General Election Is On

[AndrewJB]

Woman at work today told everyone she was voting Tory her sole reason was she thinks Boris would be ‘better at war’ than Corbyn and the others.

"Better at war"? In my opinion, the greatest theorist on war is Sun Tzu, who lived and wrote over two thousand years ago, and his collection of writings ("The Art of War") begins by describing war as a failure of diplomacy, and saying the best generals are those who don't have to fight. I think a Corbyn government would act more along these precepts. I could easily see Johnson being more casual about the lives of the members of our armed forces (and involving them in things that don't involve defending the UK and our NATO allies), than Corbyn, though Corbyn has said there is such a thing as a just war.

[Spiral]

YouGov MRP polling puts Burnley at (low to high range) 10-24% for BXP, 23-39% for CON and 32-46% for LAB. Overall national prediction of a huge Tory majority, obvious caveat with MRP being that inaccuracy as low as a few % for any cohort throws marginals one way to the other when extrapolated. This could be significant with a lot of tactical voting going on, especially with the predicted majority influencing tactical psychology. For the benefit of Lancaster, Lancaster & Fleetwood (I'm assuming you're from there???) very tight at 32-47% CON, 36-51% LAB, LD at 3-11%. You know what to do, son!

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-electio ... rch-anchor" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Clarets4me]

How do I find these polls?? As I have said Julies vote appears to have collapsed.
The biggest group we encounter are the undecided. Could be interesting!

Not too encouraging for you " Lowbank " .. it's predicting:

Lab 39%
Con 31%
Brx 14%
L/D 10%
Grn 3%
Ind 1%

As I said, I'd be very careful about extrapolating National polls into Individual Constituencies, which this attempts to do ... according to the Politics blog I got this from, the Tories will take Hyndburn by 3% and increase their margin over Labour to a whopping 18% in Pendle.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

"Better at war"? In my opinion, the greatest theorist on war is Sun Tzu, who lived and wrote over two thousand years ago, and his collection of writings ("The Art of War") begins by describing war as a failure of diplomacy, and saying the best generals are those who don't have to fight. I think a Corbyn government would act more along these precepts. I could easily see Johnson being more casual about the lives of the members of our armed forces (and involving them in things that don't involve defending the UK and our NATO allies), than Corbyn, though Corbyn has said there is such a thing as a just war.

It didn’t really make much sense but suppose shows people find their own reasons on who to vote for.

[Spiral]

Yet another display of how utterly, breathtakingly b0llocks our FPTP system actually is, BXP 3% - 0 seats (zero), GRN 3% - 1 seat, SNP 3% - 43 seats, Plaid 0% (zero, rounding) - 4 seats LOL!!!

[Clarets4me]

Woman at work today told everyone she was voting Tory her sole reason was she thinks Boris would be ‘better at war’ than Corbyn and the others.

Ah, the traditional " Defence of the Realm is the first duty of Government " theory ... I suspect if enemy forces were 10 miles from Downing Street, Prime Minister Corbyn would be leading protest marches around Hyde Park, with Lily Allen playing " Give Peace a Chance " from a sound-stage !

I hope you and your Colleagues listened and learnt from this wise Lady !!

[Quickenthetempo]

"Better at war"? In my opinion, the greatest theorist on war is Sun Tzu, who lived and wrote over two thousand years ago, and his collection of writings ("The Art of War") begins by describing war as a failure of diplomacy, and saying the best generals are those who don't have to fight. I think a Corbyn government would act more along these precepts. I could easily see Johnson being more casual about the lives of the members of our armed forces (and involving them in things that don't involve defending the UK and our NATO allies), than Corbyn, though Corbyn has said there is such a thing as a just war.

Corbyn hates Britain that much he might declare war on its self.

[Lowbankclaret]

Not too encouraging for you " Lowbank " .. it's predicting:

Lab 39%
Con 31%
Brx 14%
L/D 10%
Grn 3%
Ind 1%

As I said, I'd be very careful about extrapolating National polls into Individual Constituencies, which this attempts to do ... according to the Politics blog I got this from, the Tories will take Hyndburn by 3% and increase their margin over Labour to a whopping 18% in Pendle.

