Covid-19

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RingoMcCartney
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Re: Covid-19

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:42 pm

AndrewJB wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:41 pm
If you consider the governments failure to deal with this pandemic properly meaningless, and the same governments decade long defunding of our society’s ability to deal with the crisis as meaningless, then what are you?
The majority.
Last edited by RingoMcCartney on Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by RingoMcCartney » Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:45 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:44 pm
SD.jpg

I posted this already but you both ignored it. It's a frame from a time lapse video of the fitting of the Excell Center. There plenty more like it of the construction workers not following social distancing rule. I wouldn't really have cared tbh, the benefits outweigh the risks, but you went full THE SUN on trumpeting the event.


-It's not a working hospital it's a large ward with one purpose in mind that will be deconstructed afterward.
-It wasn't out of thin air, the building and all utilities were already in place and it's specifically designed for large get ins/get outs.
-Workers did not do it under social distancing rules.

But apart from that... And you wonder why they call you Wrongo
Wrong I didn't ignore it at all.
CombatClaret wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:31 am
Wrongo going full Gove.

Sorry but while I'm not going to diminish the achievement of what's been done it's not a "fully functioning hospital" there's no X-Ray dept, Cardiology dept, A&E, Bloods etc etc. It's a large building with lots of beds and basic monitoring equipment. And it wasn't out of thin air the building was already there to begin with.

This is like the '40 new hospitals' which turned out to mostly be upgrades to old ones.

Very impressive and much needed but don't pretend they built a full on hospital. And looking at the timeless video they definitely did not do it whilst keeping to social distancing.
I replied
RingoMcCartney wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:10 pm

Post Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:10 pm

If that's the case, the fact that they have, potentially, put their lives at risk for others . Then I'm sure youd agree they deserve our utmost appreciation and respect for their selfless efforts.

I for one take my hat off to them.
In your first post your claim "I'm not going to diminish the achievement of what's been done"

This sounds an awful lot like you're trying your very best to play down the achievements of the government, the NHS staff , the army and countless others who've pulled of a minor miracle.
CombatClaret wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:31 am
-It wasn't out of thin air, the building and all utilities were already in place and it's specifically designed for large get ins/get outs.
Wrong. 10 days ago, had you fallen ill with Coronavirus, you would not have been able to be treated at the Nightingale Hospital. Today you would.
CombatClaret wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:31 am
"-It's not a working hospital it's a large ward with one purpose in mind that will be deconstructed afterward."
Wrong. Every TV channel, every radio station, every paper, every TV presenter, every political commentator, every politician, every political commentator, even Robert Peston, Prince Charles, has described it as a hospital. The clue is in the name that has been universally accepted. - Nightingale HOSPITAL. Apart from one guy on a football message board !
CombatClaret wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:31 am
-Workers did not do it under social distancing rules."
Wrong. Social distancing rules were already in place during the building of this hospital. The people responsible for achieving this monumental challenge just chose to put protocol to one side and put their lives at risk , in order to save others.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:08 am

East Cheshire NHS

(@EastCheshireNHS)

Macclesfield Hospital are in urgent need of scrubs for our staff who are caring for patients. Do you or someone you know have access to scrubs or similar workwear that they could donate? If you think you can help please contact your.voice@nhs.net

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:11 am

RingoMcCartney wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:45 pm
Wrong I didn't ignore it at all.



I replied



In your first post your claim "I'm not going to diminish the achievement of what's been done"

This sounds an awful lot like you're trying your very best to play down the achievements of the government, the NHS staff , the army and countless others who've pulled of a minor miracle.



Wrong. 10 days ago, had you fallen ill with Coronavirus, you would not have been able to be treated. Today you would.



Wrong. Every TV channel, every radio station, every paper, every TV presenter, every political commentator, every politician, every political commentator, even Robert Peston, Prince Charles, has described it as a hospital. The clue is in the name that has been universally accepted. - Nightingale HOSPITAL. Apart from one guy on a football message board !



