Covid-19

[thatdberight]

You need to read the 'hardware shops' thread to see what Jakub considers to be "living this way". It will probably explain why he could cope with it.

I just disagree with someone who finds their own existence so important they'd rather everybody "indefinitely" scrat around looking for moss to eat than we accept that sad things happen and the remaining 99% get on with things normally.

I certainly don't think that highly of myself as an individual, let alone everyone else.

[Lowbankclaret]

Thanks for the advice and attempt to help, but there is seriously nothing at all around here. I can’t create any accounts for any of the shops, all blocked - only Sainsbury’s are meant to be able to help, but they also refuse to allow me to create an account - that was after 4 hours on hold and speaking to various people. Apparently I’m meant to wait for them to contact me when they have my details from the government - I’ve been locked down for 2 weeks now, and have 11 to go - with limited supplies. It is frustrating, and I’m going to have to “break the law” and go out and get some supplies myself unless it is forthcoming.

Where do you live was the question?

If you are local there are ways and means to get some food to you.

So please let us know if your near Burnley?

[mdd2]

The stats so far are not looking good for those severely affected. In UK thus far about half put on ventilators don't make it. I think the Chinese published 3 papers with even more grim results of something like 60, 80 and 90% deaths

[Zlatan]

Whereabouts are you?

Bedfordshire

[thatdberight]

Bedfordshire

Hopefully we have others on here. Shopping is not easy but possible. You will get preferential treatment - straight in - if you make yourself known to the staff if it's anything like what I saw today.

[Zlatan]

Hopefully we have others on here. Shopping is not easy but possible. You will get preferential treatment - straight in - if you make yourself known to the staff if it's anything like what I saw today.

That’s the point though. I’m not meant to leave the house. At all. I do have colleagues locally who have offered to assist should it be necessary, but they are limited in what they can do.

The point is that there is meant to be a priority system in place for people like me, but I cannot seem to access it.

I do have an update though, other local people in the group are being processed and have accounts now, but they’re all over 70 - I don’t have a problem with that, but why can’t anyone tell me that’s what’s happening - doing those over 70 first? It does make sense, but I don’t know what would be so difficult in telling me yesterday when I was asking on the support line...

[Lowbankclaret]

That's fine. I wouldn't.

It's "only" half a million deaths estimated in the UK if let run its natural course. And, yes, I'm well aware I or my loved ones could be in that. This is not an existential threat.

Firstly , are you not watching what’s going on in Italy and Spain?? And they are on lockdown , not letting it run it’s course.

Second it depends on the models being run on the number of deaths.

If you look at the current worldwide closed case death rate of 17% with a 60% infection rate you lose 6.77 million people in the uk.

China’s data which is almost complete with few active cases left at 4% still with a 60% infection rate you lose 1.6 million people.


Using your preferred 1% of population calculation you lose 664,000 people.

I think the run it’s natural course idea would result in between the China number and the worldwide number as many many people would have to be left to die as there is no way we would have the ventilators to treat people .

There are plenty of stories in the press of young people dying , one where a 33 year old daughter died the day after her father.

There is nothing to say your children would not die, how would your grand children cope with no grand parents and no parents.???

As you say your willing to roll those dice!!

[KateR]

That’s the point though. I’m not meant to leave the house. At all. I do have colleagues locally who have offered to assist should it be necessary, but they are limited in what they can do.

The point is that there is meant to be a priority system in place for people like me, but I cannot seem to access it.

I do have an update though, other local people in the group are being processed and have accounts now, but they’re all over 70 - I don’t have a problem with that, but why can’t anyone tell me that’s what’s happening - doing those over 70 first? It does make sense, but I don’t know what would be so difficult in telling me yesterday when I was asking on the support line...

Hope you get sorted and soon, please do keep us up to date on where you are in this mess.

[CombatClaret]

Bedfordshire

Search Facebook & Twitter for support groups, they're popping up everywhere but unless they drop a letter through your door you'll have to seek them out.
#KeepingBedsSafe #Bedfordshire #StayAtHomeAndStaySafe

There's a brand new army of volunteers out there ready to help.

bedford.jpg (632.13 KiB) Viewed 2615 times

[thatdberight]

That’s the point though. I’m not meant to leave the house. At all. I do have colleagues locally who have offered to assist should it be necessary, but they are limited in what they can do.