There is no way Julie Cooper will get 39%.

[AndrewJB]

Corbyn hates Britain that much he might declare war on its self.

The same way Johnson throws sticks for himself to chase and fetch?

[Damo]

Whether you slag him off or not won’t make a difference to him winning or losing. If you’re not a massive Tory and from what you have said you are not a fan of any party. Why only highlight the crap from one side?

Because, my personal opinion is that Corbyn would be an absolute disaster.
Are you a massive Corbynista?

[AndrewJB]

https://www.channel4.com/news/corbyn-ma ... -margolyes" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Jewish woman talks about Corbyn.

[CrosspoolClarets]

YouGov MRP polling puts Burnley at (low to high range) 10-24% for BXP, 23-39% for CON and 32-46% for LAB. Overall national prediction of a huge Tory majority, obvious caveat with MRP being that inaccuracy as low as a few % for any cohort throws marginals one way to the other when extrapolated. This could be significant with a lot of tactical voting going on, especially with the predicted majority influencing tactical psychology. For the benefit of Lancaster, Lancaster & Fleetwood (I'm assuming you're from there???) very tight at 32-47% CON, 36-51% LAB, LD at 3-11%. You know what to do, son!

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-electio ... rch-anchor" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Apparently the methodology takes account of tactical voting but not weird local issues.

Yougov say this is predicated on a 11% Tory lead but if this sinks under 7% there may be no majority, so it is tight, but before Corbynites get carried away........

My observations are that if I take the CSV file and sort in by decreasing Brexit Party vote, Labour win in about 80 of the top 100 seats. Burnley is 9th. Barnsley are top with 25% Brexit Party vote!

That says to me that the Tories could win a heck of a lot more of those seats than Yougov currently think if the Brexit Party voters choose to tactically vote Tory. That seems far more likely than any other tactical switching.

[Paul Waine]

Yet another display of how utterly, breathtakingly b0llocks our FPTP system actually is, BXP 3% - 0 seats (zero), GRN 3% - 1 seat, SNP 3% - 43 seats, Plaid 0% (zero, rounding) - 4 seats LOL!!!

Hi Spiral, fascinating numbers, but SNP only standing in Scotland, of course, which is X% of total GB electorate. So, what percentage of X do SNP achieve? Similarly for Plaid, only standing in Wales. Plus - and please correct me if I've got this wrong - aren't there more seats in Scotland per electorate? So, adjust 3% X and smaller constituencies = 43 seats?

[Rick_Muller]

08158BA7-848C-4D91-A7E8-294EC765C8F4.jpeg (201.52 KiB) Viewed 1766 times

[AndrewJB]

Another Jewish woman speaks about Corbyn: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=s9alIrAbBpA" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[tiger76]

No. That's who I will be voting for at the GE though
Unfortunately there is no viable alternative

Sadly this is the case,and until Labour get their act together it'll remain so,the reason Blair got huge majorities in his first 2 terms,was because he appealed to a lot of small c Conservative voters,and at that time the Conservatives abandoned the centre ground.

Now you could argue both major parties have gone to extremes,but Labour have lost some of their core working-class support,partly due to their brexit stance,and partly because of Corbyn.

[Jakubclaret]

Sadly this is the case,and until Labour get their act together it'll remain so,the reason Blair got huge majorities in his first 2 terms,was because he appealed to a lot of small c Conservative voters,and at that time the Conservatives abandoned the centre ground.

Now you could argue both major parties have gone to extremes,but Labour have lost some of their core working-class support,partly due to their brexit
stance,and partly because of Corbyn.

True, for some reason some people just haven't taken to Corbyn & disliked him from day 1, even people within his own party whilst others really follow him & believe in him, appears to be the Mr marmite of politics personified.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Sadly this is the case,and until Labour get their act together it'll remain so,the reason Blair got huge majorities in his first 2 terms,was because he appealed to a lot of small c Conservative voters,and at that time the Conservatives abandoned the centre ground.

