But they'll never let on.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:10 pmSARS, it’s not going to kill as many percentage wise.
But those who think it’s just flu are likely to be surprised when it kills them
Covid-19
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Re: Covid-19
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Re: Covid-19
Yes you and paulatky have come in for some abuse...more so than the resident infecting thisThread and other threds.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:08 pmThank you,
You with real life experience have just said what we have been trying to get across.
Your efforts are appreciated and Thank you
Last edited by tim_noone on Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Covid-19
For the umpteenth time iam not saying its like flu, life would be so much easier on here if and when you understand thatLowbankclaret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:10 pmSARS, it’s not going to kill as many percentage wise.
But those who think it’s just flu are likely to be surprised when it kills them
My memory fails me, how's is SARS passed on?
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Re: Covid-19
In the end it is difficult.
Covid 19 shares 95% of it dna with SARS. So it’s similar.
To give that perspective.
Orangutans and chimps share around 97.5% of our dna.
They haven’t climbed out the trees, but we have been to the moon, on a 2.5% difference on dna.
Let’s hope it does not mutate and become 2.5% more dangerous.
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Re: Covid-19
I was with you till you mentioned the moon....fraud!Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:17 pmIn the end it is difficult.
Covid 19 shares 95% of it dna with SARS. So it’s similar.
To give that perspective.
Orangutans and chimps share around 97.5% of our dna.
They haven’t climbed out the trees, but we have been to the moon, on a 2.5% difference on dna.
Let’s hope it does not mutate and become 2.5% more dangerous.
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Re: Covid-19
Oh no FFS,
I am a little sceptical they went to the moon in a baked bean tin.
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Re: Covid-19
To be honest I have since the start of the thread I understood where you were coming from regarding the flu and covid in terms of numbers etc but from the beginning it seemed that you were being blasé about covid, in that even though you were in the at risk group you made statements about it not affecting your way of life in that you would be on the turf, going to the pub and snooker with your mates. I can understand at the beginning you we’re trying to be optimistic but others who had seen the effects of the virus in China, Iran and Italy saw this as you being blinkered.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:00 pmLet me try to make myself clear about my views on Flu and Covid 19. First though, I just want to say that there is a massive misunderstanding about Flu in this country. You hear of so many people who have a bit of a cold, or even a bad cold, say they have been off work for a few days with Flu. That breeds the impression that Flu, isn't that bad. That's wrong. If you have Flu, and I've been unfortunate enough to have had it twice in my 72 years, then you aren't off for a few days, you are off for weeks. It's a serious disease.
Now for the differences between Flu and Covid 19.
Flu seems to attack all people in much the same way, and of course, if those people are old or infirm, it often results in their deaths.
Covid 19, as we are being told, makes some people a lot sicker than others. (e.g. why does it seem to leave most children untouched? Flu certainly doesn't.) Indeed, lots of people seem to get Covid 19 and either don't know about it at all and are totally asymptomatic, or only have mild symptoms. This could be very significant.
It means, that although a lot of people who get Covid 19 might really struggle, a lot more will have few or no problems with it. That doesn't happen with Flu.
The goverment has already said that they suspect at least 50 to 75,000 people and probably a lot more may have or have had the virus. That means that it might sweep through the country quickly but with less casualties than some are expecting.
I hope I'm right, being firmly in the 'At risk' group.
No doubt, the usual suspects will try to tear this attempt at analysis apart but then I wouldn't expect anything else.
I really hope that you are right about numbers but from someone who saw his Dad die of pneumonia and that is with a ventilator I dread to think of the consequences of this disease if it’s allowed to spread if there is a shortage of ventilators and why we have to all do as the medical experts have advised us.
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Re: Covid-19
Keep misquoting me and keep purposefully misunderstanding and keep giving yourself a pat on the back.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:34 pmYou were given data amongst many other links etc.
I argued the data showed it was really serious and you still stand by your arguments even after it’s gone way way worse than
those who argued it was serious thought it would.
It’s gone way beyond Paulasky and I said it would.
But your still arguing flu is worse.
I’ve never said flu is worse, I’ve never said this is not serious.