The point is that there is meant to be a priority system in place for people like me, but I cannot seem to access it.

I do have an update though, other local people in the group are being processed and have accounts now, but they’re all over 70 - I don’t have a problem with that, but why can’t anyone tell me that’s what’s happening - doing those over 70 first? It does make sense, but I don’t know what would be so difficult in telling me yesterday when I was asking on the support line...

Lots of organisations have been slow to get things right. Much more trivial for me but the response of various organisations has been unnecessarily shambolic. Others have been understandably shambolic - but some have just proven themselves rubbish. And of course, if people who are fit and well weren't overreacting and hiding and using all the delivery slits, that would help too.

[Grumps]

What a crazy statement to make .

When are going to grasp the seriousness of the situation.

Overseas holidays are a long way off.

I am gobsmacked by some of the things you say and sometimes think you have here just on a wind up mission.

If it is a wind up then as you can see you have hooked me

If I was to respond, this thread would end up getting locked like the others, but to keep it that way, Paul, please leave any opinions you have of me to yourself in future. Thanks.

[KateR]

The link provides some other thoughts on what the Gov. have to listen to regarding advice and make judgment calls, some calls prove to be wrong and they adjust accordingly, sorry if the link has been provided before.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... -predicts/

[thatdberight]

Firstly , are you not watching what’s going on in Italy and Spain?? And they are on lockdown , not letting it run it’s course.

Second it depends on the models being run on the number of deaths.

If you look at the current worldwide closed case death rate of 17% with a 60% infection rate you lose 6.77 million people in the uk.

China’s data which is almost complete with few active cases left at 4% still with a 60% infection rate you lose 1.6 million people.


Using your preferred 1% of population calculation you lose 664,000 people.

I think the run it’s natural course idea would result in between the China number and the worldwide number as many many people would have to be left to die as there is no way we would have the ventilators to treat people .

There are plenty of stories in the press of young people dying , one where a 33 year old daughter died the day after her father.

There is nothing to say your children would not die, how would your grand children cope with no grand parents and no parents.???

As you say your willing to roll those dice!!

Sorry. You're genuinely too stupid to talk to. So, don't take unnecessary offence when I don't respond in future.

Where you post erroneous and dangerous information, I'll still point it out. But it's not a debate.

[Spijed]

The stats so far are not looking good for those severely affected. In UK thus far about half put on ventilators don't make it. I think the Chinese published 3 papers with even more grim results of something like 60, 80 and 90% deaths

What many don't realise is that a ventilator is the term for a life support machine with people in what's known as a 'medically induced coma'.

Generally, I'd be surprised if over half make it in normal times anyway, so the figures might be fairly standard in terms of survival rates.

Patients don't tend to be in ICU unless they are critically ill anyway.

[Lowbankclaret]

Bedfordshire

Buggar, that means most of us cannot help.

Sorry

[Jakubclaret]

Firstly , are you not watching what’s going on in Italy and Spain?? And they are on lockdown , not letting it run it’s course.

Second it depends on the models being run on the number of deaths.

If you look at the current worldwide closed case death rate of 17% with a 60% infection rate you lose 6.77 million people in the uk.

China’s data which is almost complete with few active cases left at 4% still with a 60% infection rate you lose 1.6 million people.


Using your preferred 1% of population calculation you lose 664,000 people.

I think the run it’s natural course idea would result in between the China number and the worldwide number as many many people would have to be left to die as there is no way we would have the ventilators to treat people .

There are plenty of stories in the press of young people dying , one where a 33 year old daughter died the day after her father.

There is nothing to say your children would not die, how would your grand children cope with no grand parents and no parents.???

As you say your willing to roll those dice!!

That’s what I’ve been trying to get across, they’d be mass anarchy & not to mention the skilled professional people on the front you would lose. That course of action we are not geared up for yet, we’ve got the time now to control it & later reassess if the lockdowns can be eased or more restrictive measures needed as gove has warned.