Now you could argue both major parties have gone to extremes,but Labour have lost some of their core working-class support,partly due to their brexit stance,and partly because of Corbyn.

And partly because of hyper-liberalism.

Most of those voters believe in family, community, nation state, strong law and order, robust migration controls - as you rightly say, small c conservatives, but I would add in a social sense not an economic one. Labour has become a Lib Dem clone in many senses and Johnson is moving into that space, but if Labour rebalance themselves as moderately economically left, and moderately socially right, those voters will flood back.

[Spijed]

But as John Curtis said tonight, Boris Johnson is least popular PM in living memory.

Shows how bad things have got when racism becomes acceptable in society.

[Spiral]

Apparently the methodology takes account of tactical voting but not weird local issues.

Yougov say this is predicated on a 11% Tory lead but if this sinks under 7% there may be no majority, so it is tight, but before Corbynites get carried away........

My observations are that if I take the CSV file and sort in by decreasing Brexit Party vote, Labour win in about 80 of the top 100 seats. Burnley is 9th. Barnsley are top with 25% Brexit Party vote!

That says to me that the Tories could win a heck of a lot more of those seats than Yougov currently think if the Brexit Party voters choose to tactically vote Tory. That seems far more likely than any other tactical switching.

This is in line with Sir John Curtice's prediction of a 6-7% majority giving rise to hung parliament territory. So a 2% national swing from CON to LAB could damage Johnson's hopes of a majority if it materialises in approx 30 of the specific marginals the Tories are predicted to gain from Labour. 3-4% national gain and he'll be $hitting himself. Can't see that myself but labour are going all out on the NHS so who knows. It's worth noting that this poll is 15 days from the election whereas the 2017 prediction was just 10 days out. If Labour claw back 2-3% from the Tories by Sunday night (absolutely monumental task but not unprecedented) Boris will be getting nervous and we're approaching 2017 volatility. A grilling by Andrew Neil on Mon/Tue could kill him, so as repulsive and cowardly as I find his decision to run away from scrutiny, I can see why he's trying to avoid the interview. One interesting point is the relatively surprising holds for the Tories in Scotland. On tactical voting by BXP, I'd agree to a point, but it must be remembered that their sole reason for existing in the north is to provide a Brexit outlet for those who completely despise the Tories. Could those voters vote for Johnson?

[dsr]

But as John Curtis said tonight, Boris Johnson is least popular PM in living memory.

Shows how bad things have got when racism becomes acceptable in society.

Are you talking about the party leader who says that Moslem women should be allowed to wear outfits that look like pillar boxes, or the party leader who claims as friends people who are dedicated to extermination of the Jews?

[tiger76]

And partly because of hyper-liberalism.

Most of those voters believe in family, community, nation state, strong law and order, robust migration controls - as you rightly say, small c conservatives, but I would add in a social sense not an economic one. Labour has become a Lib Dem clone in many senses and Johnson is moving into that space, but if Labour rebalance themselves as moderately economically left, and moderately socially right, those voters will flood back.

The Conservatives may well win a lot of floating voters due to brexit,but it would be folly to take those votes for granted next time,if the opinion polls are accurate Labour will struggle to hold much above 200 seats,and they could lose long-held northern seats,but you'd assume it wouldn't take much of a seachange for Labour to potentially make large gains at the following election,of course this would require a major rethink and a lot of changes in the leadership,but in the long-term this might be a good election for Labour to lose,the Conservatives will be left with the poisoned chalice of brexit to deal with,and there's many tricky hurdles to overcome with that alone,also if Labour slump so badly surely Corbyn will fall on his sword,and the moderate Labour MP'S might be able to reposition the party to appeal to the masses,instead of a Corbynista clique.

[dsr]

... if Labour slump so badly surely Corbyn will fall on his sword,and the moderate Labour MP'S might be able to reposition the party to appeal to the masses,instead of a Corbynista clique.

