Covid-19

[thatdberight]

I'm lost for a reply, you are consistent I'll give you that

I'm just confused by his remark as to what continent China's in now...

[Jakubclaret]

I'm just confused by his remark as to what continent China's in now...

If it's his remark perhaps it's better asking pussycat sorry familycat, could clear up any unnecessary confusion

[dsr]

I don't think so either - I was just extrapolating population X observed mortality rate.

Offset against your valid points above, though, are much more travel both internal and external to the country allowing much better spread of any disease, and a 70% rise in the population which rebases to c.375,000 and also suggests more people in close proximity.

But no, not 1.4million in my (uneducated) opinion.

Sorry - edit - meant to say that it's a viral pneumonia as I understand it so antibiotics won't be any use.

This may be viral pneumonia - I don't now. Spanish flu was bacterial pneumonia - though I suppose it didn't make much difference in those days.

But the point about travel isn't as valid as it would have been any year other than 1918-19. Not only were millions of people in the epicentre of the virus, ie. western Europe, but they were all sent home in a relatively short time - to Canada, USA, UK, Ireland, France, Germany, India, Australia, New Zealand, Italy, Russia (perhaps less so because they gave up fighting in 1917), etc etc. A sort of "perfect storm" of virus spreading. There was certainly much less internal movement within each country, but the war again makes much less relevant - having spread the virus as a job lot to all parts of the country, it only needed to spread out within communities.

[If it be your will]

What happened with Sars and Bird Flu, how did they come up with a cure for those? Did those take 18 months to get to market?

Bird flu (H5N1 type) has never shown sustained person to person transmission. As yet, it's simply not very well adapted to humans.

Sars wasn't cured, but it was contained. The crucial difference between Sars and nCoV is that Sars was only transmissible after patients became symptomatic, which meant it could be contained. nCoV appears to be transmissible before symptoms, making it much more difficult to contain.

[If it be your will]

Lowbank might have a point here. The WHO 2% estimate looks suspiciously like a straightforward deaths/cases number. But deaths are a lagging indicator, and are generally occurring 1-3 weeks after symptoms start.

Take this article from (the globally recognised and highly respected journal) JAMA:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2761044

It followed 138 patients with nCoV. 41% of them were very likely to be infected whilst in the hospital, being both staff and existing inpatients. They found that 6 of them died, and stated a mortality rate of 4.3%. Hmm. Quite bad, that. But hang on! Look at this line:

"As of February 3, 2020, of the 138 patients included in this study, 26% required ICU care, 34.1% were discharged, 6 died (4.3%), and 61.6% remain hospitalized"

So of the 138 patients in the study, over half are still hospitalised! 85 of the original 138 are still in there! For the case fatality rate to stay at 4.3% would mean not a single one of the remaining 85 patients still sick in hospital will go on to die. The final case fatality rate of this cohort might well top 10%. (The other alarming feature is the 26% requiring ICU.)

That's why I think Lowbank has a point. But that's all I'm committing to at the moment.

[dsr]

Lowbank might have a point here. The WHO 2% estimate looks suspiciously like a straightforward deaths/cases number. But deaths are a lagging indicator, and are generally occurring 1-3 weeks after symptoms start.

Take this article from (the globally recognised and highly respected journal) JAMA:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2761044

It followed 138 patients with nCoV. 41% of them were very likely to be infected whilst in the hospital, being both staff and existing inpatients. They found that 6 of them died, and stated a mortality rate of 4.3%. Hmm. Quite bad, that. But hang on! Look at this line:

"As of February 3, 2020, of the 138 patients included in this study, 26% required ICU care, 34.1% were discharged, 6 died (4.3%), and 61.6% remain hospitalized"

So of the 138 patients in the study, over half are still hospitalised! 85 of the original 138 are still in there! For the case fatality rate to stay at 4.3% would mean not a single one of the remaining 85 patients still sick in hospital will go on to die. The final case fatality rate of this cohort might well top 10%. (The other alarming feature is the 26% requiring ICU.)

That's why I think Lowbank has a point. But that's all I'm committing to at the moment.

Your stats are based on people who were sick enough to need hospital treatment. That would be expected to be a much higher figure than the death rate based on everyone who is infected.

One of the problems of estimating death rates is that they don't know who was infected but with no symptoms or with symptoms that they decided were not worth reporting.