[paulatky]

Hi Paul, I think it's a reasonable question to ask, how will different economies come out of the situation we are all in. The UK will suffer a dip, it may well be a big dip. Germany, I'd hazard a guess will be the same. Spain, which was already a weaker economy is very reliant on tourist trade - I think we saw a little of this when Thomas Cook went bust last summer and Spanish hotel etc used by TCook took a hit.

So, yes, we won't be rushing off for summer holidays this year. How's that going to impact on Spanish economy (and similar) that needs the tourist spend to re-start their economy?

I think the world ( with the exception of China ) economies will be destroyed for many years to come. Unemployment rates of 25% here and in USA will cause unheard of social problems. House prices will crash and many pension schemes will be significantly underfunded and peoples pensions at a level they expected under threat

[paulatky]

That’s what I’ve been trying to get across, they’d be mass anarchy & not to mention the skilled professional people on the front you would lose. That course of action we are not geared up for yet, we’ve got the time now to control it & later reassess if the lockdowns can be eased or more restrictive measures needed as gove has warned.

What is certain footy wont be restarting any time soon

[Lowbankclaret]

What many don't realise is that a ventilator is the term for a life support machine with people in what's known as a 'medically induced coma'.

Generally, I'd be surprised if over half make it in normal times anyway, so the figures might be fairly standard in terms of survival rates.

Patients don't tend to be in ICU unless they are critically ill anyway.

Agreed, Spijed.

If you have seen Coumo presenting on New York, he says the issue here is normally people need ventilating for 3-4 days to outcome, that being death or recovery.
He says experience is showing Covid patients need up to 20 days on ventilators to outcome, Hence he needs 30,000 of them to treat just the population of New York.

[Jakubclaret]

What is certain footy wont be restarting any time soon

I’d scrap it, it wouldn’t be a popular idea I realise that especially in Liverpool, for this season I’d write it off & just start again. Some will benefit Norwich others wouldn’t, don’t really want to digress away from Covid-19 on this thread.

[FactualFrank]

I’d scrap it, it wouldn’t be a popular idea I realise that especially in Liverpool, for this season I’d write it off & just start again. Some will benefit Norwich others wouldn’t, don’t really want to digress away from Covid-19 on this thread.

I read somewhere that 14 out of 20 clubs need to favour it, for the season to be scrapped.

[Lowbankclaret]

What is certain footy wont be restarting any time soon

I am going to do a prediction here. Football will start again in November / December this year.

[Lowbankclaret]

I think the world ( with the exception of China ) economies will be destroyed for many years to come. Unemployment rates of 25% here and in USA will cause unheard of social problems. House prices will crash and many pension schemes will be significantly underfunded and peoples pensions at a level they expected under threat

I posted a link yesterday to a conspiracy theory about China. Even without a conspiracy theory it’s a fact China could could sweep up loads of European companies for significantly less than their real value in the coming months.

I don’t think house prices will crash, yes go down but not crash.

Pension schemes plan over a longer term than this blip, but it will be used to shut more final salary schemes.

For people in final salary schemes, Transfer values have actually gone up as interest rates and bond rates have gone down.

I currently have a mountain of paperwork to fill in to move my pensions to drawdown which I am doing as the CETV’s are currently the highest they have ever been.

[KateR]

Sorry. You're genuinely too stupid to talk to. So, don't take unnecessary offence when I don't respond in future.

Where you post erroneous and dangerous information, I'll still point it out. But it's not a debate.

It is supposed to be a debate and sharing of info that many of us find or have access to, why call people stupid when they have different opinions, it's simply that they don't agree with you, is that how you rationalize this?

China:
Rapid lockdowns employed to manage the outbreak before ramping up testing and response capabilities.

ITALY:
Despite enforcement of national lockdown, cases are continuing to rise. Low testing rates among non-critical cases in select regions maybe allowing the virus to spread in undiagnosed clusters. Imposed strict regional and national lockdown early; testing per capita is `4x most peer EU countries with some regional testing nearly full population.

South Korea:
Aggressive testing, contact tracing and surveillance plus mandatory quarantine are helping isolate virus clusters and dramatically slow the spread of outbreak in Daegu.