Corbyn will be out, but McDonnell won't; and remember it's the membership he needs to win over. There are a lot of very left wing members of the Labour party; they might vote someone as bad as Corbyn to be the next leader. Or worse, they might vote for someone as left wing as Corbyn, but better at disseminating.

[AndyClaret]

08158BA7-848C-4D91-A7E8-294EC765C8F4.jpeg

Ah, the funny fella with the super injunction to cover up his sexual pecodillos.

[AndrewJB]

Are you talking about the party leader who says that Moslem women should be allowed to wear outfits that look like pillar boxes, or the party leader who claims as friends people who are dedicated to extermination of the Jews?

The party leader who wrote an article that led to an increase in attacks on Muslim women, or a party leader who has sat down with with extreme people in order to broker peace.

[Dy1geo]

The party leader who wrote an article that led to an increase in attacks on Muslim women, or a party leader who has sat down with with extreme people in order to broker peace.

The comments Johnson wrote whilst being part of a wider article should never have been written by someone who ever wants to hold high office. Whether that article led to attacks on Muslim women is open to debate as the wider Islamophobia started much earlier than this.

But sometimes you cannot defend the indefensible, by Corbyn not immediately apologising for any offence caused to the Jewish community and the way AN asked him four times it made him look bad. It is noticeable that senior Labour politicians since have apologised including Jon Ashworth last night on Peston.

And whilst you may say he sat down with them to talk peace, I personally cannot believe that as I feel he was always a tacit supporter and I couldn’t have seen Brown or Blair talking to the likes of Hamas or Hezbollah

[Lancasterclaret]

Both sides are crap but I want my crap side to win so I will only say crap about the other crap side.

What an election this is

Thats it in a nutshell

I wouldn't mind too much if Johnson had to do something to win, but he doesn't have to.

All he has to do is mention these things all the time

- Brexit can be done by the New Year
- Points based immigration system

Anything else which the last nine years has proved the Tories to be completely unreliable on just doesn't seem to matter, which is beyond weird but I think Crosspool has summed it up best (if in the most selfish way possible)

And Labours message was sunk as soon as they forget the lessons of 2017.

And because Labour and the Tories are so shite, Scotland is as close as it gets to leaving the UK.

Its an absolute **** poor state of affairs, in which you can pretty much blame everybody for.

We are left with the hope that Johnson isn't the person he's shown himself to be for his political career, which is absolutely epitomises "straw clutching"

[AndrewJB]

The comments Johnson wrote whilst being part of a wider article should never have been written by someone who ever wants to hold high office. Whether that article led to attacks on Muslim women is open to debate as the wider Islamophobia started much earlier than this.

But sometimes you cannot defend the indefensible, by Corbyn not immediately apologising for any offence caused to the Jewish community and the way AN asked him four times it made him look bad. It is noticeable that senior Labour politicians since have apologised including Jon Ashworth last night on Peston.

And whilst you may say he sat down with them to talk peace, I personally cannot believe that as I feel he was always a tacit supporter and I couldn’t have seen Brown or Blair talking to the likes of Hamas or Hezbollah

I think Corbyn should have said sorry as an act of empathy, but there can be no doubt as to his position, which he repeated several times. As for Blair not speaking with Hamas or Hezbollah - you probably haven't been following his career since he left office. He's done PR work for unelected dictators, for example: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/09/the- ... tony-blair" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

From an ethical standpoint, there's a wide gulf between Corbyn and Blair, just as there is between Corbyn and Johnson. Corbyn is streets ahead of both.

[CrosspoolClarets]

The Conservatives may well win a lot of floating voters due to brexit,but it would be folly to take those votes for granted next time,if the opinion polls are accurate Labour will struggle to hold much above 200 seats,and they could lose long-held northern seats,but you'd assume it wouldn't take much of a seachange for Labour to potentially make large gains at the following election,of course this would require a major rethink and a lot of changes in the leadership,but in the long-term this might be a good election for Labour to lose,the Conservatives will be left with the poisoned chalice of brexit to deal with,and there's many tricky hurdles to overcome with that alone,also if Labour slump so badly surely Corbyn will fall on his sword,and the moderate Labour MP'S might be able to reposition the party to appeal to the masses,instead of a Corbynista clique.

