Covid-19

[randomclaret2]

"Im sure a trade deal with America will probably bring those practices to Britain."
Yes, definitely, absolutely certain

[Paul Waine]

If people are still paying $5 for a cup of coffee, I think we can assume we're some way off Armageddon. They could always put on a ******* kettle.

From memory, Starbucks is not as expensive in US as it is in London.

[KateR]

If people are still paying $5 for a cup of coffee, I think we can assume we're some way off Armageddon. They could always put on a ******* kettle.

it's just a cultural difference like many others, Brits do it there way, Americans love the drive through, I use the drive banking, which I thought, this is a good idea just to get cash but probably being lazy, it was just there when I was thinking I need cash. Americans seem to love to drive through early mornings on there way to work, they don't make it at home, saves 5 mins more in bed, then they either have it in the traffic jam or they take it into work and start the day that way. So many people, especially students lounge about with laptops in coffee bars, routines definitely being changed, question is will the public go back to original routines after the scare dies down, I would say most will.

As I say just a cultural thing but all in all helping with social distancing by closing the doors to the public, they did it voluntary also so that is a plus for them, even Apple closing there stores.

this is the type of thing makes me angry:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51909045

[thatdberight]

At the of January, "Patient Zero" was being ascribed to a man in his 70s who was diagnosed December 1.
"A doctor who was involved... told the BBC that the patient was a patient with cerebral infarction at home in his 70s."

It's now being ascribed to a man of 55 (South China Morning Post 13 March), ill from November 17 (although much work continues to validate this or otherwise).

The direct link or otherwise of the man in his 70s to the market (or anywhere/anyone else) seems irrelevant to the start of the outbreak as best they know.

[Gordaleman]

Welcome to my world. A world where a certain poster will claim previous statements that are still visible were not said or they didn't mean what they said or when you show that they were completely false, you're "nitpicking".

Although this poster did also say he had "... never knowingly told a lie since I was a kid."

So, since you appear to be dealing with the Son of God, I'd watch my step if I were you.

Nice to see you proving right another poster who you seem to disagree with.

jsrclaret wrote this to you:

Yes because you're the only poster capable of understanding anything and talking any sense. You're the only one who isn't thick. Without you holding this board together, it would be infiltrated by extremists. You're right to be as arrogant as you are.

For the benefit of everyone else on this board who can't understand even the most simple of things, I am of course being sarcastic here.

Anyway, take some time to reflect on the way you converse with people and we'll leave it there in order to avoid any further unpleasantness on this thread. Cheers.

[FactualFrank]

In Vitro Antiviral Activity and Projection of Optimized Dosing Design of Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150618

[LoveCurryPies]

Any Mathematicians here?

If you take:
(a) the worldwide number of 'recovered' coronavirus patients at 84,492
(b) the number of worldwide dead at 6,705
- then that means 8% is the approximate death rate?

I have not counted the 89,520 of 'Active' victims because we don't know which of the two groups they will fall into.

Note: the figures are from the new website created by Microsoft https://www.bing.com/covid ).

I expect a few people here will say we should take total figure 174,012 and the death figures so it is only 0.04% chance of death.

Is this correct?

[thatdberight]

Nice to see you proving right another poster who you seem to disagree with.

jsrclaret wrote this to you:

Yes because you're the only poster capable of understanding anything and talking any sense. You're the only one who isn't thick. Without you holding this board together, it would be infiltrated by extremists. You're right to be as arrogant as you are.

For the benefit of everyone else on this board who can't understand even the most simple of things, I am of course being sarcastic here.

Anyway, take some time to reflect on the way you converse with people and we'll leave it there in order to avoid any further unpleasantness on this thread. Cheers.

ksrclaret*

[Zlatan]

Any Mathematicians here?

If you take:
(a) the worldwide number of 'recovered' coronavirus patients at 84,492
(b) the number of worldwide dead at 6,705
- then that means 8% is the approximate death rate?

I have not counted the 89,520 of 'Active' victims because we don't know which of the two groups they will fall into.

Note: the figures are from the new website created by Microsoft https://www.bing.com/covid ).

I expect a few people here will say we should take total figure 174,012 and the death figures so it is only 0.04% chance of death.

Is this correct?

No, it's not correct.

You have fallen into the trap that most people have when looking at the numbers. For a more accurate "rate" please look at South Korea, currently 75 deaths with 8236 confirmed cases. I only highlight SK because they have tested far more of the population than anywhere else, so they are more likely to have gathered the data that sits in the "unknown" section of the denominator (the number at the bottom of the fraction when calculating a rate). As it is, most countries are not mass testing, and as such can have a vast majority of people who have been infected (and recovered remember) not added to the denominator.

