How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

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Longside4evr
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How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Longside4evr » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:33 am

I really think it could be one of them mad season's where Blackpool went down with 45

Dont be deluded in thinking 40 is safety this one as the bottom clubs have had a new lease of life

Teams down there are regularly beating teams who usually cement top six
Bournemouth Watford Southampton Norwich
Have all registered very good wins against the big six

We are in for a very difficult January month and all though it looks bad on paper i think we will spring a surprise or two

But i stay by my ready reckoning that its going to be an above the 40 mark for 17th place UTC

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:40 am

I think you could be right re 40 points.

Liverpool have all but won the league. While they probably wont get complacent others will. At the half way stage city have already lost 5. Spurs 6 and Chelsea 7.

You may expect sheff utd to go on a bad run but they should reach 40. But sides will see them as catchable.

We only need 5 wins you would think. But 5 wins is a big ask. Especially when we need to go to old trafford, the etihad, stamford bridge, anfield etc

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by NL Claret » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:40 am

45 points and got relegated? Seriously?
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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:42 am

Agree 45 is almost impossible i imagine. But cluld see it being 40.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by LeadBelly » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:45 am

37/38 will probably survive this season as per usual.
The third bottom club (which is what you have to beat to stay up) over past run of years (going backward in time) has been:
Cardiff 34
Swansea 33
Hull 34
Newcastle 37
Hull 35
Norwich 33
Wigan 36
Bolton 36

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by tarkys_ears » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:50 am

Less points at the top = more at the bottom (unless theres a massive amount of draws)

I reckon it'll be closer to 40 than 30

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Longside4evr » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:54 am

My bad just checked it was 40 points safty mark when Blackpool had their season in the sun
But i feel it could turn out to be a record number total
Not that tthe league is strong this time completely the reverse and as Phil Esterhaus
Would say "Let's be careful out there".

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Bosscat » Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:05 am

Longside4evr wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:33 am
I really think it could be one of them mad season's where Blackpool went down with 45

Dont be deluded in thinking 40 is safety this one as the bottom clubs have had a new lease of life

Teams down there are regularly beating teams who usually cement top six
Bournemouth Watford Southampton Norwich
Have all registered very good wins against the big six

We are in for a very difficult January month and all though it looks bad on paper i think we will spring a surprise or two

But i stay by my ready reckoning that its going to be an above the 40 mark for 17th place UTC
Blackpool were relegated with 39 points m8...

2010-11 Premier League Blackpool 19th, 39 points (relegated by a point)

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by tiger76 » Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:25 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:40 am
I think you could be right re 40 points.

Liverpool have all but won the league. While they probably wont get complacent others will. At the half way stage city have already lost 5. Spurs 6 and Chelsea 7.

You may expect sheff utd to go on a bad run but they should reach 40. But sides will see them as catchable.

We only need 5 wins you would think. But 5 wins is a big ask. Especially when we need to go to old trafford, the etihad, stamford bridge, anfield etc
We''ve also got Villa,Arsenal,Bournemouth,Spurs,Watford,Sheff Utd,Wolves & Brighton at home,a fair chace of at least 4 wins and a couple of draws in that lot,and we're capable of getting results at places like Newcastle & West Ham,win the Villa game and we'll be well on the way to safety.

I can't see Norwich getting anywhere near 40 points,Watford could well get on a roll under Pearson,but Bournemouth are really struggling and are ravaged by injuries,and who knows what impact for good or ill the Moyes appointment will have on West Ham.

If we can win the 6-pointers we'll be fine,and our record so far this season suggests we''ll have enough nous to garner the points required.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by ElectroClaret » Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:34 am

LeadBelly wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:45 am
37/38 will probably survive this season as per usual.
This.
We have this debate every season, and the points required are always over-estimated.

This season'll be no different.

Relax. 8-)
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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:05 pm

Without being 'deluded', I can see 38 being enough.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Longside4evr » Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:12 pm

Bosscat wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:05 am
Blackpool were relegated with 39 points m8...

