The capital of Scotland, of course.
You know April Fools are meant to stop after midday right?
The capital of Scotland, of course.
Yes, we live in two countries. The UK is a country as recognised as an independent sovereign nation represented at the UN and other institutions. England is also a country, with fewer formal rights but with a long historic background.
If you're going to use, "Has a capital" as an indicator of nation status (which is an indicator), you might as well use, "Has an independent currency". In fact that is definitely a better indicator of independent, rather than interdependent, status.
Not hung up, it's just something I've never really thought deeply about, England is definitely a country, a quick check on Google, not reliable, I know.. Shows the UK to be a union of several countries including england, so if the UK is a country, like I said we live in two countries.thatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:40 pmA country. Like I say we have a possibly unique relationship where four states with degrees of autonomy have formed a Union into one. I don't get your hang up or how you've never come across this. The UK is a member state of the UN. Was of the EU.
I've also learnt that the maps of the world when I went to school have changed
very true
Solitary confinement for some people not used to it as some funny effects, some people need to socialise to feel alive, people who are recluses & introvert by nature will feel normal & no different, it wouldn't bother me if the lockdown lasted years I don't want it to because I know the virus will be the reason causing death & misery as a result.
It's hard when a small minority of people insist spreading conspiracy theories, make stuff up or have long arguments on unrelated side topics they clearly know nothing about.Claretmatt4 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:39 pmIt's comforting to me to know that in this period of turmoil and uncertainty, people still find the time to be petty and argumentative over f*ck all on this forum. Really restores my faith in humanity a bit. Its one thing that this damned virus hasn't yet impacted.
I only called him out, as you put it, for saying we'd have 10k deaths next week... Whoever we arethatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:10 pmIf the death toll next week is not within the bounds of all the projections he set out, you'll have a point. If someone gives a range, you can't call him out if the worst or best case isn't met.
All this "social isolation" is a great opportunity to learn some new things and fill a few gaps in your knowledge, whoever you are - me included.CombatClaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:21 pmIt's hard when a small minority of people insist spreading conspiracy theories, make stuff up or have long arguments on unrelated side topics they clearly know nothing about.
That has to be called out to some extent or it's validated.
The simple question is, is England a country, yes or no?
10k of those by next week?CrosspoolClarets wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:11 pmvery true
I find it fascinating the number of people who don’t understand statistics who are transfixed by exponential mortality graphs. My wife is one. Let’s just say the number of people transfixed is rising as quick as the number in the graph. I’ve prepared mortality graphs for a living and normally I would have to fight to get people to show interest.
One serious point though, that leads to fear. Inevitably people are overestimating the chances of them being badly ill due to this because we only hear about the hard luck cases on the news (there is a high risk obviously, but not as high as in some people’s minds, especially if you are of working age).
I’ve spoken to about a dozen construction trade professionals today (Plumber etc) and they are terrified, and their loved ones at home are even more terrified that they will bring the virus home with them (people with asthma or other stuff). Often these are people who work in a fairly isolated way - I dread to think what carers, nurses, supermarket assistants etc are feeling.
EDIT - just read the article prompting this debate a hundred posts ago. I’m not an epidemiologist but I have worked on health economics stuff and the two are closely related. I like to pride myself on my statistics and forecasting ability. I think Ed Conway’s prediction of 10,000 UK deaths is probably correct, but care must be taken following the curves of various countries - the crucial thing is when each country went into lockdown, all at different times (e.g. Germany’s curve is following ours and is about 4 days behind, but they went into lockdown a day before we did if I recall so should level off at a lower mortality number).
My advice would be - accept something in the 10,000-20,000 range is probable (the UK govt seem to) and don’t fixate on daily graph updates, its pointless, just keep safe while this passes.
England is a country.
He says it's plausible that we will have 10,000 deaths by next week, my point was if this was the case our increase would be greater than Italy, and I don't think official outlets are suggesting that.thatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:33 pm
To repeat, although I think you know this, he did not say that we would have 10,000 deaths next week.
