Covid-19

[Colburn_Claret]

I understand the concerns around shops pubs etc but surely we have to look at the bigger picture rather than the financial side. What else should the Government do apart from stopping people going to small confined spaces? When it comes to insurance and payouts what insurance company in the world will be able to payout for the amount of businesses that will be closed? We will get more of an idea what the Government response to the financial hole this is going to cause maybe there will be some sort of interest free loan or grant for people and businesses.

It is difficult, which is why we all need to pull together, whether that is paying to keep businesses going, acting responsibly in our daily activities or looking out for the most vulnerable.
Sadly there is a tiny minority on this board, that will take anything less than Boris walking on water as abject failure. No matter what the government plan, and I have no idea, the same sad few are guaranteed to rip it apart.

[Lowbankclaret]

Strange isn't it, that with figures like those, the media doesn't decide to get people panicking every single year?

Yes, Covid 19 is very serious but as yet, it's killed a mere fraction of the numbers that Flu does. The thing is, the world is used to Flu and has become complacent about it. Covid-19 is something new for the world to get scared about.

I know you have consistently played this down, and I probably played it up whilst trying to read actually data.

The report used by the Gov which drove them to introduce the latest measures predicted a total deaths at 250,000, if no action was taken.

That would be 10 times the deaths of flu in the above chart.

I suppose it’s up to each individual to decide if that’s an acceptable figure, or support the gov actions to reduce it.

[Gordaleman]

I know you have consistently played this down, and I probably played it up whilst trying to read actually data.

The report used by the Gov which drove them to introduce the latest measures predicted a total deaths at 250,000, if no action was taken.

That would be 10 times the deaths of flu in the above chart.

I suppose it’s up to each individual to decide if that’s an acceptable figure, or support the gov actions to reduce it.

Would be, could be, should be. Let's deal in facts eh? No one, not even China or Italy has come anywhere near the 250,000 deaths you mention. So why should little island Britain be any different?

Edit: It appears that UK deaths have risen by only one today, so maybe that is a little reassurance?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Lowbankclaret]

Would be, could be, should be. Let's deal in facts eh? No one, not even China or Italy has come anywhere near the 250,000 deaths you mention. So why should little island Britain be any different?

Edit: It appears that UK deaths have risen by only one today, so maybe that is a little reassurance?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It’s the report that the Gov acted upon.

I think your 1 quote might be a little premature, that was Scotland’s announcement.

Yesterday the UK figures came out some time later.

[Lowbankclaret]

Would be, could be, should be. Let's deal in facts eh? No one, not even China or Italy has come anywhere near the 250,000 deaths you mention. So why should little island Britain be any different?

Edit: It appears that UK deaths have risen by only one today, so maybe that is a little reassurance?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Let’s not get back to that debate.
I used factual data before, it was questioned based on guessing how many people might be out their infected.

You cannot start arguing that predictions are would be, could be, etc as you built your while arguments against my use of of data based on exactly could be , would be , etc.

[tiger76]

"Infection rates in UK should come down in 2-3 weeks - UK government adviser
Sir Patrick Vallance
HoCCopyright: HoC
The UK government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance is appearing at the House of Common's health committee.

He tells MPs that the UK should start to see rates of infection come down in two to three weeks.

He says it would be "a good outcome" if the number of coronavirus-related deaths in the UK can be kept to below 20,000.

Yes just seen that 2-3 weeks sounds optimistic,given the Italian numbers,but if we can manage to get the infections coming down that should ease pressure on the NHS,and hopefully ease the public's nerves,as ever with this story time will tell.

Latest figures just been released and they don't make great reading.

The UK's Department of Health has confirmed 1,950 people had tested positive for coronavirus as of 09:00 GMT today.

That is a jump of 407 cases since yesterday - the biggest daily increase so far.

However, it was also the biggest number of tests in one day - 6,337 - with a total of 50,442 carried out so far.

That means 48,492 people have tested negative.

The latest confirmed number of deaths will be announced later today

[Billy Balfour]

I think we need a bit of a laugh.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1239694582763466753

[Gordaleman]

It’s the report that the Gov acted upon.

I think your 1 quote might be a little premature, that was Scotland’s announcement.

Yesterday the UK figures came out some time later.

Fair enough re Scotland but FACTS based on GUESSING? C'mon now.

