Covid-19

[ClaretAndJew]

3.4% global death rate currently, according to the WHO.

We're all dead.

[martin_p]

3.4% global death rate currently, according to the WHO.

We're all dead.

Yeah, but the Who have always wanted people to die before they get old so they’re probably exaggerating.

[Gordaleman]

As UTC is predominently a football web site, perhaps this might be of interest?

Coronavirus: Premier League writes to clubs to offer advice

Last Updated: 04/03/20 12:31pm

The Premier League has offered its support to clubs amid coronavirus fears

The Premier League has written to its 20 clubs, advising on the latest contingency plans to deal with the spread of coronavirus.
League officials are liaising daily with the government's public health experts to provide up-to-the-minute advice on how best to counteract the spread of the virus.

Fixtures lists and kick-off times remain unaffected.

However, clubs have been asked to consider the implications if the government were to ban large gatherings, leading to matches being played behind closed doors.

For now, the league says it's 'Business As Usual' - but advises officials to raise hygiene levels at their stadiums and training grounds to protect fans as well as players and staff.

NO PANIC THERE THEN.

[Gordaleman]

3.4% global death rate currently, according to the WHO.

We're all dead.

Are you not very good at maths then? 3.4% death rate means 96.6% alive rate.

How does that mean "We're all dead."?

[Dy1geo]

“but advises officials to raise hygiene levels at their stadiums”

Does that mean we might get running hot water in the men’s toilets and hand sanitizers in the Bob Lord stand

[ClaretAndJew]

Are you not very good at maths then? 3.4% death rate means 96.6% alive rate.

How does that mean "We're all dead."?

Because look at the numbers man. The figures. The stats. The key. The death rate. It's there. It's all a conspiracy to keep us down!

[Gordaleman]

“but advises officials to raise hygiene levels at their stadiums”

Does that mean we might get running hot water in the men’s toilets and hand sanitizers in the Bob Lord stand

I would certainly be good to see more than one sink at the Jimmy Mac end of the Bob Lord.

[ClaretAndJew]

Has anyone got any tinned food spare?

[Gordaleman]

Because look at the numbers man. The figures. The stats. The key. The death rate. It's there. It's all a conspiracy to keep us down!

You are talking crazy. I guess you're very easily scared by 'Big Brother' eh?

Get a life. Go out and make a few friends. Shake hands with them, you'll be totally safe.

[ClaretAndJew]

You are talking crazy. I guess you're very easily scared by 'Big Brother' eh?

Get a life. Go out and make a few friends. Shake hands with them, you'll be totally safe.

What's friend mean? I've never touched a person in my life.

[Gordaleman]

Has anyone got any tinned food spare?

Tins from other people? Aren't you scared they will be contaminated?

[ClaretAndJew]

Tins from other people? Aren't you scared they will be contaminated?

Tin doesn't absorb diseases.

[AlargeClaret]

It’s hardly the Black Death is it

[Gordaleman]

Tin doesn't absorb diseases.

What about the paper labels? Oh, and your wrong about tin. The only metal that germs can't live on is Silver.

[Gordaleman]

It’s hardly the Black Death is it

Precisely. I don't think we'll be writing a nursey rhyme for Covid-19.

Ring-a-ring o' roses,
A pocket full of posies,
A-tishoo! A-tishoo!
We all fall down

[ClaretAndJew]

What about the paper labels? Oh, and your wrong about tin. The only metal that germs can't live on is Silver.

Silver is a solidified gas not a metal.

[Gordaleman]

Silver is a solidified gas not a metal.

Just what planet are you from again?

Silver is a chemical element with the symbol Ag (from the Latin argentum, derived from the Proto-Indo-European h₂erǵ: "shiny" or "white") and atomic number 47. A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal.

[ClaretAndJew]

Just what planet are you from again?

Silver is a chemical element with the symbol Ag (from the Latin argentum, derived from the Proto-Indo-European h₂erǵ: "shiny" or "white") and atomic number 47. A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal.

Look you can put your science back in your science box. People are allowed to believe what they want.

[Grumps]

85 in this country have it, probably none will die, so what's the mortality rate in this country ?

