We have been building for the championship for a few season's

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ClaretMov
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We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by ClaretMov » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:16 pm

Cracking team for next season :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

...................Hart

Bardsley...Gibson...Mee...Pieters

Johann...Westwood...Cork...Brady

.........Barnes........Jay Rod.............

Pope - sold
Tarkowski - sold
Taylor - sold
McNeil - sold
Wood - sold
Wells - Given away for free to QPR
Vydra - sold

A nice 100 million in the bank and a few cheap players brought in for cover, the board will be happy.

We could go on another 23 undefeated run :P

Burnley1989
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Burnley1989 » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:19 pm

I’d say 3-4 players tops would leave

Leisure
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Leisure » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:23 pm

Wrong. We've been building just incase we are in the Championship next season. It's called forward planning!

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by levraiclaret » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:24 pm

How many seasons?

dsr
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by dsr » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:25 pm

I really dislike people who don't know the club, don't like the club, have no knowledge whatsoever about what happened last time we got relegated, and are basically just trolls looking for reaction.
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by ClaretMov » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:43 pm

dsr wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:25 pm
I really dislike people who don't know the club, don't like the club, have no knowledge whatsoever about what happened last time we got relegated, and are basically just trolls looking for reaction.


I really dislike people who see everything through claret tinted glasses
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Hopey1786 » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:45 pm

Nobody would leave

Leisure
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Leisure » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:45 pm

ClaretMov wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:43 pm
I really dislike people who see everything through claret tinted glasses
It’s what supporters do.
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Quickenthetempo
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Quickenthetempo » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:53 pm

Just how good would McNeil be in the championship if we kept him though.

He would run rings around most teams.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by tim_noone » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:01 pm

I'm ok with Tottenham with all their millions gaining just 4 points more than us since they spanked us.im also ok despite their millions with Arsenal only being 4 points in front of us also. As for West ham and all their millions they're 2 points behind us with 3 or 4 tough games coming up! That's also ok. UTC! It's not over till the Fat Lady sings.
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Woodleyclaret » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:25 pm

Why are we putting out a reserve side there?

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Iloveyoubrady » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:26 pm

ClaretMov wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:16 pm
Cracking team for next season :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

...................Hart

Bardsley...Gibson...Mee...Pieters

Johann...Westwood...Cork...Brady

.........Barnes........Jay Rod.............

Pope - sold
Tarkowski - sold
Taylor - sold
McNeil - sold
Wood - sold
Wells - Given away for free to QPR
Vydra - sold

A nice 100 million in the bank and a few cheap players brought in for cover, the board will be happy.

We could go on another 23 undefeated run :P
To be fair, that team with wood instead of barnes could tear up the championship.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Goobs » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:38 pm

What an interesting thread. Completely irrelevant as we ain't going down, but interesting none the less.
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by tiger76 » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:47 pm

I stopped reading once i saw Joe Hart as our keeper,firstly i can't imagine him playing in the Championship,secondly he's ooc in a few months and will likely go abroad again.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by gandhisflipflop » Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:59 pm

Leisure wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:23 pm
Wrong. We've been building just incase we are in the Championship next season. It's called forward planning!
How is planning to go backwards considered 'forward planning'? Surely it would be a contingency plan.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Pstotto » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:38 pm

For a few season's what?

Rest?

Nope.

Try again... :-)

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by houseboy » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:46 pm

Leisure wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:23 pm
Wrong. We've been building just incase we are in the Championship next season. It's called forward planning!
Can you 'forward plan' to go backwards? Mmm! I think it's called contingency planning. :D :D

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by houseboy » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:48 pm

dsr wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:25 pm
I really dislike people who don't know the club, don't like the club, have no knowledge whatsoever about what happened last time we got relegated, and are basically just trolls looking for reaction.
It's called 'discussion' I think bud. It's not life or death (unless you're Bill Shankly). ;)

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by houseboy » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:49 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:53 pm
Just how good would McNeil be in the championship if we kept him though.