Wrong. Social distancing rules were already in place. The people responsible for achieving this monumental challenge just chose to put protocol to one side and put their lives at risk , in order to save others.
They had nine weeks to prepare, and now we have this shambles. Johnson is evidence himself that if you throw enough glitter at a turd, it will eventually sparkle. And now you’re throwing rose petals in front of your master’s path. Where is Johnson? Isolation, okay, but what have you heard from your great leader? He hid in a fridge, and shirked the floods, and now he’s not being a leader again. I did say, he was once my supposed mayor. It’s rubbish, and you’re always the promoter of this rubbish. The supposed economic miracle with Sunak - people still have to pay rent and mortgages, and if they fall outside of help, what are they supposed to do? What are businesses supposed to do? This government is presiding over the biggest economic collapse of my lifetime. And you want people to sit back and consider how it is afterwards? When a car careers toward you on the street, do you wait for experts to tell you to jump out of the way?
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:18 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:11 am
They had nine weeks to prepare, and now we have this shambles. Johnson is evidence himself that if you throw enough glitter at a turd, it will eventually sparkle. And now you’re throwing rose petals in front of your master’s path. Where is Johnson? Isolation, okay, but what have you heard from your great leader? He hid in a fridge, and shirked the floods, and now he’s not being a leader again. I did say, he was once my supposed mayor. It’s rubbish, and you’re always the promoter of this rubbish. The supposed economic miracle with Sunak - people still have to pay rent and mortgages, and if they fall outside of help, what are they supposed to do? What are businesses supposed to do? This government is presiding over the biggest economic collapse of my lifetime. And you want people to sit back and consider how it is afterwards? When a car careers toward you on the street, do you wait for experts to tell you to jump out of the way?
You can see by the graph which countries got it wrong and surprise, it's the US and UK, the ones with the worst leaders.
No wonder they are calling Johnson the worst prime minister in history.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:26 am

This disease spread from the workers communist paradise so to blame democratic western governments for not being ready after a few weeks notice is somewhat lapse IMHO.
Mistakes have been made and lessons learned the NHS should have all they need at all times and after this the low tax regime will have to end. What sickens me is politicians and activists turning this onto a political football.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:27 am

Elizabeth wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:34 pm
The Office for National Statistics are trying to proportion the number of deaths cause specifically by the virus. I think this will be helpful.

At the moment anyone who dies with the virus in the body are added to the figure shown in the death graphs. This is even when they were in the process of dying anyway or the virus was not the major contributory factor in the death.
The resident experts will already know this of course but for some of us this type of understanding may be of use.
This is not to undermine the extreme seriousness of this awful virus.
Is it not the other way around (see below) so the figures will in reality higher than the ones the Government are currently releasing. Considering we don't have enough test's I image there's a not an insignificant number of people who are dying undiagnosed:

ONS figures by actual date of death (death occurrence) tend to be higher than the GOV.UK figures for the same day. This is because:

--- We include all deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, even if only suspected: the GOV.UK figures are only those deaths where the patient had a positive test result
-- We include deaths that happened anywhere in England and Wales, for example some might be in care homes: the GOV.UK figures are only those that happened in hospital.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by RingoMcCartney » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:29 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:11 am
They had nine weeks to prepare, and now we have this shambles. Johnson is evidence himself that if you throw enough glitter at a turd, it will eventually sparkle. And now you’re throwing rose petals in front of your master’s path. Where is Johnson? Isolation, okay, but what have you heard from your great leader? He hid in a fridge, and shirked the floods, and now he’s not being a leader again. I did say, he was once my supposed mayor. It’s rubbish, and you’re always the promoter of this rubbish. The supposed economic miracle with Sunak - people still have to pay rent and mortgages, and if they fall outside of help, what are they supposed to do? What are businesses supposed to do? This government is presiding over the biggest economic collapse of my lifetime. And you want people to sit back and consider how it is afterwards? When a car careers toward you on the street, do you wait for experts to tell you to jump out of the way?
See you at the next general election Andrew.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by bfcjg » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:34 am

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:18 am
You can see by the graph which countries got it wrong and surprise, it's the US and UK, the ones with the worst leaders.
No wonder they are calling Johnson the worst prime minister in history.
The countries who people are storming borders to gain access to ? If France is doing so well why want to come here ? If the USA is so bad why not stay in Mexico ?
I listen to the scientific and medical experts who the government are listening to.
I don't think any country has got it 100 % right but I am so glad I live in England and have the NHS .
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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:34 am