I'm sure others will be along in a minute to tell me I'm wrong...

[Lowbankclaret]

Any Mathematicians here?

If you take:
(a) the worldwide number of 'recovered' coronavirus patients at 84,492
(b) the number of worldwide dead at 6,705
- then that means 8% is the approximate death rate?

I have not counted the 89,520 of 'Active' victims because we don't know which of the two groups they will fall into.

Note: the figures are from the new website created by Microsoft https://www.bing.com/covid ).

I expect a few people here will say we should take total figure 174,012 and the death figures so it is only 0.04% chance of death.

Is this correct?

You must have missed some of the opening debates on this thread.

The closed case number dropped to about 5.8 % at one point and has climbed again recently. Most will argue it’s completely irrelevant.
Using the number active against deaths is also argued as being irrelevant because you don’t know how many are out there infected but untested.

So everyone is working on the guessometer theory and it’s a number below 1%.

Whatever the percentage, it’s has become apparent we are in the SH1T.

[thatdberight]

If you take:
(a) the worldwide number of 'recovered' coronavirus patients at 84,492
(b) the number of worldwide dead at 6,705
- then that means 8% is the approximate death rate?

Yes

I expect a few people here will say we should take total figure 174,012 and the death figures so it is only 0.04% chance of death.

Not unless they misplace two decimal points. 4%.

Both those stats are valid and correct. They do not tell you what the IFR (infection fatality ratio) is going to be as that can only be measured retrospectively. I have not seen any updates to the c.1% consensus that the WHO quoted a few weeks back (which is a lifetime in this sort of thing). That was done by clever people modellling what they know about this with what they know about other outbreaks and infections. In the absence of any update, I'm not going to second guess the people who know what they're talking about so, until otherwise told, I'll stick with that.

The dangers of using crude mortality rates during an epidemic such as the 8% are specifically written about on various credible sites. Remember that.

[Gordaleman]

ksrclaret*

Pulling people on typos now? That says a lot.

[Lowbankclaret]

Yes



Not unless they misplace two decimal points. 4%.

Both those stats are valid and correct. They do not tell you what the IFR (infection fatality ratio) is going to be as that can only be measured retrospectively. I have not seen any updates to the c.1% consensus that the WHO quoted a few weeks back (which is a lifetime in this sort of thing). That was done by clever people modellling what they know about this with what they know about other outbreaks and infections. In the absence of any update, I'm not going to second guess the people who know what they're talking about so, until otherwise told, I'll stick with that.

The dangers of using crude mortality rates during an epidemic such as the 8% are specifically written about on various credible sites. Remember that.

On the 3rd of March the WHO changed their estimate to be 3.4% mortality rate.

[Gordaleman]

Oh heck, that's buggered it. I've just sold a couple of Silver coins on Ebay, so I'll have to go out and face the virus to post them. There was me thinking it gave me something to do while I was stuck at home.

[Zlatan]

Any Mathematicians here?

LCP you little tinker you... I see what you did, you refocused the thread back on course by appealing to the main protagonists who debated previously...

[Lowbankclaret]

All non essential travel to the EU banned for 30 days.

[FactualFrank]

LCP you little tinker you... I see what you did, you refocused the thread back on course by appealing to the main protagonists who debated previously...

Yes, I did shake my head and let out a quiet "For F**k's Sake", when I'd read his post.

[thatdberight]

On the 3rd of March the WHO changed their estimate to be 3.4% mortality rate.

No, they didn't. You keep saying that. You keep being wrong. The exact quote was, "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died."

That's a statement of what had happened. Just a simple division. Not an estimate of IFR which at least I have more than enough humility to understand is something I can only repeat parrot fashion from experts instead of thinking I am one.

But you don't care. You're reassured by the higher number in some unfathomable way.

Mar 03
Deaths to date: 3,202
Total cases to date: 93,016
Simple / anybody can do this CFR: 3.4%

[thatdberight]

All non essential travel to the EU banned for 30 days.

Source?

[evensteadiereddie]

To be fair Paul, I agree with your arguement, but had I said the same I'd have been accused of bringing politics into the thread. Believe it or not, I was accused of just that when I made my suggestion that the border posts that have been allowed to fall into disrepair as part of the European union Free movement of people policy. Could have utilised in helping to slow the spread of the virus and quarantining! Even though it was a thread about the virus.