He would run rings around most teams.
Or get kicked to death. Hope not though.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Buxtonclaret » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:50 pm

Goobs wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:38 pm
What an interesting thread. Completely irrelevant as we ain't going down, but interesting none the less.

That's the stuff, goobs.
Bloody well tell 'em. :lol:

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by houseboy » Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:53 pm

gandhisflipflop wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:59 pm
How is planning to go backwards considered 'forward planning'? Surely it would be a contingency plan.
Sorry Ghandi, hadn't seen your almost identical post before I posted mine. Still I suppose it proves a point. Great minds think alike (or fools never differ). :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by DomBFC1882 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:07 pm

Most of them nearly qualify for a free bus pass

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Ric_C » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:29 pm

The fans need to take a look at themselves too. Remember this is a team effort, and the last few games we have just sat back demanding to be entertained with the odd "BOO" thrown in.

Great support :roll:

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by ClaretTony » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:31 pm

ClaretMov wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:43 pm
I really dislike people who see everything through claret tinted glasses
He's a supporter rather than someone searching ridiculously for a stick to beat the club with

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Bosscat » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:37 pm

ClaretMov wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:43 pm
I really dislike people who see everything through claret tinted glasses
I find it odd someone would slag off someone for supporting their team ffs....
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by jojomk1 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:46 pm

ClaretTony wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:31 pm
He's a supporter rather than someone searching ridiculously for a stick to beat the club with
Apart from the RIDICULOUS suggestion that Hart will be GK next season :D (replace with BPF), the potential outgoings, if relegation happened, are more than possible and I would even add Mee to that list

Any new contracts signed in the last couple of years will, hopefully, have reduced wages triggered by any relegation

But, by the same token, I would have thought any decent agent would have also had a release clause (in case of relegation) included in the deal

The OP may have thrown in a few sarcastic remarks but the names of potential leavers is pretty accurate

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by SGr » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:55 pm

Can’t see there being too many sales to be honest. Dwight obviously the most likely, Tarkowski maybe.

Weird as it sounds I feel like Taylor will fly under the radar a bit, and I’d like to think we’d demand a relatively large fee as well. Pope too, can’t see him leaving. Ditto Wood.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by jojomk1 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:02 pm

SGr wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:55 pm
Can’t see there being too many sales to be honest. Dwight obviously the most likely, Tarkowski maybe.

Weird as it sounds I feel like Taylor will fly under the radar a bit, and I’d like to think we’d demand a relatively large fee as well. Pope too, can’t see him leaving. Ditto Wood.
SGr
Do you really think any of these guys are going to be happy to take a hefty wage cut without looking elsewhere if given a chance to do so.
If clauses have been agreed then so will the transfer fee - and we know what that was for Trippier

Hopefully it won't come to that scenario

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by jrgbfc » Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:04 pm

I'd say McNeil and Tarks would definitely get a move. Maybe Wood, his goal return playing for a team who barely creates any chances is excellent. I'd be amazed if another Premier league side came in for Ben Mee.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by kentonclaret » Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:11 pm

Whether we stay in the PL or return to the Championship a considerable amount of rebuilding needs to be done if we are to be competitive next season. The Burnley midfield is poor with a miserly goal return and we lack pace throughout the team, even more so with the expected departure of McNeil.

Where is that money going to come from if not player sales?

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by BennyD » Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:16 pm

At least they don’t have f*cking VAR in the Championship so if we do go down, the football will be better to watch.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by jojomk1 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:16 pm

Teams promoted to the Premier League could be interested in Mee as well as teams just avoiding relegation (he has plenty of experience).
Pope would also not want to drop down, for his England prospects.
Taylor will be on the radar for a good number of clubs
Given the lack of investment in first team starters for the last two years, the thought of players such as above potentially leaving show how important these next few months are to the club

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by SGr » Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:41 pm

jojomk1 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:02 pm
SGr
Do you really think any of these guys are going to be happy to take a hefty wage cut without looking elsewhere if given a chance to do so.
If clauses have been agreed then so will the transfer fee - and we know what that was for Trippier

Hopefully it won't come to that scenario
If there are release clauses of the type that Trippier’s contract contained, then fair enough, we are in trouble. If not then yeah, course they may look elsewhere but if teams aren’t actually bidding enough then I’d like to think that’ll be the end of the debate.

