The points we need to stay up

[ClaretMov]

I keep reading we need 4 wins to stay up, this might be okay with a minimum of two draws also, making our final total 38 points. But where are these minimum 14 points coming from out of the games we have left.

I think it will be very very tight and could go to the last game of the season.

Chelsea A - L
Leicester City H - D
Manchester United A - L
Arsenal H- L
Southampton A - L
AFC Bournemouth H - W
Newcastle United A - L
Tottenham Hotspur H - L
Manchester City A - L
Watford H - W
Crystal Palace A - L
Sheffield United H - D
West Ham United A - L
Liverpool A - L
Wolves H - L
Norwich City A - W
Brighton & Hove H - W

[tim_noone]

Cant believe you think Liverpool will beat us at Anfield...are you being serious?

[ClaretMov]

Cant believe you think Liverpool will beat us at Anfield...are you being serious?

[Steve1956]

Cant believe you think Liverpool will beat us at Anfield...are you being serious?

They could have the league wrapped up by then and be going for the Champions League again,they might play all those kids they did against Villa in the cup...........















And still beat us

[tim_noone]

They could have the league wrapped up by then and be going for the Champions League again,they might play all those kids they did against Villa in the cup...........















And still beat us

You were doing so well there.....

[Steve1956]

You were doing so well there.....

[ElectroClaret]

I can't believe we'll get a point from the home game with Leicester, according to the OP. They're totally on fire.

Hope it comes to pass, like, but can't see it.

[houseboy]

I keep reading we need 4 wins to stay up, this might be okay with a minimum of two draws also, making our final total 38 points. But where are these minimum 14 points coming from out of the games we have left.

I think it will be very very tight and could go to the last game of the season.

Chelsea A - L
Leicester City H - D
Manchester United A - L
Arsenal H- L
Southampton A - L
AFC Bournemouth H - W
Newcastle United A - L
Tottenham Hotspur H - L
Manchester City A - L
Watford H - W
Crystal Palace A - L
Sheffield United H - D
West Ham United A - L
Liverpool A - L
Wolves H - L
Norwich City A - W
Brighton & Hove H - W

So that is 14 points. That would give us 38 but the way the season is panning out it could be nearer 40 for safety this season so very tight indeed, and your 14 points includes a home draw against Leicester (I'll have a glass of what you're on) and 2 away wins on the bounce at Norwich and Brighton (when did we last win two on the bounce away?). I reckon we can knock 4 points off that total. Having said that I do think we could get something away to Newcastle and/or West Ham and at home to Wolves so 14 might be possible but still not convinced it will be enough.

[TVC15]

Plus we are probably going to be playing a very different Watford team. They are flying under the new manager and beaten very comfortably United and Villa who easily beat us and also beat Wolves one of the best sides in the division.
Norwich at home are not a bad side - hopefully they may be down by then.

I think it’s going to be very tough for us to stay up now but the only really predictable thing about the remaining fixtures is that they will throw up freak results and not go as everyone thinks they will - we just have to hope we are on the right side of this and get a bit of luck.
Bournemouth are in the middle of a terrible run of form and the middle of this they beat Chelsea away when half of Howe’s team were injured - that’s the kind of thing we need to do to get us out of the trouble we are now in.

[ClaretEngineer]

I can't believe we'll get a point from the home game with Leicester, according to the OP. They're totally on fire.

Hope it comes to pass, like, but can't see it.

Me either. Their pace and power will punish us if we playing anything like we did over the last few games.

Plus it’ll be unbearable in my house if Leicester win...

[FCBurnley]

Pretty sure before yesterday you would have shown Villa H W............I certainly would have !!!!

[Cheshireclaret]

As has been the case every season since we’ve been in The Premier League, there will be games we expect to win (yesterday, arguably Palace at home this season) but lose or draw, and those we expect to get beaten in where we end up getting points (not so sure we’ve had that game so far this season, but last season look at Spurs at home, Chelsea and United away; the season before that there were many and so on).

Whatever the case may be, reacting after yesterday’s performance as if that is that and we’re doomed is the same as many on here reacted last season when we lost on Boxing Day to Everton, or even when ten man Leicester beat us 2-1. We have done it before and can do it again.

This is not blind faith, it’s an optimism and no matter how down I feel after yesterday’s result, it was a Premier League game for my team. I’ll enjoy it as long as it lasts.

UTC!

[houseboy]

Plus we are probably going to be playing a very different Watford team. They are flying under the new manager and beaten very comfortably United and Villa who easily beat us and also beat Wolves one of the best sides in the division.
Norwich at home are not a bad side - hopefully they may be down by then.

I think it’s going to be very tough for us to stay up now but the only really predictable thing about the remaining fixtures is that they will throw up freak results and not go as everyone thinks they will - we just have to hope we are on the right side of this and get a bit of luck.
Bournemouth are in the middle of a terrible run of form and the middle of this they beat Chelsea away when half of Howe’s team were injured - that’s the kind of thing we need to do to get us out of the trouble we are now in.

