Covid-19

[Gordaleman]

The natural world has decided to kick some people whilst they are already down.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51995861

[joey13]

No, but if it's like just about every other known virus, it's extremely unlikely.

This not like every other known virus though

[joey13]

Hindsight, fantastic isn’t it. Being glib isn’t.

Hindsight, or just plain common sense

[Tall Paul]

This not like every other known virus though

Why not?

[joey13]

Why not?

Here are six differences between coronavirus and the flu:

— Coronavirus appears to spread more slowly than the flu. This is probably the biggest difference between the two. The flu has a shorter incubation period (the time it takes for an infected person to show symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (or the time between successive cases). Coronavirus’s serial interval is around five to six days, while flu’s gap between cases is more like three days, the WHO says. So flu still spreads more quickly.

— Shedding: Viral shedding is what happens when a virus has infected a host, has reproduced, and is now being released into the environment. It is what makes a patient infectious. Some people start shedding the coronavirus within two days of contracting it, and before they show symptoms, although this probably isn’t the main way it is spreading, the WHO says. (However, one non-peer-reviewed article this week also suggests that coronavirus patients are shedding huge amounts of the virus in these early stages, when they have either no symptoms or just mild ones.) The flu virus typically sheds in the first two days after symptoms start, and this can last for up to a week. But a study in the Lancet this week, which looked at patients in China, showed that survivors were still shedding the coronavirus for around 20 days (or until death). One was still shedding at 37 days, while the shortest time detected was eight days. This suggests coronavirus patients remain contagious for much longer than those with flu.

— Secondary infections. As if contracting coronavirus wasn’t bad enough, it leads to about two more secondary infections on average. The flu can sometimes cause a secondary infection, usually pneumonia, but it’s rare for a flu patient to get two infections after the flu. The WHO warned that context is key (someone who contracts coronavirus might already have been fighting another condition, for example).

— Don’t blame snotty kids—adults are passing coronavirus around. While kids are the primary culprits for flu transmission, this coronavirus seems to be passed between adults. That also means adults are getting hit hardest—especially those who are older and have underlying medical conditions. Experts are baffled as to why kids seem protected from the worst effects of the coronavirus, according to the Washington Post. Some say they might already have some immunity from other versions of the coronavirus that appear in the common cold; another theory is that kids’ immune systems are always on high alert and might simply be faster than adults’ in battling Covid-19.

— Coronavirus is far deadlier than the flu. Thus far, the mortality rate for coronavirus (the number of reported cases divided by the number of deaths) is around 3% to 4%, although it’s likely to be lower because many cases have not yet been reported. The flu’s rate is 0.1%.

— There is no cure or vaccine for the coronavirus. Not yet, anyway, although work is under way. There is, however, a flu vaccine—and everyone should get it, not least because being vaccinated could help lessen the load on overstretched medical services in the coming weeks.

[Tall Paul]

So it's not the same as the flu. That doesn't mean it's not like any other virus. There seem to be many similarities, so there's no reason to think that people can get it more than once.

[ksrclaret]

This not like every other known virus though

Apart from the fact it's 'new', it is very similar to all the other viruses, and even more similar to other single stranded RNA viruses.

That's why it's been classified as a virus, and we've not had to come with another domain of life like we did with archaea.

The problem is developing vaccines and anti-virals takes time. It may be more deadly than the flu, but there are plenty of other viruses who are far more deadly.

[joey13]

So it's not the same as the flu. That doesn't mean it's not like any other virus. There seem to be many similarities, so there's no reason to think that people can get it more than once.

But no one knows , plus there’s the possibility it could mutate

[dsr]

Here are six differences between coronavirus and the flu:

— Coronavirus appears to spread more slowly than the flu. This is probably the biggest difference between the two. The flu has a shorter incubation period (the time it takes for an infected person to show symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (or the time between successive cases). Coronavirus’s serial interval is around five to six days, while flu’s gap between cases is more like three days, the WHO says. So flu still spreads more quickly.