[If it be your will]

Your stats are based on people who were sick enough to need hospital treatment. That would be expected to be a much higher figure than the death rate based on everyone who is infected.

One of the problems of estimating death rates is that they don't know who was infected but with no symptoms or with symptoms that they decided were not worth reporting.

Yes, there are huge gaps in this report, I agree. It's not clear exactly how the 138 were selected for a start. But we have to remember two-fifths of this cohort caught the disease whilst in hospital. Unfortunately, the results don't do a breakdown into categories of 'came into hospital with nCoV' and 'caught nCoV whilst in the hospital', which is a great shame. If all the deaths were from those that came to hospital already infected, your challenge would be totally valid. But that is something we just don't know. And yes, there could have been another 1000 inpatients and staff that caught it but suffered little more than a cough, so wouldn't have been included, or even noticed.

Like I say, I'm only claiming Lowbank 'has a point' and therefore shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Not that he will definitely turn out to be right. (I hope he doesn't turn out to be right.)

[SingaporeClarets]

Can confirm the panic buying here but it's only a handful of the major international companies who are putting in place measures for their fat cat expat managers and all the "bankers" around Shenton Way to work from home. This is going to cause a massive **** storm on Monday morning because well qualified Singaporeans are already getting a raw deal compared to so called foreign talent and are going to turn up and wonder what kind of policy is this.

For the rest of us peasants, our employers since last night are supposed to check our temperature twice a day and continue as business as usual. I'm supposed to be going on a business trip on Tuesday to somewhere I guarantee is not testing sick people and I've been told there is no excuse not to go... I'll be having words with HR on Monday.

[jackmiggins]

Saw Matt Hancock giving his considered view!! My, he has an extremely slappable face. Quite obvious that we have no measures or standard procedures to deal with this. Advice is to self isolate. Might be a little over pessimistic, but I’d shut the borders to any travel from Eastern Asia??

[Jakubclaret]

Saw Matt Hancock giving his considered view!! My, he has an extremely slappable face. Quite obvious that we have no measures or standard procedures to deal with this. Advice is to self isolate. Might be a little over pessimistic, but I’d shut the borders to any travel from Eastern Asia??

Do you have any confidence in China containing the virus? It's a strange do the whistleblower suddenly dying from it, what's the odds of that happening, I think he was knocked off for going over the line & the Chinese authorities didn't like it & dealt with him.

[Lowbankclaret]

Lowbank might have a point here. The WHO 2% estimate looks suspiciously like a straightforward deaths/cases number. But deaths are a lagging indicator, and are generally occurring 1-3 weeks after symptoms start.

Take this article from (the globally recognised and highly respected journal) JAMA:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2761044

It followed 138 patients with nCoV. 41% of them were very likely to be infected whilst in the hospital, being both staff and existing inpatients. They found that 6 of them died, and stated a mortality rate of 4.3%. Hmm. Quite bad, that. But hang on! Look at this line:

"As of February 3, 2020, of the 138 patients included in this study, 26% required ICU care, 34.1% were discharged, 6 died (4.3%), and 61.6% remain hospitalized"

So of the 138 patients in the study, over half are still hospitalised! 85 of the original 138 are still in there! For the case fatality rate to stay at 4.3% would mean not a single one of the remaining 85 patients still sick in hospital will go on to die. The final case fatality rate of this cohort might well top 10%. (The other alarming feature is the 26% requiring ICU.)

That's why I think Lowbank has a point. But that's all I'm committing to at the moment.

That must have been hard to admit!!!!

Thank you for going out and looking for more detail which questions the official line.

I am just trying to get people to question the figures. The Government and WHO do not want blind panic and nor do I.

However the facts are there in the figures.

2% of people who have tested positive have died, it’s a true figure, I don’t dispute it. BUT.
6% of people who have tested positive have recovered, again true figure, if this was used instead surely that would panic, it would be just as valid as the 2% but not going to have the same calming impact on the population.

Of those tested positive who have recovered or died including the over night figures has gone from 26.4% died to 25.7% , not exactly a seismic shift.

More concerning is the number of people in a critical condition (overnight been rebadge as serious condition and the percentage has been removed) the reason, that percentage has been steadily increasing day on day.
Start of last week it was around 10%, yesterday it was 16% . Now they have removed the %, I have calculated it and this morning it’s 17.5%.