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:18 am
You can see by the graph which countries got it wrong and surprise, it's the US and UK, the ones with the worst leaders.
No wonder they are calling Johnson the worst prime minister in history.
They told us not to listen to experts, so don’t ponce about with your fancy graphs. Everything is fine. Until two weeks from now. And let’s not even think about the second wave.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:37 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:11 am
They had nine weeks to prepare, and now we have this shambles. Johnson is evidence himself that if you throw enough glitter at a turd, it will eventually sparkle. And now you’re throwing rose petals in front of your master’s path. Where is Johnson? Isolation, okay, but what have you heard from your great leader? He hid in a fridge, and shirked the floods, and now he’s not being a leader again. I did say, he was once my supposed mayor. It’s rubbish, and you’re always the promoter of this rubbish. The supposed economic miracle with Sunak - people still have to pay rent and mortgages, and if they fall outside of help, what are they supposed to do? What are businesses supposed to do? This government is presiding over the biggest economic collapse of my lifetime. And you want people to sit back and consider how it is afterwards? When a car careers toward you on the street, do you wait for experts to tell you to jump out of the way?
He's not even trying to defend the numbers now, as it becomes abundantly clear were doing far worse than countries we watched go through this weeks ago. He can't defend the woeful plans which never mentioned ventilators or included testing, plans which were tested and found totally inadequate years ago but were not altered or updated.

All he's hoping we'll be too busy cheering the lions, the everyday soldier or nurse; to see the donkeys leading them. The donkey's which put them in harms way in the fight place. They wouldn't have to be heroes and in some sad cases martyrs If the government had done it's job.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by aggi » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:52 am

thatdberight wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:32 pm
You would wonder what sort of a graph would compare the raw numbers of deaths in Netherlands and the USA. A not very well thought through one, that's for sure.
I linked to an FT article discussing this a few pages back:

Their view, and people will agree or disagree with it, was:

The second question I often get asked is, why aren't we adjusting for countries' population sizes in this chart? So this one is a bit more of a judgement call. What we have with this virus is something which spreads at a fairly consistent rate regardless of the situation on the ground. We tend to see over a certain number of days the same number of cases, after day one, day two, day ten, et cetera.

And that's because this virus, it does spread fast, but it doesn't, you know, ripple through a country's entire population in a matter of days. So the overall population of a country is not any sort of limiting factor on how fast it spreads. It will tend to spread as the people in those cities, in those areas mix at similar rates at the same rate.

Now, we could, of course, still adjust for population, and give you sort of per capita or per million people numbers of cases or deaths. What that would do is essentially just make larger countries look like their outbreaks aren't quite as bad, and smaller countries look like theirs are much worse. With this chart, we're focusing on trajectory. We're focusing on saying, where are things right now, where are they going to be in a few days, and how does this compare to other countries that you're already familiar with from following the news.

So if we changed to per capita, the slopes wouldn't actually change. All that would change is the vertical positioning of different countries' lines. And they would change in such a way that, for example, the American outbreak would look less alarming than it is, and the Danish or Swiss outbreaks would look worse. The numbers that come up in the news, and the numbers that we as humans instinctively react to are numbers of people, numbers of deaths.

I think if we start moving into per capita, per million people rates, first of all, you lose a bit of the immediacy, a bit of the sort of visceral nature of these numbers. We would lose that connection with the numbers that we're seeing in the news. We're hearing about hundreds and thousands of people being infected and dying tragically in countries like Italy and Spain. And I want people to be able to see on that y-axis where they are in relation to that, not where they are in relation to some more abstract number, which loses, as I say, some of the sort of emotional power that I hope this chart has.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:56 am

bfcjg wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:26 am
This disease spread from the workers communist paradise so to blame democratic western governments for not being ready after a few weeks notice is somewhat lapse IMHO.
Mistakes have been made and lessons learned the NHS should have all they need at all times and after this the low tax regime will have to end. What sickens me is politicians and activists turning this onto a political football.
Insane that you begin a political football by calling it a communist disease. And then ask for it not to be a political football. So let’s consider your aftermath:

The low tax regime for the extremely rich will have to end. In fact we should rethink whether we really need the extremely rich, or whether we’d be better off with only moderately rich people. The government will have to justify decisions they make on a “common good” basis. The government will have to be transparent about how and why they made their decisions during this crisis. The economy should be run for everyone equally. Why is the government looking at bailing out rich billionaires when poor people are hungry?

