General Election Is On

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aggi
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Re: General Election Is On

Post by aggi » Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:38 am

CrosspoolClarets wrote:A lot of people seem to be casually disregarding the risk in Labour’s spending plans.

I would simply ask:
  • 1. Who will the money be borrowed off? Will any of it be quantitative easing? At what interest rate will the loan be? Will our risk rating remain the same under Corbyn?

    2. How much of it is NOT long term infrastructure investment (i.e. no payback as such)?

    3. How can we be sure that taxing the rich will cause GDP growth? It seems counter intuitive. What if it falls? A vicious cycle could result.

    4. What is the forecast effect on sterling, interest rates and inflation? If the last two go up sharply (likely, if wages shoot up and infrastructure spending piles in) that could cause a collapse in employment and house prices.
The impact of Brexit seems fairly in depth modelling, a small dip seems the most likely outcome now, even the BoE agree. The impact of Corbynomics is much less well understood. The risks seem massive - few countries in the world have succeeded with such a policy. Anybody supporting this way forward is taking a much bigger risk than a Brexiteer, simply based on real world evidence of socialism and lack of detailed economic models of the UK plans.
What you're missing here is that if Brexit goes badly it is irreversible. If "Corbynomics" goes badly it may drag on for a few years but we can vote the party out after 5 years and change things around.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Bfcboyo » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:07 am

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by AndrewJB » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:43 am

android wrote:I don't hate Corbyn. I can disagree with someone without hating them.

It seems highly unlikely that the 130k deaths claim stands up to any serious independent scrutiny. Some of your other points will have varying degrees of merit but I'm going to bed. It was ridiculous to say we are in a dire situation - take a look outside the UK.
How dire is dire? We could be setting in place the process where our planet becomes too hot to host life. The Brexit situation is dire. You’ve claimed some Labour Party members are dangerous because they’re Marxists (I don’t know any now, but those in university were against armed struggle in a democracy - so obviously what a Marxist believes could be a range of things), but what members of this government believe is downright scary. No ideology avowed, but what they’ve said, and what they’ve written. A racist, homophobic, and liar for a PM. In Britannia Unchained (written by four cabinet members and another MP who features as a spokesperson) they describe British workers as lazy, and talk about how our rights need to be curtailed. They are disgraceful, and a danger to our country - but you’d rather bang on about someone once saying they’re Marxist?

We aren’t close to being in as dire a situation as we were after ww2, but at that time it was the same economic plan that Labour propose now that got us out of it.
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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Dy1geo » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:44 am

Even though I don’t support the Lib Dem’s they have come out with a policy to address the skills gap, they are investing in adult retraining as I have been saying is the skills gap that is keeping wages down.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Devils_Advocate » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:50 am

dsr wrote:I know there are several posters on here who have accused me of hypocrisy because I said that in my opinion Brexit will not cause economic meltdown but in my opinion Corbyn's policies will. I have no idea how that can be considered hypocrisy, but still. If that's the way your minds work.

But strangely, the people accusing me of hypocrisy are the same people who believe that Brexit will cause economic meltdown and Corbyn's policies won't. How does that work? Does it mean that hypocrisy has gone away from the idea that different circumstances have different results, and moved back towards the idea that you and yours are right and everyone else is wrong?
The hypocrisy lies in the reasoning for your position rather than the position itself. If you came out with some well thought out or supported ideas why one might be good and different reasoning why the other might be bad people might disagree with you but at least they'd be some substance to discuss.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by tiger76 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:20 am

Thank goodness the odious Keith Vaz is retiring,why Labour's NEC didn't have the bottle to make a decision on his future last week,only they'll know.

The Jarrow seat is clearly cursed for Labour,it should still be a safe hold,but they're doing their level best to make it interesting.

The row over the selection of a Labour candidate who shared an image of Theresa May with a gun being held to her head continues.

Kate Osborne, a North Tyneside councillor, was selected to stand for Labour in Jarrow over the weekend.

But in 2017 she shared a mocked-up image on social media of Samuel L Jackson holding a gun to the former prime minister's head - a parody of a scene from the film Pulp Fiction.

Ms Osborne has apologised, but even before her selection for the Jarrow seat a number of female Labour MPs had condemned the post and asked for the party's NEC to reconsider her selection in the seat.

Stephen Hepburn, who has represented Jarrow for Labour since 1997, was not selected to fight the seat after previously being suspended from the party over allegations of sexual harassment - which he denies.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Clarets4me » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:32 am

AndrewJB wrote: We aren’t close to being in as dire a situation as we were after ww2, but at that time it was the same economic plan that Labour propose now that got us out of it.
You may have a point, we may well see the same economic plan under Labour ....