Your opinion that "Our borders should be manned better." Isn't a million miles away from what I said. I was branded by several posters as "racist".......

You were branded a racist ?

Why haven't you mentioned it ?

[FactualFrank]

Source?

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/eu-bans- ... -12406158/

[thatdberight]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/eu-bans- ... -12406158/

Thank you!

I doubt she'd be going public if it wasn't already pre-packed and ready to go with the heads of state.

[Gordaleman]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/eu-bans- ... -12406158/

So it's something that has been suggested, not implemented as the first quote indicated?

Just edited a typo in case I got pulled up on it.

[KateR]

I really don't care about the percentage death rate because all information is flawed and it is less than anything you provide a link to.

I really do care about what it does to whom and things like age groups, I think we can all agree (cue the argumentative types on here) that you are much more at risk in older age brackets and certainly if you have certain underlying health issues.

I read about what different countries do but regardless of what any Gov. proposes we know if you are well and self isolate you would have a 99.99% of surviving.

Therefore I really care about how long you need to self isolate depending upon the country you are in and when this should happen, a couple of weeks, easy, a month getting difficult, a month+ Yowzer. Given the UK seem to be saying we are 10 - 14 weeks from the peak that is a very long time to self isolate, is it worse to do it with a family or do it as an individual.

I do care the market economy is collapsing and think the Saudis and Russians need to get there act together, thought Trump threatening to tax Saudi oil was interesting, glad at least to see some leading countries getting together on rate reductions and funding to prop the market up, at least they seem to have done this fairly early and hopefully when the virus passes we are not back to post 2008 and start austerity again just when we seemed to be coming out of it.

[Lowbankclaret]

Source?

The headline stated that, later it was said it’s a proposal to be voted on tomorrow.

[Lowbankclaret]

No, they didn't. You keep saying that. You keep being wrong. The exact quote was, "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died."

That's a statement of what had happened. Just a simple division. Not an estimate of IFR which at least I have more than enough humility to understand is something I can only repeat parrot fashion from experts instead of thinking I am one.

But you don't care. You're reassured by the higher number in some unfathomable way.

Mar 03
Deaths to date: 3,202
Total cases to date: 93,016
Simple / anybody can do this CFR: 3.4%

Again the estimate statement is in the headline, you are correct in what you say.

EE7F68ED-267E-4FF2-8726-3D0AE7CE072C.png (807.62 KiB) Viewed 2156 times

[thatdberight]

Again the estimate statement is in the headline, you are correct in what you say.

EE7F68ED-267E-4FF2-8726-3D0AE7CE072C.png

No. It's not an estimate. It's a statement of fact. Chuffing hell this is difficult. There is no estimate of future outcomes made. Other than by you. Wrongly. Again.

[Lowbankclaret]

The current WHO news briefing kicks Bojo, right in nuts.

There main advise is “test, test, test”. Then isolate for two weeks after symptoms go.

[Zlatan]

Lowbankclaret, for fear of going over old ground please humour me.

Please can you tell me where in the calculation you keep referring to does the number of people who have contracted the virus and have not been tested but have recovered is accounted for? (Our PM stated last week that the medical experts expected this number to be much larger than they have for confirmed cases).

[Lowbankclaret]

No. It's not an estimate. It's a statement of fact. Chuffing hell this is difficult. There is no estimate of future outcomes made. Other than by you. Wrongly. Again.

So the word estimate is not in the headline??

I was admitting you were correct by the way.

[thatdberight]

So the word estimate is not in the headline??

I was admitting you were correct by the way.

That is not an estimate. Dr. Ghebreyesus did not portray it as an estimate. Whoever wrote that headline is not an official but just someone from a site that gets advertising revenue from scam sites and desperately wants clicks so has no responsbility or need to be reliable.

Example of their advertising:

bg.jpg (24.84 KiB) Viewed 2113 times

[thatdberight]

This article suggests it is infectious when not symptomatic.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cor ... k-symptoms

As does this

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/heal ... index.html

And this paper is 11 days old, and suggests that asymptomatic people may be infectious

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

Update from WHO today suggesting short (but important) window of transmission before symptoms
"...find out who they have been in close contact with up to 2 days before they developed symptoms"

[Lowbankclaret]

That is not an estimate. Dr. Ghebreyesus did not portray it as an estimate. Whoever wrote that headline is not an official but just someone from a site that gets advertising revenue from scam sites and desperately wants clicks so has no responsbility or need to be reliable.

