Covid-19

[thatdberight]

In shock news over night.

The World Health Organisation has announce the fatality rate is 3.4%.

In less shocking news, person who doesn't understand statistics still doesn't understand statistics.

[Bfcboyo]

Statistically speaking once the world has had 90 million confirmed cases the virus will have killed around 3 million people without a cure developed and as things currently stand.

Correct or not?

[Zlatan]

Statistically speaking once the world has had 90 million confirmed cases the virus will have killed around 3 million people without a cure developed and as things currently stand.

Correct or not?

Not, but I’ve given up trying to explain. Google it

[paulatky]

Please, please, PLEASE stop referring to the death rate of closed cases - it’s f#cking Jackanory levels of story telling and you clearly DO NOT understand what the stats mean. FFS how many more times does it need saying...

Zlatan ,you still have not explained why you think the stat of deaths to closed cases is not relevant and is a false figure. Please explain for me and others.

Overnight the WHO have indicated death rates may well be higher than they had previously predicted.

In other news Grumps has not responded to my offer of a wager to charity in my response to his statement that cases in the UK may well have already peaked.

[Paul Waine]

Johns Hopkins stats at 4:33 a.m.

Total cases: 93,158; Total Recovered 50,690; Deaths 3,198.

Enjoy you day. My hands are raw with all the hand washing.

[ClaretAndJew]

Everyone is going to die of Coronavirus

[Zlatan]

Zlatan ,you still have not explained why you think the stat of deaths to closed cases is not relevant and is a false figure. Please explain for me and others.

Overnight the WHO have indicated death rates may well be higher than they had previously predicted.

In other news Grumps has not responded to my offer of a wager to charity in my response to his statement that cases in the UK may well have already peaked.

I have, read the thread

[thatdberight]

Everyone is going to die of Coronavirus

LowBankClaret will be along to accuse you of underestimating the fatality rate shortly.

[paulatky]

Everyone is going to die of Coronavirus

Not everyone,I have told you a million times - dont exaggerate

Follow Neville Southall’s ex Everton goalie advice he tweeted ”forget all this washing hands,just wear gloves. I never caught anything when I wore mine”

[paulatky]

I have, read the thread

Would be far easier for you to copy and paste again. This thread is very long and its difficult to find it

[Bfcboyo]

Speaking to an expert yesterday he predicted the UK death rate will be higher than China as we have a higher percentage of the underlying health problems related to coronavirus being deadly.

[ClaretAndJew]

Speaking to an expert yesterday he predicted the UK death rate will be higher than China as we have a higher percentage of the underlying health problems related to coronavirus being deadly.

And what are those underlying health problems?

[Zlatan]

Would be far easier for you to copy and paste again. This thread is very long and its difficult to find it

There is a search facility

[Grumps]

Grumps saying it may well have peaked here.
I say its a long way off peaking.

No I didn't, I actually said nobody knows, at least get something right please.

[thatdberight]

And what are those underlying health problems?

We have an older population and that seems to be a significant factor. That doesn't require much expertise to calculate though. I'm sure it's extremely complex and there are many different facets but we seem to have a lower cardiovascular death rate than China (seems to be the biggest comorbidity) so, like you, I'm interested to see what these factors are.

[Zlatan]

Would be far easier for you to copy and paste again. This thread is very long and its difficult to find it

Here is my (theoretical) explanation as to why using the death rate from closed cases is misleading - yes it is purely hypothetical and the figures are manufactured, but only to demonstrate the point that the closed case death rate is not ever going to be accurate until all cases are closed.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=45071&p=1212691&hil ... s#p1212691

Here is the search facility in full use for how to find the post on this thread (I've been busy...)
search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&keyw ... 4&start=50

Others have highlighted (on numerous occasions) that quoting the "(f)actual" death rates is disingenuous because it does not include any records of the unknown amount of people who may or may not have been infected - you cant just ignore that. There are experts in the field who still insist that the actual death rate is much lower that the 2% or 3% that is being reported - but we just don't know the actual figures because the number of unknowns is (by the very nature of being unknown, unknown!). These same experts have used statistical models from vast amounts of historical data to model the Infection Fatality Rate, and the last time I looked it was somewhere between 0.4% and 1%

Now, I may have mocked posters on this thread for not understand after many attempts to explain have passed by, but I have taken the virus and it's affects seriously - if you look through my posts I am fairly sure you'll see that and you'll also see that I have stated that there's not much any individual can do apart from good personal hygiene.

[uptheclarets]

Like with a lot of things the best advice must be

“ Hope for the best ,but plan for the worst”

[paulatky]

No I didn't, I actually said nobody knows, at least get something right please.

Anyone with an ounce of common would not think it has peaked already.

