Covid-19

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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:52 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:29 pm
I didn’t make a joke about you dying. I made a joke about how much you seem to be concerning yourself over this virus, and how if it is as deadly as you think then we don’t have much time left, so why spend the rest of your days worrying about it. You seem to have taken it very personally.
Firstly you did, you said you said “ I cannot believe you’re spending your final few days on this earth worrying about this” suggesting I am going to die. Not sure why you question this statement you made.

All the data suggest people with underLying issues are at high risk.

So with diabetes, hypertension and severe asthma I suggest I am majorly high risk hence I am worried.

You just think the whole thing is a joke.

You suggesting my days are numbered, I don’t find very funny.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:58 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:52 pm
Firstly you did, you said you said “ I cannot believe you’re spending your final few days on this earth worrying about this” suggesting I am going to die. Not sure why you question this statement you made.

All the data suggest people with underLying issues are at high risk.

So with diabetes, hypertension and severe asthma I suggest I am majorly high risk hence I am worried.

You just think the whole thing is a joke.

You suggesting my days are numbered, I don’t find very funny.
I don’t (or didn’t) know your medical conditions. I wasn’t making specific reference to you dying, more the human race as a whole. You seem to be worrying a hell of a lot about something that none of us have any control over, and if this virus is as bad as you seem to think then why waste your limited time worrying about it.

It was a throwaway comment making light of a situation that is entirely out of our hands. Apologies if that’s offended you but I think you’re being a little sensitive.
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paulatky
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:42 am

Stock market fallen by over 200 pts this morning as the world stock markets realise the severe economic effect its having

thatdberight
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:06 pm

My intention is not to irrationally portray the risk as lower than it is but to keep bringing experts' pronouncements. One scientist in the middle of the bit of Europe most affected:

>>>>>>

Maria Rita Gismondo, head of clinical microbiology, virology and diagnostics at Milan’s Luigi Sacco Hospital complained that her department was being asked to carry out a huge quantity of tests on possible coronavirus carriers, and said the alarm had been blown out of proportion.

“It seems to be madness. People are confusing an infection which is slightly more serious than the flu to a lethal pandemic. It is not like that. Look at the numbers,” she said on Instagram. “This madness will do a lot of damage.”

<<<<<<
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Stalbansclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:27 pm

Damn this bug...was going to Milan with my other half and her son this weekend and hoping to get the chance to sneak off to watch AC Milan v Genoa at the San Siro. Trip now looks like a non-starter.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:25 pm

Stalbansclaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:27 pm
Damn this bug...was going to Milan with my other half and her son this weekend and hoping to get the chance to sneak off to watch AC Milan v Genoa at the San Siro. Trip now looks like a non-starter.
Yes. Its going to cause mayhem with all sorts of arrangements at this rate. Whether it's worth it depends on what its impact actually is and whether the measures taken have any effect of course.

Gordaleman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:25 pm

Someone on a BBC HYS just asked, "Where's Boris?"

He's where he always is. Nowhere to be seen. His public appearances are limited to PMQs where he tries his best NOT to answer questions and just blusters his way through.

He thinks being 'King' means sitting on your throne and just looking down on everyone whist your advisors (In his case just one.) do all the work.

The man's a buffoon, nothing more, nothing less.


Re Covid-19: People are quoting individual 'Experts', some of whom are saying it's no worse than Flu. That's really not the case. We know how to fight flu and many people are protected against it with vaccines. As yet, we know very little about Covid-19 and won't have a 'Starter' vaccine until next year at the earliest. So even though the virus itself might be no worse than flu, it's a new pathogen that we need to be careful about. It might mutate into something worse, or it might not but panicking about it, won't help anyone.

Just be sensible and take the precations that have been widely publicised.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:54 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:58 pm
I don’t (or didn’t) know your medical conditions. I wasn’t making specific reference to you dying, more the human race as a whole. You seem to be worrying a hell of a lot about something that none of us have any control over, and if this virus is as bad as you seem to think then why waste your limited time worrying about it.