I also thought that about Watford...they are not a bad team and they have now started playing like we know they can. As far as the freak results go we have been successful against big 6 teams in the past but of late we just usually get buried. If we are going to get anything there the best chance may be United where we seem to play better there than we do at home against them. Chelsea away has also seen us gain some success but at the moment the thought of playing them scares me to death. They have been reasonably inconsistent though.
I'd be more confident if it weren't for the last few games and the next 4. There is a potential for us to be at or near the bottom after the next 4 games with confidence shot at and that would be then a major concern for all but the most Claret-eyed optimist.

[Spijed]

I also thought that about Watford...they are not a bad team and they have now started playing like we know they can. As far as the freak results go we have been successful against big 6 teams in the past but of late we just usually get buried. If we are going to get anything there the best chance may be United where we seem to play better there than we do at home against them. Chelsea away has also seen us gain some success but at the moment the thought of playing them scares me to death. They have been reasonably inconsistent though.
I'd be more confident if it weren't for the last few games and the next 4. There is a potential for us to be at or near the bottom after the next 4 games with confidence shot at and that would be then a major concern for all but the most Claret-eyed optimist.

Prior to beating Norwich Villa had taken 4 points from 8 matches and their confidence was completely shot.

No different to us.

[tiger76]

Yesterday's defeat has made the task much harder,but we're still above the relegation zone,and crucially still have our fate in our own hands,that said we'll have to pull an iron or two out of the fire,otherwise it could well go right down to the wire with thiose last 2 games.

[Espia]

The OP content of this thread should be bumped back to the top of the MB just before the last game of the season. I'll bet there's less than 50% accuracy in those predictions.

[ClaretMov]

I bet mine are around the 70% correct mark

[Hopey1786]

More Ws than youd expect

[SGr]

Can’t see a point at home to Leicester. Maybe I’ve just got last year in mind but there’s also the fact we offer absolutely nothing against any top six/seven side, regardless of their form or performance on the day

[Vegas Claret]

hope it doesn't go to the last day, imagine being relegated by Brighton

[Longsidebogs]

It’s the hope that kills ya! We haven’t got a bloody prayer.

[Spijed]

It’s the hope that kills ya! We haven’t got a bloody prayer.

If we haven't got a prayer then odds of 9/2 will be like printing money then!

[HieronymousBoschHobs]

The same list with homes games underlined and games against non-top 6 sides and Arsenal (i.e. games where we might hope to pick up points) in bold:

Chelsea A
Leicester City H
Manchester United A
Arsenal H
Southampton A
AFC Bournemouth H
Newcastle United A
Tottenham Hotspur H
Manchester City A
Watford H
Crystal Palace A
Sheffield United H
West Ham United A
Liverpool A
Wolves H
Norwich City A
Brighton & Hove H

[houseboy]

Prior to beating Norwich Villa had taken 4 points from 8 matches and their confidence was completely shot.

No different to us.

True but then they have just beaten us quite easilly at home.

[jurek]

I think 38 points might just suffice but ideally a few more
which means in my view we'll need to get at least 4 wins, if not 5
and then 2-4 draws.

The teams below are the ones where we might stand a chance of getting something from.
Out of 17 remaining games the 10 below are where there may be a good chance of points.
The rest of the games I've discounted.

Southampton A -1
AFC Bournemouth H- 3
Newcastle United A -1
Watford H -3
Crystal Palace A -1
Sheffield United H -3
West Ham United A - 1
Wolves H -1
Norwich City A - 3
Brighton & Hove H -3

Ideally we'd win 5 and draw 5 giving us a total of 44 points which
barring more than decent runs from say Villa and Watford should be safe.

It's never that simple I know. I could see us losing a few of those.

[Spijed]

I think 38 points might just suffice but ideally a few more
which means in my view we'll need to get at least 4 wins, if not 5
and then 2-4 draws.

The teams below are the ones where we might stand a chance of getting something from.
Out of 17 remaining games the 10 below are where there may be a good chance of points.
The rest of the games I've discounted.

Southampton A -1
AFC Bournemouth H- 3
Newcastle United A -1
Watford H -3
Crystal Palace A -1
Sheffield United H -3
West Ham United A - 1
Wolves H -1
Norwich City A - 3
Brighton & Hove H -3

Ideally we'd win 5 and draw 5 giving us a total of 44 points which
barring more than decent runs from say Villa and Watford should be safe.

It's never that simple I know. I could see us losing a few of those.

Poor as we are against the so called big six teams (seven if Leicester are now included), you'd expect us to pick up at least the odd point against them.

[Spijed]

Interesting looking at the form guide as well.

Quite a few other teams are struggling for points.