A couple of questions...
Last edited by AndrewJB on Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:57 am

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:18 am
You can see by the graph which countries got it wrong and surprise, it's the US and UK, the ones with the worst leaders.
No wonder they are calling Johnson the worst prime minister in history.
To be fair, the "they" you are talking about have such as visceral hatred of all Conservatives that every Tory Prime Minister is described during office as "the worst prime minister in history".

Do you know, I bet if you look hard enough, you will find some who called Johnson the worst prime minister in history even before the coronavirus. Some of which, it may be noted, wasn't his fault.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:03 am

dsr wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:57 am
To be fair, the "they" you are talking about have such as visceral hatred of all Conservatives that every Tory Prime Minister is described during office as "the worst prime minister in history".

Do you know, I bet if you look hard enough, you will find some who called Johnson the worst prime minister in history even before the coronavirus. Some of which, it may be noted, wasn't his fault.
I think if you want to say he’s not the worst PM in history, all you need to do is give evidence against it. So go ahead.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:03 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:56 am
The low tax regime for the extremely rich will have to end. In fact we should rethink whether we really need the extremely rich, or whether we’d be better off with only moderately rich people. The government will have to justify decisions they make on a “common good” basis. The government will have to be transparent about how and why they made their decisions during this crisis. The economy should be run for everyone equally.

Are those your projections of the outcome of this?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:03 am

dsr wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:57 am
To be fair, the "they" you are talking about have such as visceral hatred of all Conservatives that every Tory Prime Minister is described during office as "the worst prime minister in history".

Do you know, I bet if you look hard enough, you will find some who called Johnson the worst prime minister in history even before the coronavirus. Some of which, it may be noted, wasn't his fault.
I think if you want to say he’s not the worst PM in history, all you need to do is give evidence against it. So go ahead. Who was worse, and why?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:05 am

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:18 am
You can see by the graph which countries got it wrong and surprise, it's the US and UK, the ones with the worst leaders.
No wonder they are calling Johnson the worst prime minister in history.
This Prime Minister "insert current tory PM here" is the worst in history.

Its getting a bit boring throwing out the same line everytime we get a new tory PM.

Get creative and come up with something new, because despite that claim Labour still can't win, got their arse handed to them back in December and at the rate it's going won't be much of a force in 5 years time either.

Worst opposition leader ever = Corbyn.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:07 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:03 am
I think if you want to say he’s not the worst PM in history, all you need to do is give evidence against it. So go ahead. Who was worse, and why?
https://www.dummies.com/education/polit ... ministers/

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Re: Covid-19

Post by AndrewJB » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:08 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:03 am
Are those your projections of the outcome of this?
I think this crisis has shown up the Neo liberal consensus as ludicrous. How would you describe the governments handling of the economy?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:08 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:03 am
I think if you want to say he’s not the worst PM in history, all you need to do is give evidence against it. So go ahead. Who was worse, and why?
Are you judging over their entire career, or just the first 6 months? I'm not sure it's really possible to judge Johnson's full career until he's had it. Though you obviously have.

Lloyd George didn't handle the Spanish Flu crisis very well. Though obviously you were happy enough with him - but then, he wasn't Conservative, was he.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by dsr » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:13 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:56 am
The low tax regime for the extremely rich will have to end. In fact we should rethink whether we really need the extremely rich, or whether we’d be better off with only moderately rich people. The government will have to justify decisions they make on a “common good” basis. The government will have to be transparent about how and why they made their decisions during this crisis. The economy should be run for everyone equally. Why is the government looking at bailing out rich billionaires when poor people are hungry?
Are you looking at a Soviet Union-type command economy?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:10 am

bfcjg wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:26 am
This disease spread from the workers communist paradise so to blame democratic western governments for not being ready after a few weeks notice is somewhat lapse IMHO.
Mistakes have been made and lessons learned

the NHS should have all they need at all times and

after this the low tax regime will have to end.

