I did not think you were, nor did I think anyone else was, more of an opinion on where it was important or not and obviously the jury is split on that and think it's a mute point but I was trying to find out if I was missing something of significant importance.
Covid-19
Re: Covid-19
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Re: Covid-19
It is. Sorry for double posting but in case you didn't see it, US stats say it's over 60 before 50% of people have serious conditions.
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Re: Covid-19
Maybe....I was fu..ed in my 20s self induced.
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Re: Covid-19
No seen it.....I must be doing something right. Or it's the Gene's.thatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:44 pmIt is. Sorry for double posting but in case you didn't see it, US stats say it's over 60 before 50% of people have serious conditions.
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Re: Covid-19
I agreed with the general article.
You pulled out a specific detail in the article.
I have explained in a post, what happens next week will be the effectiveness of our lockdown compared to countries like Italy.
If out actions as less effective we will pass Italy’s figures, if ours are more effective it will be less.
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Re: Covid-19
I hope we don’t have to see that post.
Re: Covid-19
I think the point is that some people die because they had coronavirus and would have carried on living indefinitely if they hadn't caught it. Whereas other people were on their way out of life anyway and coronavirus is the catalyst that pushed them over the edge.KateR wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:58 pmI simply do not understand what you are trying to say in relation to calling it a name, I am obviously just to stupid to keep up with you.
Are you trying to tell me that the death stat's/numbers by day includes all other deaths for every other event, are road accidents included for example? I was as I said asking a genuine question and again I'll repeat I don't understand your answer in that I believed the deaths announced were all as a result of the virus?
Feel free to explain it to me as you would a child or an idiot but without the insults please, remembering I was posting in regard to the WITH or OF part of the question. Is it yet again a grammatical issue that is such an importance to the poster that I should be really concerned about because of that importance?
For example, a couple of weeks back the then-youngest victim in the UK was a man in his thirties. But reading past the headline, the detail was that it was a man with ME who had been given two years to live in June 2018. If he had not caught the virus, he would have lived a little longer, but coronavirus wasn't the primary cause of death.
It's a similar thing with flu and pneumonia statistics. About 110,000 people die every year with flu or pneumonia cited on their death certificate. Approximately a third of them have it as the primary cause; two thirds have it as a secondary cause. Where flu or pneumonia is a secondary cause, it is because they already had something that was killing them, it was just a matter of when they would die. The flu or pneumonia made that "when" into "now".
Which begs the question, what proportion of the coronavirus victims die with coronavirus as the primary cause, and what proportion as a secondary cause?
This user liked this post: KateR
Re: Covid-19
KateR - I see it like this and this is a real scenario that I have mentioned previously. My father is very ill and at a higher risk of death if he contracts the virus. He is 83 and has Parkinsons and chronic heart failure and is essentially bed bound most of the day, only getting up for toileting issues for which he has a care team in to assist.KateR wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:32 pmGrumps, sorry I was busy editing the post you refer to above with further thoughts after I saw some other posts.
Regarding your question I simply have no idea how any health care/hospital/country is recording the deaths, I see a list of dead every day and for me they are linked to how many died today due to the virus. I could care less if you say died With the virus or say OF the virus, they are dead and as I said I am assuming they would not have died that day regardless of there underlying illness if they did not have the virus. It may well be that they would have died next week/month etc, even if they did not have the virus but for simplicity they died that very day due to the virus.
As I said try telling someone's spouse/son/daughter they are wrong for using a certain word when describing the virus, put them right and you'll soon see how important it was.
The point I think others are making is that if my dad dies as a result of contracting COVID-19 he will likely be added to the statistic for deaths OF COVID-19, when in reality his extreme ill health would be the major contributory factor in his death and he died WITH COVID-19. He could die tomorrow without contracting this virus. I suspect, along with many others on this forum, that a large amount of the COVID-19 deaths are similar to my dad, in that the underlying conditions would probably cause death soon anyway and COVID-19 has just accelerated that process.
