Covid-19

[Zlatan]

apparently we're at phase 2 now (Delay)... looks like Phase 1 (contain) was a resounding success...

but the chart below is interesting reading:

ViruesOutbreaks.JPG (80.47 KiB) Viewed 2851 times

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... oss-the-uk

[Gordaleman]

Tell you what, I'm beginning to have my doubts about the veracity of the boomers' claims that they loved a bit of hardship and danger back in the day. A nasty flu bug does the rounds and they're absolutely losing their s**t.

Got to love the fact all the 'snowflake' millennials, hipsters and kids today are pretty much unaffected by it. But all the old timers, reminiscing about the Blitz spirit they never saw, are pretty much dependent on the youngsters not spreading it around and wiping them out.

I think you have that the wrong way round. Older people have seen it all before and are pretty blase about the situation. We've lived through far worse than this, as the chart that Zlatan has just posted proves.

It's not the baby boomers that can't live without their phones (Online all the time.) and it's not the baby boomers that are posting all the scare stories either.

[Gordaleman]

Can't see any point in stopping people attending mass gatherings, like football matches. If you think about it logically, if one person with Covid-19 attended a match, he's only likely to infect a few people sat very close to him, not the entire gate. The same applies to mass transport like the London Underground. The infected person is not going to infect the whole system.

Meanwhile, even though I'm quite old and suffer from severe heart disease, I'll be going to the 'Comedy Night' at Nelson Cricket Club tomorrow night with friends, who aren't scared either.

England's Chief Medical Officer said this morning that the upper mortallity rate is unlikely to be more than 1% and probably a lot less. That's because the WHO figures of 3.4% only includes REPORTED cases and not the multitude of cases that are very mild and go unreported.

Stop spreading malicious scaremongering gossip.

[Paul Waine]

It's not the baby boomers that can't live without their phones (Online all the time.) and it's not the baby boomers that are posting all the scare stories either.

I guess we've all seen/heard the advice to wash our hands ("happy birthday to me...." x 2). When will we get advice about cleaning our phones and other such "personal essentials?" Add, wallets/purses, handbags/backpacks, credit cards etc etc.

[Gordaleman]

I guess we've all seen/heard the advice to wash our hands ("happy birthday to me...." x 2). When will we get advice about cleaning our phones and other such "personal essentials?" Add, wallets/purses, handbags/backpacks, credit cards etc etc.

By the sound of things, you don't need that advice as you've already thought about it. Just use a dettol type spray. (Other brands are available, he he.)

[Vintage Claret]

All this panic buying does seem a bit silly although I must admit I did order a little extra toilet paper in my weekly Sainsbury's home delivery..

[Paul Waine]

Can't see any point in stopping people attending mass gatherings, like football matches. If you think about it logically, if one person with Covid-19 attended a match, he's only likely to infect a few people sat very close to him, not the entire gate. The same applies to mass transport like the London Underground. The infected person is not going to infect the whole system.

Meanwhile, even though I'm quite old and suffer from severe heart disease, I'll be going to the 'Comedy Night' at Nelson Cricket Club tomorrow night with friends, who aren't scared either.

Thing is, Gordal (what is your favoured abbreviation btw?), when the one person at the game infects 2 others - and, let's assume the first one then "gets sick" and doesn't go out again, the 2 newly infected football fans are still out and about, and if each of them shares their virus with 2 others, each, we are starting a chain of infection.

Take care of yourself. I'm 66, 4 years now since my heart attack, so I've got cardiovascular disease for the rest of my natural (but, will otherwise say I feel I'm in very good health). If you are similar profile, report I saw a couple of days back said fatalities were a little above 10% for male, over 60 and cardio disease.

I'm going skiing in Austria next week.

[thatdberight]

Can't see any point in stopping people attending mass gatherings, like football matches. If you think about it logically, if one person with Covid-19 attended a match, he's only likely to infect a few people sat very close to him, not the entire gate. The same applies to mass transport like the London Underground. The infected person is not going to infect the whole system.

Meanwhile, even though I'm quite old and suffer from severe heart disease, I'll be going to the 'Comedy Night' at Nelson Cricket Club tomorrow night with friends, who aren't scared either.