After all, Dyche did sign these guys on the premise of being *good lads*, so I’d like to think there wouldn’t be anyone going on strike...

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Long Time Lurker » Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:25 pm

Okay, lets run the numbers ( very rough numbers ).

Last year our turnover was roughly 140m. About 120m of that was from TV rights

Our total staff costs were 81m

Now, obviously, those figures are twisted by our 7th place finish and the bonuses paid to the players and non playing staff. However, I think we can safely assume the ration would be roughly the same given a lower placing in the table. Our turnover would decrease, in line with a lower share of the big Premier League pie, but the bonuses paid out would also decrease.

Now, if we did drop we would receive parachute payments for up to 3 years. 40m in the first year, 35m in the second year and 15m in the third year ( roughly ).

Losing our seat on the gravy train could reduce our turnover to 20m. Adding in the three parachute payments would give us 60m for the first year after the drop, 55m for the second and 35m for the third.

Or to put it another way we would be running at a deficit of about 20m in the first year, 25m in the second year and 45m in the third year. That would equate to a total deficit of 90m over 3 years.

The only way to offset that deficit would be to sell players, bringing in transfer fees and lowering the wage bill. We would find it hard to sell any of the players in our twilight contingent. Even though the cash to buy them would probably be low I doubt that many teams would be hammering on our door to pick up players that have little to no chance of holding their value. Any clubs that were interested would also have to match their current wages, because the players with years left on their contracts wouldn't move for less money. The only team that is chomping at the bit to throw money at twilight players is us, which is probably why we experienced no real competition for the signatures of Jay ( at the knock down price of 10 m ) and Eric.

The most likely outcome is that they would all queue up to poach our younger and more desirable players, leaving us to keep paying the wages of our twilight contingent until their contracts expire.

We don't currently have any youngsters ready to step up and fill the gaps that would arise from any players leaving. If our youngsters were up to playing in the Championship they would already be on loan at Championship clubs. So we could risk it for a biscuit and try to gain automatic promotion or play the longer game and reduce our costs. That would mean selling players, releasing non playing staff and using any left overs from player sales ( after covering the 20m deficit ) to rebuild the team.

How would that turn out ?

Even with our current revenue stream and the lure of Premier League football Rigg is finding it very tough going. Should we drop down to the Championship he would find it even more difficult. Just to put things in perspective we can look at what he did at Fulham.

He joined them immediately after they had been relegated. In his time with them they initiated two massive squad rebuilds and the result of those rebuilds was that they found themselves fighting to avoid relegation to league one for both seasons he was at the helm of their recruitment. Almost all of the money they got from player sales was squandered away on under achievers.

The only flickering financial highlights were the signing of Sone Aluko on a free transfer, who was sold for nearly 7m, and picking up Tom Cairney for £4m.

Even worse than the half asleep pitch performances of the motley crew that were assembled during Riggs two year spell at Fulham was the long term impact of those poor signings. It left them hugely reliant on loaning in players to do the job on the pitch and loaning out a lot of the players that they bought to keep the wage bill respectable.

Fortunately Fulham had a rich owner who could pump a big wedge of cash into the club just to keep them afloat. It was a huge disaster on every single front and if the overall strategy was synonymous with " good business " and protecting the club with a long term vision then those terms might need to be re-defined, because they stood for the exact opposite of their accepted meanings at Fulham.

To put it simply, if we go down we are ******.

The loss of Barnes for who knows how long and dropping back to three midfielders has or should have made the act / not act decision for us. We desperately need to stay up this season to buy us time to get our house in order. If we suffer the drop it will be very painful and the chances are that we will lose a lot of what everyone at the club has worked so hard to build.

Anybody who doesn't think that, and believes relegation to the Championship will be good for us given the state we are currently in, hasn't grasped the full gravity of the financial predicament we might be asked to face and the perilous nature of any rebuild given the current leadership of our recruitment team.

