Covid-19

[Zlatan]

Lowbankclaret, I’m not sure of the point you’re trying to make, but I think it’s in relation to experts saying that there isn’t a large amount of people going unnoticed who have the virus. Consider this, there’s been over 16000 people tested in the UK (who could easily have not been tested) and to date on 87 people have the virus. I’d say 16000 uninflected people is a really large number compared to the 87 who have it.

[Lowbankclaret]

I wish I'd kept the link I read this morning; Aylward's comments about the lack of hidden cases were immediately contradicted by, I think, one of the lead scientists in Canada ...

Did he go to China with the group???

[Lowbankclaret]

Lowbankclaret, I’m not sure of the point you’re trying to make, but I think it’s in relation to experts saying that there isn’t a large amount of people going unnoticed who have the virus. Consider this, there’s been over 16000 people tested in the UK (who could easily have not been tested) and to date on 87 people have the virus. I’d say 16000 uninflected people is a really large number compared to the 87 who have it.

I am not trying to make a point.
But he had been to China and says there no evidence of loads people with mild symptoms .

As normal one posters says that’s not true. So who knows.

The main point I will say is we are about 7-10 days behind Italy according to the experts on TV, I kind of agree.

Let’s see people’s opinions when it’s increasing at 500-700 a day in 7-10 days time.

[Zlatan]

I am not trying to make a point.
But he had been to China and says there no evidence of loads people with mild symptoms .

As normal one posters says that’s not true. So who knows.

The main point I will say is we are about 7-10 days behind Italy according to the experts on TV, I kind of agree.

Let’s see people’s opinions when it’s increasing at 500-700 a day in 7-10 days time.

That’s kind of the problem with “mild symptoms” in that most people I know who have a little sniffle just take some paracetamol and get on with it and don’t attribute it to a “deadly” virus so there won’t be any evidence to show for it - that’s the point...

[paulatky]

Boris has said people will be able to claim statutory sick pay from day one, should they be required to self-isolate at home. Which is of course good as it means people won't force themselves to go into work and spread it, in fear they won't get paid.

How many people will self isolate more than once and how many will take those days off without any real reason.
Having to pay sick pay without any productivity will kill off many small businesses putting people on the dole

[paulatky]

Not sure it says that.

Wow Grumps we agree on something.
After today I bet you are glad you didnt take up my wager

Maybe it has peaked already looks rather silly now

[Gordaleman]

You can do anything you like with numbers. As they say, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Here's a very good point made by an 'Expert' on Channel 4 news tonight. He said the rise to 85 cases could be one of two things. 1. The infection is out of the containment phase. 2. We are just getting better at tracing infected people.

Of course, the doomsters on here will say it's No 1.

One thing that skews the figures though is that people who have had the virus and got better, are still being included in the number of infections. Why? I had Flu about 15 years ago. It doesn't mean that I'm infectious now. So why are they still being counted?

Here's another point made by the same expert. He said that cancelling major sporting fixtures would be pointless. His point was that if an infected person is in the crowd, he or she would only, at most, infect two or three people around him, and he would do that wherever he was. The same logic applies to the London Underground and other means of mass travel. The exception is possibly air travel, where air is continually recycled throughout the cabin.

[thatdberight]

As normal one posters says that’s not true. So who knows.

Not in this case at all. Very credible view - just not the only one in the scientific community.

[Lowbankclaret]

That’s kind of the problem with “mild symptoms” in that most people I know who have a little sniffle just take some paracetamol and get on with it and don’t attribute it to a “deadly” virus so there won’t be any evidence to show for it - that’s the point...

Here in the UK 100 surgeries have been testing everyone with flu like symptoms, only one case found.

We have tested several thousand people and only one case.

If it’s correct there are thousands of people walking with it the actual cases will go exponential very quickly and As I pointed out several times contact tracing is a complete waste of time.

You cannot have it both ways.

You cannot believe contact tracing is going to work at solving this at the same time as claiming thousands are walking around infecting people. It’s illogical.

