Up to 24 points

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:02 pm

With Villa only on 15 points from 18 games, there's a good chance a team might not even need 38 to stay up.
4 more wins from our remaining 20 games could be enough.

Let's hope we see bit more speculation (to accumulate) in the January transfer window, with what is an extremely good chance of staying up.

Croydon Claret · Post by **Croydon Claret** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:04 pm

35/36 is usually enough. Agree that 4 wins should see us over the line

Bosscat · Post by **Bosscat** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:06 pm

FactualFrank wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:02 pm
With Villa only on 15 points from 18 games, there's a good chance a team might not even need 38 to stay up.
4 more wins from our remaining 20 games could be enough.

Let's hope we see bit more speculation (to accumulate) in the January transfer window, with what is an extremely good chance of staying up.

/\

What Frank says

/\

NickBFC · Post by **NickBFC** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:06 pm

I agree, I hope this gives the board and Dyche confidence to spend in January and try to improve the starting XI. We look to be in a good place.

jrgbfc · Post by **jrgbfc** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:07 pm

No reason not to have a go in the FA Cup this year.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:08 pm

We can hope.

jdrobbo · Post by **jdrobbo** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:08 pm

35/36 will be enough, as it is almost every season.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:14 pm

Croydon Claret wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:04 pm
35/36 is usually enough. Agree that 4 wins should see us over the line

Yeah, it seems the average needed is 35.8, but 38 is often seen as a good target as it's a point per game.

Nice to see we have a bit of breathing space.

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:16 pm

Well at the half way last season we had 12 points

CombatClaret · Post by **CombatClaret** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:18 pm

If we were in the bottom three people would be demanding we spend in January to avoid going down.

Now we look odds on to be safe... it should give the board confidence to spend in January?

The less we spend the more I enjoy flying in the face of Premier League moneyball.

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:22 pm

Magic numbers will look good tonight.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:22 pm

Safe as houses.
So another hundred million or so guaranteed, yes, there should be a few bob for SD to spend.

Come on , Mike, get yer wallet out.

jrgbfc · Post by **jrgbfc** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:44 pm

It's looking a bit bleak for the bottom 3.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:32 pm

jrgbfc wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:44 pm
It's looking a bit bleak for the bottom 3.

Norwich... Completely doomed, not a chance of survival.
Watford....Don't look like improving, looking poor for them.
Villa...not sure about Villa. Might put a small run together,
but they're poor in most positions.

andyh · Post by **andyh** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:40 pm

Villa must be worried. They spent big and even though everyone said they had no chance of doing a Fulham that is exactly what they appear to be doing. Today’s game was huge for them and they got well and truly stuffed.

jrgbfc · Post by **jrgbfc** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 6:42 pm

Villa are conceding way too many goals. Can't concede 2 or 3 every week and hope to stay up.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 7:27 pm

Villa will pot Dean Smith.

Allerdyce would sort them out. Wouldnt be surprised if he ends up there or saints.

Cirrus_Minor · Post by **Cirrus_Minor** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 7:29 pm

Might encourage better quality signings to come if they also believe we could have another season in the PL.

Long Time Lurker · Post by **Long Time Lurker** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:00 pm

ElectroClaret wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:22 pm
Safe as houses.
So another hundred million or so guaranteed, yes, there should be a few bob for SD to spend.

Come on , Mike, get yer wallet out.

After player/staff wages, outstanding transfer payments and general running costs I think we might be doing well to put an extra ten million in the dry powder store.

I'm not so sure about increasing our spending level either.

I can see how access to additional funding would increase the options for the recruitment department and make their job easier, but that isn't guaranteed to provide better results and best value. Having more money to spend could equate to a higher potential for squandering more money.

I'm definitely not buying the difficult Winter window pre-excuses that are already being trotted out. Clubs will generally have fewer options to consider in the Winter window, but that simply means their recruitment teams have to perform at a higher level and they have to better prepared.

Quality players are available at respectable prices in every window, but they aren't going to drop from the sky or appear in Sean Dyches Christmas stocking - as if by magic. " Keeping our ears to the ground " and hoping an opportunity we can jump on presents itself is another risky highway to nowhere strategy. Success is about identifying suitable targets before the window opens and recognising circumstances that could lead to bargains before everyone is made aware of them.

Most clubs will be looking for top ups and extra additions in the Winter window, because they did most of their important business in the Summer. Unfortunately, we chose to do next to nothing last Winter so we could give Rigg 8 months to plan for the Summer window and he made a complete hash of it. Two consecutively poor windows means we are still looking to add some extra first team quality instead pf the last contract backup cloggers we have gravitated towards.

Looking at all the player names that are being churned out of the rumour mill it doesn't look like we have learned much of anything from the last two windows. Bogle isn't worth anywhere near 10m+, Brownhill isn't going anywhere ( and if he is then it will be for an eye watering amount ) and if Gallagher/Chelsea have any sense then getting regular game time at Charlton will be more appealing than thumb twiddling on our bench.