It was a throwaway comment making light of a situation that is entirely out of our hands. Apologies if that’s offended you but I think you’re being a little sensitive.
Dying is a really tragic personal event, it’s the red danger zone any sort of humour really, some people can get really offended, it’s not something you should ever joke about in my personal opinion, (I wouldn’t) but credit where’s credit due & you’ve attempted to square it off, I’d leave it there.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by williamjblazkowicz » Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:27 pm

From the information I've found, the death rate from COVID-19 seems to be somewhere between 2-3% which is way higher than the death rate from the flu. So I'm not sure why people are downplaying it so much. It's just not the same thing. I've been to the supermarket and pharmacy today to stock up. At the end of the day, it's all stuff I'll eventually use and being prepared for any eventuality puts my mind at ease, particularly regarding the safety of my wife and little girl. Most people laugh it off (and it's okay to have a sense of humour!) but they are the ones who will end up panic buying and missing out on essentials if it does kick off elsewhere such as the UK.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:39 pm

williamjblazkowicz wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:27 pm
From the information I've found, the death rate from COVID-19 seems to be somewhere between 2-3% which is way higher than the death rate from the flu. So I'm not sure why people are downplaying it so much. It's just not the same thing. I've been to the supermarket and pharmacy today to stock up. At the end of the day, it's all stuff I'll eventually use and being prepared for any eventuality puts my mind at ease, particularly regarding the safety of my wife and little girl. Most people laugh it off (and it's okay to have a sense of humour!) but they are the ones who will end up panic buying and missing out on essentials if it does kick off elsewhere such as the UK.
On the news at luchtime today, figures were given for death rates. Within Hubei province they were over 3% but that was probably because the infection spread for a long time before the authoritie did much about it. Outside Hubei, even in China, death rates were only 0.7%.

Please don't spread panic. The situation isn't brilliant of course but a measured and ACCURATE response would be the best way forward.
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Jakubclaret
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:56 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:39 pm
On the news at luchtime today, figures were given for death rates. Within Hubei province they were over 3% but that was probably because the infection spread for a long time before the authoritie did much about it. Outside Hubei, even in China, death rates were only 0.7%.

Please don't spread panic. The situation isn't brilliant of course but a measured and ACCURATE response would be the best way forward.
It needs nipping in the bud but that doesn't seem to be happening hence people panicking, it's took me about 60 seconds to find out the seventh person as died in Italy, & WHO are stating the world should be preparing for a pandemic reported by the BBC, the prevention measures aren't stringent enough,.with Skyscanner I could book a return flight now to China if I wanted to with no medical questions asked whatsoever, some have been suspended or modified, modified meaning you could fly out.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:19 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:56 pm
It needs nipping in the bud but that doesn't seem to be happening hence people panicking, it's took me about 60 seconds to find out the seventh person as died in Italy, & WHO are stating the world should be preparing for a pandemic reported by the BBC, the prevention measures aren't stringent enough,.with Skyscanner I could book a return flight now to China if I wanted to with no medical questions asked whatsoever, some have been suspended or modified, modified meaning you could fly out.
And what's wrong with flying out to China at the moment? You sound like one of the 'Zombie Apocolypse' idiots. Do you think that the world should stop because a new virus is killing about the same percentage of people as flu?

As I've said on this thread before, 650,000 people die of flu every year, including 10,000 in this country. So far as I'm aware, we haven't yet had a single death from Covid-19 and the death rate worldwide is only the same in percentage terms as flu. Also, of the twelve confirmed cases in Britain, most of them are probably nearly recovered.

Panic is not the answer.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:24 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:19 pm
And what's wrong with flying out to China at the moment? You sound like one of the 'Zombie Apocolypse' idiots. Do you think that the world should stop because a new virus is killing about the same percentage of people as flu?

