Relegation Odds

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FactualFrank
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Relegation Odds

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:32 pm

We were 5th faves to go down before today's game at less than 4-1. Now 7-1. The bookies seem reasonably confident we'll stay up.

3 more wins?

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by SGr » Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:50 pm

Norwich are gone, their win this weekend changes nothing. Bournemouth I feel could always put a run together but I just don’t see where it’s coming from at the moment. Then there’s Villa who are generally very poor but have a fantastic player in Grealish.

We still need to add this window to make certain, I’m sure of it.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Bosscat » Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:55 pm

Villa home to Watford
Bournemouth home to Brighton
West Ham away at Leicester
Norwich away to Spuds all .... mid week

When we stick 4 past Manure on Wednesday ... we could be 8 points ahead of the drop :D :D :D come 10pm Wednesday night :lol:

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Kitch1966 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:31 pm

It would be refreshing if we have a real go at Old Trafford. The game is a ' free hit ' after today's win and rather than just sit back and accept a defeat with damage limitation, we should hound them from the kick off. Let's not forget that we've drawn the last three times we've been to Manure's ground and should have no fears. Tough ask yes but it's not impossible like it would be going to Anfield or the Etihad. I just want a strong performance and not the pathetic effort we put in at Spurs before Christmas. UTC !
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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by mdd2 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:34 pm

SGR at this stage no one is gone even Norwich. Folk were saying that about Watford a few weeks ago

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:35 pm

Kitch1966 wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:31 pm
It would be refreshing if we have a real go at Old Trafford. The game is a ' free hit ' after today's win and rather than just sit back and accept a defeat with damage limitation, we should hound them from the kick off. Let's not forget that we've drawn the last three times we've been to Manure's ground and should have no fears. Tough ask yes but it's not impossible like it would be going to Anfield or the Etihad. I just want a strong performance and not the pathetic effort we put in at Spurs before Christmas. UTC !
Liverpool today hounded Man U whenever they got the ball. I lost count of the number of times Liverpool pressed them and nicked the ball back off them. I'd be demanding that if I were SD.
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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Bosscat » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:44 pm

I seem to remember we were 2-0 (with 5 minutes to go) to the good this time last year at the Theatre of Screams and ended 2-2 .... lets stick the Nail in OGS coffin on Wednesday in front of the BT sports cameras
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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by TVC15 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:46 pm

Norwich not gone yet - but it’s going to be very difficult for them I agree.
I think they have been playing well and will be a lot closer than people are saying.
If we do stay up and they go down wouldn’t mind us going for a few if their players to be honest - right back for sure (though probably get outbid on him now), Cantwell, Buendia, Pukkhi.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Tall Paul » Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:40 pm

The bookies have been confident we'll stay up almost all season, because our underlying xG stats have us as a solid midtable team and the bookies know that they are the most reliable predictor of results.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:48 pm

Bosscat wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:44 pm
I seem to remember we were 2-0 (with 5 minutes to go) to the good this time last year at the Theatre of Screams and ended 2-2 .... lets stick the Nail in OGS coffin on Wednesday in front of the BT sports cameras
Would be nice!

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by FCBurnley » Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:07 pm

We still got to add to the squad. Barnes and JGB will be out for a while. Hopefully one or two including Mee and Cork will get a rest v Norwich. Bardsley was struggling at the end today. We are taking a huge risk on no more injuries if we don’t bring any bodies in. Very tight league this this year and we have big games v Bournemouth Saints and Newcastle coming upon

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by ecc » Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:39 pm

I'm not a betting man but I really wouldn't like to have to say which three will drop.

Norwich, despite beating Bournemouth, will probably go unless they can find amazing form like Watford. But i just don't think they've got the players (yes, they will inevitably beat us :) ). I felt Watford had a chance - easy to say now I know but true nevertheless - because they have some good players who weren't performing (Sarr being probably the best example).

Will almost certainly go to the wire.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Zlatan » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:09 pm

There’s a good chance Norwich will roll over in the cup on Saturday to make sure we progress and have more games to fit in

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by jurek » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:11 pm

Have to agree with FCBurnley re. 'taking a huge risk if we don't bring
any bodies in' - especially if we get a few injuries to key players.
Look at what's happened to Bournemouth albeit if they can get some of their players back
they could put a few wins together.
Admittedly the same could happen to other teams too. If Villa lost Grealish for instance.

I think we could still be in the mix in a few games time but hope we can get a win or two by the end of February
and hopefully put us in a position where we might only need another 5 or 6 points.

