Covid-19

[Colburn_Claret]

Any Mathematicians here?

If you take:
(a) the worldwide number of 'recovered' coronavirus patients at 84,492
(b) the number of worldwide dead at 6,705
- then that means 8% is the approximate death rate?

I have not counted the 89,520 of 'Active' victims because we don't know which of the two groups they will fall into.

Note: the figures are from the new website created by Microsoft https://www.bing.com/covid ).

I expect a few people here will say we should take total figure 174,012 and the death figures so it is only 0.04% chance of death.

Is this correct?

It's hard to put a figure on how many have recovered, considering the symptoms are so mild for some people that they could have had it, recovered and not even realise it. They should count but are impossible to quantify.

[Colburn_Claret]

No. It's not an estimate. It's a statement of fact. Chuffing hell this is difficult. There is no estimate of future outcomes made. Other than by you. Wrongly. Again.

You do realise that its impossible to have a fact and an estimate at the same time. You can have one or the other, but not both

[tiger76]

It's hard to put a figure on how many have recovered, considering the symptoms are so mild for some people that they could have had it, recovered and not even realise it. They should count but are impossible to quantify.

As you state there's no numbers for the milder cases,but going off the estimates it will be in the thousands,and clearly it'll rise over time.

We'll likely never have a definite figure for the amount of infections in the UK,or indeed worldwide,but it's fair to guess it will be in the millions at least,and possibly 10's or 100's of millions,thankfully the vast majority of those will fully recover.

[thatdberight]

You do realise that its impossible to have a fact and an estimate at the same time. You can have one or the other, but not both

It's possible to have a fact from which one makes a future estimate. But in this case, you are saying exactly the same as me. Dr. Ghebreyesus was stating fact. And everyone is on that page now so all's good.

[KateR]

It's clearly going to rise, but when I look at the cases reported in India and Africa I would hazard a guess that those reported are much less than those who have actually had the virus and recovered.

Similarly USA will be the same as it goes through it's stages, so many undocumented people who dare not in most circumstance go to a doctor so if the get it they might or might not stay at home but will almost certainly never report it or be tested.

Other regions such as Far East, Asia and even Europe will have multiples of infected people who never were tested and certainly you know the UK will fall in this bracket as they stop testing.

[Spijed]

It's clearly going to rise, but when I look at the cases reported in India and Africa I would hazard a guess that those reported are much less than those who have actually had the virus and recovered.

Similarly USA will be the same as it goes through it's stages, so many undocumented people who dare not in most circumstance go to a doctor so if the get it they might or might not stay at home but will almost certainly never report it or be tested.

Other regions such as Far East, Asia and even Europe will have multiples of infected people who never were tested and certainly you know the UK will fall in this bracket as they stop testing.

Will be interesting to see how culture plays a part in the cases in countries such as Italy, Spain and France compared with the UK?

Such as kissing on both cheeks in places like Spain & Italy compared to the UK

[Zlatan]

Does anyone else think this is all a bit much for a cold?

[ClaretAndJew]

21 year old Spanish football coach dies from Coronavirus. He also had a form of leukemia but it goes to show, it's a nasty disease.

Also shows why we need to stay away from vulnerable people and try social distancing.

People are dying.

[Gordaleman]

21 year old Spanish football coach dies from Coronavirus. He also had a form of leukemia but it goes to show, it's a nasty disease.

Also shows why we need to stay away from vulnerable people and try social distancing.

People are dying.

That puts him at the 'At Risk' group because of his immune system probably being damaged by chemotherapy.

[ElectroClaret]

UK death toll up to 53.(BBC)

[ClaretAndJew]

That puts him at the 'At Risk' group because of his immune system probably being damaged by chemotherapy.

And a damn shame that he may have died a lot before his time given he was having treatment.

[KateR]

Will be interesting to see how culture plays a part in the cases in countries such as Italy, Spain and France compared with the UK?

Such as kissing on both cheeks in places like Spain & Italy compared to the UK

I think culture plays a huge role in this, many of these countries seem much closer to there elderly relatives than normal Brit's and am not trying to be racist when I say some British cultures that keep more to than themselves are also much closer to older relatives, as I said previously, India for example is very much the same culturally but have much poorer health facilities than Europe. Therefore I would expect the Indian sub Continent to be one of the worst hit, yet if we believe reporting they are not, (from the last global figures I saw) maybe they are lagging somewhat behind.