England's Chief Medical Officer said this morning that the upper mortallity rate is unlikely to be more than 1% and probably a lot less. That's because the WHO figures of 3.4% only includes REPORTED cases and not the multitude of cases that are very mild and go unreported.

Stop spreading malicious scaremongering gossip.

Your 1% figure is, as it always has been, the sort of number the experts are saying - although the WHO does not seem to believe that there are huge numbers of unreported cases (their latest fieldwork published yesterday). The science is still unclear and various experts (and they are scientists of some credibility) are regularly contradicting each other.

You do need to brush up on exponentials though - the spread will be very quick. Not that it changes the outcome much (other than the pressure on services being more severe due to numbers) but the "only 1 or 2" becomes a very large number after a short number of cycles. Grains of rice on a chessboard. That old tale.

[Gordaleman]

Thing is, Gordal (what is your favoured abbreviation btw?), when the one person at the game infects 2 others - and, let's assume the first one then "gets sick" and doesn't go out again, the 2 newly infected football fans are still out and about, and if each of them shares their virus with 2 others, each, we are starting a chain of infection.

Take care of yourself. I'm 66, 4 years now since my heart attack, so I've got cardiovascular disease for the rest of my natural (but, will otherwise say I feel I'm in very good health). If you are similar profile, report I saw a couple of days back said fatalities were a little above 10% for male, over 60 and cardio disease.

I'm going skiing in Austria next week.

Think about it this way. If games are postponed, that same infected person might go shopping instead. Going from shop to shop infecting even more people. At least at a match, he would be in one place for a couple of hours.

Please note what the Chief Medical Officer said this morning. It's in my earlier post.

I'm 72 and I'm seeing my doctor tomorrow over suspected heart failure, which could mean new heart valves or even the possibility of a transplant. I'm a prime candidate for Covid-19 but you won't see me panicking any time soon.

Thanks for your concern and good wishes. Take care and enjoy the skiing.

[Gordaleman]

Your 1% figure is, as it always has been, the sort of number the experts are saying - although the WHO does not seem to believe that there are huge numbers of unreported cases (their latest fieldwork published yesterday). The science is still unclear and various experts (and they are scientists of some credibility) are regularly contradicting each other.

You do need to brush up on exponentials though - the spread will be very quick. Not that it changes the outcome much (other than the pressure on services being more severe due to numbers) but the "only 1 or 2" becomes a very large number after a short number of cycles. Grains of rice on a chessboard. That old tale.

Except that exponentials with disease are not grains of rice. If that was the case, China's figures would not be falling and everyone in the whole world would already be infected.

Oh, and it's not MY 1 % figure it's the CMO who says that's probably too high.

[thatdberight]

Except that exponentials with disease are not grains of rice. If that was the case, China's figures would not be falling and everyone in the whole world would already be infected.

Stop picking and choosing stats that suit your your fear agenda.

The difference is that nobody intervened to stop the grains of rice growing exponentially. Mathematically they're the same. I was right last time I said. You're none too bright.

I don't have a "fear agenda". I've been consistently following the science which has always said broadly you're now saying (after you saying it was not a problem at all). I've been saying it since the start of the thread.

[Gordaleman]

The difference is that nobody intervened to stop the grains of rice growing exponentially. Mathematically they're the same. I was right last time I said. You're none too bright.

You're just like a person who thinks if he shouts loudest, it means he's right. That's not the case, and calling people names does not give you any credibility at all.

You're just a fearmonger and I can't understand what goes on in the brain of someone like you.

You're exactly what people don't need in a mini crisis.

[thatdberight]

You're just like a person who thinks if he shouts loudest, it means he's right. That's not the case, and calling people names does not give you any credibility at all.

You're just a fearmonger and I can't understand what goes on in the brain of someone like you.

You're exactly what people don't need in a mini crisis.

No. I'm somebody who's tried to understand and has quoted the best science (which is constantly developing) since the start.

You can't even read that my views on this have been pretty much the same as yours are now, since the start of the thread.

