Covid-19

[RingoMcCartney]

Aye was sucked in by some Red Top online.

Is that right!?

Care to post which one?

Or are you, and I'm not using my words, but your own-

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:18 am

a massive lying tosser.

Shouldn't be too tricky for you.....

[ClaretAndJew]

Is that right!?

Care to post which one?

Or are you, and I'm not using my words, but your own-



Shouldn't be too tricky for you.....

Can only find the tweet which is here https://twitter.com/jamesmelville/statu ... 20229?s=21

Which has since been deleted. There was a screen grab of The Sun saying he'd recovered but it was obviously wrong.

[fatboy47]

What should be the most relevant, interesting, informative and important thread on the board now totally buggered up and virtually unreadable thanks to the vanity of the usual handful of imbeciles unable to manage their fragile egos and empty headed opinions with any class.

[Lowbankclaret]

Morning everyone,
It’s a lovely day out there, just going to walk the dogs and planning a BBQ later if this weather holds up today.

Have a nice day clarets fans.

Whilst practising social distancing of course.

[tim_noone]

Morning everyone,
It’s a lovely day out there, just going to walk the dogs and planning a BBQ later if this weather holds up today.

Have a nice day clarets fans.

Whilst practising social distancing of course.

I'm putting the washing out please be considerate as to where you put the BBQ .thank you.

[FactualFrank]

What should be the most relevant, interesting, informative and important thread on the board now totally buggered up and virtually unreadable thanks to the vanity of the usual handful of imbeciles unable to manage their fragile egos and empty headed opinions with any class.

I'm surprised the thread still exists. And a good handful of posters are allowed to still post. Should have been binned.

[evensteadiereddie]

Last I heard, any serial bickerers and thread-wreckers would be given the boot. I, for one, have made a conscious effort not to get suckered in again by the worst offender but others have fallen for it, which is a pity.
This thread MUST stay open.

[FactualFrank]

A sticky at the top, linking to the best news sources would be better.

Either those posters need banning or the thread needs binning.

One has to happen.

[evensteadiereddie]

I think this thread is invaluable. Links to the best news sources would be a good idea but posters tend to refer to these, opinion polls notwithstanding, anyway so the balance and genuine subsequent discussion is generally fair....

[RingoMcCartney]

Can only find the tweet which is here https://twitter.com/jamesmelville/statu ... 20229?s=21

Which has since been deleted. There was a screen grab of The Sun saying he'd recovered but it was obviously wrong.

Fair enough.

Giving the passage of time it shows how inaccurate the information was, as far as I'm aware, the PM is still self isolating as he's still exhibiting symptoms of this horrible virus. Been said already, people use this thread for news and information. May just want to double check the accuracy of your sources going forward. I know you wouldn't want to, inadvertently , misinform anyone.

[Blackrod]

Are the 20,000 people we deem it safe to fly back from India going straight into quarantine and for how long ?

[ClaretAndJew]

Fair enough.

Giving the passage of time it shows how inaccurate the information was, as far as I'm aware, the PM is still self isolating as he's still exhibiting symptoms of this horrible virus. Been said already, people use this thread for news and information. May just want to double check the accuracy of your sources going forward. I know you wouldn't want to, inadvertently , misinform anyone.

Problem I find with Twitter is the nature in which some people will say something with such conviction that you can't help but think it must be correct otherwise they could get in trouble for saying it.

When it's incorrect, as in this case, makes me look stupid and I jumped the gun.

You're right of course in maintaining accurate information.

[Lowbankclaret]

Are the 20,000 people we deem it safe to fly back from India going straight into quarantine and for how long ?

Same as the people coming back from Italy, America and everywhere else.

They just come in and follow what we do.

Bonkers!

[Bordeauxclaret]

Are the 20,000 people we deem it safe to fly back from India going straight into quarantine and for how long ?

Question for the Home Secretary right there.

[martin_p]

Same as the people coming back from Italy, America and everywhere else.

They just come in and follow what we do.

Bonkers!

India currently has less than 3.5k cases. Anyone coming from India is significantly less likely to be infected than anyone coming from London and we’re still allowing Londoners to travel the country (if essential).

[RingoMcCartney]

Problem I find with Twitter is the nature in which some people will say something with such conviction that you can't help but think it must be correct otherwise they could get in trouble for saying it.

When it's incorrect, as in this case, makes me look stupid and I jumped the gun.

You're right of course in maintaining accurate information.

Dont be too concerned about " looking stupid " . You dont. But if you did, you'd be in good company with us on here!

