Covid-19

[Dark Cloud]

In the same way that flu is rarely the sole cause of death in healthy people, so with this virus.

Are you suggesting there's a material misstatement because of this issue. Have you anything to back this up?

Nope, absolutely not suggesting that and no I haven't anything to back things up. I'm just intrigued sometimes by reporting of stuff like this and especially figures. Things like "35 people have tested positive today" can make me think well people who feel unwell are told to stay at home and absolutely NOT go to the doctors, so who are these 35 who were tested and what is different about them. And things like "368 deaths overnight from Covid 19" in one country just makes me wonder whether figures are not deliberately being misrepresented, but yet are riddled with speculation and inaccuracies and are therefore misleading. This is very important imo as many of the great (well not so great it now seems) British public base their behaviours for the day on the headline figures they read.

[thatdberight]

Nope, absolutely not suggesting that and no I haven't anything to back things up. I'm just intrigued sometimes by reporting of stuff like this and especially figures. Things like "35 people have tested positive today" can make me think well people who feel unwell are told to stay at home and absolutely NOT go to the doctors, so who are these 35 who were tested and what is different about them. And things like "368 deaths overnight from Covid 19" in one country just makes me wonder whether figures are not deliberately being misrepresented, but yet are riddled with speculation and inaccuracies and are therefore misleading. This is very important imo as many of the great (well not so great it now seems) British public base their behaviours for the day on the headline figures they read.

OK then.

[1HappyClaret]

Cases are down but the number of tests are down. Yesterday 342 cases from 4,975 tests = 6.87%. Today 232 new cases from 2,535 tests = 9.17. This means that if we test the same amount today as yesterday there would be 456 cases which would mean a jump of 114 cases.

[Zlatan]

Latest government advice video, not pleasant viewing - especially if you’re easily offended

https://youtu.be/Hks6Nq7g6P4

[Lowbankclaret]

There isn't any need for mass testing. If you have any of the symptoms you should be following the self isolation routine regardless, it doesn't matter if its Coronavirus or a cold, common sense says treat it as if it is. That frees test kits for health workers and the at risk.
If people follow the advice already given there is no need for any lock down, no need for panic buying, no need to close schools no need to cancel football .

It’s working for South Korea.

Let’s see if the Boris plan works as well.

[Zlatan]

It’s working for South Korea.

Let’s see if the Boris plan works as well.

I initially quoted South Korea as an example where the data is likely to be more accurate because they’re testing more, which they are (And the fatality rate is still massively lower there And it’s measurably lower because of the data they have). Their only advantage over us and our approach is evidencing that the approach is the right way. I strongly suspect that our government have decided that we don’t need to actually waste time testing to satisfy stats, it is a waste of valuable resource, so don’t do it.

[thatdberight]

I initially quoted South Korea as an example where the data is likely to be more accurate because they’re testing more, which they are (And the fatality rate is still massively lower there And it’s measurably lower because of the data they have). Their only advantage over us and our approach is evidencing that the approach is the right way. I strongly suspect that our government have decided that we don’t need to actually waste time testing to satisfy stats, it is a waste of valuable resource, so don’t do it.

Wasn't South Korea's outbreak unusual in that it was very heavily-centred on one area because it was in a specific religious community?

[Dy1geo]

There is a good video going round explaining that it can be counterintuitive to start closing schools gatherings etc too early and we have to manage the cases in the early stage whilst imposing more draconian measures later in order to maximise the efficiency of those measures.

This is a global issue that but the unfortunate thing is each country is at a different stage, blaming Boris is an easy thing to do, Michelle Collins the ex East Enders actress said for him to sort out the fact that she couldn’t get an Hand Sanitisers.

When this is over we need as a country to have a debate over the Healthcare we want and on the flip side willing to pay for.

[Zlatan]

Wasn't South Korea's outbreak unusual in that it was very heavily-centred on one area because it was in a specific religious community?

I honestly don’t know how the outbreak in SK occurred. I do know their approach shows they are dealing with it well and have provided valuable data to the planet on which to base decisions.