Firstly, it was 10,000 cumulative deaths by next week. And secondly it was one of a range of numbers he put up. I stick by my earlier guess that, while I hope we will have less than that, 10,000 won't, sadly, look like some sort of lunatic number. I hope I'm wrong and you're right.
Of course it is, and so is the United Kingdom. I'm sure we can all handle the "ambiguities" that can arise from "a country within a country" sort of thing.
Let's just see where we are by then, I doubt it'll be 10k,but what do I know.thatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:40 pm563 today. If we have no growth (or decrease) in that number today and it simply repeats for 10 days, we'll be at 8,000 by Saturday 11th.
It’s pretty straightforward as I see it, England is England, the United Kingdom comprises of England wales & Scotland & Northern Ireland, Great Britain is the same as UK minus NI. It helps when facts are presented clearly, it helps without jargon reading some of the other posts, I was beginning to wonder if my geography teacher was on acid teaching me the subject.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:03 pmOf course it is, and so is the United Kingdom. I'm sure we can all handle the "ambiguities" that can arise from "a country within a country" sort of thing.
Maybe we should have a go at thinking of other geographies that result in "country within a country."
EDIT. If we do, we should start another thread.
why is this important, genuine question, I personally think it's the least important thing of anything on this thread except for tangents about countries, ok an possibly a few other tangents. People are dying of this virus, you can call it anything you like as far as I'm concerned as long as we all understand the cause of death was due to the virus, even if you say the real cause was the underlying health issues of the person who passed away.
Most of the worldometers graphs are also available in log10. Obviously you can't do comparators and rebase dates etc.aggi wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:17 pmOn stats, graphs, etc the FT's graphs based on log scales are quite informative compared to a lot of the ones that just use a standard scale:
Some explanation on their reasoning here:
https://www.ft.com/video/9a72a9d4-8db1- ... 73ae3ddff8
So the good news is that cancer and cardiac deaths will be massively reduced this year? Or would you count those as two deaths?KateR wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:46 pmwhy is this important, genuine question I personally think it's the least important thing of anything on this thread except for tangents about countries, ok an possibly a few other tangents. People are dying of this virus, you can call it anything you like as far as I'm concerned as long as we all understand the cause of death was due to the virus, even if you say the real cause was the underlying health issues of the person who passed away.
I simply do not understand what you are trying to say in relation to calling it a name, I am obviously just to stupid to keep up with you.thatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:50 pmSo the good news is that cancer and cardiac deaths will be massively reduced this year? Or would you count those as two deaths?
It wasn't grammar.KateR wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:58 pmI simply do not understand what you are trying to say in relation to calling it a name, I am obviously just to stupid to keep up with you.
Are you trying to tell me that the death stat's/numbers by day includes all other deaths for every other event, are road accidents included for example? I was as I said asking a genuine question and again I'll repeat I don't understand your answer in that I believed the deaths announced were all as a result of the virus?
Feel free to explain it to me as you would a child or an idiot but without the insults please, remembering I was posting in regard to the WITH or OF part of the question. Is it yet again a grammatical issue that is such an importance to the poster that I should be really concerned about because of that importance?
US stats rather than UK but it has be "over 60" before it's "most of us"Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:02 pmIf you discounted all the underlying health issues & just counted the virus when applicable the figure would be low, when applicable I mean somebody just dying without any other ailments & just the virus, but most of us especially over 40 have got problems of some description, that’s the worrying part & that’s why the figures are so high.
If someone is taken into hospital with a serious ailment, which meant that they were more than likely going to die, but whilst being treated they also tested positive for the virus, then died, would they be counted as a Covid-19 death?. Originally the criteria was deaths of persons having tested positive for Covid-19, which means they didn't necessarily have to die of the virus,to count.KateR wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:58 pmI simply do not understand what you are trying to say in relation to calling it a name, I am obviously just to stupid to keep up with you.
Are you trying to tell me that the death stat's/numbers by day includes all other deaths for every other event, are road accidents included for example? I was as I said asking a genuine question and again I'll repeat I don't understand your answer in that I believed the deaths announced were all as a result of the virus?
