Covid-19

[LoveCurryPies]

News: Coronavirus could have a 24 day incubation period, 10 days longer than previously thought.

[thatdberight]

Zlatan, I am not sure it will pass that quickly as here is a virus that spreads relatively easily and quickly with as far as we can tell a new host with little or no innate immunity. It is likely therefore to hang around for months. I am sure there will be amongst the 7 billion of us a number in whom this infection cannot cause infection-so personkind is safe for now.
Also I am not certain that it has been established that people infected but not ill do not shed the virus.

On the contrary, one of the reasons this is trickier than recent similar viruses is that it is contagious before symptoms develop.

[thatdberight]

News: Coronavirus could have a 24 day incubation period, 10 days longer than previously thought.

The fellow on The Wirral isn't going to be best pleased...

[LoveCurryPies]

The fellow on The Wirral isn't going to be best pleased...

Yes, I was thinking if they are released after 2 weeks, they could still be contagious.

[mdd2]

On the contrary, one of the reasons this is trickier than recent similar viruses is that it is contagious before symptoms develop.

Not sure if that is correct as it was retracted. The problem is "they still do not know"
I note a post above claiming some report of a longer incubation period. The problem with most of these things is that individuals vary.
Take the Norovirus where 48 hours after the D&V you can return to work as low risk BUT some folk shed the virus in their stools for weeks.
There will be an evolving picture of incubation period, mode of transmission, mortality and morbidity. To state however that the NHS is fully prepared for this cannot be true as others have stated in various posts.

[thatdberight]

Not sure if that is correct as it was retracted. The problem is "they still do not know"
I note a post above claiming some report of a longer incubation period. The problem with most of these things is that individuals vary.
Take the Norovirus where 48 hours after the D&V you can return to work as low risk BUT some folk shed the virus in their stools for weeks.
There will be an evolving picture of incubation period, mode of transmission, mortality and morbidity. To state however that the NHS is fully prepared for this cannot be true as others have stated in various posts.

The NHS can't be prepared for a virus with a mortality rate of 2%. Depends how quickly this spreads but when we do have a rapidly transmitted infection of that virulence, it will wipe the floor with any reasonable health service that could be provided.

[Zlatan]

DONT PANIC...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51447761

[Lowbankclaret]

Zlatan, I am not sure it will pass that quickly as here is a virus that spreads relatively easily and quickly with as far as we can tell a new host with little or no innate immunity. It is likely therefore to hang around for months. I am sure there will be amongst the 7 billion of us a number in whom this infection cannot cause infection-so personkind is safe for now.
Also I am not certain that it has been established that people infected but not ill do not shed the virus.

There was a child in China who the family insisted he was tested, he tested positive for the virus but showed no symptoms. There was no mention in the report about him shedding the virus, but I suspect he would be.

[Lowbankclaret]

Is he well? Is he showing signs of illness? If he gets ill, what will happen?

I get it, I understand your fears - if you dont want it, isolate yourself from society for a few weeks, it'll pass (and I dont mean stay indoors, just apply common sense to yourself - dont eat out at public places or touch door handles etc with your bare hands, be very careful with your personal hygiene etc)

Interestingly, I spoke to a manager today about Singapore.
He told me the facility has today put in place strict only go into the office you work in.
Shift times have been changed so they don’t overlap and to stop workers meeting.
No moving from factory to factory.

So surprises me someone can fly back and have free access to a facility with 20,000 people working in it in the UK.

[If it be your will]

I keep staring at the data, and bits of reports in journals, and I hope to be doing so in a dispassionate way (one can never truly know).

It's becoming increasingly difficult to make a persuasive case that this outbreak is going to be anything other than diabolically bad.

It would require an assumption that there must be something like 500,000+ undetected mild cases that are already recovering (which, even then, would still result in an overall case fatality rate of about 0.2%, killing perhaps 10 million worldwide before its done), or that the partially developed Sars vaccine works for nCoV (and could be quickly mass produced), or there's some new antiviral - or combination of antivirals - that works (which could be quickly mass produced and without any resistance developing), or that it spontaneously mutates into something less dangerous. But this is basically a wish list without any real basis.

