Covid-19

[tim_noone]

Stop embarrassing yourself - you got South Korea and North Korea mixed up....and then been backtracking ever since.
Now you are bringing in the likes of China, Russia and North Korea and stating the bleeding obvious which nobody is denying.

What exactly do you think South Korea have hidden ? They have been praised by other countries for their transparency policies which many other countries have adopted....in the same way they have been held up as an example in lots of other areas.
They are a world leader in many areas and they have more in common with the likes of Japan than the countries you mention. South Korea has the death penalty just like most of America and 60% of the world’s population do.
You talk about them like they are a third world communist state who only eat cats and dogs.

Stick to subjects you know something about - whatever these are.

To your last paragraph....and not having a dig. Do you actually know something on the subject... because tbh. I dont think anybody does .wheres the vaccines? People becoming scared as a result post anything regarding conspiracies to half truths......I dont think anybody knows much at this minute in time.

[TVC15]

I am for the death penalty by the way but used it contradicting myself as I see that is how you all like to try and score points at every opportunity when it suits.

You are way too clever for the rest of us.
This contradicting yourself, getting countries mixed up, making stuff up and generally pretending to be an absolute dumb as f-uck idiot is lulling us all into a real false sense of security.
Absolute genius.

[TVC15]

To your last paragraph....and not having a dig. Do you actually know something on the subject... because tbh. I dont think anybody does .wheres the vaccines? People becoming scared as a result post anything regarding conspiracies to half truths......I dont think anybody knows much at this minute in time.

Not sure which bit you are referring to Tim if you want to clarify.
As for vaccines there will be no vaccine developed for at least 12 months and probably longer according to the vast majority of medical experts - not sure if that answers your question or not.

[Bfcboyo]

Based on your track record so far you will be.

Now your just targeting me after you and your cronies failed to get me banned a few weeks ago. I was right about a few things that hurt you recently and how the country felt on certain issues. Remember what I type is what a higher percentage of what the English population think and believe.

Or you could say the majority of the population have Bfcboyos mindset and belief if you wanted to use your silly death penalty statistics method.

[Bfcboyo]

You are way too clever for the rest of us.
This contradicting yourself, getting countries mixed up, making stuff up and generally pretending to be an absolute dumb as f-uck idiot is lulling us all into a real false sense of security.
Absolute genius.

You are now Woke.

[TVC15]

Now your just targeting me after you and your cronies failed to get me banned a few weeks ago. I was right about a few things that hurt you recently and how the country felt on certain issues. Remember what I type is what a higher percentage of what the English population think and believe.

Or you could say the majority of the population have Bfcboyos mindset and belief if you wanted to use your silly death penalty statistics method.

They are not “silly” - they are factual. Have a go at stating some facts yourself rather than making stuff up.
You do realise that as you are trying to make a point about China having the death penalty and their large population that America also has the death penalty in many states.

The original point being that South Korea should not just be lumped in with other more oppressive countries like China just because it has the death penalty.

But you do love a tangent - now you are bringing up Brexit, the death penalty etc as a diversion to your idiotic posts last night.

[Bfcboyo]

The point is transparency and I personally do not believe China, S Korea , N Korea , Russia and a whole host of other countries are being honest with numbers or possibly something deeper is happening.

S Korea have it under control , how what has China helped them with that they haven't helped the rest of the world with or are all the stats just lies.

S Korea drive through testing apparently helped massively, what a load of tosh it would not show if you were in the early stages of carrying allowing you to go on and spread the virus .

Something is not right , but I will be happy to revisit this and say I told you so.

[thatdberight]

I get that, but 13 days isn't next week

Agreed. That's a doubling every four days. Conway's projection to get their late next week was every three - our recent days extended.

I didn't find that piece overdone to be honest. I expect the media to report a pessimistic, but not hysterical, line. Hysteria doesn't help, optimism will possibly make people feel the job is done in controlling it. The starkness of the impact a small change in an exponential assumption was, I thought, his central message.

I don't know where we'll be by the end of next week. Closer to 10,000 than the current 1,800 deaths, I'd guess.

[tim_noone]

Not sure which bit you are referring to Tim if you want to clarify.
As for vaccines there will be no vaccine developed for at least 12 months and probably longer according to the vast majority of medical experts - not sure if that answers your question or not.

As in to telling the poster to stick to something he knows about...... none of us know anything about it is my point....and just referring to the above strengthens it. It's all a bit of a mess really.