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Re: Covid-19
Regardless of what others may have said on here, I don't think I ever said that Covid 19 wasn't serious. All I've ever really done is try to compare to Flu in terms of deaths. Clearly, we've all learned a lot more about this virus in more recent times but the one thing that has been clear almost from the start that it affects different people in very different ways, and that may help us all to get through this.Dy1geo wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:27 pmTo be honest I have since the start of the thread I understood where you were coming from regarding the flu and covid in terms of numbers etc but from the beginning it seemed that you were being blasé about covid, in that even though you were in the at risk group you made statements about it not affecting your way of life in that you would be on the turf, going to the pub and snooker with your mates. I can understand at the beginning you we’re trying to be optimistic but others who had seen the effects of the virus in China, Iran and Italy saw this as you being blinkered.
I really hope that you are right about numbers but from someone who saw his Dad die of pneumonia and that is with a ventilator I dread to think of the consequences of this disease if it’s allowed to spread if there is a shortage of ventilators and why we have to all do as the medical experts have advised us.
As for the going on the Turf and playing snooker, I was trying to follow government advice and also do my bit to quell panic.
Not too sure on the clinical stuff with regard to pnumonia and flu, but I suspect that it's pnumonia that eventually kills most Flu and Covid 19 patients.
I'm sure your experience with your Dad wasn't pleasant and I feel for you.
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Re: Covid-19
You're also guilty of it, Saint Lowbank.......
Last edited by RingoMcCartney on Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Covid-19
That's reassuring I've had the jab for pneumonia..Gordaleman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:38 pmRegardless of what others may have said on here, I don't think I ever said that Covid 19 wasn't serious. All I've ever really done is try to compare to Flu in terms of deaths. Clearly, we've all learned a lot more about this virus in more recent times but the one thing that has been clear almost from the start that it affects different people in very different ways, and that may help us all to get through this.
As for the going on the Turf and playing snooker, I was trying to follow government advice and also do my bit to quell panic.
Not too sure on the clinical stuff with regard to pnumonia and flu, but I suspect that it's pnumonia that eventually kills most Flu and Covid 19 patients.
I'm sure your experience with your Dad wasn't pleasant and I feel for you.
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Re: Covid-19
SARS actually mutated and became less dangerous.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:17 pmIn the end it is difficult.
Covid 19 shares 95% of it dna with SARS. So it’s similar.
To give that perspective.
Orangutans and chimps share around 97.5% of our dna.
They haven’t climbed out the trees, but we have been to the moon, on a 2.5% difference on dna.
Let’s hope it does not mutate and become 2.5% more dangerous.
Some suggestion that has happened in Covid-19 in Singapore where it has shed some of its genetic structure. We live in hope.
From memory of what I read a few days ago a part of the human body causes the “stick” on Covid-19 to break in two and reveal a “spike” which attaches to one of the proteins we possess. The original SARS operated slightly differently and was hard to transmit. This one is both easy to transmit to other humans (arguably suspiciously easy) and dangerous - therefore unique, so far, as viruses go, probably since the Black Death.
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Re: Covid-19
And they are still trying to defend their position even when they were so wildly wrong.
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Re: Covid-19
Nearly all viruses which mutate actually become less dangerous as they get used to a host. This was spoken about in the science press conference held by the Government yesterday lunchtime
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Re: Covid-19
I was trying to demonstrate that in genetic terms a 5% difference is a Hugh difference.CrosspoolClarets wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:56 pmSARS actually mutated and became less dangerous.
Some suggestion that has happened in Covid-19 in Singapore where it has shed some of its genetic structure. We live in hope.
From memory of what I read a few days ago a part of the human body causes the “stick” on Covid-19 to break in two and reveal a “spike” which attaches to one of the proteins we possess. The original SARS operated slightly differently and was hard to transmit. This one is both easy to transmit to other humans (arguably suspiciously easy) and dangerous - therefore unique, so far, as viruses go, probably since the Black Death.
May be it didn’t work.
Re: Covid-19
Tim, are you including 2M deaths in that “being right” list, or Chinese burning bodies; or Chinese manufactured the virus; or numerous other spouts of rubbish I can attribute to those 2?
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Re: Covid-19
When this blows over I wonder if any of us lot cout it?
1ST mon t die should get a place in utc history.
1ST mon t die should get a place in utc history.
Re: Covid-19
Indeed, if a virus is “too deadly” it will destroy its chances of survival.damo_whitehead wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:00 pmNearly all viruses which mutate actually become less dangerous as they get used to a host. This was spoken about in the science press conference held by the Government yesterday lunchtime
Re: Covid-19
Six officers from my team are off with symptoms, and we’re already under strength. Other teams have lost similar amounts of officers if not more.
