Covid-19

[thatdberight]

This is the big unknown. An awful lot hinges on this. Their number would need to be in the region of 2 million for Covid-19 to have a similar case fatality rate to seasonal flu, though.

I'm guessing, everyone's guessing, but surely there would be more cases being picked up all over the globe if there were 2 million inconsequential (and recovered) cases out there. It would also require it to be extremely infectious for there to be such a high number of undiagnosed cases, considering it only (apparently) popped into human existence 10 weeks ago.

Prof. Ferguson reckoned there could be 50k new cases per day in China so there might be huge numbers. I think the evidence is that this is worse than flu. Significantly worse. Not apocalyptic though. So we get on with it. It'll come here at some stage.

[mdd2]

Why wouldn’t Ace2 receptor concentration have an effect it that if what the virus needs to enter cells and have its effects namely multiplication escape cells and infect other cells
Any infection depends upon the inoculation dose and the persons susceptibility doesn’t it?

[Bosscat]

I think we need to send some UTC'ers out to China to sort this mess out .... they seem to have all the answers

[If it be your will]

Why wouldn’t Ace2 receptor concentration have an effect it that if what the virus needs to enter cells and have its effects namely multiplication escape cells and infect other cells
Any infection depends upon the inoculation dose and the persons susceptibility doesn’t it?

It's plausible, yet I'd be surprised. Do you happen to have any numbers? Let's say smokers had 5x the number of ACE2 receptors in the lung, then it's easy to see how this might make a big difference. If it's only, say, 30% more, it's difficult to imagine this would materially affect a persons susceptibility.

There's also the possibility that the morphology of ACE2 receptors differs between races/smokers/whatever (and that some allow virus entry better than others), but this is probably clutching at straws. I suspect we'd know that by now if it were true just by observation of the cases, particularly if there was a marked difference.

[If it be your will]

Prof. Ferguson reckoned there could be 50k new cases per day in China so there might be huge numbers. I think the evidence is that this is worse than flu. Significantly worse. Not apocalyptic though. So we get on with it. It'll come here at some stage.

This is the thing: it's either extremely infectious, or it's very dangerous (at least compared to flu), but it can't be neither.

I hope it's the former, because I can't see it being contained from here either way, unless there's a dramatic discovery in treatment.

[Gordaleman]

When are people going to stop panicking about this, and when are they going to stop spreading rumours instead of facts?

Flu kills 650,000 people every year, 10,000 of them in Britain alone. Why aren't people panicking about that? Because it's not anti Asian propaganda, that's why. Remember the video of a woman eating Bat soup? It was said to be in Wuhan (Where bat was said to be a delicacy, except it's not.) but it wasn't even in China. It was filmed in 2014 by an American / Chinese travel journalist when she was in Palua in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

https://observers.france24.com/en/20200 ... -indonesia

[Lowbankclaret]

When are people going to stop panicking about this, and when are they going to stop spreading rumours instead of facts?

Flu kills 650,000 people every year, 10,000 of them in Britain alone. Why aren't people panicking about that? Because it's not anti Asian propaganda, that's why. Remember the video of a woman eating Bat soup? It was said to be in Wuhan (Where bat was said to be a delicacy, except it's not.) but it wasn't even in China. It was filmed in 2014 by an American / Chinese travel journalist when she was in Palua in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

https://observers.france24.com/en/20200 ... -indonesia

I think China are worried because it’s killing 11% of people who either get better or die. Many on here keep quoting that flu kills less than 1%.

If flu in China caused as many cases to be hospitalised each year, why would they need to build two hospitals that can hold over 1,000 people plus converting buildings to hospitals.

Might just be me, but if this was the same they would have enough infrastructure to cope already therefore I smell a PR rat. Some one is not be straight with us.

[Gordaleman]

I think China are worried because it’s killing 11% of people who either get better or die. Many on here keep quoting that flu kills less than 1%.

If flu in China caused as many cases to be hospitalised each year, why would they need to build two hospitals that can hold over 1,000 people plus converting buildings to hospitals.

Might just be me, but if this was the same they would have enough infrastructure to cope already therefore I smell a PR rat. Some one is not be straight with us.

I don't know where you are getting your figures from, probably the right wing, anti Asian press but I'll bet they aren't true. Do you think that the WHO would just be sitting on their hands and saying nothing, if that was the case?

I think that you are making my point for me. Rumours are fuelling panic. Come back when you can quote the precise source of the 11%.

[thatdberight]

I don't know where you are getting your figures from, probably the right wing, anti Asian press but I'll bet they aren't true. Do you think that the WHO would just be sitting on their hands and saying nothing, if that was the case?

