Covid-19

[Tall Paul]

What is Edinburgh then?

The capital of Scotland, of course.

You know April Fools are meant to stop after midday right?

[dsr]

Really? I know England is, and Scotland is, as is Wales, I don't think I've ever seen the UK as a country. So do we live in two countries? England and the UK... What about Great Britain, country or not?

Yes, we live in two countries. The UK is a country as recognised as an independent sovereign nation represented at the UN and other institutions. England is also a country, with fewer formal rights but with a long historic background.

You're falling into the old trap of thinking that because one definition of the word "country" means England, then it can't have any other definition. English (and all other languages) don't work like that. There can be several meanings.

[thatdberight]

What is Edinburgh then?

If you're going to use, "Has a capital" as an indicator of nation status (which is an indicator), you might as well use, "Has an independent currency". In fact that is definitely a better indicator of independent, rather than interdependent, status.

In which case most countries of Europe just stopped being countries.

[Grumps]

A country. Like I say we have a possibly unique relationship where four states with degrees of autonomy have formed a Union into one. I don't get your hang up or how you've never come across this. The UK is a member state of the UN. Was of the EU.

Not hung up, it's just something I've never really thought deeply about, England is definitely a country, a quick check on Google, not reliable, I know.. Shows the UK to be a union of several countries including england, so if the UK is a country, like I said we live in two countries.

[thatdberight]

England is definitely a country

I don't think you'll get any disagreement on that

[Zlatan]

I've learnt lots over the past few weeks, and the main points are that some people need to learn how to use spreadsheets; learn maths; understand data interpretation; and take screenshots without a camera.

[martin_p]

Whatever the answer, surely we can agree that someone calling the U.K. a country is hardly a basis for dismissing everything else he says.

[Grumps]

I've learnt lots over the past few weeks, and the main points are that some people need to learn how to use spreadsheets; learn maths; understand data interpretation; and take screenshots without a camera.

I've also learnt that the maps of the world when I went to school have changed

[Grumps]

Whatever the answer, surely we can agree that someone calling the U.K. a country is hardly a basis for dismissing everything else he says.

We'll see next week

[thatdberight]

We'll see next week

If the death toll next week is not within the bounds of all the projections he set out, you'll have a point. If someone gives a range, you can't call him out if the worst or best case isn't met.

[CrosspoolClarets]

I've learnt lots over the past few weeks, and the main points are that some people need to learn how to use spreadsheets; learn maths; understand data interpretation; and take screenshots without a camera.

very true

I find it fascinating the number of people who don’t understand statistics who are transfixed by exponential mortality graphs. My wife is one. Let’s just say the number of people transfixed is rising as quick as the number in the graph. I’ve prepared mortality graphs for a living and normally I would have to fight to get people to show interest.

One serious point though, that leads to fear. Inevitably people are overestimating the chances of them being badly ill due to this because we only hear about the hard luck cases on the news (there is a high risk obviously, but not as high as in some people’s minds, especially if you are of working age).

I’ve spoken to about a dozen construction trade professionals today (Plumber etc) and they are terrified, and their loved ones at home are even more terrified that they will bring the virus home with them (people with asthma or other stuff). Often these are people who work in a fairly isolated way - I dread to think what carers, nurses, supermarket assistants etc are feeling.

EDIT - just read the article prompting this debate a hundred posts ago. I’m not an epidemiologist but I have worked on health economics stuff and the two are closely related. I like to pride myself on my statistics and forecasting ability. I think Ed Conway’s prediction of 10,000 UK deaths is probably correct, but care must be taken following the curves of various countries - the crucial thing is when each country went into lockdown, all at different times (e.g. Germany’s curve is following ours and is about 4 days behind, but they went into lockdown a day before we did if I recall so should level off at a lower mortality number).

My advice would be - accept something in the 10,000-20,000 range is probable (the UK govt seem to) and don’t fixate on daily graph updates, its pointless, just keep safe while this passes.

[Jakubclaret]

I've learnt lots over the past few weeks, and the main points are that some people need to learn how to use spreadsheets; learn maths; understand data interpretation; and take screenshots without a camera.

Solitary confinement for some people not used to it as some funny effects, some people need to socialise to feel alive, people who are recluses & introvert by nature will feel normal & no different, it wouldn't bother me if the lockdown lasted years I don't want it to because I know the virus will be the reason causing death & misery as a result.