What sickens me is politicians and activists turning this onto a political football.

You want the NHS better funded, and you want taxes increased to fund it...

But what sickens you are the people who’ve been saying that for a long time.

Who is responsible for the NHS and tax rates? Who is responsible for preparing for the worst? Activists or the government?
Last edited by HieronymousBoschHobs on Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by HieronymousBoschHobs » Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:16 am

dsr wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:13 am
Are you looking at a Soviet Union-type command economy?
What is Soviet about the government needing to be ‘transparent about how and why they made their decisions during this crisis’?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Heathclaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:23 am

Bordeauxclaret wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:05 pm
Right show, wrong character.
Spill the beans.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:14 am

Oh dear me. Unless folk on here are blaming the Government for this mess we are in would have sanctioned stopping folk coming here and leaving from mid January what should they have done. Please dont say test test test; at best this test misses 25% of folk who have it. Not a problem when a blind man on a galloping horse can spot Covid-19 in the very sick.But a real problem when trying to decide if a contact should stay at home or go to work. We isolated, contact traced but I have no idea if we re-tested negative testing contacts in the beginning. When this thing escaped we tried social distancing which was ignored and now lockdown which folk are saying we will not keep up. If this thing carries on (and this weekend will be interesting) Joe Public will have a lot to answer
Successive Governments have closed beds so we were short before this thing; PPE supply has been a problem as have staffing levels. Beds have been addressed in advance of the sunnami now with us, but PPE and scrubs would be the one thing the Government and its advisors have got wrong.
As far as I know the shortage of ventilators has not had consequences yet and only time will tell if what we get, the correct number of ventilators plus Heath Robinson ones to fill the expected breach will come to pass.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:17 am

HieronymousBoschHobs wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:16 am
What is Soviet about the government needing to be ‘transparent about how and why they made their decisions during this crisis’?
Nothing but can we wait until we are in calm waters or do you want a public enquiry via Zoom?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Claret-On-A-T-Rex » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:33 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:14 am
If this thing carries on (and this weekend will be interesting) Joe Public will have a lot to answer
For voting for the worst prime minister in history.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:05 am

AndrewJB wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:08 am
I think this crisis has shown up the Neo liberal consensus as ludicrous. How would you describe the governments handling of the economy?
Necessary.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by NottsClaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:15 am

Sorry to interrupt a politics thread with some Covid19 news.. but another report suggesting this virus is far more widespread than we imagine already. If this is true, lockdowns are going to be causing huge damage for little reward.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:15 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:14 am
Oh dear me. Unless folk on here are blaming the Government for this mess we are in would have sanctioned stopping folk coming here and leaving from mid January what should they have done. Please dont say test test test; at best this test misses 25% of folk who have it. Not a problem when a blind man on a galloping horse can spot Covid-19 in the very sick.
To much to address in that long ramble so I'll just go over the first few items.

- I don't think anyone has suggested we could have stopped the virus entering the country back in January, can you find one on this thread? That's not what people are angry at the government for so please don't imply it is.
- Test, test, test. If WHO and CDC and every other country who is doing better than us recommend it we should be doing it, it's basic virus theory. It's too early days to assign accuracy of the several different types of test. And despite the idiotically re purposed Brexit slogan; a bad or in this case an OK test is defiantly better than no tests.
- Have you really missed the point about this virus being asymptomatic? Also we don't know the full extent of symptoms, the taste & smell factor is still to be confirmed for example.

You then go on to blame the public for not adhering to delayed & confusing social distancing rules with too many exceptions and not enough enforcement.
Last edited by CombatClaret on Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by randomclaret2 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:20 am

Im sure people all over the couhtry at the moment are fretting over the neo-liberal concensus

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:22 am

Elizabeth wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:34 pm
The Office for National Statistics are trying to proportion the number of deaths cause specifically by the virus. I think this will be helpful.

At the moment anyone who dies with the virus in the body are added to the figure shown in the death graphs. This is even when they were in the process of dying anyway or the virus was not the major contributory factor in the death.

The resident experts will already know this of course but for some of us this type of understanding may be of use.