— Shedding: Viral shedding is what happens when a virus has infected a host, has reproduced, and is now being released into the environment. It is what makes a patient infectious. Some people start shedding the coronavirus within two days of contracting it, and before they show symptoms, although this probably isn’t the main way it is spreading, the WHO says. (However, one non-peer-reviewed article this week also suggests that coronavirus patients are shedding huge amounts of the virus in these early stages, when they have either no symptoms or just mild ones.) The flu virus typically sheds in the first two days after symptoms start, and this can last for up to a week. But a study in the Lancet this week, which looked at patients in China, showed that survivors were still shedding the coronavirus for around 20 days (or until death). One was still shedding at 37 days, while the shortest time detected was eight days. This suggests coronavirus patients remain contagious for much longer than those with flu.

— Secondary infections. As if contracting coronavirus wasn’t bad enough, it leads to about two more secondary infections on average. The flu can sometimes cause a secondary infection, usually pneumonia, but it’s rare for a flu patient to get two infections after the flu. The WHO warned that context is key (someone who contracts coronavirus might already have been fighting another condition, for example).

— Don’t blame snotty kids—adults are passing coronavirus around. While kids are the primary culprits for flu transmission, this coronavirus seems to be passed between adults. That also means adults are getting hit hardest—especially those who are older and have underlying medical conditions. Experts are baffled as to why kids seem protected from the worst effects of the coronavirus, according to the Washington Post. Some say they might already have some immunity from other versions of the coronavirus that appear in the common cold; another theory is that kids’ immune systems are always on high alert and might simply be faster than adults’ in battling Covid-19.

— Coronavirus is far deadlier than the flu. Thus far, the mortality rate for coronavirus (the number of reported cases divided by the number of deaths) is around 3% to 4%, although it’s likely to be lower because many cases have not yet been reported. The flu’s rate is 0.1%.

— There is no cure or vaccine for the coronavirus. Not yet, anyway, although work is under way. There is, however, a flu vaccine—and everyone should get it, not least because being vaccinated could help lessen the load on overstretched medical services in the coming weeks.

None of those make coronavirus inherently different from other viruses, though.

- they both spread, but at different rates.
- they both shed, but at different rates.
- they both cause secondary infections, but at different rates.
- they are both passed person to person, but on balance different age groups do it more or less effectively.
- they both cause death, but at different rates.
- neither of them have a cure, but we know more about and can do more about the one we have known for longest.

All your points are good and accurate, but they aren't reasons why humans can't produce antibodies against this like we can against other viruses. There is a near cetainty that we can produce normal antibodies and will become immune.

[dsr]

— Coronavirus is far deadlier than the flu. Thus far, the mortality rate for coronavirus (the number of reported cases divided by the number of deaths) is around 3% to 4%, although it’s likely to be lower because many cases have not yet been reported. The flu’s rate is 0.1%.

This isn't comparing like with like. The coronavirus death rate, however calculated, is using statistics based on counting everyone who dies with coronavirus as a coronavirus victim. The flu statistic counts only those who had no other cause of death.

Total death from flu each year in England, including all everyone where flu is on the death certificate as either a primary or a secondary cause, is about 30,000. If the death rate was 0.1%, that would mean that there were 30,000,000 cases each year in England. There aren't; the total number, although very difficult to find, is certainly much less. Like for like, flu's death rate is probably about 1% - but if anyone can find stats for estimated total cases of flu per year, I would be interested.

[joey13]

None of those make coronavirus inherently different from other viruses, though.

- they both spread, but at different rates.
- they both shed, but at different rates.
- they both cause secondary infections, but at different rates.
- they are both passed person to person, but on balance different age groups do it more or less effectively.
- they both cause death, but at different rates.
- neither of them have a cure, but we know more about and can do more about the one we have known for longest.

All your points are good and accurate, but they aren't reasons why humans can't produce antibodies against this like we can against other viruses. There is a near cetainty that we can produce normal antibodies and will become immune.

