Covid-19

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thatdberight
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:56 am

Erasmus wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:36 am
But you can of course do all of that without giving any offence. I ask again, what's the point of being insulting and abusive? Who benefits from it?
If rationally, repeatedly pointing out facts and errors isn't working, I'm not going to apologise for trying a different tack. That may not be to your taste.

Claret-On-A-T-Rex
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:32 am

thatdberight wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:20 am
So not about this virus then. Thanks for the diversion.
Lying about spending money on the Health Service isn't about health?

I'm not the one who started saying this ridiculous government would be investigating misinformation.

Gordaleman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:33 am

Dark Cloud wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:47 am
I still believe it's extremely difficult to know exactly what's going on with this. Chinese reporting is dodgier than a Harry Redknapp alibi as they never want anyone to know the real truth about absolutely anything over there and this of course is no different. The Western press on the other hand simply loves a sensational headline and "click bait" so overplay stuff like this at every opportunity to get us hooked in and the government here don't want to be seen to be under reacting so think it best, if anything, to overreact as that makes them look better and more caring. Ultimately if 97% of people (or whatever?) who ever come into contact with this micro pest will feel like they've got a cold and then get over it fairly quickly, why are 100% of us panicking? If you're in the more vulnerable 3%? then you definitely need to think about what you do over the next few days and weeks to minimise your risk, I totally get that, but considering "keep calm and...." was a very British invention, it's becoming a joke. (IMO)
PS. My brother lives in China and has done for over 20 years and he says he feels far happier there right now than he would over here with all the "hype and frenzy"!!
I agree with most of your post but I can assure you that 100 % of us aren't panicking. Far from it. I'll be out tonight playing snooker with friends and having a few pints as usual, even though I'm very much in the 'At risk' group.

One more thing, the WHO seems to believe the Chinese figures.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AlargeClaret » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:35 am

I imagine plenty of seats up for grabs in the Bob Lord next season
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by THEWELLERNUT70 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:39 am

I was out in Poulton yesterday with a couple who had arrived back from Venice the night before.

I'm happy to report I'm still alive

thatdberight
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:40 am

Dark Cloud wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:47 am
Ultimately if 97% of people (or whatever?) who ever come into contact with this micro pest will feel like they've got a cold and then get over it fairly quickly, why are 100% of us panicking?
Some of the stats don't suggest that only 3% will feel materially unwell. Some suggest much fewer, some much more. With different governments releasing different stats collated in different ways with different definitions, it would probably take an expert a month to get a handle on it.

That said, we are obviously attempting to reduce the total numbers who are affected so real numbers, not %, are kept low which is what matters and there's nothing in this that suggests panic is either necessary or, more importantly, useful.
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Gordaleman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:46 am

It's really surprising that even in the most well intended articles, supposedly educated people make basic errors. Yesterday, I was reading a piece on the Coronavirus (Admittedly written from a financial point of view.) in Money Week magazine. The writer was right in most of what she said, but she did make the point that we have anti biotics for things like this. REALLY? I though everyone knew that viruses can't be killed with anti biotics? No wonder there is so much misinformation about.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:08 pm

Another dramatic fall in active Chinese cases today. Having been about 27,000 a few days ago, it's now down to 18,898.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I think that the most telling stat on the China list is that only 56.1 people in 1,000,000 have had the virus, and that in the worst hit country. China had a high of 80,000 cases and now has less than 20,000, so that figure could now be brought down to about 14 per million if you just count active cases. Worldwide, the total figure comes down to 14.4 per 1,000,000.

Hopefully. if sensible measures are taken by EVERYONE elsewhere, then figures will start to drop worldwide in a few weeks.

What the peak will be, who knows, but there's no point in worrying about things we have little if any control over.
Last edited by Gordaleman on Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:27 pm, edited 3 times in total.