As I've said on this thread before, 650,000 people die of flu every year, including 10,000 in this country. So far as I'm aware, we haven't yet had a single death from Covid-19 and the death rate worldwide is only the same in percentage terms as flu. Also, of the twelve confirmed cases in Britain, most of them are probably nearly recovered.

Panic is not the answer.
you'll struggle to educate those who wont or aren't able to think for themselves. There are some who do try but don't fully understand the statistics and sources of the data to be able to take a realistic view of the information out there, and they'd rather quote headlines from news sources who appear to have nothing better to report at the moment (conspiracy theorist in me wonders what is happening elsewhere for this to be such a big story!)

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:26 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:19 pm
And what's wrong with flying out to China at the moment? You sound like one of the 'Zombie Apocolypse' idiots. Do you think that the world should stop because a new virus is killing about the same percentage of people as flu?

As I've said on this thread before, 650,000 people die of flu every year, including 10,000 in this country. So far as I'm aware, we haven't yet had a single death from Covid-19 and the death rate worldwide is only the same in percentage terms as flu. Also, of the twelve confirmed cases in Britain, most of them are probably nearly recovered.

Panic is not the answer.
With all due respect it's the world health organisation who are urging people to prepare for a pandemic I'm sorry but that's something I can't take lightly. I'm just not comfortable with the idea of people flying out to China & back & then socialising amongst society, we've got enough viruses & diseases already to worry about we don't need anymore.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:33 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:26 pm
With all due respect it's the world health organisation who are urging people to prepare for a pandemic I'm sorry but that's something I can't take lightly. I'm just not comfortable with the idea of people flying out to China & back & then socialising amongst society, we've got enough viruses & diseases already to worry about we don't need anymore.
Then I suggest you buy an old nuclear bunker for yourself and your family. You really don't want to listen to facts, do you? Flu has been a pandemic for hundreds if not thousands of years. Perhaps you don't understand what the word 'Pandemic' even means? All it means is 'Worldwide, like Measles, Chickenpox etc.. It doesn't mean it's more dangerous.

Covid-19 may at some stage mutate and become more dangerous. Fine, if it does, then that's the time to worry. Until then, enjoy your bunker but don't forget, your food will riun out very quickly and you'll have to go shopping again. Scary eh?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:36 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:24 pm
you'll struggle to educate those who wont or aren't able to think for themselves. There are some who do try but don't fully understand the statistics and sources of the data to be able to take a realistic view of the information out there, and they'd rather quote headlines from news sources who appear to have nothing better to report at the moment (conspiracy theorist in me wonders what is happening elsewhere for this to be such a big story!)
The media needs something new to scare people with. It used to be Russia and the 'Cold War'. More recently, it was 'Brexit'. Now they have something else to sensationalise. They have to sell newspapers somehow. Call me a cynic, ha ha.
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Jakubclaret
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:40 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:33 pm
Then I suggest you buy an old nuclear bunker for yourself and your family. You really don't want to listen to facts, do you? Flu has been a pandemic for hundreds if not thousands of years. Perhaps you don't understand what the word 'Pandemic' even means? All it means is 'Worldwide, like Measles, Chickenpox etc.. It doesn't mean it's more dangerous.

Covid-19 may at some stage mutate and become more dangerous. Fine, if it does, then that's the time to worry. Until then, enjoy your bunker but don't forget, your food will riun out very quickly and you'll have to go shopping again. Scary eh?
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html
Even the scientists say it's a wild card with just too many unknowns, I'll hedge my bets with the flu in my bunker.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:49 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:40 pm
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html
Even the scientists say it's a wild card with just too many unknowns, I'll hedge my bets with the flu in my bunker.