As for trying to predict what’s happening going forward you would need the data of how many people who become serious then die, which we don’t have.

Let’s hope someone somewhere developes a vaccine soon.

[Lowbankclaret]

Having now read the attached article it’s no surprise the serious condition % is rising, admittedly 138 is a small sample size and they had all been admitted to hospital which affects the % figures.
A key figure could be the 4.3% who died after becoming serious.

That means of the declared serious potentially 262 of those people was unfortunately pass away.

Currently what is encouraging is that in the other countries where it has been detected the numbers are not climbing exponentially, let’s hope that continues. I think we are 7-14 days away from really knowing if that’s going to happen.

[bfcjg]

This virus has the potential to wipe out millions of people in the third world it's like nature rebalancing the planet.
An earlier poster mentioned his son in law working on a vaccine and pressure from governments to get it out without even testing, that speaks volumes.
Hopefully good comes out of bad and when it's over the realisation that we share a fragile planet might sink in.

[thatdberight]

Having now read the attached article it’s no surprise the serious condition % is rising, admittedly 138 is a small sample size and they had all been admitted to hospital which affects the % figures.
A key figure could be the 4.3% who died after becoming serious.

And it was an unusual sample of, mostly, older Chinese market traders.

[thatdberight]

This virus has the potential to wipe out millions of people in the third world it's like nature rebalancing the planet.
An earlier poster mentioned his son in law working on a vaccine and pressure from governments to get it out without even testing, that speaks volumes.
Hopefully good comes out of bad and when it's over the realisation that we share a fragile planet might sink in.

Gaia has begun.

[mdd2]

I wonder if those opposed to vaccination will be in this queue for vaccinations or will stick by their principles

[Lowbankclaret]

And it was an unusual sample of, mostly, older Chinese market traders.

Agreed.

[Lowbankclaret]

China forcibly removing people from their homes.
Watch the video!!!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... homes.html

[SingaporeClarets]

We've been told by the Singapore government not to panic as the fatality rate outside of Wuhan is 0.2%.

[thatdberight]

China forcibly removing people from their homes.
Watch the video!!!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... homes.html

Do we want them to control it or not? That's why we need it to be held their because our population has too many rights for us to control it.

[Lowbankclaret]

We've been told by the Singapore government not to panic as the fatality rate outside of Wuhan is 0.2%.

Again that’s a figure that’s true, mainly because people haven’t had it long enough.
2 weeks before you get ill and then Can be over 3 weeks before they pass away.
The doctor became ill on the 10th January, died on the 6th Feb.

[Bosscat]

We've been told by the Singapore government not to panic as the fatality rate outside of Wuhan is 0.2%.

The wife and I flying out to Singapore next month whats the situation out there ????

[SingaporeClarets]

Too soon to say.

7 more cases today increased to 40 from 33, mainly linked to previous reported cases but can expect more scrutiny with the cases in UK, France and Spain all being linked back to Singapore.

[bfcjg]

Without wishing to sound heartless, if it ever gets to Burnley we'll spend the full 90 minutes at Turf Moor clapping.

[ClaretAndJew]

Without wishing to sound heartless, if it ever gets to Burnley we'll spend the full 90 minutes at Turf Moor clapping.

Is that one of the symptoms?

[bfcjg]

Is that one of the symptoms?

[Lowbankclaret]

Update on mortality rates, some alarming rates, Wuhan 4.9%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -rate/#nhc

[thatdberight]

Update on mortality rates, some alarming rates, Wuhan 4.9%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -rate/#nhc

The multiple reasons why that might be the case and the statistic be unsound are too self-evident to bother listing.

I bet you're fun at parties.

[Lowbankclaret]

The multiple reasons why that might be the case and the statistic be unsound are too self-evident to bother listing.

I bet you're fun at parties.

I am more concerned the authorities are not treating this seriously enough.

The reason for that is I have 3 existing conditions which means it would probably kill me.

We will know more in a couple of weeks, but it appears to still be spreading.

[thatdberight]

I am more concerned the authorities are not treating this seriously enough.

OK. I understand but we're all either in that position or have people close to us who are.

What would you have the authorities do?

[Lowbankclaret]

OK. I understand but we're all either in that position or have people close to us who are.

What would you have the authorities do?