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Re: Covid-19
At last we agree
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Re: Covid-19
Firstly, thanks for the earlier dig Zlatan, hate for you to change your normal tack at this time.Zlatan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:14 pmKateR - I see it like this and this is a real scenario that I have mentioned previously. My father is very ill and at a higher risk of death if he contracts the virus. He is 83 and has Parkinsons and chronic heart failure and is essentially bed bound most of the day, only getting up for toileting issues for which he has a care team in to assist.
The point I think others are making is that if my dad dies as a result of contracting COVID-19 he will likely be added to the statistic for deaths OF COVID-19, when in reality his extreme ill health would be the major contributory factor in his death and he died WITH COVID-19. He could die tomorrow without contracting this virus. I suspect, along with many others on this forum, that a large amount of the COVID-19 deaths are similar to my dad, in that the underlying conditions would probably cause death soon anyway and COVID-19 has just accelerated that process.
I agree with what you say about your dad.
If I take my mother as an example, she is 76, has bad asthma, been on steroids several Times with her breathing due to flu but never hospitalised.
If she got seasonal flu it’s unlikely to kill her.
Covid probably would kill her if she Got the severe virus the 20% who get lung issues.
So the debate is very difficult where to draw the line. My mum is very realistic, she thinks flu will finish her off due to the family issues with longs but like her mum and dad, it was in their mid 80’s.
If she gets Covid, I think that is what should be on the death certificate if she did pass.
This is an argument no one can win , I think.
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Re: Covid-19
Loving the press conferences, following a really regular pattern.
Journalist: Why are we still lagging behind in testing and cannot hit our own targets while countries like Germany are performing 500,000 tests a week?
Government minister: We are increasing our testing everyday, you also have to remember Germany is a country in Western Europe, it's first chancellor was Otto Von Bismark and has not has a Eurovision winner since 2010. Next question from...
Journalist: Why are we still lagging behind in testing and cannot hit our own targets while countries like Germany are performing 500,000 tests a week?
Government minister: We are increasing our testing everyday, you also have to remember Germany is a country in Western Europe, it's first chancellor was Otto Von Bismark and has not has a Eurovision winner since 2010. Next question from...
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Re: Covid-19
I'm glad to say my mutha is coming up 90 never had a sweet tooth...more of a fatty diet.the odd Ailment in Life.once had some Water infection/problem hospitalised causing delirium (scary) thought she was a goner.then one day she sat up and got better.shes Chipper and was gonna come on't turf in September on her Birthday.
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Re: Covid-19
We do.
The most depressing data today was the jump to 4300 new cases over 24 hours. Flattening of the curve looks a long time away.
In positive news, Prince Charles has recovered.
One footnote, no mention of Boris today that I have seen, he looked really bad yesterday. Anyone seen any update on him today??
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Re: Covid-19
As a general rule, it's over 50s where health deteriorates, not 40.
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Re: Covid-19
I don't know, do you?CombatClaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:32 pmLoving the press conferences, following a really regular pattern.
Journalist: Why are we still lagging behind in testing and cannot hit our own targets while countries like Germany are performing 500,000 tests a week?
Government minister: We are increasing our testing everyday, you also have to remember Germany is a country in Western Europe, it's first chancellor was Otto Von Bismark and has not has a Eurovision winner since 2010. Next question from...
Is our government incompetent? Is our Civil Service incompetent? Did Germany's higher GDP per head allow them to push in? Is their model of healthcare without a single national healthcare provider more agile and have less reliance on one decision making process so that if one state gets it wrong, others can pick up the slack where we have all our eggs in one basket? Did Germany get better advice from its scientists? What have you come up with?
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Re: Covid-19
Hope Inchy posts soon.
His posts are very informative.
Hope he is well.
His posts are very informative.
Hope he is well.
