Covid-19

This Forum is the main messageboard to discuss all things Claret and Blue and beyond
Jakubclaret
Posts: 3027
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 353 times
Has Liked: 272 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:17 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:11 pm
Let's get one point clear. Antibiotics don't work on ANY virus,
I’m aware of that, I wasn’t comparing the effects regardless of viruses or infections, I could compare paracetamol & temezepans, to gain a sedative effect I’d be going for the tranquilliser (benzodiazepines).

Quickenthetempo
Posts: 9782
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:35 am
Been Liked: 2176 times
Has Liked: 1236 times

Re: Spain on Lockdown now

Post by Quickenthetempo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:23 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:02 pm
:)

Iam currently sat in a bar, all the others are open as well, it's quiet but all open
Enjoy

thatdberight
Posts: 3779
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:49 am
Been Liked: 924 times
Has Liked: 716 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by thatdberight » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:23 pm

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus.
COVID-19 is the disease.
This user liked this post: IanMcL

mdd2
Posts: 4240
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm
Been Liked: 1243 times
Has Liked: 557 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by mdd2 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:25 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:09 pm
Antibiotics resistance is a major problem there don’t even administer routinely for certain types of infections now due to the bacteria changing, it ties in with the herd immunity idea in the opposite direction but in a positive way, maybe not the best analogy, 1s certainly bad the other potentially good. It’s the defence mechanism (immunity adapting).
See where you are coming from now. Slightly different as we don't mutate to become resistant to the virus but bacteria mutate and therefore like Darwin's survival of the fittest-the sensitive bugs die off and the mutated resistant strains triumph over the dying sensitive ones. In your anology you are comparing us as the antibiotics. We become resistant to Covid-19 which dies out and mutant strains of Covid-19 come through to infect us again, which is what flu does.

IanMcL
Posts: 17589
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:27 pm
Been Liked: 3532 times
Has Liked: 4066 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by IanMcL » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 pm

On a more serious note, I am not a medic or anything, however, I am into Aromatherapy , although not trained, just well read.

I would recommend us all doing inhalations regularly.

Bit like if you have cold etc.
Boil a kettle to produce steam. Pour into bowl and place towel over it. Let it go off the boil for about a minute, then 2 drops of these essential oils:
Peppermint, Eucalyptus, Lemon and Tea Tree.

Stay under for about 10 mins.

How to breathe....
Deep breath in, counting to 5 to fill the lungs.
Hold for 5
Breathe out slowly for 7 to empty lungs
Hold for 5
Repeat sequence for the 10 mins.

If you can't buy all 4 (Holland & Barratt might have a buy I get one for a penny sale, if you are lucky!) then the most important but not best smelling, is TEA TREE.

TEA TREE PURE ESSENTIAL OIL CAN ZAP A VIRUS, on occasion.

Good health to all.

bfcjg
Posts: 6020
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:17 pm
Been Liked: 2253 times
Has Liked: 2208 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by bfcjg » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:32 pm

Never mind the Chinese markets I blame this p1llock.
https://images.app.goo.gl/F1jgaEL8DrrQ2rc28

Gordaleman
Posts: 1124
Joined: Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:04 pm
Been Liked: 209 times
Has Liked: 223 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:33 pm

IanMcL wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 pm
On a more serious note,

TEA TREE PURE ESSENTIAL OIL CAN ZAP A VIRUS, on occasion.

Good health to all.
You started off very well and I've no doubt doing what you say is quite pleasant but really, if Tea Tree oil was so effective, I think everyone would be doing it by now.

Strangely, I have a small bottle of Peppermint Oil in front of me right now. I use it as an appetite suppressor. (It doesn't seem to work ;) )

tim_noone
Posts: 14144
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:12 pm
Been Liked: 3631 times
Has Liked: 12450 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by tim_noone » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:37 pm

IanMcL wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 pm
On a more serious note, I am not a medic or anything, however, I am into Aromatherapy , although not trained, just well read.