That what you said” we dont know it hasnt peaked alreay “ or words to that effect.

99.99999% of people must realise it hasnt peaked yet

Put your money where your mouth is

[paulatky]

We'll all be dead by Easter thanks to this virus.

Now thats just being silly.

As someone said above hope for the best but plan for the worst

[Stayingup]

BBC has just confirmed we are going tio have an epidemic and in the words of Nick Robinson Society will shut down. I hope that includes the BBC.

[paulatky]

The affect on the economy will also be very serious and affect all our lives in one way or another.

[Zlatan]

after asking me for the info, you could at least acknowledge that I gave you what you asked for and perhaps offer a comment on it.

[thatdberight]

The affect on the economy will also be very serious and affect all our lives in one way or another.

effect*

Not that I necessarily agree with you. Central bankers saying global economic growth would be reduced this year. They are not saying, "We will all be eating grass by Christmas."

[Jakubclaret]

effect*

Not that I necessarily agree with you. Central bankers saying global economic growth would be reduced this year. They are not saying, "We will all be eating grass by Christmas."

Nobody can really say for sure regarding the financial institute's what the long term affects will be! It will effect the industry sectors differently.

[paulatky]

after asking me for the info, you could at least acknowledge that I gave you what you asked for and perhaps offer a comment on it.

Thanks Zlatan but I cant always reply straight away,

Yes I agree with you that the larger the sample size the more reliable the result.

But in the meantime the figure is still valid.

Back in the day I got a degree in computational and statistical science !!

[Zlatan]

Thanks Zlatan but I cant always reply straight away,

Yes I agree with you that the larger the sample size the more reliable the result.

But in the meantime the figure is still valid.

Back in the day I got a degree in computational and statistical science !!

I think that as you have a degree in computation and statistical science you would have understood without asking for my explanation. The fact that you consider the figure to be valid brings your qualification into question.

[thatdberight]

Nobody can really say for sure regarding the financial institute's what the long term affects will be! It will effect the industry sectors differently.

effects*
affect*

FFS

[thatdberight]

Thanks Zlatan but I cant always reply straight away,

Yes I agree with you that the larger the sample size the more reliable the result.

But in the meantime the figure is still valid.

Back in the day I got a degree in computational and statistical science !!

The figure is valid in the sense that it is correctly constructed and tells us something. It's the use it's being put to that's not valid. You should know that with your background. Such laxity, misunderstanding or duplicity with statistical information is commonplace.

[Gordaleman]

People are still getting agitated over the fact that there are now approximately fifty cases in the UK, yet those figures are so misleading. The vast majority of those fifty are people who have been brought back to the UK from other parts of the world and went straight into isolation. At least eight have recovered and gone home and should no longer be counted.

The three or four cases for which there is no known source, may well have had contact with people from abroad, it just hasn't been found yet.

The chances at the moment, of person to person spread of Covid-19 are extremely low.

All this hysteria and fear is ridiculous anyway, as in most cases, people get very better quickly and are then probably immune to further infection.

STOP PANICKING.

[Claretmatt4]

Currently in Venice and although its very quiet you wouldn't know anything was going on. Being in the midst of it and then reading the news you can see a lot of it feels exaggerated and sensationalist.

Were being extra careful with hand washing and hand sanitisers but not panicking and seems like the same can be said for the natives.

[Bfcboyo]

And what are those underlying health problems?

Mainly weak whining feeble liberals. And Vegans don't stand a chance.

[tiger76]

Not everyone,I have told you a million times - dont exaggerate

Follow Neville Southall’s ex Everton goalie advice he tweeted ”forget all this washing hands,just wear gloves. I never caught anything when I wore mine”

Now come on Southall wasn't that bad was he ,this is typical gallows humour,which is one way of coping with this issue.

I haven't read through the whole of this thread,but some of the hysterical headlines in the tabloids aren't helping,yes this infection will cause disruption,and possible economic effects,and sadly some people will die,but it's not the plague,and modern healthcare is more than capable of curbing the spread,as long as the public take heed of the advice and apply common sense.

A fact that may have been mentioned already,more people die in a single day from TB,than the entire death toll of coronavirus,keep some perspective.

[Spijed]

it's not the plague

You mean people won't be walking down the streets with carts, ringing a bell, saying "Bring out yer dead, bring out yer dead"?

[Lowbankclaret]

Here’s the case rate outside of China.
It’s not an absolute true exponential curve, the measures are slowing its spread. But it still a bad news graph.

C516D31C-3B41-4E63-BB92-CDCFE86B4B82.png (254.2 KiB) Viewed 1842 times

[Grumps]

Currently in Venice and although its very quiet you wouldn't know anything was going on. Being in the midst of it and then reading the news you can see a lot of it feels exaggerated and sensationalist.