[FactualFrank]

I think we need a bit of a laugh.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1239694582763466753

This is doing the rounds on Facebook... https://streamable.com/kz9yl

[Billy Balfour]

Supermarkets in Germany are being hit hard today. Everyone is panic buying sausages and cheese. This is a Wurst Käse scenario.

[Lowbankclaret]

Fair enough re Scotland but FACTS based on GUESSING? C'mon now.

So when I used closed cases, which is FACTUAL data.
When using total cases divided by deaths which again is FACTUAL data.

The arguement was always used that there could be , should be, maybe hundreds, thousands, millions out there we don’t know about. Hence you wanted to use guessing?

When I use a experts report that speculates (guesses) on death rates that our Government uses to force rules on us. You want to use facts.


You appear to only want to use data you want to that fits your argument.

[Erasmus]

Interesting point made today, I think by one of the medical officers in the UK, that he thinks that the actual number of cases in this country is probably around 50,000. As we have only 2,000 confirmed that would mean that the actual figure is 25 times higher than the confirmed cases.

If we apply that to Italy, which has 28,000 confirmed that would give an actual figure of 700,000. This in turn would explain the very high number of deaths there. It may be that Italy has been more thoroughgoing with its testing procedure, but if not these figures shed a lot of new light on the progression of the virus and the mortality rate.

[Spijed]

Interesting point made today, I think by one of the medical officers in the UK, that he thinks that the actual number of cases in this country is probably around 50,000. As we have only 2,000 confirmed that would mean that the actual figure is 25 times higher than the confirmed cases.

If we apply that to Italy, which has 28,000 confirmed that would give an actual figure of 700,000. This in turn would explain the very high number of deaths there. It may be that Italy has been more thoroughgoing with its testing procedure, but if not these figures shed a lot of new light on the progression of the virus and the mortality rate.

You'd expect a slowdown in the coming days if we are no longer going into pubs, bars, sporting events etc.

[thatdberight]

Supermarkets in Germany are being hit hard today. Everyone is panic buying sausages and cheese. This is a Wurst Käse scenario.

Not just Germany, it's hit Greece too. Humus and Taramasalata sales down. A double-dip recession.

[thatdberight]

Hiding from it? Then why are many of them working 18 hour days. Don't talk ****.

Still no idea what you meant by this response... probably not important.

[rob63]

People,
It has become increasingly apparent of the last 48 hours we need to pause normal society.

Normal rules cannot apply now.

Businesses need to be put on effective hold.
Everything except essential companies need to be almost put into mothballs to be re opened once this crisis is over.

If we don’t there will economic catastrophe.

Most businesses would not survive.

How we do that I don’t know, but it is what we need to do.

Hmmm, who decides what is an essential company Lowbank?

The supply chain is essential, everybody recognises that, but what about the people who supply the supply chain?

It's ok having vehicles to supply goods for example but who maintains those vehicles? Who supplies the parts to the people who maintain those vehicles?

It's not an easy question & probably one the Government are hoping to avoid for as long as they can.

[NottsClaret]

You'd expect a slowdown in the coming days if we are no longer going into pubs, bars, sporting events etc.

Yup, the top boffin has said we'll see a reduction in infection in the next 2-3 weeks. It'll keep swinging up and down then for the next year, but at least it will give everyone a bit of confidence we can at least control it to an extent.

[CombatClaret]

The UK is eligible to take part in a European Union wide-scheme on buying ventilators and other medical equipment needed in the coronavirus crisis.

[dsr]

People,
It has become increasingly apparent of the last 48 hours we need to pause normal society.

Normal rules cannot apply now.

Businesses need to be put on effective hold.
Everything except essential companies need to be almost put into mothballs to be re opened once this crisis is over.

If we don’t there will economic catastrophe.

Most businesses would not survive.

How we do that I don’t know, but it is what we need to do.

I doubt you can boost the economy by putting millions out of work. It's certainly better for the individual if they can work and get a wage, rather than living off social security - especially since (if the workers aren't earning) there is little tax available to pay that social security.

[Lowbankclaret]

Hmmm, who decides what is an essential company Lowbank?

The supply chain is essential, everybody recognises that, but what about the people who supply the supply chain?

It's ok having vehicles to supply goods for example but who maintains those vehicles? Who supplies the parts to the people who maintain those vehicles?

It's not an easy question & probably one the Government are hoping to avoid for as long as they can.

Macron in France has said no French company will go bust on his watch.