2010-11 Premier League Blackpool 19th, 39 points (relegated by a point)
Beat you to the pull !
If you care to read thither up the tread :-)
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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Bosscat » Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:28 pm

Longside4evr wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:12 pm
Beat you to the pull !
If you care to read thither up the tread :-)
Sorry m8 it was the strange English "bad" "safty"
Longside4evr wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:54 am
My bad just checked it was 40 points safty mark when Blackpool had their season in the sun
But i feel it could turn out to be a record number total
Not that tthe league is strong this time completely the reverse and as Phil Esterhaus
Would say "Let's be careful out there".
That made me miss it "thither up the tread"
;) :lol: :lol: :lol: ;)

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by KateR » Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:59 pm

37 and then you're safe IMO

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by gawthorpe_view » Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:03 pm

West Ham went down with 42 points in 2003.
Just sayin' like.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Bosscat » Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:07 pm

gawthorpe_view wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:03 pm
West Ham went down with 42 points in 2003.
Just sayin' like.
Most points in a season while being relegated:
42 games: 49 pts, Crystal Palace (1992–93)
38 games: 42 pts, West Ham United (2002–03)

Fewest points in a season while avoiding relegation: 34 pts, West Bromwich Albion (2004–05)
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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Longside4evr » Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:00 pm

Bosscat wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:28 pm
Sorry m8 it was the strange English "bad" "safty"


That made me miss it "thither up the tread"
;) :lol: :lol: :lol: ;)
Well it is New Years Eve lol
Wait till later it might read Noblot ;)
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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Helmshore Claret » Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:28 pm

Longside4evr wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:54 am
My bad just checked it was 40 points safty mark when Blackpool had their season in the sun
But i feel it could turn out to be a record number total
Not that tthe league is strong this time completely the reverse and as Phil Esterhaus
Would say "Let's be careful out there".
Or from the same show, only a little later, 'Let's do it to them before they do it to us'.
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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by exilecanada » Tue Dec 31, 2019 7:01 pm

40 will be the absolute minimum requirement this season,and........if we don't pick up 3 tomorrow, the decent first half could go south in an awful hurry. One has to think Norwich are toast, the other two occupants are a crap shoot.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Bigvince » Tue Dec 31, 2019 8:19 pm

At the halfway stage Aston Villa are on 18 points, if they have the same second half of the season that’s 36 points, add a win to that and you’ve 39 points, don’t think that’ll be far of the mark!

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Bigvince » Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:18 pm

Bigvince wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 8:19 pm
At the halfway stage Aston Villa are on 18 points, if they have the same second half of the season that’s 36 points, add a win to that and you’ve 39 points, don’t think that’ll be far of the mark!
Oops one past halfway stage!

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by LeadBelly » Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:41 pm

Yeah Villa have 18 points from 20 games (10 home, 10 away) so 0.9 points per game on average (in fact 1.4 pts av from home games, 0.4 pts av from away games).
Extrapolating the pattern..... 34 points (34.2 mathematically) for the full season. They need to get better; if they lose tomorrow (and with McGinn injured) they are well up against it.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by AndrewJB » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:01 pm

Big game then.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Vegas Claret » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:56 pm

41

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by dsr » Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:51 am

exilecanada wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 7:01 pm
40 will be the absolute minimum requirement this season,and........if we don't pick up 3 tomorrow, the decent first half could go south in an awful hurry. One has to think Norwich are toast, the other two occupants are a crap shoot.
Unlikely. When Blackpool needed 40 points to stay up, and got only 39, the top six finished with total 410 points from 228 games. This year the top 6 have 234 points from 119 games so far, on schedule for 448. That's 38 extra points that the bottom 14 clubs won't get; 2.7 points per game.

The bottom 3 finished with 111 points in 114 games; so far this season, the bottom 3 have 47 points in 60 games, on schedule for 89. That's an extra 22 points that the clubs above them have available for share out - 1.3 points per club.

So all in all, if the season carries on as it is now, the relegation zone will be 4 points lower than in 2010-11. That is, 36 points. Pretty much as usual.