Can someone present a persuasive analysis that this will pass in a fairly benign way? Because I'm struggling.

[dsr]

I keep staring at the data, and bits of reports in journals, and I hope to be doing so in a dispassionate way (one can never truly know).

It's becoming increasingly difficult to make a persuasive case that this outbreak is going to be anything other than diabolically bad.

It would require an assumption that there must be something like 500,000+ undetected mild cases that are already recovering (which, even then, would still result in an overall case fatality rate of about 0.2%, killing perhaps 10 million worldwide before its done), or that the partially developed Sars vaccine works for nCoV (and could be quickly mass produced), or there's some new antiviral - or combination of antivirals - that works (which could be quickly mass produced and without any resistance developing), or that it spontaneously mutates into something less dangerous. But this is basically a wish list without any real basis.

Can someone present a persuasive analysis that this will pass in a fairly benign way? Because I'm struggling.

Well, you could re-work your numbers. Your estimate of 500,000 cases of the virus means that less than 1 in 20 of the population of Wutan have it; even if every case is in Wutan, which they aren't. And then you go on to assume that virtually everyone in the world is going to get it.

These things, like swine flu, and bird flu, and SARS, tend to spread a lot better in their home countries than they do round the world. Possibly relating to hot, humid countries where people live on top of each other in their millions being better places for viruses to spread than, say, here.

[If it be your will]

Well, you could re-work your numbers. Your estimate of 500,000 cases of the virus means that less than 1 in 20 of the population of Wutan have it; even if every case is in Wutan, which they aren't. And then you go on to assume that virtually everyone in the world is going to get it.

These things, like swine flu, and bird flu, and SARS, tend to spread a lot better in their home countries than they do round the world. Possibly relating to hot, humid countries where people live on top of each other in their millions being better places for viruses to spread than, say, here.

I see it as perfectly possible there are several hundred thousand with silent, mild disease, and entirely plausible the disease will peter out as it spreads outside the areas where it initially flourished, but at present these are just hopes. We could do to see some solid evidence of these.

Human to human spread of bird flu has been close to impossible up till now, Sars was contained because it was symptomatic before it was transmissible, and the world had at least some in-built immunity to swine flu. This one does seem to be different on all 3 counts.

The Japanese cruise ship is a crucial place to get the evidence of the potential numbers of mild disease because they are all being screened, thus removing the idea that only the most severe cases are being picked up in the official data. If 99% of those found with the virus end up with an inconsequential infection, then suddenly we can all start to believe it won't be so bad. This ship has sort of become the ideal cohort study we needed.

(My 10 million figure was calculated based on an epidemiologist on Radio 4's PM program, who said that with a completely novel disease you would expect 60-80% of the global population to get it, due to a total absence of any natural immunity to it.)

[Zlatan]

we knew what to do in the war... It was common sense then as it should be now - trouble is, modern society has bred individuals who know best because they read it on Facebook or the Orange One professed it...

https://www.google.com/search?q=coughs+ ... wrcUShS7JM

[mdd2]

Hancock told us so years ago in what I think was the Blood donor sketch. Great to listen again. About 10 minutes in

https://youtu.be/dEUvyaNu0uw

[Zlatan]

some posters on here...

"I dont have a medical degree, but I identify myself as a doctor, it's who I am..."

https://youtu.be/OW7dASdQIgU

[thatdberight]

The media are haranguing Brighton's council leaders for not putting out information. Even though they have. What they mean is that there are people obsessing about this 24 hours a day and can they run a department of information. So those same obsessives can then claim that there's a propaganda campaign presumably.

[thatdberight]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51466362

"The World Health Organization says the official name for the disease caused by the new coronavirus is Covid-2019.

"We now have a name for the disease and it's Covid-19," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva."

Make up your mind...

[mdd2]

Just been listening to the account of the man from Brighton who picked up the virus in Singapore and stayed in the French Alps on his way back where it is said he may have infected a number of people. It seems that he may have passed on the virus in France when he was well, not becoming ill until a few days after returning to the UK and after he had visited his local pub.If his case is typical it is possible he spread the bug whilst incubating his illness making it much harder to control this infection by anything other than by nature once it gets a hold outside of China. In the West we are not capable of having mass lock downs and lock outs as the Chinese appear to have now done. Clearly for this man, his illness seems to have been little more than a mild flu like affair and one assumes he is still in isolation because he may be continuing to shed the virus.
If anyone is interested in carriers of disease, Google Typhoid Mary which was at a time when there were no antibiotics for typhoid. For the Concerned of Colne, or the Worried of Worsthorne it will take your mind off this present crisis.