Trump has just announced wide ranging measures, including sending every American a check for $1000

These are extremely extraordinary times , needing extraordinary measures.

Other countries see that, we need to see it and act.

[martin_p]

You'd expect a slowdown in the coming days if we are no longer going into pubs, bars, sporting events etc.

Think that’s a very big ‘if’!

[Lowbankclaret]

Fair enough re Scotland but FACTS based on GUESSING? C'mon now.

UK numbers just announced at 16 deaths.

[Goalposts]

people as young as 45 dying now,,,there was a underlying health issue

the best we can hope far now is to try to suppress the virus, will lead to a very different UK in the coming months

[Spijed]

Think that’s a very big ‘if’!

If social isolation works in other countries then you'd expect it to work here.

If bars and pubs are shut where are people in this country going to gather in an evening?

Along with every theatre, cinema, bingo hall closed down.

[Bfcboyo]

I get the feeling schools may be about to close. Watching live now and braced for more madness.

[Lowbankclaret]

I doubt you can boost the economy by putting millions out of work. It's certainly better for the individual if they can work and get a wage, rather than living off social security - especially since (if the workers aren't earning) there is little tax available to pay that social security.

Maybe I am not making my point clear.
80% of companies are not going to be generating income, we need to keep them in business.

ALL of them.

If the gov does not do what the rest of the world is doing, our society will suffer.

[martin_p]

If social isolation works in other countries then you'd expect it to work here.

If bars and pubs are shut where are people in this country going to gather in an evening?

Along with every theatre, cinema, bingo hall closed down.

Pubs and restaurants in the main haven’t closed though. I’m on a group on Facebook where people ask for recommendations to eat locally. The volume of requests has gone down but it’s far from stopped. Plus I can see a local school from my house and there were a few hundred parents there an hour and a half ago because it hasn’t been told to close. The government has given people the option, seems a lot are choosing to ignore.

[Spijed]

The government has given people the option, seems a lot are choosing to ignore.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51925295
Which will be remedied very quickly (in a matter of days) if the cases rise too sharply.

[Goalposts]

we should only support businesses that are sustainable, not those that would have gone bust anyway. ie laura ashley
all businesses should be looked at from a perspective of there ebitda / balance sheet and the cost of the people skills , inmportance to UK infrastructure etc.

there will have to be some very hard calls, every business will not be save able, i know three businesses that would go under in the next 2 months, regardless of the current circumstance. they are unsustainable, it would be madness to support them for them to go bust when this virus passes

e

[rob63]

This is doing the rounds on Facebook... https://streamable.com/kz9yl

Very funny Frank, but I was expecting a version of Reasons to be Cheerful Part3 when he started with "Why don't you get back into bed"

[Lowbankclaret]

Knew that this had to come.

UK will do whatever it takes.

It needs to do this as I said it would.

[If it be your will]

Okay. forget it.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Money being thrown at business understandably.

Just hope people don’t try and take advantage for their own gain.

[Spiral]

Ideology has flipped on its head. Can't let the logic of the market determine the fate of business in this climate, and ensuring solvency is essential. It's notable that Rishi Sunak is making a effort to brace folks for more intervention. This was unimaginable a few weeks ago. No prediction made right now could be considered too bold, I think. Academics have warned about the potential for the collapse of money for decades. This is the kind of precipice that throws politics out of the window, and not a single resource should be spared in preventing the system from tumbling over it.

[SalouClaret]

This drug could make the difference between 50,000 deaths and 1,000,000 deaths in the UK.

[Spijed]

Nobody seems interested, but on the off chance anybody is, the case in favour of chloroquine is quickly becoming overwhelming. If the UK is not mass producing this drug as we speak (I can't find any evidence for this), and rapidly beginning trials of it, it would be profoundly negligent. It costs less than a quid a box to make. This drug could make the difference between 50,000 deaths and 1,000,000 deaths in the UK.

totally agree. It's cheap, and can't make the situation worse.

[CombatClaret]

Another FU to the self employed and renters

[paulatky]

You'd expect a slowdown in the coming days if we are no longer going into pubs, bars, sporting events etc.

Would expect it to take 2-3 weeks to see an inpact

[paulatky]

Maybe I am not making my point clear.
80% of companies are not going to be generating income, we need to keep them in business.

ALL of them.

If the gov does not do what the rest of the world is doing, our society will suffer.