I would recommend us all doing inhalations regularly.

Bit like if you have cold etc.
Boil a kettle to produce steam. Pour into bowl and place towel over it. Let it go off the boil for about a minute, then 2 drops of these essential oils:
Peppermint, Eucalyptus, Lemon and Tea Tree.

Stay under for about 10 mins.

How to breathe....
Deep breath in, counting to 5 to fill the lungs.
Hold for 5
Breathe out slowly for 7 to empty lungs
Hold for 5
Repeat sequence for the 10 mins.

If you can't buy all 4 (Holland & Barratt might have a buy I get one for a penny sale, if you are lucky!) then the most important but not best smelling, is TEA TREE.

TEA TREE PURE ESSENTIAL OIL CAN ZAP A VIRUS, on occasion.

Good health to all.
Sounds like Hot air... I'm sure someone will be along shortly.

IanMcL
Posts: 17589
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:27 pm
Been Liked: 3532 times
Has Liked: 4066 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by IanMcL » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:39 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:33 pm
You started off very well and I've no doubt doing what you say is quite pleasant but really, if Tea Tree oil was so effective, I think everyone would be doing it by now.
We all know that sometimes, the medics want drugs and vaccines and yet there are other natural things.

I am not saying it is a cure, I am saying it is a very good anti-viral oil. For example, at a certain temperature, it zaps a particular meningitis virus. Not widely known!

If you have a burn and dab it immediately with Lavender oil, the pain will be gone in a flash. Repeat when you feel it again until it is no more. You won't have a burn mark either.

tim_noone
Posts: 14144
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:12 pm
Been Liked: 3631 times
Has Liked: 12450 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by tim_noone » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:42 pm

Told you so...

Inchy
Posts: 1857
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2016 5:32 pm
Been Liked: 823 times
Has Liked: 77 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Inchy » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:42 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:11 pm
Let's get one point clear. Antibiotics don't work on ANY virus,


This is true but those who are infective with a serious viral infection are often started on antibiotics as a secondary bacteraemia is common

IanMcL
Posts: 17589
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:27 pm
Been Liked: 3532 times
Has Liked: 4066 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by IanMcL » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:45 pm

My wife used to have migraines. Nothing worked until one day, to soothe her brow, I mixed a warm compress, containing Geranium, as one of the ingredients. She was really suffering.
As I entered the bedroom, she said, "That smells nice". I placed the warm compress on her forehead and immediately, she said...."what did you do? It's just gone!"
She was as surprised as I was!

Gordaleman
Posts: 1124
Joined: Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:04 pm
Been Liked: 209 times
Has Liked: 223 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:46 pm

Inchy wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:42 pm
This is true but those who are infective with a serious viral infection are often started on antibiotics as a secondary bacteraemia is common
You could be right but it's not something I'm aware of. They still won't kill the virus.

IanMcL
Posts: 17589
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:27 pm
Been Liked: 3532 times
Has Liked: 4066 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by IanMcL » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:48 pm

tim_noone wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:42 pm
Told you so...
That's ok Tim. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. You are no worse off than you were before you read it. One day...you may just remember and be desperate to try anything. Good health.
This user liked this post: cricketfieldclarets

tim_noone
Posts: 14144
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:12 pm
Been Liked: 3631 times
Has Liked: 12450 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by tim_noone » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:51 pm

IanMcL wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:48 pm
That's ok Tim. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. You are no worse off than you were before you read it. One day...you may just remember and be desperate to try anything. Good health.
I'm in the agree camp....others know better though :D

cricketfieldclarets
Posts: 18352
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Been Liked: 7060 times
Has Liked: 9894 times

Re: Spain on Lockdown now

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:51 pm

Damo wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:05 pm
I'm just on the way back to the airport from benidorm.
This will bankrupt this place
Not before time. **** hole. :D
This user liked this post: Zlatan

Billy Balfour
Posts: 1477
Joined: Mon May 28, 2018 3:00 pm
Been Liked: 611 times
Has Liked: 227 times