[iowalan]

st marys school in southampton has been closed as possibilities of contact with coronavirus is suspected ....

[If it be your will]

some posters on here...

"I dont have a medical degree, but I identify myself as a doctor, it's who I am..."

https://youtu.be/OW7dASdQIgU

And if I did have a medical degree?

[Hibsclaret]

In the West we are not capable of having mass lock downs and lock outs as the Chinese appear to have now done.

If only they were as good at animal welfare and having nicely controlled animal and food environments, thus preventing the disgusting creation of infections in the first place....it’s great to be able to lockdown after the event but root cause analysis would suggest better safety standards to prevent would make far more sense. Some of the food markets in Hong Kong when I was there years ago leave pretty much everything to be desired.....

[Zlatan]

And if I did have a medical degree?

then you would know better

[If it be your will]

then you would know better

You think so?

[If it be your will]

I keep staring at the data, and bits of reports in journals, and I hope to be doing so in a dispassionate way (one can never truly know).

It's becoming increasingly difficult to make a persuasive case that this outbreak is going to be anything other than diabolically bad.

It would require an assumption that there must be something like 500,000+ undetected mild cases that are already recovering (which, even then, would still result in an overall case fatality rate of about 0.2%, killing perhaps 10 million worldwide before its done), or that the partially developed Sars vaccine works for nCoV (and could be quickly mass produced), or there's some new antiviral - or combination of antivirals - that works (which could be quickly mass produced and without any resistance developing), or that it spontaneously mutates into something less dangerous. But this is basically a wish list without any real basis.

Can someone present a persuasive analysis that this will pass in a fairly benign way? Because I'm struggling.

Hope for the day: Chloroquine. A very old (and fairly useless nowadays) antimalarial.

Dirt cheap, off-patent, easy to mass produce. Apparently had success, and being trialled in China. Seems a long shot, but if it works...

[Zlatan]

You think so?

OK then "You SHOULD know better..."

[AlargeClaret]

Hope for the day: Chloroquine. A very old (and fairly useless nowadays) antimalarial.

Dirt cheap, off-patent, easy to mass produce. Apparently had success, and being trialled in China. Seems a long shot, but if it works...

Now that’s what I call drug rep talk !

[If it be your will]

OK then "You SHOULD know better..."

Remember, all I've done is look at the information available. Having considered the prospect that this could actually be quite a serious thing, I've calmly invited others to put forward an analysis that would support the conclusion that it isn't all that serious, as opposed to just hoping it won't be all that serious (hope, as they say, is not a strategy). I even put forward 4 hypothesis that would support the idea of it not being all that serious, but cautioned that, as yet, I couldn't find supporting evidence for any of them. They were all 'might be' type hypotheses. If all these hypothesis turn out to be wrong, it would be reasonable to suppose what's happening in Wuhan could only be 1-2 months away from happening here. As soon as I saw evidence that chloroquine (or Remdesivir according to this https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0 ) 'might' be the basis of effective treatment, I posted it on here.

As yet, no one else has posted any analysis that it won't be a serious thing, aside from dsr following up my speculation that there could well be hundreds of thousands of mild unreported cases ('might be'), or that it might not be as serious beyond its host country (which I agreed 'might be' true, but is currently without evidence).

I actually believe this won't be as serious in the UK as it currently is in Wuhan, by the way. But I don't yet know why it won't be.

I don't think my posts on here are the ramblings of an over-excitable idiot, though.

[If it be your will]

Now that’s what I call drug rep talk !

Unlike Remdesivir, it's off patent, so anyone could make it if they wanted to, and it's very cheap and easy to make. I don't think there's much money to be made in Chloroquine, except, perhaps on the black market in a week or two!