You clearly didn't read my posts. I give up.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:57 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:49 pm
You clearly didn't read my posts. I give up.
Of course I did read it & I know what you are saying is true to a degree, I've also been researching for myself & trying to obtain scientific facts rather than just listen to people on a football MB, agree to disagree on this 1, I'm just a very cautious person who prefers not to take any chances, & I don't think flights to China & back to the UK is a wise idea, I wish no further input on this thread now coming from myself, I know it's not going to go away & it will end up hitting the UK.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:35 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:57 pm
Of course I did read it & I know what you are saying is true to a degree, I've also been researching for myself & trying to obtain scientific facts rather than just listen to people on a football MB, agree to disagree on this 1, I'm just a very cautious person who prefers not to take any chances, & I don't think flights to China & back to the UK is a wise idea, I wish no further input on this thread now coming from myself, I know it's not going to go away & it will end up hitting the UK.
I don't suppose you bothered watching the BBC news at 6pm tonight? They pointed out that the spread in China has been falling for over a week now, so maybe it's peaked there. It also pointed out the death rates in confirmed cases and they are far below what you have been suggesting. On top of that, there will be many more people who caught the virus but never became ill enough to do anything about it. It's not the Black Death you know.

Markets all over the world are falling, but it's not because of the disease itself, it's because of the way it's slowing down production worldwide and that could lead to a world recession.

Enjoy your bunker but remember this. When you come out again, (In five years maybe?) Covid-19 won't have gone away and you'll be one of the few who by then won't have got immunity from it.
Last edited by Gordaleman on Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Billy Balfour
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Billy Balfour » Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:38 pm

Do you have a scar?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by ecc » Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:56 pm

Is there any subject that fails to trigger slanging matches on here?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by FactualFrank » Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:40 pm

ecc wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:56 pm
Is there any subject that fails to trigger slanging matches on here?
I click on the thread, expecting updates. 9 times out of 10 it's a poster having a go at another.

This is a serious topic, can we please only update it it's worth reading (apart from this one).

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by elwaclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:48 pm

Universities back in today... all back together from all over the world.

Just saying.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:50 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:35 pm
I don't suppose you bothered watching the BBC news at 6pm tonight? They pointed out that the spread in China has been falling for over a week now, so maybe it's peaked there. It also pointed out the death rates in confirmed cases and they are far below what you have been suggesting. On top of that, there will be many more people who caught the virus but never became ill enough to do anything about it. It's not the Black Death you know.

Markets all over the world are falling, but it's not because of the disease itself, it's because of the way it's slowing down production worldwide and that could lead to a world recession.

Enjoy your bunker but remember this. When you come out again, (In five years maybe?) Covid-19 won't have gone away and you'll be one of the few who by then won't have got immunity from it.
Why on gods green earth have you decided to believe anything from coming from China? They cannot be trusted in any shape or form after what happened to the whistle blowing doctor dying in them suspicious circumstances, I’ve only traded a handful of counter posts but I didn’t have you down as being that gullible, China will tell us anything we want to hear, whether that’s the truth is highly debatable, the undiagnosed cases are exactly that unknown so we don’t really know that the people that had fallen ill did have the virus & can’t claim a recovery from that, by the law of averages it’s fair to assume some could have had but far from 100% sure, didn’t watch the news at 6 but I’ll tune in to LBC later & listen to that no doubt it will get some sort of mention.
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Lowbankclaret
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:29 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:58 pm
I don’t (or didn’t) know your medical conditions. I wasn’t making specific reference to you dying, more the human race as a whole. You seem to be worrying a hell of a lot about something that none of us have any control over, and if this virus is as bad as you seem to think then why waste your limited time worrying about it.

It was a throwaway comment making light of a situation that is entirely out of our hands. Apologies if that’s offended you but I think you’re being a little sensitive.
Firstly I accept you was just having an attempt at humour and accept your apology.

When you say your time, quoting that person, I humbly suggest it comes across as specific the that person and not a general statement.


And yes, have several issues ongoing at the moment and I agree I was probably being over sensitive. For that I apologise too.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:40 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:39 pm
On the news at luchtime today, figures were given for death rates. Within Hubei province they were over 3% but that was probably because the infection spread for a long time before the authoritie did much about it. Outside Hubei, even in China, death rates were only 0.7%.