[Heathclaret]

Baby milk and nappies now being sold on Ebay at highly inflated prices. I realise it’s not illegal, but it is immoral. Some people have no shame.

[thatdberight]

Tomorrow's Guardian reporting up to 80% of UK population expected to be infected over 12 months - up to 7.9 million hospitalisations quoting a "secret" PHE briefing for senior NHS officials.

However, typically for The Grauniad, they seem to have problems comprehending it;

"...previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected..."

"Worst case" sounds suspiciously like "as many as" to anyone with a brain. Not if you've got an agenda, though.

[JarrowClaret]

For those concerned and have Twitter check this guy out quite reassuring I thought.

https://twitter.com/Tankslider

Edit I meant check out his thread on the Government response

[paulatky]

The number of hospitalisations is a frightening figure. Its almost 10% of the population.

Dont we only have 167,000 hospital beds.

[Zlatan]

Tomorrow's Guardian reporting up to 80% of UK population expected to be infected over 12 months - up to 7.9 million hospitalisations quoting a "secret" PHE briefing for senior NHS officials.

However, typically for The Grauniad, they seem to have problems comprehending it;

"...previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected..."

"Worst case" sounds suspiciously like "as many as" to anyone with a brain. Not if you've got an agenda, though.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... spitalised

Link here.

All emergency preparedness meetings I’ve ever been involved with have to consider worse case scenarios - it’s kind of the point of them. This is sensationalising journalism at its worst - may as well been the Express talking about snow storms...

[Zlatan]

The number of hospitalisations is a frightening figure. Its almost 10% of the population.

Dont we only have 167,000 hospital beds.

You’re going to make yourself ill worrying at the extremities of the estimations, probably cause yourself more damage than this virus ever will, please consider taking a step back eh

[HieronymousBoschHobs]

Tomorrow's Guardian reporting up to 80% of UK population expected to be infected over 12 months - up to 7.9 million hospitalisations quoting a "secret" PHE briefing for senior NHS officials.

However, typically for The Grauniad, they seem to have problems comprehending it;

"...previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected..."

"Worst case" sounds suspiciously like "as many as" to anyone with a brain. Not if you've got an agenda, though.

Sounds more like you’ve got an agenda against the Guardian.

[thatdberight]

Sounds more like you’ve got an agenda against the Guardian.

I do. It's a rag.

However the fact of trying to make out "worst case" and "as many as" to be different speaks for itself in this case. It's a piece that would do the Daily Mail proud.

[HieronymousBoschHobs]

I do. It's a rag.

However the fact of trying to make out "worst case" and "as many as" to be different speaks for itself in this case. It's a piece that would do the Daily Mail proud.

Well they are chasing clicks and eyeballs like everyone else I guess. More interesting I thought was this:

The document also states that:

The health service cannot cope with the sheer number of people with symptoms who need to be tested because laboratories are “under significant demand pressures”.
From now on only the very seriously ill who are already in hospital and people in care homes and prisons where the coronavirus has been detected will get tested.
Testing services are under such strain that even NHS staff will not be swabbed, despite their key role and the risk of them passing the virus on to patients.

Everything I’ve read suggests widespread and efficient testing is key to handling the outbreak.

[Spiral]

I was having a conversation with a mate of mine about the coverage of this, the reporting of official advice etc, and notwithstanding any justifiable criticism of the govt's communication, we came to the conclusion that the print media, right across the spectrum, has utterly squandered what responsibility it might have had in maintaining perspective. I don't know how any reasonable person could have watched Johnson's press conference mid week and though it outrageous, but folks getting their information second hand seem to be panicking an awful lot. I don't expect independent media to act as a mouthpiece for the govt, but there's a responsibility on any organisation that prides itself on integrity not to couch its reporting in language which causes panic.

[Dy1geo]

To anyone that getting worried over the illness Nadine Dorries (please leave politics out) wrote a piece in The Times about her experience of the illness yes she was pretty rough (coughing her worst symptom) but her 84 year old Mother who caught it off her and who has a list of health issues including her ones affecting Heart had less severe symptoms and both are recovering well.