This is not to undermine the extreme seriousness of this awful virus.
I think in the past few weeks there was a lot of people who still thought this was not really serious and were not taking this seriously, you only needed to drive to Tesco .
Things have changed in the last couple of days, think it’s sunk in now.

So the actual amounts are not an issue, the general trend is now what’s important. They can tinker with the figures but the death rate will still be high.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by GodIsADeeJay81 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:29 am

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:33 am
For voting for the worst prime minister in history.
He isn't, unless you can prove otherwise?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:35 am

NottsClaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:15 am
Sorry to interrupt a politics thread with some Covid19 news.. but another report suggesting this virus is far more widespread than we imagine already. If this is true, lockdowns are going to be causing huge damage for little reward.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
The author says the sample size is too small, only 166 people. Also I thought we weren't allowed to believe China?

Asymptomatic people on lockdown can't give it other people, so fewer people die. The amount of Asymptomatic people doesn't really matter If we overload the NHS with the sick and dying.

What helps in all of this though is... testing.
Last edited by CombatClaret on Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Hapag Lloyd » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:36 am

Claret-On-A-T-Rex wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:33 am
For voting for the worst prime minister in history.
In your opinion, how do you think the Spanish government is handling the crisis?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:39 am

NottsClaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:15 am
Sorry to interrupt a politics thread with some Covid19 news.. but another report suggesting this virus is far more widespread than we imagine already. If this is true, lockdowns are going to be causing huge damage for little reward.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
Is that not the second time you have linked that report. I am not sure where your heading with this.

Currently we are heading for between 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in my opinion. If we stopped the lockdown now and just carried on regardless we would end up with 200,000 to 400,000 according to many people’s arguments , less than 1% of the population.

I have argued long and hard it would be between 3-4% of the population which would be 2,000,000 to 2,500,000 .

Which outcome is little reward, saving a couple of hundred thousand or a few million???

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:42 am

randomclaret2 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:20 am
Im sure people all over the couhtry at the moment are fretting over the neo-liberal concensus
The same people shouting about its death (while most people wonder what they're talking about) are the same people who were stood with their champagne ready on 12 December last year. Four months has been long enough for them to forget.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:44 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:39 am


I have argued long and hard it would be between 3-4% of the population which would be 2,000,000 to 2,500,000 .

"Argued" in the sense of "had a row about it". Definitely.

"Argued" in the sense of given anyone a reason why a number a five year old could construct is better than the modelling of epidemiologists and medical experts?

Not so much. In fact not at all.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:50 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:39 am
Is that not the second time you have linked that report.
Is it? Show me the two times.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:51 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:39 am
Which outcome is little reward, saving a couple of hundred thousand or a few million???
You've got lots of numbers. You start the bidding. Here's a simple question.

What number of projected deaths would be too few to merit the current action being taken?

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Re: Covid-19

Post by NottsClaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:02 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:39 am
Is that not the second time you have linked that report. I am not sure where your heading with this.
Nope, it was a report in Iceland last time. Both too small sample sizes to be relied on but as far as I know, along with the cruise ship, they’re the only ones where everyone is tested regardless of symptoms.

I understand the anger at politicians who didn’t see this first wave coming. But there’s a lot of people who don’t see coming the deaths and ill health in future years due to repercussions of lockdown and its resulting depression.

The only point I’m making is I’m not sure it’s justified sacrificing anyone and everyone who relies on healthcare over the next decade to simply slow down a virus which will inevitably pass through the population anyway before a mass vaccination is possible.

It’s not a black and white debate and there’s no right answer.
Last edited by NottsClaret on Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:04 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:50 am
Is it? Show me the two times.
Sorry must have been someone else, but I have read it from a link on here.

Apologies.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:09 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:44 am
"Argued" in the sense of "had a row about it". Definitely.

"Argued" in the sense of given anyone a reason why a number a five year old could construct is better than the modelling of epidemiologists and medical experts?

Not so much. In fact not at all.
The point I am trying to make is how many deaths are acceptable to people.

If people are arguing against lockdown , they are arguing to allow more deaths.

Again I don’t believe the so called experts, they have been wrong about just everything recently.