Singapore:
Basically same but more of what S Korea does; NOTE Singapore is unique in its approach as they worked hard to be ready for this after SARS outbreak and due to size and location other countries will not be able to manage as successfully.

Western Countries are largely instituting the "Early China" model focused on immediate containment while ramping up testing

USA:
Accelerating transmission and recent scale up in testing have seen dramatic rise in cases at a rate higher than Italy. Social distancing measures are being rolled out primarily at the state and local level.

In terms of recovery and economical forecasts in terms of return to Pre-Crisis Quarter:
China - 2021 Q2
USA - 2023 Q1
Eurozone - 2023 Q3
World - 2022 Q3

Those forecasts are really thought provoking and should be weighed against those talking about holidays in Spain this summer and being back to "normal".

For the UK and EU add the trade deals and outcomes in to this sorry mix.

We have a long way to go, the extended lockdowns in various places should give some real indication to what 2020 is going to be all about in terms with the virus, beyond will be about recovery and stimulus.

Surely we should all be in this together, differing thoughts are a good thing, no one has got this right or wrong because no one knows what's going to happen, will it be seasonal or not will also be a factor, does warmer weather really kill it or not? Lot more questions than answers yet.

[KateR]

I’d scrap it, it wouldn’t be a popular idea I realise that especially in Liverpool, for this season I’d write it off & just start again. Some will benefit Norwich others wouldn’t, don’t really want to digress away from Covid-19 on this thread.

When it starts again you could start with several play off, top six but add points to what they already have, bottom 6 (example) same. several who could possibly get to 6/7/8 places same. Bottom of top six play off, one off game against the ones below now who could possible get in to those places. Straight in to new season after that but scrap cup (s)

Starting at November will depend of course on the virus, is it seasonal or not for example.

I hope they don't scrap the season to date and come up with some fair way to make it happen but think there is a good chance they will.

[Grumps]

It is supposed to be a debate and sharing of info that many of us find or have access to, why call people stupid when they have different opinions, it's simply that they don't agree with you, is that how you rationalize this?

China:
Rapid lockdowns employed to manage the outbreak before ramping up testing and response capabilities.

ITALY:
Despite enforcement of national lockdown, cases are continuing to rise. Low testing rates among non-critical cases in select regions maybe allowing the virus to spread in undiagnosed clusters. Imposed strict regional and national lockdown early; testing per capita is `4x most peer EU countries with some regional testing nearly full population.

South Korea:
Aggressive testing, contact tracing and surveillance plus mandatory quarantine are helping isolate virus clusters and dramatically slow the spread of outbreak in Daegu.

Singapore:
Basically same but more of what S Korea does; NOTE Singapore is unique in its approach as they worked hard to be ready for this after SARS outbreak and due to size and location other countries will not be able to manage as successfully.

Western Countries are largely instituting the "Early China" model focused on immediate containment while ramping up testing

USA:
Accelerating transmission and recent scale up in testing have seen dramatic rise in cases at a rate higher than Italy. Social distancing measures are being rolled out primarily at the state and local level.

In terms of recovery and economical forecasts in terms of return to Pre-Crisis Quarter:
China - 2021 Q2
USA - 2023 Q1
Eurozone - 2023 Q3
World - 2022 Q3

Those forecasts are really thought provoking and should be weighed against those talking about holidays in Spain this summer and being back to "normal".

For the UK and EU add the trade deals and outcomes in to this sorry mix.

We have a long way to go, the extended lockdowns in various places should give some real indication to what 2020 is going to be all about in terms with the virus, beyond will be about recovery and stimulus.

Surely we should all be in this together, differing thoughts are a good thing, no one has got this right or wrong because no one knows what's going to happen, will it be seasonal or not will also be a factor, does warmer weather really kill it or not? Lot more questions than answers yet.

I think Spain and Italy are quite warm, so I doubt the warm weather theory will work
As I said in a previous reply, the getting back to normal quotes were made by government officials. They all talk about flattening the curve, which allows the NHS to cope better, once the curve starts its downward trend they will look at getting back to normality, their words, not mine

[Lowbankclaret]

Sorry. You're genuinely too stupid to talk to. So, don't take unnecessary offence when I don't respond in future.

Where you post erroneous and dangerous information, I'll still point it out. But it's not a debate.

