Covid-19

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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:15 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:30 am
Why aren't you dismissing him as a patsy of the establishment sent to placate the stupid populace with his infeasibly low estimate? 400,000 is only 0.5% of the population.
He is an expert making predictions.

I have only quoted factual data, at least I don’t think I have made any predictions on here.

I don’t intend to make any either.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:18 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:04 am
Bloody hell, that's really cheered me up. :(
Me too!!!!

Just hope it’s brought under control.
Just been announced 8 out of the 9 UK cases are now recovered and released. Good news.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by FactualFrank » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:23 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:18 pm
Just been announced 8 out of the 9 UK cases are now recovered and released. Good news.
Yes that is good news. 100% recovery rate over here would be even better. I wonder if we do anything/much different to what they do in China.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:32 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:15 pm
He is an expert making predictions.

I have only quoted factual data, at least I don’t think I have made any predictions on here.

I don’t intend to make any either.
No. But you have dismissed WHO estimates etc as being too optimistic (which were similar to those made by Prof Ferguson) and also postulated it was a biological weapon unleashed by the Chinese government on its own people.

You can't dismiss stats as false and being just to keep us all calm and then say you never made a prediction. You may not have put a number on it but you clearly predicted it was/would be/is much worse than those stats.

Knowing I lack anything other than an ability to take in the summaries that experts are giving, I have relied on those.
Last edited by thatdberight on Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:34 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:23 pm
Yes that is good news. 100% recovery rate over here would be even better. I wonder if we do anything/much different to what they do in China.
.98 ^ 9 = .83

And that's before you even get to all the other factors likely to increase that number.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:01 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:32 pm
No. But you have dismissed WHO estimates etc as being too optimistic (which were similar to those made by Prof Ferguson) and also postulated it was a biological weapon unleashed by the Chinese government on its own people.

You can't dismiss stats as false and being just to keep us all calm and then say you never made a prediction. You may not have put a number on it but you clearly predicted it was/would be/is much worse than those stats.

Knowing I lack anything other than an ability to take in the summaries that experts are giving, I have relied on those.
And the fact remains that closed cases are still high at 15%. It’s slowly but steadily coming down as time goes on.
I have always said the WHO statistic is a valid calculation, but to be a final outcome percentage it relies on all current people infected to recover.
If we find a vaccine or a way to help people recover that could happen.
Today’s highest death rate of 143, suggests we are far from that outcome.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:05 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:23 pm
Yes that is good news. 100% recovery rate over here would be even better. I wonder if we do anything/much different to what they do in China.
My guess is it just overwhelming the heath care They have available.
We probably don’t but with only single figure cases we can give them full intensive care if needed.
More countries today have declared everyone cured or one dead.
9 out of 29 appear to have contained it. Again good news.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:11 pm

Little point quoting experts but here's another one saying 1% mortality.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/ ... cientists/

Still. PANIC!!!

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:25 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:05 pm
My guess is it just overwhelming the heath care They have available.
So, on one hand it's overwhelming their system but on the other the number of cases still open is reliable because they have resources to verify those plus the (all experts agree) likely large number of very mild /unreported cases.

(Oh, and they're not trying hard presumably because of the secret biological weapon thing that only you worked out.)

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:28 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:25 pm
So, on one hand it's overwhelming their system but on the other the number of cases still open is reliable because they have resources to verify those plus the (all experts agree) likely large number of very mild /unreported cases.

(Oh, and they're not trying hard presumably because of the secret biological weapon thing that only you worked out.)
On overwhelming the system, they have built 2 new 1000 or over bed hospitals and converted several buildings to makeshift hospitals, does that qualify as overwhelmed???? I suggest it does.

Whole cities are in lockdown, are there likely to be cases not in the numbers, sure but who knows how many.

Read a couple of articles that that think it a conspiracy, probably based on the fact Wuhan has a site that was studying the SARS and Ebola virus.

In my defence, no one has been able to dispute my calculations.

People just resort to personal insults which tells me they cannot construct an alternative mathematical argument.

Zlatan stated the virus was waning, today China quoted the highest deaths in one day. That’s hardly waning.