Hopefully we can DSR

[thatdberight]

This isn't comparing like with like. The coronavirus death rate, however calculated, is using statistics based on counting everyone who dies with coronavirus as a coronavirus victim. The flu statistic counts only those who had no other cause of death.

Total death from flu each year in England, including all everyone where flu is on the death certificate as either a primary or a secondary cause, is about 30,000. If the death rate was 0.1%, that would mean that there were 30,000,000 cases each year in England. There aren't; the total number, although very difficult to find, is certainly much less. Like for like, flu's death rate is probably about 1% - but if anyone can find stats for estimated total cases of flu per year, I would be interested.

I'll do some really ropey numbers....

CDC reckons 30million flu cases in USA.
Pro rata (why not) that's 7million here
Deaths per Chris Whitty 8k
Roughly 0.1%

[Gordaleman]

This not like every other known virus though

Oh? In what way is it different?

[dsr]

I'll do some really ropey numbers....

CDC reckons 30million flu cases in USA.
Pro rata (why not) that's 7million here
Deaths per Chris Whitty 8k
Roughly 0.1%

Chris Whitty's figure is deaths where flu is the primary or only cause. There are a lot more deaths where flu is the secondary cause. More than 20% of UK deaths have either flu or pneumonia on the death certificate; as far as I can see from the news so far, most of the coronavirus deaths will have other causes on the death certificates too.

Using 7 million as the base flu rate, we'd be about 0.5% death rate for flu.

[Lowbankclaret]

Other half just nipped the Tesco Padiham. Much less people in but stocks still low or empty for lots of things. Plenty fresh veg.

She got me 3 bottles of beer, cannot believe I just sprayed them with disinfectant before putting them in the fridge.

How times are changing.

[tim_noone]

Other half just nipped the Tesco Padiham. Much less people in but stocks still low or empty for lots of things. Plenty fresh veg.

She got me 3 bottles of beer, cannot believe I just sprayed them with disinfectant before putting them in the fridge.

How times are changing.

#me 2

[thatdberight]

Chris Whitty's figure is deaths where flu is the primary or only cause. There are a lot more deaths where flu is the secondary cause. More than 20% of UK deaths have either flu or pneumonia on the death certificate; as far as I can see from the news so far, most of the coronavirus deaths will have other causes on the death certificates too.

Using 7 million as the base flu rate, we'd be about 0.5% death rate for flu.

Source for the 20%?

[tiger76]

Just another brief anecdote was travelling on the bus to work earlier,and we passed a couple hand-in-hand walking along without a care in the world,100 yards along the road passed yet another couple doing precisely the same,now either they're dim our they don't now how long (6ft) is,the mind boggles,it really does.

Sadly further deaths announced in Northern Ireland,Scotland and Wales today.I suspect that death toll will rise when the English figures are added,

The number of deaths related to the coronavirus outbreak rises to 244 - but the latest figures for England are yet to be published
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says people should avoid seeing relatives in person and warns the NHS could be "overwhelmed" by coronavirus patients
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tells pubs and bars that continue to trade that she will use emergency powers activated this week to force them to close
Letters are being sent to 1.5 million people in England most at risk of coronavirus, urging them to stay home
The military will help organise food deliveries for those told to stay at home for an extended period(this might apply to some posters on here)

Why pubs and bars are still trading IDK,and why on earth anybody would want to enter a licensed premises ATM baffles me.

And some info for the soap fans(i know there's a lot of Corrie devotees).

Production of TV soaps Coronation Street and Emmerdale will be suspended on Monday, ITV has announced.

The UK broadcaster said enough episodes have been recorded to see both soaps through until "at least the early summer".

But it said it had now made the decision to halt production to protect the health and well-being of staff.

A reduced transmission schedule for both soaps will begin on 30 March.

Dire news from around Europe as well.

Spain registered its worst figures yet after almost 400 people died in a single day. It brought the national total there to 1,720 making it one of the worst-hit countries in the world.

The Netherlands, Greece, France and Germany all reported a surge in the number of deaths and cases. Romania reported its first death from the virus.