Not sure how manufacturing for export only, food and petrol rationing, exchange controls and compulsory National Service will go down though ! ;)

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:17 pm

Brexit Party not contesting any Tory seats.

Thank god for that, the end of Farage is nigh.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Steve-Harpers-perm » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:18 pm

Not man of the people Nige!

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:19 pm

Steve-Harpers-perm wrote:Not man of the people Nige!

Yes, who could possibly believe that Farage would let people down eh?

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:20 pm

Look. Nigel Farage believes in Democracy and Brexit.

He believes in them so much he's not going to let half the country vote for his party because to do so might cause a 2nd referendum or avert Johnson's deal, which is not Brexit.

What about this is unclear to you people?

(stolen from twitter)

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Clarets4me » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:22 pm

Nigel Farage has just announced that the Brexit Party will not stand in 317 Conservative held seats, following Boris Johnson's video assurance yesterday that he would not extend the Brexit transition arrangement ....

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:25 pm

Clarets4me wrote:Nigel Farage has just announced that the Brexit Party will not stand in 317 Conservative held seats, following Boris Johnson's video assurance yesterday that he would not extend the Brexit transition arrangement ....
If he doesn't extend it, then its a "No Deal"

I'm sure the likes of dsr and Crosspool will be along shortly telling us that there is no reason why we can't do an FTA in less than a year.

I'll ask them an equivalent example, or even ones between smaller fully industrialised countries that is less than a year and they will suddenly forget their log in details.

We've been here before.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by JohnMcGreal » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:32 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Brexit Party not contesting any Tory seats.

Thank god for that, the end of Farage is nigh.
Potentially devastating news for remain.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:32 pm

I see that farage has triggered all the usual suspects.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by TheFamilyCat » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:33 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Brexit Party not contesting any Tory seats.

Thank god for that, the end of Farage is nigh.
Haha. What a dick!

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Vino blanco » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:33 pm

I can hear the champagne corks popping at Tory HQ.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Clarets4me » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:37 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Look. Nigel Farage believes in Democracy and Brexit.

He believes in them so much he's not going to let half the country vote for his party because to do so might cause a 2nd referendum or avert Johnson's deal, which is not Brexit. What about this is unclear to you people? (stolen from twitter)
To be fair, it's an election system that saw UKIP gain 3,881,099 votes in 2015 .... and be rewarded with 1 MP , the Scottish National Party attracted 1,454,436 votes ,( 37% of UKIP's vote ) and gained 56 MP's ....

Farage is gaming the system to try to gain what he wants, which you have to admit, is precisely what the " Remainers " have been doing for the last 3 years .....
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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:40 pm

AndyClaret wrote:I see that farage has triggered all the usual suspects.
Quite surprised you've been so restrained at Corbyn not wanting to wipe out civilisation to be perfectly honest.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:41 pm

Clarets4me wrote:To be fair, it's an election system that saw UKIP gain 3,881,099 votes in 2015 .... and be rewarded with 1 MP , the Scottish National Party attracted 1,454,436 votes ,( 37% of UKIP's vote ) and gained 56 MP's ....

Farage is gaming the system to try to gain what he wants, which you have to admit, is precisely what the " Remainers " have been doing for the last 3 years .....
What has changed from what he wanted yesterday to what he wants today?

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by AlargeClaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:44 pm

Can’t they just give Farage a peerage and be done with both him and the BP?

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:49 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Quite surprised you've been so restrained at Corbyn not wanting to wipe out civilisation to be perfectly honest.
Nothing that we didn't already know.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:49 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:What has changed from what he wanted yesterday to what he wants today?
Watch boris' video from yesterday.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Spijed » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:51 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Watch boris' video from yesterday.
What happens to all those Labour supporters who will never vote tory in a million years

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:52 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Watch boris' video from yesterday.
And we go back to the "what kind of idiot trusts Boris Johnston?"

I mean, you've got Crosspool saying "well, he lies in his personal life, but he can be trusted 100% in political life"

Brexit has made a lot of you look completely bonkers it has to be said.

I mean, you are trusting Johnson because he says he can get Brexit done, and you all assume Johnston is going to give you the Brexit you crave.