I think that you are making my point for me. Rumours are fuelling panic. Come back when you can quote the precise source of the 11%.

He can. It's wrong for reasons repeated often. He likes expertise when it suggests this is severr... but not when it doesn't.

He also thinks it's a virus engineered by the Chinese government to kill off their own people.

[Lowbankclaret]

He can. It's wrong for reasons repeated often. He likes expertise when it suggests this is severr... but not when it doesn't.

He also thinks it's a virus engineered by the Chinese government to kill off their own people.

It was a conspiracy theory I read and thought that could help their demographic problem, however the Chinese are pulling out all the stops to halt this so I now think it’s highly unlikely that conspiracy theory holds any water.

[Lowbankclaret]

He can. It's wrong for reasons repeated often. He likes expertise when it suggests this is severr... but not when it doesn't.

He also thinks it's a virus engineered by the Chinese government to kill off their own people.

As much as you guys state it’s wrong, it’s not wrong, the data is correct and true.

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[Lowbankclaret]

I have also pointed out there was a large difference between inside China and outside China. Unfortunately that data is starting to converge. Last week it’s was around 3% for death rates outside of China, that’s grown to over 5% this week.

The WHO prediction is based on a change in the recovery rates overtime. It’s a prediction, it may or may not come to pass. I hope it does.

However the current Actual data points to 1 in 10 death rate in China and 1 in 20 outside of China.

[thatdberight]

It was a conspiracy theory I read and thought that could help their demographic problem, however the Chinese are pulling out all the stops to halt this so I now think it’s highly unlikely that conspiracy theory holds any water.

Well, you might change your mind again. This was your thinking only a few days ago.

[Zlatan]

...and yet still the penny has refused to drop

[Lowbankclaret]

...and yet still the penny has refused to drop

We will unfortunately have to agree to disagree on this one.

I am using data that’s real as declared.

You are living in hope an experts predictions come to pass.

[thatdberight]

However the current Actual data points to 1 in 10 death rate in China and 1 in 20 outside of China.

No it doesn't. It points to something much more specific.

[Lowbankclaret]

Well, you might change your mind again. This was your thinking only a few days ago.

Always willing to change my view when evidence comes to light.

Assuming the Chinese data is valid the actions they have put in place appear to be having an effect on its spread. Which is great news. Shame other countries are not following that lead.

[Lowbankclaret]

No it doesn't. It points to something much more specific.

So please enlighten us to this specific thing?

[thatdberight]

So please enlighten us to this specific thing?

That's my secret.

[FactualFrank]

Coronavirus 'spike' protein just mapped, leading way to vaccine

Researchers worldwide are racing to develop potential vaccines and drugs to fight the new coronavirus, called SARS-Cov-2. Now, a group of researchers has figured out the molecular structure of a key protein that the coronavirus uses to invade human cells, potentially opening the door to the development of a vaccine, according to new findings.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus ... cture.html

[Lowbankclaret]

The WHO has asked for $675 million to be put towards fighting this virus.

So far they have little response and they don’t believe countries are treating this seriously enough.

Go figure, why would they , it’s no worse than flu.

Some one is right.

Some one is wrong.

[Gordaleman]

One of the countries that is the slowest to react is the UK, led by that numpty Johnson.

Last to arrange flights out of Wuhan, last to arrange repatriation of Brits on the Diamond Princess. No arrangements at all in UK hospitals. No protection for staff either.

Personally, I think we have seen the worst of this virus for now, but we still need to be ready to act until a vaccine is produced and everyone can be protected against it.

This is a perfect example of how the right wing press are spreading fear. Both the Mail and the Sun printed this story without checking it first.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51504512

As a result of news media like them, people are openly spreading misinformation about Covid-19 as it is now called.

[thatdberight]

The WHO has asked for $675 million to be put towards fighting this virus.

So far they have little response and they don’t believe countries are treating this seriously enough.

Go figure, why would they , it’s no worse than flu.

Some one is right.

Some one is wrong.

It's you. You're right.

[Zlatan]

We will unfortunately have to agree to disagree on this one.

I am completely misunderstanding data that’s real as declared.

You are living in hope that Lowbankclaret will understand how to interpret the statistics correctly.

fixed that for you

[Lowbankclaret]

Interestingly WHO prediction on the SARS virus proved wrong.
Who would have thought that.

