agreed to a one-on-one debate with Corbyn on the 19th November.
This is a really bad idea for Boris, i believe.

So what date do you guys think Boris will pull out of the debate? Winner(s) gets a thread named after them.

I'm going to go for the 16th November.

[thatdberight]

By all means explain what i've done wrong, in your view.

Edit: numbers look perfectly fine to me

66.6 is indeed 128.35% of 51.89
7,250 is indeed 38.5% of 18,832

I guess you're just trolling. But i'm open to hearing an actual intelligent critique, if you're capable of offering one.

"Troll : a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses and normalizing tangential discussion, whether for the troll's amusement or a specific gain."

No. I don't think my post fits this. My post was not digressive, extraneous or off-topic and, to be honest, your language is so emotional much of the time that I don't think a spur is required.

It is, though, more amusing to leave your Abbott-esque use of numbers uncorrected than to tell you specifically why it's wrong.

[Lowbankclaret]

I will predict now that Julie Cooper will poll less than 13,000 votes this time.

[Imploding Turtle]

"Troll : a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses and normalizing tangential discussion, whether for the troll's amusement or a specific gain."

No. I don't think my post fits this. My post was not digressive, extraneous or off-topic and, to be honest, your language is so emotional much of the time that I don't think a spur is required.

It is, though, more amusing to leave your Abbott-esque use of numbers uncorrected than to tell you specifically why it's wrong.

No, you're literally trolling. I've gone over my numbers twice now and they're fine, as you know. You're pretending they're not to try and disrupt the conversation, which is what trolls do.

[thatdberight]

No, you're literally trolling. I've gone over my numbers twice now and they're fine, as you know. You're pretending they're not to try and disrupt the conversation, which is what trolls do.

You can definitely use a calculator. That's true.

I'm not pretending anything. If you've gone through it again and can't see the flaw, that's fine. Not everyone can use numerical data. You'll get away with it most of the time and I'm not your target audience.

[Jakubclaret]

No, you're literally trolling. I've gone over my numbers twice now and they're fine, as you know. You're pretending they're not to try and disrupt the conversation, which is what trolls do.

You seem very au fait in that particular department to be fair, on this rare occasion you have a point.

[If it be your will]

No, you're.

Look. Here are some facts for you.

The Tories, based on latest polling, are holding onto 73% of those who voted for them in 2017. Let's pretend the entire 27% who aren't intending to vote Tory this time end up voting BXP (it won't happen, but i'm being generous)

27% of the 2017 Tory vote = 3,369

66.6% of Burnley voted leave. This is 28.35% higher than the national average of 51.89%
A British Election Study of 2,194 voters from the 2017 election showed that an estimated 30% of Labour voters in 2017 voted Leave.
So, simply weighing the 2017 Labour vote by 1.2835 (accounting for Burnley's 28.35% increased Leave) shows that around 38.5% of Labour voters in Burnley's 2017 election voted Leave. This isn't perfectly scientific, but it's good enough to make my point.

38.5% of 2017 Labour voters in Burnley is 7,250 votes. Let's give you ALL of those.

And lets give you guys 100% of UKIP's 2017 votes as well, because why not? That's an extra 2,472 votes.

This only gets you to 13,091 votes. And remember, i've been insanely generous in the percentage of voters i've given you from other parties. BXP will not get 100% of the 2017 Tory voters intending to vote differently (a lot will go to lib dems). BXP will definitely not be getting anything close to 100% of Labour-Leave voters . And they won't be getting 100% of UKIP voters (although they might get pretty close on this one but it's also a tiny vote share).


TL;DR: Unless the Tories pull their candidacy, BXP don't stand a realistic chance in Burnley. A lot of those Tory voters from 2017 are going to vote Lib Dem this time. (9 of the 27% intend to vote Lib Dem while 14 intends to vote BXP nationally). The same voting intention survey shows that only 7% of Labour 2017 voters intend to vote BXP nationally.

If you think i'm in for a shock and that BXP are going to pick up Burnley, your dreaming.

If 61.5% of the 2017 Burnley Labour vote voted remain (I appreciate you haven't strictly said this), that accounts for 11,582 remain votes straight away. But there were only 14,432 remain votes in Burnley in the referendum in the first place - on a bigger turnout.