Yes, that was my point.

But it is also why I have made the judgement that Johnson will be piling cash into the north (plus that slightly socially conservative approach) to “lock down” the red wall while keeping the country in a healthy state financially. He doesn’t have a choice if he wants to keep those seats in 2024. In short, we’ll now be the priority, not London.

He wants to turn the Tories into the party of aspiration, to succeed whatever your background, and Cummings, judging by his rare blog post last night, has been convinced by him (Cummings’ whole philosophy is about tearing down existing political structures and rebuilding them in the public's image, he wouldn’t have gone into Number 10 if he wasn’t convinced).

Brexit has changed the country - the north have got their voice back, and realised THEY are the crucial swing seats. That is the huge factor in this and future elections.

[martin_p]

But it is also why I have made the judgement that Johnson will be piling cash into the north (plus that slightly socially conservative approach) to “lock down” the red wall while keeping the country in a healthy state financially. He doesn’t have a choice if he wants to keep those seats in 2024. In short, we’ll now be the priority, not London.

You really are living in a dream land! The Tories have spent the last nine years battering the north but are still likely to return more Tory MPs than ever at the next election. The conclusion Johnson is more likely to draw is that it doesn’t really matter what he does to the north as long as he makes the right noises and you seem to be living proof of that!

[CrosspoolClarets]

Anything else which the last nine years has proved the Tories to be completely unreliable on just doesn't seem to matter, which is beyond weird but I think Crosspool has summed it up best (if in the most selfish way possible."

Odd. A backhanded compliment but apart from saying how Corbyn’s taxes will take an extra five grand off my household (as basic rate taxpayers), making his 5% claim a total lie, I’ve done nothing but bang on about who is best to sort out left behind northern people, so I don’t know where selfishness comes in. Stupidity I can accept is in the range of possibilities.

)We are left with the hope that Johnson isn't the person he's shown himself to be for his political career, which is absolutely epitomises "straw clutching"

I would prefer the term “bold but risky decision making”.

[CrosspoolClarets]

You really are living in a dream land! The Tories have spent the last nine years battering the north but are still likely to return more Tory MPs than ever at the next election. The conclusion Johnson is more likely to draw is that it doesn’t really matter what he does to the north as long as he makes the right noises and you seem to be living proof of that!

We will see. As I said, Cummings believes him, his blog post last night made that clear. He is begging the north to trust Johnson, and Cummings has always fought for the north.

https://dominiccummings.com/

What will define whether I am right or you are right is whether Johnson’s government is different to the last nine years. I think it is. You think it is not. But, by choice, he is putting about 50 blue collar types into the HoC. They ain’t going to vote for a budget containing austerity which damages the north and midlands, mark my words. That mean it cannot happen. He has already changed the party for good, just by his candidate list.

An example - the Beast of Bolsover, Dennis Skinner, is forecast to lose to the Tories in that big mining town. Incredible stuff. The Tory candidate Mark Fletcher is the grandson of a miner who was brought up in Doncaster and went to state school. He has always had a white collar job but came from a blue collar background - will he vote for austerity?

[martin_p]

We will see. As I said, Cummings believes him, his blog post last night made that clear. He is begging the north to trust Johnson, and Cummings has always fought for the north.

https://dominiccummings.com/

What will define whether I am right or you are right is whether Johnson’s government is different to the last nine years. I think it is. You think it is not. But, by choice, he is putting about 50 blue collar types into the HoC. They ain’t going to vote for a budget containing austerity which damages the north and midlands, mark my words. That mean it cannot happen. He has already changed the party for good, just by his candidate list.

There’s not many people I’d trust less than Boris Johnson but Cummings is one of them!