This is not a death sentence just because a person has underlying issues

[JarrowClaret]

Try this link as well very informative also goes into the different country governments policy towards the end.

https://greyharemedia.com/covid-19-an-i ... ssessment/

[Jakubclaret]

To anyone that getting worried over the illness Nadine Dorries (please leave politics out) wrote a piece in The Times about her experience of the illness yes she was pretty rough (coughing her worst symptom) but her 84 year old Mother who caught it off her and who has a list of health issues including her ones affecting Heart had less severe symptoms and both are recovering well.

This is not a death sentence just because a person has underlying issues

It’s not it’s the luck of the draw if you can call it that, some will fall lucky & some not, each individual body will respond differently to treatment & some will fight harder to resist & the extent of the underlying illness will vary in severity, there’s no exact rule book.

[HieronymousBoschHobs]

I was having a conversation with a mate of mine about the coverage of this, the reporting of official advice etc, and notwithstanding any justifiable criticism of the govt's communication, we came to the conclusion that the print media, right across the spectrum, has utterly squandered what responsibility it might have had in maintaining perspective. I don't know how any reasonable person could have watched Johnson's press conference mid week and though it outrageous, but folks getting their information second hand seem to be panicking an awful lot. I don't expect independent media to act as a mouthpiece for the govt, but there's a responsibility on any organisation that prides itself on integrity not to couch its reporting in language which causes panic.

Some panic, or more precisely, fear and concern, is not a bad thing if it results in increased awareness and positive behavioural change. I don’t see any looting or rioting, or people rounding up anyone who looks a bit peaky and then driving them out of town. Some hoarding yes, but in a store that serves say several thousand people you only need a fairly small proportion to bulk buy and another proportion to perhaps buy a little more than they usually would ‘just in case’ for the shelves to become bare.

Besides, if the media are seen to be underplaying the danger, the conspiracy theorists will just fill the gap and outright falsehoods will begin to propagate. Simple, hyperbolic messages spread far more easily than complex, balanced ones. That’s just how the present media ecosystem works.

[thatdberight]

Everything I’ve read suggests widespread and efficient testing is key to handling the outbreak.

i confess they'd lost me by then. I don't know whether that statement relates to a current position or the way it will be managed over the twelve months. Either way not good but I'm not surprised that elements of a health system will be under pressure / stressed / broken during such an event.

Really weird comment in it - part of the paper or Guardian's overlay isn't clear:
"In the summer months... people spend more time out of doors and are less likely to be confined at close quarters in ... (an) office with people who are infected"

Of course summer holidays but, that apart, really?! Does anyone's boss often say, "Forget the office today, lads and lasses... let's all sit on the lawn"?

[RingoMcCartney]

It’s working for South Korea.

Let’s see if the Boris plan works as well.

I suggested that border posts that have been allowed to fall into disrepair, thanks to EU rules on freedom of movement. Could have been utilised in helping to slow the spread of the virus and in quarantining.

To which you , amongst many imbecilic "racist" comments, said -

The only person calling for this solution is the RAVING RACIST.

No one else

Since then, Czech Republic,
Norway,
Poland,
Denmark,
Austria,
Turkey,
Pakistan.
Vietnam,
Lebanon,
Israel, and a small number of Pacific Islands,
plus New Zealand who its said has the toughest border restrictions in the world. And today, Germany. Have all effectively closed their borders

Are all those countries governments "racist"?

All I said on Tuesday, was border checks could help.

And for that I got-

Ringo, your coming across as a raving racist.

Only one one person pops up with racist remarks.

No surprise to me it’s Ringo.

You even dragged Adolf Hitler into it , for God's sake!

Ringo Hitler McCartney is here, normal people can remove themselves from this thread.

I have requested he is banned for racist remarks.

We will see what happens

You've yet to explain why what I said was "racist."

Labelling someone as "racist" without good reason is serious enough. But throwing round the label like confetti , also has the effect of devaluing it , in cases of real racism. People like you help to desentisise the word when real racism rears its ugly head.