And bare in mind, there are so called "professional " political commentators who are paid handsomely for their "informed" opinions. They too "jump the gun" and are then publicly humiliated on their own TV show as somebody far more knowledgeable on the subject tears a strip off them ! Robert Peston anyone!?

Anyway, remember, "The Man Who Never Makes a Mistake , Will Never Make Anything"

Keep safe and well, C n J.

[Lowbankclaret]

Problem I find with Twitter is the nature in which some people will say something with such conviction that you can't help but think it must be correct otherwise they could get in trouble for saying it.

When it's incorrect, as in this case, makes me look stupid and I jumped the gun.

You're right of course in maintaining accurate information.

No matter where you post links from, some people call it out as fake news. Even if it turns out later it was a true story those people don’t put there hand up and admit they were wrong.

I have to say it appears we are now split into two groups.

Those who think it’s really serious and what we are doing is required and necessary to keep deaths down.

And those who think we should not lockdown and accept what comes.

Italy and now Spain both look to be showing us Lockdown works at stopping death rates growing.

Sweden will show us if not doing lockdown would have been a way forward.

The biggest question now is how the hell we get out of lockdown, luckily Italy and Spain will be working that out ahead of us and we can hopefully learn from them.

One things for sure we all will have time to watch it play out locked in our homes.

[ClaretAndJew]

Dont be too concerned about " looking stupid " . You dont. But if you did, you'd be in good company with us on here!

And bare in mind, there are so called "professional " political commentators who are paid handsomely for their "informed" opinions. They too "jump the gun" and are then publicly humiliated on their own TV show as somebody far more knowledgeable on the subject tears a strip off them ! Robert Peston anyone!?

Anyway, remember, "The Man Who Never Makes a Mistake , Will Never Make Anything"

Keep safe and well, C n J.

And you Ringo.

[Spijed]

The UK could see an estimated 7,000 to 20,000 deaths during the coronavirus pandemic, one of the country's top epidemiologists has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson told the BBC's Andrew Marr that experts believe the number of deaths "could be anywhere between about 7,000 or so up to a little over 20,000".

He said there are "some signs" the lockdown has helped slow the spread of virus, adding that the epidemic will likely plateau in the next seven to 10 days.

Prof Ferguson, whose modelling has guided the UK government on coronavirus, said: "What is critically important then is how quickly case numbers go down - do we see a long, flat peak or do we, as we hope, see a much faster decline?

[CrosspoolClarets]

The thing is, every country is unique.

We have, for better or worse, got few companies British owned now and they will prioritise their own country - e.g. the ventilator producer now owned by a Chinese conglomerate who shipped many of them produced here back to China last month.

We have our own geography, unlike Swedens who have far fewer people per square mile.

We have failed to stockpile PPE and prepare for mass testing in the past. Every single annual report of Public Health England only (briefly) references a flu pandemic and these do not need mass testing in the same way.

These are all facts - so we can be playing the blame game in politics but in reality our destiny is probably predetermined. An earlier lockdown would probably have saved “x” lives just like a later lockdown would cost “y” lives, but there is no way we could ever have done a South Korea who were prepared for this after SARS.

Best thing to do, batten down the hatches, beat it, then move on without recrimination. Then build a new Britain heeding the lessons of the old one (more self sufficiency for a start).

[Lowbankclaret]

India currently has less than 3.5k cases. Anyone coming from India is significantly less likely to be infected than anyone coming from London and we’re still allowing Londoners to travel the country (if essential).

India is a difficult one, poverty is rife. Health care is not great. I haven’t read any data on India’s testing but I suggest it’s not going be big.
India has a population of 1.339 billion, I have found an article that says India has done 50 tests per million people, compare that to South Korea at 8,800 per million.

I watched a feature on India where 1 million left Mumbai to go to remote villages as they were daily paid workers and had no money, no food. That’s no going to have been a good thing in my book.

Personally I agree with Trump here, America will head the table until it really gets a grip on India.

I think India will suffer badly from this.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 986805.cms

[RingoMcCartney]

The thing is, every country is unique.

We have, for better or worse, got few companies British owned now and they will prioritise their own country - e.g. the ventilator producer now owned by a Chinese conglomerate who shipped many of them produced here back to China last month.

We have our own geography, unlike Swedens who have far fewer people per square mile.

We have failed to stockpile PPE and prepare for mass testing in the past. Every single annual report of Public Health England only (briefly) references a flu pandemic and these do not need mass testing in the same way.

These are all facts - so we can be playing the blame game in politics but in reality our destiny is probably predetermined. An earlier lockdown would probably have saved “x” lives just like a later lockdown would cost “y” lives, but there is no way we could ever have done a South Korea who were prepared for this after SARS.