So what your saying is your the font of all knowledge and only your posts are correct and factual.

You do know when you resort to personal name calling, you have lost your argument or you cannot construct one.

[Quicknick]

Spain and Italy are not warm yet. Wait until they heat up.

[Grumps]

Spain and Italy are not warm yet. Wait until they heat up.

Tenerife, which has had several deaths, and counts towards spains figures has had 4 months of temps in high 20s low 30s, certainly hotter than we'll get in summer, so if it hasn't been killed off there, it certainly won't be here.

[Lowbankclaret]

It is supposed to be a debate and sharing of info that many of us find or have access to, why call people stupid when they have different opinions, it's simply that they don't agree with you, is that how you rationalize this?

China:
Rapid lockdowns employed to manage the outbreak before ramping up testing and response capabilities.

ITALY:
Despite enforcement of national lockdown, cases are continuing to rise. Low testing rates among non-critical cases in select regions maybe allowing the virus to spread in undiagnosed clusters. Imposed strict regional and national lockdown early; testing per capita is `4x most peer EU countries with some regional testing nearly full population.

South Korea:
Aggressive testing, contact tracing and surveillance plus mandatory quarantine are helping isolate virus clusters and dramatically slow the spread of outbreak in Daegu.

Singapore:
Basically same but more of what S Korea does; NOTE Singapore is unique in its approach as they worked hard to be ready for this after SARS outbreak and due to size and location other countries will not be able to manage as successfully.

Western Countries are largely instituting the "Early China" model focused on immediate containment while ramping up testing

USA:
Accelerating transmission and recent scale up in testing have seen dramatic rise in cases at a rate higher than Italy. Social distancing measures are being rolled out primarily at the state and local level.

In terms of recovery and economical forecasts in terms of return to Pre-Crisis Quarter:
China - 2021 Q2
USA - 2023 Q1
Eurozone - 2023 Q3
World - 2022 Q3

Those forecasts are really thought provoking and should be weighed against those talking about holidays in Spain this summer and being back to "normal".

For the UK and EU add the trade deals and outcomes in to this sorry mix.

We have a long way to go, the extended lockdowns in various places should give some real indication to what 2020 is going to be all about in terms with the virus, beyond will be about recovery and stimulus.

Surely we should all be in this together, differing thoughts are a good thing, no one has got this right or wrong because no one knows what's going to happen, will it be seasonal or not will also be a factor, does warmer weather really kill it or not? Lot more questions than answers yet.

I think that’s a good summary.

Taiwan is another interesting country, 27 million. They were impacted badly by SARS. Therefore they had an action plan and stocks of supplies to implement it.
Interestingly they implemented mandatory mask wearing in public.
Temperature checks and hand sanitizer when you entered virtually any establishment. Both us and them had 40 ish cases on the same day.

We have now 19,500 cases.
Taiwan has 298.

On the surface those actions they took appear to work very well. Problem is we don’t have 66 million masks in stock so we could all wear one.

[KateR]

I think Spain and Italy are quite warm, so I doubt the warm weather theory will work
As I said in a previous reply, the getting back to normal quotes were made by government officials. They all talk about flattening the curve, which allows the NHS to cope better, once the curve starts its downward trend they will look at getting back to normality, their words, not mine

Grumps,
I understand totally and was not trying to have a dig at all, just trying to look at facts as they unfold, from what I read in regard to weather it was encouraging but stressed that nothing had been proven yet and forecasts were made of how similar virus worked with some of the work three years old. Humidity also has a factor so not just temperature, it discussed monsoons and how that will affect the outcome even with typically high temperatures, they were discussing breakdown above 27C I believe. However we used to live in the Philippines for awhile plus visiting all over SE Asia, Philippines changes daily by no more than 2C any day of the year on the main Island, yet there is a rainy season and humidity for most of the year, they are being hit hard and I feel Italy and Spain have not been at those temperature levels yet. I get a fairly regular update from people we know there, they are also very scared but the poverty and low healthcare services will also add in to there worries and results.