I’d say over half the calls I’ve been to today are corona virus related, or members of the public are suffering symptoms.
There are lots of sudden deaths coming out over the radio for elderly people who have passed away at home, having self isolated having symptoms.
There is no PPE for officers, and at the moment we’re completely unprotected, and dropping like flies.
From the snap shot I’ve seen here in SE London, this is huge already, and we’re barely into it.
I’d say over half the calls I’ve been to today are corona virus related, or members of the public are suffering symptoms.
There are lots of sudden deaths coming out over the radio for elderly people who have passed away at home, having self isolated having symptoms.
There is no PPE for officers, and at the moment we’re completely unprotected, and dropping like flies.
From the snap shot I’ve seen here in SE London, this is huge already, and we’re barely into it.
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Re: Covid-19
Oh dear...you said it would get messy. Stay safe lad!TsarBomba wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:22 pmSix officers from my team are off with symptoms, and we’re already under strength. Other teams have lost similar amounts of officers if not more.
I’d say over half the calls I’ve been to today are corona virus related, or members of the public are suffering symptoms.
There are lots of sudden deaths coming out over the radio for elderly people who have passed away at home, having self isolated having symptoms.
There is no PPE for officers, and at the moment we’re completely unprotected, and dropping like flies.
From the snap shot I’ve seen here in SE London, this is huge already, and we’re barely into it.
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Re: Covid-19
Just the covid 19 zlatan that's the topic.looks like tsarbomb as in at the deep end he will know best.
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Re: Covid-19
Been working for a midwife this week and I told her the same. I've lost count of the number of people who've said they have the upmost respect for people like your good self.
Very much appreciated and admired. Thank you.
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Re: Covid-19
Cheers, we’ve all got our part to play, even if it’s just being strict with our self isolation.RingoMcCartney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:56 pmBeen working for a midwife this week and I told her the same. I've lost count of the number of people who've said they have the upmost respect for people like your good self.
Very much appreciated and admired. Thank you.
The nurses and doctors working in the critical care units are absolute hero’s.
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Re: Covid-19
Anyone seen this?
Looks like the government is buying time with the social distancing measures, delaying and limiting the peak until late Autumn. Not sure if the tide will be turned in 12 weeks.
Looks like the government is buying time with the social distancing measures, delaying and limiting the peak until late Autumn. Not sure if the tide will be turned in 12 weeks.
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Re: Covid-19
My daughter works in a hospital with children on the mental health side of things. She's been told her case load will be suspended. She'll tidy up some loose ends of of admin , then she's being moved , after some training, onto a ward, where she'll be helping out the best she can with very basic tasks to help the doctors and nurses.
She's in a low risk group age wise, with, thankfully , no health issues that we are aware of. It doesn't stop me fretting for her well being.
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Re: Covid-19
They need to buy time because we only have one fifth of the ICU beds that Germany has according to Channel Four News tonight.HieronymousBoschHobs wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:19 pmAnyone seen this?
042E4D61-0F74-4E66-9D75-4BA90C8DB8F2.jpeg
Looks like the government is buying time with the social distancing measures, delaying and limiting the peak until late Autumn. Not sure if the tide will be turned in 12 weeks.
The NHS has been sytematically run down for ten years under the Tories and now we're paying the price.
"Safe in our hands?" Yeh, right.
Re: Covid-19
Now isn’t the time for point scoring politicsGordaleman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:23 pmThey need to buy time because we only have one fifth of the ICU beds that Germany has according to Channel Four News tonight.
The NHS has been sytematically run down for ten years under the Tories and now we're paying the price.
"Safe in our hands?" Yeh, right.
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Re: Covid-19
Maybe not, but it doesn't make it any less true. One fifth the ICU beds of Germany says it all.
Last edited by Gordaleman on Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Covid-19
We’re in a bad situation. Looking at the evidence used in the decision making, it does seem like the government probably chose the wrong strategy initially. Hence the open letter from mathematicians and computer scientists questioning the models used by the government before the weekend. Imperial has obviously sent the government its research to raise the alarm and that’s caused a shift in policy. That does look like a balls up insofar it seems as though the evidence was out there and the government did not act as quickly as it could. That may be why we’ve introduced more stringent measures later than other countries with similar infection levels. I imagine there will be a procedural review at the end of this so that all involved can improve how they respond to crises like this. Fortunately, it does seem like we are now taking the right measures, but there will still be incredible pain in the NHS and that will largely be due to capacity issues. It goes without saying that were the NHS in a better position, it would be in a better place to handle the onslaught.