And if you think Tory MPs selected by Boris Johnson aren’t going to support his every single policy then again, you’re in some strange dream land.

[Rick_Muller]

Odd. A backhanded compliment but apart from saying how Corbyn’s taxes will take an extra five grand off my household (as basic rate taxpayers), making his 5% claim a total lie, I’ve done nothing but bang on about who is best to sort out left behind northern people, so I don’t know where selfishness comes in. Stupidity I can accept is in the range of possibilities.

I dont suppose you'd mind itemising your extra 5 grand tax bill - that seems extremely excessive, especially at the basic rate of tax (that isn't changing as far as I can see)

[CrosspoolClarets]

There’s not many people I’d trust less than Boris Johnson but Cummings is one of them!

And if you think Tory MPs selected by Boris Johnson aren’t going to support his every single policy then again, you’re in some strange dream land.

Edited above to give an example. Off to work now, have a good day.

[martin_p]

Edited above to give an example. Off to work now, have a good day.

And it’s not about austerity, I think there’s a general acceptance that there won’t be any new cuts, it’s about much needed investment and undoing the damage of nearly ten years of cuts.

[CrosspoolClarets]

I dont suppose you'd mind itemising your extra 5 grand tax bill - that seems extremely excessive, especially at the basic rate of tax (that isn't changing as far as I can see)

I would mind, that is too much detail, but dividend tax is well over 50% of it.

I currently pay 20% corporation tax followed by 12.5% dividend tax on any money withdrawn from the business.

Businesses follow different challenges to employees - e.g. all the time I spend competing with the likes of KPMG for work is incomeless until I win it and begin. If I return from long unpaid sick I then have to waste more time tendering again. The lower tax rate was to address those problems (I actually think Osbourne bringing in the 12.5% was scandalous, Corbyn raising it is unforgiveable).

I know the above will bring no sympathy from Corbynites, but consider the single mother who runs a cleaning business through her limited company, brings in just £25,000, and now faces paying far more tax. Same problem.

[Dy1geo]

Crosspool - I hope that you are right regarding the North and he has promised better rail links etc but it has to be linked to actions.

In the campaign Johnson is never far away from an hospital but since 2010 spending on health as falling as a share of GDP at a time through demographic change the demand has been rising and he has to commit to a far higher level of spending on health to GDP to at least match the European average. Blair promised it in 1997 and through large increases he got there and since we have fallen back. Labour in my opinion have gone wrong attacking the Tories on the NHS going down the “sell off to the US” route they should have attacked on the level of funding. I will say this now if we continue to drop the level of spending on health as a % to GDP whatever he does for the North won’t matter as people will see the NHS as the defining issue at the next GE

[Rick_Muller]

I would mind, that is too much detail, but dividend tax is well over 50% of it.

I currently pay 20% corporation tax followed by 12.5% dividend tax on any money withdrawn from the business.

Businesses follow different challenges to employees - e.g. all the time I spend competing with the likes of KPMG for work is incomeless until I win it and begin. If I return from long unpaid sick I then have to waste more time tendering again. The lower tax rate was to address those problems (I actually think Osbourne bringing in the 12.5% was scandalous, Corbyn raising it is unforgiveable).

I know the above will bring no sympathy from Corbynites, but consider the single mother who runs a cleaning business through her limited company, brings in just £25,000, and now faces paying far more tax. Same problem.

Thanks Crosspool - I now understand your position and I respect that is your view.

[martin_p]

I would mind, that is too much detail, but dividend tax is well over 50% of it.

I currently pay 20% corporation tax followed by 12.5% dividend tax on any money withdrawn from the business.

Businesses follow different challenges to employees - e.g. all the time I spend competing with the likes of KPMG for work is incomeless until I win it and begin. If I return from long unpaid sick I then have to waste more time tendering again. The lower tax rate was to address those problems (I actually think Osbourne bringing in the 12.5% was scandalous, Corbyn raising it is unforgiveable).

I know the above will bring no sympathy from Corbynites, but consider the single mother who runs a cleaning business through her limited company, brings in just £25,000, and now faces paying far more tax. Same problem.