[FactualFrank]

Boris has said people will be able to claim statutory sick pay from day one, should they be required to self-isolate at home. Which is of course good as it means people won't force themselves to go into work and spread it, in fear they won't get paid.

[FactualFrank]

The pet dog of a coronavirus patient in Hong Kong has been confirmed to be infected with the disease, in a likely case of human-to-animal transmission, authorities said on Wednesday, news agencies have reported.

The canine, which belongs to a 60-year-old woman patient, had repeatedly tested "weak positive" for the new coronavirus since Friday, when it was quarantined at an animal centre.

The city's Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said repeated tests suggest the dog - a pomeranian - has "a low-level of infection".

The AFCD said experts from universities and the World Organisation for Animal Health have unanimously agreed that "it is likely to be a case of human-to-animal transmission".

The pomeranian has not shown any Covid-19 symptoms the AFCD said.

All pets of people in Hong Kong infected with the coronavirus will be quarantined for 14 days, starting Friday, authorities have ruled. Two dogs are already in isolation.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... -covid-19/

[Grumps]

Boris has said people will be able to claim statutory sick pay from day one, should they be required to self-isolate at home. Which is of course good as it means people won't force themselves to go into work and spread it, in fear they won't get paid.

Also means a large percentage of the lazy and workshy will be off tomorrow

[FactualFrank]

Also means a large percentage of the lazy and workshy will be off tomorrow

I suspect they'll have to be tested positive first.

[thatdberight]

Look you can put your science back in your science box. People are allowed to believe what they want.

[thatdberight]

Boris has said people will be able to claim statutory sick pay from day one, should they be required to self-isolate at home. Which is of course good as it means people won't force themselves to go into work and spread it, in fear they won't get paid.

SSP. £20 a day. Not going to help really, is it?

[thatdberight]

85 in this country have it, probably none will die, so what's the mortality rate in this country ?

100% of them will die.

[Zlatan]

When it's affecting the food chain - that's when we really need to worry...

[thatdberight]

When it's affecting the food chain - that's when we really need to worry...

There is absolutely nothing, apart from a bit of short-term panic buying, that suggests the food chain could be threatened. Look at your local retail offering. How much of it is non-food? How much of the logistics chain would have to be disrupted before you'd get to foodstuffs instead of all the unnecessary tat that infects our high streets? There's nothing in any report about that which suggests that.

Unless of course your Korean in which case the news about the Pomeranian in Hong Kong is bad news...

[Grumps]

I suspect they'll have to be tested positive first.

Not sure it says that.

[Grumps]

When it's affecting the food chain - that's when we really need to worry...

It would only have an impact if people believe the utter rubbish in the media

[FactualFrank]

Not sure it says that.

Hence the word 'suspect', as it doesn't say either way.

All I've read is: Boris Johnson has also confirmed that under emergency legislation due to be introduced, employees will be able to claim statutory sick pay from day one, should they be required to self-isolate at home.

[thatdberight]

Not sure it says that.

You're right Grumps. If you have the symptoms and have gone through 111 and are self-isolating because of that, you're exactly the sort of person they want to stay away from work and you won't have been confirmed.

[FactualFrank]

I'd sooner people don't take the necessary risks and stay home, even if they haven't yet been tested. Better be safe than sorry.

[Zlatan]

Unless of course your Korean in which case the news about the Pomeranian in Hong Kong is bad news...

...should've used a smiley...

[Grumps]

I'd sooner people don't take the necessary risks and stay home, even if they haven't yet been tested. Better be safe than sorry.

Why? What if they haven't been to a risk area ,but just have a common cold? Take up the time of the overworked NHS to be diagnosed, or carry on like we've done every other year

[CombatClaret]

"Nobody should be penalised for doing the right thing" - PM

I look forward to an emergency fund or private rent freeze for the self employed or zero hours employees who have to self isolate then.

[FactualFrank]

Why? What if they haven't been to a risk area ,but just have a common cold? Take up the time of the overworked NHS to be diagnosed, or carry on like we've done every other year

Cool. We'll agree to disagree.

[Grumps]

"Nobody should be penalised for doing the right thing" - PM

I look forward to an emergency fund or private rent freeze for the self employed or zero hours employees who have to self isolate then.

Why would they self isolate?