FactualFrank
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by FactualFrank » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:11 pm

Instead of calling them face masks, we should call them coughy filters.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:38 pm

France v Ireland rugby game has been postponed due to corona virus fears.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:42 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:08 pm
Another dramatic fall in active Chinese cases today. Having been about 27,000 a few days ago, it's now down to 18,898.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I think that the most telling stat on the China list is that only 56.1 people in 1,000,000 have had the virus, and that in the worst hit country. China had a high of 80,000 cases and now has less than 20,000, so that figure could now be brought down to about 14 per million if you just count active cases. Worldwide, the total figure comes down to 14.4 per 1,000,000.

Hopefully. if sensible measures are taken by EVERYONE elsewhere, then figures will start to drop worldwide in a few weeks.

What the peak will be, who knows, but there's no point in worrying about things we have little if any control over.
So , and I am not trying to be funny or catch you out.

What exactly do you think these sensible measure are please?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:48 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:42 pm
So , and I am not trying to be funny or catch you out.

What exactly do you think these sensible measure are please?
Having seen the Italian version of lockdown (leaked in the press, large numbers of people moved out on Saturday night, seemingly roads not managed, not clear if there's punishment for breaking the lockdown, flights out of Milan yesterday with no testing or quarantine as some examples) it's hard to imagine it will be as effective as quickly as China's.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:49 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:42 pm
So , and I am not trying to be funny or catch you out.

What exactly do you think these sensible measure are please?
With respect, haven't you been watching TV or reading the news recently?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51711227

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BennyD » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:51 pm

It’s just another example of mass hysteria; it’s a sniffle, not the fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse. Get it, get over it, move on. Sure, some will die, but flu kills thousands every year and nobody really gives a dead-rats a55 about that.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:52 pm

FactualFrank wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:11 pm
Instead of calling them face masks, we should call them coughy filters.
That's very good Frank. I'll be telling that one in the club tonight.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:59 pm

BennyD wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:51 pm
It’s just another example of mass hysteria; it’s a sniffle, not the fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse. Get it, get over it, move on. Sure, some will die, but flu kills thousands every year and nobody really gives a dead-rats a55 about that.
Not quite a sniffle, but when only 14 people per million, have it, including in China, then I'm not exactly getting hysterical about it Benny. ;)

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:01 pm

BennyD wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:51 pm
It’s just another example of mass hysteria; it’s a sniffle, not the fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse. Get it, get over it, move on. Sure, some will die, but flu kills thousands every year and nobody really gives a dead-rats a55 about that.
I thought it was the first horseman, not the forth... maybe wrong...

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BennyD » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:05 pm

I wasn’t pointing a finger at individuals, I was pointing it at the global stupidity of people going way over board. Aussies fighting over toilet rolls FFS. I will be driving over to Europe and back 3 or 4 times this year and I won’t be doing anything different. If I get it, I get it and if it kills me, so be it. Life’s far too short to waste it worrying about this sort of cr4p.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:13 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:48 pm
Having seen the Italian version of lockdown (leaked in the press, large numbers of people moved out on Saturday night, seemingly roads not managed, not clear if there's punishment for breaking the lockdown, flights out of Milan yesterday with no testing or quarantine as some examples) it's hard to imagine it will be as effective as quickly as China's.
Yes I read about some of that.

I agree with you!

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:16 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:49 pm
With respect, haven't you been watching TV or reading the news recently?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51711227
If you honestly believe those actions are going to work, then we do disagree!

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by tim_noone » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:17 pm

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:39 am
I was out in Poulton yesterday with a couple who had arrived back from Venice the night before.

I'm happy to report I'm still alive
And the Couple? Any News on Them.......

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:19 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:16 pm
If you honestly believe those actions are going to work, then we do disagree!
No dispute there then.

If it be your will
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by If it be your will » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:22 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:34 am
Why are we 15 days behind them? What's your basis for that, statistically or on some other basis?
Interestingly, I've had a half-hearted attempt at projecting it. It's not particularly robust, but it looks like - in nearly all countries individually as well as collectively - the number of cases doubles about every 3.5 days, give or take. (The major exception is China, presumably due to aggressive quarantine measures.)