The experts are saying around 1% death rate, so is 660,000 deaths in the UK acceptable to you? if it is then an argument against lockdown is valid.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by Lowbankclaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:13 am

thatdberight wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:51 am
You've got lots of numbers. You start the bidding. Here's a simple question.

What number of projected deaths would be too few to merit the current action being taken?
That’s a strange Question.

The experts say 1% that’s 660,000. Sounds like your happy with that death rate??

20,000 to 40,000 deaths is what’s being planned for with the actions being taken, saving 620,000 people lives is I think is justified in having this lockdown.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by NottsClaret » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:18 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:09 am
The point I am trying to make is how many deaths are acceptable to people.

If people are arguing against lockdown , they are arguing to allow more deaths.

Again I don’t believe the so called experts, they have been wrong about just everything recently.

The experts are saying around 1% death rate, so is 660,000 deaths in the UK acceptable to you? if it is then an argument against lockdown is valid.

The fatality rate is less than 1% and a large number of those would not have survived another 12 months. The average age of death due to Covid19 is 79.5. The average life expectancy in the UK is 81.

These are horrible decisions to make and it’s easy to make emotional points about ‘how many do you want to die?’. But the NHS will need to be funded by us all over the next 10 years and we’re massively damaging our ability to do that right now.

How many deaths due to depression, stress, a crippled economy and reduced NHS funding do you think is acceptable? They might not appear in an easy to follow Sky News graphic just yet but they’ll be just as tragic and will play out over many years.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by thatdberight » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:28 am

Lowbankclaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:13 am
That’s a strange Question.

The experts say 1% that’s 660,000. Sounds like your happy with that death rate??

20,000 to 40,000 deaths is what’s being planned for with the actions being taken, saving 620,000 people lives is I think is justified in having this lockdown.
Answer the question. Stop squirming.

What's the number of projected deaths at which you'd say, "This isn't worth it"?

Not a difficult question for a man who's got all the numbers and knows his position. Just a number.

Oh, and the experts don't say 660,000. That's the IFR x population - which isn't the right sum.

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Re: Covid-19

Post by RingoMcCartney » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:33 am

Just off the phone after speaking to a member of staff in a local care home.

I was told , and I've no reason to disbelieve her, that in 2 separate care homes in Burnley. A member of staff in one, and a member of staff and a resident in the other are sadly, suspected of succumbing to this horrible virus.

The one in which she works, where I have a very close family member, has had a member of staff go into self isolation and the wing in which she worked closed down as a precaution. Problem is , theyve had to move the residents from that wing, into the already full other wings.

Very concerning news, if like me, you have loved ones in a residential care home.
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Re: Covid-19

Post by mdd2 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:37 am

"Have you really missed the point about this virus being asymptomatic? Also we don't know the full extent of symptoms, the taste & smell factor is still to be confirmed for example".
Crikey Combat I think the example of the initial super spreader told us the virus can be carried without symptoms. So we have an unreliable test for excluding infection and we test a load of asymptomatic people and some are positive, many negative-when do we re-test the negatives?
I agree it should be test test test when we have a reliable antibody test but not until then unless we are able to contact trace the thousands upon thousands of the contacts of the cases we currently diagnose accepting a miss rate of at least 25%.
If there is a relapse in social distancing and staying at home this weekend it won't be due to unclear messages emanating from on high
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Re: Covid-19

Post by Mala591 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:42 pm

NottsClaret wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:18 am
The fatality rate is less than 1% and a large number of those would not have survived another 12 months. The average age of death due to Covid19 is 79.5. The average life expectancy in the UK is 81.

These are horrible decisions to make and it’s easy to make emotional points about ‘how many do you want to die?’. But the NHS will need to be funded by us all over the next 10 years and we’re massively damaging our ability to do that right now.

How many deaths due to depression, stress, a crippled economy and reduced NHS funding do you think is acceptable? They might not appear in an easy to follow Sky News graphic just yet but they’ll be just as tragic and will play out over many years.
I suspect the over 75's would prefer the lockdown to continue for 'several months' and the under 75's would go for 'a few more weeks then we'll take our chance'.

Not an easy decision to make but the decision will have to be made nonetheless.

Locked