Its very hard for a rational person to understand.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:54 pm

Yesterday - Johnstons deal is a complete betrayal of Brexit

Today - Johnstons deal is exactly what we wanted

Pointing it out to you so you can't pretend its not the case.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by dsr » Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:56 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:If he doesn't extend it, then its a "No Deal"

I'm sure the likes of dsr and Crosspool will be along shortly telling us that there is no reason why we can't do an FTA in less than a year.

I'll ask them an equivalent example, or even ones between smaller fully industrialised countries that is less than a year and they will suddenly forget their log in details.

We've been here before.
I don't think there are any equivalent circumstances where two countries who already have free trade want to renegotiate free trade under a different political arrangement. Obviously Greenland left the EU and agreed a deal with no difficulty, but they're much smaller and have specific links with Denmark.

Mostly trade deals are between countries that don't already have a trade deal in place.

Of course, they could negotiate a temporary or pro tem trade agreement as a transitional trade agreement, which would not be the same as a transitional remain-in-the-EU agreement.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:02 pm

dsr wrote:I don't think there are any equivalent circumstances where two countries who already have free trade want to renegotiate free trade under a different political arrangement. Obviously Greenland left the EU and agreed a deal with no difficulty, but they're much smaller and have specific links with Denmark.

Mostly trade deals are between countries that don't already have a trade deal in place.

Of course, they could negotiate a temporary or pro tem trade agreement as a transitional trade agreement, which would not be the same as a transitional remain-in-the-EU agreement.
Johnston has refused to extend the transitional period, which is the excuse Farage is using to pull out (he's getting slaughtered in the polls) even though no one trusts a word Johnson says and all the pundits (who have been spot on with the extensions before btw) are saying he can't do it before the end of 2020.

But no, you know differently?

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Vino blanco » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:02 pm

Well done Nigel Farage, he has put country first before party. A brave decision by a brave politician.
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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:04 pm

Anyone remember the "die in a ditch" pledge about leaving the EU on Oct 31st?

If you do, but you still believe Johnston, then there is something not quite right........

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Vino blanco wrote:Well done Nigel Farage, he has put country first before party. A brave decision by a brave politician.
Top, top, top trolling

I salute you sir!

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by martin_p » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:08 pm

None of this has anything to do with the BP’s plummeting poll figures of course.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:10 pm

Pound surging....

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by aggi » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:10 pm

dsr wrote:I don't think there are any equivalent circumstances where two countries who already have free trade want to renegotiate free trade under a different political arrangement. Obviously Greenland left the EU and agreed a deal with no difficulty, but they're much smaller and have specific links with Denmark.

Mostly trade deals are between countries that don't already have a trade deal in place.

Of course, they could negotiate a temporary or pro tem trade agreement as a transitional trade agreement, which would not be the same as a transitional remain-in-the-EU agreement.
So are you expecting the UK to give in on all the regulatory alignment stuff?

I'd have thought that would have been a huge issue for a lot of Brexit voters but the only way I can see a deal being done that quickly is if we or the EU fold on the contentious points and it's rare for the larger party to do that.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:11 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Yesterday - Johnstons deal is a complete betrayal of Brexit

Today - Johnstons deal is exactly what we wanted
Pointing it out to you so you can't pretend its not the case.
Lots of remainers absolutely furious on twitter.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by dsr » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:12 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Johnston has refused to extend the transitional period, which is the excuse Farage is using to pull out (he's getting slaughtered in the polls) even though no one trusts a word Johnson says and all the pundits (who have been spot on with the extensions before btw) are saying he can't do it before the end of 2020.

But no, you know differently?
Yes, I know that all the pundits said that he couldn't negotiate a revised deal to leave the EU, and (with the benefit of hindsight) I know those pundits were wrong. Of course, this may be a different set of pundits.

The transitional period is a period where we are still subject to EU rules and jurisdiction. A transitional trade agreement could be made on a short term basis while negotiations were being completed, so if a deal was nearly there but not complete it would not mean we couldn't carry on as before. But that wouldn't have to keep us iunder EU jurisdiction.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by AndyClaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:12 pm

Spijed wrote:What happens to all those Labour supporters who will never vote tory in a million years
They split the labour vote by voting brexit, and thus let the Tories win.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by dsr » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:14 pm

aggi wrote:So are you expecting the UK to give in on all the regulatory alignment stuff?