Recklessly throwing money around on players to try and avoid relegation rarely works and it can be very costly. However, we aren't in a position that corresponds with most teams in that situation.

We don't need a couple of new faces to avoid the short term obstacle of relegation.

We need some new players to satisfy a long term need, because we didn't satisfy that need in the last Winter transfer window or the Summer one. It is a simple case of being in a position where we have to do what should have been done already. We can't afford to put off what we needed to do yesterday until tomorrow.

Relegation is simply not an option for us at this moment in time, which is why the players ( each and every last one of them ) needs our full support. I whole heartedly believe the lads can step up to the plate once again and save our skins, despite the fact that the poor performance of our recruitment team in the last year has made their job more difficult than it could have been. I know they have it in them to do that, but I'm more than a little ****** off that we repeatedly ask for no less than 100% from them ( grumbling when they dip below that high standard) and yet we are seem happy to countenance the poor performance ( or do nothing, we go with what we have got performance ) of others.

We can't demand " the minimum expectation is maximum effort " from the players when the recruitment team appears to be working to the mantra of " minimum effort is the maximum expectation ". Increasing the size of the mountain our players have to climb, so that others can relax in base camp and have an easier time of it in the Summer is disrespectful to everything they have contributed so far and it is not the Burnley way.

The Eye of the Tiger, ready to step up to any challenge and face it head on, utter poppycock. It seems we are currently cowering in fear of the insurmountable difficulty of the big scary transfer window. We are losing our way, there was a time when fighting for every inch of ground to get on the right side of " the fine margins " was what we were all about, both on the pitch and off. Sadly, in terms of what I am currently seeing that is looking more like who we used to be and less like who we are now.

The players need to rise up to meet the challenge and perform on the pitch and the recruitment team needs to rise up to the challenges off the pitch and perform in the transfer windows, every ******* transfer window. In this league if we aren't moving forward we are moving backwards and that means embracing every window as an opportunity to improve.

Note: The figures I used in my rough financial breakdown are exactly that. They certainly don't take everything into account, because I wanted to keep it simple.
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by dsr » Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:12 pm

Trippier's release clause was based on a player in the last year of his contract with no Premier League experience. The players named above signed contract extensions with longer remining on the existing contract and with Premier experience behind them; so if there are release clauses, they will be much higher value.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by jojomk1 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:33 pm

dsr wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:12 pm
Trippier's release clause was based on a player in the last year of his contract with no Premier League experience. The players named above signed contract extensions with longer remining on the existing contract and with Premier experience behind them; so if there are release clauses, they will be much higher value.
The point is :-

If we are relegated then the majority of that list will want out

We may get plenty of money for them but, the bottom line is that our recruitment has been pretty poor over the last couple of years.

I still hope/slightly believe that we will stay up but, if we go down, the cash in hand will help to keep us afloat for many years in the Championship

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by LoveCurryPies » Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:23 pm

People who start threads like this have never done anything worth while. Sad f**** who just slag off.

Truth is Burnley being a small town, we should never have made it to the PL. But the owners, manager & staff, and players have committed to achieving the unbelievable.

Yes, we’ve had a difficult run recently and some hard matches ahead. But we are here fighting and personally I think another PL season ahead.

Did anyone say it was going to be easy?
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Leisure » Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:56 pm

Long Time Lurker wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:25 pm
Okay, lets run the numbers ( very rough numbers ).

Last year our turnover was roughly 140m. About 120m of that was from TV rights

Our total staff costs were 81m

Now, obviously, those figures are twisted by our 7th place finish and the bonuses paid to the players and non playing staff. However, I think we can safely assume the ration would be roughly the same given a lower placing in the table. Our turnover would decrease, in line with a lower share of the big Premier League pie, but the bonuses paid out would also decrease.

Now, if we did drop we would receive parachute payments for up to 3 years. 40m in the first year, 35m in the second year and 15m in the third year ( roughly ).

Losing our seat on the gravy train could reduce our turnover to 20m. Adding in the three parachute payments would give us 60m for the first year after the drop, 55m for the second and 35m for the third.