[CombatClaret]

It's comforting to me to know that in this period of turmoil and uncertainty, people still find the time to be petty and argumentative over f*ck all on this forum. Really restores my faith in humanity a bit. Its one thing that this damned virus hasn't yet impacted.

It's hard when a small minority of people insist spreading conspiracy theories, make stuff up or have long arguments on unrelated side topics they clearly know nothing about.
That has to be called out to some extent or it's validated.

[Paul Waine]

What is the capital of UK?

Do you have an England passport?

[Grumps]

If the death toll next week is not within the bounds of all the projections he set out, you'll have a point. If someone gives a range, you can't call him out if the worst or best case isn't met.

I only called him out, as you put it, for saying we'd have 10k deaths next week... Whoever we are

[Paul Waine]

It's hard when a small minority of people insist spreading conspiracy theories, make stuff up or have long arguments on unrelated side topics they clearly know nothing about.
That has to be called out to some extent or it's validated.

All this "social isolation" is a great opportunity to learn some new things and fill a few gaps in your knowledge, whoever you are - me included.

[Grumps]

Do you have an England passport?

The simple question is, is England a country, yes or no?

[Grumps]

very true

I find it fascinating the number of people who don’t understand statistics who are transfixed by exponential mortality graphs. My wife is one. Let’s just say the number of people transfixed is rising as quick as the number in the graph. I’ve prepared mortality graphs for a living and normally I would have to fight to get people to show interest.

One serious point though, that leads to fear. Inevitably people are overestimating the chances of them being badly ill due to this because we only hear about the hard luck cases on the news (there is a high risk obviously, but not as high as in some people’s minds, especially if you are of working age).

I’ve spoken to about a dozen construction trade professionals today (Plumber etc) and they are terrified, and their loved ones at home are even more terrified that they will bring the virus home with them (people with asthma or other stuff). Often these are people who work in a fairly isolated way - I dread to think what carers, nurses, supermarket assistants etc are feeling.

EDIT - just read the article prompting this debate a hundred posts ago. I’m not an epidemiologist but I have worked on health economics stuff and the two are closely related. I like to pride myself on my statistics and forecasting ability. I think Ed Conway’s prediction of 10,000 UK deaths is probably correct, but care must be taken following the curves of various countries - the crucial thing is when each country went into lockdown, all at different times (e.g. Germany’s curve is following ours and is about 4 days behind, but they went into lockdown a day before we did if I recall so should level off at a lower mortality number).

My advice would be - accept something in the 10,000-20,000 range is probable (the UK govt seem to) and don’t fixate on daily graph updates, its pointless, just keep safe while this passes.

10k of those by next week?

[thatdberight]

I only called him out, as you put it, for saying we'd have 10k deaths next week... Whoever we are

To repeat, although I think you know this, he did not say that we would have 10,000 deaths next week.

Firstly, it was 10,000 cumulative deaths by next week. And secondly it was one of a range of numbers he put up. I stick by my earlier guess that, while I hope we will have less than that, 10,000 won't, sadly, look like some sort of lunatic number. I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

[dsr]

The simple question is, is England a country, yes or no?

England is a country.
The UK is a country.

Accept it, and move on. Any more comments about "what is a country" should be put on a different thread.

[Grumps]

To repeat, although I think you know this, he did not say that we would have 10,000 deaths next week.

Firstly, it was 10,000 cumulative deaths by next week. And secondly it was one of a range of numbers he put up. I stick by my earlier guess that, while I hope we will have less than that, 10,000 won't, sadly, look like some sort of lunatic number. I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

He says it's plausible that we will have 10,000 deaths by next week, my point was if this was the case our increase would be greater than Italy, and I don't think official outlets are suggesting that.

[Grumps]

England is a country.
The UK is a country.

Accept it, and move on. Any more comments about "what is a country" should be put on a different thread.

Ok

[Mala591]

It's important to remember that a significant number of people are dying WITH Covid-19 infection (may they rest in peace) and not OF Covid-19 infection.

[thatdberight]

Ok

You'll never make it on to the numpty list with an attitude like that...

[thatdberight]

10k of those by next week?

563 today. If we have no growth (or decrease) in that number today and it simply repeats for 10 days, we'll be at 8,000 by Saturday 11th.