I'd have thought that would have been a huge issue for a lot of Brexit voters but the only way I can see a deal being done that quickly is if we or the EU fold on the contentious points and it's rare for the larger party to do that.
That depends on whether the EU, in principle, wants free trade or not. The EU is traditionally protectionist and tends to be opposed to free trade except with their own borders. If that continues, and they decide the political aspect of free trade outweighs the financial benefits, then there won't be an agreement. But if the EU wants free trade, the rest is just detail and should be resolved relatively easily.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:17 pm

dsr wrote:Yes, I know that all the pundits said that he couldn't negotiate a revised deal to leave the EU, and (with the benefit of hindsight) I know those pundits were wrong. Of course, this may be a different set of pundits.

The transitional period is a period where we are still subject to EU rules and jurisdiction. A transitional trade agreement could be made on a short term basis while negotiations were being completed, so if a deal was nearly there but not complete it would not mean we couldn't carry on as before. But that wouldn't have to keep us iunder EU jurisdiction.
That is extending the transitional period.

Cheers!

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:18 pm

dsr wrote:That depends on whether the EU, in principle, wants free trade or not. The EU is traditionally protectionist and tends to be opposed to free trade except with their own borders. If that continues, and they decide the political aspect of free trade outweighs the financial benefits, then there won't be an agreement. But if the EU wants free trade, the rest is just detail and should be resolved relatively easily.
Three years, and its the same crap.

We are in trouble if people vote based on your level of knowledge about this kind of thing it has to be said.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by dsr » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:21 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:That is extending the transitional period.

Cheers!
Are you saying that we are out of EU jurisdiction and EU rules as soon as Boris's agreement is signed? I thought we had to wait for the end of the transitional period for that.

I think you're confusing the two issues. The deal on the table at the moment, as way May's deal, is an agreement for how we leave the EU. Once it's agreed, we will have left the EU and for a year or so will be under this transitional agreement.

The next stage of negotiations is about future trade relationships. It may be that a deal is agreed within a year; it may be that a deal is rejected and negotiations stop within a year. But it may also be that negotiations are ongoing but incomplete and it is agreed to create a temporary trade agreement for trade conditions to carry on as they are now, in the short term. If that happens, it would be a new agreement. Creating that new agreement is not the same as extending an old one. Under that hypothetical new agreement, we would no longer be under EU jurisdiction.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:21 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Yesterday - Johnstons deal is a complete betrayal of Brexit

Today - Johnstons deal is exactly what we wanted

Pointing it out to you so you can't pretend its not the case.

There are a lot of Brexit candidates who are furious.

But Burnley will still be contested and early stats are looking very good for the BP.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by dsr » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:22 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Three years, and its the same crap.

We are in trouble if people vote based on your level of knowledge about this kind of thing it has to be said.
You have said all along that the EU won't give the UK a good deal for political reasons.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:23 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:There are a lot of Brexit candidates who are furious.

But Burnley will still be contested and early stats are looking very good for the BP.
What is the point in voting for the Brexit Party?

You might as well vote Conservative

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:25 pm

dsr wrote:You have said all along that the EU won't give the UK a good deal for political reasons.
Yup

But if we are willing to stay in regulatory alignment, we get a good deal (I've always said that as well)

But that kills a UK-US trade deal (not a problem for me, but its the big thing to talk about for the right wing of the Tory Party)

We all know we could have had Brexit done and dusted if we'd agreed to a sensible deal, but we haven't, which is why we are having our third election on four years and look like that whatever the result, it will heal zero divisions, because the two extremes are too incompatible.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Vino blanco » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:26 pm

Many, many of my mates in Burnley are Labour through and through. They will never vote Conservative but they will vote for the Brexit Party.

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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:28 pm

Vino blanco wrote:Many, many of my mates in Burnley are Labour through and through. They will never vote Conservative but they will vote for the Brexit Party.
Which is a de facto vote for the Conservative Party.

Hey, whatever makes them sleep at night I guess

Vino blanco
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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Vino blanco » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:30 pm

I think you'll find, Lancaster, it makes it a vote for the Brexit Party.

Lancasterclaret
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Re: General Election Is On

Post by Lancasterclaret » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:31 pm

Vino blanco wrote:I think you'll find, Lancaster, it makes it a vote for the Brexit Party.
it means a vote for a Conservative Government.

One run by the right of the party.

One run by the side that has been marginalised for a very good reason.

Like I say, whatever makes them sleep at night.
Last edited by Lancasterclaret on Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TheFamilyCat
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Re: General Election Is On

Post by TheFamilyCat » Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:32 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Which is a de facto vote for the Conservative Party.

Hey, whatever makes them sleep at night I guess
But they'll never have to admit to their mates in the pub that they voted Tory
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