[thatdberight]

Ahh... China are helping South Korea with something that no-one else has. The latest lunatic theory.

[tim_noone]

You are way too clever for the rest of us.
This contradicting yourself, getting countries mixed up, making stuff up and generally pretending to be an absolute dumb as f-uck idiot is lulling us all into a real false sense of security.
Absolute genius.

Your describing Trump perfectly.

[Bfcboyo]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKBN21H0BQ

So lucky these Koreans so far ahead . Just pure luck.

[RingoMcCartney]

Your describing Trump perfectly.

This is true !

However , calling a fellow claret "an absolute dumb as f-uck idiot " because he just happens to have a different opinion, isn't the best look to be fair.

[TVC15]

The point is transparency and I personally do not believe China, S Korea , N Korea , Russia and a whole host of other countries are being honest with numbers or possibly something deeper is happening.

S Korea have it under control , how what has China helped them with that they haven't helped the rest of the world with or are all the stats just lies.

S Korea drive through testing apparently helped massively, what a load of tosh it would not show if you were in the early stages of carrying allowing you to go on and spread the virus .

Something is not right , but I will be happy to revisit this and say I told you so.

So how do you explain Germany and their testing and low death statistics ? Are they hiding things too ?

As for it being a “load of tosh” - that’s the same load of tosh everyone in this country is crying out for now and all medical professional bodies saying should have happened weeks ago.
Of course testing on its own will not save all the lives of those who get the virus - you need the other things in place to...lockdown measure, health infrastructure, ventilators, enough doctors and nurses etc.
I am pretty sure that neither South Korea and Germany have said that testing on its own stops the virus spreading, reduces deaths etc.

Tbh I have no clue as to what you are saying about South Korea - and don’t think you do either.

[Burnley1989]

I’m not sure why China would tell South Korea and nobody else, surely they wouldn’t risk damaging their relations with the rest of the world if they could warn everyone. Just seems an odd one, as you say, time will tell. There’s certainly been some holding back of information from China

[thatdberight]

This is true !

However , calling a fellow claret "an absolute dumb as f-uck idiot " because he just happens to have a different opinion, isn't the best look to be fair.

Just because someone happens to support the same football team as you, that doesn't mean they can't fall under that category. This thread is proof of that. Repeatedly.

[TVC15]

As in to telling the poster to stick to something he knows about...... none of us know anything about it is my point....and just referring to the above strengthens it. It's all a bit of a mess really.

I am just going off what is being widely reported as factual about South Korea....rather than making stuff up about them. If you read his posts last night they were ridiculous with no foundation.

I’m not saying I know anything about China or North Korea or Russia etc in terms of the way they have dealt with the virus and I would have just as much scepticism as most about what these countries say.

I am no expert - I watch and read like others and I am close to people working on the front line. As a country our medical experts have said many times they are trying to learn from the data and strategies of other countries and South Korea is one of these.

[RingoMcCartney]

Just because someone happens to support the same football team as you, that doesn't mean they can't fall under that category. This thread is proof of that. Repeatedly.

Absolutely.

Foul language and personal abuse? No need....

[tim_noone]

This is true !

However , calling a fellow claret "an absolute dumb as f-uck idiot " because he just happens to have a different opinion, isn't the best look to be fair.

Yes I know....But I do miss the Turtles posts if I'm being honest and I'm aware of the Venom dished out on this board....utc!

[TVC15]

Wrongo - stick to reading and reminiscing on all those threads that you spent your life on that have now been locked.
Liking every reply to my posts and pretending that you have somehow changed is getting very tedious and a bit creepy too.

[NottsClaret]

When this is over some people on here, who've maybe not seen much of the world beyond East Lancashire and Southern Spain, should pop over to South Korea or Japan and see for themselves where the UK ranks when it comes to technology, social cohesion and infrastructure.

It's not the South Koreans or Japanese who are lying about figures or floundering for solutions.

[RingoMcCartney]

Yes I know....But I do miss the Turtles posts if I'm being honest and I'm aware of the Venom dished out on this board....utc!

Don't want to get all conspiratorial but. He retreated into the Turtle Bunker months ago. I reckon he got the nod about this bloody virus and hunkered down, long before the rest of us cottoned on

[mdd2]

With regards testing, my worry is the accuracy rate. The guy on the cruise ship, David Abel was his name who with his wife got Covid 19 came down with acute pneumonia and he received fantastic care in Japan. After his symptoms eased he was tested on a daily basis and he said it made him gag it was that bad. One day he tested negative but the next day he was positive again and to be discharged he needed two or three days of negative tests. He is now back in the U.K.