Or to put it another way we would be running at a deficit of about 20m in the first year, 25m in the second year and 45m in the third year. That would equate to a total deficit of 90m over 3 years.

Note: The figures I used in my rough financial breakdown are exactly that. They certainly don't take everything into account, because I wanted to keep it simple
I'm Keen to try to understand just how you have arrived at some of these figures? For example if we were to be relegated I would expect our £81 mill. wage bill to significantly reduce, maybe by up to 50%. That would bring it down to say £40/45 mill. So taking your reduced turnover figure of £20 mill, plus the 1st year's parachute payment of £40 mill, we would have income of around £60 mill. So how do you arrive at a 1st year's loss of £20 mill?

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Wile E Coyote » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:21 am

ClaretMov wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:43 pm
I really dislike people who see everything through claret tinted glasses
if you don't own a pair of those special clarets tinted spectacles, then there's little point in being a fan.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Long Time Lurker » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:42 am

Leisure wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:56 pm
I'm Keen to try to understand just how you have arrived at some of these figures? For example if we were to be relegated I would expect our £81 mill. wage bill to significantly reduce, maybe by up to 50%. That would bring it down to say £40/45 mill. So taking your reduced turnover figure of £20 mill, plus the 1st year's parachute payment of £40 mill, we would have income of around £60 mill. So how do you arrive at a 1st year's loss of £20 mill?
I did say that transfer out, through sales and contracts that aren't renewed, would lower the figure. However, I can't see that reduction being 50% unless our players have signed up to some ludicrous relegation wage reduction clauses.

The situation gets far worse after the first year and my calcuations didn't take into account anything that we might have to spend on new players and a potential decline in sponsorship revenue. Like I said I just put out rought figures and I didn't go into detail or try to hit the nail squarely on the head.

It was just a rough example to illustrate the impact relegation would have on us. More than anything it was an attempt to inject a little bit of reality into the discussion, because I'm fairly sure that quite a few people would leap to the mistaken impression that should we go down we would be awash with cash from parachute payments.

Unfortunately that isn't how relegations play out. Parachute payments exist to give clubs a bit of breathing space while they adjust to having a dramatically lower level of revenue. Without them any club dropping down would probably enter into bankruptcy.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by TVC15 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:11 am

A deficit of £90m over 3 years if we get relegated is tbh a laughable conclusion to reach.
It does not take into account that we would be likely to lose a few our key players - not only losing their high wages but also the significant transfer fees we would receive.
We would also very likely cut back on a lot of our non playing staff.
Our total wage bill is made up of between 20% and 25% in bonus payments which would reduce dramatically in the Championship.
Then we have the very likely existence of relegation clauses in many (if not all) of our contracts.

There is a unanimous consensus amongst all of our fans that during the last 7 years off the pitch we have managed our finances with a high degree of caution - and many argue too much caution.
Why would anyone think that a board that has ran the club like this during a time when we have been receiving £100m plus a year and posting significant profits would suddenly allow the club to run up a debt of £90m over 3 years - or even run up any debt it cannot afford to pay for out of our reserves ?
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by houseboy » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:19 am

jojomk1 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:16 pm
Teams promoted to the Premier League could be interested in Mee as well as teams just avoiding relegation (he has plenty of experience).
Pope would also not want to drop down, for his England prospects.
Taylor will be on the radar for a good number of clubs
Given the lack of investment in first team starters for the last two years, the thought of players such as above potentially leaving show how important these next few months are to the club
I think what people might be missing is the fact that Mee or anyone else could also be the target of another Championship club if the wages are considerably better. Everyone seems to be assuming that if any of our players go it will be to PL clubs, but any Championship club with money (which is quite a few of them) could steal them away if we do go down.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by FactualFrank » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:34 am

Some are also assuming that there is no way that we will stick with the majority of the side we have, with the very realistic chance of us coming back up at the first time of asking.

As mentioned, wages will drop, bonuses will drop and we may sell 1 or 2 for a lot of money. But the majority of players I think would remain, and with that side I'm extremely confident, and I'm sure the board would be too, of returning straight back.