[Lowbankclaret]

As of this morning I’m am now feeling unwell.
Mild flu like symptoms.
Coughing up green gunk.
Breathlessness which is not unusual for me if I get a virus.
Dry cough and slight fatigue.

Two people sat next to me at work both woke up with sore throats.

Now I am not saying it’s the corona virus . But it’s a slim possibility due to people here at work travelling and having meetings with people from Singapore then returning here.

[Zlatan]

As of this morning I’m am now feeling unwell.
Mild flu like symptoms.
Coughing up green gunk.
Breathlessness which is not unusual for me if I get a virus.
Dry cough and slight fatigue.

Two people sat next to me at work both woke up with sore throats.

Now I am not saying it’s the corona virus . But it’s a slim possibility due to people here at work travelling and having meetings with people from Singapore then returning here.

It's unlikely to be the coronavirus, but it may still be serious enough for you to go home and rest up and isolate yourself just in case. I hope you feel better soon.

here's a good link for you https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/common-cold/

[Lowbankclaret]

Thank you.
Rang in sick this morning, out of the five people who sit in the same area. Three have rung in this morning sick.

It’s likely a normal winter virus.

Don’t know if I have a fever, bloody thermometer is broken. Sending the missus out to buy a new one.

Massive surge in cases and deaths over night in China.

What is confusing is the percentage of deaths outside of China is a massive amount less. Statistically that is very significant.

[Bosscat]

We are due to fly to Singapore and cruise home... in mid March.

Have rung P&O this morning and the itinerary has changed as they have pulled Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore from the itinerary, so we are awaiting new travel and flight details...

[AlargeClaret]

We are due to fly to Singapore and cruise home... in mid March.

Have rung P&O this morning and the itinerary has changed as they have pulled Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore from the itinerary, so we are awaiting new travel and flight details...

They say they have Liverpool to Southampton round to Felixstowe then onto Hull and a coach back from there...

[Zlatan]

Thank you.
Rang in sick this morning, out of the five people who sit in the same area. Three have rung in this morning sick.

It’s likely a normal winter virus.

Don’t know if I have a fever, bloody thermometer is broken. Sending the missus out to buy a new one.

Massive surge in cases and deaths over night in China.

What is confusing is the percentage of deaths outside of China is a massive amount less. Statistically that is very significant.

I hope you feel better soon.

your observation about the statistics outside of China are very telling IMO. There are so many socio-economic parameters that come into play with this. I dont know enough about the areas in China that are most affected to make any real judgements on it though but I am almost certain that the higher death rates are likely to be as a result of poorer hygiene and lower general health etc.

[Lowbankclaret]

When I went China 22 months ago. The area I went too I would say looked comparable to here. Wuxi appeared very affluent with the majority of cars being Toyotas, Mercs, BMW’s etc.
Restaurant’s were very clean, but no idea what you were eating as no one spoke any English.

It could be the age of people getting ill, apparently 75% of the dead are men.

[SingaporeClarets]

As of this morning I’m am now feeling unwell.
Mild flu like symptoms.
Coughing up green gunk.
Breathlessness which is not unusual for me if I get a virus.
Dry cough and slight fatigue.

Two people sat next to me at work both woke up with sore throats.

Now I am not saying it’s the corona virus . But it’s a slim possibility due to people here at work travelling and having meetings with people from Singapore then returning here.

December to February is typically peak flu season here so there are going to be a lot of suspect cases that are not this virus.

[titsoutforthelads]

I think this is a very serious problem and will spread quickly in the UK. Will also cause major problems economically as China has virtually shut down. I know of 2 fans who have decided not to travel down to Southampton this weekend as a school has been closed down there as s precaution
Very worrying times and puts our perceived by some lack of transfer activity and Gibson training with Boro into prespective

[FactualFrank]

I read that some expert or experts say over 60% of the World's population could get infected with this, with 50 million dying, if it isn't halted soon.

[MarkGreen]

Untitled-1.png (466.58 KiB) Viewed 4598 times

[titsoutforthelads]

I read that some expert or experts say over 60% of the World's population could get infected with this, with 50 million dying, if it isn't halted soon.

How can it be halted ?
Not enough known about it.
Isolation for 14 days will cause chaos everywhere.