My point is NHS workers should be first but unless you do two or three successive days testing to be sure it is too risky to allow them back around vulnerable patients.

Patience is the key in that we have to carry on what we are doing until the anti body test is up and running and gradually life then can get back to some kind of normality.

A point I was making just after midnight this morning. One negative test does not mean much. All tests results have to be viewed in the context of who has had the test done; does the result fit the clinical picture and how good/reliable is that test. When you are simply screening a population there will be false positives and negatives so how do you know which test results are correct. This is not such an issue for example with screening for bowel cancer (not good for the individual whose diagnosis may be missed or a person has (In hindsight) an unnecessary colonoscopy but pretty disastrous for a health care worker who may then(with a false negative test) go on to infect patients and colleagues.
The next phase is how reliable is the antibody test?
Take rheumatoid arthritis as an example-about half the people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) test positive for rheumatoid factor (an antibody test in use for years) but 1 in 20 of the population will test positive who do not have arthritis although some will later get the disease. A newer test does not have these false positives but still about half those with RA will test negative.
CAUTION is the watch word rather than everyone exhibiting Brownian movement. The News media need to back off and stop stirring it especially some of the so called journalists on Newsnight and Channel 4 news.
We are in unchartered waters and learning all the time, the experts may differ in their opinions right at sometime, wrong at others. Listen to them as they are making informed guestimates of what is happening and is to come. For the non-experts pontificate all you want but please keep yourselves safe AT HOME and as the French say lavez les mains and don't pick you teeth and noses

[tim_noone]

Don't want to get all conspiratorial but. He retreated into the Turtle Bunker months ago. I reckon he got the nod about this bloody virus and hunkered down, long before the rest of us cottoned on

Well he was far from stupid..you may have a point.

[RingoMcCartney]

Wrongo - stick to reading and reminiscing on all those threads that you spent your life on that have now been locked.
Liking every reply to my posts and pretending that you have somehow changed is getting very tedious and a bit creepy too.

The ones where you matched me post for post! Then claimed I was " ruining threads "!

I know we're all living on our nerves at this moment in time and it's tough for everyone. But a little bit of self awareness is always a handy trait to have.

And so, to avoid running the risk of your disapproval of my presence. Afterall, you appear to believe that you can tell me what I can , and cant "like", when I can and when i cant post, I'll sign off now. The fresh air beckons.

Stay safe TVC15 and every one of you out there.

[Paul Waine]

If any mathematician could do it, surely all the results would be the same? It's probably that they are just dealing with the figures, not the science, and variables behind those figures.
If we got to 10k by next week, we'd be the worse country in the world, and none of the expert advice suggests we are in that position, in fact it's the opposite. So I don't think there is anything wrong in questioning that article.

I agree, we should be prepared to question everything we hear/read/see.

My first point about the science: are the numbers reported by all the different countries the same? are the measuring and reporting exactly the same things? if not, comparisons based on their different figures become harder to make.

My second point: differences in each countries cultures. For example, how much smoking? and is that different than, just, how many smoke? how close do the generations live together? does covid-19 spread faster if there are 3 generations living closely in the same households v 2 generations? how much travelling (a) by the resident population and (b) visitors from outside the area - and can workers coming in/going out be different than tourists? how does covid-19 impact across generations? age profile of cruise ships, not forgetting that passengers and crew are very possibly different age profiles. Predominance of "pub culture?" Recreational drug use? Football (and other sports) crowds? Wearing of face masks when you are unwell, almost never heard of in the west, very common/the norm in some Asian cultures.

Maybe all these "cultural differences" have zero impact? or maybe some of them do?

I'm sure it's possible to add more to my quick list.

[Lowbankclaret]

A friends of mine who I was canvassing with in the last election. Her mother died overnight in Blackburn hospital of suspected Covid 19. Result of Covid test not yet back. The first death in a family of people I know.

[mdd2]

Sorry to read that Lowbank.

[Grumps]

I agree, we should be prepared to question everything we hear/read/see.

My first point about the science: are the numbers reported by all the different countries the same? are the measuring and reporting exactly the same things? if not, comparisons based on their different figures become harder to make.