Re: Covid-19
Where were we , we all agreed China and Korea north and south and the Japanese with not to mention Russia were all in on some sort of plot to take over the world.
Now we have substantiated that along with one poster kindly pointing out my genius we can discuss the real source of covid 19.
Now we have substantiated that along with one poster kindly pointing out my genius we can discuss the real source of covid 19.
Re: Covid-19
If the cap fits...
Re: Covid-19
Was that the actual response? We’re f#cked aren’t weCombatClaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:32 pmLoving the press conferences, following a really regular pattern.
Journalist: Why are we still lagging behind in testing and cannot hit our own targets while countries like Germany are performing 500,000 tests a week?
Government minister: We are increasing our testing everyday, you also have to remember Germany is a country in Western Europe, it's first chancellor was Otto Von Bismark and has not has a Eurovision winner since 2010. Next question from...
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Re: Covid-19
Any sort of delirium can be scary especially acute delirium & wet brain it's usually associated with chronic alcoholism when you've passed the invisible line & it's irreversible by then.tim_noone wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:43 pmI'm glad to say my mutha is coming up 90 never had a sweet tooth...more of a fatty diet.the odd Ailment in Life.once had some Water infection/problem hospitalised causing delirium (scary) thought she was a goner.then one day she sat up and got better.shes Chipper and was gonna come on't turf in September on her Birthday.
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Re: Covid-19
I mentioned earlier my friends Mum passed this morning in Blackburn Hospital.
Test just came back positive for Covid 19.
Test just came back positive for Covid 19.
Re: Covid-19
Scientists are not leaders. They give facts. Politicians today, are not leaders. Just scheming greasy poke climbing graduates, wanting a slice of the action.
Tories do tory things and rely on their business mates.
Every day ordinary (extraordinary) people are producing stuff, which is ignored. If the detail was spread and all those that could, made 1 each day, there would be many, thousands.
Tories do tory things and rely on their business mates.
Every day ordinary (extraordinary) people are producing stuff, which is ignored. If the detail was spread and all those that could, made 1 each day, there would be many, thousands.
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Re: Covid-19
The church of the Holy sepulchre in Jerusalem as closed it Church Doors for the first time since 1349 When the Black Plague was floating about.
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Re: Covid-19
Tea total. She's a Rock!Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:52 pmAny sort of delirium can be scary especially acute delirium & wet brain it's usually associated with chronic alcoholism when you've passed the invisible line & it's irreversible by then.
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Re: Covid-19
Further to my post to Inchy on 3D printing.
Airedale have just asked them both to start printing 3D faceshields as they are running out.
Anyone on here have a 3D printer who wants to join in helping the NHS .
Wish I had bought one then I could help.
Anyone wondering why they would ask. My friend printed a 3D prosthetic hand for his son that obviously the hospital know about.
They had also been working on a 3D prosthetic for the lad who had 4 limbs amputated in Skipton at xmas.
So if anyone has a 3D printer let me know!
Airedale have just asked them both to start printing 3D faceshields as they are running out.
Anyone on here have a 3D printer who wants to join in helping the NHS .
Wish I had bought one then I could help.
Anyone wondering why they would ask. My friend printed a 3D prosthetic hand for his son that obviously the hospital know about.
They had also been working on a 3D prosthetic for the lad who had 4 limbs amputated in Skipton at xmas.
So if anyone has a 3D printer let me know!
Re: Covid-19
We were warned there would be good days and bad days, today was a bad day, I was expecting a few like this because that's what we've been told to expect.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:44 pmWe do.
The most depressing data today was the jump to 4300 new cases over 24 hours. Flattening of the curve looks a long time away.
In positive news, Prince Charles has recovered.
One footnote, no mention of Boris today that I have seen, he looked really bad yesterday. Anyone seen any update on him today??