Re: Spain on Lockdown now

Post by Billy Balfour » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:10 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:51 pm
Not before time. **** hole. :D
A Swedish friend of ours thought Benidorm was where the British govt sent the homeless for a holiday. I said we're not that cruel.

nil_desperandum
Posts: 5771
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm
Been Liked: 1404 times
Has Liked: 2646 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by nil_desperandum » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:22 pm

Just discovered this official statistic. Must say it's way lower than I had imagined.
I'm going to check the site every day now to see how it grows
"There are 6 (confirmed) cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Just type in your postcode if interested.

tiger76
Posts: 7079
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:43 pm
Been Liked: 1106 times
Has Liked: 2855 times
Location: Glasgow

Re: Coronavirus

Post by tiger76 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:23 pm

Zlatan wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:15 pm
So I have just been into Tesco, honestly it was shocking - they had no toilet paper at all. Reluctantly I headed for the customer service and asked if they had any. A firm NO and a look in disgust was the answer.

Walking back to the toilets with my pants and trousers around my ankles was a walk I never want to do again.
That made me chuckle,need some light relief with all this news coverage. :lol:
This user liked this post: Zlatan

Inchy
Posts: 1857
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2016 5:32 pm
Been Liked: 823 times
Has Liked: 77 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Inchy » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:28 pm

It’s going to be a strange few months
Last edited by Inchy on Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:35 am, edited 5 times in total.

Gordaleman
Posts: 1124
Joined: Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:04 pm
Been Liked: 209 times
Has Liked: 223 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:29 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:22 pm
Just discovered this official statistic. Must say it's way lower than I had imagined.
I'm going to check the site every day now to see how it grows
"There are 6 (confirmed) cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Just type in your postcode if interested.
If some on here are right, it will be 2,000,000 out of 1,210,053 in the next few days.

Jakubclaret
Posts: 3027
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 353 times
Has Liked: 272 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:38 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:22 pm
Just discovered this official statistic. Must say it's way lower than I had imagined.
I'm going to check the site every day now to see how it grows
"There are 6 (confirmed) cases in Lancashire, out of a local population of 1,210,053"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Just type in your postcode if interested.
7 now.
https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... t-17862542

Gordaleman
Posts: 1124
Joined: Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:04 pm
Been Liked: 209 times
Has Liked: 223 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:44 pm

Still 6 on the BBC site. Not saying it's right.

cricketfieldclarets
Posts: 18352
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Been Liked: 7060 times
Has Liked: 9894 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:45 pm

IanMcL wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:28 pm
On a more serious note, I am not a medic or anything, however, I am into Aromatherapy , although not trained, just well read.

I would recommend us all doing inhalations regularly.

Bit like if you have cold etc.
Boil a kettle to produce steam. Pour into bowl and place towel over it. Let it go off the boil for about a minute, then 2 drops of these essential oils:
Peppermint, Eucalyptus, Lemon and Tea Tree.

Stay under for about 10 mins.

How to breathe....
Deep breath in, counting to 5 to fill the lungs.
Hold for 5
Breathe out slowly for 7 to empty lungs
Hold for 5
Repeat sequence for the 10 mins.

If you can't buy all 4 (Holland & Barratt might have a buy I get one for a penny sale, if you are lucky!) then the most important but not best smelling, is TEA TREE.

TEA TREE PURE ESSENTIAL OIL CAN ZAP A VIRUS, on occasion.

Good health to all.
In all seriousness had a dry throat all week. (No cough, fever or any other issues) - hot bath has eased it dramatically every day.

IanMcL
Posts: 17589
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:27 pm
Been Liked: 3532 times
Has Liked: 4066 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by IanMcL » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:48 pm

Beer works too

Jakubclaret
Posts: 3027
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 353 times
Has Liked: 272 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:50 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:44 pm
Still 6 on the BBC site. Not saying it's right.
Link says 7, maybe link incorrect or BBC not updated, 4hrs ago this was confirmed according to the link, brings the whole total to 7 confirmed cases I’ve not double checked it.