Best thing to do, batten down the hatches, beat it, then move on without recrimination. Then build a new Britain heeding the lessons of the old one (more self sufficiency for a start).

How much common sense can one man fit in a single post!?

Fine effort.

[Spijed]

India currently has less than 3.5k cases. Anyone coming from India is significantly less likely to be infected than anyone coming from London and we’re still allowing Londoners to travel the country (if essential).

Thosand's in India die from different illnesses without it being reported.

I suspect the 3.5k figure is vastly under reported.

[taio]

There is talk of banning outdoor exercise. I'd have thought a better next step would be to forbid adults to exercise in public space together.

[Lowbankclaret]

The UK could see an estimated 7,000 to 20,000 deaths during the coronavirus pandemic, one of the country's top epidemiologists has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson told the BBC's Andrew Marr that experts believe the number of deaths "could be anywhere between about 7,000 or so up to a little over 20,000".

He said there are "some signs" the lockdown has helped slow the spread of virus, adding that the epidemic will likely plateau in the next seven to 10 days.

Prof Ferguson, whose modelling has guided the UK government on coronavirus, said: "What is critically important then is how quickly case numbers go down - do we see a long, flat peak or do we, as we hope, see a much faster decline?

That’s where I have issues with experts, any of us on here can see it’s going to hit his lower figure by Thursday/Friday next week. The upper 20,000 figure still hangs in the balance, as can be seen from the graph shared earlier currently our death rate is not slowing like Italy’s did. Let’s hope that starts today or it’s likely we overshoot the 20,000.

I am sure he knows this but does not want to say it will be between 20-40 k.

[Lowbankclaret]

There is talk of banning outdoor exercise. I'd have thought a better next step would be to forbid adults to exercise in public space together.

That’s coming unfortunately.
If our death figures hit say around 800 today and there are pictures all over of people not Social distancing , they will bring in tougher rules.

[taio]

That’s coming unfortunately.
If our death figures hit say around 800 today and there are pictures all over of people not Social distancing , they will bring in tougher rules.

Seems so. But I do think there should be ways of tightening controls in the first instance without the need for an outright ban on outdoor exercise.

[randomclaret2]

It would be a real shame if millions of people who are by and large adhering to the regulations have their already severely curtailed lives even further squeezed by the actions of a tiny selfish minority

[Spijed]

That’s where I have issues with experts, any of us on here can see it’s going to hit his lower figure by Thursday/Friday next week. The upper 20,000 figure still hangs in the balance, as can be seen from the graph shared earlier currently our death rate is not slowing like Italy’s did. Let’s hope that starts today or it’s likely we overshoot the 20,000.

I am sure he knows this but does not want to say it will be between 20-40 k.

Where have you got the 40k figure from?

[CombatClaret]

We have failed to stockpile PPE and prepare for mass testing in the past. Every single annual report of Public Health England only (briefly) references a flu pandemic and these do not need mass testing in the same way.

These are all facts - so we can be playing the blame game in politics but in reality our destiny is probably predetermined. An earlier lockdown would probably have saved “x” lives just like a later lockdown would cost “y” lives, but there is no way we could ever have done a South Korea who were prepared for this after SARS.

Best thing to do, batten down the hatches, beat it, then move on without recrimination. Then build a new Britain heeding the lessons of the old one (more self sufficiency for a start).

To say our fate is predetermined obfuscates all responsibility, I bet the government would love that, Ringo seems to.
Keeping people safe is one of the most basic functions of government, we've seen them go all out over terrorism which in reality kills very few people but the public feel scared about so the response is somewhat focused toward the ballot box.
The US has already lost more people than 9/11 and could reach that number daily.
Lot of very smart people have always said the risks to us all from a global pandemic is huge, we saw SARS & MERS and we thought oh that can only happen in Asia and it did only thanks to the excellent responses of the governments involved instead only confirmed our own exceptionalism.
Look at how much the economy is going to suffer, it will be far, far greater than the cost of effectively preparing for this in the first place not to mention the cost in lives.

[thatdberight]

The biggest question now is how the hell we get out of lockdown, luckily Italy and Spain will be working that out ahead of us and we can hopefully learn from them.

They're going to hide hoping it goes away. Which it won't.

[martin_p]

Thosand's in India die from different illnesses without it being reported.

I suspect the 3.5k figure is vastly under reported.

As will be the figures for the U.K. and London.

[Lowbankclaret]

After being critical of the Prof on Spijeds post. I think his overall model is probably around correct. Might debate his use of 0,9 death rate, but that’s the experts view.