Were being extra careful with hand washing and hand sanitisers but not panicking and seems like the same can be said for the natives.

We've just been within 200yds of the hotel in Tenerife, all normal, no panic buying, the local press just report the facts, only trouble is at some point I'll have to come back to UK.

[thatdberight]

Currently in Venice and although its very quiet you wouldn't know anything was going on. Being in the midst of it and then reading the news you can see a lot of it feels exaggerated and sensationalist.

Were being extra careful with hand washing and hand sanitisers but not panicking and seems like the same can be said for the natives.

Wish I had some time off at the minute. I'd love to get round some of those cities, which I love, without the usual throng.

[Zlatan]

Wish I had some time off at the minute. I'd love to get round some of those cities, which I love, without the usual throng.

looks like a good time to go - can get a flight to Venice from London for cheaper than it costs me in petrol to do a return trip to Burnley from London.

[Gordaleman]

looks like a good time to go - can get a flight to Venice from London for cheaper than it costs me in petrol to do a return trip to Burnley from London.

That's the spirit. I did the same sort of thing a month after 9/11. Me and my ex got dirt cheap flights to New York because everybody was panicking then as well.

Went to see Phantom of the opera on Broadway and there were so few people visiting, we were given the best seats in the house as a free upgrade. The cast came on stage at the end, and thanked the very small audience for visiting New York at such a terrible time.

Chin up everyone. Every cloud has a silver lining.

[Jakubclaret]

effects*
affect*

FFS

I know I was doing it on purpose

[thatdberight]

I know I was doing it on purpose

porpoise*

[Jakubclaret]

porpoise*

Dolphins aren't suffering the effects now are there?

[Clarinetclaret]

Yes, those diseases MIGHT have a vaccine but they STILL kill the figures I quoted. I don't understand your argument at all. What you seem to be saying is that because a disease might have a vaccine, it doesn't matter that it kills people. Huge amounts of people, yet we don't panic about them.

Everybody is praying for a vaccine for Covid-19, as though that would be a miracle cure, yet other diseases WITH vaccines still kill millions of people. Covid-19 has only killed 3,000 in the entire world.

As for the fear, that's the fear of the unknown. Covid-19 is a new pathogen and governments are wary. That doesn't mean they know anything, it just means that they are being careful. Now get a grip of your knickers and stop panicking.

I definitely dont understand your logic. You're quoting horrendous figures and these diseases have a vaccine. So what could the figures end up for a highly contagious disease like covid 19 that has no vaccine?
Covid 19 has killed 3000 so far. You quote that as if it is the final figure. And as you seem a bit thick I told you I'm not panicking at all. Everything is the same. I'm not going to be wearing a face mask or staying indoors.
So all these government institutions who have access to thousands of top level experts should just really consult with Gordaleman. It would save them millions of pounds.
Let's face it people at the top level know the potential of this virus. It could just peter out but the governments are better overreacting than doing nothing.
But with the information these people have access to they obviously deem it necessary to lock down towns and cities, ban large gatherings and Italy is proposing closing all schools and colleges temporarily among other measures.
So answer the question. Where did you get your medical credentials because you seem to know more than all these experts?
And in more news the BBC announce that Gordaleman is to be appointed head of the World Health Organistion.

[paulatky]

Now come on Southall wasn't that bad was he ,this is typical gallows humour,which is one way of coping with this issue.

I haven't read through the whole of this thread,but some of the hysterical headlines in the tabloids aren't helping,yes this infection will cause disruption,and possible economic effects,and sadly some people will die,but it's not the plague,and modern healthcare is more than capable of curbing the spread,as long as the public take heed of the advice and apply common sense.

A fact that may have been mentioned already,more people die in a single day from TB,than the entire death toll of coronavirus,keep some perspective.

We all know TB kills more per day at the moment but as I keep saying we are in the very early of this virus.

Interesting to read the comments about the stage show in New York being very quiet.

Also my son who is trying to sell his house to move to a bigger place was told just this morning by his estate agent that the market had completely dried up as people were reluctant to buy because of the virus and the uncertainly of jobs and hours available.
He advised my son to wait a while as the bigger house he was looking for would become a lot cheaper.

My son was very surprised as like so many people he feels its a storm in a tea cup.

The site below always has the upto date picture

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[paulatky]

looks like a good time to go - can get a flight to Venice from London for cheaper than it costs me in petrol to do a return trip to Burnley from London.