If you give a person a small amount of money to work with and they fail to demonstrate positive results the last thing you do is give them a large amount of money. Give a poor Technical Director 10m to play with and they will waste 10m, give them 100m and they will waste 100m. Success in the Winter transfer window ( or any window for that matter ) isn't about opening our purse wider it is about being smarter, more creative, more expansive and more pro-active in our recruitment.

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:07 pm

Villa are desperately missing Mings, not that I’m bothered.
Bottom 3 for me are done.

Woodleyclaret · Post by **Woodleyclaret** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:08 pm

Resign Tom as backup when Villa go down?

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:16 pm

Tricky Trevor wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:07 pm
Villa are desperately missing Mings, not that I’m bothered.
Bottom 3 for me are done.

Villa have two very winnable games next - Norwich who they hammered away and Watford who look gone. We have Everton away and United home. Before... Villa!

Don't get too complacent yet!

Nonayforever · Post by **Nonayforever** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:16 pm

It's not really the money, although you do need the money.
It's more about the right player for the team.
Man City could buy any, or all of our players & not improve their team.
We could buy almost any of Man City's players & not improve our team because we can't pass to them or play their way.
One player won't alter our style of play.
Dyche must be stuck about who to buy.

Tricky Trevor · Post by **Tricky Trevor** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:23 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:16 pm
Villa have two very winnable games next - Norwich who they hammered away and Watford who look gone. We have Everton away and United home. Before... Villa!

Don't get too complacent yet!

Spot on. I’m not a chicken counter until the jobs done but I still feel they are done.

dpinsussex · Post by **dpinsussex** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:25 pm

Win ugly.

Just win

UTC

Burnleyareback2 · Post by **Burnleyareback2** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:27 pm

Fantastic!!

What did we have on the board in December when we finished 7th?

padihamclaret · Post by **padihamclaret** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:29 pm

Our first team will carry on grinding results out and will keep us comfortably in this league but there are areas we struggle to cover if theres an injury/suspension:Taylor (really don't rate Pieters,) westwood and wood. I think Dyche has relalised our limit and want's to build a competitive squad

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:17 pm

Burnleyareback2 wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:27 pm
Fantastic!!

What did we have on the board in December when we finished 7th?

32 points, 8 more than today.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:18 pm

Oh and we had already played away at most of the top sides. We haven't yet.

Burnleyareback2 · Post by **Burnleyareback2** » Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:28 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 21, 2019 11:17 pm
32 points, 8 more than today.

Brilliant!UTC

Rowls · Post by **Rowls** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:06 am

If we pick up another 28 points like we did last season we'll finish on 52 points which would give us an outside chance of pushing for a european spot again.

An outside chance, it must be stressed.

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:35 am

We’re in the top half of the division so we really don’t need to be splashing loads of cash in January. It is evident that the squad we have is good enough to comfortably compete in this league. That said we obviously can’t rest on our laurels, we need to keep building the squad and add players who may not immediately walk into the side but will be capable of stepping up after 6/12 months.

January really isn’t the time to do that. We won’t know which of our soon to be out of contract players need replacing and we also won’t know whether our better players will be poached. If we sold McNeill and Tarkowski for a combined £70m in summer for example that would completely change the picture and our transfer strategy.

I suspect we won’t see much action in January and considering our position in the table I think that would be fairly sensible.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 3:55 am

Rileybobs wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:35 am
We’re in the top half of the division so we really don’t need to be splashing loads of cash in January. It is evident that the squad we have is good enough to comfortably compete in this league. That said we obviously can’t rest on our laurels, we need to keep building the squad and add players who may not immediately walk into the side but will be capable of stepping up after 6/12 months.

January really isn’t the time to do that. We won’t know which of our soon to be out of contract players need replacing and we also won’t know whether our better players will be poached. If we sold McNeill and Tarkowski for a combined £70m in summer for example that would completely change the picture and our transfer strategy.

I suspect we won’t see much action in January and considering our position in the table I think that would be fairly sensible.

or we could sign people in January giving them 6 months in the squad getting used to things in the knowledge we will probably lose Tarks and McNeil in the summer

jrgbfc · Post by **jrgbfc** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:30 am

Rowls wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:06 am
If we pick up another 28 points like we did last season we'll finish on 52 points which would give us an outside chance of pushing for a european spot again.

An outside chance, it must be stressed.

To finish 7th we'd likely have to finish above 1 of Man United, Chelsea or Wolves. Virtually impossible I'd say, we can't keep playing this poorly and nicking games.

Tinribs · Post by **Tinribs** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:31 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:16 pm
Villa have two very winnable games next - Norwich who they hammered away and Watford who look gone. We have Everton away and United home. Before... Villa!

Don't get too complacent yet!

They had three very winnable games before today

Inchy · Post by **Inchy** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:41 am

We are looking in a good spot but nothing is certain.

Although we are in a better spot than last year I have found the quality of our football painful at times. I understand that’s the Burnley way. Grind out results. But the lack of quality we show at times is really disheartening, and often dull.