[Grumps]

Cool. We'll agree to disagree.

Or just keep calm

[Spijed]

I'd sooner people don't take the necessary risks and stay home, even if they haven't yet been tested. Better be safe than sorry.

What are your thoughts on playing football matches?

[Grumps]

I sneazed today in Tenerife, nobody batted an eyelid, reading this forum had I done that in Burnley, I'd have sick pay, self isolating, and unable to shake hands with anyone , though I doubt if be added to the 95.....remind me again what percentage of the population that is?

[FactualFrank]

What are your thoughts on playing football matches?

I'd sooner stay at home and watch. I'm too old to play.

[thatdberight]

I sneazed today in Tenerife, nobody batted an eyelid, reading this forum had I done that in Burnley, I'd have sick pay, self isolating, and unable to shake hands with anyone , though I doubt if be added to the 95.....remind me again what percentage of the population that is?

I can confirm that people are sneezing in the UK in work and social environments and it's not causing a meltdown. Yes, there are a few people who I'm sure are at that level of panic but they're few and far between.

[CombatClaret]

Why would they self isolate?

Exactly, hundreds of thousands won't.

[Gordaleman]

I'm self isolating until Friday night.

Why am I self isolating? Simple, it's too bloody cold to go out unnecessarily.

On Friday though, I'm going to the comedy night at Nelson Cricket Club. I'll be mingling with friends, male and female and if they want to shake hands or give me a kiss, I won't be stopping them.

Maybe I'll have a Gin and Tonic though as Quinine has been shown to help fight Covid-19 in some tests. That will be my contribution to science.

And of course, I'll be on the Turf on Saturday evening in very close proximity with thousands of others. I guess I must be mad, eh?

[thatdberight]

To avoid unnecessary repetition on this thread, it would be ideal if anyone whose replies start, "It's only..." just set their threshold of infections / deaths that are in the "It's only" category.

Then when it's all over with less than this threshold they can come back with a hearty "told you so" or they can come back with a revised stance if less fortunate circumstances transpire.

[Grumps]

To avoid unnecessary repetition on this thread, it would be ideal if anyone whose replies start, "It's only..." just set their threshold of infections / deaths that are in the "It's only" category.

Then when it's all over with less than this threshold they can come back with a hearty "told you so" or they can come back with a revised stance if less fortunate circumstances transpire.

I'd love to know what this meant

[damo_whitehead]

The new James Bond film "no time to die" has been put back to November, now I am annoyed!

[Lowbankclaret]

Here is my (theoretical) explanation as to why using the death rate from closed cases is misleading - yes it is purely hypothetical and the figures are manufactured, but only to demonstrate the point that the closed case death rate is not ever going to be accurate until all cases are closed.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=45071&p=1212691&hil ... s#p1212691

Here is the search facility in full use for how to find the post on this thread (I've been busy...)
search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&keyw ... 4&start=50

Others have highlighted (on numerous occasions) that quoting the "(f)actual" death rates is disingenuous because it does not include any records of the unknown amount of people who may or may not have been infected - you cant just ignore that. There are experts in the field who still insist that the actual death rate is much lower that the 2% or 3% that is being reported - but we just don't know the actual figures because the number of unknowns is (by the very nature of being unknown, unknown!). These same experts have used statistical models from vast amounts of historical data to model the Infection Fatality Rate, and the last time I looked it was somewhere between 0.4% and 1%

Now, I may have mocked posters on this thread for not understand after many attempts to explain have passed by, but I have taken the virus and it's affects seriously - if you look through my posts I am fairly sure you'll see that and you'll also see that I have stated that there's not much any individual can do apart from good personal hygiene.

Even the World Health Org state they could not find evidence that lots of people were infected and not detected in China.

They also claim China are really good at keeping people alive where Italy and Iran are not so good.

Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:

"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]

People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]

China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."

[thatdberight]

Even the World Health Org state they could not find evidence that lots of people were infected and not detected in China.

They also claim China are really good at keeping people alive where Italy and Iran are not so good.

Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:

"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]

People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]

China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."

I wish I'd kept the link I read this morning; Aylward's comments about the lack of hidden cases were immediately contradicted by, I think, one of the lead scientists in Canada ...