Gordaleman
Posts: 1124
Joined: Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:04 pm
Been Liked: 209 times
Has Liked: 223 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:52 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:50 pm
Link says 7, maybe link incorrect or BBC not updated, 4hrs ago this was confirmed according to the link, brings the whole total to 7 confirmed cases I’ve not double checked it.
Your link includes Blackpool's unitary authority, the BBCs doesn't. It doesn't really matter,

Jakubclaret
Posts: 3027
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 353 times
Has Liked: 272 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:55 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:52 pm
Your link includes Blackpool's unitary authority, the BBCs doesn't. It doesn't really matter,
Lancashire is Lancashire, that’s where the fylde sits.

Gordaleman
Posts: 1124
Joined: Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:04 pm
Been Liked: 209 times
Has Liked: 223 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Gordaleman » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:56 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:55 pm
Lancashire is Lancashire, that’s where the fylde sits.
No argument from me. Tell the BBC.

Jakubclaret
Posts: 3027
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 353 times
Has Liked: 272 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:00 pm

Gordaleman wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:56 pm
No argument from me. Tell the BBC.
True, with research you cast the net out far & wide.

nil_desperandum
Posts: 5771
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:06 pm
Been Liked: 1404 times
Has Liked: 2646 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by nil_desperandum » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:31 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:55 pm
Lancashire is Lancashire, that’s where the fylde sits.
No problem with you saying that, but just to add (according to the BBC stats):
There are 6 in "Lancashire", 2 on the Fylde and 0 In Blackburn and Darwen, (so 8 in total) but of course that takes the total population up to over 1.5 million if you aggregate all 3 authorities.

bfcmik
Posts: 2210
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:03 pm
Been Liked: 585 times
Has Liked: 635 times
Location: Solihull Geriatric Centre

Re: Coronavirus

Post by bfcmik » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:36 pm

"Not to put too fine a point on it, from an entirely disinterested economic perspective, the COVID-19 might even prove beneficial in the long term by disproportionately culling elderly dependents."
(Jeremy Warner, Daily Telegraph, March 3rd)

Speechless!

Jakubclaret
Posts: 3027
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2016 10:47 pm
Been Liked: 353 times
Has Liked: 272 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:39 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:31 pm
No problem with you saying that, but just to add (according to the BBC stats):
There are 6 in "Lancashire", 2 on the Fylde and 0 In Blackburn and Darwen, (so 8 in total) but of course that takes the total population up to over 1.5 million if you aggregate all 3 authorities.
The numbers are climbing in the early stages, it’s worrying & we’ve still got people not yet diagnosed & people who are likely to catch it. It doesn’t look good in my view, 1.5 million is huge when looking at 8 I think though when/if it eventually finishes it will take a substantial nibble, bite wouldn’t be the right word to use.

Wile E Coyote
Posts: 6594
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:22 pm
Been Liked: 2091 times
Has Liked: 1248 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Wile E Coyote » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:01 pm

i was listening to radio this evening, two doctors on phone in, a caller rang to ask if he should worry because his daughter was ill. the studio doc asked about her symptoms and said if she's not coughing, and her temp isnt too high, no worries. but her colleague said lots of people have no symptoms whatsoever. therefore its potentially dangerous because they wont be the ones who isolate themselves. they could pass the virus unknowingly to all and sundry. he said people with heart or respitory issues could become very ill. he also suggested our governments tactic is poor, and this idea of herd immunity was not suitable at all. if its allowed to run its course through the populace , theoretically over a million fatalities possible.

cricketfieldclarets
Posts: 18352
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Been Liked: 7060 times
Has Liked: 9894 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:02 pm