Now if you choose to label someone in a public forum "racist" you'd better have a bloody good reason to. If you dont you should apologise and retract that claim.

[rob63]

Cases are down but the number of tests are down. Yesterday 342 cases from 4,975 tests = 6.87%. Today 232 new cases from 2,535 tests = 9.17. This means that if we test the same amount today as yesterday there would be 456 cases which would mean a jump of 114 cases.

I think you meant to say, it would mean 456 cases if the percentage of positive tests is consistent at 9.17%. It might be higher or lower on a larger sample.

[Bullabill]

Does everyone know yet that Paul Waine has been skiing again ? He's only mentioned it about 47 times and you might have missed it.

[mapinchina]

I live in Hongshan District, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.
At the moment we are under "complete lockdown", since December 21st 2019.
No people are allowed to leave the community that they live in.
We are allowed to order snacks, sandwichess etc., online, that are then delivered to the main gates.
But, if you are not wearing a face mask then you will be escorted back to your room by security guards.
ALL public transport has been suspended and so has private transport, cars, etc. are not allowed on the road.
All sops, hotels etc., are closed.
Outside is completely deserted.
I think that it's more serious than flu or a bad cold as some have suggested.

[Colburn_Claret]

A few words of caution. The main symptoms of coronavirus are high temperature, difficulty breathing and persistent cough. None of these are symptoms of a 'mild cold'. If everyone self isolated for mild cold symptoms then the whole economy would collapse within a fortnight.

Michel Arteta tested positive for it. His wife said if it wasn't for the circumstances he would have taken paracetamol and gone to work. It doesn't sound bad does it.
Testing doesn't prevent anything, it just tells you if you have it and the only people who really do need to know if they have it are health workers and those at risk.
The other 99.5% of the country should take paracetamol and avoid contact with the outside world until they feel ok again. Just a precaution but much better than locking the whole country down.

[Colburn_Claret]

I live in Hongshan District, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.
At the moment we are under "complete lockdown", since December 21st 2019.
No people are allowed to leave the community that they live in.
We are allowed to order snacks, sandwichess etc., online, that are then delivered to the main gates.
But, if you are not wearing a face mask then you will be escorted back to your room by security guards.
ALL public transport has been suspended and so has private transport, cars, etc. are not allowed on the road.
All sops, hotels etc., are closed.
Outside is completely deserted.
I think that it's more serious than flu or a bad cold as some have suggested.

We get reports of the deaths in China but not of who is dying. So far every death in this country has been to the very elderly, most with underlying health problems. If that's the case elsewhere then it's only serious for that demographic, which is probably less than 0.5%, for the 99.5% it's a pain in the arse, but it isn't serious. Mass panic fuelled by the media dont help, the drama queens panic buying at the supermarket dont help. Locking down won't help, because until the vast majority have contracted this, and overcome it, it will just hang around even longer. It only takes one person to be carrying it post lockdown, and in 2 months you'd be back at square one. How does that help anybody.

[ClaretAndJew]

Here's a scenario.

Say I contract Coronavirus, I go to a relatively large University so it's a possibility. I'm constantly in contact with people. I'm also studying an Allied Health course, again, contact with people (some of them poorly).

I then go and see my Mum, give it to her. Mum works in a care home, she goes to work (without any symptoms) and.. transfers the virus into a care home full of elderly people.

Is that "fair enough"?

[thatdberight]

Here's a scenario.

Say I contract Coronavirus, I go to a relatively large University so it's a possibility. I'm constantly in contact with people. I'm also studying an Allied Health course, again, contact with people (some of them poorly).

I then go and see my Mum, give it to her. Mum works in a care home, she goes to work (without any symptoms) and.. transfers the virus into a care home full of elderly people.

Is that "fair enough"?

As opposed to?

[ClaretAndJew]

As opposed to?

Well, exactly. There's nothing to compare it to. That's what we're supposed to do. Just keep our heads up and wash our hands and watch our loved ones "die before their time".