Outside of China there are some encouraging signs, 9 countries containing it, several more not declaring any further cases.

That’s very encouraging.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by bfcjg » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:32 pm

24 hour news channels are spending so much time on this it's almost being talked up.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:39 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:32 pm
24 hour news channels are spending so much time on this it's almost being talked up.
They need something to talk about and it plays to a certain section of the population. Result!
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:24 pm

Someone doesn’t understand how to interpret logarithmic graphs and statistics, but it’s me that’s wrong

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by FactualFrank » Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:28 pm

First death from outside Asia announced. An 80 year old male in Paris.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:06 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:28 pm
First death from outside Asia announced. An 80 year old male in Paris.
Contracted in Hubei province in China, the centre of this outbreak. Seems pertinent to me.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:18 am

thatdberight wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:22 pm
Since I'm no expert, I'm going to go with the sort of consensus which those with knowledge seem to be going for that it could be anything up to 2% but possibly less when you factor in under reporting of mild cases and the likelihood that we will get some respite due to seasonality if we can get as far as spring with no spread. They're not simply sitting dividing deaths by cases to come up with this.

This would not be "biblical levels of catastrophe". It would certainly be significant but 1.5% of the population die every year anyway.

Anyway, I understand from later posts it's only a Chinese government plot to reduce their own population so, unless you're ethnically Chinese, it seems the panic is over.
Thought that seemed high, but only just got round to checking it. It's actually 0.9%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281 ... ingdom-uk/

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by mdd2 » Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:15 am

Might not be a bad idea to compare the environment of Chinese people and cities concerning this outbreak with ours and possible reasons why the data on morbidity and mortality could be different.
The Chinese are different from us genetically, one example being the higher incidence of lactose intolerance. Susceptibility to infection may be different.
Additionally and perhaps of more relevance, but only perhaps, 50% of Chinese men smoke, UK stats around 15%. For anyone who has been to China, there is so much visible air pollution you can look at the sun. Therefore the ~Chinese may, may have more airways disease which could, could make the illness more severe in China than could be the case if it got hold here in the UK.
Just to cheer folk up-immunity from some coronaviruses does not last long meaning re-infections can occur so this thing could be around a long, long time.
But hey what fantastic results since the Chelsea defeat. UTC

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:25 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:15 am
Might not be a bad idea to compare the environment of Chinese people and cities concerning this outbreak with ours and possible reasons why the data on morbidity and mortality could be different.
The Chinese are different from us genetically, one example being the higher incidence of lactose intolerance. Susceptibility to infection may be different.
Additionally and perhaps of more relevance, but only perhaps, 50% of Chinese men smoke, UK stats around 15%. For anyone who has been to China, there is so much visible air pollution you can look at the sun. Therefore the ~Chinese may, may have more airways disease which could, could make the illness more severe in China than could be the case if it got hold here in the UK.
Just to cheer folk up-immunity from some coronaviruses does not last long meaning re-infections can occur so this thing could be around a long, long time.
But hey what fantastic results since the Chelsea defeat. UTC
From my visit in 2018 there is more pollution in the cities but a couple of hours out it’s not bad.

Wuxi city
E9B93492-99F8-41EF-9D47-3C8396F782E0.png
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:28 am

Out in the countryside

ECA63F78-4CA2-4FF5-BEEC-75635832EB10.png
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.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by mdd2 » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:34 am

But in the cities is where most folk live. Again would be of interest to see how the city dwellers infected do compared with any rural victims although medical care will differ too and I am sure there would be other compounding variables

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:38 am

If it be your will wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:18 am
Thought that seemed high, but only just got round to checking it. It's actually 0.9%.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281 ... ingdom-uk/
Yes. Sorry. Rising population masks the underlying statistic (since we're not all living to 111).

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:39 am

All the data released so far today is encouraging.
Lower transmission rate in China at around 2000. Deaths not unexpected at 142.
Another 70 cases on the ship, again to be expected.