An expert has spoken. Personally I doubt I’d take anything this expert says seriously. :ugeek: :ugeek: :ugeek: :ugeek:
Attachments
90FCF195-76C5-436C-8956-6A1E0799D9B6.jpeg
90FCF195-76C5-436C-8956-6A1E0799D9B6.jpeg (1.6 MiB) Viewed 650 times

IanMcL
Posts: 17589
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:27 pm
Been Liked: 3532 times
Has Liked: 4066 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by IanMcL » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:05 pm

Wile E Coyote wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:01 pm
i was listening to radio this evening, two doctors on phone in, a caller rang to ask if he should worry because his daughter was ill. the studio doc asked about her symptoms and said if she's not coughing, and her temp isnt too high, no worries. but her colleague said lots of people have no symptoms whatsoever. therefore its potentially dangerous because they wont be the ones who isolate themselves. they could pass the virus unknowingly to all and sundry. he said people with heart or respitory issues could become very ill. he also suggested our governments tactic is poor, and this idea of herd immunity was not suitable at all. if its allowed to run its course through the populace , theoretically over a million fatalities possible.
Blimey...I've got no symptoms!
I am dangerous!

dsr
Posts: 10307
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 3015 times
Has Liked: 1294 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by dsr » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:19 pm

Bosscat wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:54 pm
This was in this mornings Daily Express Frederick Forsyth Column...

20200313_185146.jpg
Someone has been reading Stephen King's book, "The Stand". (The first half is well worth a read. The second half isn't.) This particular plot device is in the early part of the book.

dsr
Posts: 10307
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 3015 times
Has Liked: 1294 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by dsr » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:24 pm

Wile E Coyote wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:01 pm
i was listening to radio this evening, two doctors on phone in, a caller rang to ask if he should worry because his daughter was ill. the studio doc asked about her symptoms and said if she's not coughing, and her temp isnt too high, no worries. but her colleague said lots of people have no symptoms whatsoever. therefore its potentially dangerous because they wont be the ones who isolate themselves. they could pass the virus unknowingly to all and sundry. he said people with heart or respitory issues could become very ill. he also suggested our governments tactic is poor, and this idea of herd immunity was not suitable at all. if its allowed to run its course through the populace , theoretically over a million fatalities possible.
And how many fatalities are possible if we follow the approach of hiding until it goes away?

The problem with critiques of the UK approach is that they are comparing it with nothing.

We cannot have a full lockdown. Full lockdown means no-one is allowed out - no police, no food manufacturers or sellers, no farmers, no gas and electricity generators, no TV broadcasters. and of course mo medical people. If we do that, many more people die. But if we don't do that, and allow all the people listed to do their daily work, then when the rest of us come out of our hiding places, the virus is still with us and we have spent 6 weeks "inside" to gain 6 weeks' grace. Theoretically. But it's as likely a theory as the other.

dsr
Posts: 10307
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 3015 times
Has Liked: 1294 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by dsr » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:35 pm

Here's a number for comparison purposes. In the UK each year, approx 90,000 die with either pneumonia or flu on their death certificates; about a third of them as sole or principal cause, two thirds as contributory causes. That is 250 per day, and more than 90% of these are over 65.

So since the first UK death on 5th March, even ignoring the skew biased towards winter flu, 2,250 people have died because of, or helped on their way by, flu and pneumonia. This year so far, the number will be 20,000 or so.

boatshed bill
Posts: 5507
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:47 am
Been Liked: 1177 times
Has Liked: 2597 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by boatshed bill » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:50 pm

I've had some of the symptoms since last Sunday. I doubt I've got it, but I'm keeping as far away from the public as possible just in case.
not joking.
This user liked this post: HunterST_BFC

Damo
Posts: 3760
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:04 pm
Been Liked: 1465 times
Has Liked: 2245 times

Re: Spain on Lockdown now

Post by Damo » Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:49 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:51 pm
Not before time. **** hole. :D
Dont you live in Nelson? :lol:

Spiral
Posts: 2328
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:37 am
Been Liked: 985 times
Has Liked: 192 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Spiral » Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:07 am

Some brilliant insight from Prof. Ian Donald on twitter. His bio: Psychologist. Social, Environmental, architectural psychology, and behavioural factors in Anti-Microbial Resistance. University of Liverpool.

https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/sta ... 1651649538

(formatting by some helpful person on reddit).