Of course the café culture in European countries could also have been a breeding ground, perhaps why London is worse hit than the rest of the country, but that's just a thought yet fits in with the cultural differences will be a factor IMO of course.

[Zlatan]

Does anyone else think this is all a bit much for a cold?

...and I don’t mean to be flippant when I said that. Perhaps I’ve watched too many Hollywood global disaster films (2012, Armageddon, Deep Impact etc) where the population are essentially controlled by something bad, but not as bad as what’s really coming, but bad enough to have a degree of Martial Law (Civillian lockdown supported by the military is effectively just that).

[Claret32yrs]

...and I don’t mean to be flippant when I said that. Perhaps I’ve watched too many Hollywood global disaster films (2012, Armageddon, Deep Impact etc) where the population are essentially controlled by something bad, but not as bad as what’s really coming, but bad enough to have a degree of Martial Law (Civillian lockdown supported by the military is effectively just that).

Wouldn't be a bad thing to hand over to the military IMO. Allow police to do an effective job. Military far better equipped at dealing with this. Better trained too.

[Gordaleman]

Not sure, that Boris's idea that people should stay away from pubs or clubs will have much effect. I've just spoken to two of my mates who I normally play snooker with on Monday's and Thursday's. Both say they are still going to the club tonight. Both are over 70 and in 'At risk' groups. If they are going, I can't imagine normal, healthy people staying away.

[FactualFrank]

Not sure, that Boris's idea that people should stay away from pubs or clubs will have much effect. I've just spoken to two of my mates who I normally play snooker with on Monday's and Thursday's. Both say they are still going to the club tonight. Both are over 70 and in 'At risk' groups. If they are going, I can't imagine normal, healthy people staying away.

While they are still open.

I guess there's the possibility at some point they'll be told to close.

[Burnley Ace]

Not sure, that Boris's idea that people should stay away from pubs or clubs will have much effect. I've just spoken to two of my mates who I normally play snooker with on Monday's and Thursday's. Both say they are still going to the club tonight. Both are over 70 and in 'At risk' groups. If they are going, I can't imagine normal, healthy people staying away.

This is the evidence that they will use to close everything ie. we tried to do it with consent but that hasn’t worked.

[RingoMcCartney]

All non essential travel to the EU banned for 30 days.

You appear the see the irony the fact that it's you who is making that post do you!

The EU effectively shuts its borders

I said on Tuesday, was border checks could help.

And for that I got-

Ringo, your coming across as a raving racist.

Only one one person pops up with racist remarks.

No surprise to me it’s Ringo.

You even dragged Adolf Hitler into it , for God's sake!

Ringo Hitler McCartney is here, normal people can remove themselves from this thread.

I have requested he is banned for racist remarks.

We will see what happens

You've yet to explain why what I said was "racist."

Is the eu "racist" now, Lowbank claret!?

[Lowbankclaret]

Not sure, that Boris's idea that people should stay away from pubs or clubs will have much effect. I've just spoken to two of my mates who I normally play snooker with on Monday's and Thursday's. Both say they are still going to the club tonight. Both are over 70 and in 'At risk' groups. If they are going, I can't imagine normal, healthy people staying away.

That’s their choice, but they might be really ****** if they die on a trolly .

Let’s hope not.

[evensteadiereddie]

Bonkers.

[Gordaleman]

Wouldn't be a bad thing to hand over to the military IMO. Allow police to do an effective job. Military far better equipped at dealing with this. Better trained too.

Do you realise just how few military and police we have these days? Military about 140,000, Police 120,000. They would be rather thinly spread out.

[Lowbankclaret]

Does anyone else think this is all a bit much for a cold?

We are being lied to. Only when someone you know gets it will people realise.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... t-11958542

[ksrclaret]

Just in-

Lowbank claret applies same unthinking logic to EU and brands it "racist"

If you don't want to discuss the coronavirus please leave this thread. There have been some important updates this evening and we don't want to have to sift through your tears to discuss things.

The title of thread is coronavirus and not Ringo McCartney. Please remember that. Thank you.

[Lowbankclaret]

Does anyone else think this is all a bit much for a cold?