[Lowbankclaret]

How can it be halted ?
Not enough known about it.
Isolation for 14 days will cause chaos everywhere.

Yes but there common sense things that could be done.

My company has a sister facility in Singapore. They are still this week flying both ways to have face to face meetings.

We have video conferencing and webex, why risk still having face to face meetings.

It was only Thursday last week that the Company said if you travel to China, don’t come to work for two weeks. Still today you can still go to mainland China on work trips.

[Lowbankclaret]

It’s also interesting they are still peddling the two percent death rate.

When in China it’s 19% of those who have either recovered or died.

More encouragingly it’s way less outside of China,

[titsoutforthelads]

And 50m dead in Frank’s scenario of 60% of world population catching it is way less than 2% death rate. Very very worrying times snd only a few weeks into this decade

[Zlatan]

It’s also interesting they are still peddling the two percent death rate.

When in China it’s 19% of those who have either recovered or died.

More encouragingly it’s way less outside of China,

Where's your 19% come from?

the current death rate is still approximately 2% based on figures from 6 hours ago - in China

for the record, the survival rate in the UK is currently 100% - lets hope it stays that way

[Lowbankclaret]

Lies, lies and statistics.

If you look on this site.

As I have said before, in statistics the 2% is valid. It is the percentage of people who have contracted it against those who have died.
When I did the calcs also valid in statistics is that only 6% have recovered. Might be slightly higher now. That’s because 92% of people are still ill.

If you look at the percentage of people who have recovered or died, it’s now 82% to 18%.

Data is all there.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Zlatan]

Lies, lies and statistics.

If you look on this site.

As I have said before, in statistics the 2% is valid. It is the percentage of people who have contracted it against those who have died.
When I did the calcs also valid in statistics is that only 6% have recovered. Might be slightly higher now. That’s because 92% of people are still ill.

If you look at the percentage of people who have recovered or died, it’s now 82% to 18%.

Data is all there.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

you cant conflate the data like that. Of those active cases none of them have actually died, granted that there are 8000 or so considered serious and some may die from that group, but close to 45000 considered to be mild where in reality you'd expect 0 deaths from that group. Your 19% or 18% is scaremongering Lowbankclaret, and that's why I'm pulling you up on it.

EDIT - the comparison for the UK using the same data set is 89% and 11% which would scare people if they thought that 11% died in the UK when the reality is that 1 person survived and recovered.

[titsoutforthelads]

Wish I had never looked at this thread now.
More worried then before after reading this.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

I’m more worried about how much we spent on Gibson and Vydra.

[If it be your will]

you cant conflate the data like that. Of those active cases none of them have actually died, granted that there are 8000 or so considered serious and some may die from that group, but close to 45000 considered to be mild where in reality you'd expect 0 deaths from that group. Your 19% or 18% is scaremongering Lowbankclaret, and that's why I'm pulling you up on it.

EDIT - the comparison for the UK using the same data set is 89% and 11% which would scare people if they thought that 11% died in the UK when the reality is that 1 person survived and recovered.

Before I say anything else, when this is all over and done with, the case fatality rate will be no where near 18%

That doesn't mean the outcome ratio of recoveries:deaths is completely irrelevant either, though. It's one of 3 legitimate ways of trying to determine the 'correct' case fatality rate.

Surely you agree that every single one of those that have died had 'mild' disease at some point? And therefore that some of those 45000 will go on to progress to 'severe' disease, and that a small number of those will ultimately die?

[Lowbankclaret]

you cant conflate the data like that. Of those active cases none of them have actually died, granted that there are 8000 or so considered serious and some may die from that group, but close to 45000 considered to be mild where in reality you'd expect 0 deaths from that group. Your 19% or 18% is scaremongering Lowbankclaret, and that's why I'm pulling you up on it.

EDIT - the comparison for the UK using the same data set is 89% and 11% which would scare people if they thought that 11% died in the UK when the reality is that 1 person survived and recovered.

No it’s not scaremongering. It’s a fact!!

If the rates continue as they are today. 18% of people who have contracted it could die, in China at least.


What’s your reasoning for stating that percentage may change???

A vaccine could be one.

Outside of China the percentage is 0.07% deaths which statistically is very strange.