__________

The govt strategy on #Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to.
This all assumes I'm correct in what I think the govt are doing and why. I could be wrong - and wouldn't be surprised. But it looks to me like. . .
A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it.
There are limited health resources so the aim is to manage the flow of the seriously ill to these.
The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UKs wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection
That's herd immunity. Based on this idea, at the moment the govt wants people to get infected, up until hospitals begin to reach capacity. At that they want to reduce, but not stop infection rate. Ideally they balance it so the numbers entering hospital = the number leaving.
That balance is the big risk.
All the time people are being treated, other mildly ill people are recovering and the population grows a higher percent of immune people who can’t infect. They can also return to work and keep things going normally - and go to the pubs.
The risk is being able to accurately manage infection flow relative to health case resources. Data on infection rates needs to be accurate, the measures they introduce need to work and at the time they want them to and to the degree they want, or the system is overwhelmed.
Schools: Kids generally won’t get very ill, so the govt can use them as a tool to infect others when you want to increase infection. When you need to slow infection, that tap can be turned off – at that point they close the schools. Politically risky for them to say this.
The same for large scale events - stop them when you want to slow infection rates; turn another tap off. This means schools etc are closed for a shorter period and disruption generally is therefore for a shorter period, AND with a growing immune population. This is sustainable
After a while most of the population is immune, the seriously ill have all received treatment and the country is resistant. The more vulnerable are then less at risk. This is the end state the govt is aiming for and could achieve.
BUT a key issue during this process is protection of those for whom the virus is fatal. It's not clear the full measures there are to protect those people. It assumes they can measure infection, that their behavioural expectations are met - people do what they think they will
The Italian (and others) strategy is to stop as much infection as possible - or all infection. This is appealing, but then what? The restrictions are not sustainable for months. So the will need to be relaxed. But that will lead to reemergence of infections.
Then rates will then start to climb again. So they will have to reintroduce the restrictions each time infection rates rise. That is not a sustainable model and takes much longer to achieve the goal of a largely immune population with low risk of infection of the vulnerable
As the government tries to achieve equilibrium between hospitalisations and infections, more interventions will appear. It's perhaps why there are at the moment few public information films on staying at home. They are treading a tight path, but possibly a sensible one.
This is probably the best strategy, but they should explain it more clearly. It relies on a lot of assumptions, so it would be good to know what they are - especially behavioural. Most encouraging, it's way too clever for #BorisJohnson to have had any role in developing.


__________

This is admittedly better information than the govt is communicating, but this kind of commentary is a privilege afforded to analysts and professionals outside of govt who don't need to be as delicate in their messaging, and have fewer governance and strategic considerations (note I'm not saying 'political', because I genuinely believe our strategy is coherent, but its design politically difficult). Certain messages which might otherwise help the public better understand the strategy might counteractively make the public lose trust in it and thus make it collapse - for example the idea of building immunity through children, in whom the symptoms are incredibly mild. A parent might be outraged at this, and given maternal/paternal instinct, probably not without justification, for that is a real human instinct. It might also instinctively seem risky and put the vulnerable and elderly at more immediate risk, and again, selling this directly to folks is impossible, but this looks to be the strategy that best protects the greatest number of vulnerable and elderly.

Starting a press conference in front of a country of 65m people by telling them that lots of people are going to die was a rare, sensational outburst of honesty from Johnson. The strategy is risky and makes a lot of assumptions about managing the number of hospital cases, but if we're sensible and follow through incrementally, it seems like a better option than the more immediate lockdown efforts around the world. The vaccine won't be available until next year, and a rebound in the autumn/winter of this year will just start the process all over, killing ever more people, so it's got to be herd immunity.
These 2 users liked this post: claretandy nil_desperandum

HunterST_BFC
Posts: 2058
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 10:13 pm
Been Liked: 869 times
Has Liked: 1732 times
Location: varied

Re: Coronavirus

Post by HunterST_BFC » Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:10 am

If anyone actually wants to read this...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20030502v1

Complacency will cost even k### some.

