League table with extrapolated positions, opponent difficulty, highest/lowest finish, etc

[aggi]

For those not on the Magic Numbers thread, this is the spreadsheet I originally set up for that.

Since then various other things have been added to it so I thought I'd put it on a more general thread.

As well as the magic numbers it also shows:

The average league position of each team's remaining opponents.
The average league position of each team's next 4 opponents.
The extrapolated number of final points and league position based on if the past 6 games form was replicated for the rest of the season.
The extrapolated number of final points and league position based on if the past 10 games form was replicated for the rest of the season
The highest possible league position.
The lowest possible league position.

Spreadsheet can be found here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[aggi]

After the weekend just gone it is no longer possible for us to win the league.

[claretonthecoast1882]

After the weekend just gone it is no longer possible for us to win the league.

Dyche out

[Bosscat]

After the weekend just gone it is no longer possible for us to win the league.

Thats a bugger

[Firthy]

Thats a bugger

So is the fact that Swansea, Stoke, West Brom and Huddersfield appear to still be in the Premier league

[houseboy]

So if we ignore the highest and lowest possible finishes (we could finish bottom or runners up) we look at the most obvious things. The average league postion of our remaining opponents is 11.5 (mid-table), our extrapolated points over the entire season gives us a total of 47 points, over the last 6 games 46 and over the last 10 games (which contains our worst run of the season by far) 48. Our projected league positon is 10th. All this is based on actual performance this season of course and assumes that, for better or worse, nothing much is going to change. The really nice thing is that even if we 'under perform' to the tune of 6 points or even more we will still survive fairly comfortably.

When you look at it in cold figures it all looks very good doesn't it. Only a complete disaster as far as form is concerned would see us in trouble, whereas we could, if the big 6 barring Liverpool go into some kind of meltdown and we just become Barcelona for a few months, finish as runners up.

I like this and it does make a lot of sense - I have always believed that you can extrapolate points once the season has gone past it's half way stage, although there is no accounting for massive upturns or downturns in form. By and large, we're okay.

[Tricky Trevor]

Don’t like arguing with computers but can’t understand Everton getting up to 5th with their harder run in than clubs around them.

[FactualFrank]

Lowest average position of remaining fixtures... Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth.

[Tricky Trevor]

Lowest average position of remaining fixtures... Norwich, Villa and Bournemouth.

That reads wrong, Frank. Lowest number is higher league positions although I think you get that.

[Dark Cloud]

So that Ouija board is suggesting that Palace will go down and Watford will finish comfortable? Seems unlikely right now. Or am I getting it wrong?

[Clarets4me]

So that Ouija board is suggesting that Palace will go down and Watford will finish comfortable? Seems unlikely right now. Or am I getting it wrong?

That's the projection based on the last 4 games form, based on the last 10 games, it would be Brighton, West Ham and Norwich ...

If I could choose, it would be Brighton, West Ham and Bournemouth to be relegated, with West Brom, Preston and Brentford to come up, with Leeds losing in the play-off final on penalties ...

[aggi]

So that Ouija board is suggesting that Palace will go down and Watford will finish comfortable? Seems unlikely right now. Or am I getting it wrong?

That's a scenario.

That's a projection if every team replicated their form for the last six games through to the end of the season. In Palace's case they picked up 4 points in their last six games and are bottom of the six game form table. Watford on the other hand have picked up 10 points from their last 6 games and Villa have got 7.

Realistically though they'll probably pick up and their early season points will be enough to carry them through.

None of it is definitive (apart from highest/lowest possible finish). It's just a variety of indicators based on various elements of form.

[aggi]

Don’t like arguing with computers but can’t understand Everton getting up to 5th with their harder run in than clubs around them.

They're two separate things. The prediction of fifth is based on historic results and doesn't take into account the difficulty of the remaining fixtures. I may add in an expected position weighted by historic results against different league positions to factor in the difficulty of the remaining fixtures if I can be bothered.

[Ric_C]

Blimey, can you imagine sending Brighton down at the last game of the season with Jay Rod scoring the winner? Stuff of dreams

[UpTheClaretsFCBK]

Got to say you'd be very happy with 11th. Would class that as a very successful season.

[Dark Cloud]

The thing is, in the PL this season even more than ever there really is no such thing as form unless you're Liverpool. EVERY other team seems to have crap results and poor runs, but then will suddenly put an unlikely run together and produce points out of the bag when you least expect it. Our form over the last 8 games absolutely epitomises that and that makes sensible predictions of any kind very hard, even with software.

[houseboy]

The thing is, in the PL this season even more than ever there really is no such thing as form unless you're Liverpool. EVERY other team seems to have crap results and poor runs, but then will suddenly put an unlikely run together and produce points out of the bag when you least expect it. Our form over the last 8 games absolutely epitomises that and that makes sensible predictions of any kind very hard, even with software.

True but you can make a reasonable stab at projection based on average form over half a season. Of course there are variables like losing a major player or two through injury (how far would we get without Tarks and Mee for example - answer: not very, probably), but if your form over half the season is 1.5 points per game (for instance) it is reasonable to assume that without a complete meltdown or serious injury problems it will, more or less, continue in that way.
Burnley have averaged 1.24 points per game so far and carried forward that is more than good enough to see us mid-table, we are two thirds way through the season so our remaining games against the 'big' clubs are less than they have been so far, so barring something awful happening there is no reason to assume that things won't continue as they have. But as you rightly say weird things do happen and bizarrely clubs occasionally have a better second half than first over a season (or vice versa).

[aggi]

This is still going this season.

In addition to the stuff in the first post I've also added PPG last 6 - PPG all matches which shows how current form compares to the season's form. Interesting to see that at the moment all of the bottom five are performing better than average. (Green is an upturn in form, red a downturn)

[Whitgord]

An interesting spreadsheet but I think you could use it to predict some strange things.
For example Everton are on a bit of a good run but there is no way they will finish second!
On the other hand it doesn’t make good reading for Newcastle fans.
In general it makes our chances of survival fairly good.
Let’s see how it looks in another four weeks or so.