And I bet the reason to have enough profit to pay dividends and corporation tax is that you pay yourself a salary that means you don’t breach the threshold for income tax and NICs.

Pay yourself a bigger salary and pay income tax, then the corporation tax increases won’t rate impact you as much (although I guess you’ll pay yourself a wage up to the 40% tax threshold and take the rest as dividends to avoid paying 40% tax on some of your earnings).

[aggi]

I would mind, that is too much detail, but dividend tax is well over 50% of it.

I currently pay 20% corporation tax followed by 12.5% dividend tax on any money withdrawn from the business.

Businesses follow different challenges to employees - e.g. all the time I spend competing with the likes of KPMG for work is incomeless until I win it and begin. If I return from long unpaid sick I then have to waste more time tendering again. The lower tax rate was to address those problems (I actually think Osbourne bringing in the 12.5% was scandalous, Corbyn raising it is unforgiveable).

I know the above will bring no sympathy from Corbynites, but consider the single mother who runs a cleaning business through her limited company, brings in just £25,000, and now faces paying far more tax. Same problem.

I'll run the numbers later if I remember but surely the single mother in your example would be taking money out as a salary with the PA mitigating the corporate tax changes.

[Dy1geo]

And I bet the reason to have enough profit to pay dividends and corporation tax is that you pay yourself a salary that means you don’t breach the threshold for income tax and NICs.

Pay yourself a bigger salary and pay income tax, then the corporation tax increases won’t rate impact you as much (although I guess you’ll pay yourself a wage up to the 40% tax threshold and take the rest as dividends to avoid paying 40% tax on some of your earnings).

But McDonnell is proposing that Dividends are taxed at the same level as income tax and when calculating a tax bill income tax come first.

The dividend issue is a big one, I know two women who are 50% shareholders of a small company, one no longer physically works but receive a dividend. The other lady works and receives a normal wage around £14k plus her share of dividend. The company made £16k profit last year and 19% corporation tax was paid. The paid each other a dividend of £5k each and paid around £211.50 in dividend tax. The Labour proposal is that dividends are taxed at normal standard rate if income below high rate threshold so they will pay £1k each on that dividend income instead of £211.50 this is on top of the corporation tax increase. The reward you get for running a business and employing three people is declining.

[Lancasterclaret]

Odd. A backhanded compliment but apart from saying how Corbyn’s taxes will take an extra five grand off my household (as basic rate taxpayers), making his 5% claim a total lie, I’ve done nothing but bang on about who is best to sort out left behind northern people, so I don’t know where selfishness comes in. Stupidity I can accept is in the range of possibilities.



I would prefer the term “bold but risky decision making”.

With nothing to back it up, it not "bold", its "bloody daft."

Regarding your post to rick, why don't you pay your wife a wage as "company secretary" or something? That would help you.

[martin_p]

But McDonnell is proposing that Dividends are taxed at the same level as income tax and when calculating a tax bill income tax come first.

The dividend issue is a big one, I know two women who are 50% shareholders of a small company, one no longer physically works but receive a dividend. The other lady works and receives a normal wage around £14k plus her share of dividend. The company made £16k profit last year and 19% corporation tax was paid. The paid each other a dividend of £5k each and paid around £211.50 in dividend tax. The Labour proposal is that dividends are taxed at normal standard rate if income below high rate threshold so they will pay £1k each on that dividend income instead of £211.50 this is on top of the corporation tax increase. The reward you get for running a business and employing three people is declining.

Ive been paying £1k tax on £5k earnings ever since the income tax rate went down to 20%.

[Dy1geo]

Ive been paying £1k tax on £5k earnings ever since the income tax rate went down to 20%.

I presume you are PAYE so can switch off the minute you leave work, get Holiday pay and perhaps sick pay.

Running a business is not like that it comes with pressures getting orders in etc and as I said they employ three people and were thinking of taking on another but with these changes they are thinking again.