Re: Covid-19
Zlatan,Zlatan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:14 pmKateR - I see it like this and this is a real scenario that I have mentioned previously. My father is very ill and at a higher risk of death if he contracts the virus. He is 83 and has Parkinsons and chronic heart failure and is essentially bed bound most of the day, only getting up for toileting issues for which he has a care team in to assist.
The point I think others are making is that if my dad dies as a result of contracting COVID-19 he will likely be added to the statistic for deaths OF COVID-19, when in reality his extreme ill health would be the major contributory factor in his death and he died WITH COVID-19. He could die tomorrow without contracting this virus. I suspect, along with many others on this forum, that a large amount of the COVID-19 deaths are similar to my dad, in that the underlying conditions would probably cause death soon anyway and COVID-19 has just accelerated that process.
thank you and obviously sorry to hear regarding family status, analogy is clear.
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Re: Covid-19
It’s the general trend I am looking at.
The general trend is still looking similar to Italy.. And I don’t like that.
We are going to bust our ICU capacity at this rate.
Re: Covid-19
Good postCrosspoolClarets wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:11 pmvery true
I find it fascinating the number of people who don’t understand statistics who are transfixed by exponential mortality graphs. My wife is one. Let’s just say the number of people transfixed is rising as quick as the number in the graph. I’ve prepared mortality graphs for a living and normally I would have to fight to get people to show interest.
One serious point though, that leads to fear. Inevitably people are overestimating the chances of them being badly ill due to this because we only hear about the hard luck cases on the news (there is a high risk obviously, but not as high as in some people’s minds, especially if you are of working age).
I’ve spoken to about a dozen construction trade professionals today (Plumber etc) and they are terrified, and their loved ones at home are even more terrified that they will bring the virus home with them (people with asthma or other stuff). Often these are people who work in a fairly isolated way - I dread to think what carers, nurses, supermarket assistants etc are feeling.
EDIT - just read the article prompting this debate a hundred posts ago. I’m not an epidemiologist but I have worked on health economics stuff and the two are closely related. I like to pride myself on my statistics and forecasting ability. I think Ed Conway’s prediction of 10,000 UK deaths is probably correct, but care must be taken following the curves of various countries - the crucial thing is when each country went into lockdown, all at different times (e.g. Germany’s curve is following ours and is about 4 days behind, but they went into lockdown a day before we did if I recall so should level off at a lower mortality number).
My advice would be - accept something in the 10,000-20,000 range is probable (the UK govt seem to) and don’t fixate on daily graph updates, its pointless, just keep safe while this passes.
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Re: Covid-19
Perhaps If they answered the question people wouldn’t need to speculate?thatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:44 pmI don't know, do you?
Is our government incompetent? Is our Civil Service incompetent? Did Germany's higher GDP per head allow them to push in? Is their model of healthcare without a single national healthcare provider more agile and have less reliance on one decision making process so that if one state gets it wrong, others can pick up the slack where we have all our eggs in one basket? Did Germany get better advice from its scientists? What have you come up with?
Re: Covid-19
Just like flu then!
Re: Covid-19
Isn't one of the problems with any lockdown in Italy is that entire families (often four generations) are in the same house together?Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:08 pmIt’s the general trend I am looking at.
The general trend is still looking similar to Italy.. And I don’t like that.
We are going to bust our ICU capacity at this rate.
As for ICU, haven't they announced that Intensive Care Units will only take the most serious cases and the new 'super' hospitals will deal with those who have breathing difficulties, but not those in immediate life-threatening danger.
I think that's where Italy had to make life and death decisions because there were simply not enough beds to go around, and even patients (those we will be looking after in the Excel centre) were dying.
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Re: Covid-19
Good to hear, I think you know I wasn't implying, it's a problem I've witnessed & assisted with years ago with people sleeping rough, anyway I won't mention it again, alcoholism & the virus are seperate issues now, although it wouldn't surprise me if more people are drinking heavier, due to boredom or wanting to relax or whatever reason, I was reading the other day wine sales were on the increase & the alcohol shelves at the garage looked empty the other night.