My own calculation suggests that if any party gets over 50% of the leave vote (28,854), even if they don't get a single remain vote, they will probably win in Burnley. The Brexit Party won't get over half the leave vote, but it's not inconceivable that the Tories will.

[AndrewJB]

Well, if we're going to be terse about it! You didn't bother to look up the EU rules before deciding you wanted to remain. Then when I showed you the rules - the ones that forbid almost everything you actually want - you refused to accept them and stuck doggedly to remain anyway.

(Jees. Thought I was being friendly.)

I wasn't trying to be unkind or rude, so I apologise for coming across that way. I respect your opinions, and likely hold very similar values. If I haven't before then I'll thank you now for putting me straight on the rules of how the EU works - though we have a difference of opinion on (in my view of it) the practicalities of implementing the 2017 Manifesto. The EU doesn't forbid nationalisation, and I think a reasonably intelligent civil service could drive a horse and coach through the regulations stipulating competition in certain areas. Other EU countries enjoy far more social democracy than we do under the same rules. In short I don't share your opinion that the EU stands as a barrier to a fairer society, and as I've said before I see the EU as a bulwark of democracy (the reasons for which you have to be one to be in it). Those are (I think) where our opinions diverge.

[thatdberight]

My own calculation suggests that if any party gets over 50% of the leave vote (28,854), even if they don't get a single remain vote, they will probably win in Burnley. The Brexit Party won't get over half the leave vote, but it's not inconceivable that the Tories will.

That's not a bad summary at all. But that 50% of the Leave voters will be not be an easy hurdle for the Conservative Party to get over as it requires both getting the vote out and overturning long-held party loyalties. At least they have lots to aim at as it's almost inconceivable that a large majority of Labour voters didn't vote 'Leave'.

The Brexit Party? No. Partially based on stats but also behaviourally; it's just very difficult for any smaller party - even if their single issue is the most pressing topic of the election.

[Lowbankclaret]

Student s eh.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ystem.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Lowbankclaret]

That's not a bad summary at all. But that 50% of the Leave voters will be not be an easy hurdle for the Conservative Party to get over as it requires both getting the vote out and overturning long-held party loyalties. At least they have lots to aim at as it's almost inconceivable that a large majority of Labour voters didn't vote 'Leave'.

The Brexit Party? No. Partially based on stats but also behaviourally; it's just very difficult for any smaller party - even if their single issue is the most pressing topic of the election.

And what about the 50% of Labour voters that cannot vote Labour with Corbyn as leader.

[thatdberight]

And what about the 50% of Labour voters that cannot vote Labour with Corbyn as leader.

Well, if that were true, and since he got 40% of the vote last time, that means 80% of the electorate are Labour voters?

No. Unless this is a game of bad stats one-upmanship where bad extrapolation is trumped by made up numbers. In which case you win.

[Lowbankclaret]

Well, if that were true, and since he got 40% of the vote last time, that means 80% of the electorate are Labour voters?

No. Unless this is a game of bad stats one-upmanship where bad extrapolation is trumped by made up numbers. In which case you win.

There are large amounts of people who will not vote Labour whilst Corbyn is in charge.


They have seen through him now. Unless it changes as the next 6 weeks go on. Labour will be shocked at how their vote collapses.

[Imploding Turtle]

If 61.5% of the 2017 Burnley Labour vote voted remain (I appreciate you haven't strictly said this), that accounts for 11,582 remain votes straight away. But there were only 14,432 remain votes in Burnley in the referendum in the first place - on a bigger turnout.

My own calculation suggests that if any party gets over 50% of the leave vote (28,854), even if they don't get a single remain vote, they will probably win in Burnley. The Brexit Party won't get over half the leave vote, but it's not inconceivable that the Tories will.

Not all Conservative or Lib Dem and Green voters will have voted Remain.

If BXP run a candidate against the Tories then neither will get above half of the Leave vote. But they might not need that many to win.

That said, my post wasn't about where leave and remain voters will go, it was about where the Brexit Party are going to get their votes, and demonstrating that based on current polling, even if they got 100% of Tory, Labour and UKIP defections then they'd still only get about 13k votes, and they're never getting 100% of those defections. According to national polling BXP's 12% is coming from 14% of the Tory 2017 vote, 7% of the Labour vote, 4% of the Lib Dem vote, 64% of the UKIP vote, 3% of the Greens vote and 10% from Others. Unless something radically changes they're not coming anywhere close to winning in Burnley. They might get 3rd place, but probably not.