You, on the other hand, are still trying to persuade yourself it's trivial and having to constantly move towards what the science is saying from a starting position of dismissing it out of hand.

[Gordaleman]

No. I'm somebody who's tried to understand and has quoted the best science (which is constantly developing) since the start.

You can't even read that my views on this have been pretty much the same as yours are now, since the start of the thread.

You, on the other hand, are still trying to persuade yourself it's trivial and having to constantly move towards what the science is saying from a starting position of dismissing it out of hand.

I've read so many views on this that it's sometimes confusing who has written what, but if your views are similar to mine, then calling people "None too bright" is not the best way to get a good response.

Also, claiming that I've called the outbreak trivial, is a total misrepresentation of what I've said. I have consistently called it serious but nowhere near as bad as Flu, which still kills 10,000 a year in the UK, despite there being a vaccine.

[thatdberight]

I've read so many views on this that it's sometimes confusing who has written what, but if your views are similar to mine, then calling people "None too bright" is not the best way to get a good response.

Also, claiming that I've called the outbreak trivial, is a total misrepresentation of what I've said. I have consistently called it serious but nowhere near as bad as Flu, which still kills 10,000 a year in the UK, despite there being a vaccine.

And that's where you're wrong.

The flu, if left unchecked, would be much less serious than if we left this virus unchecked. We may get a combination of factors that mean less people die of this novel disease than a flu season but that does mean that the disease itself is less serious. The actions being taken let you know that. And yes, the lack of a vaccine is a part of that but it's not the large part.

[The Enclosure]

I certainly hope that the club are busy installing a lot more sinks with a plentiful supply of hot water.Dread to think of the germs floating around at half time in the bogs when very few people wash their hands after having a pee ,then go straight to the kiosks to buy a pie or hot dog.

[Gordaleman]

And that's where you're wrong.

The flu, if left unchecked, would be much less serious than if we left this virus unchecked. We may get a combination of factors that mean less people die of this novel disease than a flu season but that does mean that the disease itself is less serious. The actions being taken let you know that. And yes, the lack of a vaccine is a part of that but it's not the large part.

Well let's agree to disagree. Flu is one of the most dangerous diseases known to man and if we didn't have a vaccine against it, it would kill hundreds of thousands every year. Flu also mutates on a regular basis, which is why there is an updated flu jab every year. I know, I have one every year.

There is no evidence that because this virus spreads easily, that it's more lethal than Flu. There is also no evidence to suggest it might mutate either.

Let's assume that we end up with 1,00,000 cases in Britain, OK? That's only 20 people per town and it's highly unlikely that you will ever know about them. That's why I think people are going way over the top with this.

[Gordaleman]

I certainly hope that the club are busy installing a lot more sinks with a plentiful supply of hot water.Dread to think of the germs floating around at half time in the bogs when very few people wash their hands after having a pee ,then go straight to the kiosks to buy a pie or hot dog.

Getting this virus on your hands is not a problem as your skin is a wonderful defence mechanism. The problem comes if you then transfer the virus to your nose or mouth. Simple answer. Wash your hands regularly and then try really hard, not to touch your face.

[dsr]

The difference is that nobody intervened to stop the grains of rice growing exponentially. Mathematically they're the same. I was right last time I said. You're none too bright.

I don't have a "fear agenda". I've been consistently following the science which has always said broadly you're now saying (after you saying it was not a problem at all). I've been saying it since the start of the thread.

And mathematically, we run out of rice before we reach the end of the chessboard just as we run out of people to infect with Cornavirus. Your simple exponential function is wrong. It may be simplistically true for the first part of the series or it may not - but you need to produce something that is right, not wrong, before we can take it over-seriously.

[thatdberight]

And mathematically, we run out of rice before we reach the end of the chessboard just as we run out of people to infect with Cornavirus. Your simple exponential function is wrong. It may be simplistically true for the first part of the series or it may not - but you need to produce something that is right, not wrong, before we can take it over-seriously.

So you don't think viruses spread exponentially?