Feel free to explain it to me as you would a child or an idiot but without the insults please, remembering I was posting in regard to the WITH or OF part of the question. Is it yet again a grammatical issue that is such an importance to the poster that I should be really concerned about because of that importance?
That’s his opinion, not mine.
That’s the trajectory & it’s already been suggested stricter lockdowns will be necessary.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:19 pmThat’s his opinion, not mine.
Today’s data continues to track along Italy’s data.
My take on the data is ours will overshoot Italy’s death numbers due to the us not having as severe a lockdown hence out levelling off will be delayed. I expect more severe lockdown measure in the next week week to 10 days.
B476D485-843F-42EB-BE7D-51C4234629E2.jpeg
I'm a fair bit older than 40.maybe I'm lucky apart from a bad back....when it's bad it's bad. Or maybe I've got good genes? 40 plus seems a bit young to be knackeredJakubclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:02 pmIf you discounted all the underlying health issues & just counted the virus when applicable the figure would be low, when applicable I mean somebody just dying without any other ailments & just the virus, but most of us especially over 40 have got problems of some description, that’s the worrying part & that’s why the figures are so high.
Grumps, sorry I was busy editing the post you refer to above with further thoughts after I saw some other posts.Grumps wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:17 pmIf someone is taken into hospital with a serious ailment, which meant that they were more than likely going to die, but whilst being treated they also tested positive for the virus, then died, would they be counted as a Covid-19 death?. Originally the criteria was deaths of persons having tested positive for Covid-19, which means they didn't necessarily have to die of the virus,to count.
The thing with that is we're now reacting to how the country was behaving 3 weeks ago, not the situation today. The people dying today, were getting ill as we were still going to the pub, Cheltenham was being hosted and back when we were playing Premier League and Champions League games.Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:22 pmThat’s the trajectory & it’s already been suggested stricter lockdowns will be necessary.
But you said you agreed with it, when you posted it.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:19 pmThat’s his opinion, not mine.
Today’s data continues to track along Italy’s data.
My take on the data is ours will overshoot Italy’s death numbers due to the us not having as severe a lockdown hence out levelling off will be delayed. I expect more severe lockdown measure in the next week week to 10 days.
B476D485-843F-42EB-BE7D-51C4234629E2.jpeg
I think maybe the post we will all agree on, is that we also hope you don't have to.
I was just posing the question, not criticising anyone, as I don't know the answer.KateR wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:32 pmGrumps, sorry I was busy editing the post you refer to above with further thoughts after I saw some other posts.
Regarding your question I simply have no idea how any health care/hospital/country is recording the deaths, I see a list of dead every day and for me they are linked to how many died today due to the virus. I could care less if you say died With the virus or say OF the virus, they are dead and as I said I am assuming they would not have died that day regardless of there underlying illness if they did not have the virus. It may well be that they would have died next week/month etc, even if they did not have the virus but for simplicity they died that very day due to the virus.
As I said try telling someone's spouse/son/daughter they are wrong for using a certain word when describing the virus, put them right and you'll soon see how important it was.
Italy quickly shut down factories, we have a supplier in the northern region who told us over a week ago, they were shut for at least three weeks. Manufacturing and construction has continued in the UK. That’s one of the variables. Did the lockdown in Italy work better than ours.thatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:55 amAgreed. That's a doubling every four days. Conway's projection to get their late next week was every three - our recent days extended.
I didn't find that piece overdone to be honest. I expect the media to report a pessimistic, but not hysterical, line. Hysteria doesn't help, optimism will possibly make people feel the job is done in controlling it. The starkness of the impact a small change in an exponential assumption was, I thought, his central message.
I don't know where we'll be by the end of next week. Closer to 10,000 than the current 1,800 deaths, I'd guess.
Age catches up with some of us more than others, depending on how hard you hammered it when in the prime, it’s not unusual to see 50 or 60 year old men in a fitter shape than some decades younger.