As posted on another thread I said...
"Can't understand some peoples thinking ^^^

It's not about you and how ill you don't feel.

It's about the medical professional sitting three rows in front of you on the bus who works with cancer patients.

It's about the chap next to you in Costa grabbing a drink before going to see his 84 yo mum.

IT'S NOT ABOUT YOU!

FFS
"

claretandy
Posts: 2421
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 491 times
Has Liked: 185 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by claretandy » Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:17 am

Spiral wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:07 am
Some brilliant insight from Prof. Ian Donald on twitter. His bio: Psychologist. Social, Environmental, architectural psychology, and behavioural factors in Anti-Microbial Resistance. University of Liverpool.

https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/sta ... 1651649538

(formatting by some helpful person on reddit).

__________

The govt strategy on #Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to.
This all assumes I'm correct in what I think the govt are doing and why. I could be wrong - and wouldn't be surprised. But it looks to me like. . .
A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it.
There are limited health resources so the aim is to manage the flow of the seriously ill to these.
The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UKs wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection
That's herd immunity. Based on this idea, at the moment the govt wants people to get infected, up until hospitals begin to reach capacity. At that they want to reduce, but not stop infection rate. Ideally they balance it so the numbers entering hospital = the number leaving.
That balance is the big risk.
All the time people are being treated, other mildly ill people are recovering and the population grows a higher percent of immune people who can’t infect. They can also return to work and keep things going normally - and go to the pubs.
The risk is being able to accurately manage infection flow relative to health case resources. Data on infection rates needs to be accurate, the measures they introduce need to work and at the time they want them to and to the degree they want, or the system is overwhelmed.
Schools: Kids generally won’t get very ill, so the govt can use them as a tool to infect others when you want to increase infection. When you need to slow infection, that tap can be turned off – at that point they close the schools. Politically risky for them to say this.
The same for large scale events - stop them when you want to slow infection rates; turn another tap off. This means schools etc are closed for a shorter period and disruption generally is therefore for a shorter period, AND with a growing immune population. This is sustainable
After a while most of the population is immune, the seriously ill have all received treatment and the country is resistant. The more vulnerable are then less at risk. This is the end state the govt is aiming for and could achieve.
BUT a key issue during this process is protection of those for whom the virus is fatal. It's not clear the full measures there are to protect those people. It assumes they can measure infection, that their behavioural expectations are met - people do what they think they will
The Italian (and others) strategy is to stop as much infection as possible - or all infection. This is appealing, but then what? The restrictions are not sustainable for months. So the will need to be relaxed. But that will lead to reemergence of infections.
Then rates will then start to climb again. So they will have to reintroduce the restrictions each time infection rates rise. That is not a sustainable model and takes much longer to achieve the goal of a largely immune population with low risk of infection of the vulnerable
As the government tries to achieve equilibrium between hospitalisations and infections, more interventions will appear. It's perhaps why there are at the moment few public information films on staying at home. They are treading a tight path, but possibly a sensible one.
This is probably the best strategy, but they should explain it more clearly. It relies on a lot of assumptions, so it would be good to know what they are - especially behavioural. Most encouraging, it's way too clever for #BorisJohnson to have had any role in developing.


__________

This is admittedly better information than the govt is communicating, but this kind of commentary is a privilege afforded to analysts and professionals outside of govt who don't need to be as delicate in their messaging, and have fewer governance and strategic considerations (note I'm not saying 'political', because I genuinely believe our strategy is coherent, but its design politically difficult). Certain messages which might otherwise help the public better understand the strategy might counteractively make the public lose trust in it and thus make it collapse - for example the idea of building immunity through children, in whom the symptoms are incredibly mild. A parent might be outraged at this, and given maternal/paternal instinct, probably not without justification, for that is a real human instinct. It might also instinctively seem risky and put the vulnerable and elderly at more immediate risk, and again, selling this directly to folks is impossible, but this looks to be the strategy that best protects the greatest number of vulnerable and elderly.