Another thing that some seem to say every single season: "The Championship is harder this season". It remains as competitive as the previous season. As I've said before - take Fulham, Leeds and WBA out of the current Championship and it's distinctively average.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Dyched » Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:52 am

I’m not confident we’d get back.

Last time we’d only been gone a season. Our work horses were essential to what we did. The squad had experience of doing it before. Our graft got us through tough moments. Gray/Ings gave us pace up top. Arfield, Jones, Marney, Barton, Boyd, Ward gave us so much. Massive changes would need to happen.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by houseboy » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:12 am

Dyched wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:52 am
I’m not confident we’d get back.

Last time we’d only been gone a season. Our work horses were essential to what we did. The squad had experience of doing it before. Our graft got us through tough moments. Gray/Ings gave us pace up top. Arfield, Jones, Marney, Barton, Boyd, Ward gave us so much. Massive changes would need to happen.
When you look at those names it makes you realise what a bloody hard working side we had then. Obviously not PL standard but the sheer work ethic and determination of Boyd, Barton, Arfield etc seems to be what is sorely lacking at the moment. What we wouldn't give now for a 'Barton', someone who would actually get mad at players if they aren't pulling their weight. Similarly with Marney, or a Boyd who wouldn't stop running until Dyche told him the game was over.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Long Time Lurker » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:19 am

TVC15 wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:11 am
A deficit of £90m over 3 years if we get relegated is tbh a laughable conclusion to reach.
It does not take into account that we would be likely to lose a few our key players - not only losing their high wages but also the significant transfer fees we would receive.
We would also very likely cut back on a lot of our non playing staff.
Our total wage bill is made up of between 20% and 25% in bonus payments which would reduce dramatically in the Championship.
Then we have the very likely existence of relegation clauses in many (if not all) of our contracts.

There is a unanimous consensus amongst all of our fans that during the last 7 years off the pitch we have managed our finances with a high degree of caution - and many argue too much caution.
Why would anyone think that a board that has ran the club like this during a time when we have been receiving £100m plus a year and posting significant profits would suddenly allow the club to run up a debt of £90m over 3 years - or even run up any debt it cannot afford to pay for out of our reserves ?
I was wondering when you would show up to stick the boot in. Given your delayed appearance I was worried something might have happened to you. I'm glad to see that you are okay and back to taking off the cuff pot shots at me, without doing any research to back them up.

Do you really think people have a choice when it comes to running up debt if their expenditure is high and their income level falls drastically ?

No, the best they can do is engage in damage limitation to stem the flow. If you seriously think that dropping down into the Championship wouldn't have a profoundly negative impact on the club, given our current expenditure levels ( a lot of which we are contractually bound to ), you are living in a dream world.

Since I used Fulham as an earlier example lets look at what happened to them. As an example they make a good case study, because prior to their relegation they had a turnover of 91m and wages of 68m - which is similar to our ratio.

As I said earlier they got lucky, because the contracts of a lot of their high wage earners ended in 2014/2015. By sacking non playing staff, presumably relegation releases and selling players they got their wage bill down to 37m for the 2015 accounting period. They bought a lot of players after relegation and sold a lot of players. This resulted in a trading loss for 2015 and 2016, but they moved into profit and managed to post a positive gain of 17m for 2017. They also received three parachute payments of 41m, 31m and 16m.

Fantastic, didn't they do well, wages down by 50% everything must have been hunkey dorey for them.

Err no

By 2017 their net debt was 62m and that was only after their rich owner had pumped £58m into the club in 2015/16, followed by another £71m in late 2018.

Do you think Garlick can afford to chip in £130m to keep us afloat ?

Granted, Fulhams business plan of funding two massive squad rebuilds which negated profits from sales bordered on fiscal lunacy. I don't for one moment think that we would be that stupid and we would certainly cut a profit on any players that we sold ( although with Rigg at the helm of our recruitment I'm not 100% sure ). Taking into account revenue earned from sales and the cost of replacements we would still be looking at a very dark financial cloud.