It's still all to play for but feel the club can't take the risk of losing one or two in the run up
which, if happened could seriously deplete us.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by aggi » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:16 pm

Kitch1966 wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:31 pm
It would be refreshing if we have a real go at Old Trafford. The game is a ' free hit ' after today's win and rather than just sit back and accept a defeat with damage limitation, we should hound them from the kick off. Let's not forget that we've drawn the last three times we've been to Manure's ground and should have no fears. Tough ask yes but it's not impossible like it would be going to Anfield or the Etihad. I just want a strong performance and not the pathetic effort we put in at Spurs before Christmas. UTC !
Liverpool have way more pace throughout the team than us though. If we push up the pitch we'll leave some big gaps for players like Martial, James, etc to run into. Utd have been best playing on the counter this season, their main way of unlocking defences has been pace, so we probably will give them more possession and make them break us down.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Taffy on the wing » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:18 pm

Bosscat wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:44 pm
I seem to remember we were 2-0 (with 5 minutes to go) to the good this time last year at the Theatre of Screams and ended 2-2 .... lets stick the Nail in OGS coffin on Wednesday in front of the BT sports cameras
Yes we were........enter Jon Moss to save the day with a non-penalty and an offside goal!
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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Leisure » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:34 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:09 pm
There’s a good chance Norwich will roll over in the cup on Saturday to make sure we progress and have more games to fit in
Could be interesting with both teams trying to lose the game, as quite a few of our fans are convinced that Mr Dyche has no interest in winning Cup games! :D

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by ClaretAndJew » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:36 pm

Leisure wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:34 pm
Could be interesting with both teams trying to lose the game, as quite a few of our fans are convinced that Mr Dyche has no interest in winning Cup games! :D
I mean, when you look at the statistics around our cup games it's hardly surprising people think he doesn't want to win them.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Hapag Lloyd » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:45 pm

ClaretAndJew wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:36 pm
I mean, when you look at the statistics around our cup games it's hardly surprising people think he doesn't want to win them.
Yes we really should be beating teams like Manchester City :roll:

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:50 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:09 pm
There’s a good chance Norwich will roll over in the cup on Saturday to make sure we progress and have more games to fit in
I bloody hope so. Wembley will be within reach.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:52 pm

Hapag Lloyd wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:45 pm
Yes we really should be beating teams like Manchester City :roll:
Lincoln city we should. But then if they can beat us then we can certainly beat Man City. As many others prove. They’re beatable. They’re a phenomenal side. But beatable.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by ClaretAndJew » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:18 pm

Hapag Lloyd wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:45 pm
Yes we really should be beating teams like Manchester City :roll:
Ah yes, Man City, the only team we've ever played and lost to in the cup under Dyche.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by joey13 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:42 pm

Hapag Lloyd wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:45 pm
Yes we really should be beating teams like Manchester City :roll:
Or Lincoln/Sunderland :roll: :roll:

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Rileybobs » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:28 pm

ClaretAndJew wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:18 pm
Ah yes, Man City, the only team we've ever played and lost to in the cup under Dyche.
To be fair, Lincoln City are the only team from a lower division that Dyche has lost to in the FA cup. And as hideous as the Lincoln City performance was, Dyche sent our strongest side out to win that game.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by ClaretAndJew » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:15 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:28 pm
To be fair, Lincoln City are the only team from a lower division that Dyche has lost to in the FA cup. And as hideous as the Lincoln City performance was, Dyche sent our strongest side out to win that game.
What about the other cup games? Accrington, Sunderland, Burton???

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Rileybobs » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:19 pm

ClaretAndJew wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:15 pm
What about the other cup games? Accrington, Sunderland, Burton???
I thought we were talking about the FA Cup when you mentioned ‘the cup’. Most managers don’t take the League Cup seriously and I’m not particularly bothered that Dyche is one of them.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:26 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:28 pm
To be fair, Lincoln City are the only team from a lower division that Dyche has lost to in the FA cup. And as hideous as the Lincoln City performance was, Dyche sent our strongest side out to win that game.
He didn’t. Flanagan played.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Rileybobs » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:33 pm

Bordeauxclaret wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:26 pm
He didn’t. Flanagan played.
Ok. He played our strongest team bar one, maybe two players. He sent out a very strong side with the intention of winning the game. The team turned in a hideous performance. I can’t believe Flanagan ever got paid to play football FWIW.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Bordeauxclaret » Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:48 pm

Five changes from the previous game. One enforced I think.

We should have had more than enough though.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by bfcmik » Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:35 pm

Bordeauxclaret wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:48 pm
Five changes from the previous game. One enforced I think.