[Paul Waine]

The simple question is, is England a country, yes or no?

Of course it is, and so is the United Kingdom. I'm sure we can all handle the "ambiguities" that can arise from "a country within a country" sort of thing.

Maybe we should have a go at thinking of other geographies that result in "country within a country."

EDIT. If we do, we should start another thread.

[Paul Waine]

England is a country.
The UK is a country.

Accept it, and move on. Any more comments about "what is a country" should be put on a different thread.

Oops, sorry dsr. I've been out for my daily exercise. Hadn't caught up with all the thread.

[Grumps]

563 today. If we have no growth (or decrease) in that number today and it simply repeats for 10 days, we'll be at 8,000 by Saturday 11th.

Let's just see where we are by then, I doubt it'll be 10k,but what do I know.

[aggi]

On stats, graphs, etc the FT's graphs based on log scales are quite informative compared to a lot of the ones that just use a standard scale:





Some explanation on their reasoning here:
https://www.ft.com/video/9a72a9d4-8db1- ... 73ae3ddff8

[Jakubclaret]

Of course it is, and so is the United Kingdom. I'm sure we can all handle the "ambiguities" that can arise from "a country within a country" sort of thing.

Maybe we should have a go at thinking of other geographies that result in "country within a country."

EDIT. If we do, we should start another thread.

It’s pretty straightforward as I see it, England is England, the United Kingdom comprises of England wales & Scotland & Northern Ireland, Great Britain is the same as UK minus NI. It helps when facts are presented clearly, it helps without jargon reading some of the other posts, I was beginning to wonder if my geography teacher was on acid teaching me the subject.

[KateR]

It's important to remember that a significant number of people are dying WITH Covid-19 infection (may they rest in peace) and not OF Covid-19 infection.

why is this important, genuine question, I personally think it's the least important thing of anything on this thread except for tangents about countries, ok an possibly a few other tangents. People are dying of this virus, you can call it anything you like as far as I'm concerned as long as we all understand the cause of death was due to the virus, even if you say the real cause was the underlying health issues of the person who passed away.

[thatdberight]

On stats, graphs, etc the FT's graphs based on log scales are quite informative compared to a lot of the ones that just use a standard scale:





Some explanation on their reasoning here:
https://www.ft.com/video/9a72a9d4-8db1- ... 73ae3ddff8

Most of the worldometers graphs are also available in log10. Obviously you can't do comparators and rebase dates etc.

[thatdberight]

why is this important, genuine question I personally think it's the least important thing of anything on this thread except for tangents about countries, ok an possibly a few other tangents. People are dying of this virus, you can call it anything you like as far as I'm concerned as long as we all understand the cause of death was due to the virus, even if you say the real cause was the underlying health issues of the person who passed away.

So the good news is that cancer and cardiac deaths will be massively reduced this year? Or would you count those as two deaths?

[KateR]

So the good news is that cancer and cardiac deaths will be massively reduced this year? Or would you count those as two deaths?

I simply do not understand what you are trying to say in relation to calling it a name, I am obviously just to stupid to keep up with you.

Are you trying to tell me that the death stat's/numbers by day includes all other deaths for every other event, are road accidents included for example? I was as I said asking a genuine question and again I'll repeat I don't understand your answer in that I believed the deaths announced were all as a result of the virus?

Feel free to explain it to me as you would a child or an idiot but without the insults please, remembering I was posting in regard to the WITH or OF part of the question. Is it yet again a grammatical issue that is such an importance to the poster that I should be really concerned about because of that importance?

[thatdberight]

I simply do not understand what you are trying to say in relation to calling it a name, I am obviously just to stupid to keep up with you.

Are you trying to tell me that the death stat's/numbers by day includes all other deaths for every other event, are road accidents included for example? I was as I said asking a genuine question and again I'll repeat I don't understand your answer in that I believed the deaths announced were all as a result of the virus?

Feel free to explain it to me as you would a child or an idiot but without the insults please, remembering I was posting in regard to the WITH or OF part of the question. Is it yet again a grammatical issue that is such an importance to the poster that I should be really concerned about because of that importance?

It wasn't grammar.

You can only count the death once. If you choose to count them all against CoVid-19, by definition other causes of death are going to decrease. Obviously there will be a significant number of additional deaths this year but there'll be a reduction in other causes.