There's too much defensiveness on both sides of the debate on here. A virus spreads exponentially. That's a medical and mathematical fact. Rather than assuming what I mean by that in terms of deaths or impact, why not just agree the fact? I'm happy to agree the obvious fact that, like the old rice tale, you quickly run out grains / people. (And in fact I don't hear any epidemiologist saying everyone would contract this virus).

[Gordaleman]

So you don't think viruses spread exponentially?

There's too much defensiveness on both sides of the debate on here. A virus spreads exponentially. That's a medical and mathematical fact. Rather than assuming what I mean by that in terms of deaths or impact, why not just agree the fact? I'm happy to agree the obvious fact that, like the old rice tale, you quickly run out grains / people. (And in fact I don't hear any epidemiologist saying everyone would contract this virus).

Viruses may spread exponentially but only for so long. If they continued in the way you described, then everyone in the world would have had the virus by now (We are way past 64 squares on a chessboard.) Instead, in China, the virus is slowing, not expanding and that's even though they had a lot of sick people before they realised it was a new virus.

Everyone else had prior warning and was able to prepare. Therefore, by default, infections should be less and and total cases less in percentage terms.

[thatdberight]

Viruses may spread exponentially but only for so long. If they continued in the way you described, then everyone in the world would have had the virus by now (We are way past 64 squares on a chessboard.) Instead, in China, the virus is slowing, not expanding and that' even though they had a lot of sick people before they realised it was a new virus.

Everyone else had prior warning and was able to prepare. Therefore, by default, infections should be less and and total cases less in percentage terms.

"Exponentially" doesn't imply any particular speed.

But, yes, if no action had been taken we'd have had a much worse situation. And, hopefully, the actions we're taking, even though they're much less stringent than the Chinese took, will continue this trend.

[Grumps]

If only Google didn't exist.....the medical profession has no experts on this virus , yet uptheclarets has many

[evensteadiereddie]

Thing is, Gordal (what is your favoured abbreviation btw?), when the one person at the game infects 2 others - and, let's assume the first one then "gets sick" and doesn't go out again, the 2 newly infected football fans are still out and about, and if each of them shares their virus with 2 others, each, we are starting a chain of infection.

Take care of yourself. I'm 66, 4 years now since my heart attack, so I've got cardiovascular disease for the rest of my natural (but, will otherwise say I feel I'm in very good health). If you are similar profile, report I saw a couple of days back said fatalities were a little above 10% for male, over 60 and cardio disease.

I'm going skiing in Austria next week.

Which resort, Paul ?

[Gordaleman]

"Exponentially" doesn't imply any particular speed.

But, yes, if no action had been taken we'd have had a much worse situation. And, hopefully, the actions we're taking, even though they're much less stringent than the Chinese took, will continue this trend.

Just remember this. China has a population of 1.435 Billion people, and so far only 80,000 have had, or got the virus. That's only 0.0057 % of the entire Chinese population, unless my maths are badly out. Tell me then how that fits in with your theory given that China has had this virus longer than anyone else? Surely, the whole country should have it ten times over by now?

[thatdberight]

Just remember this. China has a population of 1.435 Billion people, and so far only 80,000 have had, or got the virus. That's only 0.0057 % of the entire Chinese population, unless my maths are badly out. Tell me then how that fits in with your theory given that China has had this virus longer than anyone else? Surely, the whole country should have it ten times over by now?

Exponentially doesn't imply any particular speed of transmission. That's a really simple concept. Why do you say everyone would have had it by now? What's your maths?

If the R zero is 2.6 (I think that's c. the latest number) and there's a 7 day period before you become infectious (the experts seem to be changing their mind on this one having previously said cases were infectious while asymptomatic) then we'd only expect to be at 400,000 cases by now in any case. Of course it's very sensitive to any of those assumptions being different. Such is the nature of exponential calculations.

You also keep jumping between base case (no intervention) and actuality (lots of intervention). You can't prove that the risk is low based on the cases after intervention.

[paulatky]

Another 40 confirmed cases today. The highest number in any one day.
All in different parts of the country and has now reached Cornwall. The strategy of tracing all contacts of those testing positive has now passed and all that we can do is try to slow the spread to give time to find a vaccine.

As for the Chinese numbers can we really believe them ?