[paulatky]

I sneazed today in Tenerife, nobody batted an eyelid, reading this forum had I done that in Burnley, I'd have sick pay, self isolating, and unable to shake hands with anyone , though I doubt if be added to the 95.....remind me again what percentage of the population that is?

More than double a week ago.
Do that calculation for the next 18 weeks and see what figure you get.

[Lowbankclaret]

Not in this case at all. Very credible view - just not the only one in the scientific community.

So I think your saying an expert sat in Canada disagrees with an expert who went to China to investigate this virus.

[paulatky]

You can do anything you like with numbers. As they say, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Here's a very good point made by an 'Expert' on Channel 4 news tonight. He said the rise to 85 cases could be one of two things. 1. The infection is out of the containment phase. 2. We are just getting better at tracing infected people.

Of course, the doomsters on here will say it's No 1.

One thing that skews the figures though is that people who have had the virus and got better, are still being included in the number of infections. Why? I had Flu about 15 years ago. It doesn't mean that I'm infectious now. So why are they still being counted?

Here's another point made by the same expert. He said that cancelling major sporting fixtures would be pointless. His point was that if an infected person is in the crowd, he or she would only, at most, infect two or three people around him, and he would do that wherever he was. The same logic applies to the London Underground and other means of mass travel. The exception is possibly air travel, where air is continually recycled throughout the cabin.

It would slow the spread down buying valuable time for find a possible vaccine.
It would help to reduce the swell of the initial wave to help to reduce a steep increase in the numbers needing hospital care in the near future.

The government has a conflict between personal health and economic health.

For personal health reasons a slow spread is better but for economic health a quick spread would be better.

Just leant that a friend has been invited to Cheltenham next week in a hospitality box as someone has dropped out because of the virus fears. We are going Tuesday as one last party before starting a period of social isolating.

[uptheclarets]

More than double a week ago.
Do that calculation for the next 18 weeks and see what figure you get.

Wow just done that calculation
24,000,000. I had to check at 3 times.

Shows how potentially dangerous this could be.

Guess its like doubling up at a Casino when you lose and running out of money after starting small.

Only in this its your life on the line

[Lowbankclaret]

I struggle to understand why people cannot read the data.
The R zero of this virus is 2-3, that’s an exponential curve, I did post earlier today. As people ignored I wonder I’d they understood it.

So simply put.

1 , 2 , 4 , 8 , 16, 32 , 64 , 128 , 256 , 512 , 1024 , 2048. Etc.

So the contact tracing suggests it slows the spread. It also shows we are only days behind Italy .

If you want to argue that there more people out there spreading this, this curve/ amounts accelerate. The data does not support that hypothesis.

It supports the gov claim it slows the virus spread.

[thatdberight]

So I think your saying an expert sat in Canada disagrees with an expert who went to China to investigate this virus.

Like I say, I wish I'd kept the link. Then I could give you something more substantial to read.

[Lowbankclaret]

Like I say, I wish I'd kept the link. Then I could give you something more substantial to read.

Like I have pointed out, if that’s true the exponential infection rate accelerates.

It does not stand up to logic.

Nor would the Chinese rates of infection be reducing.

But you believe your logic, I Will happily accept what the data is saying.

[thatdberight]

Like I have pointed out, if that’s true the exponential infection rate accelerates.

It does not stand up to logic.

Nor would the Chinese rates of infection be reducing.

But you believe your logic, I Will happily accept what the data is saying.

I didn't say I believed it. I thought it was worth pointing out. I'm not sure if you believe logic, data or fucktard-only conspiracy theories today.

[Lowbankclaret]

I didn't say I believed it. I thought it was worth pointing out. I'm not sure if you believe logic, data or fucktard-only conspiracy theories today.

No matter what I say , you will argue the opposite.

So how many people do you think are walking around the UK more than those declared??

[thatdberight]

No matter what I say , you will argue the opposite.

So how many people do you think are walking around the UK more than those declared??