From that you can start to take guesses where it will be in 2, 3, 8 weeks etc if quarantine measures are not taken. Guesses that will likely prove wrong, but it has broadly followed this for the last 2 weeks. This will turn out to be wrong, obviously, but that would mean the number in the UK will be about 4 million by the end of April-ish, and would have peaked 3-4 weeks after that, assuming no mass 'lock-downs'.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by dsr » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:25 pm

tim_noone wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:17 pm
And the Couple? Any News on Them.......
They caught corona off Wellernut! :twisted:
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paulatky
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:26 pm

Breaking News " UK remains in containment stage but it is now accepted this virus is now going to spread in a significant way " Number 10 spokesperson a few minutes ago.

I said exactly the same 16 days ago !!!!

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:29 pm

If it be your will wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:22 pm
Interestingly, I've had a half-hearted attempt at projecting it. It's not particularly robust, but it looks like - in nearly all countries individually as well as collectively - the number of cases doubles about every 3.5 days, give or take. (The major exception is China, presumably due to aggressive quarantine measures.)

From that you can start to take guesses where it will be in 2, 3, 8 weeks etc if quarantine measures are not taken. Guesses that will likely prove wrong, but it has broadly followed this for the last 2 weeks. This will turn out to be wrong, obviously, but that would mean the number in the UK will be about 4 million by the end of April-ish, and would have peaked 3-4 weeks after that, assuming no mass 'lock-downs'.
After 3-4 weeks that 4 million is going to be a lot higher.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:40 pm

paulatky wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:26 pm
Breaking News " UK remains in containment stage but it is now accepted this virus is now going to spread in a significant way " Number 10 spokesperson a few minutes ago.

I said exactly the same 16 days ago !!!!
Very clever of you but do you think that you are the only one who thought it would spread? Of course it's going to spread, just not as badly as you have been predicting.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Spijed » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:48 pm

paulatky wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:29 pm
After 3-4 weeks that 4 million is going to be a lot higher.
You really are convinced we are in a doomsday scenario aren't you?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:53 pm

paulatky wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:31 am
Since I 1st posted on this thread 15 days ago unfortunately things are turning out as I thought they would.

Remember 15 days ago Italy had just declared their first case . Look at Italy now and remember the UK is just 15 days behind their curve
To be fair...

"Sergio Brusin from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control told the BBC's Victoria Derbyshire programme: "The UK is in the same situation Italy was two weeks ago.""

That's not the same as "therefore we will be in the same position in 15 days' time" but it's a serious scientist giving an important view on where we could be soon.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Spijed » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:06 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:53 pm
To be fair...

"Sergio Brusin from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control told the BBC's Victoria Derbyshire programme: "The UK is in the same situation Italy was two weeks ago.""

That's not the same as "therefore we will be in the same position in 15 days' time" but it's a serious scientist giving an important view on where we could be soon.
Why isnt Germany being compared to Italy?

Far more cases than us yet no fatalities as yet.
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thatdberight
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:18 pm

Spijed wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:06 pm
Why isnt Germany being compared to Italy?

Far more cases than us yet no fatalities as yet.
I'm sure Germany is being compared to Italy by someone. I'm sure the clear differences in the stats are the subject of much review.

That won't stop some posters on here jumping on any data that makes it look apocalyptic and some others sifting for nuggets that make it look trivial.
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paulatky
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:20 pm

thatdberight wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:53 pm
To be fair...

"Sergio Brusin from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control told the BBC's Victoria Derbyshire programme: "The UK is in the same situation Italy was two weeks ago.""

That's not the same as "therefore we will be in the same position in 15 days' time" but it's a serious scientist giving an important view on where we could be soon.
Isnt that almost word for word what I posted last night !!!!

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:22 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:40 pm
Very clever of you but do you think that you are the only one who thought it would spread? Of course it's going to spread, just not as badly as you have been predicting.
The key phrase from number 10 is "in a significant way"

Depends if that significant has the same meaning as my significant

Grumps
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Grumps » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:31 pm

I'll ask for third time, why is paulatky comparing us with Italy?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:44 pm

paulatky wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:20 pm
Isnt that almost word for word what I posted last night !!!!
goldstar.gif
goldstar.gif (446.23 KiB) Viewed 430 times

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:45 pm

Breaking news - Trading on US Stock Exchange suspended

This is getting very serious guys . Wake up and smell the coffee whilst you still
Last edited by paulatky on Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Zlatan
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Zlatan » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:45 pm

Grumps wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:31 pm
I'll ask for third time, why is paulatky comparing us with Italy?
because Italy has deaths and has implemented draconian measures that justify his position in the argument.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:46 pm

Largely stayed off this thread but did wonder last week whether the thread going into meltdown and arguments (even relative to the Brexit debate) would be a premonition of wider meltdowns in places like the stock market.