My second point: differences in each countries cultures. For example, how much smoking? and is that different than, just, how many smoke? how close do the generations live together? does covid-19 spread faster if there are 3 generations living closely in the same households v 2 generations? how much travelling (a) by the resident population and (b) visitors from outside the area - and can workers coming in/going out be different than tourists? how does covid-19 impact across generations? age profile of cruise ships, not forgetting that passengers and crew are very possibly different age profiles. Predominance of "pub culture?" Recreational drug use? Football (and other sports) crowds? Wearing of face masks when you are unwell, almost never heard of in the west, very common/the norm in some Asian cultures.

Maybe all these "cultural differences" have zero impact? or maybe some of them do?

I'm sure it's possible to add more to my quick list.

I said a fortnight ago that places like Italy where whole families live together, kiss each other when they meet would spread the virus quicker than a country like ours.
The mathematicians don't take these cultural differences into account when drawing their graphs etc, and therfore their predictions should not be taken as fact.

[mdd2]

I agree, we should be prepared to question everything we hear/read/see.

My first point about the science: are the numbers reported by all the different countries the same? are the measuring and reporting exactly the same things? if not, comparisons based on their different figures become harder to make.

My second point: differences in each countries cultures. For example, how much smoking? and is that different than, just, how many smoke? how close do the generations live together? does covid-19 spread faster if there are 3 generations living closely in the same households v 2 generations? how much travelling (a) by the resident population and (b) visitors from outside the area - and can workers coming in/going out be different than tourists? how does covid-19 impact across generations? age profile of cruise ships, not forgetting that passengers and crew are very possibly different age profiles. Predominance of "pub culture?" Recreational drug use? Football (and other sports) crowds? Wearing of face masks when you are unwell, almost never heard of in the west, very common/the norm in some Asian cultures.

Maybe all these "cultural differences" have zero impact? or maybe some of them do?

I'm sure it's possible to add more to my quick list.

And when it comes to social distancing and face to face contact Paul, missionary or doggie?.
Sorry but we need a bit of light relief- like the bucket method of contraception for those with disparities in height

[Bfcboyo]

I’m not sure why China would tell South Korea and nobody else, surely they wouldn’t risk damaging their relations with the rest of the world if they could warn everyone. Just seems an odd one, as you say, time will tell. There’s certainly been some holding back of information from China

South Korea were spying on China but cant admit that now.

[Lowbankclaret]

10,000 dead in UK by next week? At least he says he's not a doctor or scientist
If you watch every news program, read every article on the Internet, eventually you will find one that you agree with
Why do you never post positive news or articles?

You can look at the raw data. If we do follow Italy’s curve and there’s not much to suggest we are not. 10,000 will be in 14 days.

ADF7144C-C4E2-49E5-993C-54817B97D81E.jpeg (399.04 KiB) Viewed 3022 times

[Lowbankclaret]

You could not see forward 14 days on that picture. Here it is highlighted.

B7789C71-FFFE-445D-A3A1-8F7E0A5C966E.jpeg (456.9 KiB) Viewed 3016 times

[Grumps]

You can look at the raw data. If we do follow Italy’s curve and there’s not much to suggest we are not. 10,000 will be in 14 days.

ADF7144C-C4E2-49E5-993C-54817B97D81E.jpeg

That's not next week, as the article said it would be

[Paul Waine]

Can I just defend the point that S and N Korea , China , Russia and plenty of other countries to boot are nowhere near as open and transparent as the UK , France , Germany and a whole lot of others when it comes to reporting or allowing local issues onto the world stage.

Hi Bfcboyo, I recommend you take a another look at South Korea. It is recognised as being a democracy. Listing S Korea with North Korea, China and Russia is incorrect. The Seoul Olympics in 1988 can be marked as one of the "watershed" moments for S Korea and the emergence of a modern country and modern democracy. Yes, a lot more recent than most European countries, though Spain has only been a democracy 10 years longer.

[Paul Waine]

I said a fortnight ago that places like Italy where whole families live together, kiss each other when they meet would spread the virus quicker than a country like ours.
The mathematicians don't take these cultural differences into account when drawing their graphs etc, and therfore their predictions should not be taken as fact.

That's what I'm saying. There are no facts, at present, that will assist with judgements about what may "encourage" the spread of covid-19 and, possibly more critically, determine the impact of the disease on different populations.

We can hypothesise about these differences. It may be a few years before it is possible to perform meaningful research that could determine causal relationships, if at all.