You're now getting paranoid. When I disagree with you, you'll know because I say so. When I say there was another credible view that I thought might be interesting I'll say that. There appear to be some credible scientists saying that there are fewer undiscovered cases in the population than had been previously thought as the transmission rates and mechanisms are studied.

[Zlatan]

No matter what I say , you will argue the opposite.

Tried that and you do too

[paulatky]

Reports tonight that Flybe will fold within days.

Also reports that the 111 service is overloaded and it can not cope.

Unbelievable after todays developments that people are still saying there is nothing to worry about.

Guess myself and Lowbank are like CHristopher Columbus saying the world is round when all the rest are saying its flat despite all the evidence

[Zlatan]

Penny yet to drop I fear...

[UnderSeige]

There are a number of different vaccines in the pipeline.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... -drug-cure

These are predominantly from US biotech companies. The leading contender at the moment looks to be a company called Moderna in conjunction with the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). They are poised to enter phase 1 trials in humans in the next few months. If successeful this would be" the debut of a new, fast-to-develop vaccine technology". (Source: Barney Graham, the deputy director of the Vaccine Research Center at NIAID).

Other companies developing vaccines include:

• Inovio Pharmaceuticals and its partner Beijing Advaccine Biotechnology

• The biotech CureVac

• Johnson & Johnson

• Sanofi Pasteur

• GSK in conjunction with Clover Biopharmaceuticals and the University of Queensland

There are also a number of antivirals and immune system boosters on the way.

CNBC are reporting that "Regeneron CEO hopes to have coronavirus treatment ready for human testing possibly by this summer".
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/regener ... ugust.html

The Daily Mail are also reporting that human trials might start as early as next month. There is also a short video clip in the following link in which Donald Trump is pressing the companies for a 'fast track solution'.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... UK-US.html

[ClaretAndJew]

Reports tonight that Flybe will fold within days.

Also reports that the 111 service is overloaded and it can not cope.

Unbelievable after todays developments that people are still saying there is nothing to worry about.

Guess myself and Lowbank are like CHristopher Columbus saying the world is round when all the rest are saying its flat despite all the evidence

No one ever thought the Earth was flat and Columbus wasn't an innovator in that field.

[thatdberight]

Reports tonight that Flybe will fold within days.

Also reports that the 111 service is overloaded and it can not cope.

Unbelievable after todays developments that people are still saying there is nothing to worry about.

Guess myself and Lowbank are like CHristopher Columbus saying the world is round when all the rest are saying its flat despite all the evidence

Even for this forum, "Poster sees himself as a Christopher Columbus for our age" probably breaks new ground in self-importance.

Oh and you should know that nobody with any education believed the earth was flat in the 15th century. So it doesn't even work as a reference.

[ClaretAndJew]

Reports tonight that Flybe will fold within days.

Also reports that the 111 service is overloaded and it can not cope.

Unbelievable after todays developments that people are still saying there is nothing to worry about.

Guess myself and Lowbank are like CHristopher Columbus saying the world is round when all the rest are saying its flat despite all the evidence

Plato wrote about the Earth being spherical in the 5th century.

1400+ years before Columbus!

[Lowbankclaret]

I am not paranoid at all.

Statistically speaking due to this being an exponential virus if it followed that unhindered.

The whole population would be infected in the next 31 days.

If as is claimed there are significant numbers infected not traced that number of days reduces .

So if the gov is right it will peak around two months from now.

If you guys are right that there are hundreds of cases not found, it will be in a few weeks.

[thatdberight]

I am not paranoid at all.

Statistically speaking due to this being an exponential virus if it followed that unhindered.

The whole population would be infected in the next 31 days.

If as is claimed there are significant numbers infected not traced that number of days reduces .

So if the gov is right it will peak around two months from now.

If you guys are right that there are hundreds of cases not found, it will be in a few weeks.

What's an "exponential virus"?

[mdd2]

Just to cheer Gordavale up the Chinese according to the Mail say that two strains of the virus are now in circulation due to mutations (which are common in these RNA beasties). The more virulent one does however seem to be infected fewer people than before die to the severity of illness it causes.
I await confirmation by the BBC

[dsr]

I am not paranoid at all.