(If the top 6 get only 1.61 points per game for the rest of the season compared with the 1.97 they are getting now, and the bottom 3 get 1.19 points per game compared with the 0.78 they are getting so far, then the conditions may be similar to Blackpool's year and the points tally wiil be around 40 again. The summary point being that the relegation target was so high that time because there were no rubbish teams at the bottom, and the top teams were droppping loads more points than they are this year.)
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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Longside4evr » Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:05 pm

LeadBelly wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:41 pm
Yeah Villa have 18 points from 20 games (10 home, 10 away) so 0.9 points per game on average (in fact 1.4 pts av from home games, 0.4 pts av from away games).
Extrapolating the pattern..... 34 points (34.2 mathematically) for the full season. They need to get better; if they lose tomorrow (and with McGinn injured) they are well up against it.
thats shot up now pal reap what you sow but we are right in it now long month a head

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Spijed » Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:13 pm

LeadBelly wrote:
Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:45 am
37/38 will probably survive this season as per usual.
The third bottom club (which is what you have to beat to stay up) over past run of years (going backward in time) has been:
Cardiff 34
Swansea 33
Hull 34
Newcastle 37
Hull 35
Norwich 33
Wigan 36
Bolton 36
As a comparison after 22 games (currently 21 points) the team in 18th had (points in brackets on right hand side):

Cardiff 34 - (18)
Swansea 33 - (20)
Hull 34 - (16)
Newcastle 37 - (21)
Hull 35 - (19)
Norwich 33 - (18)
Wigan 36 - (19)
Bolton 36 - (18)

So it looks likes it'll be 36-38 points required to stop up.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Spijed » Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:18 pm

A further comparison after 26 games (currently 24 points) the team in 18th had (points in brackets on right hand side):

Cardiff 34 - (24)
Swansea 33 - (24)
Hull 34 - (22)
Newcastle 37 - (24)
Hull 35 - (22)
Norwich 33 - (24)
Wigan 36 - (23)
Bolton 36 - (21)

It certainly looks like we'll need just another five or six points to stop up, certainly no more than seven. If we are lucky, just another win might do it.

Time to put the feet up and enjoy our forthcoming fifth consecutive season in the Premier league! ;)

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by aggi » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:20 pm

I imagine that ~ 38 will be fine again this year.

However you slice it, looking at form over the season or recent form there's nothing to suggest that it's going to be an unusually high total.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by jurek » Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:52 pm

Most teams have 13 games to play whilst 4 below us have 12
(Bournemouth, Palace, Brighton and Watford)
So that's either 39 points or 36 points up for grabs.
It's not impossible that a few of those teams will pick up
an average of a point a game (possibly more) but it's highly unlikely
that all 4 of those with 12 to play will do so.
Especially that many of them have to play each other or have a lot of top teams still to play.

However third from bottom may get 38 points
so by my reckoning 39 points may be enough to stay up.
That means we need another 8.

If we can't get another 8 then we will probably deserve to go down.
2 win and 2 draws should get us there.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by andyh » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:47 pm

I was just thinking the same 39 would be my guess at safety. 38 and good goal difference is cutting it too fine :-)

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Spijed » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:55 pm

With the relegated teams from previous seasons a further comparison after 30 games (currently 27 points). The team at the time in 18th had (points in brackets on right hand side):

Basically, we have virtually ZERO CHANCE of getting relegated with 39 points

After 30 matches:

Cardiff 34 - (28)
Swansea 33 - (27)
Hull 34 - (27)
Newcastle 37 - (26)
Hull 35 - (25)
Norwich 33 - (25)
Wigan 36 - (27)
Bolton 36 - (25)
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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by tiger76 » Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:01 pm

Spijed wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:55 pm
With the relegated teams from previous seasons a further comparison after 30 games (currently 27 points). The team at the time in 18th had (points in brackets on right hand side):

Basically, we have virtually ZERO CHANCE of getting relegated with 39 points

After 30 matches:

Cardiff 34 - (28)
Swansea 33 - (27)
Hull 34 - (27)
Newcastle 37 - (26)
Hull 35 - (25)
Norwich 33 - (25)
Wigan 36 - (27)
Bolton 36 - (25)
Glad you cleared that up Spijed, and let's be honest despite all the hullabaloo, does anyone really think we won't collect another point in our last 8 games.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:03 pm

We'll grab a few more points and I think finish on around 45.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by ElectroClaret » Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:45 pm

We're perfectly safe now, though we'll pick up a few more points.