I feel all politicians are trying to make statements to encourage the respective populations, such as Trumps, "I'd like this to be over by Easter" I'm not sure why, as there is no chance of that happening in my mind but maybe when we look at the continued lockdowns being extended. It is a form of encouragement in the, it's only two weeks you can do this, bite sized chunks sound a lot more appealing than saying, ok it's 2 or 3 months.

I really really do hope normality and holidays are back by summer but I have no intention of planning for it, that way I wont be as disappointed.

[Lowbankclaret]

Tenerife, which has had several deaths, and counts towards spains figures has had 4 months of temps in high 20s low 30s, certainly hotter than we'll get in summer, so if it hasn't been killed off there, it certainly won't be here.

I think that countries like Singapore, India, South Africa etc are showing rising numbers and are hot countries. It’s certainly looking like sunshine ain’t getting us out of this.

As aGov in America put it today.
America is going to be top of the list for a few week until India’s rates gets going.
They will then be top.

[Quicknick]

Tenerife, which has had several deaths, and counts towards spains figures has had 4 months of temps in high 20s low 30s, certainly hotter than we'll get in summer, so if it hasn't been killed off there, it certainly won't be here.

It's been the cool season in Tenerife.

[Caballo]

I think the world ( with the exception of China ) economies will be destroyed for many years to come. Unemployment rates of 25% here and in USA will cause unheard of social problems. House prices will crash and many pension schemes will be significantly underfunded and peoples pensions at a level they expected under threat

Sorry Paul, you're just making numbers up. I realise it's only opinion but what's it based on? If it's just founded on your previously displayed negative demeanor then 'bore off', if it has some actual foundation, let's see your working out!

[Lowbankclaret]

Grumps,
I understand totally and was not trying to have a dig at all, just trying to look at facts as they unfold, from what I read in regard to weather it was encouraging but stressed that nothing had been proven yet and forecasts were made of how similar virus worked with some of the work three years old. Humidity also has a factor so not just temperature, it discussed monsoons and how that will affect the outcome even with typically high temperatures, they were discussing breakdown above 27C I believe. However we used to live in the Philippines for awhile plus visiting all over SE Asia, Philippines changes daily by no more than 2C any day of the year on the main Island, yet there is a rainy season and humidity for most of the year, they are being hit hard and I feel Italy and Spain have not been at those temperature levels yet. I get a fairly regular update from people we know there, they are also very scared but the poverty and low healthcare services will also add in to there worries and results.

I feel all politicians are trying to make statements to encourage the respective populations, such as Trumps, "I'd like this to be over by Easter" I'm not sure why, as there is no chance of that happening in my mind but maybe when we look at the continued lockdowns being extended. It is a form of encouragement in the, it's only two weeks you can do this, bite sized chunks sound a lot more appealing than saying, ok it's 2 or 3 months.

I really really do hope normality and holidays are back by summer but I have no intention of planning for it, that way I wont be as disappointed.

I think the key here will be the antibody test.
Once that’s available and you can be tested , that’s the game changer.

I suggest what will happen is that if you have the test and pass (have immunity) you will get a certificate that can be used/shown to book flights for holidays etc.

You cannot be passing it on and cannot catch it hence are safe to travel again.

Just my idiotic thoughts.

[Quicknick]

Sorry Paul, you're just making numbers up. I realise it's only opinion but what's it based on? If it's just founded on your previously displayed negative demeanor then 'bore off', if it has some actual foundation, let's see your working out!

I agree. Pure guesswork on his behalf, fuelled by a love of the sensational.

[Lowbankclaret]

A 55 year old consultant has died.

Italy has lost 51 doctors in their fight against this.

And still we will see people not even trying to follow the lockdown.

So sad, RIP gent.

[KateR]

I think that’s a good summary.

Taiwan is another interesting country, 27 million. They were impacted badly by SARS. Therefore they had an action plan and stocks of supplies to implement it.
Interestingly they implemented mandatory mask wearing in public.
Temperature checks and hand sanitizer when you entered virtually any establishment. Both us and them had 40 ish cases on the same day.

We have now 19,500 cases.
Taiwan has 298.

On the surface those actions they took appear to work very well. Problem is we don’t have 66 million masks in stock so we could all wear one.

