How many points will 17th need?

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FactualFrank
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How many points will 17th need?

Post by FactualFrank » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:06 pm

There appears to be quite a range in how many points people think is needed to avoid the drop.

Aston Villa have a point per game - played 25 games and have 25 points, and are in 17th place. And looking at their remaining games, I'd say they have the most difficult, alongside Bournemouth and West Ham.

How many points do you think will be needed to stay up?

I'll go with 38.

Tricky Trevor
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Tricky Trevor » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:20 pm

36. A lot of teams down there and they can’t all pick up points regularly.

houseboy
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by houseboy » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:23 pm

47 (pass me that comfort cushion). Seriously? I think this season nearer 40 than 35. Frank might have it with 38 but I'm hoping that we will be over that long before the end of the season.

ElectroClaret
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by ElectroClaret » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:23 pm

Same. 38.

Possibly (or probably) lower.

There's no evidence whatsoever that the teams clustered
at the bottom will suddenly come to and have completely
different results/point collections from their remaining games than they've already achieved.

Possible, of course, but very unlikely.

Zlatan
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Zlatan » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:32 pm

just done the Premier League Predictor here...

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... er-league/
PremierLeaguePredictor2019-20.JPG

FactualFrank
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by FactualFrank » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:34 pm

Zlatan.. 33!
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Croydon Claret
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Croydon Claret » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:36 pm

Still say 36. Not that I'd be sleeping easy at night if we got to that level then went on a sustained losing run, but it's normally enough.

Forget all the talk of "Need to get to 40 points"
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Hopey1786 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:47 pm

We will get in europe
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by houseboy » Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:50 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:32 pm
just done the Premier League Predictor here...

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_cal ... er-league/

PremierLeaguePredictor2019-20.JPG
That's pretty much the maigic numbers result apart from us being two places and 1 point lower on this.

warksclaret
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by warksclaret » Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:03 pm

Between 39-41 to stay up

dsr
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by dsr » Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:12 pm

According to Sportsclubstats (a website that runs millions of simulations of the rest of the season using random numbers, weighted based on league position - see link) we need:

38 points to have a better than 50-50 chance of staying up
40 points to have a 90% chance of staying up
42 points to have a 99% chance of staying up.

The fancied relegation teams at present are:

Norwich 95%
Watford 61%
Bournemouth 38%
Aston Villa 38%
West Ham 38%
Brighton 15%

We are on 2.2%. (chance of finishing top 6 = 3%)

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html

KateR
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by KateR » Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:27 pm

37 points will see teams stay in the PL

jojomk1
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by jojomk1 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:35 pm

13 games left with a good chance of getting at least 1 point in 11 of them

9 points from those games is a more than realistic target

LeadBelly
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by LeadBelly » Mon Feb 03, 2020 6:40 pm

I think 38 will probably survive as per usual in recent times but I daresay no club will breath any sighs of relief until hitting the 40 mark.

Norwich will likely finish quite a way adrift under 30 points but I can see 4/5/6 teams packed tightly around 34-37. Hopefully we get to 40 before the last couple of rounds when it'll be squeaky-bum time for a few sets of fans.

Woodleyclaret
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Woodleyclaret » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:00 pm

We will probably finish 8 to 10th which is a decent return

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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:07 pm

It feels like teams will get more this year. But I feel like there must be loads of times they’ve all to play each other yet. Thus reducing the number. Not even taking into account them playing better sides.

I think Norwich are gone. And I think Watford’s new manager bounce has ended and they’ll go. Then Brighton, Bournemouth, West Ham and villa to scrap for the other place. Of course Newcastle and ourselves aren’t out of it. But if I had to put money on I’d go villa.

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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Colburn_Claret » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:18 pm

Woodleyclaret wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:00 pm
We will probably finish 8 to 10th which is a decent return
Decent :shock:

Bloody marvellous imo ;)
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LeadBelly
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by LeadBelly » Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:27 pm

Aye somewhere near the top of the lower half (11-14th) would be a very decent effort. Getting to 2nd/3rd May without worrying about relegation would be grand.
We could then look forward to the prospect of maybe relegating BHA perhaps in that last game.
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Clarets4me
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Clarets4me » Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:01 pm

The Magic Numbers Predictor says 37, which could be right ... the higher we finish, the easier it make's our recruitment team's job, especially if both our feeder Clubs, Brentford and Leeds, stumble in the promotion race ! :D :D

ClaretMoffitt
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by ClaretMoffitt » Mon Feb 03, 2020 8:20 pm

everyone always says we'll need 40 every season and its never more than 36

tiger76
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by tiger76 » Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:43 pm

38 will likely be enough,but we'll certainly surpass that,even a point a game from herein takes us to 44 points,and we're well capable of at least that with our remaining fixtures,a top 10 finish is perfectly possible,and would be a great stepping stone for next season.

The form guide shows most of the sides below us are struggling for wins,Palace are winless in 6,Brighton are winless in 5,West Ham are winless in 5,now they could turn it around but the face a tough task in catching the clutch of teams on 31 points,Palace have probably got just enough breathing space to keep their heads above water,but assuming Norwich are gone,it looks like a dogfight between Brighton,Bournemouth,Villa,West Ham and Watford,it's asking a lot of those 5 to leapfrog the teams above them,unless one or more of those sides completely implodes,which is unlikely although Palace are trying their damnedest.

Tricky Trevor
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Tricky Trevor » Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:36 am

Is it still £2m per place?
New player or squad bonuses?

claretandy
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by claretandy » Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:35 am

Tricky Trevor wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:36 am
Is it still £2m per place?
New player or squad bonuses?
1.9m to be precise, plus we're already been on/will be on TV 12 times so that's more money as well, we could end up with more TV money for finishing 11th than we got for finishing 7th due to more money being shared out based on league finish.

Lord Beamish
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Lord Beamish » Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:24 am

LeadBelly wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:27 pm
We could then look forward to the prospect of maybe relegating BHA perhaps in that last game.
With Jay Rod popping in the winner in front of the Cricketfield Stand.

Zlatan
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Zlatan » Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:35 am

Lord Beamish wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:24 am
With Jay Rod popping in the winner in front of the Cricketfield Stand.
If Carlsberg did last games of the season...

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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Bfcboyo » Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:59 am

4 wins 3 draws remain 15 points we gain.
giphy.gif
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Stayingup
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by Stayingup » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:23 am

I can see us getting at east another 10 - 11 points at worst. That will definitely keep us up and maybe in the top half and collecting the millions that go with it. UTC

IanMcL
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Re: How many points will 17th need?

Post by IanMcL » Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:20 am

The warmth of Europe appeals....

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