It's interesting to see the levels other countries have gone to, whilst we sit here doing nothing.

There's no single, correct way to do things, of that I'm sure, but, to do absolutely nothing is just as insane.

[thatdberight]

We get reports of the deaths in China but not of who is dying. So far every death in this country has been to the very elderly, most with underlying health problems. If that's the case elsewhere then it's only serious for that demographic, which is probably less than 0.5%, for the 99.5% it's a pain in the arse, but it isn't serious. Mass panic fuelled by the media dont help, the drama queens panic buying at the supermarket dont help. Locking down won't help, because until the vast majority have contracted this, and overcome it, it will just hang around even longer. It only takes one person to be carrying it post lockdown, and in 2 months you'd be back at square one. How does that help anybody.

While I come to the same conclusion as you, there's no science that supports your 99.5% figure. That's a huge overstatement.

[thatdberight]

Well, exactly. There's nothing to compare it to. That's what we're supposed to do. Just keep our heads up and wash our hands and watch our loved ones "die before their time".

It's interesting to see the levels other countries have gone to, whilst we sit here doing nothing.

There's no single, correct way to do things, of that I'm sure, but, to do absolutely nothing is just as insane.

Well, I'm just a layman like you but the "let it get to a certain level and then tighten things to limit the spread and control the numbers ill at any one time" sounds like a plan to me. I can't see a better alternative. I tend to the thought that this is now with us and immunity and exposure is the key to limit this being an annual lockdown.

[Zlatan]

Here's a scenario.

Say I contract Coronavirus, I go to a relatively large University so it's a possibility. I'm constantly in contact with people. I'm also studying an Allied Health course, again, contact with people (some of them poorly).

I then go and see my Mum, give it to her. Mum works in a care home, she goes to work (without any symptoms) and.. transfers the virus into a care home full of elderly people.

Is that "fair enough"?

If you're following the prescribed advice then yes, that's fair enough.

[ClaretAndJew]

Well, I'm just a layman like you but the "let it get to a certain level and then tighten things to limit the spread and control the numbers ill at any one time" sounds like a plan to me. I can't see a better alternative. I tend to the thought that this is now with us and immunity and exposure is the key to limit this being an annual lockdown.

Right, but it's not about me or you or people that can get it and recover, it's about giving it to people who are at risk. This virus is infectious without being symptomatic, that's the scary thing. Just spreading it around without even knowing it.

I'm convinced things will close down soon in the UK. We are marginally behind Italy and look at them. We'll do similar when enough pressure is put on the government.

[jedi_master]

We get reports of the deaths in China but not of who is dying. So far every death in this country has been to the very elderly, most with underlying health problems. If that's the case elsewhere then it's only serious for that demographic, which is probably less than 0.5%, for the 99.5% it's a pain in the arse, but it isn't serious. Mass panic fuelled by the media dont help, the drama queens panic buying at the supermarket dont help. Locking down won't help, because until the vast majority have contracted this, and overcome it, it will just hang around even longer. It only takes one person to be carrying it post lockdown, and in 2 months you'd be back at square one. How does that help anybody.

A 59 year old is the 'very elderly'?

[evensteadiereddie]

I suggested that border posts that have been allowed to fall into disrepair, thanks to EU rules on freedom of movement. Could have been utilised in helping to slow the spread of the virus and in quarantining.

To which you , amongst many imbecilic "racist" comments, said -



Since then, Czech Republic,
Norway,
Poland,
Denmark,
Austria,
Turkey,
Pakistan.
Vietnam,
Lebanon,
Israel, and a small number of Pacific Islands,
plus New Zealand who its said has the toughest border restrictions in the world. And today, Germany. Have all effectively closed their borders

Are all those countries governments "racist"?

All I said on Tuesday, was border checks could help.

And for that I got-









You even dragged Adolf Hitler into it , for God's sake!






You've yet to explain why what I said was "racist."

Labelling someone as "racist" without good reason is serious enough. But throwing round the label like confetti , also has the effect of devaluing it , in cases of real racism. People like you help to desentisise the word when real racism rears its ugly head.