Taiwan is another Singapore, Island, had the SARS to deal with and really can not be compared with anyone except Singapore, I think it is pointless with these case to add them to the mix and use them for a comparison, it skews the data also. I think when you look at Italy, I was of the opinion in the early days of Feb that they would be hit but nothing like it is, many thought the same, so many people taking holidays there in Feb and even in to March some. Spain is the same, so you then start looking at outliners that may have had a detrimental effect, culture being a big on, which of course has to be considered and already has been discussed, add temperature/humidity plus the ones we don't know yet.

For me it is the actual tests, investigations and lockdowns of people who have been in contact with the infected in a rapid response type strategy that helps the most. Obviously we will have postmortems for years to come and the outcomes will dictate how we address this in the future but doesn't help now, we are well beyond being able to do it so we move to mass lockdowns/isolations. Just some thoughts/ramblings for today, not a real predication because something new might happen next week, next month, that changes everything.

[Grumps]

It's been the cool season in Tenerife.

No it hasn't, I've lived through it this year, some things on on here are rumour, made up etc. This isn't, as I've experienced it first hand, only returning here the day before the island shut down.
It doesn't have a cool season in any case.

[kentonclaret]

The deputy medical officer (Dr Jenny Harris) clearly let slip the timeline of "3 to 6 months, maybe even longer than 6 months" that lockdown and social distancing measures may need to be kept in place, in some form or another, before life can get back to normal. When questioned further by the next journalist she attempted to row back on it.

Several of the questions never received a proper reply. When Robert Jenrick was asked to clarify what types of tougher measures may need to be introduced further down the line, as mentioned in Boris Johnson's letter, it was answered with the usual mantra on the lectern.

[KateR]

Sorry Paul, you're just making numbers up. I realise it's only opinion but what's it based on? If it's just founded on your previously displayed negative demeanor then 'bore off', if it has some actual foundation, let's see your working out!

I do think rather than just being dismissive in this way you would be better off considering a best, worst and most probable case in regard to the effects everywhere and for everything but main two being health and economy because they are going to go hand in hand for months yet.

If you want facts just search on unemployment for any country you wish, I can tell you yesterday the US advised that the unemployment figures were the highest recorded since 1955 and it's growing daily, like the virus it will peak and the slowly come down as business tries to kick start. All this from I think January figures when the quoting the lowest for decades unemployment. I have not see the UK unemployment figures but surely you can understand and see where it is going?

I gave the recovery figures forecast by highly respected companies, not off the top of my head, those figures are being used by governments at this very time in order to plan for what is to come and I did post the link with much more previously. You are of course free to use what figures you want but since you are asking for something for foundation can you please provide something that refutes these predictions?

I also provided another link previous which had better outcomes than this but that was by a single guy who is also well respected in his field, but even his figures were not pretty, just better.

[Lowbankclaret]

Cuomo on a Sky now, interesting to see the detail he uses.

[KateR]

The deputy medical officer (Dr Jenny Harris) clearly let slip the timeline of "3 to 6 months, maybe even longer than 6 months" that lockdown and social distancing measures may need to be kept in place, in some form or another, before life can get back to normal. When questioned further by the next journalist she attempted to row back on it.

Several of the questions never received a proper reply. When Robert Jenrick was asked to clarify what types of tougher measures may need to be introduced further down the line, as mentioned in Boris Johnson's letter, it was answered with the usual mantra on the lectern.

I have provided a graph modeled on this using other viruses and real time information, this is what the travel industry is using to try and predict recovery in terms of when they can ramp up there business again, make of it what you will:

[paulatky]

I think Spain and Italy are quite warm, so I doubt the warm weather theory will work
As I said in a previous reply, the getting back to normal quotes were made by government officials. They all talk about flattening the curve, which allows the NHS to cope better, once the curve starts its downward trend they will look at getting back to normality, their words, not mine

They also said the current lockdown would be 3 weeks which you quoted on here when I said lockdown would be at least 12 weeks or more.
I have also said footy wouldnt start again until at least March 2021 at which point it might be possible to call that season 19/21.

[dsr]

If you look at the current worldwide closed case death rate of 17% with a 60% infection rate you lose 6.77 million people in the uk.