We should have had more than enough though.
And we should have had more than enough for Accrington, Burton & Sunderland too. Especially this season when we put out a side that could, theoretically at least, be expected to compete at the bottom end of the PL. Not SD's fault (or is it?) that so many 1st team squad players didn't play to their strengths. It's not like we played our u18s like the scousers did at Villa

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Taffy on the wing » Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:43 am

Bordeauxclaret wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:26 pm
He didn’t. Flanagan played.
Where is Flanagan these days?............shift work at ASDA?

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by claretblue » Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:47 am

Taffy on the wing wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:43 am
Where is Flanagan these days?............shift work at ASDA?
Rangers - signed 2018 (2 year contract)
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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:57 am

FactualFrank wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:32 pm
We were 5th faves to go down before today's game at less than 4-1. Now 7-1. The bookies seem reasonably confident we'll stay up.
3 more wins?
Now 8th favourites at 16-1!

2 more wins?

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by mdd2 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:10 am

Results of all of us in the mix have in the main been good this week and with 23 points from 24 games (as we were last season) 36 points may not be enough. I mean there are only 10 points from 8th spot to 19th.Very tight this season.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by houseboy » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:49 am

Just to be safe we could do with 40 points I think because there are some 'decent' teams down there in the mix and no-one (apart from Norwich and to a degree Bournemouth) is playing really that badly. Villa I think may be okay because they are not seeming to go on lengthy bad runs and keep picking up wins when they need it. Even Bournemouth could pick up because they are not that bad a side. As far as we are concerned 10 points from 14 games shouldn't be too much to ask should it? I don't think 2 more wins will be enough though because I believe this season 36 points may mean relegation. The last two games mean that from a week ago when we were all (or most of us) feeling the worst we have gone from being relegation candidates to being 7 points clear and only 4 points off Europe. How mad is that?

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Goobs » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:16 am

I honestly thought Bournemouth were a gonner before they beat Brighton at the weekend. Now I'm not so sure.

Norwich will almost certainly drop I think.

Villa are a Grealish injury away fro real trouble IMO as he is absolute quality and if he wasn't a Villa lad he would be at one of the "big 6".

Brighton keep getting written off for relegation and I don't know why other than they pass the ball a lot and can look reasonably pretty at times. I'd be worried if I was a fan of theirs.

West Ham shouldn't go down but the atmosphere is toxic again down there and I think the fans could play a part in them getting into trouble if they are not careful. Especially if you look at 3 of their next 4 fixtures being Liverpool x2 and City.

Watford are still down there and it will be interesting to see how they respond to that Villa winner the other night when they play Tranmere tonight. Think they'll scrape enough under Pearson.

If I had to call it now I would say Norwich, Brighton and Villa to go down, but with quite a few of the bottom 6 playing each other in the coming weeks it could change dramatically by the end of Feb.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Bosscat » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:17 am

Last 2 games in May for us (unless of course we get to the Cup final ;)) is Narch away and Brighton at home.... before that we play Arsenil (a walk in the park after last nights heroics) Soton, West Ham, Bournemouth, Newcastle etc etc etc all infinitely winnable.....

16 points plus is not out of the question from our last 14 games... 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses....

Stop the negativity ... start the positivity ... get behind the lads.....

UTC
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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by tiger76 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:35 am

For the 1st time there is daylight between the mid-table teams and the bottom 6,i'll be :o if anyone from Newcastle upwards doesn't hit around the 40 point mark.

Norwich are battling but they lack the quality to survive.

I think Villa and Watford will have enough to keep their heads above water.

If i was a Bournemouth,Brighton or West Ham fan i'd be worried this morning,it'll be 2 out of those 3 for the final trapdoor spots,i'd take great delight in Brighton and West Ham tumbling into the Championship,West Ham especially will be stuck in that taxpayer funded white elephant of a stadium,with meagre crowds,and apparently the porn barons are trying to sell the club,good luck if they drop the value will plummet.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:41 am

As things stand, the bookies seem to think the 3 going down are Norwich, Bournemouth and Villa.

And when you look at Norwich's current points tally, along with Bournemouth and Villa's remaining fixtures, you can see why.

They both have what looks like the worst remaining fixtures over any other side.
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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by tiger76 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:57 am

FactualFrank wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:41 am
As things stand, the bookies seem to think the 3 going down are Norwich, Bournemouth and Villa.

And when you look at Norwich's current points tally, along with Bournemouth and Villa's remaining fixtures, you can see why.