All inclusive cruises are at an all time but I am not prepared to risk it. A forthright’s cruise could become a 6 week nightmare if there were 14 days in quarantine and then another 14 days when returning to UK

[Gordaleman]

I definitely dont understand your logic. You're quoting horrendous figures and these diseases have a vaccine. So what could the figures end up for a highly contagious disease like covid 19 that has no vaccine?
Covid 19 has killed 3000 so far. You quote that as if it is the final figure. And as you seem a bit thick I told you I'm not panicking at all. Everything is the same. I'm not going to be wearing a face mask or staying indoors.
So all these government institutions who have access to thousands of top level experts should just really consult with Gordaleman. It would save them millions of pounds.
Let's face it people at the top level know the potential of this virus. It could just peter out but the governments are better overreacting than doing nothing.
But with the information these people have access to they obviously deem it necessary to lock down towns and cities, ban large gatherings and Italy is proposing closing all schools and colleges temporarily among other measures.
So answer the question. Where did you get your medical credentials because you seem to know more than all these experts?
And in more news the BBC announce that Gordaleman is to be appointed head of the World Health Organistion.

Your sarcasm knows no bounds, does it? I can't help it you believe that some new pathogen is automatically going to kill millions, just because it's new. It's not.

Oh, and I have heard the latest figures with cases in Britain going up to 85, and I'm STILL not worried, even though I'm in the 'At risk' group both in terms of age and underlying health conditions.

The 'Experts' are concerned of course and they will always project worst case scenarios to cover themselves if things go wrong. SARS blew itself out without too much fuss and I believe this will too. In fact, I flew to Malaysia at the height of the SARS outbreak and had a marvellous holiday. If I could afford to, I'd be flying there again right now, as I'm not easily scared. Obviously, you are and I almost feel sorry for you.

[Zlatan]

This virus is nothing compared with some diseases we don't panic about. Flu kills 650,000 every year, including 10,000 in the UK. Malaria kills 400,000 people every year. TB kills 40,000 people every single DAY.

Try to keep a sense of perspective.

Of course flu is "controlled" to an extent and it helps with the long term mortality rate of pensioners who are an increasing drain on all 1st world societies, and Malaria and TB don't really affect 1st world countries do they, so our governments aren't really worried about them either. The problem with Covid-19 is that we have no current methods of controlling it or a vaccine for it, and that introduces unknowns into the equation, and its the unknowns that 1st world governments are afraid of - hence the media focus and state of panic that is in place for this. It might get worse, it may not - the fact that the outcome is unknown to an extent means that governments are genuinely concerned about it (and by no means am I saying that millions will die like others are stating). But don't kid yourselves that they're concerned for the populace, they're concerned for the economy - as it's that which grants them power.

Right - conspiracy theory published, back to washing my hands and for the record, I personally think that this will be marginally worse than the impact of normal seasonal flu, but absolutely nowhere near an Ebola outbreak that some predict.

[Clarinetclaret]

The chances at the moment, of person to person spread of Covid-19 are extremely low.

Meanwhile the CDC have said that the virus that causes Covid 19 is spreading easily and sustainably in the community(community spread).
Gordaleman now knows better than the CDC. Your spread ofmisinformation is more pathetic than the people panic buying.

[Gordaleman]

Meanwhile the CDC have said that the virus that causes Covid 19 is spreading easily and sustainably in the community(community spread).
Gordaleman now knows better than the CDC. Your spread ofmisinformation is more pathetic than the people panic buying.

Totally out of context. I was referring to the fact that most Covid-19 patients are in isolation, so very little likelyhood of person to person contact.

Sorry if that didn't help your fear agenda.

[Gordaleman]

Of course flu is "controlled" to an extent and it helps with the long term mortality rate of pensioners who are an increasing drain on all 1st world societies, and Malaria and TB don't really affect 1st world countries do they, so our governments aren't really worried about them either. The problem with Covid-19 is that we have no current methods of controlling it or a vaccine for it, and that introduces unknowns into the equation, and its the unknowns that 1st world governments are afraid of - hence the media focus and state of panic that is in place for this. It might get worse, it may not - the fact that the outcome is unknown to an extent means that governments are genuinely concerned about it (and by no means am I saying that millions will die like others are stating). But don't kid yourselves that they're concerned for the populace, they're concerned for the economy - as it's that which grants them power.

Right - conspiracy theory published, back to washing my hands and for the record, I personally think that this will be marginally worse than the impact of normal seasonal flu, but absolutely nowhere near an Ebola outbreak that some predict.

Unfortunately, because of the increase in spitting in this country, we are now seeing TB cases here, having eradicated it here in the 50s / 60s.

The biggest problem in this country is the media frenzy about Covid-19. People are panicking totally unnecessarily at this time and that panic is far worse than the virus itself.

[thatdberight]

All inclusive cruises are at an all time but I am not prepared to risk it. A forthright’s cruise could become a 6 week nightmare if there were 14 days in quarantine and then another 14 days when returning to UK

A fortnight on a cruise is already a nightmare.