You are still making the argument that the total number of positive tests for coronavirus is the same as the total number of people with the infection. Or in other words, you are still making the argument that no-one suffers from this disease without symptoms, and that no-one who has had symptoms and recovered had coronavirus at all.

Do you have medical evidence for those claims? I can answer that for you - you don't. Those claims are nonsense. Which means your statisitcs are nonsense. You know that only the worst cases are reported - and yet you persist in extrapolating those worst case data over the population as a whole. I don't mind you knowing nothing about it yourself, but trying to frighten other people with your nonsense, claiming to be authoritative, is at best foolish. Please, just accept that you are not a professor of statistics, and you are not even a half-competent statistician (that's not an insult, there is no reason why people ought to be statisticians unless they're that way inclined), and stop peddling your nonsense numbers.

[thatdberight]

It is supposed to be a debate and sharing of info that many of us find or have access to, why call people stupid when they have different opinions, it's simply that they don't agree with you, is that how you rationalize this?

No. There are lots of opinions I disagree with on here and will argue against, quite heatedly sometimes. But they are opinions. I disagree strongly with paulatky's theory of global economic meltdown (sorry paulatky, just using that as an example). But I'm not calling him stupid.

But factual BS or using a fact that doesn't pertain to what's being talked about. That's what's stupid.

[BurnleyFC]

I reckon we should’ve gone down the “herd immunity” theory for normally healthy under 40s (of which I fall into)

It’s never going to end at this rate.

[Dy1geo]

What some people don’t realise is that if these measures are lifted too early we could see another spike so my guess it will be three months and that is why people are getting furlough etc for that length of time. After three months some restrictions may be lifted but the idea of large gatherings such as a football match seems a long way off.

It is important that we leave it up to the medical experts as only they know if the NHS can cope, already my wife’s friend has been told her next round of chemotherapy has been cancelled so imagine if there is a spike all those involved in accidents may not get treatment, more people who have heart attacks will die. Then there is the fact that more and more health care workers that will die, reducing the pool of workers.

[LeadBelly]

That’s the point though. I’m not meant to leave the house. At all. I do have colleagues locally who have offered to assist should it be necessary, but they are limited in what they can do.

The point is that there is meant to be a priority system in place for people like me, but I cannot seem to access it.

I do have an update though, other local people in the group are being processed and have accounts now, but they’re all over 70 - I don’t have a problem with that, but why can’t anyone tell me that’s what’s happening - doing those over 70 first? It does make sense, but I don’t know what would be so difficult in telling me yesterday when I was asking on the support line...

Not sure if you are aware of this but, if not... https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable
intimates that if you have not got a letter by tomorrow (identifying you as one of the 900k initial batch of "vulnerables" deduced from NHS records) you can identify yourself here.

In the official statement today (16.24 on the BBC website coverage) says

The communities secretary addresses those 1.2 million people who have been asked to stay at home for 12 weeks.
He calls on those without local support to register for help on the government's website. He says the NHS can deliver medicine, and distribution teams can deliver food - to those who request it.
He says 50,000 food parcels are being sent out this week.
He says: "I want you to know, that you are not alone - we are here to support you as long as you need us".

[paulatky]

Sorry Paul, you're just making numbers up. I realise it's only opinion but what's it based on? If it's just founded on your previously displayed negative demeanor then 'bore off', if it has some actual foundation, let's see your working out!

I think you will find I have generally been right so far.
In fact things have moved quicker and more severely than even I forecast.
Trump quoted 25% unemployment so thats not unreasonable. In fact Trump usually undercooks bad news. Here in UK we must all know a number of people laid off or been forced to take unpaid time off or face redundancy.
House prices fell by 22% in the financial crisis of 2008. It is generally agreed the upcoming recession will be far more severe so house prices will fall by maybe 30% this time.
The courts will be full for years of cases where landlords are trying to evict tenants for non payment of rent. 20-40 year olds will face years of negative equity.

Lawlessness will become a major issue. How long before there is prison riot and general unrest amongst the public not being able to accept the lockdown conditions. I am sure there are organised gangs planning right now how they can take advantage of the situation

Add to that Africa and India are still in the very early stages but heyho some think we will be back to “ normal” soon