What do you think the gov is not doing that the rest of the world is doing

[Spijed]

Would expect it to take 2-3 weeks to see an inpact

The thing is, with treatments looking very promising we only need to delay the situation long enough for them to be more widely available.

[Gordaleman]

Macron in France has said no French company will go bust on his watch.

Trump has just announced wide ranging measures, including sending every American a check for $1000

These are extremely extraordinary times , needing extraordinary measures.

Other countries see that, we need to see it and act.

I suggested a few days ago that cash handouts might well be a possibility, but that was so that people would go out and help businesses. Not sure that would work now we're being asked to stay home.

It could still happen though.

[thatdberight]

If social isolation works in other countries then you'd expect it to work here.

If bars and pubs are shut where are people in this country going to gather in an evening?

Along with every theatre, cinema, bingo hall closed down.

Do they have to gather? Frankly (and it will come as no surprise I'm sure) other people are the most annoying irritant I can imagine.

[Gordaleman]

£330 Billion sounds like a lot of money but as usual most of it is being fed out through the Bank of England and other banks. Even then, 95% of what has been announced is in the form of loans that have to be paid back with interest. Just when they need help, let's push them into more debt eh? Unless I totally misheard the Chancellor, even companies as big as British Airways will only be offerred £5 million. That won't last them nore than a few hours. Not that BA deserve help with their attitude to customers.)

Meanwhile, zero hours contract workers, the self employed and the gig economy have been offered nothing.

[Spijed]

One thing that does need spelling out to those with the attitude of "If I get it, then so be it, I don't care", is what happens if you need to be placed on a ventilator.

Let me tell you my experience.

In December 2014 I was diagnosed with an Ischemic bowel. Basically means it's dead and the dead tissue needs to be removed fairly quickly otherwise you'll die. And even though they did that I was put on a ventilator for 19 days, basically in a medically induced coma. They only do it to critically ill patients and there is still no guarantee of survival.

So anyone who thinks that if they catch the virus it won't be a problem, it will if you are thinking about an older relative who's fighting for their life.

[Lowbankclaret]

What do you think the gov is not doing that the rest of the world is doing

I have suggested for many weeks.
Look at South Korea and Taiwan, find out why they are being successful.

Jeremy Hunt has just been on the news saying exactly what I said weeks ago.

Day 1 of this thread I said with a couple of others this was serious, mocked by many.

I explained the flattening of the curve a week before gov started going on about it and said their strategy was flawed.

It’s now evident it was.

I said the strategy of reduced testing was wrong, it was and now they are going to try to play catch up.

I said they would need to bail out all businesses, they have just done so.


None of this was rocket science, it was all there in the data.

[Zlatan]

Careful Lowbankclaret, you don’t want to do yourself an injury patting yourself on the back eh...

I can’t reiterate enough as to why your claims have been inaccurate and misleading and I’m not going to go over it again.

I do have a question or 2 for you though.

What do you think the lessons learned will be from this for the government? And what do you think The lessons learned should be from this for the government?

[Gordaleman]

Encouraging news I suppose. As I said last night, Italian cases seem to be peaking, so hopefully, if the lockdown continues for another week or so, the virus will have very few people to infect and will hopefully largely die out.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

[Lowbankclaret]

Careful Lowbankclaret, you don’t want to do yourself an injury patting yourself on the back eh...

I can’t reiterate enough as to why your claims have been inaccurate and misleading and I’m not going to go over it again.

I do have a question or 2 for you though.

What do you think the lessons learned will be from this for the government? And what do you think The lessons learned should be from this for the government?

You can go back and copy the posts, they are there.

What can we learn??

At work we have a lesson learnt log. Past mistakes are logged and what we did to correct it.

Guess what no one reads it and the amount of times I point people to it who are making the same stupid mistakes again is far to often.

We also do risk assessments, they log all the risks and no one does f uk all about them.


So in summary, we could do a lesson learnt log, do a risk assessment of what might happen in a future pandemic. No one would actually do anything.

[RingoMcCartney]

Coronavirus: Europe plans full border closure in virus battle - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51918596


Germany announces border posts controls
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-51905129

The EU announces external border controls
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/m ... y-at-noon/


And the Schengen zone suspended!
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what- ... control_en

[ClaretAndJew]

Coronavirus: Europe plans full border closure in virus battle - BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51918596


Germany announces border posts controls
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-51905129

The EU announces external border controls
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/m ... y-at-noon/


And the Schengen zone suspended!
https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what- ... control_en

Racist.