Outside of that very very low rates of transmission. Fingers crossed this trend continues.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by FactualFrank » Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:51 am

China announces drop in new cases for third straight day.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51519055

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:19 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:15 am
Might not be a bad idea to compare the environment of Chinese people and cities concerning this outbreak with ours and possible reasons why the data on morbidity and mortality could be different.
The Chinese are different from us genetically, one example being the higher incidence of lactose intolerance. Susceptibility to infection may be different.
Additionally and perhaps of more relevance, but only perhaps, 50% of Chinese men smoke, UK stats around 15%. For anyone who has been to China, there is so much visible air pollution you can look at the sun. Therefore the ~Chinese may, may have more airways disease which could, could make the illness more severe in China than could be the case if it got hold here in the UK.
Just to cheer folk up-immunity from some coronaviruses does not last long meaning re-infections can occur so this thing could be around a long, long time.
But hey what fantastic results since the Chelsea defeat. UTC
It appears to be entering the cells via ACEII receptors and, for reasons unknown, those of far east origin have more ACEII receptors than other races. (North European caucasians have the lowest concentration.)

Instinctively I'd be surprised if this made a substantial difference, but it might do.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:26 pm

If it be your will wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:19 pm
It appears to be entering the cells via ACEII receptors and, for reasons unknown, those of far east origin have more ACEII receptors than other races. (North European caucasians have the lowest concentration.)
Source? There's one tiny study of less than a dozen people I can find but nothing that backs up such a statement about the general populations.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:05 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:26 pm
Source? There's one tiny study of less than a dozen people I can find but nothing that backs up such a statement about the general populations.
Source for which bit particularly? That coronavirus enters via ACE2 or that density of ACE2 is higher in the oriental population?

If it's the former, there's a lot of evidence for this virus as well as for the similar SARS virus. If it's the latter, typing "ACE2 density race" into a search engine brings up a few references.

If you're asking if I think this will prove to be significant, my best guess is 'no'. As I said, I don't think it will prove relevant at all. Just thought as mdd seemed to be interested by the idea of racial differences in susceptibility to this virus, it was worth mentioning.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:23 pm

If it be your will wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:05 pm
If it's the latter, typing "ACE2 density race" into a search engine brings up a few references.
This bit. There's nothing that supports the theory that Asian or Chinese ethnicity is a factor - apart from one "study" that had less than a dozen people. Anything else returned by that search is unrelated to that question.

The second or third hit is from right-wing nutjobs Stormfront. That's about the level of credibility it has.

It might be a factor. But there's no data to suggest it's a fact let alone a factor.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:06 pm

When searching for evidence that the oriental population might be more susceptible than the rest of the world (an avenue a few posters seem keen to explore) this really was the best I could come up with, I'm afraid. I've said twice I don't think it will prove to be relevant. The very fact this was the best I could do despite significant effort on my part, is itself relevant.

As such, until someone finds something more persuasive, we have to work to the assumption there is no difference in susceptibility. Has anyone out there found anything more persuasive than my (risible) attempt?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:13 pm

Other than that which has already been highlighted, like air pollution or smoking rates etc?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:22 pm

I tried, but I was unable to find supporting evidence for these theories, too. Anyone else got any?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:33 pm

It could support some of the conspiracy theories.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bosscat » Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:50 pm

We were supposed to be flying out to Singapore for 4 days before joining P&O Arcadia on a cruise back to Southampton in March...
P&O have pulled Singapore , Port Kelang and Penang from the itinerary (Hong Kong, Shanghai and Manilla already taken out before we were due to join the ship)

They offered us to Fly to Freemantle, but a 33 night cruise with only 4 ports of call wasn't attractive at all... so they offered us to have a full refund.

Both my wife and I very relieved to get our money back, we didn't want to cancel initially when coronavirus hit. But had been thinking about it since, although it would have been a huge hit financially.
Thankfully P&O offered us the option, although we had been very much looking forward to Singapore and celebrating our Silver Wedding on the cruise home....

Hopefully we can retry and get to Singapore in the near future when this damned coronavirus has gone away.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:16 pm

I was talking to a close friend yesterday who’s Sons wife lives in Singapore, ( yep he lives here she lives there, no idea how it works but it does for them )
My friends wife was talking to her on the Phone on Monday and she was saying they had started panic buying in the supermarkets over the weekend, people pushing two and three trolleys piled up with goods. Eventually they put in place restrictions as the shelves were emptied.
No other info from her.