Firstly ban all flights from China Japan and Singapore .

Instead of not releasing the names of people infected, release the name and movements and anyone who knows they came into contact with them to isolate themselves.

The man from Singapore, was out and about for 4 days before going to hospital.

The person who came back from France to London, do not know how long he was about before being diagnosed.

I hope I am wrong but I fear in two weeks time the number of cases in the UK will start to climb.

[elwaclaret]

OK. I understand but we're all either in that position or have people close to us who are.

What would you have the authorities do?

I must admit being in the middle of Preston campus with a lot of Chinese students, you cannot help worrying. Sure a lot of Universities are the same. Maybe an extension of Reading weeks (week after next) would be sensible to stop Such a large transient population being in close contact for a couple of weeks.

Just in one of my lectures people from the USA, Germany, Portugal, China, Ireland, Uk, Japan, Kashmir, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Southern Africa attend... sure it’s the same at all uni’s.

That is a lot of potential contamination, especially as those not going home will be researching in archives up and down Europe during the reading week break.... it could suddenly change the picture of virus spreading dramatically. Worrying times, with a mum in her 70’s in poor health and my dad approaching his mid 80’s and on a cocktail of drugs for his existing conditions. I admit I’m scared to death for them.

[Lowbankclaret]

When I say about it not being treated seriously enough.

Just read case 41 and 42 from Singapore.
7-8 days after going to the doctor with symptoms they finally get hospitalised. Both been going to events and one has picked up his grandchild whilst having symptoms.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/si ... 9-12412622

[Paul Waine]

Firstly ban all flights from China Japan and Singapore .

Instead of not releasing the names of people infected, release the name and movements and anyone who knows they came into contact with them to isolate themselves.

The man from Singapore, was out and about for 4 days before going to hospital.

The person who came back from France to London, do not know how long he was about before being diagnosed.

I hope I am wrong but I fear in two weeks time the number of cases in the UK will start to climb.

Hi Lowbank, so, why just China, Japan and Singapore? are you also thinking Hong Kong (maybe we can count that as "China"), Taiwan (again, do we count Taiwan as "China"), Malaysia, Korea (North and South), Thailand, etc. etc. etc.

As I understand it, the guy who came back from France to London had been skiing for 4 days - and before that he was at Grand Hyatt in Singapore for 4 days. So, possibly, meets someone in Singapore who as either travelled from China, or has themselves been in contact with person from China, then goes skiing in France - and passed on virus to 5 others in the ski chalet and then comes back to UK and home in Brighton. That's a lot of people to meet with on those journeys.

[Zlatan]

Hi Lowbank, so, why just China, Japan and Singapore? are you also thinking Hong Kong (maybe we can count that as "China"), Taiwan (again, do we count Taiwan as "China"), Malaysia, Korea (North and South), Thailand, etc. etc. etc.

As I understand it, the guy who came back from France to London had been skiing for 4 days - and before that he was at Grand Hyatt in Singapore for 4 days. So, possibly, meets someone in Singapore who as either travelled from China, or has themselves been in contact with person from China, then goes skiing in France - and passed on virus to 5 others in the ski chalet and then comes back to UK and home in Brighton. That's a lot of people to meet with on those journeys.

6 degrees of separation... quarantines for the populace are only necessary when there is a defined outbreak, not to restrict single instances whereby the segregation of the individual is the best approach.

What people forget is that viruses (unlike bacteria) don't live for long outside of their host (most only for hours at most) - as as such good hygiene, cleanliness and good practices are all that is needed to effectively stem the spread - like I've said previously on this thread.

As someone who also has conditions that mean that I am at a higher risk of dying from this (assuming I catch it) I understand Lowbank's concerns - but if you are careful you are much less likely to catch it.

[If it be your will]

There are 40,000 confirmed cases in China. About 4,000 of these have either recovered or died, so 36,000 are currently ill with confirmed coronavirus.

Are all these still in hospital? Are there really 36,000 coronavirus patients in hospital in China right now? If not, where are they? This would represent about a third of the entire bed capacity of the NHS. Also, of the 36,000 that are ill, about 6,000 are recorded as severely ill. This would exceed the entire critical care capacity of the NHS.

And that's with 40,000 confirmed cases, increasing by about 3,000 a day. The numbers are staggering.