You'd think this news would finally wake up a lot of joe public from their complacency,but given that people are still wandering the countryside,and not heeding the social distancing measures,i wouldn't bank on it.

[FactualFrank]

Just another brief anecdote was travelling on the bus to work earlier,and we passed a couple hand-in-hand walking along without a care in the world,100 yards along the road passed yet another couple doing precisely the same,now either they're dim our they don't now how long (6ft) is,the mind boggles,it really does.

Sadly further deaths announced in Northern Ireland,Scotland and Wales today.I suspect that death toll will rise when the English figures are added,

The number of deaths related to the coronavirus outbreak rises to 244 - but the latest figures for England are yet to be published
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says people should avoid seeing relatives in person and warns the NHS could be "overwhelmed" by coronavirus patients
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tells pubs and bars that continue to trade that she will use emergency powers activated this week to force them to close
Letters are being sent to 1.5 million people in England most at risk of coronavirus, urging them to stay home
The military will help organise food deliveries for those told to stay at home for an extended period(this might apply to some posters on here)

Why pubs and bars are still trading IDK,and why on earth anybody would want to enter a licensed premises ATM baffles me.

And some info for the soap fans(i know there's a lot of Corrie devotees).

Production of TV soaps Coronation Street and Emmerdale will be suspended on Monday, ITV has announced.

The UK broadcaster said enough episodes have been recorded to see both soaps through until "at least the early summer".

But it said it had now made the decision to halt production to protect the health and well-being of staff.

A reduced transmission schedule for both soaps will begin on 30 March.

Dire news from around Europe as well.

Spain registered its worst figures yet after almost 400 people died in a single day. It brought the national total there to 1,720 making it one of the worst-hit countries in the world.

The Netherlands, Greece, France and Germany all reported a surge in the number of deaths and cases. Romania reported its first death from the virus.

You'd think this news would finally wake up a lot of joe public from their complacency,but given that people are still wandering the countryside,and not heeding the social distancing measures,i wouldn't bank on it.

Unfortunately, I think some people will only take notice, when someone close to them has died.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Unfortunately, I think some people will only take notice, when someone close to them has died.

Unfortunately judging by the pictures from mass gatherings at beaches, supermarkets etc today I think you are right. Amazing the human race has survived for so long!

[thatdberight]

Just another brief anecdote was travelling on the bus to work earlier,and we passed a couple hand-in-hand walking along without a care in the world,100 yards along the road passed yet another couple doing precisely the same,now either they're dim our they don't now how long (6ft) is,the mind boggles,it really does.

Are you social distancing from your other half?

[TheFamilyCat]

Other half just nipped the Tesco Padiham. Much less people in but stocks still low or empty for lots of things. Plenty fresh veg.

She got me 3 bottles of beer, cannot believe I just sprayed them with disinfectant before putting them in the fridge.

How times are changing.

For someone who has been adopting the "worst case" position I'm surprised you've allowed your wife to ignore social distancing

[TheFamilyCat]

Just another brief anecdote was travelling on the bus to work earlier,and we passed a couple hand-in-hand walking along without a care in the world,100 yards along the road passed yet another couple doing precisely the same,now either they're dim our they don't now how long (6ft) is,the mind boggles,it really does.

Sadly further deaths announced in Northern Ireland,Scotland and Wales today.I suspect that death toll will rise when the English figures are added,

The number of deaths related to the coronavirus outbreak rises to 244 - but the latest figures for England are yet to be published
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says people should avoid seeing relatives in person and warns the NHS could be "overwhelmed" by coronavirus patients
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tells pubs and bars that continue to trade that she will use emergency powers activated this week to force them to close
Letters are being sent to 1.5 million people in England most at risk of coronavirus, urging them to stay home
The military will help organise food deliveries for those told to stay at home for an extended period(this might apply to some posters on here)

Why pubs and bars are still trading IDK,and why on earth anybody would want to enter a licensed premises ATM baffles me.

And some info for the soap fans(i know there's a lot of Corrie devotees).

Production of TV soaps Coronation Street and Emmerdale will be suspended on Monday, ITV has announced.