I would like us to invest in the summer. No point getting involved in the overinflated Jan window unless a bargain arises

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:46 am

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 22, 2019 3:55 am
or we could sign people in January giving them 6 months in the squad getting used to things in the knowledge we will probably lose Tarks and McNeil in the summer

How much would it cost to replace Tarkowski? Can you see the club spending £15-£20m on a defender in January as a potential replacement for someone who may not even leave? Would you like to see two Ben Gibson’s on the bench?

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:00 am

Tinribs wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:31 am
They had three very winnable games before today

I know

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:03 am

Rileybobs wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:46 am
How much would it cost to replace Tarkowski? Can you see the club spending £15-£20m on a defender in January as a potential replacement for someone who may not even leave? Would you like to see two Ben Gibson’s on the bench?

But if Tarks and McNeil DO leave in summer that's two more players that need replacing and bedding in, on top of the changes we would already need.

The average age of our squad is the highest in the league.

We definitely need at least a new right back and right midfielder. Probably a central midfielder and a replacement for Vydra.

To start doing at least some of that in january would be very sensible. Especially when it means they will be part of the squad and the dyche way before next season even starts.

jrgbfc · Post by **jrgbfc** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:28 am

Very big summer coming up I think with lots of out of contract players and possible interest in Tarks and McNeil. My only worry is if we finish comfortably in mid-table the Board may think they can get away without really strengthening again.

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:38 am

The norm is regarded as being 40 points to stay up. So I am trying to work out where we would get another sixteen points from. Orher than against Man U of course!!!

Stayingup · Post by **Stayingup** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:46 am

Rileybobs wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:35 am
We’re in the top half of the division so we really don’t need to be splashing loads of cash in January. It is evident that the squad we have is good enough to comfortably compete in this league. That said we obviously can’t rest on our laurels, we need to keep building the squad and add players who may not immediately walk into the side but will be capable of stepping up after 6/12 months.

January really isn’t the time to do that. We won’t know which of our soon to be out of contract players need replacing and we also won’t know whether our better players will be poached. If we sold McNeill and Tarkowski for a combined £70m in summer for example that would completely change the picture and our transfer strategy.

I suspect we won’t see much action in January and considering our position in the table I think that would be fairly sensible.

Looking at the points now, 24, you would say the current squad is good enough. But we have nicked a couple of wins, albeit we were robbed of a pount at Leicester, but we have a thin squad and look what happened when we had injuries at Spurs. So we need nunbers but ones who are an improvement on what we have now. Not easy.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:50 am

Stayingup wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:38 am
The norm is regarded as being 40 points to stay up. So I am trying to work out where we would get another sixteen points from. Orher than against Man U of course!!!

The 40 points benchmark is ancient history, mate. a team staying up hasnt needed that many
for quite a few seasons now. 35\36 will be plenty.

Looks like Watford and Norwich will be hard pushed to get 30.

Relax.

Helmshore Claret · Post by **Helmshore Claret** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:07 am

Great win yesterday, continuing our wonderful record against sides either around or below us in the table (Sheffield Utd & Palace the only blips) . Last year at this stage(12pts) but by by 5pm on 12th Jan we had 21pts; so just a note of caution that any side can go on a run. UTC.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:28 am

Draw the next 2 and beat Villa and I think we can relax a bit. I don't see us bringing in any first team starters in jan or maybe even in the summer. We have priced ourselves out of the market now. What worries me is that we appear to have stopped signing young and promising players like Pope, Tarks, Gray, Taylor etc. Interested to see how our current crop of kids develop.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:29 am

Draw the next 2 and beat Villa and I think we can relax a bit. I don't see us bringing in any first team starters in jan or maybe even in the summer. We have priced ourselves out of the market now. What worries me is that we appear to have stopped signing young and promising players like Pope, Tarks, Gray, Taylor etc. Interested to see how our current crop of kids develop.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:30 am

Draw the next 2 and beat Villa and I think we can relax a bit. I don't see us bringing in any first team starters in jan or maybe even in the summer. We have priced ourselves out of the market now. What worries me is that we appear to have stopped signing young and promising players like Pope, Tarks, Gray, Taylor etc. Interested to see how our current crop of kids develop.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:30 am

Draw the next 2 and beat Villa and I think we can relax a bit. I don't see us bringing in any first team starters in jan or maybe even in the summer. We have priced ourselves out of the market now. What worries me is that we appear to have stopped signing young and promising players like Pope, Tarks, Gray, Taylor etc. Interested to see how our current crop of kids develop.

claretblue · Post by **claretblue** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:45 am

Stayingup wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:46 am
But we have nicked a couple of wins, albeit we were robbed of a pount at Leicester

and two against Wolves!

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Sun Dec 22, 2019 12:19 pm

Not sure about Watford. They've got a good manager and a good bunch of players - I can see them recovering.

Southampton are inconsistent and vulnerable. Bournemouth too if their injuries persist.

I'm not totally convinced of Brighton and who knows what West Ham will do.

What about a south coast treble!