Interestingly even though Singapore have not restricted movement there is no exponential increase in cases.

The other thing I have noticed is there have been apparent transmission from flights which has surprised me. The super spreader flew from Singapore to France and then France to UK. No reports of any spread from the flights.

In India, three medical staff flew around 10 hour flights and don’t appear to have transmitted it to others in spite of having the virus.

Maybe just maybe it’s harder to spread this around than is thought.

The ship is a counter argument to this, which I don’t understand.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:49 am

I don’t understand anything either (apart from logarithmic scales and statistics) and I’m wondering whether we’re all going to die or just get a cold...

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by mdd2 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:06 pm

If they tested the whole of the 3700 on the liner one in six have been infected and will have
Been together before hitting Japan for ages, days at least whereas flights even at 10 hrs are relatively short and there are various reasons for going down with this thing
My three boys played together and with other kids
Two got chicken pox and the third despite not being isolated did not develop it
He was 23 when he got it clinically but you would have thought he was exposed to the virus as a child
I note more males have gone down with corona virus than women in China about 2:1

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by bfcjg » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:28 pm

Bosscat wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:50 pm
We were supposed to be flying out to Singapore for 4 days before joining P&O Arcadia on a cruise back to Southampton in March...
P&O have pulled Singapore , Port Kelang and Penang from the itinerary (Hong Kong, Shanghai and Manilla already taken out before we were due to join the ship)

They offered us to Fly to Freemantle, but a 33 night cruise with only 4 ports of call wasn't attractive at all... so they offered us to have a full refund.

Both my wife and I very relieved to get our money back, we didn't want to cancel initially when coronavirus hit. But had been thinking about it since, although it would have been a huge hit financially.
Thankfully P&O offered us the option, although we had been very much looking forward to Singapore and celebrating our Silver Wedding on the cruise home....

Hopefully we can retry and get to Singapore in the near future when this damned coronavirus has gone away.

I hope I am aforded the same flexbilty with my Easter Foulridge canal cruise should the outbreak reach East Lancs :)

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:42 pm

On the good news front.

China for the 5th day running has declared a reducing number of new infections, still at 1,700 ish.

The statistics appear to settling down a little, with more data that’s expected.

Still 12% of people inside of China (closed cases) are dying .

Outside of China it’s still at 3%.

There is more new data which should allay some people’s fears. It’s on the Worldometer site.

The vast majority of deaths are people over 60 with underlying conditions.

If your under 50 and in good health the data suggests it’s no more dangerous than normal flu.

6A39700D-492E-4E6F-B951-20BBB062C715.png
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by mdd2 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:45 pm

In current severe global emergency situation of 2019-nCov outbreak, it is imperative to identify vulnerable and susceptible groups for effective protection and care. Recently, studies found that 2019-nCov and SARS-nCov share the same receptor, ACE2. In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to non- smoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.


I posted the above from a paper to be published from the States which may be of relevance to the outbreak and may be of interest to certain folk who have been posting.
Last edited by mdd2 on Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by bfcjg » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:45 pm

B0ll0cks to the figures, what the F is a love relief sock ?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:22 pm

I see Lowbank is still insisting on posting misleading numbers...

:roll:

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:47 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:22 pm
I see Lowbank is still insisting on posting misleading numbers...

:roll:


You means figures like these factual ones.
8D205194-3E48-49B5-B6D8-00247C10896D.png
8D205194-3E48-49B5-B6D8-00247C10896D.png (188.27 KiB) Viewed 2812 times

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bosscat » Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:08 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:45 pm
B0ll0cks to the figures, what the F is a love relief sock ?
:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:10 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:47 pm
You means figures like these factual ones.

8D205194-3E48-49B5-B6D8-00247C10896D.png
Yes the factual ones that you insist on misinterpreting all the time...

EDIT (because I have a conscience...)

Consider this...

At the start of the outbreak (figures for illustrative purposes only):

100 confirmed cases, 10 closed cases (all deaths) by your argument that’s a 100% death rate because you ignore the other 90 people who are most likely going to live.