The UK broadcaster said enough episodes have been recorded to see both soaps through until "at least the early summer".

But it said it had now made the decision to halt production to protect the health and well-being of staff.

A reduced transmission schedule for both soaps will begin on 30 March.

Dire news from around Europe as well.

Spain registered its worst figures yet after almost 400 people died in a single day. It brought the national total there to 1,720 making it one of the worst-hit countries in the world.

The Netherlands, Greece, France and Germany all reported a surge in the number of deaths and cases. Romania reported its first death from the virus.

You'd think this news would finally wake up a lot of joe public from their complacency,but given that people are still wandering the countryside,and not heeding the social distancing measures,i wouldn't bank on it.

You seem very quick to have a pop at what everyone else is doing from your lofty position on the, erm, bus. Top deck presumably?

[Grumps]

Other half just nipped the Tesco Padiham. Much less people in but stocks still low or empty for lots of things. Plenty fresh veg.

She got me 3 bottles of beer, cannot believe I just sprayed them with disinfectant before putting them in the fridge.

How times are changing.

Have you also sprayed everything your wife has touched?

[Gerry Hattrick]

Have you also sprayed everything your wife has touched?

And more importantly, her

[CombatClaret]

Just another brief anecdote was travelling on the bus to work earlier,and we passed a couple hand-in-hand walking along without a care in the world,100 yards along the road passed yet another couple doing precisely the same,now either they're dim our they don't now how long (6ft) is,the mind boggles,it really does.

You'll be telling me they share the same bathroom next!

[thatdberight]

You'll be telling me they share the same bathroom next!

Perhaps tiger76 doesn't have to worry about having a partner.

[Elizabeth]

I'm encouraged by the increasing number of posts that demonstrate to me that more of us are starting to treat this virus more seriously.

At last!

I also sense that there has been a bigger shift towards thinking about others despite the events since Friday.

I was worried on Friday that the media were starting to attack young people without giving them a right of reply.
This media attack has had to shift over the weekend as families and older people retreated to the parks and UK holiday and leisure destinations. Without any thought of 'social isolation' and 'social distancing'

If we are to defeat this virus we must work hard at understanding what these terms mean. And I mean really understand! This is where I think the country needs to up its performance because too many people don't get it.

Please don't complain when we are issued with face masks, have to stand on marked footprints and have armed forces present in our shopping areas and streets.

The country doesn't want to do this but it may have to, whether we like it or not!

[quoonbeatz]

Another appalling press conference from Johnson. He's seriously just said it's ok for people to still go out.

This is the most out of his depth, irresponsible prime minister we've ever had, right at the worst time.

[Lowbankclaret]

For someone who has been adopting the "worst case" position I'm surprised you've allowed your wife to ignore social distancing

As far as is possible , she did do.
Hand gel before shopping, use it to disinfect the trolley handles.
Disinfectant used on items before being put away.

Then wash and change clothes.

Not sure you can do much more when shopping.

[Lowbankclaret]

Have you also sprayed everything your wife has touched?

If it’s in a packet or a container, yes.

[tim_noone]

You seem very quick to have a pop at what everyone else is doing from your lofty position on the, erm, bus. Top deck presumably?

[taio]

Another appalling press conference from Johnson. He's seriously just said it's ok for people to still go out.

This is the most out of his depth, irresponsible prime minister we've ever had, right at the worst time.

What did he say? Only managed to see a bit, but he was making it clear further draconian measures would be taken if the public didn't follow the strong advice being given to them.

[Elizabeth]

I think it's too early for all the country to stay in

[Lowbankclaret]

We have just had a call from her eldest daughter, her mother in law has been told by 111. She probably has it and if her breathing gets worse to go to hospital.
She says her chest feels like it’s in a vice. Still no tests available.

This is going to become a complete **** show.

Interestingly people still think it’s funny I am taking this very seriously. The real impact might just be sinking in in 7 days time.

[Grumps]

If it’s in a packet or a container, yes.