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Re: Covid-19
Quite simply, Boris knew we didn't have anywhere near the capacity we would need, because of ten years of cuts, so opted for the stretch it out policy.HieronymousBoschHobs wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:38 pmWe’re in a bad situation. Looking at the evidence used in the decision making, it does seem like the government probably chose the wrong strategy initially. Hence the open letter from mathematicians and computer scientists questioning the models used by the government before the weekend. Imperial has obviously sent the government its research to raise the alarm and that’s caused a shift in policy. That does look like a balls up insofar it seems as though the evidence was out there and the government did not act as quickly as it could. That may be why we’ve introduced more stringent measures later than other countries with similar infection levels. I imagine there will be a procedural review at the end of this so that all involved can improve how they respond to crises like this. Fortunately, it does seem like we are now taking the right measures, but there will still be incredible pain in the NHS and that will largely be due to capacity issues. It goes without saying that were the NHS in a better position, it would be in a better place to handle the onslaught.
Now I think he's finally accepted he got it wrong. We'll see.
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Re: Covid-19
As sure as day follows night and vice versa, more garbage from everybody's favourite fact-free poster.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... uk-problem
"The UK has 3.5 beds per 100,000 people, which is at the bottom end of the scale for developed countries. Germany has 24.6 per 100,000"
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... uk-problem
"The UK has 3.5 beds per 100,000 people, which is at the bottom end of the scale for developed countries. Germany has 24.6 per 100,000"
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Re: Covid-19
Currently listening to ‘The Farm’ - All together now
We need to get that mentality, political party alliance has nothing to do with this now
We need to get that mentality, political party alliance has nothing to do with this now
Re: Covid-19
One thing I have discovered this evening is that the finest alchemy of 27 herbs and spices certainly do have a fantastic medicinal effect.
I’m just about to order another few bottles to make sure I have enough to take me through this madness. Perhaps the folk of East Lancs knew something the rest of the world didn’t know and perhaps it saved a few from Spanish Flu way back when.
Have a good evening one and all, and be well
I’m just about to order another few bottles to make sure I have enough to take me through this madness. Perhaps the folk of East Lancs knew something the rest of the world didn’t know and perhaps it saved a few from Spanish Flu way back when.
Have a good evening one and all, and be well
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Re: Covid-19
I thought (correct me if I'm wrong) that it was ICL who came back with revisions to their own modelling which caused the quite quick ratcheting of action. Which isn't to negate or dispute your other point but I don't think this was ever a political decision which became a scientific one. That's certainly how, for example, this reads;HieronymousBoschHobs wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:38 pmWe’re in a bad situation. Looking at the evidence used in the decision making, it does seem like the government probably chose the wrong strategy initially. Hence the open letter from mathematicians and computer scientists questioning the models used by the government before the weekend. Imperial has obviously sent the government its research to raise the alarm and that’s caused a shift in policy. That does look like a balls up insofar it seems as though the evidence was out there and the government did not act as quickly as it could. That may be why we’ve introduced more stringent measures later than other countries with similar infection levels. I imagine there will be a procedural review at the end of this so that all involved can improve how they respond to crises like this. Fortunately, it does seem like we are now taking the right measures, but there will still be incredible pain in the NHS and that will largely be due to capacity issues. It goes without saying that were the NHS in a better position, it would be in a better place to handle the onslaught.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 08071.html
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Re: Covid-19
And this is precisely why people should start heeding the warnings,and follow the social distancing advice,a couple of the younger girls in my work were making plans to go clubbing tonight,but failing that they will arrange to visit their friends,they think all this is overblown,and when one of them read that these measures might last for up to a year,she immediately stated there's no way she'll not socialise during this period,it's great that all the social spaces have now been closed,but my worry is that youngsters will find alternatives,probably house parties,they don't seem to realise why they need to socially distance.damo_whitehead wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:27 pmNorthwick Park Hospital has declared a "critical incident", already at capacity for critical care. Well that came sooner than expected, scary
Equally our work is advising staff that our attendance isn't required next week,and we'll still be paid,despite this some staff are insisting on going in,why?.
Re: Covid-19
I will not be buying this one though...!