The main point is that whilst Corbyn said it the highest earners that will pay more someone earning £19k will be paying more and the irony is the other lady was a Labour voter but is voting Tory this time.

[martin_p]

I presume you are PAYE so can switch off the minute you leave work, get Holiday pay and perhaps sick pay.

Running a business is not like that it comes with pressures getting orders in etc and as I said they employ three people and were thinking of taking on another but with these changes they are thinking again.

The main point is that whilst Corbyn said it the highest earners that will pay more someone earning £19k will be paying more and the irony is the other lady was a Labour voter but is voting Tory this time.

So people should be allowed to pay less tax because they don’t get holiday pay or sick pay? So they essentially want tax payer funded sick pay and holiday pay.

[Paul Waine]

Crosspool - I hope that you are right regarding the North and he has promised better rail links etc but it has to be linked to actions.

In the campaign Johnson is never far away from an hospital but since 2010 spending on health as falling as a share of GDP at a time through demographic change the demand has been rising and he has to commit to a far higher level of spending on health to GDP to at least match the European average. Blair promised it in 1997 and through large increases he got there and since we have fallen back. Labour in my opinion have gone wrong attacking the Tories on the NHS going down the “sell off to the US” route they should have attacked on the level of funding. I will say this now if we continue to drop the level of spending on health as a % to GDP whatever he does for the North won’t matter as people will see the NHS as the defining issue at the next GE

Hi Dy1geo, I agree with you about matching European health spending levels. Do you think we should adopt the health funding systems that most major European countries use as the best way to achieve this?

[Dy1geo]

So people should be allowed to pay less tax because they don’t get holiday pay or sick pay? So they essentially want tax payer funded sick pay and holiday pay.

We are never going to agree, but I can say that Blair encouraged Business as he needed it to grow to fund the public expenditure he did and in my opinion Corbyn doesn’t have that view. Blair encouraged the aspirational risk takers and the proposals proposed by Labour on tax will have an effect and ultimately jobs will be lost.

[Tall Paul]

I would mind, that is too much detail, but dividend tax is well over 50% of it.

I currently pay 20% corporation tax followed by 12.5% dividend tax on any money withdrawn from the business.

Businesses follow different challenges to employees - e.g. all the time I spend competing with the likes of KPMG for work is incomeless until I win it and begin. If I return from long unpaid sick I then have to waste more time tendering again. The lower tax rate was to address those problems (I actually think Osbourne bringing in the 12.5% was scandalous, Corbyn raising it is unforgiveable).

I know the above will bring no sympathy from Corbynites, but consider the single mother who runs a cleaning business through her limited company, brings in just £25,000, and now faces paying far more tax. Same problem.

Why are you paying 12.5% on dividends when the rate is 7.5%?

And if you don't like the increase in corporation tax and dividend tax, you could always unincorporate and pay self-employed income tax on your earnings instead (as could the single mother in your example).

[Paul Waine]

And I bet the reason to have enough profit to pay dividends and corporation tax is that you pay yourself a salary that means you don’t breach the threshold for income tax and NICs.

Pay yourself a bigger salary and pay income tax, then the corporation tax increases won’t rate impact you as much (although I guess you’ll pay yourself a wage up to the 40% tax threshold and take the rest as dividends to avoid paying 40% tax on some of your earnings).

Hi martin, have you run your own limited company? I hope you weren't adopting that approach to your tax obligations.

My (small) business (before I closed it down), pay myself a salary, pay employer's and employee's NIC (if you are a director of your own business - which of course you are - NIC is annual cumulative), then calculate profit/loss - and pay corporation tax on any profit, then decide if there's any cash that can pay a dividend. Under the previous system, there was £5,000 tax free dividends, then it was reduced (Hammond) to £2,000, now Corbyn/McDonnell want's that reduced to zero - and tax all dividends received at your marginal tax rate. The reason for different tax rates on dividend income and other income is that you received dividends on profits that had already paid corporation tax - hence the governments used to follow the principle that they wouldn't tax the same income twice.