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Re: Covid-19
Graphs just put on Sky describing what I have just been trying to say.
Always remember predictions are speculative, see the dotted line.
Always remember predictions are speculative, see the dotted line.
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Re: Covid-19
Yup, although if our infection rate is following Italy we'll also be on the mend in a couple of weeks. Going to be bad before then though, better to try and keep a cool head in the meantime. No point having meltdowns every time stats are published.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:08 pmIt’s the general trend I am looking at.
The general trend is still looking similar to Italy.. And I don’t like that.
We are going to bust our ICU capacity at this rate.
If you're ok now, the chances are overwhelmingly that you'll be ok once this first peak passes.
This user liked this post: tim_noone
Re: Covid-19
Don’t be sorry, I’m not and neither is my dad. 83 is a good age, he’s unhappy about being stuck in his predicament and has often said he welcomes death with open arms. He even jokes about it
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Re: Covid-19
Just as an aside.
Here is a 3D printed hand, grips by moving the elbow joint.
Works really well considering it was printed at home and costs about £30.
Here is a 3D printed hand, grips by moving the elbow joint.
Works really well considering it was printed at home and costs about £30.
This user liked this post: Paul Waine
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Re: Covid-19
That’s where the debate is.NottsClaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:24 pmYup, although if our infection rate is following Italy we'll also be on the mend in a couple of weeks. Going to be bad before then though, better to try and keep a cool head in the meantime. No point having meltdowns every time stats are published.
If you're ok now, the chances are overwhelmingly that you'll be ok once this first peak passes.
As I have said we have not locked down to the extent of Italy.
How that pans out is hard to predict but I suggest we will overshoot Italy’s figures both in amount and timeframe.
A tighter lockdown is coming, that’s not going to be a debate.
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Re: Covid-19
What more can we do? Italy is going to have problems shortly if they don't lift restrictions, there's already unrest. You cannot simply keep a country locked up for too long.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:46 pmThat’s where the debate is.
As I have said we have not locked down to the extent of Italy.
How that pans out is hard to predict but I suggest we will overshoot Italy’s figures both in amount and timeframe.
A tighter lockdown is coming, that’s not going to be a debate.
Food supply chain, supermarkets, NHS, chemists, emergency services, utilities, broadcasting etc.. all these need to keep running regardless of daily death stats.
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Re: Covid-19
You can if you're so scared of dying that you're more committed to existing than living.NottsClaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:54 pmWhat more can we do? Italy is going to have problems shortly if they don't lift restrictions, there's already unrest. You cannot simply keep a country locked up for too long.
Re: Covid-19
And neither has Germany.Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:46 pmAs I have said we have not locked down to the extent of Italy.
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Re: Covid-19
Thinking of Italy, wasn't their first lockdown limited to northern Italy: the Italian alps, Milan in west and Venice in east? When did Italy extend their lockdown to the whole country?Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:37 pmItaly quickly shut down factories, we have a supplier in the northern region who told us over a week ago, they were shut for at least three weeks. Manufacturing and construction has continued in the UK. That’s one of the variables. Did the lockdown in Italy work better than ours.
Only time will tell, today’s figures still track generally on the same line as Italy.
If Italy’s actions have more impact on the spread then ours, our death rate could accelerate and get to 10,000 next week.
If it makes no difference to the spread it is likely to be nearer two weeks to get to 10,000.
But due to multi variables the future is a guess, the data guides us.
I suspect a tighter lockdown is coming.
Yes, Cheltenham went ahead. Were numbers down, I haven't seen? Will the spreading of covid-19 be traced to Cheltenham and for both horse racing fans in England and Ireland? When did the Premier League call off games, I know we didn't play City on w/end of 14th March?
Re: Covid-19
The lockdown will be lifted when there are enough beds to cope, it won't be based on the number of deaths per day.