Economic health suffereed today aswell, Flybe ,reports of sharp fall in oil usage ( good news for motirists) and oil price falling,lack of people looking to move house, sharp decline in advertising revenue

The genie really has left the bottle.

[Gordaleman]

Exponentially doesn't imply any particular speed of transmission. That's a really simple concept. Why do you say everyone would have had it by now? What's your maths?

If the R zero is 2.6 (I think that's c. the latest number) and there's a 7 day period before you become infectious (the experts seem to be changing their mind on this one having previously said cases were infectious while asymptomatic) then we'd only expect to be at 400,000 cases by now in any case. Of course it's very sensitive to any of those assumptions being different. Such is the nature of exponential calculations.

You also keep jumping between base case (no intervention) and actuality (lots of intervention). You can't prove that the risk is low based on the cases after intervention.

I was talking about the chessboard and pieces of rice concept, when I said everyone in China would have it by now.

As it is, no-one knows what will happen with this virus in the future, but what everyone DOES know, is that the rate of infection in China is slowing dramatically, with a very, very low nationwide infection rate.

I'm sure that the same thing will happen here over the next month or two. A dramatic rise, followed by an equally dramatic fall, because a virus can't infect those already infected no matter how hard it tries. Plus, those who have it early and recover, will likely have immunity to this particular strain. (That's not to preclude the possibility of mutations in future years.) Although other Corona Viruses haven't mutated that way so far as I know.

[Grumps]

Another 40 confirmed cases today. The highest number in any one day.
All in different parts of the country and has now reached Cornwall. The strategy of tracing all contacts of those testing positive has now passed and all that we can do is try to slow the spread to give time to find a vaccine.

As for the Chinese numbers can we really believe them ?

Economic health suffereed today aswell, Flybe ,reports of sharp fall in oil usage ( good news for motirists) and oil price falling,lack of people looking to move house, sharp decline in advertising revenue

The genie really has left the bottle.

So is that just over 100 in the UK? Of which how many are expected to die ?

[Gordaleman]

Another 40 confirmed cases today. The highest number in any one day.
All in different parts of the country and has now reached Cornwall. The strategy of tracing all contacts of those testing positive has now passed and all that we can do is try to slow the spread to give time to find a vaccine.

As for the Chinese numbers can we really believe them ?

Economic health suffereed today aswell, Flybe ,reports of sharp fall in oil usage ( good news for motirists) and oil price falling,lack of people looking to move house, sharp decline in advertising revenue

The genie really has left the bottle.

Just don't confuse the virus with the economic effects. They are totally different.

As for whether we can believe the Chinese figures? Well the WHO does.

[Lowbankclaret]

Think about it this way. If games are postponed, that same infected person might go shopping instead. Going from shop to shop infecting even more people. At least at a match, he would be in one place for a couple of hours.

Please note what the Chief Medical Officer said this morning. It's in my earlier post.

I'm 72 and I'm seeing my doctor tomorrow over suspected heart failure, which could mean new heart valves or even the possibility of a transplant. I'm a prime candidate for Covid-19 but you won't see me panicking any time soon.

Thanks for your concern and good wishes. Take care and enjoy the skiing.

Sorry to hear of your condition.

Hope things go ok at the doctors.

I saw my cardiologist on Monday, he said very high risk for me. I will still be on the turf Sat.

But I have requested to be able to work from home.

[Gordaleman]

Sorry to hear of your condition.

Hope things go ok at the doctors.

I saw my cardiologist on Monday, he said very high risk for me. I will still be on the turf Sat.

But I have requested to be able to work from home.

Thanks for your concern.

Think about this for a minute and then put things in perspective.

There are 49,000 citys, towns and villages in Britain. If a million people get Covid 19, (Unlikely, as that is ten times as many as China.) that translates to 20 people in each of those communities on average. The likekyhood is, that if that scenario plays out, you won't even know anyone who has it, never mind contract it yourself.

[Gordaleman]

So is that just over 100 in the UK? Of which how many are expected to die ?

Probably none.