Statistically speaking due to this being an exponential virus if it followed that unhindered.

The whole population would be infected in the next 31 days.

If as is claimed there are significant numbers infected not traced that number of days reduces .

So if the gov is right it will peak around two months from now.

If you guys are right that there are hundreds of cases not found, it will be in a few weeks.

And what happens when this exponential virus has to stop expanding? It's all very well to say it doubles every week, but sooner or later you have to stop doubling because you reach the situation where everyone has already had it twice and will have it twice more next week. Have you got a more sensible exponential function with a "stop", or at least a "slow down" button?

[paulatky]

What's an "exponential virus"?

One person will directly infect 2.6 other people.

[Zlatan]

One person will directly infect 2.6 other people.

What is .6 of a person?

[thatdberight]

One person will directly infect 2.6 other people.

Yes. I know that's the average.

Viruses spread exponentially. Calling it an "exponential virus", apart from being the sort of meaningless half-formed gibberish that makes up most of that poster's ramblings, is a tautology that has just been thrown in to make it sound more ominous.

[Jakubclaret]

It's even affecting local takeaways, I knew it wouldn't take long, people are very suspicious at the best of times with food.
https://www.burnleyexpress.net/news/peo ... ay-2069515

[Taffy on the wing]

How many people will self isolate more than once and how many will take those days off without any real reason.
Having to pay sick pay without any productivity will kill off many small businesses putting people on the dole

Precisely the attitude that will ensure it spreads!

[Taffy on the wing]

Reports tonight that Flybe will fold within days.

Also reports that the 111 service is overloaded and it can not cope.

Unbelievable after todays developments that people are still saying there is nothing to worry about.

Guess myself and Lowbank are like CHristopher Columbus saying the world is round when all the rest are saying its flat despite all the evidence

Christopher Columbus brought Disease and destruction to the New World!
He was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of millions of people......give it up fella!

[Granny WeatherWax]

It's even affecting local takeaways, I knew it wouldn't take long, people are very suspicious at the best of times with food.
https://www.burnleyexpress.net/news/peo ... ay-2069515

That just proves how stupid people really are.

[Jakubclaret]

That just proves how stupid people really are.

Some people are just ultra wary & even more so as it’s a new thing & relatively unknown.

[Granny WeatherWax]

Some people are just ultra wary & even more so as it’s a new thing & relatively unknown.

Like those people not buying Corona. Unbelievably dense.

[Jakubclaret]

Like those people not buying Corona. Unbelievably dense.

Nowt as queer as folk.

[UpTheClaretsFCBK]

Reports tonight that Flybe will fold within days.

Also reports that the 111 service is overloaded and it can not cope.

Unbelievable after todays developments that people are still saying there is nothing to worry about.

Guess myself and Lowbank are like CHristopher Columbus saying the world is round when all the rest are saying its flat despite all the evidence

There isn't anything to worry about, those problems are being caused by people who refuse to believe there's nothing to worry about.

Fatality rate of 3.4%, all either elderly or have other recurring health issues.

94.6% of people who get the virus will make a full and usually quick recovery and there's a vaccine expected within 2 to 3 months, with various companies starting human trials within the next 30 days.

At very worst, this outbreak is going to be mildly disruptive to the vast majority of people.

It's not judgement day.

[ClaretinJapan]

I wouldn't worry too much about sneezes. Everyone is sneezing here in Japan - it's hay fever season. The main symptoms are a fever followed by a cough and if you're unfortunate or high risk, pneumonia.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -symptoms/

Notably, the COVID-19 infection rarely seems to cause a runny nose, sneezing, or sore throat (these symptoms have been observed in only about 5% of patients). Sore throat, sneezing, and stuffy nose are most often signs of a cold.

[Bfcboyo]

There isn't anything to worry about, those problems are being caused by people who refuse to believe there's nothing to worry about.

Fatality rate of 3.4%, all either elderly or have other recurring health issues.