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Re: Covid-19
Agreed on the alcohol scenario with anxiety levels rising as well.im glad I'm not really cooped up with loads of family or young kids...I'd assume that will be very challenging for young single mums/ Dads and couples.its going to be very hard for them indeed.as well as lots of other dependent people.Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:21 pmGood to hear, I think you know I wasn't implying, it's a problem I've witnessed & assisted with years ago with people sleeping rough, anyway I won't mention it again, alcoholism & the virus are seperate issues now, although it wouldn't surprise me if more people are drinking heavier, due to boredom or wanting to relax or whatever reason, I was reading the other day wine sales were on the increase & the alcohol shelves at the garage looked empty the other night.
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Re: Covid-19
We are a week and a half into lockdown light.NottsClaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:54 pmWhat more can we do? Italy is going to have problems shortly if they don't lift restrictions, there's already unrest. You cannot simply keep a country locked up for too long.
Food supply chain, supermarkets, NHS, chemists, emergency services, utilities, broadcasting etc.. all these need to keep running regardless of daily death stats.
We will , I believe need to lockdown tighter. We will see.
The alternative is a higher death rate. That’s a choice we could make.
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Re: Covid-19
You can have a good quality of life indoors just as much as outdoors if not better, it's warmer cheaper & you've got all the entertainment in the world, with firesticks & video console's ect. Give me that any day of the week over a busy shopping centre where you are spending more money & catching germs not to mention possible bombings although that threat seems to have cooled off.thatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:55 pmYou can if you're so scared of dying that you're more committed to existing than living.
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Re: Covid-19
You could have a big Covid 19 party, catch it and get over it. Roll the dice you don’t need ICU.thatdberight wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:55 pmYou can if you're so scared of dying that you're more committed to existing than living.
If I was back in my twenties, I could see me doing that.
Not now.
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Re: Covid-19
I watched Piers Morgan on tv this morning (sometimes I need a change). "Why is Germany doing 10 times for tests than UK." "Germany 500,000 per week." "UK 10,000 per day."CombatClaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:32 pmLoving the press conferences, following a really regular pattern.
Journalist: Why are we still lagging behind in testing and cannot hit our own targets while countries like Germany are performing 500,000 tests a week?
Government minister: We are increasing our testing everyday, you also have to remember Germany is a country in Western Europe, it's first chancellor was Otto Von Bismark and has not has a Eurovision winner since 2010. Next question from...
Thing is, there are 7 days in a week, so 10,000 x 7 = 70,000. Meaning Germany is doing 7 times more than UK, not 10 times.
Why make comparisons by quoting different periods? Look "I have a big number." Look, "I'm now quoting a little number."
It's not one of the media's best features.
Plus, why don't the media ask Germany what they think they are doing differently - and then bring that into the UK press conferences and ask their questions that way?
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Re: Covid-19
I think there are so many differences it would be hard to word that in a concise way.Paul Waine wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:10 pmI watched Piers Morgan on tv this morning (sometimes I need a change). "Why is Germany doing 10 times for tests than UK." "Germany 500,000 per week." "UK 10,000 per day."
Plus, why don't the media ask Germany what they think they are doing differently - and then bring that into the UK press conferences and ask their questions that way?
What's would be more helpful is to allow a short follow up question as the ministers have a pre-scripted response to most questions often not directly answering the question as I somewhat alluded to in my summary.
There are certainly details that could be focused on which would allow less wiggle room eg: why dozens of viral labs were not put into action sooner instead of centralizing all our testing at one site.
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Re: Covid-19
You're sorted then. If that's life for you, you'll be able to continue it even afterwards.Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:05 pmYou can have a good quality of life indoors just as much as outdoors if not better, it's warmer cheaper & you've got all the entertainment in the world, with firesticks & video console's ect. Give me that any day of the week over a busy shopping centre where you are spending more money & catching germs not to mention possible bombings although that threat seems to have cooled off.