It seems that today I have my answer. Panic is setting in (we can pretend its the oil arguments between Russia and Saudi but thats not the reason).

The housing market will follow, not immediately, but it will. Time to batten down the hatches in more ways than one.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:46 pm

Grumps wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:31 pm
I'll ask for third time, why is paulatky comparing us with Italy?
I am not the only one , she above.

Hope for the best , but plan for the worst !!!

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gerry Hattrick » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:48 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:01 pm
I thought it was the first horseman, not the forth... maybe wrong...
Perhaps the other two only suffered a little hoarseness but it was enough to bridge the gap.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:50 pm

paulatky wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:45 pm
Breaking News - Trading on US stock exchange has been suspended 20 minutes ago .

This is getting very serious guys . Wake up and smell the coffee whilst you still can
If that's true it won't last long and in fact this site says it's still trading. https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones

Anyway, markets have nothing to do with the virus itself. All they work on is fear and uncertainty and there is plenty of both at the moment.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Grumps » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:51 pm

paulatky wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:46 pm
I am not the only one , she above.

Hope for the best , but plan for the worst !!!
You've quoted Italy many times in comparison to us,and how we will follow their results. Now having been shown that it's an unfair comparison you go all quiet.
Just shows its easy to search Google, but then you have to understand what you're quoting off it, something you are really struggling with.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by dsr » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:51 pm

paulatky wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:45 pm
Breaking News - Trading on US stock exchange has been suspended 20 minutes ago .

This is getting very serious guys . Wake up and smell the coffee whilst you still can
Even more breaking news - after the automatic suspension that is triggered when there are unusual falls, trading resumed.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:55 pm

Grumps wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:51 pm
You've quoted Italy many times in comparison to us,and how we will follow their results. Now having been shown that it's an unfair comparison you go all quiet.
Just shows its easy to search Google, but then you have to understand what you're quoting off it, something you are really struggling with.
???????

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Grumps » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:55 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:45 pm
because Italy has deaths and has implemented draconian measures that justify his position in the argument.
Two completely different cultures in many ways, which don't justify comparison. Better would be Germany, Sweden, Norway etc but without looking I would guess figures in those countries don't help his scaremongering
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by paulatky » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:01 pm

dsr wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:51 pm
Even more breaking news - after the automatic suspension that is triggered when there are unusual falls, trading resumed.
Suspension triggered at 7% down . lasts for 15 mins now 6.4% down

Did that happen after 7/11 or financial crisis 11 years ago .

FTSE down 7.4%

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:16 pm

Grumps wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:51 pm
You've quoted Italy many times in comparison to us,and how we will follow their results. Now having been shown that it's an unfair comparison you go all quiet.
Just shows its easy to search Google, but then you have to understand what you're quoting off it, something you are really struggling with.
Not only is it easy to search google it's the starting point for everything posted on this thread by you and everybody else.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:17 pm

Grumps wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:55 pm
Two completely different cultures in many ways, which don't justify comparison. Better would be Germany, Sweden, Norway etc but without looking I would guess figures in those countries don't help his scaremongering
So dig 'em out no? Or is google broke?

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:19 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:40 pm
Very clever of you but do you think that you are the only one who thought it would spread? Of course it's going to spread, just not as badly as you have been predicting.
Want to back that up with one of your "facts" then?

Gordaleman
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:28 pm

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:19 pm
Want to back that up with one of your "facts" then?
Fact. Case numbers are falling and you only have to look at today's stats to see it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Just scroll down.

And look at the last figure on each line and the totals at the bottom. Only 14 people in every million worldwide infected at any stage. That's a REALLY scary number, isn't it?

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