[AndyClaret]

That told 'em Nigel.....

[If it be your will]

That's not a bad summary at all. But that 50% of the Leave voters will be not be an easy hurdle for the Conservative Party to get over as it requires both getting the vote out and overturning long-held party loyalties. At least they have lots to aim at as it's almost inconceivable that a large majority of Labour voters didn't vote 'Leave'.

The Brexit Party? No. Partially based on stats but also behaviourally; it's just very difficult for any smaller party - even if their single issue is the most pressing topic of the election.

This might not reflect reality, and even if it does, it might not reflect Burnley https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 5710339072" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But if it does, the Tories will absolutely walk it in Burnley. With c29,000 leave voters, 58% of them would probably be enough to win without a single remain vote. Indeed, if 58% of leavers really are going to vote Tory, they'll probably win nearly all the seats where the leave vote was >60%. That's a lot of Labour seats https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_o ... cy_results" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Unless something dramatic happens, 12th December could be an absolute horror show for Labour.

(I can't see the Brexit Party winning any seats if YouGov are right.)

[Lowbankclaret]

This might not reflect reality, and even if it does, it might not reflect Burnley https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 5710339072" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But if it does, the Tories will absolutely walk it in Burnley. With c29,000 leave voters, 58% of them would probably be enough to win without a single remain vote. Indeed, if 58% of leavers really are going to vote Tory, they'll probably win nearly all the seats where the leave vote was >60%. That's a lot of Labour seats https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_o ... cy_results" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Unless something dramatic happens, 12th December could be an absolute horror show for Labour.

(I can't see the Brexit Party winning any seats if YouGov are right.)

Keep trying to tell people, they are out of touch with many Labour voters on Brexit and Corbyn.

[thatdberight]

This might not reflect reality, and even if it does, it might not reflect Burnley https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 5710339072" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But if it does, the Tories will absolutely walk it in Burnley. With c29,000 leave voters, 58% of them would probably be enough to win without a single remain vote. Indeed, if 58% of leavers really are going to vote Tory, they'll probably win nearly all the seats where the leave vote was >60%. That's a lot of Labour seats https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_o ... cy_results" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(I can't see the Brexit Party winning any seats if YouGov are right.)

Your caveat is an important part of that post. It almost certainly can't represent Burnley particularly well. To me it reinforces that it's doable for the Conservatives but every constituency has its own facets and the deeply-ingrained multi-generational support for Labour and the fact that Burnley voters have, in some elections, been among those most likely to skip from Labour to more radical parties are among the ones in play here.

[AndrewJB]

There are large amounts of people who will not vote Labour whilst Corbyn is in charge.


They have seen through him now. Unless it changes as the next 6 weeks go on. Labour will be shocked at how their vote collapses.

As it’s been shown already, forty percent of voters picked Labour the last time. Corbyn had at the time very low approval ratings, as he does now, and all the smear stories had already been released. In their study of press coverage of Corbyn, LSE’s researchers found that only 11% of news stories about him actually quoted his own words (in the Mail and Express that was 0%). In an election the media has to work under firmer rules, and this is why his ratings improved last time. As well, don’t underestimate younger voters, who are registering at ten times the rate they normally do.

I know many people believe Johnson will be a better campaigner than May was, but his campaign has hardly sparkled so far: https://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.com/ ... r.html?m=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[thatdberight]

https://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.com/ ... r.html?m=1

So Corbyn supporter cites Corbyn supporter who's supporting Corbyn as evidence Johnson is doing badly.

It remains to be seen whether Corbyn has re-established trust with many who voted for him last time and assumed he saw the Europe issue like them but found he didn't. They may be attracted to his other policies but given the very clear position of the Lib Dems as opposed to Corbyn's "vote me in and I'll sort it" pitch, will they pick LibDem this time to try and clear Brexit off the table and leave his other policies for a next time?