[Lowbankclaret]

Interesting analysis and look back at a previous outbreak

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B31539AD-02C9-4481-8581-A253A732BDC2.png (345.97 KiB) Viewed 2791 times

[Zlatan]

Interestingly WHO prediction on the SARS virus proved wrong.
Who would have thought that.

Care to expand on what you mean by this? Are you saying WHO over exaggerated the impact of SARS and as such they’re doing the same again...???

[thatdberight]

Care to expand on what you mean by this? Are you saying WHO over exaggerated the impact of SARS and as such they’re doing the same again...???

The WHO has been "working with an international network of statisticians and mathematical modelers to estimate key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19" and is currently suggesting " current IFR estimates range from 0.3% to 1%."

How can such a measured approach hope to be as informative as somebody in their bedroom getting themselves in a tizz and selectively grabbing whatever stats and conspiracy theories drift through their window?

[Lowbankclaret]

As it states WHO predicted a 3-4% death rate For SARS that ended up being 9.6%.

It’s calcs are flawed.

[If it be your will]

Care to expand on what you mean by this? Are you saying WHO over exaggerated the impact of SARS and as such they’re doing the same again...???

This is not having kittens, stressing, spreading false rumours, or laying claim to be an expert that should be sent to China to sort all this mess out, or anything else I might be blithely accused of, but

On 14th April 2003 https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_04_14/en/ WHO formally estimated the mortality of SARS at 4%. This was due to using the same blunt deaths/cases measure they used to estimate the 2% rate for COVID-19: "Data available to WHO indicate that 96% of persons developing SARS recover spontaneously. The focus now is on the roughly 4% who are dying."

As the outbreak progressed it became increasingly obvious this was a flawed method for estimating mortality when the number of cases were increasing rapidly. In a later report they estimated the mortality rate to be 14-15% https://www.who.int/csr/sarsarchive/2003_05_07a/en/

The case fatality rate for SARS finally settled at 9.6%

You will note that I have not said this will also happen with COVID-19. This is just a case of putting up 2 WHO reports from a similar outbreak 17 years ago, when WHO initially grossly underestimated the mortality of SARS.

[Zlatan]

I read your WHO got it wrong and raise you WHO redefined their prediction models since SARS...

https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/a ... -7015-5-34

For the record, without googling, can you tell me how many UK citizens were infected with SARS and how many died?

[Zlatan]

...any responses to my question are null and void now as you’ve had time to google it

[thatdberight]

On 14th April 2003 https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_04_14/en/ WHO formally estimated the mortality of SARS at 4%.

In what way does the link you provided show the WHO "formally estimating" the likely future or population-wide mortality rate?

You're reading what you want to read, not what it says.

That's even before you get to the very different approaches taken by China in the two outbreaks in terms of acknowledging the issue, response and transparency (even if it's still not perfect).

[If it be your will]

In what way does the link you provided show the WHO "formally estimating" the likely future or population-wide mortality rate?

You're reading what you want to read, not what it says.

That's even before you get to the very different approaches taken by China in the two outbreaks in terms of acknowledging the issue, response and transparency (even if it's still not perfect).

I gave you a direct quote from a WHO document! How can it possibly be more formal!

I really don't get your angle. in the early stages WHO got SARS badly wrong. That's it. I've made no other claim.

[If it be your will]

...any responses to my question are null and void now as you’ve had time to google it

Ok. (I think.)

[Zlatan]

Ok. (I think.)

4 cases in the UK and I think zero deaths. I have googled it and I cannot find out if anyone actually died in the UK. The point I’m making is that although others are revelling in glee that the WHO made errors in predictions it doesn’t change that only 4 cases of SARS occurred in the UK irrespective of the death rate.

Now I do understand that the latest “Armageddon” is clearly more virulent that SARS, I must note it is also demonstrated that it is nowhere near as deadly based upon the statistics describing the outbreak (as long as you understand what you are looking at)

[thatdberight]

I gave you a direct quote from a WHO document! How can it possibly be more formal!

I really don't get your angle. in the early stages WHO got SARS badly wrong. That's it. I've made no other claim.

My "angle" is that they didn't "formally estimate" anything in that link. They reported a number of people who had died (and made it pretty clear that there were major impediments to even getting such basic data). That document had no estimate of overall or then-future mortality rates.

[Lowbankclaret]

Today for me is a bad day on the Coronavirus front.

Cases in South Korea are currently following the exponential curve and they haven't put in place the severe measures the Chinese have to combat its spread.

Iran only only announced 2 cases on Weds who both died the same day, 3 cases on Thursday, two of them died, 13 new cases today over three cities 150 miles apart. Also a woman who had visited Iran has been diagnosed in Canada.