We are being lied to. Only when someone you know gets it will people realise.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... t-11958542

[evensteadiereddie]

Just in. Ringo,Why don't you shut the **** up and stop playing the martyr ?The trick lost its novelty a long time ago.
You've managed to hijack yet another thread and attempted to make it all about you.
Complain to the mods if you are so aggrieved, at the moment you're just turning yourself into a laughing stock again.
Your choice, of course, but it's becoming embarrassing. I don't think anybody cares whether you are a racist too.

Sorry, ksr, you beat me to it.

[RingoMcCartney]

Just when you thought this thread couldn't get anymore unpleasant, Ringo pops up spewing his bile about foreigners.

Repost where I spewed bile about foreigners. You irrational , unthinking, reasoned logic lacking mouth piece.

If you're going to make accusations like that. Either back them up, report me to the mods and have what you class as " racist bile" as a hate crime with the police. You cannot simply label someone in a public forum without good reason.

[evensteadiereddie]

You just can't help yourself, can you ?

[Claret32yrs]

Do you realise just how few military and police we have these days? Military about 140,000, Police 120,000. They would be rather thinly spread out.

You do realise that's nowhere near correct. Anyway. The military's job is to protect the country. The police's job is not. Not sure who the police protect at all anymore. Army's duty is protect Queen and Country. British Military reserve is around 150,000. They would be not answerable in this crisis to normal police laws. It'd be a massive deterrent. Trust me. Police car outside a Supermarket. Morons would take a rap from a copper. Soldier comes in with an order to shoot to kill (which I think is necessary currently) with an SA80 or a Glock. People won't be naughty! More than enough reserves. If you think military aren't already on the streets observing, you're mistaken. They've been observing for weeks.

[ksrclaret]

Repost where I spewed bile about foreigners. You irrational , unthinking, reasoned logic lacking mouth piece.

If you're going to make accusations like that. Either back them up, report me to the mods and have what you class as " racist bile" as a hate crime with the police. You cannot simply label someone in a public forum without good reason.

If you don't want to discuss the coronavirus please leave this thread. There have been some important updates this evening and we don't want to have to sift through your tears to discuss things.

The title of thread is coronavirus and not Ringo McCartney. Please remember that. Thank you

[RingoMcCartney]

If you don't want to discuss the coronavirus please leave this thread. There have been some important updates this evening and we don't want to have to sift through your tears to discuss things.

The title of thread is coronavirus and not Ringo McCartney. Please remember that. Thank you.

You're absolutely correct . The title of the thread is Coronavirus.

I simply suggested that border controls and checks could help to slow the spread of the virus and quarantining.

Since I said it, countless nations have imposed draconian restrictions at their boarders.

The EU has stopped all essential travel into the EU.

If theres any tears its, from people, just like you, Who simply hate the idea that my suggestion have proven to be a prediction and I'm now , thanks to the actions of many nations around the world , and the EU, fully vindicated in suggesting it.

Thank you

[thatdberight]

We are being lied to. Only when someone you know gets it will people realise.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... t-11958542

[ksrclaret]

You're absolutely correct . The title of the thread is Coronavirus.

I simply suggested that border controls and checks could help to slow the spread of the virus and quarantining.

Since I said it, countless nations have imposed draconian restrictions at their boarders.

The EU has stopped all essential travel into the EU.

If theres any tears its, from people, just like you, Who simply hate the idea that my suggestion have proven to be a prediction and I'm now , thanks to the actions of many nations around the world , and the EU, fully vindicated in suggesting it.

Thank you

Better but still not quite there. Next time try and do a post where you don't talk about yourself.

If you don't want to discuss the coronavirus please leave this thread. There have been some important updates this evening and we don't want to have to sift through your tears to discuss things.

The title of thread is coronavirus and not Ringo McCartney. Please remember that. Thank you

[Burnley1989]

My Mrs is pregnant and the latest update has suggested she is now in the ‘most at risk’ category after being told for the last month that it doesn’t effect pregnant women

[evensteadiereddie]

As is my daughter, two weeks to go and now suddenly in full panic mode.

[RingoMcCartney]

Better but still not quite there. Next time try and do a post where you don't talk about yourself.

When it comes to what I can and cant post. Who made you God?

Next time you want to gob off and make imbecilic claims that someone is "spewing racist bile" for making a suggestion that has subsequently been adopted by countless countries and the EU. May I suggest you either back those adolescent - like claims up , or wind your neck in.