Few weeks later, 1000 confirmed cases, 100 closed cases (50 survived and 50 deaths) again by your argument that’s 50% death rate because you ignore the 900 people who are most likely to live.

Couple of months later, 100,000 confirmed cases, 10,000 closed cases (8000 survived and 2000 deaths) again your death rate is 20% because you ignore the 90,000 who are likely to live.

Roll on to 6 months later 1M confirmed cases, and it’s almost run it’s course now, 500,000 closed cases (485,000 survived and 15,000 deaths - your death rate is now much closer to what it actually is for the outbreak, but still higher at 3% than the ACTUAL death rate which is closer to an estimate of 2%.

12 months on, and out of the 1M who contracted the virus 20,000 die, which means the 2% death rate is accurate, not your 100% in the initial phase or the 50% after a few weeks or the 20% a couple of months later, and not even the 3% based on your argument after 6 months.

If it be your will
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:34 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:45 pm
In current severe global emergency situation of 2019-nCov outbreak, it is imperative to identify vulnerable and susceptible groups for effective protection and care. Recently, studies found that 2019-nCov and SARS-nCov share the same receptor, ACE2. In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to non- smoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.


I posted the above from a paper to be published from the States which may be of relevance to the outbreak and may be of interest to certain folk who have been posting.
So that's one avenue regarding racial susceptibility closed by the looks of it, but opens up another possibility for the high mortality rate in China - smoking rates.

Again, instinctively, I'd be surprised if ACE2 receptor concentration made a material difference, but we shall see.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:34 pm

Zlatan.

I get that, the data is valid as off today.

Your predicting less people will die as time goes on, and I buy that.

However without a cure, what factors do you think will reduce the death rate of those infected??

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:56 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:34 pm
Zlatan.

I get that, the data is valid as off today.

Your predicting less people will die as time goes on, and I buy that.

However without a cure, what factors do you think will reduce the death rate of those infected??
The main thing that you insist on ignoring, despite multiple experts saying it, is the likely massive underreporting of the number of cases who never even make it into these stats.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:20 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:56 pm
The main thing that you insist on ignoring, despite multiple experts saying it, is the likely massive underreporting of the number of cases who never even make it into these stats.
This is the big unknown. An awful lot hinges on this. Their number would need to be in the region of 2 million for Covid-19 to have a similar case fatality rate to seasonal flu, though.

I'm guessing, everyone's guessing, but surely there would be more cases being picked up all over the globe if there were 2 million inconsequential (and recovered) cases out there. It would also require it to be extremely infectious for there to be such a high number of undiagnosed cases, considering it only (apparently) popped into human existence 10 weeks ago.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:32 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:56 pm
The main thing that you insist on ignoring, despite multiple experts saying it, is the likely massive underreporting of the number of cases who never even make it into these stats.
I am quoting declared data!

Speculation by experts eh, those the one’s who said the apocalypse would be upon now due the Brexit.

If those experts are telling everyone it’s 2% due to all the cases no one knows about, I suggest that’s clutching at straws.

I agree they appear to be working on Zlatans theory, I just don’t see the path that gets it to 2% without some break through.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:55 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:32 pm
I am quoting declared data!

Speculation by experts eh, those the one’s who said the apocalypse would be upon now due the Brexit.

If those experts are telling everyone it’s 2% due to all the cases no one knows about, I suggest that’s clutching at straws.

I agree they appear to be working on Zlatans theory, I just don’t see the path that gets it to 2% without some break through.
We'll all be dead by Easter thanks to this virus.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:11 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:55 pm
We'll all be dead by Easter thanks to this virus.

I don’t think that either.

I saw one predictive graph that estimated 54 million would be infected by 22nd of Feb. I didn’t mention or share it cause I thought that was crap.

I question what experts say, as most of the time it’s PC bullsh1t.

I have not predicted any outcome, just questioned some of the data used.


What I am watching for now is the next stage.

Has it been spread on flights etc and people have just not got ill yet which could soon result in a sudden explosion of cases.

Or is it not as easy to transfer and Europe has this under control.

I fear in Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong and S Korea have not got it under control And still are not doing enough.

Interesting Iran declared 2 cases and within hours said they were dead. FFS don’t get sick in Iran.
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