Look at the accounts of other clubs that have been relegated. QPR, who were relegated in the season that Rigg was with them dropped down with a wage bill of £75m. They suffered similar financial devastation after their relegations and they only stayed afloat because a rich owner propped them up with cash. Although the impact that relegation had on QPR was compounded by one of the most insane periods of strategic stupidity that the football world has ever seen.

Thankfully, we are a million miles away from the QPR model of how not to do " good business ".

You can read a summary of the Fulham accounts for 12 years here

https://twitter.com/swissramble/status/ ... 2892491776

You can read a summary of the QPR accounts for 10 years here

https://twitter.com/swissramble/status/ ... 57?lang=en

and for a brief summary of the madness that afflicted QPR around the time they tried to stay up 2012/13, dopped down, got back up and dropped again here are a couple of articles

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/footb ... spree.html

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ding-spree

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... relegation

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/foo ... 43000.html

Relegation is bad, very, very bad and while we are prudent our wage bill has gone up and a lot of the transfer money that we have spent has been on players that have or had no holding value. In a lot of respects we have fallen into line with a financial outlook that is dependant on the huge TV revenue we are currently receiving. Take that out of the picture ( no pun intended ) and things will begin to look very bleak very quickly.

One of the biggest problems in football today is the huge disparity between the income levels of Premier League and Championship clubs, which is mainly down to the way the TV money is dished out.

Norwich are currently at the bottom of our league and looking locked on for relegation. But you know what, I admire them for the strategy that they decidided to employ this season. While Villa spent money like water Norwich spent well within their means. They didn't decide to throw their darts at Bully's risky Premier League Board, they banked their cash and if they do go down they will be in a very strong position for a Championship club for quite a few years because of that. Sheffield United also showed considerable restraint in their spending.

I'm not trying to be negative, I'm simply being realistic. Anybody that thinks dropping down to the Championship will be a relatively comfortable cake walk for us is delusional. If you think that we really do have a dry powder store that is overflowing with cash then you need to pull up our last set of accounts and read them carefully. We aren't poor by any means, but we aren't as financially secure in terms of reserves as you seem to think.
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by tim_noone » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:35 am

A Long Post as usual...but always informative LL.and thought provoking.

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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by TVC15 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:54 pm

LL don’t flatter yourself.
If somebody is going to post rubbish that the club could run up debts of £90m in 3 years if we go down and then gives basket case examples like QPR to try and justify that then I’m happy to call them out whether it’s you or anybody else.
The way our owners have run the club in the last 10 years could not be any different to a club like QPR who were happy to give Joey Barton a 4 year contract of £3.5m a year without a relegation clause.
Nobody is saying relegation is good - of course it isn’t. But we have already been relegated 3 times in the last 10 years and we didn’t rack up any debt then...let alone the ridiculous numbers you are talking about.
And talking about how accounts I understand them fine thanks - not sure you do though. How much in reserves / retained profit do you think we hold ? How would you say that compared to Fulham, QPR etc ?
But the main way we will manage our finances is by reducing our wage bill and other operating costs to appropriate levels - just like we have in the past
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by Leisure » Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:06 pm

It's all going to be irrelevant, as were aren't going to be relegated! UTC
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Re: We have been building for the championship for a few season's

Post by tim_noone » Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:31 pm

TVC15 wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:54 pm
LL don’t flatter yourself.
If somebody is going to post rubbish that the club could run up debts of £90m in 3 years if we go down and then gives basket case examples like QPR to try and justify that then I’m happy to call them out whether it’s you or anybody else.
The way our owners have run the club in the last 10 years could not be any different to a club like QPR who were happy to give Joey Barton a 4 year contract of £3.5m a year without a relegation clause.
Nobody is saying relegation is good - of course it isn’t. But we have already been relegated 3 times in the last 10 years and we didn’t rack up any debt then...let alone the ridiculous numbers you are talking about.
And talking about how accounts I understand them fine thanks - not sure you do though. How much in reserves / retained profit do you think we hold ? How would you say that compared to Fulham, QPR etc ?
But the main way we will manage our finances is by reducing our wage bill and other operating costs to appropriate levels - just like we have in the past
I must have slept through the third relegation :shock:
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