[Bfcboyo]

Probably none.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51759602

Doh

[Lowbankclaret]

And what happens when this exponential virus has to stop expanding? It's all very well to say it doubles every week, but sooner or later you have to stop doubling because you reach the situation where everyone has already had it twice and will have it twice more next week. Have you got a more sensible exponential function with a "stop", or at least a "slow down" button?

The stop button is people’s normal immunity, I honestly don’t want to come across as treating you inappropriately, if I do I apologise in advance.

The body learns about a virus and fights it off naturally. If you get reinfected the body sees it quickly and reacts to protect you.

The only way you get ill again is when the virus mutates, then the body takes time to learn all over again.

A vaccine imitates the virus to teach the body what this virus looks like without making you too ill, so if you get infected the body reacts quickly to rid the body of the virus.


Hope that makes sense.

[thatdberight]

Probably none.

That aged well

[Lowbankclaret]

Yes. I know that's the average.

Viruses spread exponentially. Calling it an "exponential virus", apart from being the sort of meaningless half-formed gibberish that makes up most of that poster's ramblings, is a tautology that has just been thrown in to make it sound more ominous.

So whilst agreeing the virus spreads exponentially, you use my poor English to attack me once again.

In my defence it made sense after two bottle of Chardonnay and I didn’t spot my bad English.

[thatdberight]

So whilst agreeing the virus spreads exponentially, you use my poor English to attack me once again.

In my defence it made sense after two bottle of Chardonnay and I didn’t spot my bad English.

No. I'm attacking your flawed logic. You're another one confusing "exponential" with "immediate". Where is your logic that says we'd all have it in a month. What's your assumption on how many people, incubation period, whether you're infectious before, during or after illness? Exponential is just a mathematical progression. How fast this happens depends on the medicine.

[Gordaleman]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51759602

Doh

No, not Doh! Read the article, it looks like he died of something else having only just been tested positive for Covid 19.

[FactualFrank]

So whilst agreeing the virus spreads exponentially, you use my poor English to attack me once again.

Can't you just add each other to the ignore list and, well, ignore each other?

[thatdberight]

No, not Doh! Read the article, it looks like he died of something else having only just been tested positive for Covid 19.

You do know that very few of the deaths anywhere are of people with no other conditions, don't you? This, like your favourite comparison flu, is a factor in the deaths of many with other conditions while being solely responsible for a smaller number.

[thatdberight]

Can't you just add each other to the ignore list and, well, ignore each other?

So when people say, "Fake news shouldn't go unchallenged" do they not mean it?

[Grumps]

Why do the British, led by the press panic so much. I saw a headline the other day....confirmed virus cases double overnight......it had gone from 2 to 4 !!!!
Here in Tenerife they only report the facts, what has happened, and the procedures put in place, hence no panic, the supermarkets are fully stocked, schools are open, and there's no experts on football forums telling everybody the world's going to end.

[Gordaleman]

You do know that very few of the deaths anywhere are of people with no other conditions, don't you? This, like your favourite comparison flu, is a factor in the deaths of many with other conditions while being solely responsible for a smaller number.

You might think I'm stupid but I'm not. Look how many older people fall, break a hip, then end up dying of Pnumonia. The cause of death isn't given as a broken hip, even though they wouldn't have died otherwise. Look what the trust said about this particular patient. "The Royal Berkshire NHS Trust said they were an "older patient" who had been "in and out of hospital for non-coronavirus reasons". As he had only just been diagnosed with Covid 19, it's far more likely, his underlying health condition would have killed him even if he hadn't got Covid 19. It's likely, this poor man's death certificate will NOT give cause of death as Covid 19.

[Lowbankclaret]

No. I'm attacking your flawed logic. You're another one confusing "exponential" with "immediate". Where is your logic that says we'd all have it in a month. What's your assumption on how many people, incubation period, whether you're infectious before, during or after illness? Exponential is just a mathematical progression. How fast this happens depends on the medicine.

To be fair, I didn’t want to try to introduce all the other variables, it’s just going to cause even more arguments.

As you will hopefully agree.
There’s time from infection to being infectious.
Time from infection to showing symptoms.
It appears time from test sample to result is 48 hours.


If you really want to have a go at understanding it download plague the game.