Getting over excited and throwing groundless claims of "racist bile" around like confetti, gets a justifiable reaction from people youre accusing . Which then clogs up threads with people simply asking you to justify your idiotic logic lacking claims. Dont do it in the first place.

[evensteadiereddie]

Come on, mods, get this McCartney idiot banned - again.

[Claretmatt4]

Ah lovely. 3385 posts and still just a handful of people calling each other names. So refreshing.

[FactualFrank]

If ever there was a thread that needed moderating, it's this one.

[evensteadiereddie]

But it's not "a handful of people calling each other names" is it ?
We've been discussing many, many aspects of this issue - an issue which makes Brexit seem completely irrelevant now - either in general or more, frightening personal terms and you have this fool McCartney bleating about how he's been wronged - again.
All folks are saying, is that he should complain to the mods if he's that offended or shut up and let an extremely serious discussion continue without his crass selfishness.

[Blackrod]

It’s a good thread but needs keeping on the subject matter. It could become quite helpful.

[evensteadiereddie]

Absolutely. It's useful that posters keep updating the latest developments and let discussions ensue. The official developments, that is.

[AlargeClaret]

The govt have been very clear that “ no particular risk is associated with pregnant women ,the move is precautionary “ And tbf when there immune system is all over the shop it’s common sense they consider themselves in one of the high red risks groups surely

[ClaretAndJew]

My Mrs is pregnant and the latest update has suggested she is now in the ‘most at risk’ category after being told for the last month that it doesn’t effect pregnant women

Good luck mate.

[ClaretAndJew]

My University has told us not to come in tomorrow. I expect them to push us into online teaching or something similar. We were all asked to fill in a mandate today advising them what equipment we have at home.

[Lowbankclaret]

I need to clarify why I think we are being lied to.

Three days ago the UK numbers for serious or critical was 20; people.

Today 3 days later it’s still 20 people critical or serious.

But 43 people died in that time.

Does not compute, sorry.

Then we have an article suggesting the NHS is already overloaded with ill patients.

[evensteadiereddie]

The govt have been very clear that “ no particular risk is associated with pregnant women ,the move is precautionary “ And tbf when there immune system is all over the shop it’s common sense they consider themselves in one of the high red risks groups surely

True enough.

[FactualFrank]

It’s a good thread but needs keeping on the subject matter. It could become quite helpful.

There's nothing more absolutely pathetic, than people throwing insults at each other, on a topic like this. There's no excuse.

[RingoMcCartney]

It’s a good thread but needs keeping on the subject matter. It could become quite helpful.

100% agree. I've got 3 very close family members who, for different reasons are in the "vulnerable" groups. As you'll be aware Blackrod, last week I made my first post on this thread. It was met with a number ridiculous , groundless accusations of it , and a subsequent post , being racist. Not a single one of those doing the accusing have given any attempt at justifying their ridiculous claims. Instead they've tried to take the moral high ground by saying I'm filling the thread with nonsense, while lacking any self awareness to realise that if you brand someone a "racist" then they should expect them to defend themselves vociferously. I mean, what do they expect.?

It's all the more galling when , what I said could help in slowing the spread and quarantining. Has subsequently been adopted across the bloody globe.

If people can resist the reflex need to make, pathetic , vacuous claims of "racism" , then as you say, the thread will be kept on track.

For what its worth, im genuinely, worried sick about the immediate next few days for my family. Which has only been made worse after talking to someone who is expected to be at the coal face of this virus over the weekend.

Believe it or not, defending myself against mindless , groundless accusations from , moronic unthinking clowns on a football message board is not what I want to be doing. Far, far bigger fish to fry Blackrod.

[thatdberight]

Three days ago the UK numbers for serious or critical was 20; people.

Today 3 days later it’s still 20 people critical or serious.

What's your primary source?

[Bfcboyo]

All a bit flawed and haphazard to be honest, but understandable considering it is all the unknown.

More testing required as children get a lot of temperatures. First child has temp so two weeks isolation untested . Second child has temp so a further two weeks isolation untested. Then parent contracts coronavirus and a further two weeks required.

Come on let's live in the real world , people would need some sort of support to achieve what the guidelines gov are suggesting.

It's down to the government to provide the testing to make their requests feasible.

Still think it will all be in a semi shut down in the next week once the true numbers come out.