94.6% of people who get the virus will make a full and usually quick recovery and there's a vaccine expected within 2 to 3 months, with various companies starting human trials within the next 30 days.

At very worst, this outbreak is going to be mildly disruptive to the vast majority of people.

It's not judgement day.

I
At worst it kills our elderly sick relatives and costs us financially with companies closing and the economy grinding to a halt. The rushed drug trials dont get the time they need and affects newborns during pregnancy.
The virus has a slight mutation and becomes serious with a 50 50 death rate and starts to take our families away. Riots for food and supplies break out with many deaths as the human race falls apart. Government's tumble and city's crumble. A new world forms from the wreckage of our old society a desolate , raw and gritty place like the old wild west.

I'm staying positive about it all.

[Zlatan]

nothing like a targeted virus to solve the pension crisis

[paulatky]

What is .6 of a person?

Similar to 0.6 of a goal in spread betting terms.

Thought you were up to speed with statistics

[Zlatan]

Similar to 0.6 of a goal in spread betting terms.

Thought you were up to speed with statistics

[Zlatan]

World heading for economic crisis as 0.00001 % of planet’s population falls ill

stock market coronavirus
As stock markets continue to slide, airlines go out of business and companies warn of panic buying, everyone has been reminded that just 0.00001% of the planet’s population have taken ill with Covid-19.

With the World Health Organisation insisting that the confirmed cases of Covid-19 around the world currently represent just 92,000 out of a population of 7.7 billion, 90% of which are in one country, everyone has decided nonetheless to lose their collective minds.

Global stock markets have lost $7 trillion in value in the last couple of weeks, representing over $70 million for every single confirmed case around the world.

Simon Williams told us, “I don’t know anyone who has it, and nobody in our town knows anyone who has it, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good move to buy every single toilet roll on the shelf this morning.

“I also sold all of the shares that I own, and spent the entire proceeds buying gold. When the economy eventually collapses – probably sometime next week – it will be good to have all of my wealth tied into something with intrinsic value that I can carry around the woods with me while I look for shelter.

“I feel sorry for everyone tied up in bitcoin – good luck trading that for a piece of semi-fresh roadkill at the local barter stations that will inevitably pop-up across the country.”

Meanwhile, the government has asked people not to panic, right after telling them that the army is primed to step in to control things if it all gets out of hand.

Political analyst Jake Matthews told us, “People need to maintain perspective, and look on the bright side. If the economy does tank a little this year, it’s going to make it much harder for Donald Trump to get a second term.”

However, non-morons have reminded everyone to just wash their hands more regularly and that in all likelihood, they will be just fine.

https://newsthump.com/2020/03/05/world- ... nRNmNeRR5E

[paulatky]

The difficulty is stopping it spreading.
For instance one of the confirmed cases in West Yorkshire went to be tested at LGI.
You dont get the results straight away. She was told to go home and self isolate whilst awaiting the results.

What did she do - went to the supermarket to do a big shop !!!’

[NottsClaret]

Tell you what, I'm beginning to have my doubts about the veracity of the boomers' claims that they loved a bit of hardship and danger back in the day. A nasty flu bug does the rounds and they're absolutely losing their s**t.

Got to love the fact all the 'snowflake' millennials, hipsters and kids today are pretty much unaffected by it. But all the old timers, reminiscing about the Blitz spirit they never saw, are pretty much dependent on the youngsters not spreading it around and wiping them out.

[Zlatan]

The difficulty is stopping it spreading.
For instance one of the confirmed cases in West Yorkshire went to be tested at LGI.
You dont get the results straight away. She was told to go home and self isolate whilst awaiting the results.

What did she do - went to the supermarket to do a big shop !!!’

I see idiots everywhere... you're right about this though what did she think she was doing! On one of my Facebook groups for a medical condition, there's a post regarding a phlebotomist who thinks she may have contracted the virus (showing symptoms as far as I could tell) and she was asking whether she should stay at work or go home, the mind boggles sometimes.

It occurred to me that a hospital is probably a dangerous place in regards to the Covid-19 virus with people like this on the planet...