(On the plus side, outside China the number of 'recoveries' (44) vastly exceeds the number of deaths (2), supporting the theory that there are huge numbers with only mild symptoms in China, which are going undetected. It's dangerous, but perhaps not calamitously so.)

[mdd2]

And whilst these figures are being debated we bring in new measures to try an enforce quarantine as one of the Wuhan Brits presently in Arrowe Park is trying to walk free.Wow how public spirited.

[Siddo]

I am currently in holiday with family in Thailand. We have stayed in Bangkok, had internal flights, taxis, meals out, and are currently in a resort area before travelling to the South of the country. I can tell you panic levels here are zero.
Some staff, workers, Chinese tourists are wearing masks, but 99% aren't.
The last I heard there were 20 ish cases in a population of 70 million. Most of them Chinese tourists.
There is hand gel in some bars, but life is just carrying on as normal.
We believe that the population is getting good advice, they understand just how difficult it is to catch the disease from anyone but the Chinese and are being sensible and not getting carried away.
I think there are 4 cases in Britain, sorry if that isn't correct, and people on here want the borders closing.
We are British. Keep calm and carry on.
You are not going to catch it unless you are coughed on by a carrier. Very unlikely in Burnley I would have thought.
Hope everyone is ok after the storm and all property etc is ok. It looks bad from what we can see on the BBC and Twitter.

[mdd2]

8 cases now Siddo

[thatdberight]

And whilst these figures are being debated we bring in new measures to try an enforce quarantine as one of the Wuhan Brits presently in Arrowe Park is trying to walk free.Wow how public spirited.

But they have "rights", don't you know? And it's probably giving them "PTSD".

[Zlatan]

But they have "rights", don't you know? And it's probably giving them "PTSD".

Indeed - they had the right to stay in China too. Common sense should prevail with this.

[evensteadiereddie]

8 cases now Siddo

8 cases ? I'm in - do they do next day delivery ?

[Inchy]

I could be talking rubbish here but many Chinese work very long days, have very few days off, work in poor conditions, live in poor conditions, and many will try to home medicate with traditional Chinese medicine (nonsense) before actually following science.

Their immune systems and general health as a base line will be crap.

I can’t imagine the UK population having the same issues for the above reasons. Those who smoke roll ups might struggle

[evensteadiereddie]

An interesting claim re traditional Chinese medicine there, Inchy.

[ClaretAndJew]

It's hardly a claim, there's no scientific basis for any of it. That's the end of the story. As per homeopathy and chiropractors. They are all built on a foundation that lacks any actual evidence base.

[Zlatan]

It's hardly a claim, there's no scientific basis for any of it. That's the end of the story. As per homeopathy and chiropractors. They are all built on a foundation that lacks any actual evidence base.

apart from thousands of years experience...

[damo_whitehead]

I work for a small business that imports from China and have been in contact this morning with my sales manager based in Hong Kong. The situation is really not good, medical supplies are almost run out and the impact on supply chains is going to huge. The provisional governments have set new regulations to combat the spread of coronavirus this morning with workers expected back at work after the extended lunar holiday

[Lowbankclaret]

Just an example of how easy it could be.

A gent has just returned this weekend after spending two weeks in our Singapore facility. Two people have been quarantined from the facility.
Today he returned to work here in the UK.
No checks , no nothing.

Let’s hope it an over reaction and it’s all going to be fine.

[Zlatan]

Just an example of how easy it could be.

A gent has just returned this weekend after spending two weeks in our Singapore facility. Two people have been quarantined from the facility.
Today he returned to work here in the UK.
No checks , no nothing.

Let’s hope it an over reaction and it’s all going to be fine.

Is he well? Is he showing signs of illness? If he gets ill, what will happen?

I get it, I understand your fears - if you dont want it, isolate yourself from society for a few weeks, it'll pass (and I dont mean stay indoors, just apply common sense to yourself - dont eat out at public places or touch door handles etc with your bare hands, be very careful with your personal hygiene etc)

[mdd2]

Zlatan, I am not sure it will pass that quickly as here is a virus that spreads relatively easily and quickly with as far as we can tell a new host with little or no innate immunity. It is likely therefore to hang around for months. I am sure there will be amongst the 7 billion of us a number in whom this infection cannot cause infection-so personkind is safe for now.
Also I am not certain that it has been established that people infected but not ill do not shed the virus.