Starting a press conference in front of a country of 65m people by telling them that lots of people are going to die was a rare, sensational outburst of honesty from Johnson. The strategy is risky and makes a lot of assumptions about managing the number of hospital cases, but if we're sensible and follow through incrementally, it seems like a better option than the more immediate lockdown efforts around the world. The vaccine won't be available until next year, and a rebound in the autumn/winter of this year will just start the process all over, killing ever more people, so it's got to be herd immunity.

Excellent post.

NottsClaret
Posts: 2146
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:05 am
Been Liked: 1770 times
Has Liked: 1 time

Re: Coronavirus

Post by NottsClaret » Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:36 am

Certainly an interesting idea and you can see the logic. But trying to maintain the public’s faith in that approach as the body count rises will be nigh on impossible.

People generally want to hide themselves and their family’s away until it’s over, but as above, doing that means it won’t be over for an unfeasible length of time.

It’s a tricky one to sell.

Spijed
Posts: 11296
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:33 pm
Been Liked: 1987 times
Has Liked: 873 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Spijed » Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:57 am

As the Prem and EFL has been suspended, along with the postponement of the London marathon how will the government factor that into their plans I wonder?

They are events that allow many people to get infected in a short space of time

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 3604
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 619 times
Has Liked: 39 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:10 am

NottsClaret wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:36 am
Certainly an interesting idea and you can see the logic. But trying to maintain the public’s faith in that approach as the body count rises will be nigh on impossible.

People generally want to hide themselves and their family’s away until it’s over, but as above, doing that means it won’t be over for an unfeasible length of time.

It’s a tricky one to sell.
The large post above explains better what some of us were debating yesterday.
I think many posters understood the strategy.
My point about it was about the model they are using and controlling the number of critically ill people.
If we overload the NHS the Morgues and the crematoriums, night one will forgive Boris or his band of experts.

Lowbankclaret
Posts: 3604
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 4:42 pm
Been Liked: 619 times
Has Liked: 39 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:12 am

dsr wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:35 pm
Here's a number for comparison purposes. In the UK each year, approx 90,000 die with either pneumonia or flu on their death certificates; about a third of them as sole or principal cause, two thirds as contributory causes. That is 250 per day, and more than 90% of these are over 65.

So since the first UK death on 5th March, even ignoring the skew biased towards winter flu, 2,250 people have died because of, or helped on their way by, flu and pneumonia. This year so far, the number will be 20,000 or so.
I have watched several programmes and debates and the numbers they all talked about were around 6000 in a normal year and 12000 in serious years.
I not sure your numbers are correct, I humbly suggest.

NottsClaret
Posts: 2146
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:05 am
Been Liked: 1770 times
Has Liked: 1 time

Re: Coronavirus

Post by NottsClaret » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:14 am

Spijed wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:57 am
As the Prem and EFL has been suspended, along with the postponement of the London marathon how will the government factor that into their plans I wonder?

They are events that allow many people to get infected in a short space of time
That’s why it’s doomed. It sounds good, unless you think you’re going to be one of those inoculating the herd..

Spijed
Posts: 11296
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:33 pm
Been Liked: 1987 times
Has Liked: 873 times

Re: Coronavirus

Post by Spijed » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:28 am

NottsClaret wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:14 am
That’s why it’s doomed. It sounds good, unless you think you’re going to be one of those inoculating the herd..
As we are likely to see voluntary lockdowns from many who won't venture outside much it might help at least ease the burden on the NHS as people get Ill over a longer period.

In Italy it's been far more dramatic
This user liked this post: Zlatan

Post Reply