[Lowbankclaret]

As it’s been shown already, forty percent of voters picked Labour the last time. Corbyn had at the time very low approval ratings, as he does now, and all the smear stories had already been released. In their study of press coverage of Corbyn, LSE’s researchers found that only 11% of news stories about him actually quoted his own words (in the Mail and Express that was 0%). In an election the media has to work under firmer rules, and this is why his ratings improved last time. As well, don’t underestimate younger voters, who are registering at ten times the rate they normally do.

I know many people believe Johnson will be a better campaigner than May was, but his campaign has hardly sparkled so far: https://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.com/ ... r.html?m=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The young people can out vote us if they wish, that is democracy.

They will spend the majority of their adult life then wishing they had listened to the old farts.

[Devils_Advocate]

The young people can out vote us if they wish, that is democracy.

They will spend the majority of their adult life then wishing they had listened to the old farts.

Yep all those young wannabe yuppie Tory's who voted Thatcher in throughout the 80's have a lot to answer for

[Lowbankclaret]

Yep all those young wannabe yuppie Tory's who voted Thatcher in throughout the 80's have a lot to answer for

Well to be fair.

Commy Britain wasn’t a great place.

Inefficient Union dominated work places striking at the drop of a hat. I know I worked in one.

Blackouts in the winter with no electric.

[AndrewJB]

So Corbyn supporter cites Corbyn supporter who's supporting Corbyn as evidence Johnson is doing badly.

It remains to be seen whether Corbyn has re-established trust with many who voted for him last time and assumed he saw the Europe issue like them but found he didn't. They may be attracted to his other policies but given the very clear position of the Lib Dems as opposed to Corbyn's "vote me in and I'll sort it" pitch, will they pick LibDem this time to try and clear Brexit off the table and leave his other policies for a next time?

Sites like Another Angry Voice and Zelo Street are partisan (though with AAV, he's only been that way since Corbyn became leader), but they're not full of outright lies like Guido.

I think this election will be about more than just brexit, as there won't be much to say on that subject, because all the parties have clear and different policies on it anyway (negotiate a deal with the EU that includes a customs union, and then put it back to the people in a second referendum isn't that hard to understand).

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Well to be fair.

Commy Britain wasn’t a great place.

Inefficient Union dominated work places striking at the drop of a hat. I know I worked in one.

Blackouts in the winter with no electric.

Just rang a takeaway. No mention of voting is there a key word I need to use as I’m going to ring him back in a minute?

[AndrewJB]

The young people can out vote us if they wish, that is democracy.

They will spend the majority of their adult life then wishing they had listened to the old farts.

For a long time younger people were sort of sneered at because of their political apathy, so we should be heartened that they're taking an interest. One of the biggest drivers in getting them involved is the climate, so the parties that can show a commitment to making us carbon neutral quicker will benefit most.

[thatdberight]

I think this election will be about more than just brexit...

I think the campaign will be and that brings risks and opportunities for all parties. But it will remain, unless something very unexpected happens, the defining choice to be made.

[Greenmile]

Well to be fair.

Commy Britain wasn’t a great place.

Inefficient Union dominated work places striking at the drop of a hat. I know I worked in one.

Blackouts in the winter with no electric.

WTF is /was “commy Britain”?

[TheFamilyCat]

I think this election will be about more than just brexit

I disagree. Boris is already repeating his "get brexit done" line with Ringo-like repetition. Corbyn has to convince his leave vote that he will leave. Swinson is pushing her remain stance. Farage, however significant he may or may not be, has nothing else to offer.

Just to add, I don't think a GE should be dominated by one single issue but I believe it is unavoidable.

[Lowbankclaret]

WTF is /was “commy Britain”?

Perhaps you did not live in it.

The union controlled what I did and when.

When I made too many components an hour, the union threatened to have me done over if I went into town on a night out.

When that didn’t work they threatened to to branch me and remove my union card which would mean I would be sacked. As it was a closed shop.

Feel free to go back to that.

[Spijed]

This might not reflect reality, and even if it does, it might not reflect Burnley https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 5710339072" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

But if it does, the Tories will absolutely walk it in Burnley. With c29,000 leave voters, 58% of them would probably be enough to win without a single remain vote. Indeed, if 58% of leavers really are going to vote Tory, they'll probably win nearly all the seats where the leave vote was >60%. That's a lot of Labour seats https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_o ... cy_results" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Unless something dramatic happens, 12th December could be an absolute horror show for Labour.