[Jakubclaret]

If you discounted all the underlying health issues & just counted the virus when applicable the figure would be low, when applicable I mean somebody just dying without any other ailments & just the virus, but most of us especially over 40 have got problems of some description, that’s the worrying part & that’s why the figures are so high.

[thatdberight]

If you discounted all the underlying health issues & just counted the virus when applicable the figure would be low, when applicable I mean somebody just dying without any other ailments & just the virus, but most of us especially over 40 have got problems of some description, that’s the worrying part & that’s why the figures are so high.

US stats rather than UK but it has be "over 60" before it's "most of us"

[KateR]

ok, so I am going to take that as some form of grammatical word change involving WITH and OF is of importance, for the life of me I can not see why, I could probably count on my fingers and toes those who have been designated as dying due to the virus solely without some underlying illness at virtually all ages.

So I don't mind if you want to insult regarding this but WITH & US is absolutely the least important thing I have heard regarding this thread, maybe some would like the title changing again and add With or OF in front, because the last change was also totally irrelevant, I'll hasten to add and be shot down, by the majority of people posing here.

EDIT:
seeing the other posts I can see that other deaths may decrease this year but it is a guess at that, as some/many may have lived with their underlying condition beyond 2020, the fact is that all of the numbers given by country daily are attributed to the virus, they are not segregated by the ailment they had.

If caner or heart attack victims reduce this year it's a mute point, as noted road deaths almost certainly will have reduced, but perhaps deaths in the home due to an accident may well go up, for me all irrelevant, I don't think to the families of those dead it would be at all important to correct them and so no it wasn't this is was that. Therefore I will stick to my belief that it is not important at all. Not to say I am still missing some key point and the penny has not dropped yet.

[Grumps]

I simply do not understand what you are trying to say in relation to calling it a name, I am obviously just to stupid to keep up with you.

Are you trying to tell me that the death stat's/numbers by day includes all other deaths for every other event, are road accidents included for example? I was as I said asking a genuine question and again I'll repeat I don't understand your answer in that I believed the deaths announced were all as a result of the virus?

Feel free to explain it to me as you would a child or an idiot but without the insults please, remembering I was posting in regard to the WITH or OF part of the question. Is it yet again a grammatical issue that is such an importance to the poster that I should be really concerned about because of that importance?

If someone is taken into hospital with a serious ailment, which meant that they were more than likely going to die, but whilst being treated they also tested positive for the virus, then died, would they be counted as a Covid-19 death?. Originally the criteria was deaths of persons having tested positive for Covid-19, which means they didn't necessarily have to die of the virus,to count.

[NottsClaret]

To be fair, whether someone dies WITH Covid19 or FROM Covid19 is a pretty big distinction, although I suspect it's almost certainly what has dealt the final blow in the majority of these cases even if their prognosis for the next 12 months wasn't great.

For example, 50% of people carry some form of the herpes virus. If you tested everyone on their death, you wouldn't say it killed half of them. It likely killed none of them, yet 50% of people still die WITH it.

[Lowbankclaret]

That's not next week, as the article said it would be

That’s his opinion, not mine.

Today’s data continues to track along Italy’s data.

My take on the data is ours will overshoot Italy’s death numbers due to the us not having as severe a lockdown hence out levelling off will be delayed. I expect more severe lockdown measure in the next week week to 10 days.

B476D485-843F-42EB-BE7D-51C4234629E2.jpeg (438.41 KiB) Viewed 2897 times

[Jakubclaret]

That’s his opinion, not mine.

Today’s data continues to track along Italy’s data.

My take on the data is ours will overshoot Italy’s death numbers due to the us not having as severe a lockdown hence out levelling off will be delayed. I expect more severe lockdown measure in the next week week to 10 days.

B476D485-843F-42EB-BE7D-51C4234629E2.jpeg

That’s the trajectory & it’s already been suggested stricter lockdowns will be necessary.

[tim_noone]

If you discounted all the underlying health issues & just counted the virus when applicable the figure would be low, when applicable I mean somebody just dying without any other ailments & just the virus, but most of us especially over 40 have got problems of some description, that’s the worrying part & that’s why the figures are so high.