Apparently the WHO bought the code as it really good at modelling outbreaks of this nature.

A friend of mine who has played this a lot says to me.

Currently the Government will have modelled this, they are not interested in how many people die.

They are trying to manage the peak infection point and minimise the economic impact.

[thatdberight]

If you really want to have a go at understanding it download plague the game.

Apparently the WHO bought the code as it really good at modelling outbreaks of this nature.

Source? (There won't be one because either you made it up or believed someone else who did).

The writers don't seem to think it's a tool for the current issue...
https://www.pcgamesinsider.biz/news/703 ... -outbreak/

[Paul Waine]

Which resort, Paul ?

Bad Hofgastein.

And they had 6 inches of snow earlier this week!

[Paul Waine]

Why do the British, led by the press panic so much. I saw a headline the other day....confirmed virus cases double overnight......it had gone from 2 to 4 !!!!
Here in Tenerife they only report the facts, what has happened, and the procedures put in place, hence no panic, the supermarkets are fully stocked, schools are open, and there's no experts on football forums telling everybody the world's going to end.

Hi Grumps, you might enjoy this report in The Washington Post:

How coronavirus spread in New York: From a man to his family. Then a neighbor. Then friends.

NEW YORK — First, a lawyer who commutes between the suburbs and his midtown Manhattan office was diagnosed with the coronavirus. Then, his wife and two children tested positive, along with a neighbor who drove him to the hospital.

By Wednesday afternoon, another friend, his wife and three of their children were also infected.

In the span of 48 hours, what began as one family’s medical crisis had spiraled well beyond their Westchester County home, shuttering Jewish schools and synagogues and crystallizing the virus’s power to propel anxiety across a region that is among the nation’s most densely populated.

While Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) urged calm, news of the virus’s latest victims spread through close-knit Orthodox communities in the family’s hometown of New Rochelle and across New York City, where pockets of Jews frequent the same kosher restaurants and attend the same schools, weddings, bar mitzvahs and funerals.

“People think it’s Armageddon and they’re never going to leave their house again,” said Josh Berkowitz, the owner of Eden Wok, a kosher Asian fusion restaurant in New Rochelle. Most of his customers are quarantined to see if they develop symptoms of the virus. His employees have been making deliveries, setting the food outside without coming into contact with the people behind the front door.

“I’m nervous as much as anyone else,” Berkowitz said. “We always sanitize and clean. We’re just being a little more diligent. Sanitizers are nowhere to be found. You can’t get them [for] miles and miles and miles, if they’re even available.”

As the number of coronavirus cases reached 11 in New York, officials sought to reassure transit riders that it remains safe to travel the region’s vast network of subway and suburban train lines. There was “no indication” that “casual contact,” such as riding a subway with someone who is sick, is “going to increase the risk to everyday New Yorkers,” said Oxiris Barbot, the city’s health commissioner.

The State University of New York and the City University of New York suspended study-abroad programs in countries including China, Italy, Japan and South Korea on Wednesday as fears mounted over the virus. Approximately 300 students, as well as staff, have been asked to return from those countries to be quarantined in “dormlike facilities on SUNY campuses” for 14 days, Cuomo said.

The governor described the coronavirus as the “flu on steroids” and urged caution.

“We have an epidemic caused by coronavirus, but we have a pandemic that is caused by fear,” he said. “The more you test, the more positive cases you will find.”

Mitchell Moss, 71, a New York University professor who lives downtown, said he recently bought 100 packets of Kleenex as a result of the virus and wipes down “every piece of equipment my hands touch” when he works out at the gym.

“New Yorkers have terrific resistance because we ride the subway every day and we’re always exposed to germs,” Moss said. “If I have to be quarantined, I’d rather be quarantined in Manhattan than anywhere else in the world.”

In Westchester, about 1,000 people have self-quarantined, officials said. The New Rochelle attorney — a 50 year-old man — remained at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital in Manhattan. Health officials said his condition prevented him from being interviewed to determine how he was exposed to the virus.

His wife is asymptomatic, officials said, and the couple’s two children are well enough to be quarantined with her at home.