Italy , one man has been diagnosed, they have quarantined 160 people he has had contact with and they are working on how to deal with his work colleagues.

Singapore, carries on as normal with just one additional case. Don’t get this one!

[Zlatan]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

Death rates massively swayed by the elderly, who if they got flu would probably have the same death rate. It’s no worse than flu, but keep worrying yourself if you like

[Gordaleman]

Some people just like spreading fear and rumour instead of facts.

Judge for yourselves which camp you are in and if you are in the first camp then ask yourself why.

[gsyclaret]

Somebody showed me a page from a book call the eyes of darkness by dean koontz which was written in 1981 , quite spooky , google it.

[FactualFrank]

Somebody showed me a page from a book call the eyes of darkness by dean koontz which was written in 1981 , quite spooky , google it.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dean- ... ronavirus/

What's True

An image shows a genuine page from Dean Koontz's novel "The Eyes of Darkness" containing the words "Wuhan-400."

What's False

However, Dean Koontz did not predict an outbreak of a new coronavirus. Other than the name, this fictional biological weapon has little in common with the virus that caused an outbreak in 2020.

[ayrshireclaret83]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

Death rates massively swayed by the elderly, who if they got flu would probably have the same death rate. It’s no worse than flu, but keep worrying yourself if you like

Most sensible post on this subject.

Been using that site for a few weeks now shows the facts and not the hype that the “other news agencies” want to show

[Lowbankclaret]

For those who think the WHO are subject matter experts.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

[Gordaleman]

For those who think the WHO are subject matter experts.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

Look at the figures quoted in that article and compare them to normal annual Flu. Flu kills 650,000 people worldwide every year including 10,000 in the UK but there isn't mass panic about it (And we already have a vaccine for Flu.) The reason for concern about Covid-19 is just that it's a new pathogen that could, only could, (Like Bird Flu) mutate into something more dangerous.

Thankfully, Bird Flu seems to have gone away for now but no doubt at some stage it will come back. When it does, it could be far more dangerous than this Covid-19 which at the moment isn't that serious, except for the relatively few people who have contracted it and generally get over it.

[thatdberight]

Look at the figures quoted in that article and compare them to normal annual Flu. Flu kills 650,000 people worldwide every year including 10,000 in the UK but there isn't mass panic about it (And we already have a vaccine for Flu.) The reason for concern about Covid-19 is just that it's a new pathogen that could, only could, (Like Bird Flu) mutate into something more dangerous.

Thankfully, Bird Flu seems to have gone away for now but no doubt at some stage it will come back. When it does, it could be far more dangerous than this Covid-19 which at the moment isn't that serious, except for the relatively few people who have contracted it.

More in the UK. About 17,000 per annum over the last 5 years.

Oh, by the way, you're wasting your breath talking to LBC about this. And you'll need your breath to run away from the zombie apocalypse that Covid-19 will absolutely definitely cause any day now.

[Gordaleman]

More in the UK. About 17,000 per annum over the last 5 years.

Oh, by the way, you're wasting your breath talking to LBC about this. And you'll need your breath to run away from the zombie apocalypse that Covid-19 will absolutely definitely cause any day now.

You are a complete idiot. Try facts, not fear. Zombie apocalypse.

[ClaretAndJew]

100% of people die.

Life is the biggest disease of all.

Why is there not a massive panic?

[thatdberight]

You are a complete idiot. Try facts, not fear. Zombie apocalypse.

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[Lowbankclaret]

Look at the figures quoted in that article and compare them to normal annual Flu. Flu kills 650,000 people worldwide every year including 10,000 in the UK but there isn't mass panic about it (And we already have a vaccine for Flu.) The reason for concern about Covid-19 is just that it's a new pathogen that could, only could, (Like Bird Flu) mutate into something more dangerous.

Thankfully, Bird Flu seems to have gone away for now but no doubt at some stage it will come back. When it does, it could be far more dangerous than this Covid-19 which at the moment isn't that serious, except for the relatively few people who have contracted it and generally get over it.

So explain why China has millions of citizens in lock down.

Italy has now 10 towns in lockdown.

South Korea is looking to put their citizens on lockdown.

I think it’s something to do with 20% of people being serious or critical who have got it. In all the years of flu going around I don’t know anyone who has been hospitalised and certainly not in intensive care.

Iran will be interesting as their healthcare is rubbish,

The thing is your not going to change your mind that this is no different to flu.
I however am just looking at the declared data and seeing a more serious issue than you.

No where have I predicted an outcome