Please don't spread panic. The situation isn't brilliant of course but a measured and ACCURATE response would be the best way forward.
I know I will waste my time posting but your choosing data and values that support your thoughts and not opening your mind to data governments are concerned about and reacting too.

The data you quote assumes all active cases recover, perhaps you have heard of a cure that helps you support that data. Honestly how likely is that

Governments are reacting to the fact that 20% end up in intensive care, currently 9% of closed cases end up dead. Varies massively across the globe, that why they are reacting as they are.


Like I say I will have wasted my time, but hey ho.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by KellyClaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:57 pm

7 dead of 220 infected in Italy?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:00 pm

KellyClaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:57 pm
7 dead of 220 infected in Italy?
Don't worry according to some a hot lemsip & packet of lockets & we'll be dandy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:04 pm

Well once again I will try to explain the data.

WHO declare 2%, that’s a calculation of deaths per number of people are diagnosed with the virus. Valid calculation but it assumes all active cases recover and no one else dies who has it.

Closed cases, ie people who have either recovered or died is currently 91% recovered , 9% died. That’s slowly been coming down as expected.

Active cases are around 22% serious or critical, that’s the concern for authorities, as pointed by someone earlier, think 1% would overload our intensive care facilities.

So you can blindly believe the 2% which is based on assumptions .

You can believe the , thousands of cases are not being accounted for as they don’t get ill, but they spread it and if it’s true a major pandemic is unavoidable.

I keep being accused of PANIC.

I just see the data and read it differently.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:27 pm

I’n with you Lowbankclaret.
Looking at the facts this is a very serious problem which is not being taken seriously enough at present. Looks a farce on TV the Italian Police trying to stop the spread by manning roundabouts.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:31 pm

KellyClaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:57 pm
7 dead of 220 infected in Italy?
Thats a truly frightening statistic.
Even if all the other 213 infected recover (thats unlikely thats 3.4% death rate which if applied to UK popuation of 60% getting the virus would leave 1.3m dead.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by dsr » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:42 pm

KellyClaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:57 pm
7 dead of 220 infected in Italy?
I don't know about the first 6, but the seventh was an 80 year old man already in hospital having had a heart attack. He would have been vulnerable to any virus.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:43 pm

paulatky wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:27 pm
I’n with you Lowbankclaret.
Looking at the facts this is a very serious problem which is not being taken seriously enough at present. Looks a farce on TV the Italian Police trying to stop the spread by manning roundabouts.
We should probably bomb the **** out of Italy just to be on the safe side.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:47 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:50 pm
Why on gods green earth have you decided to believe anything from coming from China? They cannot be trusted in any shape or form after what happened to the whistle blowing doctor dying in them suspicious circumstances, I’ve only traded a handful of counter posts but I didn’t have you down as being that gullible, China will tell us anything we want to hear, whether that’s the truth is highly debatable, the undiagnosed cases are exactly that unknown so we don’t really know that the people that had fallen ill did have the virus & can’t claim a recovery from that, by the law of averages it’s fair to assume some could have had but far from 100% sure, didn’t watch the news at 6 but I’ll tune in to LBC later & listen to that no doubt it will get some sort of mention.
Strange then that the WHO who I'm sure know more about the situation than anyone on here, say that after a faltering start, China are doing everything possible to reduce infections. So much so that infections have been falling for over a week now all over China. Do you think the WHO is in China's pocket, because I don't.

The media loves a scare story and will continue to scare the uninformed. Don't join the panicking crowd.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:49 pm

(I actually suggested that if 0.1% needed high dependency care, the NHS would lose nearly all it's high dependency capacity to coronavirus. 1% would overwhelm it by a long way.)

I, too, see this as serious. That said, I'm not all that convinced about draconian quarantines/border shutdowns. We'd need to ask "With what aim?" If it is to contain the virus and snuff it out completely, like we managed with SARS, then yes, it would certainly be justified. But this seems unachievable from here.