The detectives also are monitoring seven employees and one intern at the man’s law firm, which is located near Grand Central Terminal. Five of those employees were “being tested as we speak, in the city,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said Wednesday. One was tested in New Jersey. The results of those tests were pending.

The lawyer’s 20-year-old son attends Yeshiva University, Cuomo said. The student’s roommate and close friend were awaiting test results at Bellevue Hospital. The university on Wednesday canceled all classes at its Wilf Campus in Washington Heights.

Matthew Chan, the manager of Chop Chop, a kosher Chinese restaurant near campus, said business was down by 50 percent. “The students are like my family. I pray for them,” Chan said.
The lawyer’s 14-year-old daughter is a student at the SAR Academy and High School, a Jewish day school in the Riverdale section of the Bronx. The academy closed Tuesday as a precautionary measure. The Westchester Day School and the Westchester Torah Academy also temporarily shut down as a precaution, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency reported.

Health officials ordered Young Israel of New Rochelle, the family’s synagogue, to suspend activities. The officials mandated a two-week quarantine for anyone who attended a funeral at the synagogue on Feb. 22 or a bat mitzvah on Feb. 23. About 600 people are affected, according to the JTA.

“It’s an old-world Jewish community, because everyone is so into everyone’s life,” said Rabbi Jeffrey Sirkman of the Larchmont Temple, a synagogue in a neighboring town. “There’s a real sense of mutual support and mutual care. There’s a real sense of connectedness that is an extension of their Judaism.”

Sirkman’s synagogue sent a letter this week urging its 800-family congregation to take precautions, including “rubbing elbows instead of shaking hands, etc. to minimize the transmission of germs.”

“If we hug or hold hands or kiss a little less,” the letter said, “it does not mean we don’t care. On the contrary, with sincerity of heart, it means we truly do!”

Gillian Steinberg, an English teacher at SAR, will be in quarantine through Friday, but she is still prepping for classes Thursday.

From her home in Riverdale, she and her son, a sophomore at the school, will put on headsets for classwork and sit in separate rooms. The school set up online classes through Zoom for most of the school day, allowing for a 45-minute lunch break.

“Everyone is doing the best they can. The high school’s been updating us regularly,” she said. “I don’t get an overall sense of panic. We’re going to get through this thing.”

She and her husband, who are recovering from the flu, said their doctor told them not to come in for a medical visit because Steinberg works at SAR. She said they were instead diagnosed with the flu in the emergency room by doctors in hazmat suits. Her husband has since been working remotely.
“I think he’s hoping to go back to work and be away from the chaos,” she said.

Michael Weissman, owner of Mikey Dubb’s Frozen Custard in New Rochelle, said members of Young Israel were some of his first customers when he opened in July 2018 and have been faithful ever since. The shop is down the street from the synagogue.

He provided catering for the synagogue’s carnival on Sunday for Purim, a festive holiday that begins Monday night. The job did not affect his employees, he said: “We’re always wearing gloves anyways. We’re just redoubling our efforts.”

Parents who have visited the shop with children this week seem anxious, Weissman said. For now, he’s still scheduled to cater a Purim event this weekend for a different synagogue.

“No one wants to panic,” Weissman said. “Everyone is taking it a day at a time right now.”

Schwartzman reported from Washington. Miriam Berger in Washington contributed to this report.

[Paul Waine]

A couple of comments on Washington Post report, above.

1) Having read the introductory paragraphs, I was expecting a much bigger number than 11, particularly after reading the "Armageddon" comment!

2) Schwartzman reported from Washington. Miriam Berger in Washington contributed to this report. I guess they are trying to say, "I didn't go to NY, I haven't got covid-19!"

[Lowbankclaret]

Source? (There won't be one because either you made it up or believed someone else who did).

The writers don't seem to think it's a tool for the current issue...
https://www.pcgamesinsider.biz/news/703 ... -outbreak/

To be fair the source is a friend who is a geek gamer.

I will ask tomorrow to see if there is any proof.


By the way, I said the contact process was not working, got attacked.

People now accept it not working.

We can only slow it to limit economic impact.

We will not do what China has done, as people will not accept it.