Norwich are gone and in neither this or any other universe are Villa or Bournemouth going to reach 39 points.
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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Paul Waine » Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:47 pm

Commentators at w/end were saying 36 points required to avoid relegation this season.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by KateR » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:14 pm

said 37 and you're safe in Dec, am sticking with that.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by claretonthecoast1882 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:34 am

Probably time to pick after how many games next season will someone panic and claim 40 points won't be enough this time

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by agreenwood » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:45 am

We won’t go down, but with all that’s going on at the club I wouldn’t be surprised to see us finish in 15th or 16th.

Hard to see what’s left of the squad picking up many points. With a game every 3-4 days and our opposition having far more quality on their benches, it’s going to be a struggle.
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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by evensteadiereddie » Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:13 am

It is. I'm not particularly fussed about the number of points we get, we're safe as houses but I am concerned that recent events might make us lose sight of what we're good at.
We need decent performances, irrespective of the results, showing we've plenty to build on for next season.
The last thing we need is some sluggish, half-assed attempt at finishing the season just to get it over with.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by tiger76 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:06 pm

ElectroClaret wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:45 pm
We're perfectly safe now, though we'll pick up a few more points.

Norwich are gone and in neither this or any other universe are Villa or Bournemouth going to reach 39 points.
You can add West Ham to that list EC, it'd be such a shame if the dodgy porn barons, and their taxpayer-funded stadium ended up slumming it in the Championship wouldn't it, well no actually it wouldn't it would be hilarious.

Think Brighton & Watford have enough to stay up, so counting Norwich as gone, it's between Bournemouth, Villa & West Ham, and the latter 2 meet on the last day, so it could well be winner takes all.

Although we're safe it would be good to finish with a flourish and get the maximum amount of points we can, to put our season into perspective, we're almost certain to secure our 2nd highest ever PL points total, and we're likely to achieve our 2nd highest PL placing as well, which considering we were on the verge of the relegation zone in mid-January isn't too shabby.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by UnderSeige » Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:12 pm

Burnley are safe this season. The five bottom clubs are averaging less than a point a game. 35 or 36 points should do it. Possibly 38 or 39 if things do go topsy turvey.

Also there are six clubs between Burnley and the relegation zone. That means, in order for Burnley to go down seven clubs would need to do better than them. Two of those clubs would need to get at least 12 points from the remaining games whilst Burnley lose all of theirs. Some of the seven clubs have also played less games than Burnley.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by Spijed » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:12 pm

Spijed wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:55 pm
With the relegated teams from previous seasons a further comparison after 30 games (currently 27 points). The team at the time in 18th had (points in brackets on right hand side):

Basically, we have virtually ZERO CHANCE of getting relegated with 39 points

After 30 matches:

Cardiff 34 - (28)
Swansea 33 - (27)
Hull 34 - (27)
Newcastle 37 - (26)
Hull 35 - (25)
Norwich 33 - (25)
Wigan 36 - (27)
Bolton 36 - (25)
Now the bottom four have played 31 games it's looking like 35 points might just be enough to survive:

Cardiff 34 - (28)
Swansea 33 - (28)
Hull 34 - (28)
Newcastle 37 - (27)
Hull 35 - (26)

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by ClaretTony » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:22 pm

I walked off the Bournemouth game back in Feb. By then we'd reached 37 and I said that should do it.

Difficult to gauge with last season because of Fulham and Huddersfield getting nowhere near but I can't see many if any of that bottom five getting near our current points total. I'd say at absolute worst we will finish 15th.

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Re: How Many Points This Season Will Be Needed

Post by tiger76 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:37 pm

We'll be fine, but it would be nice to win tomorrow, and guarantee another season of PL football at TM, also we don't want to switch off just because we're safe, the gaffer needs to keep them honest, and set them targets to keep them sharp, Europe's looking a long shot now, but 50 points,and a top 10 finish is within our capabilities, especially if tomorrow yields 3 points, that'd only be a point a game for the last 7 games, and we're more than capable of achieving that, the injuries and ooc situation doesn't help, but that's been resolved now, so we need to kick on in these last 8 games.

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