If it is merely to slow down the spread, there would need to be a clear reason for slowing it down. I can think of 3 reasons: 1) to stagger the number of cases, so the health services are not overwhelmed by a surge. 2) to give time to develop and mass produce a vaccine (this will take several months) 3) to give time to mass produce chloroquine (which, despite early indications of success, might eventually prove an ineffective treatment).

The economic and social cost of putting tens (or even hundreds) of millions into enforced quarantine would be substantial, however. I think humanity has got it about right at the moment. That is, contain outbreaks where they occur to give time to learn more about what we're dealing with, but without completely collapsing the global economy.

It's a big call.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:49 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:40 pm
I know I will waste my time posting but your choosing data and values that support your thoughts and not opening your mind to data governments are concerned about and reacting too.

The data you quote assumes all active cases recover, perhaps you have heard of a cure that helps you support that data. Honestly how likely is that

Governments are reacting to the fact that 20% end up in intensive care, currently 9% of closed cases end up dead. Varies massively across the globe, that why they are reacting as they are.


Like I say I will have wasted my time, but hey ho.
My God, you do talk garbage.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by dsr » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:56 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:04 pm
Well once again I will try to explain the data.

WHO declare 2%, that’s a calculation of deaths per number of people are diagnosed with the virus. Valid calculation but it assumes all active cases recover and no one else dies who has it.

Closed cases, ie people who have either recovered or died is currently 91% recovered , 9% died. That’s slowly been coming down as expected.

Active cases are around 22% serious or critical, that’s the concern for authorities, as pointed by someone earlier, think 1% would overload our intensive care facilities.

So you can blindly believe the 2% which is based on assumptions .

You can believe the , thousands of cases are not being accounted for as they don’t get ill, but they spread it and if it’s true a major pandemic is unavoidable.

I keep being accused of PANIC.

I just see the data and read it differently.
The stats you are using are, I presume, the figures on the worldometer or something like them here,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

which currently show 77,345 cases in total in China, cumulative, since the outbreak began; 2,593 deaths, 25,066 recoveries, the rest still being treated. The population of Wuhan is over 10 million, which means that even if every single case in China was in Wuhan, still less than 1% of the population has caught it. Wouldn't that mean it doesn't spread all that easily?

On the other hand, if the rumours are correct and the actual rate of infection is say ten times the official figures, then the death rate suddenly drops by a factor of ten to less than 1%. Which is also good news.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:59 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:47 pm
Strange then that the WHO who I'm sure know more about the situation than anyone on here, say that after a faltering start, China are doing everything possible to reduce infections. So much so that infections have been falling for over a week now all over China. Do you think the WHO is in China's pocket, because I don't.

The media loves a scare story and will continue to scare the uninformed. Don't join the panicking crowd.
It's a slightly strange one from WHO is this. Until coronavirus, the theory was that even if you closed 99% of cross-border travel, you would only delay a global pandemic by about a month, and that it wasn't worth the economic impact of doing so (admittedly, this was for new flu pandemics, not coronavirus). Yet WHO are now going completely against their own historical advice by congratulating China for their - and credit where it's due - apparent remarkable success in slowing the virus down.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:01 am

dsr wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:56 pm
The stats you are using are, I presume, the figures on the worldometer or something like them here,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

which currently show 77,345 cases in total in China, cumulative, since the outbreak began; 2,593 deaths, 25,066 recoveries, the rest still being treated. The population of Wuhan is over 10 million, which means that even if every single case in China was in Wuhan, still less than 1% of the population has caught it. Wouldn't that mean it doesn't spread all that easily?