1912 DOM Benedictine presented in a wooden box with four accessories 1 x 700ml https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B071YHXLT3/ ... DEbNY86BRB
1912 DOM Benedictine presented in a wooden box with four accessories 1 x 700ml https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B071YHXLT3/ ... DEbNY86BRB
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Re: Covid-19
So it's even worse than I thought? Maybe you should tell Channel Four News about their mistake, instead of criticising people who are doing their best to inform. I didn't say it was a FACT. I said it was according to Channel Four News, who are usually pretty good.thatdberight wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:47 pmAs sure as day follows night and vice versa, more garbage from everybody's favourite fact-free poster.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... uk-problem
"The UK has 3.5 beds per 100,000 people, which is at the bottom end of the scale for developed countries. Germany has 24.6 per 100,000"
Last edited by Gordaleman on Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Covid-19
Yep. Even worse than you thought. Germany with 7 (Seven!) times as many critical care beds.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:54 pmSo it's even worse than I thought? Maybe you should tell Channel Four News about their mistake, instead of criticising people who are doing their best to put facts across.
... in 2010.
The discrepancy is real. It's the knee-jerk attribution of responsibility that's pathetic.
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Re: Covid-19
I quoted the times...regards football being played behind closed doors.i was wrong in my observation.you were quick to Call me a Bullsh!tter I was also criticised....by your good self. I was only doing my best.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:54 pmSo it's even worse than I thought? Maybe you should tell Channel Four News about their mistake, instead of criticising people who are doing their best to put facts across.
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Re: Covid-19
So says the guy who's always right about everything, except when you're not.thatdberight wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:56 pmYep. Even worse than you thought. Germany with 7 (Seven!) times as many critical care beds.
... in 2010.
The discrepancy is real. It's the knee-jerk attribution of responsibility that's pathetic.
Extract:
"But, according to figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the UK has just 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people, compared with Germany's 29.2, Italy's 12.5 and France's 9.7."
And those are up to date figures, whatever you think of aljazeera. Definitely nearer 5 than 7.
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opini ... 47678.html
Last edited by Gordaleman on Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Covid-19
So sorry to hear that mate. Stay safe!TsarBomba wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:22 pmSix officers from my team are off with symptoms, and we’re already under strength. Other teams have lost similar amounts of officers if not more.
I’d say over half the calls I’ve been to today are corona virus related, or members of the public are suffering symptoms.
There are lots of sudden deaths coming out over the radio for elderly people who have passed away at home, having self isolated having symptoms.
There is no PPE for officers, and at the moment we’re completely unprotected, and dropping like flies.
From the snap shot I’ve seen here in SE London, this is huge already, and we’re barely into it.
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Re: Covid-19
Science will prevail.
Sooner or later, there will be a solution to this.
Mankind (or personkind to be PC) have survived worse with a lot less knowledge and resources than we have now around the globe.
(Probably)
Sooner or later, there will be a solution to this.
Mankind (or personkind to be PC) have survived worse with a lot less knowledge and resources than we have now around the globe.
(Probably)
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Re: Covid-19
Grow up you silly silly old man.Gordaleman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:02 pmSo says the guy who's always right about everything, except when you're not.
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Re: Covid-19
Yes I think that’s probably right (re: ICL). I suspect the mitigation and suppression strategies were probably two plausible options provided to government by their advisory teams. They initially chose the first and then changed tack when it was realised mitigation was going to have unacceptable consequences.thatdberight wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:51 pmI thought (correct me if I'm wrong) that it was ICL who came back with revisions to their own modelling which caused the quite quick ratcheting of action. Which isn't to negate or dispute your other point but I don't think this was ever a political decision which became a scientific one. That's certainly how, for example, this reads;
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 08071.html
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Re: Covid-19
So says the guy who's always right about everything, except when you're not.
Extract:
"But, according to figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the UK has just 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people, compared with Germany's 29.2, Italy's 12.5 and France's 9.7."
And those are up to date figures, whatever you think of aljazeera. Definitely nearer 5 than 7.
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opini ... 47678.html
Maybe Channel Four News was right after all and your figure was wrong? Will you admit it though?
Extract:
"But, according to figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the UK has just 6.6 ICU beds per 100,000 people, compared with Germany's 29.2, Italy's 12.5 and France's 9.7."
And those are up to date figures, whatever you think of aljazeera. Definitely nearer 5 than 7.
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opini ... 47678.html
Maybe Channel Four News was right after all and your figure was wrong? Will you admit it though?
Last edited by Gordaleman on Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.