Example of their advertising:
bg.jpg

I read it and posted what I thought it said, you corrected me and I admitted I got it wrong.

After admitting it your second post I think was unnecessary.

All sites have click bait.

Let’s see what Boris says now the WHO basically say he has got it all wrong.

[Lowbankclaret]

Lowbankclaret, for fear of going over old ground please humour me.

Please can you tell me where in the calculation you keep referring to does the number of people who have contracted the virus and have not been tested but have recovered is accounted for? (Our PM stated last week that the medical experts expected this number to be much larger than they have for confirmed cases).

Apologies Zlatan.

I am not clear what you mean, I might be being thick.

I am keen not to start another argurement.

[Gordaleman]

Prison Officer in Surrey's High Down prison confirmed to have the virus. That of course is bad for him but the more important thing is what it might lead to. Visitors not allowed? Riots as a result. Who knows?

[Gordaleman]

Latest statement from Boris and co due in a few secs afer latest meeting.

[Lowbankclaret]

Boris is on the stand!

[thatdberight]

I read it and posted what I thought it said, you corrected me and I admitted I got it wrong.

After admitting it your second post I think was unnecessary.

All sites have click bait.

Let’s see what Boris says now the WHO basically say he has got it all wrong.

OK. I don't mean to be this bad-tempered and, whatever it seems like, it's not personal.

[FactualFrank]

What did Boris say.

[FactualFrank]

"Now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel," the prime minister says.

Anyone who lives with someone who has a cough or a temperature should stay at home for 14 days
People should start working from home where they possible can
Avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues
Only use the NHS when we really need to

[KateR]

wash hands and sing happy birthday.

[Zlatan]

wash hands and sing happy birthday.

Yes, that as well. Can’t stop doing the right thing

[Gordaleman]

I was due an appointment with my doctor on Thursday over my heart condition. I've just been contacted by the surgery and told that instead, I will get a phone call from my doctor.

I've no problem with that. I fully understand the reasoning behind it.

[Lowbankclaret]

People in high risk groups need to isolate for 12 weeks from the weekend.

I think my work will want me to be retired in that time!!

There’s always a positive!

[evensteadiereddie]

This all reminds me of the final lines of the Adrian Mitchell poem, "Your Attention, Please." concerning a catastrophic nuclear attack.


"Some of us may die.
Remember, statistically
It is not likely to be you.
All flags are flying fully dressed
On Government buildings – the sun is shining.
Death is the least we have to fear.
We are all in the hands of God,
Whatever happens happens by His Will.
Now go quickly to your shelters."...........................

[KateR]

Yes, that as well. Can’t stop doing the right thing

totally agree, wasn't trying to be flippant, I think this is the best preventative measure there is to catching the virus at the moment before the final step of self isolation.

I think/believe BJ & Co are doing what is advised by the chief Medical and Scientific appointees and he would be very foolish not to do that regardless of what other countries and even the WHO organization says. We all have the same info from all outlets and have brains that can work things out, as said before I totally don't accept what Lowbanks and the WHO say regarding morality rates based on no one knows how many people have been infected and recovered but they do know fairly accurately everyday how many people die. They only have one constant to work off, the other is an unknown and maths is an exact science and therefore the death percentage is at best a trend or a worst case scenario in know cases against known deaths.

[tiger76]

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the UK is approaching the "fast growth part of the upward curve" in the coronavirus outbreak.

He says without "drastic action", cases could double every five to six days.

As a result, the government is asking for people to begin avoiding all unnecessary social contact.

London is a few weeks ahead in terms of the virus curve than other places - meaning transmission is happening more rapidly, the PM says.

For this reason, he says, those in the capital need to be especially cautious.

The government, he continues, recognises that the "very draconian" measures he has outlined will be “asking a lot" from everyone.

Are these measures that draconian compared to other European countries?

No school closures,not yet anyway.

[Dy1geo]

I just think Boris should be there with Piers Morgan on his left and Caprice on his right as they seem to know more than the experts

[thatdberight]

I'm happy with the government's plan but surprised that the WHO experts are so far away from the UK ones on the question of testing. Other things seem a difference of approach. This seems like one set of experts believe you need population-wide data, one set doesn't.

[thatdberight]

I just think Boris should be there with Piers Morgan on his left and Caprice on his right as they seem to know more than the experts

They can get to the back of the queue. Wayne Rooney's got first dibs.