(I can't see the Brexit Party winning any seats if YouGov are right.)

http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/13275/burnley" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[dsr]

This isn't credible analysis for a number of reasons, but most of all because we've had an election since 2015 already, and polling information giving the most accurate current estimate of the public's voting intention is based on current polls which ask the poll takers how they voted in 2017, not 2015.

You're using worse information, when you don't have to, to reach a conclusion that doesn't fit with the better, more recent and more complete information.

I can't work out what data-driven justification you're using for any of your figures here. Why are you assuming all Tory and green voters from 2015 voted Leave? What data-driven justification do you have to show 1,500 "Tory+Green voters and 1,200 "new" voters voted Remain, and why? You haven't even mentioned the Brexit Party, which was the central purpose of my point - finding out, based on current polling and best data, where their voters will come from and what, i don't know how you've come up with some of your figures because they seem to be entirely imagined, and you've taken my estimated figure of 38.5% leave voters in 2017 voting Labour and applying that to the 2015 election for which you've provided no rationale to suggest that the same figure is accurate.

I appreciate the time you took to post what you posted, but i'm not sure how any of it has any weight. I'm also unsure why you removed the rest of my post before quoting it.

All my post was doing was proving that your "38.5% of Labour supporters voted Leave" theory is wrong. At least, you may not accept it is wrong because it is mathematically possible that the Conservatives, Liberals, UKIP, and Greens were 87% combined pro-Leave. But it isn't likely. When producing statistics, pure theory is a good starting point, but if the results bear no relation to reality at the end of it, you need to accept that it is more likely to be the statistics that are wrong, not reality. There were not enough Remain voters for Labour to have been 61.5% Remain.

[dsr]

Perhaps you did not live in it.

The union controlled what I did and when.

When I made too many components an hour, the union threatened to have me done over if I went into town on a night out.

When that didn’t work they threatened to to branch me and remove my union card which would mean I would be sacked. As it was a closed shop.

Feel free to go back to that.

In the early 1970's the Colne Times carried a report of a man with a wife and two young children who was sacked by order of his union, because twenty years earlier (aged 16) he had worked for two months in a non-union factory.

[thatdberight]

When producing statistics, pure theory is a good starting point, but if the results bear no relation to reality at the end of it, you need to accept that it is more likely to be the statistics that are wrong, not reality. There were not enough Remain voters for Labour to have been 61.5% Remain.

Yep. That's true.

Although it can, of course, be not the base statistics but rather some maladroit mangling of them that causes the problem.

[Imploding Turtle]

All my post was doing was proving that your "38.5% of Labour supporters voted Leave" theory is wrong. ...

Wasn't a theory.

If you're going to criticise what i say then please at least understand what I said.

[dsr]

Wasn't a theory.

If you're going to criticise what i say then please at least understand what I said.

If you're saying it wasn't a theory, then I definitely don't understand what you said. Please explain.

[Lowbankclaret]

In the early 1970's the Colne Times carried a report of a man with a wife and two young children who was sacked by order of his union, because twenty years earlier (aged 16) he had worked for two months in a non-union factory.

In my earLy twenties in Burnley I spent quite some time fighting the unions. A lonely case I might add.

My last fight with the union was because they banned me from working overtime as they arranged an unofficial strike over xmas they forgot to tell me about. Which I had agreed to work.

The company agreed to pay me my average overtime whilst I fought the union.

The union lost .

It was no surprise Lucas went to the wall.

It’s just fortunate many great engineers live on in the companies around Burnley.

[Lowbankclaret]

The young have absolutely no idea what Corbyns idea of a Commy Britain is.

If they get to live it , they will fight against it harder than they fought to get into it.

[Greenmile]

Perhaps you did not live in it.

The union controlled what I did and when.

When I made too many components an hour, the union threatened to have me done over if I went into town on a night out.

When that didn’t work they threatened to to branch me and remove my union card which would mean I would be sacked. As it was a closed shop.

Feel free to go back to that.

So Britain was Communist in the 70s before Thatcher, was it?

You’re not the greatest exponent of the idea that the Brexit party isn’t a fairly extreme right-wing party.