Now if you choose to label someone in a public forum "racist" you'd better have a bloody good reason to. If you dont you should apologise and retract that claim.

[thatdberight]

Right, but it's not about me or you or people that can get it and recover, it's about giving it to people who are at risk. This virus is infectious without being symptomatic, that's the scary thing. Just spreading it around without even knowing it.

I'm convinced things will close down soon in the UK. We are marginally behind Italy and look at them. We'll do similar when enough pressure is put on the government.

Do you think you're the only one who has vulnerable loved ones? Do assume everybody else who has a different view has it because they're a selfish ****?

The virus, by the way, is not particularly infectious while the carrier is asymptomatic. That's the science.

I agree a government only governs with consent. So if the country decides to ignore the science and hope that by hiding away this virus will somehow pass over us, that may be what we do. Following the mass and not the science would be a mistake. But if the country decides it knows better, while stocking up on toilet paper it doesn't need...

[Zlatan]

A 59 year old is the 'very elderly'?

I think the comment was meant to be generally. The 59 year old had recently had a heart attack and also had other underlying issues

[Zlatan]

It's on my foe list, and you've made me read it's post...

[NottsClaret]

You’re going to make yourself ill worrying at the extremities of the estimations, probably cause yourself more damage than this virus ever will, please consider taking a step back eh

It's a fair point. Remember reading about Chernobyl, and the panic, evacuation and stress of relocation and social isolation meant those who refused to leave ended up living longer in better health than those who left.

The mental health aspect shouldn't be ignored - a couple of months ago you couldn't move for campaigns about it - just think what the stress, anxiety and fear being spread around is doing to some people. Understanding the serious risks to certain groups is important but this frenzy, particularly on social media - isn't helping anyone.

Just remember when you post a doomsday scenario somebody will be reading it and passing it on as gospel.

[ClaretAndJew]

Do you think you're the only one who has vulnerable loved ones? Do assume everybody else who has a different view has it because they're a selfish ****?

The virus, by the way, is not particularly infectious while the carrier is asymptomatic. That's the science.

I agree a government only governs with consent. So if the country decides to ignore the science and hope that by hiding away this virus will somehow pass over us, that may be what we do. Following the mass and not the science would be a mistake. But if the country decides it knows better, while stocking up on toilet paper it doesn't need...

This article suggests it is infectious when not symptomatic.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cor ... k-symptoms

As does this

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/heal ... index.html

And this paper is 11 days old, and suggests that asymptomatic people may be infectious

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

[evensteadiereddie]

It's on my foe list, and you've made me read it's post...

Sorry !

[thatdberight]

This article suggests it is infectious when not symptomatic.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cor ... k-symptoms

As does this

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/heal ... index.html

And this paper is 11 days old, and suggests that asymptomatic people may be infectious

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

Thanks. The first of those particularly is interesting.

CDC doesn't discount asymptomatic transmission but plays it down as a means of transmission.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ssion.html

Much more science still to come, I'm sure.

[paulatky]

While I come to the same conclusion as you, there's no science that supports your 99.5% figure. That's a huge overstatement.

Latest figures show 26% of the UK population were over 65 years old.

[thatdberight]

Latest figures show 26% of the UK population were over 65 years old.

It's not a competition to see who can come up with the wildest overstatement.

[Zlatan]

I'm not directing this at any forum users in particular, but I am sure I'll offend someone. I saw the following on Twitter and I was going to save it as an insult, but there are too many candidates for it at the moment...

"I see that someone snuck into the genepool when the lifeguards weren't looking"

[ClaretAndJew]

I'm not directing this at any forum users in particular, but I am sure I'll offend someone. I saw the following on Twitter and I was going to save it as an insult, but there are too many candidates for it at the moment...

"I see that someone snuck into the genepool when the lifeguards weren't looking"

Wouldn't that mean that the lifeguards were not doing an adequate job, meaning that those that entered the pool outsmarted the lifeguards and in doing so have enhanced the pool?