Doors? Handles? Car? Iam sure I could think of plenty more if I had the inclination

[Lowbankclaret]

I think it's too early for all the country to stay in

On the contrary, it’s already to late.
Look how late we are compared to China on this chart to introduce a lockdown.

B39C92B6-42BE-4BF5-82FC-72C3A953B1B0.jpeg (340.64 KiB) Viewed 3203 times

[CombatClaret]

What did he say? Only managed to see a bit, but he was making it clear further draconian measures would be taken if the public didn't follow the strong advice being given to them.

Banging on about the enjoyment of parks and playgrounds etc.
Trouble is people then think, well if it's ok to pop down the park then its ok to pop down the beach or down to Jim's house. If even a minority think this social distancing goes out the window.

He won't even outline the measures he would take for fear of being unpopular, just vaguely references other countries.

[thatdberight]

... I am taking this very seriously..

This is not news.

[Grumps]

We have just had a call from her eldest daughter, her mother in law has been told by 111. She probably has it and if her breathing gets worse to go to hospital.
She says her chest feels like it’s in a vice. Still no tests available.

This is going to become a complete **** show.

Interestingly people still think it’s funny I am taking this very seriously. The real impact might just be sinking in in 7 days time.

There is probably a higher chance she hasn't got it, especially if those are the only symptoms, either way hope she's OK

[CombatClaret]

"I will have to consider tougher measures... I don't want to but it's something we will have to consider"...
Wow tough talk that will deter people.

He's knocked up plenty of women but he's clearly never been a parent. Tell the children the toys you will take away.

[Grumps]

Another appalling press conference from Johnson. He's seriously just said it's ok for people to still go out.

This is the most out of his depth, irresponsible prime minister we've ever had, right at the worst time.

I've been out today, walk in the fresh air, didn't come within 6ft of anyone else so won't have been a risk to me or anyone else, however those going to the supermarket for beer etc are a different matter. Yes you can go out, but be sensible, trouble is people Carnt make decisions on their own, they seem to have to have someone to tell them what they can and Carnt do.... Make your own decisions!!

[taio]

Banging on about the enjoyment of parks and playgrounds etc.
Trouble is people then think, well if it's ok to pop down the park then its ok to pop down the beach or down to Jim's house. If even a minority think this social distancing goes out the window.

He won't even outline the measures he would take for fear of being unpopular, just vaguely references other countries.

I think people are absolutely clear what social distancing means but some choose to ignore it at the moment. There's absolutely nothing wrong with people going out for a walk. A medic on tele today was not only saying it was acceptable but actually recommended it in trying to find a right balance in terms of spread, people's mental wellbeing and getting the timing right.

[Elizabeth]

The sooner more testing becomes available the better.

While worrying, there has been no evidence yet that I have read that contradicts the belief that people over 70 and/or people with underlying problems are the ones at serious risk of dying.

[quoonbeatz]

What did he say? Only managed to see a bit, but he was making it clear further draconian measures would be taken if the public didn't follow the strong advice being given to them.

He said it's ok for people to go out, amongst other waffle about enjoying parks.

The point is that we're nearly a week in and thousands are still ignoring him. The draconian measures should already be in place. All these people are putting themselves and the rest of us at risk. The advice and guidance needs to stop and action needs taking.

[taio]

He said it's ok for people to go out, amongst other waffle.

I went out today for a walk on my own. it was ok.

Just be honest and say that no matter what he says he can do no right in your eyes because you dislike him.

[Gordaleman]

He said it's ok for people to go out, amongst other waffle.

The guy is a complete knob and way out of his depth.

[CombatClaret]

Just be honest and say that no matter what he says he can do no right in your eyes because you dislike him.

I've liked lot's of things he's said, he's just said them about 3 weeks too late.

[quoonbeatz]

I went out today for a walk on my own. it was ok.

Just be honest and say that no matter what he says he can do no right in your eyes because you dislike him.

Honestly, grow up. This isn't a time for political ********.

[taio]

Honestly, grow up. This isn't a time for political ********.

That's exactly what you're doing