I'm a fair bit older than 40.maybe I'm lucky apart from a bad back....when it's bad it's bad. Or maybe I've got good genes? 40 plus seems a bit young to be knackered

[KateR]

If someone is taken into hospital with a serious ailment, which meant that they were more than likely going to die, but whilst being treated they also tested positive for the virus, then died, would they be counted as a Covid-19 death?. Originally the criteria was deaths of persons having tested positive for Covid-19, which means they didn't necessarily have to die of the virus,to count.

Grumps, sorry I was busy editing the post you refer to above with further thoughts after I saw some other posts.

Regarding your question I simply have no idea how any health care/hospital/country is recording the deaths, I see a list of dead every day and for me they are linked to how many died today due to the virus. I could care less if you say died With the virus or say OF the virus, they are dead and as I said I am assuming they would not have died that day regardless of there underlying illness if they did not have the virus. It may well be that they would have died next week/month etc, even if they did not have the virus but for simplicity they died that very day due to the virus.

As I said try telling someone's spouse/son/daughter they are wrong for using a certain word when describing the virus, put them right and you'll soon see how important it was.

[NottsClaret]

That’s the trajectory & it’s already been suggested stricter lockdowns will be necessary.

The thing with that is we're now reacting to how the country was behaving 3 weeks ago, not the situation today. The people dying today, were getting ill as we were still going to the pub, Cheltenham was being hosted and back when we were playing Premier League and Champions League games.

There will be a sense of panic as the death figures go up over the next week or two but I imagine the boffins will be looking at spread of infection. Inevitably there'll be political pressure to be seen to act on the headline death rate though.

[Grumps]

That’s his opinion, not mine.

Today’s data continues to track along Italy’s data.

My take on the data is ours will overshoot Italy’s death numbers due to the us not having as severe a lockdown hence out levelling off will be delayed. I expect more severe lockdown measure in the next week week to 10 days.

B476D485-843F-42EB-BE7D-51C4234629E2.jpeg

But you said you agreed with it, when you posted it.
we might well reach 10,000, but I don't think it will be next week. If it is, unlike others on here, I will post that I was wrong. I really hope I don't have to do it though.

[KateR]

But you said you agreed with it, when you posted it.
we might well reach 10,000, but I don't think it will be next week. If it is, unlike others on here, I will post that I was wrong. I really hope I don't have to do it though.

I think maybe the post we will all agree on, is that we also hope you don't have to.

[Grumps]

Grumps, sorry I was busy editing the post you refer to above with further thoughts after I saw some other posts.

Regarding your question I simply have no idea how any health care/hospital/country is recording the deaths, I see a list of dead every day and for me they are linked to how many died today due to the virus. I could care less if you say died With the virus or say OF the virus, they are dead and as I said I am assuming they would not have died that day regardless of there underlying illness if they did not have the virus. It may well be that they would have died next week/month etc, even if they did not have the virus but for simplicity they died that very day due to the virus.

As I said try telling someone's spouse/son/daughter they are wrong for using a certain word when describing the virus, put them right and you'll soon see how important it was.

I was just posing the question, not criticising anyone, as I don't know the answer.

[Lowbankclaret]

Agreed. That's a doubling every four days. Conway's projection to get their late next week was every three - our recent days extended.

I didn't find that piece overdone to be honest. I expect the media to report a pessimistic, but not hysterical, line. Hysteria doesn't help, optimism will possibly make people feel the job is done in controlling it. The starkness of the impact a small change in an exponential assumption was, I thought, his central message.

I don't know where we'll be by the end of next week. Closer to 10,000 than the current 1,800 deaths, I'd guess.

Italy quickly shut down factories, we have a supplier in the northern region who told us over a week ago, they were shut for at least three weeks. Manufacturing and construction has continued in the UK. That’s one of the variables. Did the lockdown in Italy work better than ours.
Only time will tell, today’s figures still track generally on the same line as Italy.
If Italy’s actions have more impact on the spread then ours, our death rate could accelerate and get to 10,000 next week.
If it makes no difference to the spread it is likely to be nearer two weeks to get to 10,000.
But due to multi variables the future is a guess, the data guides us.

I suspect a tighter lockdown is coming.

[Jakubclaret]

I'm a fair bit older than 40.maybe I'm lucky apart from a bad back....when it's bad it's bad. Or maybe I've got good genes? 40 plus seems a bit young to be knackered

Age catches up with some of us more than others, depending on how hard you hammered it when in the prime, it’s not unusual to see 50 or 60 year old men in a fitter shape than some decades younger.