On the other hand, if the rumours are correct and the actual rate of infection is say ten times the official figures, then the death rate suddenly drops by a factor of ten to less than 1%. Which is also good news.
The idiot doesn't want facts, IT just wants to spread fear. As I keep saying, Flu kills 10,000 people a year in Britain alone, so why aren't people panicking about Flu with those numbers? Far higher than Covid -19, yet for some reason people are more scared of it than Flu. It's crazy.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:02 am

dsr wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:56 pm
The stats you are using are, I presume, the figures on the worldometer or something like them here,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

which currently show 77,345 cases in total in China, cumulative, since the outbreak began; 2,593 deaths, 25,066 recoveries, the rest still being treated. The population of Wuhan is over 10 million, which means that even if every single case in China was in Wuhan, still less than 1% of the population has caught it. Wouldn't that mean it doesn't spread all that easily?

On the other hand, if the rumours are correct and the actual rate of infection is say ten times the official figures, then the death rate suddenly drops by a factor of ten to less than 1%. Which is also good news.
Thats if the number of deaths so far is a true figure.

That number could be far far higher and I for one suspect it is.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:05 am

If it be your will wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:59 pm
It's a slightly strange one from WHO is this. Until coronavirus, the theory was that even if you closed 99% of cross-border travel, you would only delay a global pandemic by about a month, and that it wasn't worth the economic impact of doing so (admittedly, this was for new flu pandemics, not coronavirus). Yet WHO are now going completely against their own historical advice by congratulating China for their - and credit where it's due - apparent remarkable success in slowing the virus down.
Only remarkable if you discount the thousands of deaths they're hiding every day by burning the bodies...

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:05 am

paulatky wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:02 am
Thats if the number of deaths so far is a true figure.

That number could be far far higher and I for one suspect it is.
YOU suspect? Who are you then? Some super Guru who knowns more than anyone else including WHO.

You're an idiot, that's what you are.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:10 am

dsr wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:56 pm
The stats you are using are, I presume, the figures on the worldometer or something like them here,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

which currently show 77,345 cases in total in China, cumulative, since the outbreak began; 2,593 deaths, 25,066 recoveries, the rest still being treated. The population of Wuhan is over 10 million, which means that even if every single case in China was in Wuhan, still less than 1% of the population has caught it. Wouldn't that mean it doesn't spread all that easily?

On the other hand, if the rumours are correct and the actual rate of infection is say ten times the official figures, then the death rate suddenly drops by a factor of ten to less than 1%. Which is also good news.
Yes, I made this point earlier. This virus is either extremely infectious or it's very dangerous, but it can't be neither. The way it exploded in Italy I'm starting to think it's the former, and that there are indeed a great many unrecorded mild cases. The outcome of those on Diamond Princess will be a clear indicator, because literally everyone on it was screened.

Even a 1% case fatality rate would still be a really awful outcome, though. As bad as anything since Spanish Flu.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:26 am

Gordaleman wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:05 am
YOU suspect? Who are you then? Some super Guru who knowns more than anyone else including WHO.

You're an idiot, that's what you are.
Only time will tell and I truly hope it turns I am an idiot as the scenario I am right is really scary.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:30 am

paulatky wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:26 am
Only time will tell and I truly hope it turns I am an idiot as the scenario I am right is really scary.
Of course it is but you've no evidence to support your claims, only fear.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:36 am

Gordaleman wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:30 am
Of course it is but you've no evidence to support your claims, only fear.
Based in previous reporting within China on other matters.

Also going to cause chaos in world ecomomy. Companies and pension schemes in danger of going under. USA looking to cut interest rates in next few weeks to starve off recession. House prices under threat too

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:39 am

On your second point, yes, it will but that has absolutely NOTHING to do with the virus itself which seems to be dying in China. At least for now.

Bed time.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:50 am

Just found this, for those wondering what the definition of 'severe or critical' was. https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comm ... ame=iossmf . I assume it's right.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:27 am

FactualFrank wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:40 pm
I click on the thread, expecting updates. 9 times out of 10 it's a poster having a go at another.

This is a serious topic, can we please only update it it's worth reading (apart from this one).
If you're needing updates for some reason, this isn't the place to get them. Go somewhere sensible instead. And much of the "having a go" is usually of more value than what's being posted as information.

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