Here’s an article which in part mirrors the debate on here.

I would love them to make the models public.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... migod.html

[Lowbankclaret]

Where have you got the 40k figure from?

It my current thought about where we will end up, looking at numbers in Italy and Spain and our current rate of deaths.

[Lowbankclaret]

Seems so. But I do think there should be ways of tightening controls in the first instance without the need for an outright ban on outdoor exercise.

Took the dogs out this morning, you can see the increased footfall by the condition of the pathways. One of the paths I use, I had to strim the last two years it’s was so unused. It will not need it this year, the path is twice as wide already.

People were being very careful today, but the idiots will spoil it.

[tim_noone]

Took the dogs out this morning, you can see the increased footfall by the condition of the pathways. One of the paths I use, I had to strim the last two years it’s was so unused. It will not need it this year, the path is twice as wide already.

People were being very careful today, but the idiots will spoil it.

Who are the idiots?

[taio]

Who are the idiots?

The people flouting the rules.

[Lowbankclaret]

Those who are still going fishing, like yesterday.
Spoke to an officer who had to stop 6 people playing football yesterday.
All those sunbathing in the news reports.
How hard can it be.
Stay home.
One lot of exercise a day. That does not include sunbathing, playing football, cycling in groups , etc

Go to the shop or pharmacy.

Nothing else

[CombatClaret]

The biggest question now is how the hell we get out of lockdown, luckily Italy and Spain will be working that out ahead of us and we can hopefully learn from them.

We didn't learn from them going into this...

[Jakubclaret]

The people flouting the rules.

The rules cater for a senseless minority, the vast overwhelming majority of people are all doing the right thing & probably would do with or without instructions, it’s all common sense about distances & avoiding large groups now.

[FactualFrank]

We didn't learn from them going into this...

Getting out of lockdown will be like a tap being slowly turned on, I imagine.

We have front line workers. It'll be the workers on the second line who can then go back to work.

[taio]

Surely prioritised testing will play an important part of the exit strategy and determine who can have most freedom (with some limitations remaining) first.

[FactualFrank]

Surely prioritised testing will play an important part of the exit strategy and determine who can have most freedom (with some limitations remaining) first.

The one that tells you if you've already had it, yes. However, this doesn't appear to be accurate enough.

[taio]

The one that tells you if you've already had it, yes. However, this doesn't appear to be accurate enough.

Hopefully an accurate antibody test will be available at huge scale before the time comes to start the exit strategy. Without it people's liberty will continue to be restricted.

[Lowbankclaret]

We didn't learn from them going into this...

That’s a fair assessment.

[TheFamilyCat]

The rules cater for a senseless minority, the vast overwhelming majority of people are all doing the right thing & probably would do with or without instructions, it’s all common sense about distances & avoiding large groups now.

I'm bored.....

Is that the "senseless minority" who go shopping for paint?

[paulatky]

That’s where I have issues with experts, any of us on here can see it’s going to hit his lower figure by Thursday/Friday next week. The upper 20,000 figure still hangs in the balance, as can be seen from the graph shared earlier currently our death rate is not slowing like Italy’s did. Let’s hope that starts today or it’s likely we overshoot the 20,000.

I am sure he knows this but does not want to say it will be between 20-40 k.

Think you are right and 20,000 would be a great result for the first wave but judging by what happened a fortnight ago with the good weather, this weekend and Easter coming up that figure will be far exceeded. There will then be similar numbers for 2nd and 3rd waves,

But looks like we both called this about right 6 weeks ago when the majority were saying “nowt but a bit of flu the elderly get”

[thatdberight]

Think you are right and 20,000 would be a great result for the first wave but judging by what happened a fortnight ago with the good weather, this weekend and Easter coming up that figure will be far exceeded. There will then be similar numbers for 2nd and 3rd waves,

But looks like we both called this about right 6 weeks ago when the majority were saying “nowt but a bit of flu the elderly get”

I don't think there was ever a majority (certainly on here) saying anything like that.

[Lowbankclaret]

The one that tells you if you've already had it, yes. However, this doesn't appear to be accurate enough.

I think our biggest issue is having relied on manufacturing outside of the UK , we appear to be struggling getting above 10,000 test a day. Three weeks later we still hadn’t last time I saw got above the 10,000 a day.
With 66.6 million of us, that’s a lot of testing before we are allowed out.

I agree it’s what we need but it’s going to be a monumental effort to do it by this time next year.

[TVC15]

But looks like we both called this about right 6 weeks ago when the majority were saying “nowt but a bit of flu the elderly get”

Are you serious ?
“Majority” ?.....did literally even one person say that on this board ?