They both have what looks like the worst remaining fixtures over any other side.
I haven't looked at all the fixtures,but West Ham have a horror run coming up,if they don't beat Brighton and Southampton at Home,and that's by no means guaranteed,where are their points coming from before the end of February,can anybody really see them getting anything from their 2 games against Liverpool,and the small matter of a trip to the Etihad,after those games there's a very strong chance they'll be in the bottom 3,and i can see their fans turning on Moyes,he wasn't a popular appointment to begin with and it could easily unravel very quickly.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:13 am

tiger76 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:57 am
I haven't looked at all the fixtures,but West Ham have a horror run coming up,if they don't beat Brighton and Southampton at Home,and that's by no means guaranteed,where are their points coming from before the end of February,can anybody really see them getting anything from their 2 games against Liverpool,and the small matter of a trip to the Etihad,after those games there's a very strong chance they'll be in the bottom 3,and i can see their fans turning on Moyes,he wasn't a popular appointment to begin with and it could easily unravel very quickly.
Yes, you might be right.

Villa's easiest looking games are all away: Southampton, Newcastle, West Ham.
They also have SPURS, Leicester, CHELSEA, Liverpool, MAN U, ARSENAL
Mixed with other tough games such as: SHEFF U, WOLVES, PALACE, Everton.
3 wins from that, with maybe 3 draws gets them 12 points = 37

Bournemouth have Villa at home coming up, but after that they have:
Sheff U, Burnley, CHELSEA, Liverpool, Man U, SPURS, LEICESTER, Man City
Mixed with: PALACE, Wolves, Everton.
The games where they might pick up wins: NEWCASTLE and SOUTHAMPTON
But overall, it looks daunting.
2 wins and maybe 3 draws? Puts them on 32 points.

As you say, West Ham's also look tough.
LIVERPOOL, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, CHELSEA, Man U, WOLVES
But they do have some home games where they'd be thinking of picking up wins: BRIGHTON, SOUTHAMPTON, BURNLEY, WATFORD, VILLA, with Norwich away.
4 wins and maybe 2 draws puts them on 37.
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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by aggi » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:36 am

FactualFrank wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:41 am
As things stand, the bookies seem to think the 3 going down are Norwich, Bournemouth and Villa.

And when you look at Norwich's current points tally, along with Bournemouth and Villa's remaining fixtures, you can see why.

They both have what looks like the worst remaining fixtures over any other side.

Bournemouth, Villa and West Ham have the toughest remaining fixtures with Norwich just after that.

We've actually got the 4th easiest set of fixtures.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Zlatan » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:39 am

stop looking down lads, we're only 10 points off 4th and the Champions League...

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Hibsclaret » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:45 am

Don’t get the obsession with fixtures tbh. We are only 5 games into the 2nd half of the season which means there are 14 games left meaning all the toughness of games will be similar for every team....

Bournemouth won at Stamford Bridge the other week and Norwich beat City at home. Watford have had a few good results recently and Brighton beat Spurs 3 nil earlier in the season.

Every team has a similar run in and has their future in their own hands, even Norwich. We can still quite easily finish top 6 (this might happen) or bottom 3 (I don’t think this will happen under the ginger genius of course).

If the bookies have us relegated once if we run it 16 times that’s good enough for me because fifteen times we’ll be fine...

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by FactualFrank » Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:02 pm

aggi wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:36 am
Bournemouth, Villa and West Ham have the toughest remaining fixtures with Norwich just after that.

We've actually got the 4th easiest set of fixtures.
Yes I've covered it above your reply. Norwich are bottom and unlikely to get 20 more points.

As for us, I'd say closer to 7th easiest.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by TVC15 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:17 pm

What the remaining fixtures never take into account is the impact of cup competitions, having something to play for versus having nothing to play for, players / managers planning to leave etc.
Every single year we get freak results because of teams resting players or being “on the beach”. The likes of United, Arsenal, Spurs and even possibly City could have nothing to play for.

Hibsclaret
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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Hibsclaret » Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:52 pm

TVC15 wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:17 pm
What the remaining fixtures never take into account is the impact of cup competitions, having something to play for versus having nothing to play for, players / managers planning to leave etc.
Every single year we get freak results because of teams resting players or being “on the beach”. The likes of United, Arsenal, Spurs and even possibly City could have nothing to play for.
Absolutely and most of the big 6 are more beatable than they have ever been, with or without the cup distractions...

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by thelifeofbrian » Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:03 pm

Norwich
West Ham
Brighton

I think these 3 are going down..............
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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by ElectroClaret » Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:10 pm

I think the Hammers will have enough in the tank to stay up.
Norwich
Brighton
Villa or Bournemouth

For me.

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Re: Relegation Odds

Post by Down_Rover » Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:11 pm

Difficult to predict these things or we would all be billionaires and able to solve SD's recruitment problems

Who would have predicted last week that we would have 30 points

having said that I think 38 will suffice but who cares? We can watch with interest
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