[Spijed]

This weekends fixtures for our rivals:

Sheff U v West Ham
Villa v Man City
Everton v Brighton
Bournemouth v Watford
Man United v Norwich
Wolves v Newcastle

Hopefully wins for Man City, Everton, Man U & Wolves

[ClaretMov]

So that is 14 points. That would give us 38 but the way the season is panning out it could be nearer 40 for safety this season so very tight indeed, and your 14 points includes a home draw against Leicester (I'll have a glass of what you're on) and 2 away wins on the bounce at Norwich and Brighton (when did we last win two on the bounce away?). I reckon we can knock 4 points off that total. Having said that I do think we could get something away to Newcastle and/or West Ham and at home to Wolves so 14 might be possible but still not convinced it will be enough.

Houseboy would you like me to pour you one

[houseboy]

Houseboy would you like me to pour you one

Touche as they say. At the time of me writing that I would back up what I said but Leicester have gone on a very bad run and yesterday they looked short of confidence, thankfully. Vardy's penalty said it all I think, Pope did brilliantly and you can't take away that but it was an awful penalty and Vardy knew it.
Anyway I am totally glad to say I WAS WRONG. And I hope to be again very soon.

[Jakubs Tash]

Houseboy would you like me to pour you one

You're taking credit for a prediction that you actually got wrong?

[mdd2]

It is interesting looking back at our results in this league. This is our second best first 19 games re points,
2009-10 20 pts and then 10 position 18th
2014-15 16 points and then 17 position 19th
2016-17 23 points and then 17 position 16th
2017-18 32 pts and then 22 position 7th
2018-19 12pts and then 28 position 15th
2019-20 24pts and then ???
And yet more doom and gloom than ever on this board-not posted but me included
I do think it will take a pretty good points total (on a historical basis) to get to 17th spot after 38 games this season

[Bosscat]

9 points from our last 7 games.... Sean Dyche makes a very good point in his post Leicester match interview...

15 games to go... that makes 19 more points if we keep up that average... giving us 46 points for the season.

OK that is a simplistic view, but it is also a realistic view looking at our remaining fixtures...

We can lose 8 games win 6 and draw 1 ... nowt different to the rest of the season tbh.

Get behind the lads ffs all you doom mongers

UTC

[FactualFrank]

Like I said on another thread, Watford have 23 points after 23 games and are 17th. If West Ham lose their game in hand, they too will have an average of 1 point per game. I'm not seeing much from Bournemouth, Norwich and Villa to suggest they are going to go on a good run to make us need more than 38 points.

[Hibsclaret]

The issue is every time we have a bad run the flappers start flapping....we can beat pretty much every team (bar Liverpool and perhaps City) on our day. We can also lose to anyone on a given day.

Wouldn’t surprise me if we win against Man U and Arsenal and then lost to Bournemouth and the Geordies. Said it before and will say it again - we won’t go down with this manager....also, I reckon we will have a good cup run this season.....

[summitclaret]

Pretty sure WHU's game in hand is v Liverpool.

Yesterday was massive and as I hoped the fans played their part. I think we can stay up due to our experience, but we really need to address cm. To have no sub option is poor.

[Goobs]

Pretty sure WHU's game in hand is v Liverpool.

Yesterday was massive and as I hoped the fans played their part. I think we can stay up due to our experience, but we really need to address cm. To have no sub option is poor.

We do have a sub option for CM. The option is to move Jeff inside and bring on a winger or if we are losing take off one CM and throw on a forward to go 4-3-3.

We have options available throughout the squad although given SD's preference for 4-4-2 I would prefer to see another CM brought in to bolster the options there.

[summitclaret]

We do have a sub option for CM. The option is to move Jeff inside and bring on a winger or if we are losing take off one CM and throw on a forward to go 4-3-3.

We have options available throughout the squad although given SD's preference for 4-4-2 I would prefer to see another CM brought in to bolster the options there.

I meant fresh legs like everyone else can do accept us. If we go past this window with only 3 for cm we are taking a massive risk. It should have been addressed with a permanent signing last summer at the latest.

[superdimitri]

Past two results show why predictions are pointless. 3 points is 3 points. Doesn't matter who it comes against and any fixture's winnable.

[ClaretMov]

Just brought this subject back to life lol

Wow how thing's changed

[FactualFrank]

Just brought this subject back to life lol

Wow how thing's changed

Indeed!... at least I got the bottom 3 correct.

Like I said on another thread, Watford have 23 points after 23 games and are 17th. If West Ham lose their game in hand, they too will have an average of 1 point per game. I'm not seeing much from Bournemouth, Norwich and Villa to suggest they are going to go on a good run to make us need more than 38 points.

[FCBurnley]

Amazing that we were all talking about hopefully staying up with 38 points !!! What a turn around

[ClaretMov]

Amazing that we were all talking about hopefully staying up with 38 points !!! What a turn around

An amazing turn around I for one never saw us getting 50+ points and so many away wins and clean sheets, team and manager of the year for the budget we have.