Conway recognised these limitations in his article. I don't think Conway was claiming his graphs were "fact."

[Grumps]

That's what I'm saying. There are no facts, at present, that will assist with judgements about what may "encourage" the spread of covid-19 and, possibly more critically, determine the impact of the disease on different populations.

We can hypothesise about these differences. It may be a few years before it is possible to perform meaningful research that could determine causal relationships, if at all.

Conway recognised these limitations in his article. I don't think Conway was claiming his graphs were "fact."

One minute the guy is saying 10k in this country, in the next sentence he says in the UK, which one is it? Or does he think the UK is a country. Not the best way to make him seem a reliable source. Even the people on here who back his article admit his timescale is wrong.

[BurningBeard]

Interesting NYT article from a well known claret on leadership styles during crises.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/opin ... hnson.html

[Paul Waine]

One minute the guy is saying 10k in this country, in the next sentence he says in the UK, which one is it? Or does he think the UK is a country. Not the best way to make him seem a reliable source. Even the people on here who back his article admit his timescale is wrong.

I'm pretty sure we can refer to the UK as a country. Yes, we can also spilt into England, Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland, but referring to UK as a country doesn't invalidate anything Conway has said.

Think about it, something that was once topical: which country held a referendum on staying in or leaving the EU? how many member states did the EU have before the UK left? Similarly, think about UK membership of UN, or representation in G7 and G20. What country is the Bank of England the central bank of?

[thatdberight]

One minute the guy is saying 10k in this country, in the next sentence he says in the UK, which one is it? Or does he think the UK is a country. Not the best way to make him seem a reliable source. Even the people on here who back his article admit his timescale is wrong.

The UK is a country.

[Grumps]

The UK is a country.

Really? I know England is, and Scotland is, as is Wales, I don't think I've ever seen the UK as a country. So do we live in two countries? England and the UK... What about Great Britain, country or not?

[Grumps]

I'm pretty sure we can refer to the UK as a country. Yes, we can also spilt into England, Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland, but referring to UK as a country doesn't invalidate anything Conway has said.

Think about it, something that was once topical: which country held a referendum on staying in or leaving the EU? how many member states did the EU have before the UK left? Similarly, think about UK membership of UN, or representation in G7 and G20. What country is the Bank of England the central bank of?

What is the capital of UK?

[thatdberight]

Really? I know England is, and Scotland is, as is Wales, I don't think I've ever seen the UK as a country. So do we live in two countries? England and the UK... What about Great Britain, country or not?

Honestly this is such basic stuff, I suspect you're taking the mick.

No, GB is not a country. We do have a different (unique?) relationship between the 4 constituent parts and in some senses they are independent countries and it's not wrong to refer to them as such when context permits / is clear but the UK is the country.

https://www.un.org/en/member-states/

[thatdberight]

What is the capital of UK?

What does that mean? A nation state can exist without formally designating anywhere a capital. Switzerland doesn't - perhaps its federation of cantons is closest to our four countries within one? Netherlands has two. So do many others. There's no relationship between capitals and countries in that sense.

[Tall Paul]

What is the capital of UK?

London

[Grumps]

Honestly this is such basic stuff, I suspect you're taking the mick.

No, GB is not a country. We do have a different (unique?) relationship between the 4 constituent parts and in some senses they are independent countries and it's not wrong to refer to them as such when context permits / is clear but the UK is the country.

https://www.un.org/en/member-states/

No, not taking the mick, I've never thought of the UK as a country. What is England then?

[Grumps]

London

What is Edinburgh then?

[thatdberight]

South Korea were spying on China but cant admit that now.

But China don't know this, right? So they're helping (for reasons that aren't clear) just one country. Who were spying on them. And who as recently as 30 months ago China were boycotting. But now they're BFF?

Is that the reading from the intelligence bunker at Bfcboyo central?

[Claretmatt4]

It's comforting to me to know that in this period of turmoil and uncertainty, people still find the time to be petty and argumentative over f*ck all on this forum. Really restores my faith in humanity a bit. Its one thing that this damned virus hasn't yet impacted.

[thatdberight]

No, not taking the mick, I've never thought of the UK as a country. What is England then?

A country. Like I say we have a possibly unique relationship where four states with degrees of autonomy have formed a Union into one. I don't get your hang up or how you've never come across this. The UK is a member state of the UN. Was of the EU.